Anthropic’s Fable: The Mythos-Class Model That Finally Goes Public

Anthropic has taken a decisive step in its race to dominate the frontier‑model market, releasing Claude Fable 5 to the public just two months after its private sibling, Mythos, sent Wall Street into a frenzy.

The move marks the company’s most assertive attempt yet to commercialise Mythos‑level capability while reassuring regulators and investors that safety, not speed, is steering the rollout.

Mythos, unveiled in April 2026, stunned both the cybersecurity world and financial markets with its ability to identify software vulnerabilities at a level previously associated with specialist security tools.

Anthropic restricted access, citing the model’s potential for misuse and limiting deployment to vetted partners under Project Glasswing.

That scarcity — and the model’s almost uncanny diagnostic power — helped fuel a surge in Anthropic’s valuation and contributed to the broader AI‑driven market rally.

Fable 5

Fable 5 is the company’s answer to the question Mythos raised: Can a model this capable ever be released at scale? According to Anthropic, the answer is yes — but only with a redesigned safety architecture.

The company says Fable 5 includes new classifiers and guardrails that automatically block responses in high‑risk domains such as cybersecurity and biological threat modelling.

When a query crosses those boundaries, the system falls back to the safer Claude Opus 4.8, ensuring continuity without exposing dangerous capabilities.

Despite these constraints, Fable 5 is no diluted product. Anthropic claims it outperforms Opus 4.8 by more than 10% on key engineering and knowledge‑work benchmarks, offering enterprises a model that is both more capable and more predictable.

Early customers, the company says, are reporting better return on spend due to higher accuracy and reduced task repetition.

IPO

The timing is strategic. Anthropic has just confidentially filed for its IPO, with revenues ballooning from roughly $10 billion last year to a run rate of $47 billion.

Its latest funding round valued the company at $965 billion, surpassing OpenAI’s March valuation.

With OpenAI and SpaceX/xAI also preparing for blockbuster listings, Anthropic needs a flagship product that demonstrates both capability and commercial maturity.

Fable 5 is that product: a Mythos‑class model built for the real world rather than the lab. By releasing it now — powerful, constrained, and priced at a premium — Anthropic is signalling that the era of frontier‑model scarcity is ending, and the era of industrial‑scale AI deployment has begun.

Markets in Asia continue volatility as Softbank falls 10%

Softbank down 10%

SoftBank’s sharp 10% slide on Wednesday became the defining symbol of a broader rout across Asia’s technology markets, as the region absorbed the full force of Wall Street’s overnight tech sell‑off.

The reversal ended a brief rebound in chipmakers and reignited concerns that valuations across the artificial‑intelligence complex have run too hot for too long.

The immediate pressure on SoftBank stemmed from reports that its attempt to raise at least $6 billion through a margin loan backed by its OpenAI stake had stalled.

That setback landed at a moment when sentiment toward high‑growth tech names was becoming more fragile, amplifying the downside.

Investors rotated out of risk, hitting Japan’s semiconductor ecosystem: Advantest and Renesas both fell more than 3%, while South Korea’s SK Hynix plunged over 8% and Samsung Electronics dropped 7.45%.

Taiwan’s TSMC and Hon Hai were also dragged lower.

A deeper structural worry is now taking hold. Massive AI‑related fundraising — including upcoming listings for SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI — appears to be siphoning capital away from publicly traded tech stocks.

Some investors see this as the early stage of a rotation; others fear it signals overheating. For Japan, one unexpected beneficiary could be defence contractors, with strategists suggesting a shift toward “heavies” as retail traders search for stability.

AI revolution will be “50 times bigger” than the dot‑com boom says Masayoshi Son of Softbank

In essence, Son is reframing SoftBank’s entire identity around AI, portraying it not as a sector but as the next economic infrastructure — a claim that, if realised, would make the dot‑com era look modest by comparison.

SoftBank becomes Japan’s most valuable company as of May 2026.

Scale of transformation: Son argues that artificial intelligence will reshape every industry, dwarfing the internet’s impact in the early 2000s.

SoftBank’s strategy: He reportedly plans to channel the group’s investment focus almost entirely toward AI ventures, positioning SoftBank as a global accelerator for AI‑driven companies.

Vision Fund revival: After years of losses, Masayoshi Son sees AI as the catalyst to reignite the Vision Fund’s profitability, citing rapid advances in generative and autonomous systems.

Economic outlook: He predicts exponential productivity gains and new business models emerging from AI integration, describing it as a “moment of singularity” for technology and finance.

Investor sentiment: Some analysts remain cautious, recalling SoftBank’s volatile history with tech valuations, but acknowledge that Son’s influence could again shape global investment trends.

AI is more than the next dot-com era – it’s the new tech revolution in creation.

Nvidia moves into PCs – All hail Nvidia!

New AI PC chips from Nvidia

Nvidia’s long‑anticipated push into the PC market has finally materialised — and it marks the company’s most aggressive attempt yet to extend its dominance beyond the data centre.

At Computex in Taipei, Jensen Huang unveiled the N1X, an Arm‑based CPU fused with a Blackwell‑class GPU into a new RTX Spark superchip, set to appear this autumn in premium Windows laptops from Microsoft, Dell, HP, ASUS, Lenovo and MSI .

The move is strategically significant. For decades, the PC’s central processor has been the guarded territory of Intel and AMD, with Apple’s M‑series proving the only major Arm‑based disruption.

Nvidia is now entering that arena with a design built explicitly for the age of agentic AI — machines that run multiple AI processes simultaneously, shifting huge volumes of data between GPU and CPU.

Nvidia has argued for months that CPUs have become the bottleneck in modern AI workflows, and the N1X is its answer: a custom Arm design, co‑developed with Microsoft and manufactured on TSMC’s 3‑nanometre process, paired with 128GB of unified memory for high‑bandwidth compute.

Huang framed the launch as a generational reset: “the first completely re‑engineered, reinvented line of PCs in 40 years.” It’s hyperbole with intent.

Nvidia wants to define the AI PC in the same way it defined the AI data centre — not as an incremental upgrade, but as a new category.

More than 30 laptops and 10 desktops are reportedly planned over time, with early models aimed at creators, AI developers and high‑end gamers seeking thin, light machines with workstation‑level capability.

The competitive implications are profound. Arm‑based computing is accelerating across the industry, and Nvidia’s arrival puts direct pressure on Intel and AMD just as both are scrambling to articulate their own AI‑centric roadmaps.

If RTX Spark delivers the performance uplift Nvidia promises, the centre of gravity in the PC market could shift rapidly — from x86 incumbents to a company that has already rewritten the rules of modern computing once.

All hail Nvidia.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite and 100 All Hit Fresh Record Highs as Tech Momentum Intensifies – 26th May 2026

New record all-time highs for U.S. indices

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite surged to new all‑time highs yesterday, extending a rally that shows little sign of fatigue as investors continue to pile into megacap technology and AI‑linked names.

The move higher came despite a patchy run of U.S. macro data, underscoring how dominant earnings strength and sector‑specific momentum have become in driving equity sentiment.

S&P 500: 7,519.12, up 45.65 points (+0.61%) — a record closing high.

S&P 500 26th May 2026

The S&P 500’s climb was supported by broad participation across technology, communication services and consumer discretionary, with investors rewarding companies delivering consistent revenue and margin expansion.

