‘Prime Minister, you may wish to read my resignation letter before sacking me.’ ‘Was it something I said?’
Does the stock market think the Fed is going to start cutting rates aggressively any time soon?
Probably not, any time soon…
Observing the data available at CME FedWatch the stock market does not seem to expect the Fed to start cutting rates aggressively anytime soon, this opinion is based on the current pricing data of the fed-funds futures market.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut in the next FOMC meeting on 13th December 2023 is very low. It is likely interest rates will be left unchanged.
The market seems to expect the Fed will hold the current rate of 5.25% until at least March 2024, but will then gradually lower it to 4.75% by December 2024.
The market seems to be more optimistic about the U.S. economic outlook and the Fed’s ability to control inflation. The mood on rates has been buoyed recently with inflation data coming in better than expected.
It is highly likely that the Fed will have to cut rates more aggressively in 2024 and 2025 to stimulate the economy and avoid a potential prolonged recession.
Microsoft announces custom AI chip November 2023
Microsoft is working on its own artificial intelligence chip, code-named Athena, that could compete with Nvidia’s products.
The company introduced two new microchips.
The first, its Maia 100 artificial intelligence chip, could compete with Nvidia’s highly sought-after AI graphics processing units.
The second, a Cobalt 100 Arm chip, is aimed at general computing tasks and could compete with Intel processors.
The chip is designed for training large language models (LLM’s) like ChatGPT and powering AI applications. Microsoft has been developing the chip since 2019 using Taiwan Semiconductor’s 5-nanometer process. The chip is currently being tested by a small select group of Microsoft and OpenAI employees.
Long-term objective
Microsoft’s objective is to reduce its dependency on third-party hardware providers and to customize its AI infrastructure for its own projects.
Microsoft has invested billions in OpenAI, which makes ChatGPT, to enhance its position in the AI field. The Athena chip could also enable Microsoft to add AI capabilities to its Office products and GitHub, but it has already achieved this using the OpenAI system.
Microsoft has not announced when the chip will be available to the public or to its Azure cloud customers.
IMF says now is the time for central bank digital currencies
IMF’s Kristalina Georgieva reportedly said that the public sector should keep preparing to deploy central bank digital currencies (CBDC’s) and related payment platforms in the future.
But according to data from the Atlantic Council, only 11 countries have adopted CDBC’s thus far.
Alternative to cash
Central bank digital currencies (CBDC’s) have the potential to replace cash. But adoption could take time, said Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund on Wednesday 15th November 2023.
‘CBDC’s can replace cash which is costly to distribute”, she is reported to have said at the Singapore FinTech event. ‘They can offer resilience in more advanced economies. And they can improve financial inclusion where few hold bank accounts’.
‘CBDC’s would offer a safe and low-cost alternative to cash. They would also offer a bridge between private monies and a yardstick to measure their value, just like cash today which we can withdraw from our banks’, the IMF chief reportedly said.
Fiat currency
CBDC’s are the digital form of a country’s fiat currency, which are regulated by the country’s central bank. They are powered by blockchain technology, allowing central banks to channel government payments directly to households.
The IMF has indicated that more than 100 countries are exploring CBDC’s – that’s approximately 60% of countries in the world.
‘The level of global interest in CBDCs is unprecedented. Several central banks have already launched pilots or even issued a CBDC’, the IMF said in a September 2023 report.
According to a 2022 survey conducted by the Bank for International Settlements, of the 86 central banks surveyed, 93% said they were exploring CBDCs, while 58% said they were likely to or may possibly issue a retail CBDC in either the short or medium term.
But as of June 2023, only 11 countries had adopted CBDC’s, with an additional 53 in advanced planning stages and 46 researching, according to data from the Atlantic Council.
UK inflation falls sharply to 4.6% October 2023
UK inflation fell to 4.6% in October 2023, down from 6.7% in September 2023.
This is the lowest rate of price increases since 2021 and the bigger than expected fall should provide some relief to UK households gripped by the cost-of-living crisis.
The main factors that contributed to the drop in inflation were largely due to lower energy prices, food and non-alcoholic drink prices, and airfares. Economists suggested that the main reason inflation fell from its peak of 11.1% in October 2022 was due to the fall in the energy price cap, which limits what suppliers can charge consumers per unit of energy.
