Bank of England governor worried over UK growth outlook

Central Banks are struggling to catch-up with inflation

The governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey has raised concerns over economic growth as he warned again that interest rates will not be cut in the ‘foreseeable future’.

The bank boss said he was concerned over the UK economy’s potential to grow. It comes after the government’s forecaster cut its growth outlook for the UK, due to high inflation, interest rates, energy and food price increases which were exacerbated by the Covid pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Inflation, which is the rate consumer prices rise at, has dropped sharply in recent months, falling to 4.6% in the year to October largely as a result of lower energy prices.

However, it is still more than double the Bank of England’s 2% target and Mr Bailey warned lowering inflation further would be ‘hard work’.

Interest rates are currently at 5.25%, a 15-year high, which has pushed up borrowing and mortgage costs.

The Bank of England (BoE) failed abysmally to maintain inflation at 2%.

Virgin transatlantic flight to make history using 100% green fuels

Virgin 100% biofuel transatlantic flight

The first transatlantic flight using 100% sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is scheduled to take off on Tuesday, 28th November 2023. 

UK Government funded project

The flight is operated by Virgin Atlantic and will fly from London’s Heathrow to New York’s JFK airport. The flight is part of a UK government-funded project to demonstrate the feasibility and benefits of using SAF as an alternative to conventional jet fuel. SAF can reduce carbon emissions by over 70% compared to fossil jet fuel. 

The flight will also use biochar credits to offset any remaining emissions and achieve net zero.

Biochar is the lightweight black residue, made of carbon and ashes, remaining after the pyrolysis of biomass, and is a form of charcoal.

Support

The flight is supported by a consortium of companies, including Boeing, Rolls-Royce, BP, Imperial College London, University of Sheffield, Rocky Mountain Institute, and ICF. The transatlantic flight has received a permit to fly from the UK Civil Aviation Authority, after undergoing technical assessments and ground testing. 

The flight will use a Boeing 787 Dreamliner powered by Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 engines. The SAF used will be made primarily from waste oils and fats, such as used cooking oil.

The flight is expected to be a historic milestone for the aviation industry, as it will showcase the potential of SAF to decarbonise aviation and create a greener future. SAF could also create a UK industry with an annual turnover of £2.4 billion by 2040 and support up to 5,200 UK jobs by 2035.

First transatlantic flight to use 100% SAF

The flight is not the first transatlantic flight to use SAF, but it is the first to use 100% SAF. In 2019, Gulfstream flew a G600 aircraft from Georgia to the UK using a 30/70 blend of SAF and jet fuel. 

The Virgin Atlantic flight will be the first to use pure SAF on a commercial airliner.

Update 29th November 2023 – History made

The first transatlantic flight by a large passenger aeroplane, fueled by ‘greener fuel’ was a success. Operated by Virgin Atlantic, it flew from London’s Heathrow to New York’s JFK airport.

Is the shine returning for gold as investors place bets on rate cuts?

Gold

Gold prices on Monday 27th November 2023 climbed to a more than six-month high as the U.S. dollar weakened.

Investors, it is reported, have placed their bets, suggesting the Federal Reserve is finished with interest rate hikes.

Gold was up around 0.52% at $2,012 per ounce in early afternoon trading (London time). It reached a high of $2,017.82 earlier in the day. Gold futures for December 2023 hit $2,018.90 according to analysts’ data.

CME Fed watch tool

The dollar index, a measure of the greenback against major currencies, was 0.13% lower as markets price in a more than 90% chance the Fed will hold rates at its next two meetings.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs reportedly said that the outlook for 2024 is that gold’s ‘shine is returning’.

The potential upside in gold prices will be closely tied to U.S. real rates and dollar moves.

Flying taxi company receives EU approval for its electric jets

Flying taxi

Lilium is a German start-up that is developed a five-seater electric jet that can take off and land vertically. It is a flying taxi.

The company aims to offer sustainable, high-speed air mobility through its aircraft, vertiports and digital service. Lilium successfully tested its prototype in 2019 and 2021 and plans to launch its services in multiple cities by 2025. 

eVTOL market

Lilium is one of the leading companies in the emerging eVTOL market, which faces challenges such as regulation, infrastructure, safety and public opinion. Lilium claims that its jet is faster, quieter and more efficient than its competitors, and that it can travel up to 300 km in just 60 minutes.