Market breadth has improved modestly in recent weeks, helping reinforce confidence that the rally is not solely dependent on a handful of giants.

Nasdaq Composite: 26,656.18, up 312.21 points (+1.19%) — also a record closing high, with an intraday peak of 26,725.29.

Nasdaq Composite 26th May 2026

Nasdaq‑100 (NDX): 30,001.32Up: +519.68 points (+1.76%) Intraday high: 30,044.49 – a new record high.

Nasdaq 100 26th May 2026

The Nasdaq once again outperformed, propelled by heavy demand for semiconductor, cloud and AI infrastructure stocks.

Upbeat guidance from several major tech firms earlier this month has strengthened the view that the sector’s earnings cycle still has room to run.

While valuations remain elevated and leave the market exposed to any negative surprise, investors have so far shown little inclination to rotate away from the winners.

Yesterday’s triple records highlight the market’s conviction that the AI‑driven profit cycle remains intact.

What would happen to the S&P 500 should one or some or all of the Magnificent Seven companies fail to deliver their AI promise – even just a little?

Magnificent Seven and the S&P 500

If the Magnificent Seven were to fall short of the AI and tech transformation investors have priced in, the S&P 500 would face one of the most severe valuation resets in its modern history.

With the group now representing roughly one‑third of the entire index, any collective disappointment would ripple far beyond technology and into every sector tied to index‑tracking capital.

The concentration problem

The S&P 500 has never been this top‑heavy. Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Tesla have become the gravitational centre of global equity markets.

Their valuations are not merely high; they are explicitly built on the assumption of future dominance in AI infrastructure, cloud, automation, consumer platforms and next‑generation hardware.

If that future fails to materialise — or even arrives more slowly than expected — the index’s structure becomes a liability. A small number of companies would be responsible for a large portion of the downside.

Scenario 1: One or two companies stumble

If a single member — say Apple or Tesla — fails to deliver, the impact is sharp but contained. The S&P 500 would likely see a 3–5% drawdown, driven by index‑weight mechanics rather than systemic panic.

Investors have already priced in uneven performance within the group, and the remaining leaders would absorb some of the shock.

The more dangerous case is if one of the AI‑infrastructure engines — Microsoft, Nvidia or Alphabet — disappoints. These companies sit at the centre of the capex cycle.

A miss on AI demand, margins or utilisation would trigger a broader reassessment of the entire AI investment thesis.

Scenario 2: Several of the Seven disappoint simultaneously

A coordinated earnings miss or guidance reset across multiple names would force a valuation compression across the entire index. Because passive flows mechanically overweight the winners, a reversal would unwind years of momentum.

A realistic outcome:

  • S&P 500 correction of 10–15%
  • Volatility spike as systematic strategies de‑risk
  • Rotation into defensives and energy, sectors less dependent on AI narratives
  • Credit spreads widen, reflecting lower confidence in tech‑driven earnings growth

This is the point where the market stops treating AI as inevitability and starts treating it as a risk.

Scenario 3: The AI thesis breaks entirely

If all seven fail to deliver the productivity, revenue and margin expansion implied by their valuations, the S&P 500 would undergo a structural reset.

The index could fall 20% or more, not because of recessionary conditions but because the market would need to rebuild a new leadership structure from scratch.

The last time leadership collapsed this dramatically was the dot‑com unwind — but today’s concentration is far higher, and passive ownership is far larger. but AI has far more upfront utility, doesn’t it?

The core truth

The S&P 500’s fate is now inseparable from the Magnificent Seven. If they deliver, the index continues to levitate. If they falter, the entire market must reprice what growth, innovation and leadership look like in the post‑AI era.

When the Magnificent Seven Slip: Who Rises Next?

If the AI tide recedes, the market’s leadership will not vanish — it will rotate. The beneficiaries will be the sectors that have quietly compounded earnings while the spotlight stayed fixed on Silicon Valley.

1. Energy and Utilities With AI‑driven data centres consuming vast power, any slowdown in tech expansion would ease pressure on grids and shift investor focus back to traditional producers. Dividend yields and defensive cash flow would regain appeal as growth multiples compress.

2. Industrials and Infrastructure A retreat from speculative tech would redirect capital toward physical productivity — logistics, construction, and manufacturing modernisation. Firms tied to electrification, rail, and defence could see valuation upgrades as investors seek real‑world output rather than digital promise.

3. Healthcare and Pharmaceuticals The sector’s secular growth and pricing power make it a natural refuge when tech falters. Biotech innovation continues independently of AI cycles, and ageing demographics ensure steady demand.

4. Financials Banks and insurers benefit from higher rates and wider spreads when tech valuations deflate. A correction in mega‑caps could even restore balance to passive indices, giving financials a larger share of inflows.

5. Consumer Staples In a post‑AI correction, investors rediscover the comfort of predictable earnings. Food, beverages, and household goods regain their defensive premium as volatility rises.

The narrative shift: The market would move from promise to proof — from speculative AI multiples to tangible earnings. The S&P 500 would not collapse; it would evolve. Leadership would pass from code to concrete, from algorithms to assets.

Key Points — S&P 500 Risk if the Magnificent Seven Falter

1. The S&P 500 is structurally dependent on seven companies

  • The Magnificent Seven now make up ~35% of the entire index’s market cap.
  • This is the highest concentration in modern history, making the S&P 500 behave more like a mega‑cap tech fund than a diversified benchmark.

2. Their valuations are priced for an AI‑driven future

  • Current multiples assume sustained exponential AI demand, cloud capex growth, and productivity gains.
  • Any slowdown in AI adoption, monetisation, or enterprise rollout would force a valuation reset across the leaders.

3. A single-company stumble is absorbable — but still painful

  • If one member (e.g., Apple or Tesla) disappoints, the index likely sees a 3–5% pullback.
  • The remaining leaders can offset the drag, but the psychological impact is non‑trivial.

4. A slowdown in the AI infrastructure core is the real risk

  • Microsoft, Nvidia and Alphabet sit at the centre of the global AI capex cycle.
  • If cloud AI demand proves slower or less profitable than expected, the S&P 500 could face a 10–15% correction as earnings expectations compress.

5. A broad failure of the AI thesis triggers a structural reset

  • If AI productivity gains don’t materialise, or margins erode under cost/regulatory pressure, the index could fall 20%+.
  • This would resemble a leadership collapse, not a normal recession — similar to the dot‑com unwind but with far more concentration and passive capital tied to the winners.

6. Passive flows amplify both upside and downside

  • With so much capital in index funds, any derating of the top names mechanically drags the entire index lower.
  • The S&P 500’s fate is now mathematically tethered to the Magnificent Seven.

7. The uncomfortable conclusion

  • The S&P 500’s trajectory is inseparable from the success or failure of the AI narrative.
  • If the Magnificent Seven deliver, the index continues to defy gravity.
  • If they falter, the market must rebuild a new leadership structure from scratch.

The S&P 500 is fundamentally in the danger zone – be careful!

Nvidia’s latest figures continue to shape AI mood – May 2026

Nvidia reports May 2026

Nvidia’s latest figures have once again reshaped the mood of global markets, reinforcing its position as the defining force of the AI investment cycle.

The company reported another quarter of exceptional revenue growth, driven by unrelenting demand for its data‑centre GPUs and the rapid rollout of next‑generation Blackwell systems.