Office for National Statistics Data (ONS)
However, the UK still has the highest inflation rate of any G7 country, and some economists warn that the Bank of England (BoE) may need to raise interest rates to prevent inflation from rising again.
Target hit
The UK government will no doubt rejoice today as the end-of-year 5% has been achieved earlier than expected. But don’t party too early, the actual target is 2%. There is a limit to how much credit ministers can take for the fall as energy prices settle.
The FTSE100 was happy, it climbed some 100 points in morning trade.
U.S. inflation flat for October from September 2023, core CPI hits two-year low giving a boost to equities
U.S. Inflation was flat in October from the previous month, providing a positive sign that high prices are finally easing their tight grip on the U.S. economy. Is this also a green light for the Federal Reserve to stop raising interest rates.
The consumer price index (CPI) was flat in October 2023 from the previous month but up 3.2% from a year ago. Both were below analysts’ estimates, sparking a major stock market rally.
Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI rose 0.2% and 4%, against the forecast of 0.3% and 4.1%. The annual rate was the smallest increase since September 2021.
The flat reading on the headline CPI came as energy prices declined 2.5% for the month, offsetting a 0.3% increase in the food index.
Traders do not anticipate that the Fed will raise interest rates in December 2023, according to data from the CME Group.
U.S. Treasury yields fall
U.S. Treasury yields fell on Tuesday 14th November 2023 as key inflation data showed a surprisingly ‘soft’ change in prices last month.
The 10-year Treasury yield fell to about 4.45%. The 2-year Treasury yield fell more to under 4.9%.
Good data
Inflation stabilising, yields falling and equities up – are the stars aligning for a stock market rally leading into Christmas 2023?
‘All the world’s a stage, and all the men and women merely players. They have their exits and their entrances; and one man in his time plays many parts’.
William Shakespeare 1564 – 1616
This is from As You Like It, Act 2, Scene 7, where Jaques describes the ages of human life.
Nvidia unveils its newest GH200 high-end AI superchip
Nvidia has recently announced its latest high-end chip, the GH200 Grace Hopper Superchip, which is designed for training AI models at giant scale.
The GH200 is a breakthrough accelerated CPU that combines the NVIDIA Grace™ and Hopper™ architectures using NVIDIA® NVLink®-C2C to deliver a CPU+GPU coherent memory model for AI and HPC applications. The superchip delivers up to 10X higher performance for applications running terabytes of data, enabling scientists and researchers to reach unprecedented solutions for the world’s most complex problems.
The technical bit
The GH200 features 72 cores of Grace CPU outfitted with 480 GB of ECC LPDDR5X memory, as well as the GH100 compute GPU that is paired with 141 GB of HBM3E memory that comes in six 24 GB stacks and uses a 6,144-bit memory interface.
The GH200 also has a new 900 gigabytes per second (GB/s) coherent interface, which is 7X faster than PCIe Gen5, and supercharges accelerated computing and generative AI with HBM3 and HBM3e GPU memory. The GH200 can run all NVIDIA software stacks and platforms, including NVIDIA AI Enterprise, HPC SDK, and Omniverse™.
The GH200 is available as part of the NVIDIA DGX GH200, a massive memory supercomputer that fully connects 256 GH200 Superchips into a singular GPU. The DGX GH200 offers 144 terabytes (TB) of shared memory with linear scalability for giant AI models.
The DGX GH200 is a turnkey data centre-class solution that includes integrated software and white-glove services from NVIDIA, from design to deployment, to speed the ROI of AI.
The DGX GH200 is the only AI supercomputer that offers a massive, shared memory space of 144TB across 256 NVIDIA Grace Hopper Superchips, providing developers with nearly 500X more memory to build giant models.
UK pay outstrips inflation by highest amount for two years
Pay growth has outstripped inflation by the most since 2021, in a further sign that the pressure on living costs may be starting to ease.
Regular pay rose at an annual rate of 7.7% between July and September 2023, official figures show; higher than average inflation over the same three months.
