Category: Chaos

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No tariffs for Russia?

Russia escapes Trumps tariffs

Russia’s exemption from recent U.S. tariffs has sparked curiosity and debate. While many nations face new trade duties, Russia remains notably absent from the list

This decision stems from a combination of geopolitical, economic, and strategic factors.

One key reason is the existing sanctions imposed on Russia by several countries, including the United States, following its invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

These sanctions have already significantly curtailed trade between Russia and its global partners, rendering additional tariffs less impactful.

For instance, U.S.-Russia trade has dwindled to a fraction of its pre-war levels, focusing primarily on strategic goods like fertilisers and chemicals.

Another factor is the ongoing diplomatic efforts to address the conflict in Ukraine. Some analysts suggest that exempting Russia from tariffs could be a strategic move to maintain a channel for negotiation and potential cooperation.

This approach might aim to encourage Russia’s participation in peace talks or other diplomatic initiatives.

Additionally, the structure of Russia’s exports plays a role. Certain goods, such as fertilisers, are critical to global supply chains, and imposing tariffs could disrupt markets and harm economies reliant on these imports.

While the decision has drawn criticism, it underscores the complexities of balancing economic policies with geopolitical realities.

The debate continues as the global community navigates these challenging dynamics caused through the imposition of U.S. tariffs.

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Tech stocks propel market rally amid Trump’s tariff pause

Stocks move back up

On Monday 14th April 2025, the stock market experienced a notable mini rally, driven by the tech sector’s resurgence following a weekend announcement of a temporary tariff pause.

President Trump’s decision to exempt smartphones, computers, and other electronics from steep tariffs provided a much-needed reprieve for the industry, sparking optimism among investors.

Major tech companies like Apple, Nvidia, and Amazon saw significant gains, with Apple shares surging by 7.5%. The Nasdaq Composite, heavily weighted with tech stocks, climbed 1.9%, while the S&P 500 rose 1.5%.

This rally marked a stark contrast to the volatility of the previous week, where tariff uncertainties had sent shockwaves through the market.

The tariff pause, although temporary and restricted to 20%, helped to alleviate immediate concerns about rising costs for consumers and businesses.

Importers were spared from choosing between absorbing higher expenses or passing them on to customers. This relief was particularly impactful for companies reliant on Chinese manufacturing, as the exemptions covered a wide range of tech products.

Market analysts noted that the rally was not just a reaction to the tariff news but also a reflection of the tech sector’s resilience.

Despite facing challenges earlier in the year, tech companies have continued to innovate and adapt, maintaining their position as a driving force in the U.S. and world economies.

However, the rally’s sustainability remains uncertain. The administration’s mixed messages about future tariffs have left investors cautious.

While Monday’s gains were encouraging, the broader market continues to grapple with the unpredictability of trade policies.

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Trump takes wrecking ball to global trade – sets stock markets on fire and plays golf – all in one week

Reckless tariffs

Is this a fair ‘take’ on the last weeks tariff turmoil?

President Trump’s tariffs have left a significant mark on global trade and financial markets, creating waves that continue to shape global economic dynamics.

The tariffs, initially aimed at reducing the U.S. trade deficit and protecting domestic industries, triggered a rollercoaster ride for stock markets and strained international relations.

Highs to lows

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500 experienced sharp declines following the announcement of sweeping tariffs. At their lowest points, the Dow fell to 37226, the Nasdaq dropped to 15266, and the S&P 500 sank to 4956.

These figures marked significant losses, with trillions of dollars wiped off the market in just a few days.

The volatility was exacerbated by fears of a global trade war and the uncertainty surrounding the tariffs’ implementation.

Tariff turmoil and 90 day pause

In response to the market turmoil, President Trump announced a 90-day pause on most tariffs, providing temporary relief to investors and businesses. This decision led to a rebound in stock markets, with indices recovering some of their losses.

However, the relief was short-lived, as tensions with China escalated. While tariffs on many trading partners were paused, China’s tariff rate was increased to a staggering 125%.

This move further strained U.S.-China relations and added pressure on industries reliant on Chinese imports.

Tech garners favour

The tech sector, heavily dependent on global supply chains, was among the hardest hit. Tariffs on components like microchips and finished products such as smartphones and computers disrupted production and increased costs.

Companies faced challenges in maintaining profitability and passing on the increased costs to consumers. The eventual reduction and cancellation of some tariffs provided a lifeline to the tech industry, allowing businesses to stabilize operations and reduce prices.

However, the uncertainty surrounding trade policies continued to pose challenges for the sector.

Market turmoil?

Was this the ultimate in market ‘management’ as President Trump posted on his social media platform, Truth Social, that it was a ‘great time to buy’ just hours before announcing the 90-day tariff pause.?

This statement, made at 9:37 am., came shortly before the announcement, which caused stock markets to surge significantly. The timing of his post raised eyebrows and sparked discussions about potential insider trading concerns

China retaliates

China’s response to the tariffs was swift and retaliatory. Beijing imposed its own tariffs on U.S. imports, raising rates to 125%. This retaliation targeted key U.S. industries, including agriculture and technology, further escalating the trade conflict.

The Chinese yuan also hit its lowest level against the dollar since the global financial crisis. These measures highlighted the deepening economic rift between the world’s two largest economies.

The effects of President Trump’s tariffs underscore the complexities of modern trade policies. While intended to protect domestic industries, the tariffs created significant economic disruptions, both domestically and globally.

The stock market volatility, strained international relations, and challenges faced by industries like technology illustrate the far-reaching consequences of such policies.

As the world continues to navigate the aftermath of these tariffs, the importance of balanced and strategic trade policies becomes increasingly evident.

Markets moved up, unsurprisingly, after Trump announced the tech tariff adjustment

Over the weekend, President Trump reportedly made several statements about tariffs on tech products, creating some confusion.

Initially, it was announced that smartphones, computers, and other electronics would be temporarily excluded from the steep tariffs.

