Economoney Archives - Taking Stock

June 19, 2026June 19, 2026

UK and U.S. economic data roundup as of week ending 19th June 2026

United Kingdom – Latest Data This Week to June 19th 2026

Labour market:

The UK unemployment rate for April 2026 held at 4.9%, slightly below the previous 5% reading. Average earnings including bonuses grew 4.4%, while earnings excluding bonuses rose 3.4%. Employment increased by 100,000 in April, although HMRC payrolls for May showed only a marginal +2,000 change.

Retail sales:

Retail sales rebounded strongly in May 2026, rising 1.2% month‑on‑month and 3.2% year‑on‑year, reversing April’s declines. Retail sales excluding fuel also rose 1.2% MoM and 4.6% YoY.

Public finances:

Public sector net borrowing (excluding banks) came in at £23.3bn in May, slightly worse than April’s revised figure.

Business activity:

Flash PMIs for June show mixed momentum:
- Manufacturing PMI: 53.9 (expansion)
- Services PMI: 49.3 (contraction)
- Composite PMI: 49.7 (borderline contraction) These readings suggest the UK economy is losing some pace heading into summer.

United States – Latest Data This Week to 19th June 2026

Labour market:

Initial jobless claims for the week ending 13th June 2026 fell slightly to 226,000, broadly in line with expectations. Continuing claims rose to 1.81 million, indicating some softening in labour market conditions.

Manufacturing & business surveys:

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index jumped to 10.3 in June from –0.4, signalling a notable improvement in factory activity.
The S&P Global flash PMIs for June show:
- Manufacturing: 55.1 (solid expansion)
- Services: 50.7 (modest expansion)
- Composite: 51.5 (steady growth) These point to a resilient US private‑sector backdrop.

Housing & consumer indicators:

Mortgage rates eased slightly, with the 30‑year rate dipping to 6.47%.
Redbook retail sales rose 9.4% YoY, suggesting firm consumer spending.

Capital flows & energy:

Net long‑term TIC flows for April registered $103.1bn, indicating strong foreign demand for US assets.
API data showed a sharp –8.33 million barrel draw in crude oil stocks, hinting at tighter near‑term supply.

Overall Pictures for UK and U.S.

UK: A mixed week — labour market steady but softening at the margins; retail sales surprisingly strong; PMIs signalling a mild loss of momentum; public borrowing still elevated.
US: Data broadly stronger — manufacturing rebounded, services steady, jobless claims stable, and consumer spending indicators show firm.

June 17, 2026June 19, 2026

China’s Economy Loses Momentum in May 2026 as Consumers Pull Back

China’s economy showed fresh signs of strain in May 2026, with retail sales slipping for the first time this year and exposing the fragility of the country’s consumer‑led recovery.

The latest figures point to households becoming more cautious as job insecurity, weak income growth and a still‑ailing property sector weigh on confidence.

Retail sales — a key gauge of consumer demand — fell compared with a year earlier, reversing April’s modest rise.

Troubling?

Analysts note that the decline is particularly troubling because it comes despite a raft of local government incentives aimed at boosting spending on cars, appliances and electronics. Instead, households appear to be prioritising savings over discretionary purchases.

Industrial production continued to expand, but at a slower pace than earlier in the spring, suggesting that the export‑heavy manufacturing sector is also losing some momentum.

With global demand softening and geopolitical tensions disrupting supply chains, factories are finding it harder to sustain the strong output seen earlier in the year.

Weakness

The weakness in May 2026 adds pressure on Beijing to consider more forceful support measures. While policymakers have so far resisted large‑scale stimulus, the combination of faltering consumption and a deep property downturn is making the recovery increasingly uneven.

For now, the data underline a simple reality: China’s rebound remains fragile, and confidence is still in short supply.

June 12, 2026June 12, 2026

ECB Interest Rate Hike to 2.25% and UK GDP Contracts 0.1%

The European Central Bank jolted markets yesterday with its first interest‑rate increase since 2023, a move driven by renewed energy‑price pressures linked to the U.S./Iran conflict.

Policymakers signalled that the surge in wholesale gas and oil costs is feeding back into euro‑area inflation, forcing a return to tightening after more than two years of stability.

Investors had expected a cautious stance, but the ECB argued that delaying action risked inflation becoming embedded again, particularly in energy‑sensitive economies such as Germany and Italy.

The decision pushed bond yields higher across the bloc and strengthened the euro, reflecting expectations of a more hawkish path through the summer.

UK Lacklustre Growth

In the UK, fresh GDP data released by the ONS for April 2026 offered a more mixed picture. The economy expanded modestly, continuing the fragile recovery seen earlier in the year, but underlying momentum remains weak.

Services provided the bulk of the growth, while manufacturing and construction were broadly flat.

Economists warn that higher energy prices — the same shock driving the ECB’s decision — could weigh on UK output in the coming months, squeezing household budgets and raising costs for businesses.

Together, the ECB’s shift and the UK’s tentative growth figures underline how vulnerable Europe remains to global energy disruptions.

June 1, 2026June 1, 2026

South Korea’s Market Faces a Fragile Balancing Act

South Korean equities are showing signs of strain after a powerful rally led almost entirely by semiconductor giants Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.

Analysts warn that the market’s narrow leadership leaves it exposed to sudden reversals if global chip demand cools or investor sentiment shifts.