Lilium has been granted EU approval to design and operate its electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles globally.

Lilium is a German start-up that is developed a five-seater electric jet that can take off and land vertically.

It’s a key milestone for the industry. Lilium has been working for several years to get such vehicles ready for commercial market.

Santa rally likely this December 2023?

Sata rally 2023?

Santa rally is a term that refers to the tendency of the stock market to rise in the last week of December and the first two days of January.

This is not a guaranteed or consistent pattern, and it may depend on many and various factors that affect the market performance.

However, the stock market trends in December are historically positive, according to some resources. 

When it’s cold outside sometimes the market get hot

The term ‘Santa rally’ refers to the tendency of the stock market to rise in the last week of December and the first two days of January. 

Some possible explanations for this phenomenon are tax considerations, increased holiday spending, optimism and goodwill, and institutional investors adjusting their portfolios before the year end.

But it can get cold too

However, the stock market performance in December may vary depending on the economic and political conditions of the year. For example, in 2022, the stock market had its worst year since 2008, and many major indices were negative for December. The coronavirus pandemic, the trade war with China, the Brexit uncertainty, and the U.S. presidential election (2020) and problems that followed that election were some of the factors that contributed to the market volatility and decline.

Therefore, the stock momentum going into December 2023 may depend on how the current issues and events are resolved or at least managed. The market for 2023 and right now is in a general upward trend.

Some of the key factors that may influence the market are geo-political issues, the wars between Ukraine and Russia – Israel and Palestine, inflation rates, interest rates, budgets, corporate earnings, fiscal news, central bank interventions and other brewing world tensions.

Impossible to predict, but we can make an educated guess

It is not possible to predict with certainty how the market will behave at this time of year (or any for that matter), but looking at historical data, technical analysis, fundamentals, stock market movements in general and the overall news pattern – it is possible to make a more ‘informed’ decision.

Warning!

Don’t rely on it though – ‘nothing’ is, absolutely ‘NOTHING‘ is definite in the stock market.

Trade carefully and enjoy the holiday.

Retail regulation for crypto customers in Singapore planned

Crypto

Singapore is planning to introduce stricter regulations for cryptocurrency service providers in order to protect retail customers from the higher financial risks associated with digital assets. 

Some of the proposed measures

Requiring crypto service providers to disclose the fees and charges for their services, as well as the risks and volatility of the crypto assets they offer.

Preventing crypto service providers from accepting payments through locally issued credit cards.

Enhancing the standards and governance of stablecoin-related activities, such as requiring stablecoin issuers to have a presence in Singapore and to comply with anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing rules.

Imposing a cap on the amount of crypto assets that retail customers can buy or sell in a single transaction, as well as a limit on the total value of crypto assets they can hold across all service providers.

MAS

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) stated that these measures are intended to reduce the potential for consumer harm and financial instability arising from crypto trading, while supporting the development of stablecoins as a credible medium of exchange in the digital asset ecosystem. 

The MAS also noted that crypto assets are not legal tender and are not backed by any asset or issuer, and therefore carry significant risks of loss, fraud, hacking, and theft. The MAS urged consumers to exercise due diligence and understand the potential risks before engaging in crypto transactions.

HSBC down online banking outages

Bank online outage

It is widely reported that HSBC‘s online banking system is experiencing some problems today, 24th November 2023. 

According to the news reports, many customers are unable to access the app or the website or make payments. 

The bank has acknowledged the issue and said it is working hard to fix it as soon as possible. Some users have also reported missing money from their accounts.

Downdetector, which tracks websites, showed more than 4000 people reported they could not access HSBC services.

‘It is impacting HSBC UK customers only – there is no impact to First Direct or M&S Bank customers’, a spokesperson for the bank said.

UK energy price cap to rise in January 2024 piling more pressure on households

UK energy price cap

The UK energy price cap is expected to rise by 5% in January 2024, which means that a typical household who pays by Direct Debit will face an annual bill of £1,931, up from £1,834 in the previous quarter. 

This increase comes at a “difficult period” for struggling households, as many are already facing higher costs of living due to the pandemic, Brexit, and inflation.

Designed to protect customers

The energy price cap is designed to protect customers from unfair price hikes and ensure that they pay a fair price for their energy. However, it does not limit the total bill, which depends on how much energy is actually used.

