Annual inflation in the euro zone sank to 2.4% in November 2023 from 2.9% in October 2023, data showed Thursday 30th November 2023.
Core inflation was also below expectations at 3.6%.
The European Central Bank has stressed that it is too early to declare victory in the 20-member euro zone bloc, as they monitor potential pressures from wage increases and energy markets.
Headline inflation has now fallen significantly from the peak levels of 10.6% in October 2022.
China’s factory activity contracted for a second month in a row in November 2023.
Non-manufacturing activity hit yet another new low this year, signalling that the world’s second-largest economy was still not out of the woods and may require more policy support.
The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index unexpectedly dropped slightly lower to 49.4 in November 2023 from 49.5 in October 2023, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics released Thursday 30th November 2023.
Online investments app Robinhood said Thursday 30th November 2023 that it’s set to launch its platform in the U.K. in early 2024, marking the company’s third attempt at cracking international expansion.
Features on offer by the firm include the ability to choose from 6,000 U.S. stocks including Tesla, Amazon and Apple, and 24-hour trading five days a week. However, Robinhood will not offer U.K. stocks to begin with but will look to add them as it brings more products into the platform later. The U.K. version won’t include options and other derivatives at launch, either.
FCA warned of ‘gamification’
The FCA has previously warned about ‘gamification’ of investments, something the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is also worried about. Companies are obligated to respect consumer standards set out by the regulator.
Regulators are concerned brokerage apps like Robinhood and eToro, which engage retail investors with stimulating features like colourful graphics, push notifications, and a game-like interface, may encourage excessive trading that harms investors but is profitable for the market-makers.
Safeguards
Customer cash will be held in segregated accounts protected by U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Commission insurance, Robinhood said, rather than the U.K. Financial Services Compensation Scheme. Robinhood users will be able to make a 5% annual yield on cash held in their accounts.
This will be the third attempt by Robinhood to launch in the UK.
It has been a turbulent time at Twitter since Musk’s acquisition and the subsequent renaming of the company to X.
X is a subsidiary of X Holdings Corp., which is owned by Elon Musk. X has faced several issues and controversies since its inception, such as advertiser boycott, declining user base, staff layoffs, and more recently accusations of antisemitism and even more recently of a profane outburst levelled against X advertisers.
What a mess
Elon Musk launches attack on X advertisers in a profanity-laced outburst.
Musk has slammed advertisers that have left X, warning they will kill the social media platform. At an event in New York, he accused companies that have joined an advertising boycott of the site formerly known as Twitter of trying to blackmail him.
Musk tells X (Twitter) advertisers to go ‘f**k yourselves,’ but admits it will die without them: Despite this, Musk refused to accept responsibility for the impact of his statements on X’s ability to do business.
Instead, the billionaire insisted that if X (Twitter) went under, the blame would be entirely on the advertisers who fled as opposed to his decisions as its owner which more likely pushed them away.
His message to advertisers leaving X of: ‘Go f**k yourself’ – didn’t help matters as he admits responding to anti-Semitic post on X was one of the most foolish things he’s done on the platform.
Elon Musk is reported to have said on Wednesday 29th November 2023 that he regretted his November 15th tweet allegedly endorsing an anti-Semitic conspiracy theory.
Is the death knell of X and of a $44 billion investment?
Musk should be a force for good in the world – could that still happen?
The U.S. economy grew even stronger than previously calculated in the third quarter, the result of better than expected business investment and stronger government spending, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Wednesday 29th November 2023.
Gross domestic product (GDP), a measure of all goods and services produced during the three-month period, climbed to 5.2% annualised pace, the department’s second estimate showed. The increase superseded the initial 4.9% figure and was better than the 5% forecast from economists.
Upward revision
Primarily, the upward revision came from increases in non-residential fixed investment, which includes structures equipment and intellectual property. The category showed an increase of 1.3%, which still presented a sharp downward shift from previous quarters. Government spending also helped boost the Q3 estimate, rising 5.5% for the July-through-September 2023 period.
However, consumer spending registered a downward revision, now rising just 3.6%, compared to 4% in the initial estimate.
