Tag: Microchips

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U.S. introduces more restrictions on AI chip sales across the world

U.S. AI tech

In a significant move to maintain its technological edge and ‘national security’, the United States has announced new restrictions on the sale of advanced AI chips to most countries around the world

This decision, unveiled in the final days of President Joe Biden’s administration, aims to limit the global distribution of AI technology while ensuring that America’s closest allies continue to have access to these critical resources.

Regulation

The new regulations will cap the number of AI chips that can be exported to most countries, while allowing unlimited access to U.S. AI technology for America’s closest allies, including Japan, UK, South Korea, and the Netherlands.

This approach is designed to prevent adversaries like China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea from acquiring advanced computing power that could enhance their military capabilities.

Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo emphasised the importance of maintaining U.S. leadership in AI development and chip design. ‘The U.S. leads AI now – both AI development and AI chip design, and it’s critical that we keep it that way,’ she reportedly said.

The regulations are part of a broader effort to close loopholes and add new guardrails to control the flow of AI chips and the global development of AI.

AI rules

The new rules will place limits on the export of advanced graphics processing units (GPUs), which are essential for powering data centers needed to train AI models. Companies like Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices, which produce these chips, will be significantly impacted by the new regulations.

Major cloud service providers, such as Microsoft, Google, and Amazon, will be able to seek global authorisations to build data centres, exempting their projects from the country quotas on AI chips.

The Biden administration’s decision has faced criticism from industry leaders. Nvidia, a leading producer of AI chips, called the new rules “sweeping overreach” and argued that the restrictions would clamp down on technology already available in mainstream gaming PCs and consumer hardware.

Oracle, a major data center provider, expressed concerns that the rules would hand over a significant portion of the global AI and GPU market to Chinese competitors.

Despite the opposition, the U.S. government remains steadfast in its commitment to protecting national security and maintaining its technological dominance. The new regulations are set to take effect in 120 days, giving the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump time to weigh in on the implementation and enforcement of the rules.

Restrictions

The U.S. restrictions on AI chip sales represent a strategic effort to safeguard ‘national security’ and maintain leadership in AI technology.

While the new regulations have sparked controversy and criticism from industry leaders, the government’s focus on controlling the global distribution of AI chips underscores the importance of technological sovereignty in an increasingly competitive world

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What could quantum computing breakthrough ‘Willow’ mean for the future of Bitcoin and other cryptos

Crypto and quantum computing

The advent of quantum computing presents both opportunities and challenges for the field of cryptography, especially in relation to cryptocurrencies.

Quantum computers, leveraging the principles of quantum mechanics, have the potential to revolutionise computing by solving certain problems significantly faster than classical computers.

One of the primary concerns is the impact of quantum computing on cryptographic algorithms that underpin the security of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Traditional public-key cryptography, which relies on the difficulty of factoring large prime numbers or solving discrete logarithms, could be broken by a sufficiently powerful quantum computer. Algorithms such as RSA, ECC (Elliptic Curve Cryptography), and DSA (Digital Signature Algorithm) could become vulnerable, as quantum algorithms like Shor’s algorithm are capable of efficiently solving these problems.

This potential vulnerability poses a significant threat to the security and integrity of cryptocurrency transactions. If quantum computers can crack these cryptographic codes, they could potentially access private keys, allowing malicious actors to steal funds or forge transactions. As a result, the trust that underpins the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem could be eroded.

However, the quantum threat is not without its solutions. The field of post-quantum cryptography is actively developing new cryptographic algorithms that are resistant to quantum attacks.

These algorithms leverage mathematical problems believed to be hard even for quantum computers, such as lattice-based cryptography, hash-based cryptography, and multivariate polynomial cryptography.

Transitioning to post-quantum cryptographic algorithms is crucial for ensuring the long-term security of cryptocurrencies in a quantum computing era.

In conclusion, while quantum computing poses a formidable challenge to current cryptographic systems, proactive measures and the development of quantum-resistant algorithms can mitigate these risks.

The cryptocurrency industry must stay ahead of the curve, adopting new technologies and strategies to safeguard against potential quantum threats and ensure the continued security and trust in digital currencies.

It has been estimated that the arrival of quantum computer is at least 10 years away. But is that allowing for the use of AI in its creation?

What is Willow and Quantum Computing?

Willow is the start of a new era of ultra-powerful ‘quantum’ microchips designed by Google. Willow’s speed is almost incomprehensible – according to Google, it is able to perform a computation in under five minutes that would take one of today’s fastest supercomputers 10 septillion years to solve.

This new chip design will inevitably lead to new quantum innovations and computer design over the coming years.

Ten septillion is 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years.

If you don’t understand (not many people do) what makes up quantum computing – there is a very simplified way simplified way of thinking about the breakthrough.