Therefore, customers are advised to shop around for better deals and switch to cheaper tariffs if possible. This, however, is easier said than done. 

It is also recommended that struggling customers contact suppliers if they have difficulty paying their bills and seek help from schemes, grants, and benefits.

The UK energy price cap is a limit on the maximum amount that energy suppliers can charge customers on standard or default tariffs for each unit of gas and electricity they use. It is set by Ofgem, the energy regulator, every three months based on the underlying costs of energy and inflation.

See Ofgem analysis here. 

UK autumn statement, in a nutshell

UK autumn statement

Some of the main takeaways from the chancellor’s autumn statement November 2023

National Insurance rate cut from 12% to 10% from 6 January, affecting 27 million people.

The 75% business rates discount for retail, hospitality and leisure firms in England extended for another year.

Class 2 National Insurance – paid by self-employed people earning more than £12,570 – abolished from April.

Class 4 National Insurance for self-employed – paid on profits between £12,570 and £50,270 – cut from 9% to 8% from April.

Full tax break permitting companies to deduct spending on new machinery and equipment from profits – now made permanent.

Funding of £4.5bn to attract investment to strategic manufacturing sectors, including aerospace, green energy, aerospace, life sciences and zero-emission vehicles.

Some £500m over the next two years to fund artificial intelligence (AI) innovation centres.

New premium planning services for England, with faster decision times for major business applications and fee refunds when these are not met.

Defence spending to remain at 2% of national income – a Nato commitment.

Overseas aid spending kept at 0.5% of national income, below the official 0.7% target.

Reaffirms previous commitments made last autumn to provide £14.1bn for the NHS and adult social care in England, as well as an extra £2bn for schools, in both 2023‑24 and 2024-25.

All alcohol duty frozen until 1 August next year.

Tobacco products duty increases by 2% above RPI inflation; hand-rolling tobacco rises 12% above RPI.

Fuel duty remains 52.95p per litre for petrol and diesel, after the chancellor announced a 5p per litre cut for 12 months in March 2023

State pension payments to increase by 8.5% from April, in line with average earnings.

Claimants in England and Wales deemed able to work who refuse to seek employment to lose access to their benefits and extras like free prescriptions.

UK autumn statement – art illustration of office worker preparing data

Further £1.3bn to help people who have been unemployed for over a year.

National Living Wage – to increase from £10.42 to £11.44 an hour from April.

Funding of £1.3bn over the next five years to help people with health conditions find jobs.

OBR Stats

Independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) expects the economy to grow by 0.6% this year and 0.7% next year, rising to 1.4% in 2025; then 1.9% in 2026; 2% in 2027 and 1.7% in 2028.

Living standards not expected to return to pre-pandemic levels until 2027-28.

Underlying debt forecast to be 91.6% of GDP next year; 92.7% in 2024-25; 93.2% in 2026-27; before declining to 92.8% in 2028-29. (One to watch)

OBR forecasts that inflation – the rate prices are rising – will fall to 2.8% by the end of 2024, before reaching the Bank of England’s 2% target rate in 2025. (One to watch)

The OBR says higher inflation means real value of departmental budgets will be £19bn lower by 2027/28 compared with March 2023 forecasts.

Borrowing forecast to fall from 4.5% of GDP in 2023-24; to 3% in 2024-25; 2.7% in 2025-26; 2.3% in 2026-27; 1.6% in 2027-28 and 1.1% in 2028-29. (One to watch)

Fed minutes show no indication of U.S. rate cuts at last meeting

U.S. interest rate

Federal Reserve members, in their most recent meeting, gave little indication of cutting interest rates anytime soon, particularly as inflation remains well above their goal of 2%, according to minutes released Tuesday 21st November 2023. 

The detail of the meeting held 31st October – 1st November 2023, showed that Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members are still concerned that inflation could be stubborn or move higher, and that more may need to be done.

They indicated that policy would need to stay ‘restrictive’ at the very least, inflation is on a convincing move back to the central bank’s 2% goal.

Fed next meet 13th December 2023.

Some tech executives think AI is giving Big Tech ‘inordinate’ power!