However, Trump later clarified that these products were not entirely exempt but had been moved to a different ‘tariff bucket.’ He reportedly stated that they would still face a 20% tariff as part of broader measures targeting Chinese goods.

Trump also hinted at upcoming tariffs on semiconductors and the entire electronics supply chain, emphasising the need for the U.S. to produce more of these components domestically.

President Trump reportedly described this as part of a ‘National Security Tariff Investigation’. These announcements have left tech companies and investors uncertain about the long-term implications for the industry.

Tariffs are like a spider’s web cast over the world with the spider, crawling around collecting from its prey.

Trump’s tariffs continue to ‘infect’ world trade, and they will be here for a while yet.

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Just a thought…

Fickleness of the stock market

Do you believe in the ‘collective unconscious’, a universal mind to which all humanity is connected?

In the context of the financial world, the stock market is based on unwavering fundamental mathematics… numbers. However, is often driven by sentiment, instinct, hopes and fears.

They both function in a similar manner.

In other words, it is essentially a sentiment tracker.

This was very evident in the stock market movement during ‘normal’ trading hours immediately preceding U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff plan unveiling, contrasted with extended trading.

Investors had time to digest the sheer weight of the heavy tariffs on countries across the globe – we then witnessed an instant stock reversal after almost ‘normal’ trading before.

The point

Trump hinted at leniency on tariffs days before revealing his true intentions. However, that sense of mercy was absent, as the tariffs were sweeping and severe.

To describe Trump’s plan as a seismic shift in the economic and financial order might be understatement.

It will take time for tariff price changes to filter into the economy, but the stock market, reflecting the collective unconscious of investors, registered this shock instantly – just minutes after a stock climb.

That’s the markets for you.

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What’s a tariff?

Trump's tariffs

Some of the strangest locations affected by Trump’s tariffs include an uninhabited island near Antarctica?

U.S. President Donald Trump’s ‘reciprocal tariffs‘ hit major trading partners around the world, but some tiny islands and remote locations were also unlikely targets.

These ‘odd’ choices have cast doubt on the validity of the calculation used to fire off these tariff salvos.

President Donald Trump set a baseline tariff rate of 10% across the board, with a raft of levies affecting over 180 countries.

Meanwhile global markets, but especially U.S. stocks continue to tumble in a freefall rout!

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Russell 2000 goes into bear territory as Dow Jones – S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit correction!

Stocks fall

The Russell 2000, a key benchmark for small-cap U.S. stocks, has officially entered bear market territory.

This means the index has fallen more than 20% from its all-time high in late November 2024. The decline was accelerated by the recent rollout of President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs, which have raised concerns about rising costs, economic softening, and global supply chain disruptions3.

Small-cap stocks, which were initially seen as beneficiaries of Trump’s policies due to their domestic focus, are now facing significant challenges. Many of these companies are particularly vulnerable to input cost shocks and lack the financial flexibility of larger firms.

Analysts warn that the combination of higher costs and a slowing economy is squeezing profits, leaving small caps in a precarious position.

The Russell 2000’s downturn highlights the broader market volatility triggered by the tariff measures. While other major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are in correction territory, the Russell 2000 was the first to enter a bear market.

Russell 2000 index

Russell 2000 index

This development underscores the heightened risks for small-cap stocks in the current economic climate.

Despite the challenges, some strategists believe there could be opportunities for recovery, particularly if the Federal Reserve takes steps to cut interest rates.

However, Trump’s tariffs have introduced uncertainty into this policy, as inflation is likely to increase, casting doubt on the possibility of further interest rate cuts.

For now, the Russell 2000’s performance serves as a stark reminder of the delicate balance between protectionist policies and market stability.

The Russell 2000, a key benchmark for small-cap U.S. stocks, has officially entered bear market territory.

Dow Jones decline – the ripple effects of tariff policies

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has seen a sharp decline, falling from its all-time high of 45,073.63 points in December 2024 to its current level of 38,314.86 points—a drop of approximately 15%.

Dow Jones one-year chart

Dow Jones one-year chart

This downturn reflects a mix of economic challenges, including the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariff policies.

Trump’s sweeping tariffs, introduced as part of his ‘Liberation Day‘ initiative, aimed to bolster American manufacturing by imposing taxes on imported goods. While the policy sought to ‘level the playing field’, it triggered significant disruptions in global trade.

Retaliatory tariffs from key trading partners, including China and the European Union, compounded the issue, ultimately leading to higher costs for U.S. businesses and consumers.

The tariffs have also strained supply chains, particularly in industries reliant on international components. This has contributed to inflationary pressures, further dampening investor sentiment.

The tech sector, already grappling with regulatory scrutiny, has been hit hard, with companies facing increased production costs.

Nasdaq tech 100 one-year chart

Nasdaq tech 100 one-year chart

While some view the market’s decline as a natural correction, others warn of prolonged economic challenges, especially with the uncertainty surround Trump’s tariff agenda.

For investors, the key lies in navigating these turbulent times with caution and a focus on long-term fundamentals.

As the Dow adjusts to these pressures, its performance underscores the far-reaching consequences of trade policies on global markets.

S&P 500 one-year chart

S&P 500 one-year chart
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Dow drops 2200 points Friday 4th April 2025 – S&P 500 loses 10% in 2 days as Trump’s tariff rout deepens – just two days after ‘Liberation Day!’

Stocks down

The stock market was smashed for a second day Friday 4th April 2025 after China retaliated with new tariffs on U.S. goods, sparking fears President Donald Trump has ignited a global trade war that will lead to a global recession.

Stock market damage

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 2,231.07 points, or 5.5%, to 38,314.86 on Friday 4th April 2025, the biggest decline since June 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic.

This follows a 1,679-point decline on Thursday 3rd April 2025 and marks the first time ever that it has shed more than 1,500 points on consecutive days.

The S&P 500 collapsed 5.97% to 5,074.08, the biggest decline since March 2020. The benchmark shed 4.84% on Thursday 3rd April 2025 and is now down more than 17% off its recent high.