Imagine a maze and how a classical computer would try to find its way through the maze from start to finish. It would try one potential path at a time. A quantum computer would be able to try each path at the same time.

The quantum computer is coming. The only delay will be in design restrictions and the power needed to run the system.

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China initiates investigation into Nvidia as the microchip battle rumbles on

Tech tug 'o' war

China has reportedly initiated a probe into Nvidia, the US computer chip manufacturer, over purported breaches of anti-monopoly regulations.

The company’s shares fell by over 3% following the announcement, signalling the latest development in the ongoing tech conflict between the U.S. and China over the profitable semiconductor market.

Over recent weeks, the U.S. imposed stricter restrictions on the sale of certain exports to Chinese firms, and the dispute over the industry is anticipated to persist as Donald Trump returns to the White House.

Established in 1993, the company initially gained recognition for producing computer chips designed to process graphics, especially for video games.

Today, the tech giant leads in developing chips that drive artificial intelligence (AI), boasting a market value exceeding $3 trillion.

Its increasing control over the market has drawn scrutiny from competition regulators in the U.S. and internationally. Recently, the firm confirmed that it had been approached by regulatory bodies globally, including those in the U.S., UK, European Union, South Korea, and China.

The business finds itself at the centre of escalating geopolitical and economic tensions between the U.S. and China, with both nations vying for supremacy in advanced chip technology.

Nvidia disclosed last month that sales to China, including Hong Kong, represented approximately 13% of this year’s revenue to date.

However, this figure has declined following Americas enhancement of restrictions on sophisticated technology exports to Chinese companies, citing national security concerns. Chinese state media reported that Beijing had initiated an investigation.

The inquiry alleges that Nvidia breached commitments established during its 2020 acquisition of Mellanox Technologies, a smaller entity.

This development follows the U.S.’s recent intensification of restrictions, affecting sales to 140 entities, including Chinese chip companies such as Piotech and SiCarrier, barring special authorisation.

In retaliation, China reportedly imposed stringent new regulations on the export of crucial minerals to the U.S., such as antimony, gallium, and germanium. Observers have highlighted the significance of these measures, noting they specifically target the U.S rather than imposing general restrictions.

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What is China’s equivalent to Nvidia?

AI microchips

Chinese firms are reportedly intensifying their efforts to develop a competitive alternative to Nvidia’s AI chips, as part of Beijing’s ongoing initiative to reduce its reliance on U.S. technology.

China faces several challenges that are impeding its technological progress, including U.S. export restrictions that limit domestic semiconductor production. The lack of technical expertise is also reported to be a problem.

Analysts have identified companies including Huawei as the principal competitors to Nvidia in China

China’s counterparts to Nvidia, such as Huawei, Alibaba, and Baidu, are actively developing AI chips to compete in the same market. Huawei’s HiSilicon division is known for its Ascend series of data centre processors.

Huawei’s HiSilicon division is known for its Ascend series of data centre processors, and Alibaba’s T-Head has produced the Hanguang 800 AI inference chip. Other significant players include Biren Technology and Cambricon Technologies.

Alibaba’s T-Head has developed the Hanguang 800 AI inference chip. Other significant players include Biren Technology and Cambricon Technologies.

These Chinese firms are intensifying their efforts to create alternatives to Nvidia’s AI-powering chips. This is a big part of Beijing’s broader initiative to reduce its reliance on U.S. technology.

Nvidia’s surge in growth is attributed to the demand from major cloud computing companies for its server products, which incorporate graphics processing units, or GPUs.

These GPUs are crucial for entities like OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT, which requires substantial computational power to train extensive AI models on large datasets.

AI models are crucial for chatbots and other AI applications

Since 2022, the U.S. has limited the export of Nvidia’s top-tier chips to China, with further restrictions imposed last year.

The U.S. sanctions and Nvidia’s market dominance pose significant obstacles to China’s ambitions, particularly in the short term, according to analysts. The U.S. has curbed the export of Nvidia’s most sophisticated chips to China since 2022, with increased restrictions implemented last year.

China’s GPU designers rely on external manufacturers for chip production. Traditionally, this role was filled by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC). However, due to U.S. restrictions, many Chinese firms are now unable to procure chips from TSMC.

As a result, they have shifted to using SMIC, China’s largest chipmaker, which is technologically several generations behind TSMC. This gap is partly due to Washington’s limitations on SMIC’s access to essential machinery from the Dutch company ASML, necessary for producing the most advanced chips.

Huawei is driving the development of more sophisticated chips for its smartphones and AI, which occupies a significant portion of SMIC’s capacity.