The power of AI

Too much power for too few

Tech execs have expressed concern that the development of artificial intelligence (AI) is concentrated in the hands of too few companies, potentially giving them too much power. OpenAI’s ChatGPT marked the start of what many in the industry have called an AI arms race, as tech giants including Microsoft and Google have sought to develop and launch AI models.

A number of tech execs have said that they feel users have lost control of their data online and that it is being harnessed by technology giants to feed their profits.

The development of artificial intelligence (AI) is concentrated in the hands of too few companies, potentially giving them excessive control over the rapidly evolving technology.

OpenAI’s ChatGPT

An explosion of interest in AI was sparked by OpenAI’s ChatGPT late last year thanks to the novel way in which the chatbot can answer user prompts. Its popularity contributed to the start of what many in the tech industry have called an AI arms race, as tech giants including Microsoft and Google seek to develop and launch their own artificial intelligence models. These require huge amounts of computing power as they are trained on massive amounts of data.

Meredith Whittaker reportedly said of large tech companies and the current deployment of AI…

Right now, there are only a handful of companies with the resources needed to create these large-scale AI models and deploy them at scale. And we need to recognize that this is giving them inordinate power over our lives and institutions’, Meredith Whittaker, president of encrypted messaging app Signal, is reported to have said. ‘We should really be concerned about, again, a handful of corporations driven by profit and shareholder returns making such socially consequential decisions’.

Whittaker previously spent 13 years at Google but became disillusioned in 2017 when she found out the search giant was working on a controversial contract with the Department of Defence known as Project Maven. Whittaker grew concerned Google’s AI could potentially be used for drone warfare and helped organize a walkout at the company that involved thousands of employees.

‘AI, as we understand it today, is fundamentally a technology that is derivative of centralized corporate power and control’, Whittaker reportedly said. ‘It is built on the concentrated resources that accrued to a handful of large tech corporations, largely based in the U.S. and China via the surveillance advertising business model, which gave them powerful computational infrastructure and huge amounts of data; large markets from which to pull that data; and the ability to process and structure that data in ways useful for creating new technologies.’

In essence, BIG TECH has far too much power in AI technology.

Tim Berners-Lee

The inventor of the web, Tim Berners-Lee, has also raised concerns about the concentration of power among the tech giants. Jimmy Wales, the founder of Wikipedia, says it is the state of social media that is of particular concern right now. On AI, however, he feels that while the technology giants now are leading the way, there is space for disruption.

Big tech and social media giants are inflicting profound damage on our society, and he believes AI could make this worse.

Who’s now in charge at Binance?

Crypto

Binance is still open for business and is now being run by, Richard Teng. But who is the new boss of Binance?

Mr Teng, from Singapore joined Binance just over two years ago as the chief executive of the Singapore business. That was the year when Binance came under a Justice Department investigation, and as regulatory scrutiny of the company and Zhao intensified. Richard Teng was rapidly climbing the ranks in the background.

He only stayed in his original position as the Singapore CEO for five months, according to his LinkedIn page, before he was promoted to regional head of Europe, Asia and the Middle East and North Africa in April 2023.

Mr Teng later moved to become head of regional markets in May 2023 before he was appointed to the top job on Tuesday 21st November 2023.

In announcing his successor, Mr Zhao called Mr Teng a highly qualified leader‘, adding that ‘with over three decades of financial services and regulatory experience, he will navigate the company through its next period of growth’.

Traditional financial background

Prior to joining Binance, Mr Teng worked in the more traditional financial sectors as a director of corporate finance at the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and a chief regulatory officer of the Singapore Exchange (SGX). He then moved on to the become chief executive of the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM), an international financial centre in the United Arab Emirates, where he stayed for six years. The ADGM regulates the trading of digital assets.

In a statement on Wednesday 22nd November 2023, Mr Teng said he was honoured to take this position, adding that he would focus on reassuring Binance’s 150 million users about ‘the financial strength, security and safety of the company’.

Despite this, Mr Teng has reiterated that Binance is ‘here to stay‘, adding that company’s foundation stands ‘stronger than ever’.

Binance battered as CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) pleads guilty to U.S. federal charges

Crypto exchange

Binance chief Changpeng Zhao pleaded guilty Tuesday to criminal charges and stepped down as the company’s CEO as part of a $4.3 billion settlement with the Department of Justice, according to court documents.

The plea arrangement with the U.S. government resolves an investigation into the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange.

