As anticipated in the U.S., prices rose in August 2024, while the annual inflation rate fell to its lowest point since February 2021, according to a Labor Department report on Wednesday 11th September 2024. This development likely now paves the way for a Federal Reserve interest rate reduction next weekRead More →
Is the U.S. economy already weaker than the headline data suggests and should the U.S. Federal Reserve already be easing? In the U.S. recent data (Friday 30th August 2024) showed the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve’s favored measure of inflation, ticked up 0.2% last month, asRead More →
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) reached a new record high on Monday 26th August 2024, closing at 41240. Investors have responded positively to the Federal Reserve’s recent indications that interest rate cuts are highly probable to commence in September 2024. Market dynamics and sentiment The rise of the DJIARead More →
No surprise here then as the Fed have been signalling a cut for some time now The Fed summary stated: “The vast majority” of participants at the July 30-31 meeting “observed that, if the data continued to come in about as expected, it would likely be appropriate to ease policyRead More →
U.S. consumer prices (CPI) increased at the slowest rate in over three years last month, further supporting the argument for the Fed to begin reducing interest rates. According to the U.S. Labor Department, prices climbed 2.9% in the 12 months leading up to July 2024, marking the smallest yearly riseRead More →
The stock markets mix of toil and trouble is in the cauldron ready for a bear market in 2025, if not before. Why? These concerns are now all combining, and it will likely add-up to a bear market of around 25% in 2025 (this is my best guess). Remember –Read More →
Has the Fed over-cooked it this time by waiting too long to reduce interest rates? U.S. stock markets threw a wobbly after the latest employment data and after the Fed delayed its first rate cut… again. September 2024 now looks likely for that first cut – but by how much:Read More →
FOMC hold rates steady at 5.25% – 5.50% Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell ended a press conference in which he gave markets exactly what they wanted; a strong indication of a September 2024 rate cut. Powell says September 2024 rate cut ‘on the table’ if inflation continues to cool. FederalRead More →
On Friday 26th July 2024, U.S. stocks surged, and Wall Street concluded a volatile week on an upbeat note as investors considered the latest U.S. inflation data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average soared 654 points to settle at 40589. The S&P 500 climbed to 5459 while the Nasdaq Composite advancedRead More →
The personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) increased 0.1% in June 2024 and was up 2.5% from a year ago, with the annual rate showing a slight decline from the prior month Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, showed a monthly increase of 0.2% and 2.6% on the year,Read More →
Gold prices climbed to $2,482 per ounce, hitting an all-time high. Gold prices continued to peak at new record highs Tuesday and Wednesday 15th and 16th July 2024. On Monday 15th July 2024, Powell reportedly said the Fed won’t wait for inflation to reach the central bank’s 2% target before it begins cutting,Read More →
Jerome Powell appears to be further paving the way for a rate cut at the next meeting in July 2024. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reportedly said Monday 15th July 2024 that the central bank will not wait until inflation hits 2% to cut interest rates. Powell referenced the idea that centralRead More →
Jerome Powell on Tuesday 9th July 2024 reportedly expressed concern that holding interest rates too high for too long could jeopardize economic growth. This comment came ahead of the consumer price index reading due this week. Preparing for a two-day session on Capitol Hill, the central bank chief stated thatRead More →
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has expressed satisfaction with the current progress in the inflation battle but indicated a desire for additional positive data before considering a reduction in interest rates. “We want to be more confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2% before we start the processRead More →
The ‘Sahm Rule’ serves as a heuristic indicator employed by the Federal Reserve to ascertain the onset of a recession in the economy. The Sahm Rule is a real-time evaluation tool based on monthly unemployment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Named after economist Claudia Sahm, it forecastsRead More →
The S&P 500 soared to a new high, surpassing 5400 for the first time on Wednesday 12 June 2024, following the Federal Reserve’s latest policy statement and the May 2024 inflation report, which suggested a softening of inflationary pressures. The S&P 500 index rose by 0.85%, closing at around 5421Read More →
The U.S. economy exceeded job growth expectations in May 2024, alleviating concerns of a labour market downturn but potentially diminishing the Federal Reserve’s motivation to cut interest rates. Non-farm payrolls surged by 272,000 for the month – a significant increase from April’s 165,000 and surpassing the consensus forecast of 190,000.Read More →
Bad economic news appears to have had an interesting impact on the stock market recently. Traditionally, negative economic data might be anticipated to result in falling stock prices; however, recent trends have diverged from this norm. News trend In the past two months, negative economic news has had a paradoxically positiveRead More →
The federal debt reportedly reached $34.5 trillion, marking an increase of approximately $11 trillion since March 2020. This surge has sparked discussions among government and financial leaders, with a notable Wall Street firm questioning whether the associated costs could threaten the stock market’s upward trend. The Congressional Budget Office projectsRead More →
All three major indices closed at records on 15th May 2024 The Dow climbed 0.88%, while the S&P 500 gained 1.17%, ending the session above 5,300 for the first time. The tech-related Nasdaq Composite closed higher by 1.40%. Dow closed at a new high of: 39908 S&P 500 closed at a new high of: 5308 Nasdaq CompositeRead More →
The decision comes as inflation, which measures price rises over a period of time, remains above the Bank’s 2% target at 3.2%. But bank says cuts are coming. Is the 2% target still a sensible benchmark? The 2% inflation target set by central banks has been a widely adopted benchmarkRead More →
The Fed have deliberated over ‘transitory’ inflation – (they got that wrong). They have teased us about when rates will be cut (still waiting). And now we are told no rate cut but: ‘the next rate move is unlikely to be up!’ Probably better to say and do nothing atRead More →
Inflation has become a persistent challenge for the Fed The battle against inflation persists, gradually impacting the U.S. economy and presenting substantial challenges for the Federal Reserve. Despite concerted efforts to control it, inflation remains stubbornly remains, leaving policymakers in a dilemma – to stimulate economic growth or to curbRead More →
Nvidia, manufacturer of one of the most advanced graphics processing units (GPUs), has significantly benefited from the artificial intelligence (AI) surge due to the high demand for its microchips. The company’s shares have fallen 10% from their recent all-time high, which was over $950. On Tuesday, 9th April 2024, theRead More →
The U.S. economy is on a rip, with employers adding around 303,000 jobs in March 2024 – the largest increase in almost a year. As the world’s largest economy continues to surge, questions arise about the Federal Reserve’s next move regarding interest rates. Stronger-than-expected Job Growth The unemployment rate fellRead More →
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated on Wednesday 3rd April 2024 that policymakers will need time to assess the current inflation situation, leaving the schedule for potential interest rate reductions unclear. Referring to the stronger-than-anticipated price pressures at the year’s onset, Powell reportedly stated that he and his colleagues areRead More →