But job vacancies fell for the 16th month in row, in a worrying sign that the jobs market is weakening. Between August and October 2023, the estimated number of vacancies in the UK fell to 957000, down 58000 – although the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the total remains well above pre-pandemic levels.
Data Source: Office for National Statistics Data
The UK’s unemployment rate was largely unchanged between July to September 2023 at 4.2%, according to ONS data.
Xbox gaming platform goes offline
Microsoft has confirmed problems with accessing its Xbox gaming platform and Teams messaging app in the UK and Europe have now been resolved.
More than 1500 people in the UK reported issues with Xbox Live, according to the outage tracker Downdetector. A similar number also said there were problems with the Teams app.
It left some who had purchased the latest game in the Call of Duty series unable to play. But Microsoft said this had since been fixed.
An artificial increase in synthetic network traffic – whatever that is
On X, Microsoft said the services were impacted by ‘an artificial increase in synthetic network traffic’. Could someone please explain to me what this actually means…? Microsoft went on to say: ‘We’ve made configuration changes to remediate impact and after monitoring the service, we’ve confirmed the issue is now resolved.’ Microsoft previously said it had ‘identified some anomalies within our network infrastructure’. Really, what do these explanations actually explain?
Problem unique to UK & Europe
The problem was unique to customers in the UK and Germany, Microsoft had said earlier on Friday, but it was also reported, on social media, that people in Sweden, Finland and Poland had been unable to access services.
There were reports from both of these countries on Downdetector, as well as other European countries.
‘The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, but in ourselves’.
William Shakespeare 1564 -1616
This quote is from Shakespeare’s play, Julius Caesar, Act 1, Scene 2, where Cassius tries to persuade Brutus to join the conspiracy against Caesar by appealing to his sense of free will.
Ex-NatWest boss loses out on £7.6 million pay deal after Farage fiasco
Dame Alison Rose, the former chief executive of NatWest Group, will lose out on £7.6m after she admitted to discussing the closure of Nigel Farage’s bank account with a BBC journalist.
Another word for getting the sack?
She ‘resigned’ from the banking group in July 2023, after the former Ukip leader complained about a BBC report that claimed his accounts with Coutts, a private bank owned by NatWest, were closed for commercial reasons.
Apology
The BBC later apologised and amended its story, saying that it had checked with a senior source, whom Dame Alison later confirmed was herself, that Mr Farage’s accounts were closed because he fell below Coutts’s wealth threshold.
The Information Commissioner’s Office (ICO) initially suggested that Dame Alison had breached data privacy laws by confirming Mr Farage’s banking arrangements, but later issued a formal apology, saying it was ‘incorrect’ and that it had not investigated her.
Pay deal of £2.4 million
Dame Alison will receive her £2.4 million fixed pay package but will not benefit from share awards and bonuses she had previously been entitled to.
Her saga reportedly wiped £850m off the value of NatWest Group. The long-term damage to the bank and banking sector likely hasn’t been fully realised yet.
It’s about trust and privacy, isn’t it?
UK economy flatlines
The U.K. economy flatlined in the third quarter, initial figures showed Friday 10th November 2023.
Gross domestic product (GDP) showed zero quarterly growth in the three months to the end of September 2023, following an increase of 0.2% in the previous quarter. In annual terms, the UK’s Q3 GDP was 0.6% higher than in the same period in 2022.
Services sector output dropped 0.1% on the quarter, but the decline was offset by a 0.1% increase in construction performance, while the production sector flatlined.
U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt said high inflation remains the ‘single greatest barrier to economic growth’ in the country, with the consumer price index remaining at 6.7% year-on-year in September 2023.
‘The best way to sustainably grow our economy right now is to stick to our plan and knock inflation on its head’, Hunt reportedly said.
It’s useful to know the government have a plan, even though they were very late to the inflation party! Guess they were sidetracked with all the other parties at No.10!
‘The Autumn Statement will focus on how we get the economy growing healthily again by unlocking investment, getting people back into work and reforming our public services so we can deliver the growth our country needs’.
Up until September 2023, the Bank of England (BoE) raised interest rates 14 consecutive times to try to influence the UK ‘product and service’ price climb.
Red flags
Interest rates are now at a 15-year high of 5.25%, and are expected to remain high for some time to come. Bank Governor Andrew Bailey reportedly said last week it was ‘much too early’ to be considering rate cuts.