Elevated expectations

Sales and profits both exceeded already‑elevated expectations, underscoring how deeply Nvidia’s hardware is now embedded in cloud infrastructure, sovereign AI projects, and enterprise adoption.

The immediate market reaction was sharp. Nvidia’s shares jumped at the open, extending a rally that has already made it the world’s most valuable listed company.

The surge briefly pushed its valuation further into uncharted territory, with traders describing the stock as both “unstoppable” and “structurally bid” due to long‑term AI spending commitments from hyperscalers.

Options activity spiked as investors positioned for continued volatility, while short sellers once again retreated.

Broad impact

The broader market felt the impact too. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both moved higher, lifted by the gravitational pull of Nvidia’s results and renewed confidence in the AI supply chain.

Semiconductor peers such as AMD, Broadcom, and TSMC saw sympathetic gains, while AI‑exposed software names rallied on expectations of stronger infrastructure investment.

Yet the enthusiasm comes with a familiar caveat. Nvidia’s dominance now exerts an outsized influence on index performance, and any future stumble—whether from supply constraints, competitive pressure, or a slowdown in AI capex—would reverberate across global markets.

For now, though, the company remains the engine powering the bull case for technology and all AI follows.

What Happens to the S&P 500 if the Magnificent Seven Fail to Deliver on AI?

Mag 7 holding up the S&P 500 to the tune of almost 35% value of the entire S&P 500

The S&P 500 has never been so dependent on so few companies. The Magnificent Seven — Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Tesla — now account for roughly one‑third of the entire index’s value – that’s 33% of the whole S&P 500 vlauation.

Their dominance is not simply a reflection of current earnings power; it is a collective bet on an AI‑centred future that investors assume will transform productivity, reshape industries and justify valuations that stretch far beyond historical norms.

If one, several, or all of these companies fail to deliver the AI revolution that markets have priced in, the consequences for the S&P 500 would be immediate, structural and potentially severe.

Mild

The mildest scenario is a stumble by one or two members. If Apple’s device strategy falters, or Tesla’s autonomy narrative weakens further for instance, the index absorbs the shock.

A 3–5% pullback is plausible, driven by mechanical index weighting rather than systemic fear. Investors already expect uneven performance within the group, and the remaining leaders could offset the disappointment.

Major

The more destabilising scenario is a collective slowdown among the AI infrastructure leaders – Microsoft, Nvidia and Alphabet. These firms sit at the centre of the global capex cycle.

If cloud AI demand proves slower, less profitable or more niche than expected, the market would be forced to reassess the entire economic promise of generative AI.

In this case, the S&P 500 could see a 10–15% correction as valuations compress, volatility spikes and passive flows unwind years of momentum.

Dramatic

The most dramatic outcome is a broad failure of the AI ‘sector’ itself. If the promised productivity gains do not materialise, if enterprise adoption stalls, or if regulatory and cost pressures erode margins, the S&P 500 would face a structural reset.

With a third of the index priced for exponential growth, a collective disappointment could trigger a decline of 20% or more.

This would not resemble a cyclical recession; it would be a leadership collapse similar to the dot‑com unwind, but with far greater concentration and far more passive capital tied to the winners.

The uncomfortable truth is that the S&P 500’s trajectory is now inseparable from the Magnificent Seven. If they deliver, the index continues to defy gravity. If they falter, the market must rebuild a new narrative — and a new set of leaders — from the ground up.

If the Magnificent Seven Lose Their Grip, Who Rises Next?

For years, the S&P 500 has been defined by the gravitational pull of the Magnificent Seven. Their dominance has shaped index performance, investor psychology and the entire narrative arc of global markets.

If these companies lose momentum — whether through slower AI adoption, regulatory pressure, margin compression or simple over‑expectation — leadership will not disappear.

It will rotate. And the beneficiaries are already hiding in plain sight.

Alternative investment to AI

The first and most obvious winners would be Energy and Utilities. As AI enthusiasm cools, investors tend to rediscover the appeal of tangible cash flow. Energy companies, with their dividends and pricing power, become natural refuges.

Utilities, often dismissed as dull, regain relevance as defensive anchors in a more volatile market. If AI‑driven data‑centre demand slows, the sector’s cost pressures ease, improving margins.

Next in line are Industrials and Infrastructure. A retreat from speculative tech would likely redirect capital towards physical productivity — logistics, construction, defence, electrification and manufacturing modernisation.

These sectors have been quietly compounding earnings while Silicon Valley has monopolised attention. If the market shifts from promise to proof, industrials become the new growth story.

Healthcare and Pharmaceuticals would also rise. Their earnings cycles are largely independent of AI hype, driven instead by demographics, innovation and regulatory frameworks. When tech stumbles, healthcare’s stability becomes a premium rather than an afterthought.

Biotech, in particular, benefits from capital rotation when investors seek uncorrelated growth.

Financials stand to gain as well. A correction in mega‑cap tech would rebalance passive flows, giving banks and insurers a larger share of index‑tracking capital. Higher rates and wider spreads already support the sector; a shift away from tech simply amplifies the effect.

Finally, Consumer Staples would reassert themselves. In a market recalibrating after an AI disappointment, investors gravitate towards predictable earnings. Food, beverages and household goods regain their defensive premium as volatility rises.

The broader truth is simple: if the Magnificent Seven falter, the S&P 500 does not collapse — it redistributes. Leadership moves from code to concrete, from speculative multiples to operational reality. The market has always found new champions. It will again.

Big Tech’s Talent Exodus Fuels a New Wave of AI Startups

Big Tech AI Exodus

A quiet but decisive shift is under way in the global AI race: some of the most accomplished researchers at Meta, Google, OpenAI and other frontier labs are walking out of the biggest companies in the sector to build their own.

Trend

The trend has accelerated sharply over the past year, with new ventures raising extraordinary sums within months of being founded, as investors bet that smaller teams can move faster than the giants they left behind.

The motivations are remarkably consistent. Researchers say that the commercial pressure inside the largest AI labs has narrowed the scope of what they are allowed to explore.

Rush

With Big Tech locked into a high‑stakes contest to release ever‑larger models on tight schedules, entire areas of research — from new architectures to interpretability and agentic systems — are being deprioritised.

That creates an opening for smaller firms that can pursue ideas too experimental or too slow‑burn for corporate roadmaps.

Investors

Investors have responded with enthusiasm. Former Google DeepMind scientist David Silver secured a record $1.1 billion seed round for his new company, Ineffable Intelligence, while other ex‑DeepMind and ex‑Meta researchers are raising similar sums for ventures focused on reinforcement learning, continuous‑learning systems and autonomous labs.

In total, AI startups founded since early 2025 have already attracted nearly $19 billion in funding this year, putting them on track to surpass last year’s total.

Independence

Founders argue that independence gives them both speed and neutrality. Chip‑design startup Ricursive Intelligence, for example, says customers are more willing to trust a standalone company than a Big Tech competitor with its own hardware ambitions.

Many of these startups are also rebuilding their old teams, hiring colleagues from the very companies they left.

The result is a new competitive dynamic: Big Tech still dominates the AI landscape, but the frontier of innovation is increasingly being pushed by smaller, highly focused labs that believe they can out‑pace the giants – and with lower investment too.

DeepSeek releases preview of Open Source V4 AI Model

DeepSeek V4 AI

DeepSeek’s newly released V4 model marks a significant step forward in open‑source AI, combining long‑context capability with major architectural upgrades.