The Nasdaq Composite, home to many well-known tech companies that sell to China and manufacture there as well, dropped 5.8%, to 15,587.79.

This follows a nearly 6% drop on Thursday 3rd April 2025 and takes the index down by 22% from its December 2024 record – pushing it into a bear market.

The selling was wide ranging with only 14 members of the S&P 500 higher on the day. Major market indexes closed at their lows of the session.

China’s commerce ministry said the country will impose a 34% levy on all U.S. products, disappointing investors who had hoped countries would negotiate with Trump before retaliating.

Technology stocks led the massive rout Friday

Apple shares slumped 7%, bringing its loss for the week to 13%.

Nvidia dropped 7% during the session.

Tesla fell 10%.

All three companies have large exposure to China and are among the hardest hit from Beijing’s retaliatory tariffs.

The bull market is dead, and it was destroyed by self-inflicted wounds!

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China to impose 34% retaliatory tariff on all goods imported from the U.S.

Trade war

China has reportedly announced a significant escalation in its trade dispute with the United States, declaring a 34% retaliatory tariff on all U.S. goods.

This move, set to take effect on 10th April 2025 and comes in response to the sweeping tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump’s administration earlier this week.

The Chinese Ministry of Finance reportedly stated that these measures are aimed at safeguarding China’s economic interests and countering what it describes as ‘unilateral bullying’ by the U.S. government.

The tariffs will apply across a wide range of American exports, potentially impacting industries such as agriculture, technology, and manufacturing.

This development has heightened global market uncertainty, with investors bracing for further economic disruptions.

The ongoing tit-for-tat measures between the two economic giants underscore the fragility of international trade relations in the current climate.

Markets dropped on the news!

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Dow dives 1600 points after Trump’s tariff attack – S&P 500 and Nasdaq drop the most since 2020

Stocks markets fall

The U.S. stock market experienced a dramatic plunge following President Donald Trump’s announcement of sweeping tariffs, marking one of the most significant market downturns since 2020.

On 3rd April 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted by 1,600 points, a staggering 4% drop, closing at 40,546.

Dow Jones one day chart

The S&P 500 fell by 4.8%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite suffered a 6% decline, reflecting widespread investor anxiety.

S&P 500 one day chart

Trump’s tariffs, which include a baseline 10% levy on imports from all trading partners and higher rates for specific countries, have sparked fears of a global trade war.

The effective tariff rate for China, for instance, has risen to 54%, raising concerns about supply chain disruptions and inflation. Major industries, including technology, retail, and manufacturing, were hit hard.

Apple shares dropped nearly 10%, while companies like Nike and Nvidia saw significant losses.

Apple one day chart

The market reaction underscores the uncertainty surrounding the economic impact of these tariffs. Analysts warn that the measures could dampen consumer spending, increase inflation, and slow economic growth.

The ripple effects were felt globally, with European and Asian markets also experiencing declines. The Nikkei index declined a further 3%.

Nikkei Index five-day chart

Despite the turmoil, Trump defended the tariffs, likening them to a necessary ‘operation’ for the economy. He expressed confidence that the markets would eventually rebound, emphasising the long-term benefits of reshoring manufacturing and generating federal revenue.

As investors grapple with the implications of these policies, the focus remains on potential retaliatory measures from affected countries and the broader impact on global trade dynamics.

The sharp market sell-off serves as a stark reminder of the delicate balance between protectionist policies and economic stability in an interconnected world.

The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether these tariffs lead to lasting economic shifts or temporary market volatility.

U.S. companies are experiencing more harm from Trump’s tariffs. He wants manufacturing to come back to America – but after decades of globalization fine tuning – that is no easy task.

Are markets underestimating the impact of the tariffs on inflation?

Are markets pricing in the fact that Trump’s tariff policy will not be fully followed through?

The U.S. would be lucky to see a single rate cut from the Federal Reserve this year – and that will unsettle investors.

The U.S. economy could now only expand by between 1% and 1.5% this year – this would be a significant change in the growth outlook when compared with the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) projection of 2.7% U.S. growth made earlier this year.

If we get close to 1%, we get close to ‘stall’ speed and then it could just stop – and that will mean recession or worse for the U.S.

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U.S. so-called Liberation Day arrives – It’s tariff time baby! Do you like my chart?

Trumps tariffs

Tariffs are terrific, according to Trump – it’s his most favourite word.

Donald Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs have sent shockwaves through global trade, marking a dramatic escalation in his tariff trade war strategy. The day of economic independence.

The President of the United States proudly showed off his tariff agenda neatly displayed on a chart akin to a ‘pub quiz scoreboard’.

In the White House Rose Garden on 2nd April 2025 Trump happily unleashed tariff turmoil on a global scale.

Announced with his usual characteristic bravado, these tariffs were ‘calculated’ to impose ‘reciprocal’ charges on imports from over 180 countries, including allies like the UK, the European Union and Canada.

It’s not fair

Trump claims this move will restore fairness in global trade and bolster American manufacturing, but critics warn of dire economic consequences.

The tariffs vary by country, with the UK facing a 10% levy on all exports to the U.S., while the EU faces a 20% tariff. China, already subject to existing tariffs, now faces a combined rate of 54%.

The automotive industry has been hit particularly hard, with a 25% tariff on foreign-made vehicles, threatening thousands of jobs around the world.

Trump’s announcement, delivered in the White House Rose Garden, was accompanied by a chart comparing tariffs imposed by other countries on U.S. goods.

He argued that these measures are necessary to counter years of unfair trade practices and to ‘make America wealthy again’.

However, economists and analysts have expressed concerns that these tariffs could plunge the global economy into a downturn, disrupt decades-old trade alliances, and spark retaliatory measures from affected nations.

Keep calm and carry on

The UK government, led by Prime Minister Keir Starmer, has reportedly vowed to take a calm and pragmatic approach, emphasizing the importance of securing a wider economic prosperity deal with the U.S.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves acknowledged that the UK would not be ‘out of the woods’ even if exemptions are secured, citing the broader impact of global tariffs.