Overbought

It has been cautioned that the Kospi’s momentum indicators are flashing overbought signals, suggesting limited room for further gains before a correction sets in.

The country’s heavy reliance on the semiconductor cycle means any slowdown in AI‑related investment or memory‑chip orders could quickly erode confidence.

Broader industrial and consumer sectors have lagged, amplifying the sense that Korea’s stock market is running on a single engine.

Risks

While optimism remains high, the risks are clear: a fragile rally built on concentrated strength and global tech exuberance.

If macro headwinds return, the dust from “macro risks” may finally settle on Seoul’s fast‑moving market.

South Korea’s Kospi hit another new record high despite mixed trading across Asia-Pacific markets and this despite U.S. Iran deal caution.

May 28, 2026May 28, 2026

Headline: China’s Industrial Profits Surge 24.7% in April as Energy Shock Lifts Upstream Sectors

China's Industrial Profits Climb April 2026

China’s industrial sector delivered its strongest profit performance in more than two years in April 2026, with earnings jumping 24.7% year‑on‑year, a sharp acceleration from March’s 15.8% rise.

The latest figures, published by the National Bureau of Statistics, point to a profit rebound driven overwhelmingly by upstream industries and high‑tech manufacturing — even as large parts of the economy continue to lose momentum.

April 2026 surge

The April surge marks the fastest pace of growth since late 2023 and lifts year‑to‑date industrial profit expansion to 18.2%. Analysts note that the improvement is closely tied to rising producer prices, fuelled by the global energy shock and higher crude benchmarks.

That dynamic has delivered a windfall to mining, oil extraction and petroleum processing, where profits have swung sharply higher after a weak first quarter.

High-tech

High‑tech manufacturing — particularly computing and electronics equipment — remained the single largest contributor to overall profits.

Earnings in the sector more than doubled from a year earlier, reflecting China’s continued investment in AI‑related hardware, data‑centre components and advanced manufacturing capacity.

However, the pace of expansion eased slightly compared with March on a year‑to‑date basis, suggesting some early signs of normalisation.

Not all a bed of roses

The picture elsewhere is far less buoyant. Automobile manufacturers saw profits fall 16.8% in the first four months of the year, despite marginal improvement from the first quarter.

Furniture manufacturing deteriorated further, with profit declines deepening to 54.4%. These figures underscore the unevenness of China’s industrial recovery, with consumer‑facing and property‑linked sectors still under heavy strain.

Broader economic indicators reinforce that contrast. Industrial output grew just 4.1% in April 2026, retail sales barely rose 0.2%, and fixed‑asset investment continued to contract under the weight of the property downturn.

Exports

Yet exports remained a rare bright spot, surging 14.1%, while imports jumped 25.3%, hinting at resilient external demand and restocking activity.

Economists warn that April’s profit surge, while impressive, rests on a narrow base. Upstream sectors are thriving, but the recovery remains fragile — and heavily exposed to global energy volatility.

May 22, 2026May 22, 2026

UK Data Trio Offers Mixed Signals on Prices, Public Finances and Growth – Storm Clouds Gather

The UK’s latest run of economic data has delivered a contradictory picture: inflation easing sharply, borrowing surging, and growth outperforming expectations.

Together, the figures show an economy stabilising in some areas while coming under renewed strain in others.

Inflation (CPI)

April CPI fell to 2.8%, down from 3.3% in March, the lowest rate in nearly three years.

The drop was driven by Ofgem’s April energy price cap, which cut household gas and electricity bills, alongside softer rises in water charges, road tax and several food categories.

But economists warn the relief will be temporary. Wholesale energy prices have risen sharply since the U.S. / Iran conflict escalated, and inflation is expected to climb back above 4% later in the year.

The Bank of England is therefore likely to remain cautious about cutting rates.

Forecast out of sync

Government Borrowing (April 2026) The borrowing picture was far less encouraging. The government borrowed £24.3 billion in April — the highest April figure since 2020 and well above the £20.9 billion forecast by the OBR.

Borrowing was £4.9 billion higher than the same month last year, driven by inflation‑linked increases in benefits, the earnings‑linked rise in the state pension, and record April debt‑interest payments of £10.3 billion in 2026.

Analysts note that this deterioration comes before the full impact of the energy‑price shock is felt, raising concerns about the fiscal outlook for the rest of the year.

Growth

GDP Growth The bright spot came from growth: the economy expanded 0.3% in March 2026, beating expectations of a slight contraction, and delivered 0.6% growth for Q1 — the fastest among G7 countries reporting so far.

However, the ONS highlights that much of March’s strength reflected “front‑loading” of spending ahead of expected price rises linked to the Iran war, suggesting momentum may fade as higher energy and fuel costs feed through.

This data comes as the global economy waits for the full impact of the U.S. / Iran conflict to unravel.

May 18, 2026May 20, 2026

Why is UK Politics in such a Shambles?

Britain has ripped through five prime ministers in just over five years — Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, Rishi Sunak, and now the prospect of yet another change.

It is not simply bad luck or a run of flawed leaders. It is the visible symptom of a political system that has lost focus and direction.

Conservative infighting to Labour back biting!

The core problem is structural volatility. The UK’s unwritten constitution relies heavily on norms, restraint and party discipline. Over the past decade, those stabilising forces have collapsed.

Brexit

Brexit detonated the old Conservative coalition, splitting MPs into factions that no longer share a common project. Once a party becomes a collection of tribes, leadership becomes temporary management rather than authority.