DeepSeek V4 arrives as a preview release, offering two variants — V4‑Pro and V4‑Flash — both designed to push the boundaries of efficiency and reasoning performance.

The headline feature is the one‑million‑token context window, enabling the model to process and retain far larger bodies of information than previous generations.

Positioning

This positions V4 as a strong contender in tasks requiring extended reasoning, research support, and complex agentic workflows.

The V4 series introduces a refined Hybrid Attention Architecture, combining compressed sparse and heavily compressed attention mechanisms to dramatically reduce computational overhead.

DeepSeek claims this approach cuts inference FLOPs and KV‑cache requirements to a fraction of those seen in earlier models, making long‑context operation more practical and cost‑effective.

V4‑Pro, the flagship model, includes a maximum reasoning‑effort mode, which the company says significantly advances open‑source reasoning performance and narrows the gap with leading closed‑source systems.

Meanwhile, V4‑Flash offers a more economical, faster alternative while retaining strong capability across everyday tasks.

Accelerating AI ambition

The release underscores China’s accelerating AI ambitions. DeepSeek’s earlier R1 model shook global markets with its low‑cost, high‑performance profile, and V4 continues that trajectory — now optimised for domestic chips and supported by growing local hardware ecosystems.

With open‑source availability and aggressive efficiency gains, DeepSeek V4 strengthens the company’s position as one of the most closely watched challengers in the global AI race.

And it’s far cheaper than its peers and not so power hungry either.

TSMC first-quarter profit rises 58%, beats estimates as AI demand holds steady

TSMC Profit Increase

TSMC’s 58% surge in first‑quarter profit is the clearest sign yet that the AI boom is no longer a cyclical uplift but a structural shift reshaping the entire semiconductor industry.

The Taiwanese chipmaker delivered record earnings, comfortably beating analyst expectations, as demand for advanced processors continued to outstrip supply.

Net income reportedly reached NT$572.48 billion, marking a fourth consecutive quarter of record profits, while revenue climbed to NT$1.134 trillion, driven overwhelmingly by high‑performance computing and AI‑related orders.

What stands out is the composition of that growth. Roughly three‑quarters of TSMC’s wafer revenue reportedly came from advanced nodes, with 3‑nanometre chips alone accounting for a quarter of shipments.

Nvidia

Nvidia has now overtaken Apple as TSMC’s largest customer, underscoring how AI accelerators have become the industry’s most valuable real estate.

TSMC’s executives described AI demand as “extremely robust”, with customers signalling multi‑year achievements rather than the usual stop‑start ordering cycle.

The company also moved to reassure investors over supply‑chain risks linked to the Middle East conflict, saying it has diversified sources for critical gases such as helium and hydrogen.

With capacity running hot and capital spending set to hit the top end of guidance, TSMC is positioning itself as the indispensable chipmaker in the AI era.

ASML raises 2026 guidance as AI chips demand remains strong

ASML guidance for 2026 raised

ASML’s decision to raise its 2026 guidance underlines a simple reality: demand for advanced AI chips is not easing, and the world’s most important semiconductor equipment maker remains at the centre of that surge.

The company signalled stronger-than-expected orders for its extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and next‑generation high‑NA systems, driven by chipmakers racing to expand capacity for AI accelerators, data‑centre processors and cutting‑edge logic nodes.

Bottleneck

The upgrade matters because ASML sits at the bottleneck of global chip production. Only a handful of firms can even buy its most advanced machines, and those firms – chiefly TSMC, Intel and Samsung – are all scaling up AI‑focused manufacturing.

Their capital expenditure plans have held firm despite broader economic uncertainty, suggesting that AI infrastructure is becoming a non‑discretionary investment rather than a cyclical one.

Two forces are driving the momentum. First, hyperscalers continue to pour billions into AI clusters, creating sustained demand for the most advanced lithography tools.

Long-term lock in

Second, geopolitical pressure to secure domestic chip capacity is pushing governments and manufacturers to lock in long‑term equipment orders.

ASML’s raised outlook reinforces the sense that the semiconductor cycle is diverging: consumer electronics remain patchy, but AI‑related manufacturing is entering a multi‑year expansion.

The key question now is whether supply can keep pace with the ambition of its customers.

TSMC’s 35% Revenue Surge Signals the New Centre of Gravity in Global Tech

TSMC revenue surges

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) has delivered a striking 35% year‑on‑year jump in first‑quarter revenue, reaching a record NT$1.13 trillion.

The result underscores just how dramatically the centre of gravity in global technology has shifted towards advanced semiconductor manufacturing, with artificial intelligence now the defining force behind industry growth.

Relentless AI demand

TSMC’s performance is being powered by relentless demand for cutting‑edge chips from major clients such as Apple and Nvidia.

As AI infrastructure spending accelerates worldwide, the company has become one of the few manufacturers capable of producing the most sophisticated processors required for training and running large‑scale models.

March alone saw revenue climb more than 45%, highlighting the strength and urgency of this demand.

Ambition

Analysts suggest TSMC is on track to exceed its already ambitious 30% annual growth target, helped not only by volume but also by reported price increases for its most advanced nodes.

Even as smartphone and PC markets remain uneven, AI‑related orders are more than compensating.

With more companies—from hyperscalers to AI start‑ups—designing their own chips, TSMC’s strategic position looks increasingly unassailable.

Upcoming earnings and ASML’s results next week will offer further clues about the momentum behind the semiconductor sector’s AI‑driven boom.

Meta unveils new AI model in AI catchup

Meta's Muse Spark Agentic AI

Meta has unveiled Muse Spark, its first major artificial intelligence model since the company overhauled its AI strategy in response to the underwhelming reception of its previous Llama 4 models.

Developed by the newly formed Meta Superintelligence Labs under the leadership of Alexandr Wang, Muse Spark represents a deliberate shift towards smaller, faster, and more capable systems designed to compete directly with Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic.

Foundation

Muse Spark is positioned as the foundation of a new family of models internally known as Avocado. Meta reportedly describes it as “small and fast by design”, yet able to reason through complex questions in science, maths, and health — a notable claim given the company’s recent struggles to keep pace with rivals.

Early evaluations suggest the model performs competitively in language and visual understanding, though it still trails in coding and abstract reasoning.

Crucially, Muse Spark is deeply integrated into Meta’s ecosystem. It already powers the Meta AI app and website and will soon replace Llama across WhatsApp, Instagram, Facebook, Messenger, and Meta’s smart glasses.

Integrated

This rollout signals Meta’s intention to embed AI more tightly into everyday user interactions, from search and recommendations to multimodal tasks such as analysing photos or comparing products.

The company is also experimenting with new revenue streams by offering a private API preview to select partners — a departure from its previous open‑source approach.

Whether this shift will alienate developers who embraced the openness of Llama remains to be seen.

Meta frames Muse Spark as an early step toward “personal superintelligence”, an assistant that can understand the world alongside the user rather than waiting for typed instructions.

It’s an ambitious vision — and one that will be tested as the model expands globally and faces scrutiny over privacy, safety, and real‑world performance.

Oracle Cuts Deep as AI Pivot Forces a Reckoning

Oracle's AI Axe

Oracle is swinging hard at its own workforce as the company races to reposition itself as an AI‑infrastructure contender.

Thousands of roles are being eliminated, a drastic move that reflects the sheer financial pressure of trying to keep up with hyperscale rivals in the most capital‑intensive tech shift in decades.