As nations brace for the fallout, Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs may well redefine the landscape of international trade, for better or worse. The world watches as the ripple effects unfold.

Understandably stock markets reacted badly as futures tumbled. The Dow Jones was down 1000 points. Nikkei down 4%. S&P 500 down 3%.

UK and EU markets opened down too

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Trump’s tariff gambit will most likely damage an already fragile looking U.S. economy

Broken

President Donald Trump is to begin the biggest gamble of his second term – ‘Liberation Day’ wagering that broad-based global hitting tariffs on imports will instigate a new era for the U.S. economy.

The concern right now is no one outside the administration knows quite how those goals will be achieved, and what will be the price to pay.

Basically, tariffs are a tax on imports and, theoretically, are inflationary. In practice, though, it doesn’t always work that way.

The U.S. economy is showing potential signs of stagflation where growth is slowing, and inflation is proving stickier than expected.

Trump’s Liberation Day is here – we will see what that actually means in practice.

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Trump announces 25% tariffs on car imports to U.S. and pledges pharma tariffs to come

Trump's Tariffs

Trump’s tariffs have been a cornerstone of his trade policy, aimed at protecting American industries and reducing trade deficits

These measures include tariffs on steel, aluminum, and a wide range of goods from countries like China, Canada, and the European Union.

While supporters argue that these tariffs have bolstered domestic manufacturing and created jobs, critics highlight the retaliatory tariffs imposed by other nations, which have affected American exporters.

President Donald Trump said he will soon announce tariffs targeting automobiles and pharmaceuticals.

Trump later added the timber and semiconductor industries to his list.

It was unclear whether the newly announced sector-specific tariffs would take effect after the tit-for-tat ‘reciprocal tariffs’ – which are set to take effect on for 2nd April 2025

The president’s latest comments at a Cabinet meeting came hours after he unveiled a plan to place 25% tariffs on all countries that buy oil and gas from Venezuela.

Trump’s tariffs have had widespread economic effects, both domestically and globally

Higher Prices for Consumers

Tariffs increase the cost of imported goods, which often leads to higher prices for consumers. This can reduce purchasing power and affect living standards.

Impact on Businesses

Companies relying on imported materials face higher production costs due to tariffs. Some businesses may pass these costs onto consumers, while others might struggle to remain competitive.

Retaliatory Measures

Countries affected by U.S. tariffs often impose their own tariffs on American goods. This can hurt U.S. exporters and lead to trade wars.

Economic Growth

Studies suggest that tariffs can reduce GDP growth. For example, the U.S. GDP has been estimated to decrease by 0.4% due to these measures.

Employment

While tariffs aim to protect domestic jobs, they can also lead to job losses in industries affected by higher input costs or reduced export opportunities.

Global Trade Dynamics

Tariffs disrupt international trade relationships, leading to uncertainty and reduced investment in affected sectors.

These measures have sparked retaliatory tariffs from other countries, creating a complex web of trade disputes further sowing chaos and unrest.

Markets have reacted negatively to Trumps tariffs.

One thing is certain regarding the imposition of Trump’s tariffs – consumers suffer!

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Fallout from Trump’s self-imposed tariffs and DOGE cuts is visibly damaging the U.S.

DOGE and U.S. Tariffs

The economic impact of tariffs and budget cuts by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is becoming increasingly evident

Major corporations like Nike and Accenture, for example have recently reported significant challenges stemming from these policies. Nike has warned of a sharp decline in sales for the current quarter, attributing this to tariffs and weakened consumer sentiment.

Similarly, Accenture has experienced a reduction in revenue due to cuts in U.S. government contracts, highlighting the ripple effects of reduced federal spending. It is a good guide to U.S. consumer sentiment.

The tariffs, part of a broader economic strategy, aim to protect domestic industries but have led to higher production costs and strained international trade relations.

The European Union has postponed its own tariffs on U.S. goods, seeking to negotiate a more favourable agreement and mitigate potential economic fallout.

These developments underscore the delicate balance between protecting domestic interests and maintaining a respectable global economic position.

Some argue that the U.S. tariffs and budget cuts may ultimately harm both businesses and consumers, as higher costs are passed down the supply chain.

As the 2nd April 2025 implementation date for new tariffs approaches, businesses and policymakers alike face mounting pressure to address these challenges and find solutions that support economic growth while minimizing adverse effects.

The coming months will be crucial in determining the long-term impact of these policies.

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Trump and his tariff agenda

Trade tariffs

The United States has intensified its tariff policies, marking a significant shift in global trade dynamics

On 4th March 2025, President Donald Trump announced a sweeping increase in tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, raising them to 25% across the board. This move, aimed at bolstering domestic industries, has sparked widespread reactions both domestically and internationally.

The tariffs, which now include a broader range of products such as nuts, bolts, and soda cans, have drawn sharp criticism from key U.S. allies, including Canada, the United Kingdom, and Australia.

U.S and the EU

The European Union has responded with countermeasures, imposing tariffs on $28 billion worth of American goods, set to take effect on 1st April 2025. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen expressed regret over the U.S. decision but emphasised the need to protect European consumers and businesses.

Domestically, the tariffs have been met with mixed reactions. While U.S. steel and aluminum producers have welcomed the measures, citing potential job creation and increased investment, downstream manufacturers that rely on these metals are bracing for higher costs.

Economists warn that the tariffs could lead to increased prices for consumers and potential disruptions in supply chains. Trump has indicated many times that the tariffs levelled at the U.S. are unfair and unequal.

The Trump administration has justified the tariffs as a means to encourage foreign companies to establish manufacturing facilities in the United States. However, critics argue that the policy could backfire, leading to retaliatory measures from trading partners and a potential slowdown in global economic growth.

As the global trade landscape continues to evolve, the long-term impact of these tariffs remains uncertain. Businesses and policymakers alike are closely monitoring the situation, weighing the potential benefits of protecting domestic industries against the risks of escalating trade tensions.

