AI’s Energy Crisis: The Power Problem Behind the Tech Boom

AI power Surge

Artificial intelligence is facing a problem that cannot be solved by buying more chips: there may not be enough electricity to power the machines.

AI data centres are expanding rapidly. Training and running models requires enormous computing power, while the facilities themselves need electricity for cooling.

IEA

The International Energy Agency estimates data-centre electricity consumption could reportedly more than double, from about 415 terawatt-hours in 2024 to roughly 945 TWh by 2030. That would make data centres one of the fastest-growing sources of electricity demand.

Old Infrastructure is a big problem

The problem is not necessarily a global shortage of energy. It is a shortage of electricity generation and grid infrastructure in the right places, at the right time.

Data centres can require hundreds of megawatts, yet connecting new generation to the grid can take years. Ageing transmission networks, lengthy planning processes, transformer shortages and grid-connection queues are becoming bottlenecks.

So how is the industry going to fix it?

The short-term answer is likely to be a mixture of natural gas, renewable energy, batteries and existing nuclear plants. Gas can be deployed relatively quickly and provides reliable power, although it increases carbon emissions.

Renewables are cheaper and cleaner but need transmission and storage to provide reliable power. The IEA expects gas and coal together to supply more than 40% of the additional electricity required by data centres through 2030.

Further ahead, nuclear power could become important, including small modular reactors, alongside geothermal energy and improved battery storage. AI companies are also exploring dedicated power plants and locating data centres closer to abundant electricity.

No quick fix

But there is no instant solution. New gas generation and grid upgrades can take several years; major transmission projects can take much longer, while new nuclear facilities can take a decade or more.

The AI revolution is therefore becoming an energy race. Chips may determine how intelligent AI becomes, but electricity may determine how quickly it can grow.

And the effect for you and me?

For the general population, the AI energy crunch could eventually mean higher electricity bills, greater pressure on national power grids and tougher competition for available energy.

As technology companies build enormous data centres, they may compete with households and traditional industries for electricity, particularly in areas where grid capacity is already limited.

Governments could be forced to spend billions upgrading power networks and building new generation, with some of those costs potentially passed on to consumers through taxes or energy bills.

There is also a risk that greater reliance on gas-fired generation could slow efforts to cut emissions.

However, the picture is not entirely negative: investment in new renewable energy, nuclear power, batteries and upgraded grids could ultimately create a more reliable and modern electricity system.

The real question is who pays for the huge infrastructure needed to power the AI boom — and who benefits from it?

Water?

Water could become another major pressure point. AI data centres generate enormous amounts of heat and many rely on water-based cooling systems, meaning their expansion can increase demand for local water supplies.

This could become particularly problematic in areas already facing drought or water shortages, where data centres may be competing with households, agriculture and industry for a limited resource.

Supply issues

The issue is not simply the amount of water consumed, but where and when it is consumed. A data centre built in a water-stressed region could place significant additional pressure on local supplies.

New cooling technologies, including closed-loop systems, liquid cooling and air cooling, can reduce consumption, while locating data centres near plentiful water supplies can also help. These closed systems need cooling too and likely will add to power consumption.

Compete

But, just as with electricity, the rapid expansion of AI means infrastructure and resource planning must catch up — otherwise the technology boom could increasingly compete with the basic resources people depend upon.

With a 20,000% increase over the past decade – has Nvidia’s stock peaked?

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) has experienced remarkable growth over the past decade.

Historical stock price trends

As of 10th May 2024, NVIDIA’s closing stock price stood at: $898.78

As of 10th May 2024, NVIDIA’s closing stock price stood at: $898.78

NVIDIA’s stock reached an all-time high of $950.02 on 25th March 2024. The 52-week high stands at $974.00, which is 9.7% higher than the current share price. Conversely, the 52-week low was $280.46, which is considerably below the current price.

Annual percentage changes

In 2024, the average stock price reached $763.29, marking a year-to-date rise of 79.30%.

In 2023, NVIDIA’s stock price experienced a remarkable surge of 239.02%.

Conversely, in 2022, the stock price witnessed a decline of 50.27%.

Throughout the past decade, the stock has undergone considerable volatility, exhibiting both notable gains and significant losses.

Focus

NVIDIA began as a pioneer in PC graphics and has since expanded its focus to artificial intelligence (AI) solutions. Its GPUs (graphics processing units) are pivotal in AI, high-performance computing (HPC), gaming, and virtual reality (VR) platforms.

The company’s parallel processing capabilities, powered by thousands of computing cores, are vital for executing deep learning algorithms. Additionally, NVIDIA is active in emerging markets such as robotics and autonomous vehicles.

Market position

NVIDIA holds a dominant position in the Data Centre, professional visualization, and gaming markets. Its success is bolstered by strategic partnerships with leading cloud service providers and server vendors.

Financial performance

NVIDIA’s revenue and profit have seen substantial growth over time. Its emphasis on AI and new technologies suggests a strong potential for further expansion. In summary, despite NVIDIA’s stock achieving impressive gains, it is still influenced by market trends and technological changes.

Its peak status hinges on multiple elements such as industry movements, competitive landscape, and upcoming innovations. Investors are advised to meticulously assess these factors when determining the stock’s future prospects.

Considering a long-term investment yet expecting a downturn, it might be prudent to realise some profits now, given the enormous 20,000% surge in stock value.

Take some profit and buy again after a pull-back.

Nvidia stock closes at all-time high

AI chip image

Nvidia stock closes at all-time high, a day before earnings

Shares of Nvidia closed up 2.3% at an all-time high of $504 on Monday 20th November 2023. The record comes ahead of the company’s Q3 results due Tuesday 21st November 2023, when analysts are expecting to see revenue growth of over 170%.

And, if that’s not enough, the forecast for Q4, according to some analysts, is likely to show a number close to 200% growth.

Nvidia is still by far the market leader in GPUs for AI, but high prices and competition are fast becoming an issue.

Can Nvidia continue the AI ride and hold this remarkable market share position?