The company’s share price has slumped 25% this year, with investors increasingly uneasy about soaring data‑centre spending and the heavy debt required to fund it.

Oracle has already raised $50 billion to bankroll new GPU‑ready facilities, but unlike Amazon or Microsoft, it lacks the cushion of vast cloud scale.

The result: a balance sheet under strain and a leadership team forced into tough decisions.

Future

Oracle’s remaining performance obligations have ballooned to more than half a trillion dollars, fuelled by major AI partnerships including a huge deal with OpenAI.

But those future revenues don’t solve today’s cash‑flow squeeze. Analysts estimate that cutting 20,000 to 30,000 jobs could free up as much as $10 billion — enough to keep the AI build‑out moving without further rattling the markets.

Oracle is betting that a leaner organisation now will buy it the runway to compete later. The question is whether the cuts arrive in time to match the speed of the AI race.

Stock rises.

OpenClaw: The Fastest‑Growing AI Agent Is Reshaping Tech, Security, and Global Adoption

OpenClaw AI agents

OpenClaw has rapidly become one of the most influential developments in artificial intelligence, evolving from a small open‑source experiment into a global phenomenon reshaping how people interact with computers.

Launched in January 2026, the platform allows users to run autonomous AI agents locally on their own machines, giving them the power to organise files, write code, browse the web, and automate everyday digital tasks without relying on cloud services.

This local‑first design has been central to its explosive growth — and to the concerns now emerging around it.

One of the most striking cultural shifts has taken place in China, where OpenClaw has become a mainstream sensation.

AI Lobsters

Users refer to their agents as “AI lobsters,” a playful nod to the platform’s crustacean branding. Retirees, students, and professionals alike have begun “raising” these lobsters to help manage knowledge, streamline work, and perform practical tasks that traditional chatbots struggle with.

The trend has grown so quickly that crowds have gathered outside major tech offices in Beijing to install the software together, turning OpenClaw into a genuine grassroots movement.

This surge in popularity has also caught the attention of global markets. Chinese AI‑related stocks have risen sharply following comments from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, who described OpenClaw as “the next ChatGPT,” signalling its potential to redefine the agentic AI landscape.

Security

Companies building self‑evolving agents and cloud infrastructure around OpenClaw have seen double‑digit gains as investors position themselves for what appears to be the next major AI wave.

Yet OpenClaw’s power has also raised red flags. Because the agent runs locally and can control a user’s computer, enterprise IT teams have struggled to manage the security implications.

The platform’s ability to act autonomously — reading files, sending messages, and interacting with applications — has created a need for stronger guardrails, especially in corporate environments.

Nvidia’s NemoClaw

Nvidia has stepped in with NemoClaw, a new enterprise‑grade stack that adds privacy controls, security infrastructure, and vetted local models to OpenClaw through a single‑command installation.

The goal is to make autonomous agents more trustworthy and scalable without undermining the open‑source ethos that made OpenClaw successful.

OpenClaw’s own development continues at pace. The latest stable release, v2026.3.13, includes fixes for session handling, improved browser‑control mechanisms, and a shift away from legacy Chrome extensions towards direct attachment to existing browser sessions — a move designed to make agent operations safer and more reliable.

The future

In just a few months, OpenClaw has transformed from a niche project into a global force, driving cultural trends, market movements, and enterprise innovation.

Its trajectory suggests that autonomous, locally run agents may soon become a standard part of everyday computing — and the race to shape that future has only just begun.

Pentagon CTO warns Claude could ‘pollute’ defence supply chain

Anthropic and the U.S. military

The Pentagon’s Chief Technology Officer, Emil Michael, has apparently ignited a fresh debate over the role of commercial artificial intelligence in national security, arguing that Anthropic’s Claude models could “pollute” the U.S. defence supply chain.

I notice his comments came in an interview with CNBC, offer the clearest rationale yet for the Department of Defense’s decision to designate Anthropic as a supply chain risk — an extraordinary step previously reserved for foreign adversaries.

It seems the opinion is that Claude’s “policy preferences”, embedded through Anthropic’s constitutional training approach, create an unacceptable misalignment with the Pentagon’s operational needs.

Risk

It was reported that any AI system whose underlying values diverge from defence priorities risks producing ineffective outputs, whether in decision‑support tools, equipment design, or battlefield logistics.

We can’t have a company that has a different policy preference baked into the model… pollute the supply chain so our warfighters are getting ineffective weapons [and] ineffective protection,” he was reported to have said.

Anthropic has responded forcefully, suing the Trump administration and calling the designation “unprecedented and unlawful”.

The company argues that the move jeopardises hundreds of millions of dollars in contracts and mischaracterises the nature of its technology.

Claude in the ecosystem?

It also notes that Claude continues to be used within parts of the U.S. military ecosystem, including by major defence contractors such as Palantir, underscoring the practical difficulty of an immediate transition away from its models.

Michael insists the decision is not punitive and emphasises that only a small fraction of Anthropic’s business comes from government work.

Nonetheless, the designation forces contractors to certify they are not using Claude in Pentagon‑related projects, setting up a potentially lengthy and politically charged dispute over how value‑aligned AI must be before it is allowed anywhere near defence infrastructure.

The episode highlights a broader tension: as AI systems become more opinionated by design, governments are increasingly asking whether “alignment” is a technical question — or a geopolitical one.

IBM Shares Slide as AI Threatens Its Legacy Stronghold

AI and IBM

When artificial intelligence first ignited investor enthusiasm, it lifted almost every major technology stock.

The narrative was simple: AI would transform industries, boost productivity and unlock vast new revenue streams.

Yet as the cycle matures, markets are becoming more selective. In recent weeks, shares of IBM have drifted lower, illustrating how the ‘AI effect’ can cut both ways.

At first glance, IBM should be a prime beneficiary. The company has spent years repositioning itself around hybrid cloud infrastructure, data analytics and enterprise AI solutions.

Its Watson platform has been refreshed with generative AI tools designed to automate customer service, streamline software development and enhance business decision-making. Management has repeatedly emphasised AI as a core growth engine.

Market Expectations

However, the market’s expectations have shifted. Investors are increasingly rewarding companies that sit at the very heart of AI infrastructure — those supplying advanced semiconductors, high-performance computing capacity and hyperscale cloud services.

These businesses are reporting visible surges in AI-related demand, often accompanied by sharp revenue acceleration and expanding margins.

By contrast, IBM’s AI exposure is embedded within broader consulting and software operations, making its growth trajectory appear steadier rather than explosive.

This distinction matters in a momentum-driven environment. When earnings updates fail to deliver dramatic upside surprises, shares can quickly lose favour.

Less AI Effect

IBM’s results have shown progress in software and recurring revenue, but they have not reflected the kind of dramatic AI-driven uplift seen elsewhere in the sector. For some investors, that raises questions about competitive positioning and pricing power.

There is also a perception issue. Despite its reinvention efforts, IBM still carries the legacy image of a mature technology conglomerate rather than a cutting-edge AI disruptor.

In a market captivated by bold innovation stories, narrative can influence valuation just as much as fundamentals.

If capital flows concentrate in a handful of high-growth AI names, diversified players may struggle to keep pace in share price performance.

AI Tension

Yet the sell-off may also highlight a deeper tension within the AI theme. Enterprise adoption of AI tools tends to be gradual, cautious and closely tied to measurable productivity gains.