Prime ministers are installed not to govern but to contain internal warfare — and they are removed the moment they fail to do so.

Exhaustion

The second driver is institutional exhaustion. Westminster has been running in crisis mode since 2016: Brexit negotiations, minority government, pandemic, inflation shock, energy crisis, geopolitical instability.

The machinery of state has been asked to deliver transformation while simultaneously firefighting. That combination breeds short-termism. Policies are launched for headlines, not outcomes.

Leaders are judged by weekly polling, not national strategy. The result is a political class that behaves like a boardroom under siege — reactive, brittle, and constantly reshuffling the chief executive.

Disillusioned

A third factor is public disillusionment. Trust in politics has fallen to historic lows. Voters now punish governments faster and more aggressively than at any point in modern British history.

The electoral cycle has shortened psychologically: every scandal becomes existential, every by‑election a referendum on the prime minister’s survival.

This creates a feedback loop where MPs panic, parties fracture, and leaders lose authority long before the public formally removes them.

Gap

Finally, the UK faces a governance gap. The country has major structural problems — weak productivity, regional inequality, an overstretched NHS, fragile public finances — but no long-term political consensus on how to fix them.

Without a shared national direction, governments drift, parties implode, and leadership churn becomes inevitable.

Britain’s political chaos is not random. It is the predictable outcome of a system that has lost coherence, a governing party that has lost unity, and a public that has lost patience. Until those three forces stabilise, the revolving door at No. 10 will keep spinning.

Just look at the calibre of politicians in the UK – or lack thereof.

I rest my case.

The self-destruct button is being pressed yet again…

UK politicians – it’s time to grow-up.

Definition of politician

A person who is professionally involved in politics, especially someone who holds or seeks public office in government.

More broadly, it refers to anyone who participates in governing, policy‑making, or political leadership at local, national, or international level.

Three words immediately jump out at me: professional, govern and leadership.

I see very little of any of these right now in our political ‘elite’.

May 13, 2026May 20, 2026

Fracking – Oil Exports – and the U.S. Oil Success

One of the least‑discussed forces helping to shape the current U.S.–Iran confrontation is the quiet revolution beneath American soil.

Over the past decade, hydraulic fracturing transformed the United States from a vulnerable energy importer into the world’s largest oil and gas producer.

Pumped up

Nowhere has this shift been more dramatic than in Texas, where the Permian Basin alone pumps more oil than many OPEC members. This surge has not only reshaped global markets — it has altered Washington’s strategic outlook.

The United States now exports record volumes of crude oil and liquefied natural gas, with outbound shipments regularly exceeding 4 million barrels per day.

The conflict with Iran isn’t impacting oil production in the U.S.—if anything, it has boosted output and increased overseas sales.

This would have been unthinkable twenty years ago, when U.S. foreign policy was constrained by dependence on Middle Eastern supply.

U.S. Shale Boom

Today, the shale boom has given Washington a buffer: even severe disruption in the Strait of Hormuz would no longer threaten the U.S. economy in the way it once did.

This energy independence has had political consequences. Analysts note that President Trump’s willingness to escalate against Iran — including strikes, sanctions, and naval deployments — is partly rooted in the belief that the U.S. can withstand an oil shock far better than its rivals.

Iran, by contrast, relies heavily on oil revenues and is already weakened by sanctions. A prolonged disruption to its exports hurts Tehran far more than Washington.

Texas fracking plays directly into this dynamic. The combination of horizontal drilling, high‑pressure fracturing, and vast shale formations has created a production engine capable of rapid growth.

When global prices rise, U.S. shale responds within months, softening the blow to consumers and limiting the geopolitical leverage of traditional producers.

Texas Asset

In effect, the Permian Basin has become a strategic asset — a domestic shock absorber that reduces the economic risks of confrontation abroad.

Critics argue that this new confidence borders on complacency. A major conflict in the Gulf would still send global prices sharply higher, with knock‑on effects for inflation, supply chains, and allied economies.

But there is no doubt that the fracking boom has changed the psychology of U.S. power. For the first time in modern history, America can contemplate a showdown in the Middle East without fearing an immediate energy crisis at home.

Texas may not be the reason the U.S. is confronting Iran — but it has certainly made the White House feel far safer doing so.

May 1, 2026May 1, 2026

Euro zone inflation jumps to 3% as economic growth almost stalls

Euro zone inflation accelerated sharply in April 2026, rising to 3%, as the bloc’s economy barely grew — a combination that deepens fears of a stagflationary year.

The latest flash estimate from Eurostat shows headline inflation climbing from 2.6% in March, driven overwhelmingly by surging energy costs linked to the U.S./Iran war and the ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.

Energy

Energy inflation jumped to 10.9%, more than double the previous month’s rate, underscoring how exposed the currency bloc remains to external supply shocks.

Core inflation, however, edged down to 2.2%, offering a small reassurance that second‑round effects — wage‑price spirals — have not yet taken hold.

Growth was anaemic. First‑quarter GDP expanded by just 0.1%, reflecting weak industrial output, fragile consumer confidence, and higher input costs for businesses.

Stagnation

Economists warn that the combination of rising prices and near‑stagnant activity risks pushing the region into a period of low‑growth, high‑inflation pressure.