Inflation
There was some mixed news on the inflation front. The personal consumption expenditures price index, a gauge the Federal Reserve follows closely, increased 2.8% for the period, a 0.1% downward revision.
Corporate profits increased 4.3% during the period, up sharply from the 0.8% gain in the second quarter.
‘Don’t gain the world and lose your soul; wisdom is better than silver and gold’ – Bob Marley, a reggae singer-songwriter who reminds us of the futility of chasing material things.
Gold prices are on track to rally to all-time highs in 2024 on the back of interest rates increases, inflation fear, looming recessionary concerns and geo-political unrest.
The precious metal is always sought after as a safe haven asset. The gold price hit a record intraday high of $2,072.5 on 7th August 2020, according to data. Some analysts say it could surpass that level and push beyond the record.
Another positive driver for gold is an anticipated peak in Fed rate hiking cycle as well as upcoming topping out of U.S. dollar strength.
Gold usually performs well during uncertain times
Gold tends to perform well in periods of economic uncertainty such as recessions and stagflation due to its status as a reliable store of value.
Gold is often used as a hedge against inflation.
Any type of recessionary move would be positive for gold.
Gold should trade higher when interest rates stop rising and the dollar retreats.
As interest rates rise, demand for gold drops as alternative investments like bonds become more appealing and yield better returns. These may now have peaked.
Gold prices tend to have an inverse relationship with interest rates.
Central bank purchases of gold have been consistently strong, alongside consumer demand for the precious metal.
Gold price year on year
Some analysts are particularly bullish on gold and have called for a target of $2,500 by the end of next year.
There has been a return of physical gold jewellery demand from China and India as both economies improve and retail spending returns.
First quarter gold jewellery demand in China was reported just shy of 200 tons. Analysts project more than 700 tons of jewellery demand from China by the end of 2023.
Chinese retail gold demand has been resilient in 2023 even as consumption of other commodities remained weak.
The target is $2,500 by the end of 2024
Much of this has to do with the fact that recessionary forces may take hold beginning early in 2024.
Let’s watch and see.
NOTE: This is not investment advice!
You must, as always do your own careful research before making an investment.
Amazon Web Services (AWS) announced Trainium2, a chip for training artificial intelligence (AI) models, and it will also offer access to Nvidia’s next-generation H200 Tensor Core graphics processing units.
Amazon’s AWS cloud department of the encompassing Amazon empire has announced new chips for customers to build and run artificial intelligence (AI) applications on, as well as plans to offer access to Nvidia’s latest chips.
Amazon Web Services is attempting to stand out as a cloud provider with a variety of cost-effective options. It won’t just sell cheap Amazon-branded products, though. Just as in its online retail marketplace, Amazon’s cloud will feature top-of-the-line products from other vendors, including highly sought after GPUs from top AI chipmaker Nvidia
Amazon’s dual-pronged approach of both building its own chips and letting customers access Nvidia’s latest chips might will help it against its top cloud computing competitor, Microsoft.
Spending plans outlined in the chancellor’s Autumn Statement represent ‘a very big fiscal risk’, according to the UK’s OBR.
Mr Richard Hughes, chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), told MPs on the Treasury Select Committee that spending plans carried a level of ‘uncertainty’. He suggested that much of the promised spending is funded by projected savings rather than income already received.
Last week, the OBR slashed its forecast for UK economic growth.
In March, the OBR said it expected GDP – a measure of the size and health of a country’s economy – to grow by 1.8% in 2024 and 2.5% in 2025.
Predications cut
Those predictions have now been cut, with a new forecast suggesting the UK economy will grow by 0.7% in 2024 and 1.4% in 2025.
‘It is very difficult to assess the credibility of the government’s spending plans, because after March 2025 the government doesn’t have any spending plans,’ Mr Hughes said, as he and other members of the OBR faced questions on the Autumn Statement.
Tax by stealth
Even though the chancellor announced a cut to NI rates, he opted to leave NI and income tax thresholds untouched, meaning they remain frozen until 2028. By doing this, more workers will fall into the higher tax bracket thus creating larger than expected tax revenue for the treasury. And, as workers secure pay rises, they may end up paying more tax if they are dragged into that higher tax band.