The coming weeks and months will be crucial in determining the effectiveness of this bold and possibly misguided economic strategy.

U.S. and Canada

The trade relationship between the U.S. and Canada has recently faced significant strain due to escalating tariff policies.

President Donald Trump announced a sharp increase in tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, raising them from 25% to 50%. This decision was reportedly in response to Ontario’s provincial government imposing higher electricity prices on U.S. customers.

However, after discussions between Ontario Premier Doug Ford and U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Ontario agreed to pause the electricity surcharge.

As a result, the U.S. decided to maintain the original 25% tariff rate instead of doubling it. Despite this temporary resolution, tensions remain high, with Canada preparing to implement retaliatory tariffs on $30 billion worth of American goods.

These developments highlight the ongoing challenges in U.S. – Canada trade relations, with both nations navigating the complexities of economic and political interests.

U.S. and China

The U.S. – China trade tensions have escalated significantly in recent months. President Donald Trump recently imposed a 20% tariff on all imports from China, reportedly citing concerns over China’s role in the flow of fentanyl into the U.S.

This move has reignited the trade war that began during Trump’s first term.

In response, China has implemented retaliatory measures, including a 15% tariff on U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) and coal, as well as a 10% tariff on crude oil, agricultural machinery, and large-engine cars.

Additionally, China has restricted the export of rare earth minerals and metals, which are critical for U.S. tech and green energy industries.

Both nations have expressed a willingness to engage in dialogue, but the situation remains tense. The economic impact of these tariffs is being closely monitored, as they have the potential to disrupt global supply chains and affect industries worldwide.

U.S. and Mexico

The U.S. – Mexico trade conflict has intensified with the U.S. imposing a 25% tariff on Mexican imports, excluding oil and energy products, which face a 10% tariff.

This decision, aimed at addressing trade deficits and border concerns, prompted Mexico to announce retaliatory tariffs targeting $20 billion worth of U.S. goods. Critics argue these measures undermine the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) and could disrupt supply chains.

Both nations are bracing for the economic impact, with businesses and consumers facing potential cost increases. This trade dispute highlights the challenges of balancing domestic priorities while maintaining strong international partnerships in a connected global economy.

And there’s more…

Russia and Ukraine peace deal according to Trump. Taking rare earth and other minerals from Ukraine in a ‘deal’. The potential reshaping of Gaza to become the riviera of the middle east. Talk of taking over Greenland. Making Canada the 51st state. etc. etc.

And this is just what we already know after 8 weeks of Trump in power!

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U.S. markets tumble as Trump and his administration dismiss stock slump and economic concern

U.S. stocks fall

The Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency claims to be streamlining the federal government’s spending

But it has so far sown confusion, with the Trump administration attempting to rehire employees it had previously fired.

DOGE presents a distorted reflection of the current state of the U.S. economy. U.S. President Trump has implemented a series of policies to try to stimulate effect, frequently modifying them mid-course, resulting in collateral damage within the country’s own borders.

U.S. markets have been on a downward trend and were significantly impacted on. Tesla shares have lost some 50% since Trump’s election. Consumers are also boycotting Tesla vehicles.

Tariffs, according to Trump, are meant to protect U.S. businesses and punish trade partners. But so far, it seems that the world’s biggest economy is the one suffering.

Dismal day in the markets

U.S. stocks experienced a rout Monday 10th March 2025 as fears of a recession gripped investors. The S&P 500 dropped 2.7%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.08% and the Nasdaq Composite sank 4% in its worst session since September 2022.

The White House downplayed the market slump, saying it’s not as ‘meaningful’ as business activity (what does that mean exactly)? 

Asia markets also retreated Tuesday 11th March 2025. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell around 1% amid a weaker-than-expected showing for its fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP).

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Tesla shares plunge 15% in one day – X goes off -line and Space X test flight explodes

Tesla shares down 50%

Tesla’s sell-off on Wall Street intensified on Monday, with shares of the electric vehicle maker plunging a whopping 15%, marking their worst trading day on the market since September 2020

On Friday, Tesla wrapped up a seventh straight week of losses, its longest losing streak since debuting on the Nasdaq in 2010. The stock has fallen every week since CEO Elon Musk went to Washington, D.C., to take on a major role in the Trump ‘2’ White House.

Since peaking at $479.86 on 17th December 2024 Tesla shares have lost more than 50% of their value, wiping out upward of $800 billion in market cap. Monday 10th March 2025 marked the stock’s seventh worst day on record.

Tesla 3 month share chart as of close 10th March 2025 – down a total of 50% and 15% in one day

Tesla 3 month share chart as of close 10th March 2025 – down a total of 50% and 15% in one day

Tesla led a broader slump in U.S. equities, with the Nasdaq tumbling almost 4%, its steepest decline since 2022.

During an interview on Monday 10th March 2025, Musk was reportedly asked how he manages to run his businesses while fulfilling his role in the Trump White House. He reportedly said he’s doing so – ‘with great difficulty’.

In addition to Tesla’s troubles, Musk’s social network X experienced several outages throughout the day on Monday 10th March 2025, and his company SpaceX is investigating two explosions in a row that occurred during test flights of its massive Starship rocket.

Elon Musk is also reported as saying that he expects to remain in the Trump administration for another year. He posted on X that ‘It will be fine long-term’, referencing Tesla’s steep stock price decline.

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Global markets slide into chaos as Trump pushes his ‘America First Agenda’

U.S. tariffs

Global markets have been thrown into turmoil following the announcement of sweeping tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump

U.S. tariffs, which include a 25% levy on imports from Canada and Mexico and a 10% increase on Chinese goods, have sparked fears of a global trade war. Retaliatory measures from Canada and China have only added to the uncertainty, sending shockwaves through financial markets worldwide.