Zhao said Tuesday in a post on X, that he had ‘made mistakes’ and ‘must take responsibility’. He said Richard Teng, the company’s former global head of regional markets, is the new CEO of Binance.

Action taken against Binance

The action against Binance and its founder was a joint effort by the Department of Justice, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Treasury Department. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) was absent.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reportedly said in a release Tuesday 21st November 2023 that the cryptocurrency exchange permitted ‘illicit actors’ to make transactions that supported activities such as terrorism and illegal narcotics and that it allowed more than 1.5 million virtual currency trades that violated U.S. sanctions.

Plea deal

Zhao personally pleaded guilty to violating and causing a financial institution to violate the Bank Secrecy Act, according to the plea agreement. The DOJ is also recommending that the court impose a $50 million fine on Zhao.

Zhao has been released on a $175 million bond secured by $15 million in cash and has a sentencing hearing scheduled for 23rd February 2024.

Continue to operate

Binance will continue to operate but with new strict rules. The company will be required to maintain and enhance its compliance program to ensure its business is in line with U.S. anti-money-laundering standards. The company is required to appoint an independent compliance monitor.

The case against Binance shows that three criminal charges were brought against the exchange, including conducting an unlicensed money-transmitting business, violating the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, and conspiracy. Binance has agreed to forfeit $2.5 billion to the U.S. government, as well as to pay a fine of $1.8 billion.

SEC takes aim too

The SEC targeted the company with a lawsuit in June 2023, alleging that Binance was running an illegal securities exchange and mishandling customer funds.

The SEC also challenged rival crypto exchange Coinbase with a similar lawsuit, alleging it is operating as an unauthorized securities exchange, broker and clearing agency.

And on Monday 20th November 2023 the SEC sued Kraken, alleging that the exchange commingled $33 billion in customer crypto assets with its own company assets, creating the potential for a significant risk of loss to its users.

Crypto fraud
Binance battered as CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) pleads guilty to federal charges, steps down.

In the charges brought against Binance by the SEC, the agency accused Binance of ‘commingling’ billions of dollars in customer money with Binance’s own funds, similar to allegations made against the now bankrupt and disgraced crypto exchange FTX. The founder of FTX, Sam Bankman-Fried was convicted of fraud and now awaits sentencing.

EC Chair, Gary Gensler reportedly said, ‘Zhao and Binance entities engaged in an extensive web of deception, conflicts of interest, lack of disclosure, and calculated evasion of the law’.

Binance origin

Started by the Chinese-born entrepreneur in 2017, Binance went from being a relatively obscure name to being a major force in crypto in a matter of weeks. Binance remains the world’s largest crypto exchange globally, processing billions of dollars in trades every year.

While its holding company is based in the Cayman Islands, Binance doesn’t have a global headquarters and Zhao frequently resisted calls to create one, saying he wanted the platform to run on a ‘decentralized’ operating model.

UK ban

In 2021, the U.K.’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) barred Binance’s U.K. unit from operating in the country, saying it wasn’t authorized to carry out regulated activities. More recently, Binance scrapped plans to pursue a full U.K. license after the regulator said its ‘know-your-customer and anti-money-laundering’ controls didn’t meet its requirements.

Binance and Zhao filed a motion in July 2023 to dismiss the CFTC’s suit. The U.S. arm of the exchange is also pushing back on the SEC’s lawsuit, filing a protective order against what they call the SEC’s ‘fishing expedition’.

Crypto industry concern

Of particular concern for the crypto industry are the implications of the crypto crackdown for a myriad of altcoins or tokens and blockchains, not just the exchanges.

The SEC maintains that several of the tokens Binance and Coinbase offer on their platforms such as: Solana’s SOL, Cardano’s ADA , and Polygon’s MATIC are all securities that should have been registered.

Nvidia’s AI chip boom continues, latest figures show

Nvidia AI chip

Nvidia’s revenue grew 206% from year 2022 during the quarter ending 29th October 2023, according to data from Nvidia.

Net income, at $9.24 billion, or $3.71 per share, was up from $680 million, in the same quarter of 2022.

The company’s data centre revenue came in at: $14.51 billion, up a massive 279% and above consensus of $12.97 billion. Half of the data centre revenue came from cloud infrastructure providers such as Amazon, and the other from consumer internet and large companies, Nvidia said. Healthy uptake also came from clouds that specialized in renting out GPUs to clients.