The figures land just ahead of the European Central Bank’s policy meeting. With inflation above target but growth faltering, the ECB faces a difficult balancing act.

Policymakers are widely expected to hold rates at 2%, wary that tightening into a supply‑driven shock could deepen the slowdown.

For now, the data reinforce a picture of a euro zone squeezed by global energy turmoil and struggling to regain momentum.

April 28, 2026April 28, 2026

China’s Industrial Profits Surge as AI and Chipmakers Power a High‑Tech Rebound

China’s industrial sector delivered its strongest performance in more than half a decade in March 2026, with profits jumping 15.8% year‑on‑year, signalling a decisive shift in the country’s growth engine towards advanced manufacturing and AI‑related hardware.

The latest figures from the National Bureau of Statistics show first‑quarter profits rising 15.5%, marking the best opening to a year since 2017 outside the pandemic distortions.

The surge is highly concentrated. Traditional heavy industry remains subdued, but China’s high‑tech and equipment manufacturers are now carrying the industrial economy.

Tech manufacturing

Profits in high‑tech manufacturing soared 47.4%, while equipment makers posted a 21% rise. Beneath those aggregates lie extraordinary gains: optical fibre producers saw profits climb more than 300%, with optoelectronics and display‑device manufacturers also recording double‑digit increases.

These sectors sit at the heart of China’s AI infrastructure build‑out, from data‑centre components to semiconductor‑adjacent hardware.

Demand for “intelligent products” is also reshaping the landscape. Drone manufacturers reported profit growth above 50%, reflecting both civilian and dual‑use demand as China accelerates its push into autonomous systems and robotics.

This momentum comes despite a sharp rise in global oil prices following renewed tensions in the Middle East. Brent crude briefly topped $108 a barrel, raising concerns about margin pressure.

Partially insulated

Yet China appears partially insulated: a coal‑heavy energy mix, access to discounted Iranian crude and sizeable onshore inventories have softened the immediate impact.

Even so, analysts warn that a prolonged oil shock, tighter sanctions enforcement or disruption around the Strait of Hormuz could still weigh on costs later in the year.

China’s industrial profits are no longer being driven by property‑linked sectors or commodity cycles, but by the country’s accelerating investment in chips, AI hardware and advanced manufacturing — a structural shift that is beginning to reshape the contours of its economic recovery.

April 24, 2026April 24, 2026

Bank of England warns of potential stock market correction

The Bank of England has warned that today’s exceptionally high equity valuations leave global markets vulnerable to a sharp correction, with risks building across geopolitics, private credit, and the AI‑driven tech sector.

The Bank of England has become increasingly vocal about the dangers posed by super‑high stock valuations, arguing that markets are no longer pricing risk realistically.

Combined economic threats

Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden has stressed that asset prices are sitting at all‑time highs despite a growing list of global threats, including geopolitical instability, volatile energy markets, and rising borrowing costs.

She reportedly noted that investors appear to be underestimating the likelihood of multiple shocks occurring simultaneously, a scenario that could trigger a rapid and disorderly repricing of risk.

Breeden reportedly remarked that the BoE expects a market adjustment at some stage, even if the precise timing is impossible to predict.

Wide disconnect

Her concern centres on the widening disconnect between stretched valuations and the underlying economic environment.

The Bank has highlighted that equity markets—particularly those driven by AI‑related optimism—are trading at levels reminiscent of the dot‑com bubble, with concentrated gains in a handful of large technology firms amplifying systemic vulnerability.

The Bank also warns that the rapid expansion of the private credit sector, now worth trillions globally, has never been tested under severe stress.

Fragile

A correction in equity markets could interact with this fragile segment, tightening financial conditions and spilling over into the wider economy.

In short, the Bank of England’s message is clear: valuations are too high, risks are too many, and a correction is increasingly likely.

April 23, 2026April 23, 2026

UK Borrowing Falls, Offering Treasury Some Relief – March 2026

The latest public finance figures show that government borrowing has dropped to a lower‑than‑forecast level, helped by stronger tax receipts and easing inflationary pressures.

While the precise numbers will be scrutinised in the coming days, the headline outcome marks a modest but meaningful improvement in the UK’s fiscal position.

Softer inflation and lower interest rates

Analysts note that softer inflation has reduced the government’s debt‑interest bill, particularly on index‑linked gilts, which had surged during the inflation spike of the past two years.

The fall in borrowing also reflects a stabilising labour market and firmer wage growth, which have supported income‑tax and National Insurance receipts.

At the same time, lower market interest rates — driven by expectations of further Bank of England cuts after recent reductions to 3.75% — have eased short‑term financing costs for the Treasury.

High debt level

However, economists caution that the improvement should not be overstated. UK debt remains historically high, and pressures on public services, welfare spending, and capital investment persist.

Moreover, with growth still subdued and geopolitical risks keeping energy markets volatile, the fiscal outlook remains vulnerable to external shocks.

Even so, today’s figures provide the Chancellor with a welcome narrative shift: after years of deteriorating public finances, the government can point to early signs of stabilisation — albeit from a challenging starting point.

What the real data shows (ONS, published 23rd April 2026)

The latest ONS release confirms that UK government borrowing has indeed come in lower than expected, and the scale of the improvement is now clear:

Annual borrowing: £132.0 billion in the year to March 2026 — £19.8 billion lower than the previous year — £0.7 billion below the OBR forecast — Lowest level since 2022–23
March borrowing: £12.6 billion — £1.4 billion lower than March 2025 — Lowest March figure since 2022
Borrowing as % of GDP: — 4.3%, the lowest since 2019–20

The U.S./ Iran / Israel conflict with undoubtably hold the economy back as the effect has yet to fully filter through.