Nvidia has achieved success not only through its advanced semiconductors but also via its CUDA software platform. The system enables developers to build applications for Nvidia’s hardware. This has fostered an ecosystem around Nvidia’s designs, which will be challenging for competitors to emulate.

Huawei leading the pack for China

Huawei is at the forefront as a leading force in China for its Ascend series of data centre processors. The current generation, named Ascend 910B, is soon to be succeeded by the Ascend 910C. This new chip may come to rival Nvidia’s H100.

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U.S. introduces new microchip-related export controls

U.S. chip rules

The Biden administration is reportedly implementing new export controls on essential technologies, such as quantum computing and semiconductor materials, in response to China’s progress in the global chip market

These controls encompass quantum computers and their components, sophisticated chipmaking tools, semiconductor technologies, certain metal and metal alloy components and software, and high-bandwidth chips, which are vital for AI applications.

While the U.S. intensifies its measures to curb China’s expansion, there is noticeable hesitancy within the global industry.

The U.S. Department of Commerce issued new regulations on Friday, 6th September 2024, encompassing quantum computers and their components, sophisticated chipmaking tools, certain metal and metal alloy components and software, as well as high-bandwidth chips, which are vital for AI applications.

See report details here

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Qualcomm intensifies competition with Intel and AMD and others as the company introduces its newest AI PC chip

New AI chip from Qualcomm

Qualcomm has introduced the Snapdragon X Plus 8-core processor, intensifying its venture into the AI PC market and challenging competitors like Intel and AMD

The U.S. semiconductor powerhouse announced that the Snapdragon X Plus 8-core targets PCs priced from $700, aiming to broaden its chip reach to additional devices.

Moreover, Qualcomm has enjoyed backing from Microsoft, which is incorporating Snapdragon processors in its Copilot+ PCs.

Qualcomm says the company is also working on mixed reality smart glasses with Samsung and Google.

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Biggest one-day market capitalisation drop for a U.S. stock in history, and guess what… it was Nvidia

Nvidia

Nvidia $279 billion market cap wipeout — the biggest in U.S. history for just ONE company

On Tuesday 3rd September 2024, around $279 billion of value was wiped off of Nvidia. That was the biggest one-day market capitalisation drop for a U.S. stock in HISTORY!

Nvidia one-day chart closed 108 on 3rd September 2024

Nvidia one-day chart closed 108 on 3rd September 2024

Nvidia shares continued sliding in post-market trading Tuesday, falling 2%, after Bloomberg reported that the company received a subpoena from the Department of Justice as part of an antitrust investigation.

Global semiconductor stocks and related sectors subsequently experienced a decline on Wednesday 4th September 2024, after Nvidia’s share price in the U.S. saw a significant plunge overnight.

Update: in a subsequent statement Nvidia reportedly said it didn’t receive antitrust subpoena from DOJ. This according to a report on CNBC.

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Nvidia reports 122% revenue growth

Data centre

Nvidia has announced earnings surpassing Wall Street forecasts and has issued guidance for the current quarter that exceeds expectations.

As the artificial intelligence boom continues, Nvidia remains a major beneficiary. Despite a stock price dip, after trading hours, the stock has risen approximately 150% this year. The question remains whether Nvidia can sustain this growth trajectory.

Nvidia said it expects about $32.5 billion in current-quarter revenue, versus $31.7 billion expected by analysts, according to analysis That would be an increase of 80% from a year earlier.

Revenue continues to surge, rising 122% on an annual basis during the quarter, following three straight periods of year-on-year growth in excess of 200%.

Nvidia’s data centre business, which encompasses its AI processors, saw a 154% increase in revenue from the previous year, reaching $26.3 billion and representing 88% of the company’s total sales.

However, not all these sales were from AI chips. Nvidia reported that its networking products contributed $3.7 billion in revenue.

The company primarily serves a select group of cloud service providers and consumer internet firms, including Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Tesla. Nvidia’s chips, notably the H100 and H200, are integral to the majority of generative AI applications, like OpenAI‘s ChatGPT.

Nvidia also announced a $50 billion stock buyback.

Nvidia shares dropped close to 5% in after-hours pre-market trade (29th August 2024).

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How frothy is the AI data centre market for investors?

AI market froth?

Nvidia investors have been on a rocket ride to the stars. But recently they have come back down to Earth, and it has become more of a roller coaster ride.

Benefiting significantly from the artificial intelligence surge, Nvidia’s market cap has increased approximately ninefold since late 2022 – a massive market cap gain.

However, after achieving a peak in June 2024 and momentarily claiming the title of the world’s most valuable public company, Nvidia then experienced close to a 30% decline in value over the subsequent seven weeks, resulting in an approximate $800 billion loss in market capitalisation.