IBM’s strategy is built around long-term integration rather than short-term hype. While that approach may lack immediate fireworks, it could prove more durable as corporate clients prioritise reliability, governance and cost control.

For now, though, the AI effect is amplifying investor discrimination. In a market eager for rapid transformation, IBM’s more measured path has translated into weaker share performance — a reminder that not all AI exposure is valued equally.

Further discussion

IBM has found itself on the wrong side of the artificial intelligence boom, with its shares tumbling more than 13% after Anthropic unveiled a new capability that directly targets one of the company’s most enduring revenue pillars: COBOL modernisation.

The sell‑off reflects a broader market anxiety that AI is beginning to erode long‑protected niches in enterprise technology, and IBM has become the latest high‑profile casualty.

For decades, IBM has been synonymous with mainframe computing and the maintenance of vast COBOL‑based systems that underpin global finance, government services, airlines, and retail transactions.

These systems are notoriously complex, expensive to update, and dependent on a shrinking pool of specialist developers.

Premium Brand

That scarcity has long worked in IBM’s favour, allowing it to charge a premium for modernisation and support.

Anthropic’s announcement threatens to upend that equation. Its Claude Code tool, the company claims, can automate the most time‑consuming and costly parts of understanding and restructuring legacy COBOL environments.

Tasks that once required teams of analysts months to complete—mapping dependencies, documenting workflows, identifying risks—can now be accelerated dramatically through AI‑driven analysis.

The implication is clear: modernising legacy systems may no longer require the same level of human expertise, nor the same level of spending.

Investors reacted swiftly. IBM’s share price fell to $223.35, extending a year‑to‑date decline of more than 24% – recovering later to $229.39

IBM one-year chart as of 24th February 2026

The drop reflects not only concerns about lost revenue, but also the fear that IBM’s competitive moat—built on decades of institutional reliance on COBOL—may be eroding faster than expected.

The timing has amplified market jitters. Only days earlier, cybersecurity stocks were hit by another Anthropic announcement: Claude Code Security, a feature designed to scan codebases for vulnerabilities.

AI Mood Logic

The rapid expansion of AI into specialised technical domains has created a ‘sell first, ask questions later’ mood across the market, with investors increasingly wary of companies whose business models depend on labour‑intensive or legacy‑bound processes.

For IBM, the challenge now is to demonstrate that it can harness AI rather than be displaced by it.

The company has invested heavily in its own AI initiatives, but the latest market reaction suggests investors are unconvinced that these efforts will offset the threat to its traditional strongholds.

The AI revolution is reshaping the technology landscape at speed. IBM’s sharp decline is a reminder that even the industry’s oldest giants are not insulated from disruption—and that the next wave of AI competition may hit the most established players hardest.

But remember, this is IBM we are talking about.

Explainer

What is COBOL?

COBOL is an old but remarkably durable programming language created in the late 1950s to run business, finance, and government systems, and it’s still powering much of the world’s banking and administrative infrastructure today.

It was designed to read almost like plain English, making it easier for non‑technical managers to understand, and its stability means many core systems have never been replaced.

China’s AI Tech Surge Puts Pressure on America’s AI Dominance

Robots line up for AI battle

For much of the modern AI era, the United States has held a clear advantage in frontier research, compute infrastructure, and commercial deployment.

Silicon Valley’s combination of elite talent, abundant capital, and world‑class semiconductor design created an environment where breakthroughs could scale at extraordinary speed.

Challenge

That dominance, however, is no longer uncontested. China’s accelerating push into advanced AI is reshaping the global technological landscape and posing the most credible challenge yet to America’s leadership.

China’s strategy is not built on a single breakthrough but on coordinated national effort. Beijing has spent years aligning universities, state‑backed funds, and private‑sector giants around a shared objective: achieving self‑sufficiency in critical technologies and becoming a global AI powerhouse.

Competitive

Companies such as Huawei, Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent are now producing increasingly competitive large models, while domestic chipmakers are narrowing the performance gap with U.S. suppliers despite export controls.

Crucially, China’s AI ecosystem benefits from scale and cost advantages that the U.S. cannot easily replicate.

Massive data availability, lower energy costs, and vertically integrated supply chains allow Chinese firms to train and deploy models at prices that appeal to developing economies.

For many countries, especially those already reliant on Chinese infrastructure, adopting a Chinese AI stack is becoming a pragmatic economic choice rather than a geopolitical statement.

Investment returns?

This shift is occurring just as U.S. tech giants embark on unprecedented spending cycles. Hyperscalers are pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into data centres, specialised chips, and model training.

The U.S. and its massive BIG Tech Spending Spree – Feeding the AI Habit

While this investment underscores America’s determination to stay ahead, it also raises questions about sustainability.

Investors are increasingly asking whether such vast capital expenditure can deliver long‑term returns in a world where China is offering cheaper, rapidly improving alternatives.

The emerging reality is not one of immediate American decline but of a genuinely multipolar AI landscape. The U.S. still leads in foundational research, top‑tier talent, and cutting‑edge semiconductor design.

Yet China’s rise represents a powerful economy that has mounted a serious challenge to the technological frontier.

The global AI race is no longer defined by a single centre of gravity. Instead, two competing ecosystems — one market‑driven, one reportedly state‑directed — are shaping the future of intelligent technology.

The outcome will influence not only economic power but the digital architecture of much of the world.

Alphabet’s 100‑Year Bond: Ambition, Appetite and Anxiety in the AI Debt Boom

Alphabet's 100-year Sterling Bond for pensions

Alphabet’s decision to issue a 100-year sterling bond has captured the attention of global markets, not only because of its rarity but also because of what it signals about the escalating competition in artificial intelligence.

100 year sterling bond

A century-long bond denominated in pounds is an extraordinary financing move, particularly for a technology company.

It reflects both investor confidence in Alphabet’s long-term prospects and the scale of capital now required to compete in the AI era.

On the surface, the benefits are clear. Locking in funding for 100 years at today’s rates provides financial certainty. Alphabet can secure vast sums of capital without facing refinancing risk for generations.

In an industry defined by rapid change and enormous upfront costs — from data centres and semiconductor procurement to specialised AI chips and energy infrastructure — patient capital is invaluable.

Sterling

The sterling denomination also diversifies Alphabet’s funding base beyond U.S. dollar markets, potentially appealing to European institutional investors seeking stable, long-duration assets.

The bond may also be interpreted as a strategic signal. By committing to long-term financing, Alphabet demonstrates confidence in its ability to generate cash flows well into the next century.

It reinforces the company’s image as a durable, infrastructure-like enterprise rather than a volatile technology stock.

For investors such as pension funds and insurers, a 100-year instrument from a highly rated issuer can offer predictable returns in a world where long-term yield is scarce.

Cyclical

However, the move is not without shortcomings. Committing to fixed debt obligations over such an extended horizon reduces flexibility. While Alphabet currently enjoys strong balance sheet metrics, the technology sector is notoriously cyclical.

A century is an eternity in innovation terms. Business models, regulatory frameworks and geopolitical dynamics may shift dramatically.

Future generations of management will inherit the obligation, regardless of whether today’s AI investments deliver the expected returns.

More broadly, the bond feeds concern about a debt-fuelled AI arms race. As technology giants pour tens of billions into AI research, chip design and cloud infrastructure, borrowing is becoming an increasingly prominent tool.