April 22, 2026April 22, 2026

The Nikkei 225 has surged to a fresh all‑time high – closing at 59,518.34

The Nikkei 225 has surged to a fresh all‑time high, closing at 59,518.34, driven by a powerful combination of temporary easing of geopolitical tension, a booming technology sector, and renewed investor confidence.

Japan’s benchmark index pushed decisively beyond its previous record of 58,850.27, set in late February 2026, marking a symbolic milestone as it fully erased losses sustained during the early stages of the US–Iran conflict.

Rally

The rally was broad but powered most strongly by semiconductor and AI‑linked stocks, which have been the backbone of the Nikkei’s remarkable 12‑month performance.

Companies such as Lasertec, Advantest and SoftBank Group saw outsized gains as global enthusiasm for AI investment continued to spill over from Wall Street.

A key catalyst behind the breakout was growing optimism over a durable ceasefire between the United States and Iran, which helped unwind the “war‑risk premium” that had weighed on Japanese equities since late February 2026.

Diplomatic signals

As diplomatic signals seem to improve, investors rotated back into risk assets, lifting export‑heavy sectors and reinforcing Japan’s position as one of the strongest major markets globally this year.

The index’s climb also reflects Japan’s structural momentum: a weaker yen supporting exporters, resilient corporate earnings, and sustained foreign inflows.

With the Nikkei now trading in uncharted territory, market participants are watching closely to see whether this rally consolidates — or whether the next psychological test at 60,000 comes into view sooner than expected.

April 22, 2026April 22, 2026

UK inflation rose to 3.3% in March 2026 as fuel prices spiked due to the ongoing U.S. Iran war

UK inflation jumped to 3.3% in March 2026, driven primarily by a sharp surge in fuel prices linked to the Iran conflict.

UK inflation accelerated to 3.3% in March 2026, up from 3% in February 2026, marking the first clear evidence of the Iran‑U.S. conflict feeding through to consumer prices.

Fuel costs

Official ONS data shows that motor fuel costs were the dominant driver, with petrol and diesel prices rising at their fastest pace in more than three years as global energy markets reacted to the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.

Air fares

Air fares also rose sharply, partly due to the early Easter holidays, while food inflation picked up again, including notable increases in sweets and chocolate.

Clothing discounted

Clothing provided the only meaningful offset, with retailers discounting more heavily than last year.

The rise pushes inflation further from the Bank of England’s 2% target and complicates the policy outlook.

While economists expect UK inflation to ease slightly in April 2026, the broader risk is that sustained energy pressures could keep price growth elevated for longer.

April 21, 2026April 22, 2026

UK Unemployment Rate Falls to 4.9% in Latest ONS Release

The UK unemployment rate has fallen to 4.9%, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), offering a rare moment of optimism in an otherwise unsettled economic landscape.

The data, covering the period from December 2025 to February 2026, shows a drop from 5.2% in the previous rolling quarter, marking the lowest level since mid‑2025.

Steady

Economists had broadly expected the rate to hold steady, making the improvement a mild but welcome surprise. The fall reflects a combination of rising employment in several service‑sector industries and a shift in the composition of the labour force.

Part of the decline, however, stems from an increase in economic inactivity, particularly among students and those temporarily stepping away from the workforce.

This means the headline figure flatters the underlying picture slightly, even if the direction of travel remains encouraging.

Easing wag growth

Wage growth continues to ease, and vacancies remain well below their post‑pandemic peak, suggesting the labour market is still cooling overall.

Yet the drop in unemployment provides the government with a positive data point to cling to at a time when households are grappling with high living costs and businesses are navigating weak demand.

For now, the labour market appears to be stabilising rather than sliding.

Note: this data was produced pre the U.S./Israel/Iran conflict.

April 17, 2026April 17, 2026

China Posts 5% Growth – but the Momentum Looks Thinner Than the Headline

China’s latest GDP figures show the economy expanding by 5% in the first quarter, a rare upside surprise at a time when global demand is wobbling and domestic confidence remains brittle.

The number beats expectations and marks an acceleration from the previous quarter’s 4.5% pace, but the underlying picture is far less tidy.

Export strength

The headline strength came overwhelmingly from exports, which surged early in the quarter before losing steam as the Iran‑related energy shock pushed up logistics and input costs.

Manufacturing output rose a solid 5.7%, underscoring how China continues to lean on its industrial engine while household spending lags behind.

That imbalance is becoming harder to ignore. Retail sales grew just 1.7% in March 2026, a sharp slowdown from February’s holiday‑boosted reading.

Slower consumerism

Big‑ticket purchases, particularly cars, weakened as oil‑price volatility filtered through to consumer sentiment. Even with government subsidies nudging upgrades in electronics and jewellery, the broader consumer recovery remains hesitant.

Investment data tells a similar story. Fixed‑asset investment rose only 1.7%, dragged down by another steep contraction in the property sector, where developers are still struggling to stabilise balance sheets and complete stalled projects. Real estate investment is now down more than 11% year‑to‑date.

Stronger than expected growth

China will welcome the stronger‑than‑expected growth print, but it does not resolve the structural pressures building beneath the surface.