Earnings: $4.02 per share, adjusted, vs. $3.37 per share expected

Revenue: $18.12 billion, vs. $16.18 billion expected

The gaming segment contributed $2.86 billion, up 81% and higher than the $2.68 billion general consensus. Nvidia’s future guidance suggested $20 billion in revenue for Q4, implying a nearly 231% revenue growth.

Year on year Nvidia share price movement.

Year on year Nvidia share price movement – Nov 2022 – Nov 2023

During the quarter, Nvidia announced the GH200 GPU, which has more memory than the current H100 and an additional Arm processor onboard. The H100 is expensive and in demand. Nvidia said Australia-based Iris Energy, an owner of bitcoin mining data centers, was buying 248 H100s for $10 million, which works out around $40,000 each.

Nvidia’s revenue grew 206% year over year during the quarter ending 29th October 2023, according to data from Nvidia.

Nvidia share price moved down 1% in after-hours trading on Tuesday 21st November 2023 after the reporting fiscal Q3 results that surpassed predictions. But the company called for a negative impact in the next quarter because of export restrictions affecting sales to organizations in China and other countries.

‘We expect that our sales to these destinations decline significantly in the Q4 2024, though we believe the decline will be more than offset by strong growth in other regions’, Nvidia reported.

OpenAI saga continues – I’m in, I’m out, I’m back. Altman is back after getting the sack!

OpenAI

At the speed of AI, the story at OpenAI moves at lightning speed.

Hundreds of OpenAI employees signed a letter demanding the OpenAI board resign or face an employee exodus to Sam Altman’s new venture at Microsoft ‘imminently‘.

The board then attempted to negotiate Altman’s return, but those talks were unsuccessful.

At the touch of a button – resignation letter sent to the OpenAI board of directors

To the Board of Directors at OpenAI

OpenAI is the world’s leading AI company. We, the employees of OpenAI, have developed the best models and pushed the field to new frontiers. Our work on AI safety and governance shapes global norms. The products we built are used by millions of people around the world. Until now, the company we work for and cherish has never been in a stronger position.

The process through which you terminated Sam Altman and removed Greg Brockman from the board has jeopardized all of this work and undermined our mission and company. Your conduct has made it clear you did not have the competence to oversee OpenAI.

When we all unexpectedly learned of your decision, the leadership team of OpenAI acted swiftly to stabilize the company. They carefully listened to your concerns and tried to cooperate with you on all grounds. Despite many requests for specific facts for your allegations, you have never provided any written evidence. They also increasingly realized you were not capable of carrying out your duties, and were negotiating in bad faith.

The leadership team suggested that the most stabilizing path forward – the one that would best serve our mission, company, stakeholders, employees and the public – would be for you to resign and put in place a qualified board that could lead the company forward in stability. Leadership worked with you around the clock to find a mutually agreeable outcome. Yet within two days of your initial decision, you again replaced interim CEO Mira Murati against the best interests of the company. You also informed the leadership team that allowing the company to be destroyed “would be consistent with the mission.”

Your actions have made it obvious that you are incapable of overseeing OpenAI. We are unable to work for or with people that lack competence, judgement and care for our mission and employees. We, the undersigned, may choose to resign from OpenAI and join the newly announced Microsoft subsidiary run by Sam Altman and Greg Brockman. Microsoft has assured us that there are positions for all OpenAI employees at this new subsidiary should we choose to join. We will take this step imminently, unless all current board members resign, and the board appoints two new lead independent directors, such as Bret Taylor and Will Hurd, and reinstates Sam Altman and Greg Brockman.”

In just 5 days

  • Sam Altman sacked from OpenAI.
  • Altman appears to move to Microsoft.
  • OpenAI staff revolt.
  • No confidence in OpenAI board.
  • Space for staff to move to Microsoft and create new AI company under Altman’s leadership.
  • OpenAI mass employee resignation letter emerges.
  • Microsoft CEO Nadella says OpenAI governance needs to change no matter where Altman ends up.
  • Altman back at OpenAI after board changes.

Now, Altman is back after getting the sack.