If rivals respond with similar long-dated issuance, the sector’s leverage could rise meaningfully. In a downturn or if AI monetisation disappoints; heavy debt burdens could amplify financial strain.

Ultimately, Alphabet’s 100-year sterling bond embodies both ambition and risk. It underlines the immense capital demands of the AI revolution while raising questions about whether today’s competitive fervour is encouraging companies to stretch their balance sheets too far in pursuit of technological dominance.

Systemic anxiety

The deeper anxiety is systemic. With Oracle, Amazon, Microsoft and others also scaling up borrowing, total tech‑sector issuance is projected to hit $3 trillion over five years.

Some analysts warn this resembles a late‑cycle credit boom, where investors chase thematic excitement rather than sober fundamentals.

Alphabet’s century bond may be a masterstroke of timing — or a marker of excess.

Either way, it crystallises the tension at the heart of the AI revolution: extraordinary promise, financed by extraordinary debt.

Why a Sterling Bond?

Alphabet issued its 100‑year sterling bond to tap deep UK demand for ultra‑long‑dated assets, especially from pension funds seeking to match long‑term liabilities.

The sterling market offered strong appetite, with orders reportedly reaching nearly ten times the £1 billion on offer.

It also formed part of Alphabet’s broader multi‑currency fundraising drive to finance massive AI‑related capital spending, including data‑centre expansion.

Issuing in sterling diversified its investor base, reduced reliance on U.S. dollar markets, and signalled confidence in its long‑term stability as a quasi‑infrastructure‑scale business.

It’s all debt; however you look at it!

Anthropic Pushes the Frontier Again with Claude Opus 4.6

Claude Opus 4.5

Anthropic has unveiled Claude Opus 4.6, its most capable AI model to date, marking a significant leap in long‑context reasoning, autonomous agent workflows, and enterprise‑grade coding performance.

The release arrives during a turbulent moment for the global software sector, with markets reacting sharply to fears that Anthropic’s accelerating capabilities could reshape entire categories of knowledge work.

At the heart of Opus 4.6 is a 1‑million‑token context window, a first for Anthropic’s Opus line and a direct response to long‑standing limitations around ‘context rot’ in extended tasks.

Benchmarks

Early benchmarks show a dramatic improvement in maintaining accuracy across vast documents and complex, multi‑step workflows.

This expanded capacity enables the model to analyse large codebases, regulatory filings, or research archives in a single pass—an ability already drawing interest from enterprise users.

Perhaps the most striking development is Anthropic’s progress in agentic systems. Claude Code and the company’s Cowork framework now support coordinated ‘agent teams’, allowing multiple Claude instances to collaborate on sophisticated engineering challenges.

In one internal experiment, a team of 16 Claude agents built a complete Rust‑based C compiler capable of compiling the Linux kernel—producing nearly 100,000 lines of code with minimal human intervention.

Agentic shift

This agentic shift is reshaping expectations around AI‑driven software development. Anthropic positions Opus 4.6 not merely as a tool but as a foundation for autonomous, multi‑agent workflows that can plan, execute, and refine complex tasks over extended periods.

The company highlights improvements in reliability, coding precision, and long‑running task stability as core differentiators.

With enterprise adoption already representing the majority of Anthropic’s business, Opus 4.6 signals a decisive step toward AI systems that operate as high‑level collaborators rather than assistants.

As markets digest the implications, one thing is clear: Anthropic is accelerating the transition from ‘AI that helps’ to AI that works alongside you—and sometimes, entirely on its own.

Legal profession

Anthropic is pushing aggressively into the legal domain, positioning Claude as a high‑precision research and drafting partner for firms handling complex regulatory workloads.

The latest models emphasise long‑context accuracy, allowing lawyers to ingest entire case bundles, contracts, or disclosure sets without losing coherence.

Anthropic has also expanded constitutional AI safeguards, aiming to reduce hallucinations in high‑stakes legal reasoning.

Early adopters report gains in due‑diligence speed, contract comparison, and regulatory interpretation, particularly in financial services and data‑protection work.

While not a substitute for legal judgement, Claude is rapidly becoming a force multiplier for teams managing heavy document‑driven tasks.

The Rise of OpenClaw and the New Era of AI Agents

Agent AI

A new generation of artificial intelligence is taking shape, and at its centre sits OpenClaw — a fast‑evolving framework that embodies the shift from monolithic AI models to agile, task‑driven agents.

While large language models once dominated the conversation, the momentum has clearly moved toward systems that can reason, plan, and act with far greater autonomy. OpenClaw is emerging as one of the most intriguing examples of this transition.

Appeal

OpenClaw’s appeal lies in its modular design. Instead of relying on a single, all‑purpose model, it orchestrates multiple specialised components that collaborate to complete complex workflows.

This mirrors how real teams operate: one agent may handle research, another may draft content, and a third may evaluate quality or flag risks. The result is a system that behaves less like a tool and more like a coordinated digital workforce.

Defining trend

This shift is not happening in isolation. Across the industry, AI agents are becoming the defining trend. Companies are racing to build systems that can manage inboxes, run businesses, write and deploy code, or even negotiate with other agents.

The ambition is no longer to create a chatbot that answers questions, but an autonomous entity capable of executing multi‑step tasks with minimal human intervention.

OpenClaw stands out because it embraces openness and experimentation. Developers can plug in their own models, customise behaviours, and build agent ‘stacks’ tailored to specific industries.

Adoption

Early adopters in media, finance, and logistics are already exploring how these agents can streamline research, automate reporting, or coordinate supply‑chain decisions.

The promise is efficiency, but also creativity: agents that can generate ideas, test them, and refine them without constant supervision.

Of course, the rise of agentic AI brings challenges. Questions around safety, reliability, and accountability are becoming more urgent. An agent that can act independently must also be constrained responsibly.

Challenge

The industry is now grappling with how to balance autonomy with oversight, ensuring that these systems remain aligned with human goals and values.

Even with these concerns, the trajectory is unmistakable. OpenClaw and its peers represent a decisive step toward AI that is not merely reactive but proactive — capable of taking initiative, managing complexity, and collaborating with humans in more meaningful ways.

As these systems mature, they are likely to reshape not just how we work, but how we think about intelligence itself.

If you want to explore how this trend could influence your editorial or creative workflows, I’m ready to dive deeper with you.

Is This a Make‑or‑Break Year for OpenAI?

Where is OpenAI's profit?

OpenAI enters 2026 in a paradoxical position: simultaneously one of the fastest‑growing technology companies in history and one of the most financially strained.

With annualised revenue now exceeding $20 billion, the company has clearly proven global demand for generative AI. Yet the central question remains unresolved: where is the profit, and is this the year OpenAI must prove its business model is sustainable?

The company’s revenue trajectory has been extraordinary. Annual recurring revenue rose from $2 billion in 2023 to $6 billion in 2024, before leaping past $20 billion in 2025.

This growth reflects the rapid embedding of ChatGPT into enterprise workflows and the expansion of compute capacity, which has roughly tripled each year. But the same infrastructure powering this boom is also the source of OpenAI’s financial dilemma.

Costs

Compute costs have ballooned at a rate that rivals — and in some projections exceeds — revenue growth. Analysts estimate cumulative losses could reach $143 billion by 2029 if current spending patterns continue.

The company’s burn rate, driven by massive GPU procurement and long‑term energy commitments, has been described as ‘immense’ even by industry standards Benzinga.