The FTSE 100, London’s blue-chip index, fell by 1.3%, marking its steepest decline since October last year. Across the Atlantic, Wall Street saw significant losses, with the S&P 500 dropping 1.6% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 1.7%. European markets were not spared, as Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 plunged by 3.5% and 2.1%.

Investors are increasingly concerned about the long-term implications of these tariffs. The measures threaten to disrupt global supply chains, inflate costs, and dampen economic growth. Analysts warn that prolonged trade tensions could push the global economy closer to a recession.

The tariffs have also had a notable impact on currency markets. The U.S. dollar weakened against major currencies, with the pound rising to a six-week high of $1.27. Meanwhile, safe-haven assets like gold saw a surge in demand, with prices climbing above $2,900 per ounce.

Oil markets were not immune to the fallout, as Brent crude futures dropped to a three-month low of $70.65 per barrel. The decline reflects growing concerns over reduced demand amid escalating trade tensions.

As the world braces for further economic uncertainty, the focus now shifts to how global leaders will navigate these turbulent waters.

The stakes are high, and the path forward remains uncertain.

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Federal Reserve’s preferred recession indicator is flashing red again!

U.S. inverted yield curve

The Federal Reserve’s favourite recession indicator, the inverted yield curve, is flashing a danger sign once again.

This occurs when the U.S. yield on the 10-year Treasury note falls below that of the 3-month note. Historically, this has been a reliable predictor of economic downturns, with a strong track record over a 12-18-month timeframe.

The New York Fed closely monitors this indicator and provides monthly updates on the probability of a recession occurring within the next 12 months.

As of January 2025, the probability was just 23%, but this is expected to change significantly due to the recent inversion in the coming months.

The inversion suggests that investors are becoming more risk-averse and are anticipating a slowdown in economic activity.

While the yield curve inversion has a strong forecasting history, it is not perfect, and there is no certainty that growth will turn negative this time around

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Hackers steal $1.5 billion from Bybit exchange

Crpto theft

Bybit, one of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges, has fallen victim to the biggest crypto heist in history

Hackers managed to steal a staggering $1.5 billion in digital assets, primarily in Ethereum, from Bybit’s cold wallet, an offline storage system designed for ‘security’.

This breach has sent shockwaves through the cryptocurrency community, raising concerns about the security of digital assets.

The attack, which occurred on 21st February 2025, was reportedly traced back to the notorious North Korean hacking group, Lazarus. Known for their sophisticated cyber-attacks, the Lazarus Group exploited vulnerabilities in Bybit’s security infrastructure to gain access to the cold wallet.

Once inside, they swiftly transferred the stolen funds across multiple wallets and liquidated them through various platforms.

Bybit’s CEO, Ben Zhou, reassured users that all other cold wallets remained secure and that withdrawals were operating normally. However, the breach triggered a rush of withdrawals as users feared potential insolvency.

To mitigate the impact, Bybit secured a bridge loan from undisclosed partners to cover any unrecoverable losses and maintain operations.

Blockchain analysis firms, including Elliptic and Arkham Intelligence, have been working tirelessly to trace the stolen assets.

They have labelled the thief’s addresses in their software to prevent the funds from being cashed out through other exchanges. Despite these efforts, the stolen funds are being systematically moved through anonymous exchanges, making it challenging to recover the assets.

This incident highlights the ongoing risks associated with cryptocurrency exchanges and the need for robust security measures. As the industry grapples with the aftermath of this unprecedented heist, experts warn that large-scale thefts remain a fundamental risk in the digital asset space.

Bybit’s response and the collaborative efforts of the crypto community will be crucial in restoring trust and preventing future breaches.

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‘Unimaginable’ billionaire wealth surged in 2024 as Oxfam predicts the emergence of five trillionaires within the next 10 years

Wealthiest and poorest

In 2024, billionaire wealth surged to unprecedented levels, with a staggering $2 trillion increase in just one year, according to an Oxfam report.

This rapid growth has led to predictions that the world could see at least five trillionaires within the next decade.

To place this in some context it is has been calculated that there are approximately 150 countries with a GDP of less than $1 trillion. This includes many smaller economies and developing nations.

So, 5 single human beings will likely hold more wealth ‘individually’ than approximately 150 separate countries. One person will be worth more than an entire country!

Oxfam report

The Oxfam report highlights the stark contrast between the wealth of the world’s richest individuals and the persistent poverty faced by millions.

The report reveals that the wealth of billionaires grew three times faster in 2024 compared to the previous year.

This surge in wealth has been attributed to various factors, including booming stock markets, lucrative investments, and favorable economic policies.

However, this concentration of wealth in the hands of a few has raised concerns about growing inequality and its impact on society.

Oxfam‘s findings emphasize the urgent need for bold economic reforms to address this disparity. The report calls for higher taxes on the super-rich and the abolition of tax havens to ensure a fairer distribution of wealth.

It also highlights the importance of investing in public services, such as healthcare and education, to improve the quality of life for all citizens.

Out of whack wealth

The growing concentration of wealth among billionaires has significant implications for global inequality. While the number of people living in poverty has remained largely unchanged since 1990, the wealth of the richest individuals has skyrocketed.

This disparity underscores the need for policies that promote economic fairness and reduce inequality.

The surge in billionaire wealth in 2024 serves as a stark reminder of the growing concentration of wealth and the urgent need for economic reforms.

By implementing policies that promote a fairer distribution of wealth and investing in public services, we can work towards a more equitable society. The emergence of trillionaires within the next decade should be a wake-up call for policymakers to address the root causes of inequality and ensure a better future for all.

World’s most wealthy climbed from $13 trillion to $15 trillion in just 12 months

The combined wealth of the world’s most wealthy rose from $13 trillion to $15 trillion in just 12 months, the global charity said Sunday. It marks the second largest annual increase in billionaire wealth since Oxfam records started.

Meanwhile, the number of people living in poverty has barely changed since 1990, the charity said, citing World Bank Data.

1% of people own nearly 45% of all wealth

The richest 1% of people own nearly 45% of all wealth, while 44% of humanity are living below the World Bank poverty line of $6.85 per day, the data showed.