Some 2.2 million more workers now pay the basic rate income tax of 20% compared with three years ago, according to official figures, while 1.6 million more people have found themselves in the 40% tax bracket in the same period.
Just a thought, wasn’t the former UK prime minister ousted because of unfunded projections or was that unfunded tax cuts?
A recent cyber-attack on CTS, a company that provides IT services to law firms and other organisations in the UK legal sector.
It was reported the cyberattack occurred on Wednesday, 22nd November 2023, and caused a widespread outage that affected dozens of law firms and homebuyers.
The cyberattack was reportedly caused by a CitrixBleed bug that has targeted other firms in recent weeks.
The governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey has raised concerns over economic growth as he warned again that interest rates will not be cut in the ‘foreseeable future’.
The bank boss said he was concerned over the UK economy’s potential to grow. It comes after the government’s forecaster cut its growth outlook for the UK, due to high inflation, interest rates, energy and food price increases which were exacerbated by the Covid pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Inflation, which is the rate consumer prices rise at, has dropped sharply in recent months, falling to 4.6% in the year to October largely as a result of lower energy prices.
However, it is still more than double the Bank of England’s 2% target and Mr Bailey warned lowering inflation further would be ‘hard work’.
Interest rates are currently at 5.25%, a 15-year high, which has pushed up borrowing and mortgage costs.
The first transatlantic flight using 100% sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is scheduled to take off on Tuesday, 28th November 2023.
UK Government funded project
The flight is operated by Virgin Atlantic and will fly from London’s Heathrow to New York’s JFK airport. The flight is part of a UK government-funded project to demonstrate the feasibility and benefits of using SAF as an alternative to conventional jet fuel. SAF can reduce carbon emissions by over 70% compared to fossil jet fuel.
The flight will also use biochar credits to offset any remaining emissions and achieve net zero.
Biochar is the lightweight black residue, made of carbon and ashes, remaining after the pyrolysis of biomass, and is a form of charcoal.
Support
The flight is supported by a consortium of companies, including Boeing, Rolls-Royce, BP, Imperial College London, University of Sheffield, Rocky Mountain Institute, and ICF. The transatlantic flight has received a permit to fly from the UK Civil Aviation Authority, after undergoing technical assessments and ground testing.
The flight will use a Boeing 787 Dreamliner powered by Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 engines. The SAF used will be made primarily from waste oils and fats, such as used cooking oil.
The flight is not the first transatlantic flight to use SAF, but it is the first to use 100% SAF. In 2019, Gulfstream flew a G600 aircraft from Georgia to the UK using a 30/70 blend of SAF and jet fuel.
The Virgin Atlantic flight will be the first to use pure SAF on a commercial airliner.
Update 29th November 2023 – History made
The first transatlantic flight by a large passenger aeroplane, fueled by ‘greener fuel’ was a success.Operated by Virgin Atlantic, it flew from London’s Heathrow to New York’s JFK airport.
Gold prices on Monday 27th November 2023 climbed to a more than six-month high as the U.S. dollar weakened.
Investors, it is reported, have placed their bets, suggesting the Federal Reserve is finished with interest rate hikes.
Gold was up around 0.52% at $2,012 per ounce in early afternoon trading (London time). It reached a high of $2,017.82 earlier in the day. Gold futures for December 2023 hit $2,018.90 according to analysts’ data.
The dollar index, a measure of the greenback against major currencies, was 0.13% lower as markets price in a more than 90% chance the Fed will hold rates at its next two meetings.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs reportedly said that the outlook for 2024 is that gold’s ‘shine is returning’.
The potential upside in gold prices will be closely tied to U.S. real rates and dollar moves.
Lilium is a German start-up that is developed a five-seater electric jet that can take off and land vertically. It is a flying taxi.
The company aims to offer sustainable, high-speed air mobility through its aircraft, vertiports and digital service. Lilium successfully tested its prototype in 2019 and 2021 and plans to launch its services in multiple cities by 2025.
eVTOL market
Lilium is one of the leading companies in the emerging eVTOL market, which faces challenges such as regulation, infrastructure, safety and public opinion. Lilium claims that its jet is faster, quieter and more efficient than its competitors, and that it can travel up to 300 km in just 60 minutes.