So, is all OK at OpenAI? I asked CHATGPT the question, here is the answer…

Searching for: OpenAI news

Generating answers for you…OpenAI

It seems that there is some turmoil at OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT. According to the latest news, the former CEO Sam Altman, who was ousted and hired by Microsoft last week, has made a stunning return to OpenAI as the CEO again1The company also announced a new board of directors, including Bret Taylor, the former chair of Twitter1This comes after a series of protests and resignations from OpenAI employees, who were unhappy with the direction and culture of the company2OpenAI also unveiled new models and products at its DevDay event, such as GPT-4 Turbo, Assistants API, GPT-4 Turbo with Vision, and DALL·E 3 API3. These are some of the developments that have been happening at OpenAI recently. I hope this answers your question. 😊

There you have it, sacked and now back!

Nvidia stock closes at all-time high

AI chip image

Nvidia stock closes at all-time high, a day before earnings

Shares of Nvidia closed up 2.3% at an all-time high of $504 on Monday 20th November 2023. The record comes ahead of the company’s Q3 results due Tuesday 21st November 2023, when analysts are expecting to see revenue growth of over 170%.

And, if that’s not enough, the forecast for Q4, according to some analysts, is likely to show a number close to 200% growth.

Nvidia is still by far the market leader in GPUs for AI, but high prices and competition are fast becoming an issue.

Can Nvidia continue the AI ride and hold this remarkable market share position?

Party politics and petty petulance, an average day at No. 10 Downing Street

Party politics and petty petulance
Party politics and petty petulance – toys out the pram again at No. 10

Welcome politics at No. 10 Downing street

The phrase ‘throwing your toys out of the pram’ is a British idiom that means to behave in a childish or immature way when you are angry or frustrated. It is usually used to criticize someone who is acting unreasonably or making a fuss over something trivial.

Right now, it sums up everyday behaviour at No. 10 Downing Street.

Fired OpenAI co-founder Sam Altman to lead Microsoft’s new AI team

AI robot and human

Sam Altman, the former CEO of OpenAI, who was fired last week in a controversial board decision. 

According to the latest reports, Altman is joining Microsoft to lead a new AI research team that will focus on advanced and ethical AI development.

Altman is a well-known entrepreneur and investor who has been involved in several AI-related projects.

He was one of the co-founders of OpenAI, a research organization that aims to create artificial general intelligence (AGI) that can ‘benefit humanity without causing harm’ or being controlled by a few elite players.

Leadership and ideology clash

However, Altman’s vision and style clashed with some of the board members and researchers at OpenAI, who reportedly accused him of being too ambitious, secretive, and authoritarian. They also reportedly claimed that he was pursuing a dangerous goal of creating artificial superintelligence (ASI).

The disagreements escalated when Altman announced a partnership with Microsoft in 2023, which gave Microsoft exclusive access to OpenAI’s GPT-4 Turbo model, a powerful natural language processing system that can generate realistic text on any given topic. 

Some of the OpenAI staff and community members reportedly felt let-down by this deal, which they saw as a violation of OpenAI’s original mission of creating and sharing ‘AI for the common good’.

On Friday 17th November 2023, the board of OpenAI voted to remove Altman as CEO, citing irreconcilable differences and lack of trust. He was replaced by Emmett Shear, the former CEO of Twitch, who promised to restore transparency and collaboration at OpenAI.

Altman to join Microsoft

Altman did not comment on his dismissal. However, on Monday 20th November 2023, he rocked the AI world by announcing he was joining Microsoft as the head of a new AI research team.

He reportedly said that he was excited to work with Microsoft’s talented people and that he would continue to pursue his vision of creating beneficial and ethical AI for humanity. 

Altman’s move to Microsoft has sparked mixed opinions from the AI community. Some have praised him for his innovation and courage, others have criticized him for his arrogance and recklessness.

There were reports over weekend suggesting employees and investors including Microsoft were pushing for Mr Altman to be reinstated. Some employees resigned in support of Altman.

Some have expressed concern about the potential impact of his new role on the future of AI development and regulation.

Where do OpenAI, Microsoft and the AI go from here?

Singapore to pilot use of wholesale central bank digital currencies in 2024

Central bank digital money

It was reported Friday 17th November 2023 by the city-state’s central bank that Singapore will be piloting the live issuance and use of wholesale central bank digital currencies in 2024.