First trillionaire by 2027 is predicted

Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and now close ally of Trump, is on track to become the world’s first trillionaire by 2027, according to a report from Informa Connect Academy.

Musk is currently worth about around $440 billion according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

Biden warning

Outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden warned of the rise of an “oligarchy taking shape in America of extreme wealth, power and influence.”

“People should be able to make as much as they can, but pay – play by the same rules, pay their fair share in taxes,” Biden said in his farewell address.

Oxfam

Oxfam is trying to urge governments to commit to ensuring that the incomes of the top 10% are no higher than the bottom 40% worldwide.

Global economic rules should be adjusted to allow for the break-up of monopolies, and more corporate regulation and global tax policies should be adapted to ensure that the rich pay their fair share, according to the charity.

Money that is flowing to the bank accounts of the super-rich instead of much-needed investment in teachers and medicines is “not just bad for the economy — it’s bad for humanity,” said Oxfam’s Behar.

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Waning enthusiasm around Trump – AI and crypto

Lack of enthusiasm

As we progress through 2025, it’s evident that the initial excitement surrounding Donald Trump’s election win, artificial intelligence (AI), and cryptocurrency has begun to wane – but for how long?

Investors and the general public seem to be growing more cautious, reflecting a shift in sentiment towards these once highly anticipated topics.

Trump’s tariffs

In the realm of politics, Trump’s influence on the stock market has been notably erratic. His tariff threats and new policies have created uncertainty and volatility, leading investors to react negatively. Trump’s riviera suggestion for the Gaza strip, his interest in Canada and fixation for Greenland ownership have all tilted ‘standard’ political logic.

Recent announcements of additional tariffs on steel and aluminum imports have only heightened concerns, causing stock market fluctuations and dampening investor enthusiasm. The initial optimism that Trump’s policies would bolster the economy has been replaced by a more cautious outlook.

AI

Artificial intelligence, once hailed as the technological revolution of the century, is also experiencing a cooling of enthusiasm. While AI continues to make strides in various industries, the initial hype has given way to a more measured perspective.

Investors are now more wary of the long-term potential and the substantial investments required to develop AI technologies. Companies like DeepSeek, which have claimed cost efficiencies, are causing big tech firms to reevaluate their spending on AI projects, leading to a more tempered approach.

Crypto

Cryptocurrency, too, has seen mixed sentiments. Despite ongoing enthusiasm from dedicated supporters, the market’s volatility and regulatory challenges have tempered the initial excitement.

The dramatic price swings and uncertain regulatory landscape have made investors more cautious. While there are still significant investments and innovations in the crypto space, the euphoria that once surrounded it has subdued.

The excitement around Trump, AI, and cryptocurrency is not as fervent as it once was. The reality of market volatility, regulatory challenges, and the substantial investments required has led to a more cautious and measured approach.

As we move forward, it will be interesting to see how these areas evolve and whether they regain the heightened enthusiasm they once enjoyed.

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Trumps tariffs impact – what a difference a day makes!

U.S. tariff war

Trump pauses tariffs on Mexico and Canada amid China’s retaliatory measures

In a surprising turn of events, President Donald Trump announced a 30-day pause on tariffs targeting Mexico and Canada, just as China introduced retaliatory tariffs on a range of U.S. goods. This move comes amidst escalating trade tensions and a looming threat of a global trade war.

The decision to pause tariffs on Mexico and Canada was announced following discussions with the leaders of both countries.

Border security

Trump cited the need to address border security and drug trafficking concerns, particularly the flow of fentanyl into the United States. In response, Mexico committed to deploying 10,000 National Guard officers to the U.S. border, while Canada agreed to appoint a ‘Fentanyl Czar’ and launch a joint strike force to combat organised crime

However, while Trump’s administration has temporarily halted tariffs on Mexico and Canada, the situation with China remains tense. China swiftly introduced retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports, including a 15% levy on coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG), and a 10% tariff on crude oil and farm equipment.

These measures are seen as a direct response to the U.S.’s 10% tariff on Chinese goods, which took effect earlier this week.

Global impact

The global economic impact of these trade disputes is significant. Analysts warn that prolonged trade tensions could lead to higher prices, disrupted supply chains, and slower economic growth.

Businesses and consumers alike are bracing for the potential fallout, with many expressing concerns about the uncertainty and instability these tariffs bring.

Despite the temporary 30-day reprieve for Mexico and Canada, Trump has indicated that tariffs could be reinstated if the countries do not meet his demands for increased border security and drug control measures.

The administration is also considering imposing tariffs on imports from the European Union, further complicating the global trade landscape.

As negotiations continue, the world watches closely to see if a resolution can be reached or if Trumps self-imposed trade war will escalate further.

The coming weeks will be crucial in determining the future of international trade relations and the economic stability of nations involved.

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Tariff Man – Trumps tariffs take affect – markets fall!

U.S. Tariffs

U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs have moved from threat to reality.

U.S. President Donald Trump launched a series of tariffs on Saturday. U.S. imports from Mexico and Canada will face a 25% duty, while those from China will be subject to a 10% tariff. Energy resources from Canada will face a lower 10% tariff.

Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced on the same day retaliatory tariffs of 25% against $155 billion in U.S. goods. Industry leaders in the U.S. have expressed concern over those tariffs.

They cap off a wild start to the new year during which a new U.S. president entered the White House and a new Chinese artificial intelligence player, DeepSeek upended the industry.

Indices at new highs

Something else that was new in January: the highest-ever closing level for the S&P 500, Dow Jones and new FTSE 100 highs were enjoyed too.

With tariffs now in effect and the possibility of a trade war looming markets may struggle to new heights in the short term.

Even Big Tech earnings and the jobs numbers coming out this week, typically market-moving reports, are likely to play second fiddle to policy developments.

Markets react

Markets are already responding to the news. Prices of oil and gold, which typically rise during periods of volatility, have increased, but Bitcoin is trading lower. It remains uncertain whether these will be a temporary shock or a sustained trend.