OpenAI’s long‑term infrastructure deals, totalling more than 26 gigawatts of future compute capacity, underline the scale of its ambition — and its financial exposure.

To counterbalance these costs, OpenAI is experimenting with new revenue streams, including the introduction of advertising within ChatGPT for U.S. users.

This marks a strategic shift from pure subscription and enterprise licensing toward a more diversified, consumer‑scale monetisation model.

Make or break?

So is 2026 a make‑or‑break year? In many ways, yes. OpenAI has proven demand, scale, and cultural impact. What it has not yet proven is that generative AI can be profitable at planetary scale.

This year will test whether the company can convert extraordinary growth into a sustainable business — or whether its costs will continue to outpace even its most impressive revenue milestones.

Anthropic’s ‘connected’ AI deal and others too

Anthropic's AI valuation

Anthropic has reportedly struck major deals with Microsoft and Nvidia. On Tuesday 18th November 2025, Microsoft announced plans to invest up to $5 billion in the startup, while Nvidia will contribute as much as $10 billion. According to a reports, this brings Anthropic’s valuation to around $350 billion. Wow!

Google has unveiled its newest AI model, Gemini 3. According to Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai, it will deliver desired answers with less prompting.

This update comes just eight months after the launch of Gemini 2.5 and is reported to be available in the coming weeks.

Money keeps flowing

Money keeps flowing into artificial intelligence companies but out of AI stocks

In what seems like yet another case of mutual ‘back-scratching’, Microsoft and Nvidia are set to invest a combined $15 billion in Anthropic, with the OpenAI rival agreeing to purchase computing power from its two newest backers.

Lately, a large chunk of AI news feels like it boils down to: ‘Company X invests in Company Y, and Company Y turns around and buys from Company X’.

That’s not entirely correct or fair. There are plenty of advancements in the AI world that focus on actual development rather than investments. Google recently introduced the third version of Gemini, its AI model.

Anthropic’s valuation has surged to around $350 billion, propelled by a landmark $15 billion investment from Microsoft and Nvidia.

Anthropic, the AI start-up founded in 2021 by former OpenAI employees, has rapidly ascended into the ranks of the world’s most valuable companies, more than doubling its worth from $183 billion just a few months earlier.

A valuation of $350 billion for a company only 4 years old is astounding!

The deal reportedly sees Microsoft commit up to $5 billion and Nvidia up to $10 billion. Anthropic has agreed to purchase an extraordinary $30 billion in Azure compute capacity and additional infrastructure from Nvidia.

This strategic alliance is not merely financial; it signals a deliberate diversification of Microsoft’s AI ecosystem beyond its reliance on OpenAI. And Nvidia strengthens its dominance in AI hardware.

Anthropic’s valuation has reached $350 billion, following the massive $15 billion investment from Microsoft and Nvidia, which positions the company among the most valuable in the world.

This astronomical figure reflects both the scale of its partnerships — including $30 billion in Azure compute commitments and Nvidia’s cutting-edge hardware.

The valuation underscores both the intensity of the global AI race and the confidence investors place in Anthropic’s safety-conscious approach to artificial intelligence.

Yet, it also raises questions about whether such astronomical figures reflect genuine long-term value. Or is it the froth of an overheated market.

Hyperscalers keep pumping the money into AI but are they getting the justified returns yet? Probably not yet – but it will come in the future.

But by then, it will be time to upgrade the system as it develops and so more money will be pumped in

Even AI Firms Voice Concern Over Bubble Fears

AI bubble

For some time now, talk of an ‘AI bubble‘ has largely come from investors and financial analysts. Now, strikingly, some of the loudest warnings are coming from inside the industry itself.

At the Web Summit in Lisbon, senior executives from companies such as DeepL and Picsart reportedly admitted they were uneasy about the soaring valuations attached to artificial intelligence ventures. Sam Altman of OpenAI has also sounded warnings of AI overvaluation.

DeepL’s chief executive Jarek Kutylowski reportedly described current market conditions as ‘pretty exaggerated’ and suggested that signs of a bubble are already visible.

Picsart’s Hovhannes Avoyan reportedly echoed the sentiment, criticising the way start‑ups are being valued despite having little or no revenue. He reportedly coined the phrase ‘vibe revenue’ to describe firms being backed on hype rather than substance.

These remarks highlight a paradox. On one hand, demand for AI services remains strong, with enterprises expected to increase adoption in 2026.

On the other, the financial side of the sector looks overheated. Investors such as Michael Burry have accused major cloud providers of overstating profits, while banks including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have warned of potential corrections.

The tension reflects a broader question: can the industry sustain its rapid expansion without a painful reset?

Venture capital forecasts suggest trillions will be poured into AI data centres over the next five years, yet some insiders argue that the scale of spending is unnecessary.

Even optimists concede that businesses are struggling to integrate AI effectively, meaning the promised returns may take longer to materialise.

For now, the AI sector stands at a crossroads. The technology’s transformative potential is undeniable, but the financial exuberance surrounding it may prove unsustainable.

If the warnings from within the industry are correct, the next chapter of the AI story could be less about innovation and more about value correction.

Markets on a Hair Trigger: Trump’s Tariff Whiplash and the AI Bubble That Won’t Pop

Markets move as Trump tweets

U.S. stock markets are behaving like a mood ring in a thunderstorm—volatile, reactive, and oddly sentimental.

One moment, President Trump threatens a ‘massive increase’ in tariffs on Chinese imports, and nearly $2 trillion in market value evaporates.

The next, he posts that: ‘all will be fine‘, and futures rebound overnight. It’s not just policy—it’s theatre, and Wall Street is watching every act with bated breath.

This hypersensitivity isn’t new, but it’s been amplified by the precarious state of global trade and the towering expectations placed on artificial intelligence.

Trump’s recent comments about China’s rare earth export controls triggered a sell-off that saw the Nasdaq drop 3.6% and the S&P 500 fall 2.7%—the worst single-day performance since April.

Tech stocks, especially those reliant on semiconductors and AI infrastructure, were hit hardest. Nvidia alone lost nearly 5%.

Why so fickle? Because the market’s current rally is built on a foundation of hope and hype. AI has been the engine driving valuations to record highs, with companies like OpenAI and Anthropic reaching eye-watering valuations despite uncertain profitability.

The IMF and Bank of England have both warned that we may be in stage three of a classic bubble cycle6. Circular investment deals—where AI startups use funding to buy chips from their investors—have raised eyebrows and comparisons to the dot-com era.

Yet, the bubble hasn’t burst. Not yet. The ‘Buffett Indicator‘ sits at a historic 220%, and the S&P 500 trades at 188% of U.S. GDP. These are not numbers grounded in sober fundamentals—they’re fuelled by speculative fervour and a fear of missing out (FOMO).

But unlike the dot-com crash, today’s AI surge is backed by real infrastructure: data centres, chip fabrication, and enterprise adoption. Whether that’s enough to justify the valuations remains to be seen.

In the meantime, markets remain twitchy. Trump’s tariff threats are more than political posturing—they’re economic tremors that ripple through supply chains and investor sentiment.

And with AI valuations stretched to breaking point, even a modest correction could trigger a cascade.

So yes, the market is fickle. But it’s not irrational—it’s just balancing on a knife’s edge between technological optimism and geopolitical anxiety.

One tweet can tip the scales.

Fickle!