Currently, the stock is experiencing a rally, bringing it within approximately 6% of its all-time peak. The chipmaker surpassed the $3 trillion market cap milestone in early June 2024, aligning with Microsoft and Apple. The question remains whether the company can reclaim and sustain that title.

Investors are closely monitoring Nvidia’s forecast for the October quarter, with the company anticipated to report a growth of approximately 75%. Positive guidance would imply that Nvidia’s affluent clients continue to invest heavily in AI development, whereas a lacklustre forecast might suggest that infrastructure investment is becoming excessive.

Should there be any signs of diminishing demand for AI or if a major cloud customer is reducing spending, it could lead to a notable decline in revenue.

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Intel sells stake in UK chip designer Arm

Circuit board microchip

Intel has divested its 1.18 million share stake in the British chip company Arm Holdings, according to a regulatory filing.

Intel is undergoing significant restructuring and cost-cutting to address competitive challenges in the semiconductor industry.

The recent transaction, disclosed on Tuesday 13th August 2024, is believed to have earned Intel approximately $147 million, based on Arm’s average share price between April and June 2024.

This move away from Arm occurs during a challenging financial phase for Intel, as it embarks on what CEO Pat Gelsinger reportedly describes as “the most extensive restructuring of Intel since the memory microprocessor transition four decades ago.”

In early August, Intel announced a cost-reduction plan designed to save $10 billion. This includes the layoff of about 15,000 employees, the elimination of the fiscal fourth-quarter dividend, and a reduction in capital expenditures.

At the same time, Intel disclosed quarterly figures that fell short of expectations and provided conservative guidance for the upcoming quarter.

This announcement precipitated the steepest single-day decline in Intel’s stock value in half a century, plummeting 26%.

Intel one year chart as of 15th August 2024

Intel one year chart as of 15th August 2024
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Amazon, Intel, Meta, Nintendo, Apple, Snap, Qualcomm and others report – here’s a brief round-up

Reports summary 31st July 2024 -1st August 2024

Amazon offers weak guidance citing Olympics and the Trump assassination attempt as cause (consumers are distracted). However, Amazon’s cloud unit reports 19% revenue growth, topping estimates and a 20% increase in business in Q2. Amazon stocks pull back after guidance update.

Intel endures a 22% share plunge dragging down other global microchip stocks from TSMC, ASML to Samsung. Company to cut 15% of workforce, reports quarterly guidance miss.

Meta shares climb 6% on positive earnings data and good revenue forecast. Zuckerberg enthused over AI and how it’s helping create profits suggesting ‘Meta’s advertising growth is proof that BIG AI spending is already paying off.’ However, Meta’s Reality Labs posts $4.5 billion loss in second quarter.

Nintendo profit falls 55% as sales of its ageing Switch console plunge. Nintendo revenue and profit plunged in Q1 as sales of its ageing Switch console decline. Nintendo sold 2.1 million units of its Switch consoles, down 46% on the year. Investors are seeking news surrounding a successor to the Nintendo Switch console.

Apple sales climbed 5%, topping estimates as iPad and services revenue lift despite ongoing issues with iPhone sales slipping in China. Apple is spending more on AI but remains way behind its peers.

Snap shares plunge more than 20% on weak guidance.

Qualcomm beats estimates as phone microchip sales up 12%.

Samsung Q2 revenue and profit comes in above estimates amid strong AI demand.

AMD jumps 5% as global microchip stocks rally. Data centre sales doubled.

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Nvidia rebounds after half a trillion market cap slump

Hot AI

To put this figure into some perspective, the loss is comparable to the GDP output of a small country, such as Norway, Singapore, or the UAE, for example.

Global semiconductor stocks experienced volatility on Tuesday following a decline in Nvidia’s shares from the previous trading sessions.

Shares of chip firms in Europe and Asia fell in early trade as investors reacted to Nvidia losing more than $500 billion in market capitalization over three trading days. Some of the stocks recouped losses, however, as shares in the U.S. chipmaking giant recovered around 6 – 6.5% as of Tuesday 25th June 2024.

This follows a significant drop in Nvidia’s share value, which fell 13% over three consecutive sessions from the record highs achieved on Thursday 20th June 2024.

On Monday 24th June 2024, Nvidia’s stock closed down 6.7%, marking its second-largest decline of the year, yet the shares began to recover in early trading on Tuesday 25th June 2024.

Last week, the company surpassed Apple and Microsoft to become the most valuable U.S. company, achieving a market capitalization of over $3.4 trillion. However, by the end of Monday, Nvidia’s market value had declined by more than $540 billion from its intraday record on Thursday 20th June 2024.

Nvidia reported that the demand for its highly sought-after artificial intelligence graphics processing units (GPUs) continues to be strong.

Companies such as Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta are investing billions of dollars in these chips to enhance their data centres and cloud services.