With the Middle East conflict threatening global trade flows and energy prices, China’s export‑led momentum looks vulnerable.

Policymakers may not rush to deploy large‑scale stimulus, yet the economy’s reliance on external demand leaves it exposed to shocks it cannot control.

The 5% figure is impressive on paper but the foundation beneath it is far less secure.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)

April 16, 2026April 16, 2026

The UK economy experienced faster-than-expected growth in the period leading up to the Iran war – February 2026

The ONS’s February 2026 figures delivered a rare upside surprise: UK GDP rose 0.5% month‑on‑month, the strongest expansion in more than two years and five times the consensus forecast of 0.1%.

How can forecasts be so wrong?

January2026 was also revised up to 0.1%, overturning the earlier flat reading. On the surface, this looks like the economy finally pulling out of its shallow recession.

In reality, it is a snapshot of momentum that has already been overtaken by events.

Services mani

The growth was broad‑based. Services, which make up over three‑quarters of the economy, expanded 0.5%, marking a fourth consecutive monthly rise.

Production also grew 0.5%, and construction jumped 1.0%. Even the three‑month measure—less noisy than monthly data—showed UK GDP up 0.5%, compared with 0.3% previously. This is the kind of balanced improvement policymakers have been waiting for.

But the timing matters. These numbers capture the economy before the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict triggered a fresh energy shock at the end of February.

IMF downgrade

Since then, petrol, diesel and heating oil prices have surged, mortgage rates have ticked higher as markets price out rate cuts, and the IMF has downgraded the UK’s 2026 growth outlook to 0.8%.

So February’s strength is real—but it is also backward‑looking. The challenge now is whether any of that momentum survives the shock hitting households and firms this spring.

April 16, 2026April 15, 2026

Why does the UK have a serious issue with jet fuel supply

Britain’s jet fuel problem is the predictable result of a long, quiet erosion of refining capacity colliding with a geopolitical shock and decades of under investment.

The country now imports three times more kerosene than it produces, and the Middle East crisis has exposed just how thin those supply lines have become.

A system built on shrinking refineries

The UK once had 18 refineries; today it has just four. Closures at Lindsey and Grangemouth last year removed two critical plants, including Scotland’s only kerosene supplier.

The remaining refineries — Fawley, Humber, Pembroke and Stanlow — supply most domestic needs but cannot meet jet fuel demand.

Output has fallen 41% since 2000, driven by poor investment returns, high carbon costs, and the government’s push toward electrification reducing demand for other fuels.

This leaves Britain structurally dependent on imports for diesel and, crucially, kerosene.

The kerosene dependency

Jet fuel demand is unusually high because of Heathrow’s role as a global hub. In 2024, the UK was the second‑largest jet fuel consumer in the OECD, behind only the U.S.

Yet domestic production covers only a fraction of that. Britain reportedly imported around 3.1 times more kerosene than it produced in 2024.

And the sources of those imports are concentrated: 60% come from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait, making the UK acutely exposed to any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.

The real vulnerability: almost no stockpiles

Britain holds just one month’s worth of jet fuel reserves, far lower than most advanced economies. When Middle Eastern supply is threatened, the UK has no buffer.

European alternatives exist — notably the Netherlands and Antwerp — but prices have already doubled, and airlines are preparing to cut capacity.

The bigger picture

This is not a sudden crisis but the culmination of two decades of under‑investment, policy drift and over‑reliance on global markets.

Jet fuel is simply the first commodity where the structural weakness has become impossible to ignore.

The UK needs to get a grip!

A ‘systemic’ jet fuel shortage is brewing in Europe if the U.S. led Iran war crisis isn’t resolved soon.

April 15, 2026April 15, 2026

Why are central banks selling gold now after a massive buying spree

Central banks are selling gold now for one blunt reason: they need cash, and gold is the most liquid, pain‑free asset they can dump without triggering a credibility crisis.

The news wires report— “liquidity pressures”, “emerging‑market currency volatility”, “increased spending requirements” — but the underlying mechanics are more structural and revealing – they need the cash!

Central banks have swung from record gold accumulation to noticeable selling because the global system has shifted from long‑term hedging to short‑term survival.

The war in the Gulf has tightened liquidity, pushed up government spending, and destabilised emerging‑market currencies, forcing policymakers to turn their most liquid reserve into cash.

Gold is the one asset they can sell quickly without signalling panic, and that is shaping behaviour across dozens of reserve banks.

War, liquidity and the need for dollars

The Hormuz conflict has driven up energy costs, disrupted shipping and forced governments to spend more on defence and subsidies.

Emerging‑market central banks, already under pressure from currency volatility, need hard currency to intervene in FX markets and stabilise their economies. Selling gold provides instant access to dollars without dumping sovereign bonds or burning through already‑thin reserves.

A falling gold price creates a window

Gold has slipped around 12% from its January 2026 peak, entering a contraction phase despite geopolitical risk. For reserve managers, that is a cue to realise gains from the 2022–25 buying spree while prices remain historically high.

Selling now avoids being forced to sell later at distressed levels if the conflict deepens or fiscal pressures worsen. It will be bought back again at a later time.

The buffer they built is now being used

The record buying of recent years was driven by fears of sanctions, inflation and geopolitical fragmentation.