China’s factory activity experienced slower growth in January 2025 compared to December 2024 and is expected to be adversely affected as U.S. companies seek to reduce their dependence on Chinese imports.

Trump’s current tariffs may be targeted, but it’s hard to see any country or sector escaping the tariff turmoil.

The EU is also in line for a tariff attack and maybe the UK after.

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Melania and Donald Trump launch their own cryptocurrency meme coins

Crypto

Melania Trump has launched a meme coin called ‘Melania’

The meme coin was announced on the eve of Donald Trump’s inauguration as president of the United States.

It comes days after President-elect Donald Trump launched his own meme coin, ‘Official Trump.’

In a disclaimer on the meme coin’s official website, potential buyers are told that Melania memes ‘are digital collectibles intended to function as an expression of support for and engagement with the values embodied by the symbol MELANIA. and the associated artwork, and are not intended to be, or to be the subject of, an investment opportunity, investment contract, or security of any type.’

On the Trump token’s website, the cryptocurrency – depicted with an image of Trump raising his fist in the air – is marketed as ‘a piece of history,’ while Trump himself is branded ‘the crypto president.’

Bitcoin hit a new all-time high overnight after the Trumps each launched their own meme coins in the past few days.

The flagship cryptocurrency was up and touching $107,000 in early Monday trade.

Trump launched the ‘Official Trump‘ meme coin Friday (17th January 2025), which has risen to a $10.6 billion market cap and surged more than 659%, according to data from CoinGecko and Coinbase (as of 20th January 2025) – and has trimmed back since. 

Melania Meme has hit a $1.3 billion market cap and 14% price increase since its launch Sunday night (19th January 2025). It has attracted $7.3 billion in trading volumes over that day, compared to the Trump meme’s $31 billion. But has since trimmed back.

Meme coins are considered the riskiest corner of the already risky cryptocurrency market.

But the Trumps’ coin launches are giving traders confidence that the incoming administration will be positive for the industry.

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How is AI regulation likely to affect stock markets in 2025?

AI regulation

As we head into 2025, the landscape of artificial intelligence (AI) regulation is poised to undergo significant changes, and these shifts are likely to have a profound impact on the stock markets.

The introduction of new regulations, particularly in regions like the European Union and the United States, will create both challenges and opportunities for investors.

One of the most anticipated regulatory developments is the European Union’s AI Act, which aims to set a global standard for AI regulation. This act is expected to impose stringent requirements on AI systems, particularly those used in high-risk sectors such as healthcare, finance, and law enforcement.

Companies operating in these sectors will need to invest heavily in compliance, which could lead to increased operational costs and potentially affect their profitability. As a result, stocks of companies heavily reliant on AI technologies may experience volatility as investors react to these new regulations.

In the United States, the political landscape is also shifting, with the incoming administration expected to take a more hands-on approach to AI regulation. President-elect Donald Trump has appointed Elon Musk to co-lead a new ‘Department of Government Efficiency – DOGE‘, which will focus on nascent technologies like AI. Musk’s influence and experience in the AI field could lead to more favourable policies for AI development, but it could also result in increased scrutiny and regulation of AI applications. Musk’s AI vision differs to that of Mark Zuckerberg’s for instance.

This dual approach of promoting innovation while ensuring safety and ethical use of AI could create a dynamic and unpredictable market environment.

The impact of AI regulation on the stock markets will not be uniform across all sectors. While companies in high-risk sectors may face challenges, those in industries like healthcare and finance could benefit from AI’s transformative potential.

For example, AI-driven innovations in healthcare, such as predictive diagnostics and personalised treatment plans, have the potential to revolutionize patient care and reduce costs. Companies that successfully integrate AI into their operations and comply with regulatory requirements could see their stock prices rise as investors recognize the long-term value of these advancements.

However, the regulatory landscape is not without its risks. Companies that fail to adapt to new regulations or face compliance issues may see their stock prices suffer. Additionally, the rapid pace of technological change means that regulations may struggle to keep up, leading to potential legal and financial uncertainties for companies operating in the AI arena.

AI regulation in 2025 is likely to create a complex and dynamic environment for the stock markets. While new regulations will pose challenges for some companies, they will also open up opportunities for those that can navigate the regulatory landscape successfully.

Investors will need to stay informed and agile, as the impact of AI regulation on the stock markets will be both significant and multifaceted.

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UK business confidence falls to lowest level in almost two years after Labour budget

In November 2024, business confidence in the U.K. dropped to its lowest point since January 2023, as reported by BDO, a business advisory and accountancy firm.

Concurrently, KPMG noted that UK job vacancies decreased at the quickest pace since the pandemic began. This downturn coincides with warnings from businesses that the Labour Party’s ‘pro-growth’ budget could exacerbate inflation and decelerate hiring.

Tax increases do not fit well with a ‘pro-growth’ agenda. Also, GDP predictions made by the UK chancellor for 2025 through 2027 are lame.

The Labour budget has notably affected U.K. business confidence for a variety of critical reasons:

  • Tax Increases: The budget introduced a substantial hike in National Insurance contributions for employers, raising the rate to 15% on salaries above £5,000. This increase has led to concerns about higher operational costs, which many businesses fear will result in job cuts and reduced investment.
  • Minimum Wage Hike: The budget also included an inflation-busting increase in the minimum wage. While this aims to improve living standards, it has added financial pressure on businesses, particularly those in sectors with tight margins like retail and hospitality.
  • Economic Uncertainty: The combination of these measures has created a sense of economic uncertainty. Businesses are worried about their ability to absorb these additional costs, leading to a decline in overall optimism.
  • Investment Concerns: The increased costs have forced many businesses to reconsider their investment plans. Some have already announced cuts to expansion projects and other growth initiatives.
  • Next Increase: in public workers pay looms nigh.

These factors have collectively contributed to a significant drop in business confidence, with many firms bracing for a challenging economic environment ahead