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Little know company Kneron launches latest AI chips – backed by Qualcomm

AI chip

Kneron, a startup specializing in artificial intelligence chips, unveiled its latest products on Wednesday 4th June 2024.

The company aims to exploit the growing world-wide interest in AI and provide an alternative to industry heavyweights such as Nvidia and AMD.

The company, headquartered in Taiwan and supported by American semiconductor leader Qualcomm and major iPhone assembler Foxconn, introduced the KNEO 330, its second-generation ‘edge GPT’ server.

GPT, short for generative pre-trained transformer, is an AI algorithm trained on vast datasets capable of generating text and images, with OpenAI’s ChatGPT being the world leader right now.

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Cisco’s ThousandEyes has unveiled an AI product designed to predict and rectify internet outages

AI net

ThousandEyes, Cisco’s internet monitoring division, has introduced a new suite of AI-driven features known as Digital Experience Assurance, or DXA, on Tuesday 4th June 2024.

The firm asserts that this new AI technology will allow customers to not only monitor but also automatically address issues affecting network quality.

Describing itself as the ‘Google Maps’ of the internet, Cisco ThousandEyes offers a comprehensive, end-to-end perspective of every user and application across all networks.

Established 15 years prior, the company has been heavily investing in AI technology in recent years.

ThousandEyes is now implementing significant AI-centric modifications to its platform, which are designed to enhance its clients’ oversight of network quality and robustness.

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Nvidia announces new AI chips

AI

Nvidia has revealed its latest generation of AI chips, coming just months after the release of its preceding model.

This rapid succession underscores the intense competition within the AI chip market and Nvidia’s relentless effort to maintain its leading position.

CEO Jensen Huang has now committed to unveiling new AI chip technology annually, accelerating the company’s prior biannual pace. The latest AI chip architecture, named ‘Rubin,’ is set to follow the ‘Blackwell’ model announced in March 2024, which is currently in production and anticipated to be delivered to customers the latter part of 2024.

Huang’s unveiling of the Rubin has seemingly hastened Nvidia’s already rapid AI chip development.

Nvidia has committed to launching new AI chip designs annually, a cadence Huang reportedly referred to as a ‘one-year rhythm‘ during his Sunday 2nd June 2024 announcement. Previously, the company was committed to updating its chips every two years. But such is the speed and fierce competition of AI development, that original decision has become quickly out-dated.

The swift transition from Blackwell to Rubin, taking less than three months, highlights the intense competition in the AI chip market and Nvidia’s race to maintain its leading position.

AMD and Intel are two major competitors playing catch-up in the AI race.

Nvidia one year share chart

Nvidia one year share chart
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With a 20,000% increase over the past decade – has Nvidia’s stock peaked?

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) has experienced remarkable growth over the past decade.

Historical stock price trends

As of 10th May 2024, NVIDIA’s closing stock price stood at: $898.78

As of 10th May 2024, NVIDIA’s closing stock price stood at: $898.78

NVIDIA’s stock reached an all-time high of $950.02 on 25th March 2024. The 52-week high stands at $974.00, which is 9.7% higher than the current share price. Conversely, the 52-week low was $280.46, which is considerably below the current price.

Annual percentage changes

In 2024, the average stock price reached $763.29, marking a year-to-date rise of 79.30%.

In 2023, NVIDIA’s stock price experienced a remarkable surge of 239.02%.

Conversely, in 2022, the stock price witnessed a decline of 50.27%.

Throughout the past decade, the stock has undergone considerable volatility, exhibiting both notable gains and significant losses.

Focus

NVIDIA began as a pioneer in PC graphics and has since expanded its focus to artificial intelligence (AI) solutions. Its GPUs (graphics processing units) are pivotal in AI, high-performance computing (HPC), gaming, and virtual reality (VR) platforms.

The company’s parallel processing capabilities, powered by thousands of computing cores, are vital for executing deep learning algorithms. Additionally, NVIDIA is active in emerging markets such as robotics and autonomous vehicles.

Market position

NVIDIA holds a dominant position in the Data Centre, professional visualization, and gaming markets. Its success is bolstered by strategic partnerships with leading cloud service providers and server vendors.

Financial performance

NVIDIA’s revenue and profit have seen substantial growth over time. Its emphasis on AI and new technologies suggests a strong potential for further expansion. In summary, despite NVIDIA’s stock achieving impressive gains, it is still influenced by market trends and technological changes.

Its peak status hinges on multiple elements such as industry movements, competitive landscape, and upcoming innovations. Investors are advised to meticulously assess these factors when determining the stock’s future prospects.

Considering a long-term investment yet expecting a downturn, it might be prudent to realise some profits now, given the enormous 20,000% surge in stock value.