During the pilot, the Monetary Authority of Singapore, (MAS) will partner with local banks to pilot the use of wholesale CBDCs to facilitate domestic payments.

What is a CBDC?

A CBDC is a digital form of a country’s fiat currency, issued and regulated by the central bank or monetary authority of that country. CBDCs are different from cryptocurrencies, which are decentralized and not backed by any government.

Singapore is one of the countries that has been actively exploring the potential of CBDCs, both for wholesale and retail purposes. Wholesale CBDCs are meant for interbank transactions and cross-border payments, while retail CBDCs are meant for general public use and everyday payments.

CBDC MAS timeline

In November 2021, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) launched Project Orchid, a retail CBDC project that aims to build the infrastructure and test the use cases for a digital Singapore dollar. The project will explore the concept of purpose-bound digital Singapore dollars, which allow senders to specify how and where the money will be used.

In August 2021, MAS announced Project Dunbar, a wholesale CBDC project that involves the collaboration of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank Negara Malaysia, and South African Reserve Bank. The project will develop prototypes of shared platforms for cross-border transactions using multiple CBDC’s.

In June 2021, MAS published a monograph on the economic considerations of a retail CBDC in the Singapore context. The monograph concluded that there is no urgent case for a retail CBDC in Singapore, but MAS wants to be prepared in case the situation changes in the future.

In April 2021, MAS extended the regulatory sandbox for Project Ubin, a wholesale CBDC project that started in 2016. Project Ubin has successfully demonstrated the feasibility of using blockchain technology for clearing and settlement of payments and securities.

Singapore to pilot use of wholesale central bank digital currencies in 2024

In March 2021, MAS joined the Multiple CBDC (m-CBDC) Bridge initiative, a wholesale CBDC project that involves the Bank of Thailand, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, and the Bank for International Settlements. The project will explore the use of distributed ledger technology to enable real-time cross-border transactions using multiple CBDC’s.

Process

Banks will issue tokenized bank liabilities in the form of claims in balance sheets. Retail customers can then use the tokenized bank liabilities in transactions with merchants, who will then credit these bank liabilities with their respective banks. Tokenization refers to the process of issuing a digital form of an asset on a blockchain.

The CBDC will then be automatically transferred to the merchant as a form of payment during the transaction.

Many central banks are testing and exploring their own digital currencies, includung the UK and U.S.

European Central Bank says: Signs that the global economy is fragmenting into competing blocs

European Central Bank

Fear or Fact?

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Friday 17th November 2023 reportedly said that Europe is now at a critical juncture, with deglobalization, demographics and decarbonization looming on the horizon.

Fragmentation

‘There are increasing signs that the global economy is fragmenting into competing blocs’, she said at the European Banking Congress, according to a transcript.

Focusing on Europe, she said that a continuous decline in the population of working age looks set to start as early as 2025, alongside climate disasters that are increasing every year.

Her answer to these shocks was that massive investment would be needed in a short space of time, requiring what she called a ‘generational effort‘.

Barriers

‘As new trade barriers appear, we will need to reassess supply chains and invest in new ones that are safer, more efficient and closer to home‘, Lagarde reportedly said.

‘As our societies age, we will need to deploy new technologies so that we can produce greater output with fewer workers. Digitalization will help. And as our climate warms, we will need to advance the green transition without any further delays‘.

Paving the way for AI?

Retail trouble – UK sales hit lowest level since 2021 lockdowns

UK retail spending slows in October 2023

Shoppers bought less food and fuel in October 2023 as they were hit by rising living costs and poor weather, according to ONS data.

The volume of products sold last month fell by 0.3% to the lowest level since February 2021 when large parts of the UK were in Covid lockdowns. Retail sales had been expected to grow in October 2023.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said fuel purchases may have been ‘affected by increasing prices’.

Demand for other goods was also lower, the ONS reported.

The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, which tracks card transactions, also reported a drop in consumer spending in October 2023, with retail sales, excluding autos and petrol/diesel, falling by 0.08%, and core retail, which also removes restaurants, declining by 0.03%. 

The report suggested that the consumer took a spending break ahead of the holiday season, amid rising inflation, supply chain disruptions, and labour shortages.

UK inflation presented a bigger drop in October 2023 than expected – this will likely drive higher retail spending through the holiday period.

Higher pay and lower inflation will provide a lift through the Christmas 2023 holidays.