Those purchases created a cushion that can now be drawn down. The shift to selling does not signal a loss of faith in gold; it reflects the reality that reserves accumulated for stability are now being used to fund stability.

The deeper story is not about gold at all, but about a global system under strain: governments facing rising costs, currencies under pressure, and central banks forced to prioritise liquidity over long‑term positioning.

This is why central banks hold gold.

April 15, 2026April 14, 2026

UK economy will be hit hardest by the U.S.-Israel Iran war warns the IMF

The IMF’s warning that the UK would suffer the sharpest growth hit among rich economies from an Iran‑related war is rooted in a simple structural reality.

Britain is unusually exposed to energy‑price shocks, yet unusually weak in the buffers that normally absorb them according to the IMF.

Why the UK will be hit harder than its peers

The UK enters this crisis with three vulnerabilities

High dependence on imported energy. North Sea output has declined for years, leaving Britain reliant on global LNG markets. When Middle Eastern supply is disrupted, LNG prices spike first and hardest. The U.S. and eurozone have deeper domestic energy bases or cheaper pipeline access.
A structurally fragile inflation profile. The UK’s inflation has been stickier than that of other G7 economies, driven by food, energy and services. A renewed oil shock feeds directly into household bills and transport costs, forcing the Bank of England to keep rates higher for longer.
Weak productivity and stagnant investment. Britain has less momentum to absorb an external shock. When energy prices rise, UK firms cut back faster, and consumers retrench more sharply.
UK Government policy. Ed Miliband and his ‘likely’ misguided staunch defence of Net Zero policies and expensive energy costs have left the UK seriously exposed to shocks – such as this.

The IMF’s logic

The Fund argues that a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz would push global oil prices sharply higher.

For the UK, this translates into

Higher wholesale gas costs, because LNG markets reprice off oil‑linked benchmarks.
A renewed inflation surge, delaying rate cuts and tightening financial conditions.
A squeeze on real incomes, hitting consumption—the UK’s main growth engine.
A fall in business investment, already one of the weakest in the OECD.

The IMF’s modelling suggests that the UK’s growth rate could fall more steeply than that of the U.S., Germany or France because those economies either have stronger industrial bases, more resilient energy systems or more fiscal space to cushion the blow.

The broader picture

This is less about geopolitics and more about structural brittleness. A global energy shock exposes the UK’s unresolved weaknesses: high import dependence, fragile inflation dynamics and a decade of under‑investment.

April 10, 2026April 10, 2026

U.S. Inflation Stays Stubborn at 3% as Geopolitical Tensions Rise

America’s latest inflation figures show price pressures proving far stickier than the Federal Reserve would like, with the core PCE index — the Fed’s preferred gauge — holding at 3% in February 2026.

Headline inflation came in slightly lower at 2.8%, but both measures remain well above the central bank’s 2% target.

What makes this reading particularly significant is its timing. The data captures the state of the economy just before the U.S. and Israel launched military action against Iran.

Energy chaos

A conflict that has since sent global energy markets into turmoil. Oil briefly surged past $100 a barrel, and U.S. petrol prices jumped by more than a dollar, none of which is reflected in February’s figures.

Beneath the surface, the numbers paint a mixed picture. Consumer spending rose 0.5%, suggesting households were still willing to open their wallets, yet personal income unexpectedly slipped 0.1%.

Stagflation?

Fourth‑quarter GDP for 2025 was revised down to a sluggish 0.5% annualised, reinforcing concerns that the U.S. may be drifting into a mild stagflationary phase — slow growth paired with persistent inflation.

Fed officials have been cautious in recent weeks, signalling openness to rate cuts later in the year but unwilling to commit while geopolitical risks and energy‑driven price spikes cloud the outlook.

With March’s CPI due imminently — and expected to show a sharp jump — policymakers face a narrowing path between supporting a cooling labour market and preventing inflation from becoming entrenched.

For now, the message is clear: underlying inflation was already proving stubborn before the shock of war.

The next few months will reveal whether the Fed can still engineer the soft landing it has been aiming for, or whether the global energy shock forces a rethink.

March 31, 2026April 1, 2026

Eurozone inflation ticked higher in March 2026

Eurozone inflation has risen for the first time in months, with the March 2026 flash estimate showing headline inflation at 2.5%, up from 1.9% in February.

The jump is driven almost entirely by a renewed surge in energy prices, which climbed 4.9% year‑on‑year.

Core inflation eased to 2.3%, reinforcing the view that underlying domestic pressures continue to cool despite the headline spike. Services inflation also softened slightly.

For the European Central Bank, the data introduce fresh uncertainty. While policymakers have been preparing markets for potential rate cuts later this year, the energy‑led rebound may force a more cautious move in the future.

March 25, 2026March 25, 2026

Steady February 2026 UK Inflation Masks Rising Risks from Iran Conflict

UK inflation before war shock filters through

The UK’s inflation rate remained unchanged at 3% in February, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics.

After months of gradual easing, the pause reflects a delicate moment for the UK economy, with price pressures beginning to shift beneath the surface.

Clothing was the biggest upward driver, with prices rising this year after falling during the same period in 2025.

This was offset by cheaper petrol, though those figures were captured before the recent surge in global oil prices triggered by the outbreak of war involving Iran.

While inflation is far below the peaks seen a few years ago, households are still contending with the reality that prices continue to rise—just more slowly.