Take some profit and buy again after a pull-back.

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Arm reportedly to launch AI chips in 2025 as Softbank plan AI data centres

AI

Arm, with a 90% holding by SoftBank, is reportedly set to establish an AI chip unit with the goal of developing a prototype by spring 2025.

This initiative is aimed at catching up with the booming AI market, currently dominated by Nvidia.

Arm, alongside competitors such as AMD, Intel, and Qualcomm, is accelerating efforts to gain position in the AI sector.

SoftBank is negotiating with contract manufacturers, including Taiwan’s TSMC, to produce the AI chips. Mass production is expected to commence in autumn 2025.

Arm’s shares have surged by nearly 45% this year, bringing its market capitalization to over $113 billion.

The chip designer based in the U.K., plans to create an AI chip unit to develop a prototype by spring 2025.

Discussions are reportedly ongoing with contract manufacturers like Taiwan’s TSMC for the production of the AI chips. It was reported that production is anticipated to start in fall 2025.

Arm is responsible for designing the core architecture for these chips. The company licences its designs to companies including Qualcomm and Nvidia and earning royalty fees from each sale. The company asserts that 99% of high-end smartphones utilize Arm technology.

Ambition

Established by Japanese billionaire Masayoshi Son, SoftBank is heavily investing in AI. The company has new plans to allocate $960 million by the following year to enhance its generative AI computing capabilities. In June 2023, Son expressed SoftBank’s ambition to occupy a leading role in the AI revolution.

Reportedly, SoftBank aims to establish AI data centres equipped with proprietary chips throughout the U.S., Europe, Asia, and the Middle East by 2026.

For the fiscal year concluding in March 2024, SoftBank recorded a 7.24 billion Japanese Yen ($4.6 billion) profit in its Vision Fund.

This was the first profitable year for the principal tech investment division since 2021.

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Arm Holdings share price drops

AI

UK chip designer Arm’s shares fell on Thursday 9th May 2024, subdued by revenue forecasts despite a strong sales quarter fueled by demand for AI applications.

Arm announced a 47% increase in fiscal Q4 revenue to $928 million on Wednesday.

This surge was propelled by its licensing business, which saw a 60% increase to $414 million for the quarter, attributed to several high-value licencing deals for AI chips.

Additionally, Arm’s royalty revenues rose 37% to $514 million year-over-year, thanks to the growing adoption of its new Armv9-based chips, which offer higher margins.

However, Arm’s revenue projection for 2025, estimated between $3.8 billion and $4.1 billion, did not meet investor expectations, with analysts anticipating $3.99 billion for the year.

What is Arm?

Contrary to chipmakers like Nvidia, which manufacture and market their own products, Arm creates the ‘architectures’ that form the foundation of chips.

These designs are then licenced to various chip manufacturers, including Qualcomm and Nvidia, with Arm earning royalties on each unit sold.

Originally founded in Cambridge, England, in 1990, Arm was an independent company listed in London until 2016, when it was acquired by Japanese tech investor SoftBank for $32 billion.

In September 2023, SoftBank listed Arm on the Nasdaq. Since its initial public offering, Arm’s share value has more than doubled, driven by the explosive demand for chips that power advanced generative AI applications, such as ChatGPT.

But this recent revenue forecast had a negative effect on its share price

Arm Holdings one year chart to 9th May 2024

The recent revenue forecast had a negative effect on its share price
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Intel shares fall after company provides weak forecast

Microchip stock chart

Intel shares fall after company provides weak forecast for earnings, but disappoints with sales.

The stock fell 8% in extended trading.

Monthly stock price chart for Intel Corp. March to April 2024

Monthly stock price chart for Intel Corp. March to April 2024

Intel actual versus consensus expectations for the quarter ended in March 2024:

Earnings per share: 18 cents vs. 14 cents expected

Revenue: $12.72 billion vs. $12.78 billion expected

For the second quarter, Intel anticipates earnings of 10 cents per share with a projected revenue of $13 billion. This projection is in contrast to analysts’ expectations, which predict earnings of 25 cents per share on sales amounting to $13.57 billion.

In the first quarter, Intel disclosed a net loss of $400 million, equivalent to 9 cents per share, as opposed to the previous year’s net loss of $2.8 billion, 66 cents per share.

Revenue was $12.7 billion versus $11.7 billion a year ago, a 9% year-over-year increase.

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Tech giant Samsung expects profits to jump by more than 900%

Semiconductor

Samsung Electronics anticipates its profits for the first quarter of 2024 to surge more than tenfold compared to the previous year.

This projection is due to the recovery in chip prices following a post-pandemic decline and a surge in demand for artificial intelligence (AI) related products.