Thank you Governor Baily – it so comforting and reassuring to know that the very people who missed the red inflation flags are still in charge of policy.
Transitory?
Remember, the BoE and others originally suggested inflation would be transitory – I suppose it is, if given years to move back down. What did you think was going to happen after all that borrowing and the country crawling back to work after the pandemic.
Nice job guys! Don’t forget to collect your paycheque on the way out!
Moody’s cuts U.S. outlook to negative
Moody’s, a credit rating agency, lowered its ratings outlook on the United States to negative from stable.
This means that Moody’s sees a higher risk of a downgrade in the future, which could affect the borrowing costs and confidence of the U.S. government.
Moody’s actions
The main reasons for Moody’s action are the rising deficits and debt levels of the U.S., as well as the continued political polarization that hampers effective policymaking. Moody’s also cited the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the recent failures of some U.S. banks as factors that have worsened the environment for the U.S. government and the banking system in general.
Warning!
Moody’s warned that the U.S.’s deficits are likely to remain ‘very large’. It also warned that ‘continued political turmoil or polarization’ in Congress further increases the risk the U.S. will not be able to reach consensus on a fiscal plan to slow the decline in debt affordability‘.
Moody’s still maintains a triple ‘A’ (AAA) credit rating on the U.S. government debt, which is the highest possible rating, but warns of the challenges and uncertainties that the U.S. faces in restoring its fiscal strength and stability.
The ‘AAA‘ rating is at risk.
U.S. government on brink of shutdown, again
The federal government is on the brink of another shutdown, with just a week left for the Republican-led House, Democratic-led Senate and Biden White House to reach a breakthrough on funding.
The Fed is ‘not confident’ according to Jerome Powell
Fed Chair Jerome Powell reportedly said he and his colleagues remain steadfast in getting policy in line with their 2% inflation target, but ‘we are not confident that we have achieved such a stance’.
He stressed the Fed nevertheless can be cautious as the risks between doing too much and too little have come into closer balance.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reportedly said Thursday 9th November 2023 that he and his fellow policymakers are encouraged by the slowing pace of inflation but are unsure whether they’ve done enough to keep the momentum going.
Inflation battle
Speaking a little more than a week after the central bank voted to hold rates steady, Powell said in remarks aimed at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) gathering in Washington, D.C., that more work could be ahead in the battle against high prices.
The statement comes with inflation still well above the Fed’s long-standing goal but also considerably below its peak levels in the first half of 2022. After 11 U.S. rate hikes, we have witnessed the most aggressive policy tightening since the early 1980s, the FOMC have increased rates from pretty much zero to a range of 5.25%-5.5%.
Those increases have coincided with the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core personal consumption expenditures price index, to fall to an annual rate of 3.7%, from 5.3% in February 2022. The more widely followed consumer price index peaked above 9% in June of last year.
Progress
Powell referenced the progress the economy has made. Gross domestic product (GDP) accelerated at a ‘quite strong’ 4.9% annualised pace Q3 2023, though Powell also said the expectation is for growth to ‘moderate in coming quarters’. He described the economy as ‘just remarkable’ in 2023 in the face of a broad expectation that a recession was inevitable.
Nothing like a massive ‘self-pat’ on the back for a job well-done? Remember the Fed’s initial analysis? IT was for inflation to be ‘transitory’. They didn’t get that right either.
Futures pricing, according to the CME Group, suggested there’s less than a 10% chance that the FOMC will approve a final rate hike at its Dec. 12-13, 2023, meeting, even though committee members in September pencilled in an additional 0.25% rise before the end of 2023.
Traders anticipate the Fed will start cutting rates next year, probably around June 2024.
Bitcoin bashes through $37000 and closes in on $38000
Bitcoin rose to a new high for 2023 on Thursday 9th November 2023 as optimism around a potential Bitcoin ETF approval continued to build.
The price of the Bitcoin rose more than 6% to climb above $37000 for the first time since May 2022. It touched $37900 before drifting back slightly. Ether was little changed but held recent gains and was trading just below the $2000 level.
The rise in the Bitcoin triggered a wave of short liquidation overnight, which aided and propelled crypto prices higher.