Lilium has been granted EU approval to design and operate its electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles globally.
Lilium is a German start-up that is developed a five-seater electric jet that can take off and land vertically.
It’s a key milestone for the industry. Lilium has been working for several years to get such vehicles ready for commercial market.
Santa rally is a term that refers to the tendency of the stock market to rise in the last week of December and the first two days of January.
This is not a guaranteed or consistent pattern, and it may depend on many and various factors that affect the market performance.
However, the stock market trends in December are historically positive, according to some resources.
When it’s cold outside sometimes the market get hot
The term ‘Santa rally’ refers to the tendency of the stock market to rise in the last week of December and the first two days of January.
Some possible explanations for this phenomenon are tax considerations, increased holiday spending, optimism and goodwill, and institutional investors adjusting their portfolios before the year end.
But it can get cold too
However, the stock market performance in December may vary depending on the economic and political conditions of the year. For example, in 2022, the stock market had its worst year since 2008, and many major indices were negative for December. The coronavirus pandemic, the trade war with China, the Brexit uncertainty, and the U.S. presidential election (2020) and problems that followed that election were some of the factors that contributed to the market volatility and decline.
Therefore, the stock momentum going into December 2023 may depend on how the current issues and events are resolved or at least managed. The market for 2023 and right now is in a general upward trend.
Some of the key factors that may influence the market are geo-political issues, the wars between Ukraine and Russia – Israel and Palestine, inflation rates, interest rates, budgets, corporate earnings, fiscal news, central bank interventions and other brewing world tensions.
Impossible to predict, but we can make an educated guess
It is not possible to predict with certainty how the market will behave at this time of year (or any for that matter), but looking at historical data, technical analysis, fundamentals, stock market movements in general and the overall news pattern – it is possible to make a more ‘informed’ decision.
Warning!
Don’t rely on it though – ‘nothing’ is, absolutely ‘NOTHING‘ is definite in the stock market.
Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi – was an Indian lawyer, anti-colonial nationalist and political ethicist who employed nonviolent resistance to lead the successful campaign for India’s independence from British rule.
‘The day the power of love overrules the love of power, the world will know peace’. Mahatma Ghandi
Singapore is planning to introduce stricter regulations for cryptocurrency service providers in order to protect retail customers from the higher financial risks associated with digital assets.
Requiring crypto service providers to disclose the fees and charges for their services, as well as the risks and volatility of the crypto assets they offer.
Preventing crypto service providers from accepting payments through locally issued credit cards.
Enhancing the standards and governance of stablecoin-related activities, such as requiring stablecoin issuers to have a presence in Singapore and to comply with anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing rules.
Imposing a cap on the amount of crypto assets that retail customers can buy or sell in a single transaction, as well as a limit on the total value of crypto assets they can hold across all service providers.
MAS
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) stated that these measures are intended to reduce the potential for consumer harm and financial instability arising from crypto trading, while supporting the development of stablecoins as a credible medium of exchange in the digital asset ecosystem.
The MAS also noted that crypto assets are not legal tender and are not backed by any asset or issuer, and therefore carry significant risks of loss, fraud, hacking, and theft. The MAS urged consumers to exercise due diligence and understand the potential risks before engaging in crypto transactions.
It is widely reported that HSBC‘s online banking system is experiencing some problems today, 24th November 2023.
According to the news reports, many customers are unable to access the app or the website or make payments.
The bank has acknowledged the issue and said it is working hard to fix it as soon as possible. Some users have also reported missing money from their accounts.
Downdetector, which tracks websites, showed more than 4000 people reported they could not access HSBC services.
‘It is impacting HSBC UK customers only – there is no impact to First Direct or M&S Bank customers’, a spokesperson for the bank said.
The UK energy price cap is expected to rise by 5% in January 2024, which means that a typical household who pays by Direct Debit will face an annual bill of £1,931, up from £1,834 in the previous quarter.