As the world’s leading manufacturer of memory microchips, smartphones, and televisions, the South Korea-based Samsung reportedly plans to publish a comprehensive financial report on 30th April 2024.

Projected profit

The tech giant has projected that its operating profit for the January-March 2024 quarter soared to 6.6 trillion won ($4.9bn; £3.9bn), marking a 931% increase from the same period in 2023, surpassing analysts’ forecasts of approximately 5.7 trillion won.

Rebound in microchip prices

A rebound in global semiconductor prices, following a significant downturn the previous year, is expected to bolster its earnings. Over the past year, global memory microchip prices have reportedly increased by about 20%. The semiconductor division of Samsung typically generates the most revenue for the company.

The demand for semiconductors is projected to stay robust throughout the year, fueled by the expansion in AI technologies. Furthermore, the earthquake that struck Taiwan on 3rd April 2024 could potentially constrict the worldwide chip supply, possibly enabling Samsung to further elevate its prices.

Taiwan a key player

Taiwan houses several key chipmakers, including TSMC, which supplies Apple and Nvidia. Despite TSMC reporting minimal impact on its production from the earthquake, it did experience some operational disruptions.

Additionally, Samsung is poised to benefit from the sales of its newly launched flagship Galaxy S24 smartphones, introduced in January.

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Intel shares fall after $7 billion operating loss revealed in foundry business

Microchip manufacture

Intel’s stock dropped by 4% during extended trading on Tuesday 2nd April 2024, following the disclosure of long-anticipated financial details for its semiconductor manufacturing division, often referred to as the foundry business, in a filing with the SEC.

The company reportedly disclosed that its foundry business incurred an operating loss of $7 billion in 2023, against sales of $18.9 billion. This represents a greater loss compared to the $5.2 billion operating loss reported by Intel for its foundry business in 2022, which had sales of $27.5 billion.

This is the first time that Intel has disclosed revenue totals for its foundry business separately. Historically, Intel has both designed its own chips as well as its own manufacturing and reported microchip sales to investors.

Other American semiconductor companies such as Nvidia and AMD design their microchips but send them off to Asian factories such as Taiwan’s TSMC for manufacturing.

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New guidelines from China reportedly blocks U.S. chips in government computers

U.S. China trade microchip trade battle

China has reportedly prohibited the use of U.S. processors from both AMD and Intel in government computers and servers. The directive is designed to encourage the use of domestic alternatives.

Chinese government agencies are now required to choose ‘safe and reliable’ domestic alternatives for these chips. The sanctioned list features processors from Huawei and the state supported firm Phytium, both of which face bans in the U.S.

In addition to processors, China is now also restricting Microsoft Windows on government devices, opting instead for domestically produced operating systems.

These guidelines are part of a broader tech trade battles between China and the U.S. While the impact on Intel and AMD remains to be seen, it’s clear that China is taking aggressive steps to reduce reliance on U.S. built technology.

The global tech landscape continues to evolve, and these decisions have far-reaching implications for both countries and the industry as a whole.

U.S. and China trade tensions are unlikely to recede anytime soon.

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Water scarcity and its impact on semiconductor production

Water scarcity

Water scarcity is a pressing global issue and has far-reaching consequences across various industries. One sector significantly affected is semiconductor manufacturing.

How does water scarcity pose a threat to the production of essential microchips.

Water in Semiconductor Manufacturing

Ultra-pure water is a critical resource in semiconductor fabrication plants (fabs). It is used for cleaning, cooling, and various processing steps during chip production.

Microchips power our devices—computers, smartphones, sensors, and LEDs—all of which rely on water-intensive manufacturing processes.

Global Water Scarcity

Freshwater availability is unevenly distributed worldwide. While oceans contain 97% of water (mostly saline), accessible freshwater constitutes only a small fraction.

Approximately four billion people experience severe water scarcity for at least one month annually, and half a billion face it year-round.

Taiwan’s Drought and Chip Production

Taiwan, a semiconductor manufacturing hub, faces a severe drought. Over 20% of global microchips are produced there.

Water shortages threaten supply chains, potentially impacting chip production.

Cost and Sustainability

Creating fully self-sufficient local supply chains would cost $1 trillion. Such self-reliance could increase semiconductor costs by up to 65%.

Urgent action is needed to ensure sustainable water management in fabs, as chips control everything from cars to appliances.

In conclusion, water scarcity poses a real danger to semiconductor production. Addressing this challenge requires strategic planning, conservation efforts, and global cooperation.

AI a problem or a solution?

Will the problem of water scarcity exacerbate the uneven distribution of water around the world as the rich have easier access to the precious resource.

Will the explosion of AI tech push the imbalance – water is a basic necessity to maintain human life. Will AI have a hand in controlling the distribution of water – even for its own needs?