ONS data

The ONS also introduced supermarket scanner data for the first time, offering a more accurate picture of food costs.

Economists warn that the conflict‑driven spike in oil and gas prices could push inflation higher again later in the year, with some forecasts suggesting a potential rise towards 4.6%.

Businesses already reliant on fuel, such as regional bus operators, report steep cost increases that may soon feed through to consumers.

The government insists it is working to ease cost‑of‑living pressures, though global events may limit its room for manoeuvre.

March 19, 2026March 19, 2026

Bank of England Holds Rates at 3.75% as Gulf Tensions Cloud the Outlook

The Bank of England has held interest rates at 3.75%, opting for caution as the economic shock from the escalating conflict involving Iran ripples through global energy markets.

The Monetary Policy Committee delivered a unanimous vote to pause, a notable shift from earlier in the year when a spring rate cut had seemed almost inevitable.

The Bank now expects inflation to rise again in the coming months, potentially reaching 3.5% as higher oil and gas prices feed through to fuel, household energy bills, and business costs.

Governor Andrew Bailey reportedly stressed that monetary policy cannot counteract a supply‑side shock of this nature, warning that the path of inflation will depend heavily on how quickly safe shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz can be restored.

For households, the hold means no immediate relief on borrowing costs. Fixed‑rate mortgage deals have already been drifting higher as lenders price in the possibility of prolonged instability.

Some brokers report a surge in “panic buying” of mortgages as borrowers rush to lock in rates before they climb further. Savers, meanwhile, may see modestly improved offers, though competition remains muted.

Up or down?

The key question now is whether the next move is up or down. Before the conflict, markets had pencilled in two rate cuts for 2026.

That expectation has evaporated. Traders now see a non‑trivial chance of a rise to 4% later in the year, though economists caution that weak growth and a softening labour market could still restrain the Bank from tightening unless inflation accelerates sharply.

Over the next six weeks, policymakers will be watching energy prices, shipping conditions, and wage data closely.

For now, the Bank has chosen to wait, watch, and hope the shock proves temporary — but the margin for error is narrowing.

March 19, 2026March 19, 2026

U.S. wholesale prices jump – signalling stubborn inflation pressures

U.S. wholesale prices rose far more sharply than expected in February 2026, underscoring the persistence of inflationary pressures across the economy and complicating the Federal Reserve’s path on interest rates.

The Producer Price Index (PPI), which tracks the prices businesses receive for goods and services, climbed 0.7% on the month—more than double economists’ forecasts. Annual PPI inflation accelerated to 3.4%, its highest level in a year.

The increase was broad-based. Goods prices rose 1.1%, driven by notable jumps in food and energy.

Fresh and dry vegetables surged nearly 49%, while energy costs climbed 2.3%. But the more troubling signal for policymakers came from services, where prices advanced 0.5%.

Portfolio management fees and brokerage-related services saw particularly strong increases, suggesting that inflation is becoming more deeply embedded in the services sector.

Markets reacted swiftly. U.S. stock futures slipped and Treasury yields moved higher as traders pushed expectations for the next Fed rate cut on to December 2026.

With geopolitical tensions continuing to push oil prices towards and above $100 a barrel, the latest data reinforces concerns that inflation may remain elevated for longer than hoped.

For the Fed, the message is clear: the fight against inflation is far from over.

March 18, 2026March 18, 2026

The Market’s Coiled Spring: Why Ultra‑Tight Ranges Rarely End Quietly

Coiled spring - pure stock market energy

Markets rarely sit still without reason. When they do — as they have in recent sessions, grinding sideways in an ultra‑tight range — it signals not calm but compression.

Price action becomes like a coiled spring: energy building, tension rising, and traders waiting for the moment when restraint snaps into motion.

This week’s narrow trading bands reflect a market holding its breath. Geopolitical tension in the Middle East, oil volatility, and a Federal Reserve decision all loom over investors, yet equities have refused to break down.

Futures are edging higher, European indices are opening firmer, and even the tech wobble — with Nvidia’s muted reaction to its latest showcase — hasn’t derailed broader sentiment

Tight range – a waiting game.

Historically, such tight ranges rarely resolve with a whimper. When volatility is suppressed for too long, the eventual breakout tends to be sharp and directional. The question, of course, is which way.

Right now, the evidence suggests upward. Markets have absorbed war‑driven oil swings, shrugged off hedge‑fund losses, and continued to find buyers on dips.

Breadth is stabilising, and risk appetite — surprisingly resilient given the backdrop — is creeping back into European and Asian sessions.

That doesn’t guarantee a bullish surge, but it does suggest the path of least resistance is higher.

Fed tone

If the Fed avoids surprising investors and signals comfort with the current trajectory, the spring is more likely to uncoil to the upside.

A dovish‑leaning tone could ignite a breakout as sidelined capital rushes back into equities. Conversely, a hawkish shock would release the same stored energy — but violently downward.

The market is coiled. The catalyst is imminent. And when the range finally breaks, it won’t be subtle.

You know, it almost doesn’t matter what disasters are ongoing in the world – the stock market just wants to win and go up!

Just how bad does it have to be before the stock market corrects? And what will be the catalyst to make that happen?

Debt, credit concerns, geopolitical tension, political scandal, Epstein, a rogue nuclear attack, AI failure, war or just another Trump tariff scenario?

Who knows? And does anybody really care as long as ‘making money’ isn’t interrupted.