Over the past year, cryptocurrencies in general have been desperately searching for a catalyst and the ETF news has been just that. We may witness another big surge when the ETF news fully breaks.
Altcoins
Other crypto assets as well as crypto equities enjoyed the Bitcoin price wave. Solana, one of the biggest outperformers in crypto this year, gained 11%. The tokens related to Cardano and Polygon rose 4% and 3%.
When Bitcoin surges, Ether and other altcoins tend to follow suit. Bitcoin is up over 120% year-to-date, we are seeing many other coins turning bullish now too, and trading volumes are picking up.
OpenAI’s ChatGPT experiences ‘major’ outage
ChatGPT, OpenAI’s chatbot is back online after experiencing a brief but major outage Wednesday am, 8th November 2023.
The chatbot began returning errors before 9 a.m. ET, affecting OpenAI’s API users, which are used by more than two million developers. ChatGPT users were also told that ‘ChatGPT is at capacity right now’ and a status page referred to the issue as a ‘major outage’.
‘We’ve identified an issue resulting in high error rates across the API and ChatGPT, and we are working on remediation’, OpenAI shared in a status report at 9:50 a.m. ET.
Full services were restored by about 10:50 a.m. ET.
Bu what caused the outage?
Nintendo to make Zelda movie
Nintendo said on Wednesday 8th November 2023 it plans to develop a live-action film of The Legend of Zelda, one of its most popular game franchises.
Nintendo has been encouraged by the success of The Super Mario Bros. Movie which has generated more than $1 billion at the box office since its April 2023 release.
Nintendo shares surged 6% in Japan on Wednesday 6th November 2023 on the Zelda movie news, and after the company raised its sales and profit forecast for the fiscal year.
U.S. credit card balances climbed to a $1.08 trillion record in Q3 2023
U.S. citizens now owe $1.08 trillion on their credit cards, according to a new report on household debt from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
U.S. Household Debt Rises to $17.29 Trillion Led by Mortgage, Credit Card, and Student Loan Balances
Total household debt rose by 1.3% to reach $17.29 trillion in the third quarter of 2023, according to the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit.
Mortgage balances increased to $12.14 trillion, credit card balances to $1.08 trillion, and student loan balances to $1.6 trillion.
Auto loan balances increased to $1.6 trillion, continuing the upward trajectory seen since 2011. Other balances, which include retail credit cards and other consumer loans, were effectively flat at $0.53 trillion. Delinquency transition rates increased for most debt types, except for student loans.
See analysis: new report on household debt
Microsoft closes at all-time high
Microsoft ended Tuesday’s trading session at a record high of $360.53, following fresh optimism about growth from a key partner in artificial intelligence (AI). The increase gives the company a market value of about $2.68 trillion.
At a tech event on Monday 6th November 2023, Microsoft’s AI partner, OpenAI, announced a batch of updates, including price cuts and plans to allow people to make custom versions of the ChatGPT chatbot.
Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella attended and emphasized that developers building applications with OpenAI’s tools could get to market quickly by deploying their software on Microsoft’s Azure cloud infrastructure.
Microsoft has invested a reported $13 billion in OpenAI, which has granted Microsoft an exclusive licence on OpenAI’s GPT-4 large language model that can generate human-like prose in response to a few words of text.
Last week, Microsoft announced the release of an AI add-on for its Office productivity app subscriptions and an assistant in Windows 11, both of which rely on OpenAI models.
The future is looking bright for Microsoft right now.
AI just negotiated a contract for the first time ever
In a world first, it was recently reported that artificial intelligence (AI) demonstrated the ability to negotiate a contract autonomously with another artificial intelligence without any human involvement.
Luminance at its London headquarters, demonstrated its AI, called Autopilot, negotiating a non-disclosure agreement in a matter of minutes.
It marks the first time AI has ever negotiated a contract with another AI, with no human involvement.
The only input from a human that is still required, is the signing of the contract.
IBM pivots to AI – STOCK WATCH
An old well established and trusted tech brand pivoting to AI that has a high dividend yield is IBM, which has been around for more than a century and is known for both its hardware and software products.