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Nvidia revenue is up 265% latest figures show and stock gains 15%

AI chip

The excitement surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) technology appears to show few signs of abating

The technology company at the heart of the AI chip boom reported its Q4 earnings after the stock market’s close on Wednesday 21st February 2024, beating expectations for both earnings and sales. The company’s total revenue is up 265% from a year ago.

Investors are looking to Nvidia’s latest quarterly earnings report to see whether the company’s meteoric growth can last.

Nvidia one year share price as at 22nd February 2024

Nvidia one year share price as at 22nd February 2024

AI chips

Nvidia makes powerful computer chips that power popular AI tools like OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Microsoft’s Copilot. High demand for those chips has propelled the company into the exclusive trillion-dollar club.

As of market close on 21st February 2024 the company’s market cap sat at $1.667 trillion, putting it behind Alphabet’s $1.779 trillion market cap. It’s also behind Microsoft and Apple, which hold market caps of $2.988 trillion and $2.819 trillion, respectively.

Nvidia’s stock price has been on an upward trajectory so far this year. Shares have gained by nearly 40% since the beginning of 2024. On top of that, they’ve soared by over 225% in the last 12 months.

Although short-term demand for Nvidia’s AI chips has been strong, major companies such as Microsoft and Meta have indicated interest in buying them from other companies.

If you had invested $1,000 in Nvidia

If you had invested $1,000 in Nvidia five, 10 or 24 years ago, here’s how much your investment would be worth now.

$1,000 in Nvidia five years ago, your investment would have increased by an eye-watering 1,015% and be worth around $17,542 as of 20th February 2024.

If you had invested $1,000 in Nvidia 10 years ago, your investment would have soared by about 22,340% and be worth around $148,226 as of 20th February 2024.

But, if you had invested $1,000 in Nvidia in January 1999, when Nvidia first went public, your investment would have grown by around 277,708% and be worth close to $2,784,065 as of 20th February 2024.

AI has only just started.

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Nvidia stock closes at all-time high

AI chip image

Nvidia stock closes at all-time high, a day before earnings

Shares of Nvidia closed up 2.3% at an all-time high of $504 on Monday 20th November 2023. The record comes ahead of the company’s Q3 results due Tuesday 21st November 2023, when analysts are expecting to see revenue growth of over 170%.

And, if that’s not enough, the forecast for Q4, according to some analysts, is likely to show a number close to 200% growth.

Nvidia is still by far the market leader in GPUs for AI, but high prices and competition are fast becoming an issue.

Can Nvidia continue the AI ride and hold this remarkable market share position?

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Nvidia stock falls after restrictions placed on AI chip exports from U.S.

AI microchip

The U.S. reportedly announced new restrictions on exports of advanced chips to China, including two made-for-China chips from Nvidia.

U.S. chip stocks fell as the curbs also hit Advanced Micro Devices and Intel.

Loopholes

The curbs are aimed at closing loopholes that became apparent after the U.S. announced export curbs on microchips in October 2022. The restrictions are designed to prevent China’s military from importing advanced semiconductors or equipment.

Nvidia has said in a filing that the new export restrictions will block sales of two high-end artificial intelligence chips it created for the Chinese market – A800 and H800. It said that one of its gaming chips will also be blocked.

Nvidia Corp one month chart – closed at 439.38 17th October 2023

Although the curbs also affect other chip makers, analysts believe Nvidia will be hit the hardest because China accounts for up to 25% of its revenues from data centre chip sales. Nvidia’s shares, which are considered a star stock, fell by as much as 4.7% in the wake of the announcement.

Semiconductor Industry Association

The Semiconductor Industry Association, which represents 99% of the U.S. semiconductor industry by revenue, said in a statement that the new measures are ‘overly broad‘ and ‘risk harming the U.S. semiconductor structure without advancing national security as they encourage overseas customers to source elsewhere’.

China reacts

A spokesperson for the Chinese embassy also said that it ‘firmly opposes‘ the new restrictions, which also target Iran and Russia and go into effect in 30 days.

Nvidia stock falls after restrictions on AI chip exports from U.S. to China

Two months ago, China retaliated by restricting exports of two materials, gallium and germanium, which are key to the semiconductor industry.

China is by far the biggest player in the global supply chain of gallium and germanium. It produces 80% of the world’s gallium and 60% of germanium.

The materials are ‘minor metals‘, meaning that they are not usually found on their own in nature, and are often the by-product of other processes. It’s not only the U.S., Japan and the Netherlands – which is home to key chip equipment maker ASML – have also imposed chip technology export restrictions on China.

Fallout

The constant ‘fall-out’ between the world’s two biggest economies has raised concerns over the rise of so-called ‘resource nationalism‘ – a practice where governments hoard critical materials to exert influence over other countries.