This increase comes at a “difficult period” for struggling households, as many are already facing higher costs of living due to the pandemic, Brexit, and inflation.
Designed to protect customers
The energy price cap is designed to protect customers from unfair price hikes and ensure that they pay a fair price for their energy. However, it does not limit the total bill, which depends on how much energy is actually used.
Therefore, customers are advised to shop around for better deals and switch to cheaper tariffs if possible. This, however, is easier said than done.
It is also recommended that struggling customers contact suppliers if they have difficulty paying their bills and seek help from schemes, grants, and benefits.
The UK energy price cap is a limit on the maximum amount that energy suppliers can charge customers on standard or default tariffs for each unit of gas and electricity they use. It is set by Ofgem, the energy regulator, every three months based on the underlying costs of energy and inflation.
Some of the main takeaways from the chancellor’s autumn statement November 2023
National Insurance rate cut from 12% to 10% from 6 January, affecting 27 million people.
The 75% business rates discount for retail, hospitality and leisure firms in England extended for another year.
Class 2 National Insurance – paid by self-employed people earning more than £12,570 – abolished from April.
Class 4 National Insurance for self-employed – paid on profits between £12,570 and £50,270 – cut from 9% to 8% from April.
Full tax break permitting companies to deduct spending on new machinery and equipment from profits – now made permanent.
Funding of £4.5bn to attract investment to strategic manufacturing sectors, including aerospace, green energy, aerospace, life sciences and zero-emission vehicles.
Some £500m over the next two years to fund artificial intelligence (AI) innovation centres.
New premium planning services for England, with faster decision times for major business applications and fee refunds when these are not met.
Defence spending to remain at 2% of national income – a Nato commitment.
Overseas aid spending kept at 0.5% of national income, below the official 0.7% target.
Reaffirms previous commitments made last autumn to provide £14.1bn for the NHS and adult social care in England, as well as an extra £2bn for schools, in both 2023‑24 and 2024-25.
Fuel duty remains 52.95p per litre for petrol and diesel, after the chancellor announced a 5p per litre cut for 12 months in March 2023
State pension payments to increase by 8.5% from April, in line with average earnings.
Claimants in England and Wales deemed able to work who refuse to seek employment to lose access to their benefits and extras like free prescriptions.
UK autumn statement – art illustration of office worker preparing data
Further £1.3bn to help people who have been unemployed for over a year.
National Living Wage – to increase from £10.42 to £11.44 an hour from April.
Funding of £1.3bn over the next five years to help people with health conditions find jobs.
OBR Stats
Independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) expects the economy to grow by 0.6% this year and 0.7% next year, rising to 1.4% in 2025; then 1.9% in 2026; 2% in 2027 and 1.7% in 2028.
Living standards not expected to return to pre-pandemic levels until 2027-28.
Underlying debt forecast to be 91.6% of GDP next year; 92.7% in 2024-25; 93.2% in 2026-27; before declining to 92.8% in 2028-29.(One to watch)
OBR forecasts that inflation – the rate prices are rising – will fall to 2.8% by the end of 2024, before reaching the Bank of England’s 2% target rate in 2025.(One to watch)
The OBR says higher inflation means real value of departmental budgets will be £19bn lower by 2027/28 compared with March 2023 forecasts.
Borrowing forecast to fall from 4.5% of GDP in 2023-24; to 3% in 2024-25; 2.7% in 2025-26; 2.3% in 2026-27; 1.6% in 2027-28 and 1.1% in 2028-29.(One to watch)
Federal Reserve members, in their most recent meeting, gave little indication of cutting interest rates anytime soon, particularly as inflation remains well above their goal of 2%, according to minutes released Tuesday 21st November 2023.
The detail of the meeting held 31st October – 1st November 2023, showed that Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members are still concerned that inflation could be stubborn or move higher, and that more may need to be done.
They indicated that policy would need to stay ‘restrictive’ at the very least, inflation is on a convincing move back to the central bank’s 2% goal.
Stan Lee was an American comic book writer, editor, publisher, and producer. He rose through the ranks of a family-run business called Timely Comics which would later become Marvel Comics.