IBM is investing heavily in AI, cloud computing, and quantum computing, and has recently acquired several AI start-ups, such as Instana, Turbonomic, and Waeg.
IBM also has a partnership with OpenAI, one of the leading AI research organizations, to provide cloud infrastructure for its AI models.
Investors who love IBM expect the company to grow its earnings by around 10% annually over the next five years. Investors were also impressed with IBM’s dividend yield, which is currently around 4.5%. Dividends are a great way to generate passive income.
IBM is not the only tech company that is pivoting to AI. Google, Microsoft, and Anthropic are competing in the field of generative AI, which can create text, images, music, and more from natural language prompts.
Integrate generative AI
These companies are attempting to integrate generative AI into their products and services, such as search engines, maps, word processors, office applications, chatbots, and more. Generative AI is seen as a game-changer for many industries and applications, and could potentially disrupt the dominance of Big Tech.
Legacy companies can pivot to a platform model, which is a business strategy that connects producers and consumers of value through a digital interface. Platform companies like Facebook, Amazon, Google, and Tencent have created value at stunning rates, and have grown rapidly and own large market shares.
Legacy companies can leverage their existing systems, such as customer relationships, data, and brand recognition, to create platforms that offer impressive and immersive products and services.
Other successful platform pivots are Disney+, which transformed Disney from a media producer to a media platform; Nike+, which connected Nike’s physical products with digital services; and John Deere, which created a platform for precision agriculture.
Berkshire Hathaway posts a 40% jump in operating earnings
The Omaha-based conglomerate’s operating earnings totalled $10.761 billion last quarter, 40.6% higher than from the same quarter in 2022.
Berkshire held a record level of cash at the end of September 2023 of $157.2 billion.
The ‘Oracle of Omaha’ has been taking advantage of surging bond yields, buying up short-term Treasury bills yielding at least 5%.
Geico, the crown jewel of Berkshire’s insurance empire, reported another profitable quarter.
Warren Buffet probably the greatest consistent investor the world has ever seen.
Europe’s answer to OpenAI, Aleph Alpha, raises $500 million
As OpenAI ChatGPT continue to take the AI world by storm, others play catch-up.
Aleph Alpha, which has built its own large language models, raised $500 million backed by Bosch, SAP and Hewlett Packard Enterprise.
It is reported that Aleph Alpha will use the new funds to invest in research on foundation models, advanced product capabilities and marketing of its software.
A big part of what Aleph Alpha is pushing for with its technology is a concept known as ‘data sovereignty’ the concept that data stored in a certain country is subject to that country’s laws.
The fund-raising round was backed predominantly by German firms, with enterprise IT giant SAP and Schwarz Group, (the owner of Lidl). Park Artificial Intelligence and Burda Principal Investments also invested.
If you were wondering…
Aleph is the first letter of the Hebrew alphabet and Alpha is the first letter of the Greek alphabet.
Nintendo continues to be the game master
Nintendo reported better-than-expected sales and profit for fiscal Q2 on Tuesday 6th November 2023 as it continues to benefit from the Zelda game released this year and from the Super Mario Movie.
Nintendo said it sold 6.84 million Switch consoles in the April to September period, up 2.4% year-on-year. The company maintained its forecast for 15 million Switch unit sales. The Nintendo Switch is 6 years old – pretty good going for an old console.
Nintendo raised its sales and profit forecast for its current fiscal year. Nintendo’s revenue fell 4% year-on-year and its profit dropped 19%.
Sales in the first half of the fiscal year were the largest since the launch of the Switch, Nintendo reportedly said in a statement.
Bad news for the U.S. economy is good news for the stock market… isn’t it?
The market reaction to the U.S. jobs report comes down to a simple observation: bad news is good news, as long as it is not too bad.
Stocks rallied sharply after the Labour Department said nonfarm payrolls rose by 150,000 in October 2023, 20,000 fewer than expected but a difference caused mostly by the auto strikes, which appear to be over – a case of bad news is good news.
For the Federal Reserve, the relatively constrained job creation coupled with wage gains nearly in line with expectations adds up to a scenario in which the central bank doesn’t really have to do anything.
The Fed finally got what it’s been looking for – a meaningful slowdown in the labour market.