Art illustration of a comic book page.‘With great power there must also come great responsibility!’
Tech execs have expressed concern that the development of artificial intelligence (AI) is concentrated in the hands of too few companies, potentially giving them too much power. OpenAI’s ChatGPT marked the start of what many in the industry have called an AI arms race, as tech giants including Microsoft and Google have sought to develop and launch AI models.
A number of tech execs have said that they feel users have lost control of their data online and that it is being harnessed by technology giants to feed their profits.
The development of artificial intelligence (AI) is concentrated in the hands of too few companies, potentially giving them excessive control over the rapidly evolving technology.
OpenAI’s ChatGPT
An explosion of interest in AI was sparked by OpenAI’s ChatGPT late last year thanks to the novel way in which the chatbot can answer user prompts. Its popularity contributed to the start of what many in the tech industry have called an AI arms race, as tech giants including Microsoft and Google seek to develop and launch their own artificial intelligence models. These require huge amounts of computing power as they are trained on massive amounts of data.
Meredith Whittaker reportedly said of large tech companies and the current deployment of AI…
‘Right now, there are only a handful of companies with the resources needed to create these large-scale AI models and deploy them at scale. And we need to recognize that this is giving them inordinate power over our lives and institutions’,Meredith Whittaker, president of encrypted messaging app Signal, is reported to have said. ‘We should really be concerned about, again, a handful of corporations driven by profit and shareholder returns making such socially consequential decisions’.
Whittaker previously spent 13 years at Google but became disillusioned in 2017 when she found out the search giant was working on a controversial contract with the Department of Defence known as Project Maven. Whittaker grew concerned Google’s AI could potentially be used for drone warfare and helped organize a walkout at the company that involved thousands of employees.
‘AI, as we understand it today, is fundamentally a technology that is derivative of centralized corporate power and control’, Whittaker reportedly said. ‘It is built on the concentrated resources that accrued to a handful of large tech corporations, largely based in the U.S. and China via the surveillance advertising business model, which gave them powerful computational infrastructure and huge amounts of data; large markets from which to pull that data; and the ability to process and structure that data in ways useful for creating new technologies.’
In essence, BIG TECH has far too much power in AI technology.
Tim Berners-Lee
The inventor of the web, Tim Berners-Lee, has also raised concerns about the concentration of power among the tech giants. Jimmy Wales, the founder of Wikipedia, says it is the state of social media that is of particular concern right now. On AI, however, he feels that while the technology giants now are leading the way, there is space for disruption.
Big tech and social media giants are inflicting profound damage on our society, and he believes AI could make this worse.
Binance is still open for business and is now being run by, Richard Teng. But who is the new boss of Binance?
Mr Teng, from Singapore joined Binance just over two years ago as the chief executive of the Singapore business. That was the year when Binance came under a Justice Department investigation, and as regulatory scrutiny of the company and Zhao intensified. Richard Teng was rapidly climbing the ranks in the background.
He only stayed in his original position as the Singapore CEO for five months, according to his LinkedIn page, before he was promoted to regional head of Europe, Asia and the Middle East and North Africa in April 2023.
Mr Teng later moved to become head of regional markets in May 2023 before he was appointed to the top job on Tuesday 21st November 2023.
In announcing his successor, Mr Zhao called Mr Teng a ‘highly qualified leader‘, adding that ‘with over three decades of financial services and regulatory experience, he will navigate the company through its next period of growth’.
Traditional financial background
Prior to joining Binance, Mr Teng worked in the more traditional financial sectors as a director of corporate finance at the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and a chief regulatory officer of the Singapore Exchange (SGX). He then moved on to the become chief executive of the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM), an international financial centre in the United Arab Emirates, where he stayed for six years. The ADGM regulates the trading of digital assets.
In a statement on Wednesday 22nd November 2023, Mr Teng said he was honoured to take this position, adding that he would focus on reassuring Binance’s 150 million users about ‘the financial strength, security and safety of the company’.
Despite this, Mr Teng has reiterated that Binance is ‘here to stay‘, adding that company’s foundation stands ‘stronger than ever’.
