Tag: Economy

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U.S. rate cut looking more likely as Fed key inflation measure rose 2.5% in June 2024 over the year

U.S. Inflation

The personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) increased 0.1% in June 2024 and was up 2.5% from a year ago, with the annual rate showing a slight decline from the prior month

Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, showed a monthly increase of 0.2% and 2.6% on the year, both also in line with expectations.

Personal income rose just 0.2%, below the 0.4% estimate. Spending increased 0.3%, meeting the forecast, while the personal savings rate decreased to 3.4%.

This PCE reading may encourage the Fed to cut rates now.

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U.S. economy grew by 2.8% in Q2 – better than expected

U.S. economy

In the second quarter of 2024, the U.S. economy expanded at a strong annual rate of 2.8%, exceeding economists’ forecasts.

This surge was fueled by positive consumer spending, substantial government expenditures, and increased inventories.

The personal consumption expenditures price index saw a 2.6% rise in the same timeframe, a decrease from the prior quarter’s 3.4% climb as core prices, which exclude food and energy, increased by 2.9%.

The data suggests a continued deceleration in the personal savings rate, standing at 3.5% for the quarter, down from 3.8% in the first quarter.

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China’s exports beat forecast – but imports drop

Bust container port

In June 2024, China’s imports fell by 2.3% year-on-year in U.S. dollar terms, missing the expected 2.8% growth forecast by analysts.

However, exports rose by 8.6%, surpassing the anticipated 8% growth. This resulted in a 2% increase in year-to-date imports and a 3.6% rise in exports for the first half of the year compared to the same period last year.

Additionally, China’s trade with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) surged by 7.1% in the first half of the year, solidifying ASEAN as China’s largest regional trading partner, followed by the European Union.

Trade with Brazil grew rapidly in the first half of the year, with Chinese exports to the country surging by 24.4%.

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Federal Reserve chair Powell says keeping rates high for too long could jeopardize growth

Banker giving a speech

Jerome Powell on Tuesday 9th July 2024 reportedly expressed concern that holding interest rates too high for too long could jeopardize economic growth. This comment came ahead of the consumer price index reading due this week.

Preparing for a two-day session on Capitol Hill, the central bank chief stated that the economy and labour market continue to be robust, even with some recent slowdown. Powell noted a slight reduction in inflation, affirming that policymakers are determined to reduce it to their target of 2%.

“At the same time, in light of the progress made both in lowering inflation and in cooling the labour market over the past two years, elevated inflation is not the only risk we face,” he reportedly said. “Reducing policy restraint too late or too little could unduly weaken economic activity and employment.”

Sounds to me like he is paving the way for the first interest rate reduction.

The comment ties-in with the upcoming one-year period since the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) last increased the benchmark interest rates.

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S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs again as job data raises chance of a Fed interest rate cut

U.S. market record highs

Markets respond positively to job data as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq break record highs, again!

S&P 500 record high

S&P 500 record high Friday 5th July 2024

Nasdaq Composite record high

Nasdaq Composite record high

Nasdaq 100 record high

Nasdaq 100 record high

U.S. non-farm payrolls increase

The U.S. economy added slightly more jobs than expected in June 2024 though the unemployment rate increased, the U.S. Labor Department reported Friday.

Non-farm payrolls increased by 206,000 for the month, better than the 200,000 Dow Jones forecast though less than the downwardly revised gain of 218,000 in May, which was cut sharply from the initial estimate of 272,000.

The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.1%, matching the peak since October 2021, presenting a conundrum for Federal Reserve officials as they consider their next steps in monetary policy. Projections had indicated that the unemployment rate would remain stable at 4%.

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China manufacturing and Japan’s GDP contracts – Asia markets mixed

Economic data

Over the last weekend of June 2024, China released its official PMI figures, with the manufacturing PMI remaining at 49.5, the same as in May 2024, indicating a second consecutive month of contraction.

On Monday 1st July 2024, Japan adjusted its first-quarter GDP figures, showing a contraction of 2.9% year-on-year, a revision from the previously reported 1.8%.

Asia markets started the second half 2024 mixed as investors assessed June business activity data from China as well as Japan’s GDP revision.

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Japanese yen slumps to fresh 38-year low against the U.S. dollar

Yen slumps against dollar

On Friday 28th June 2024, the Japanese yen dropped to its lowest point in 38 years, surpassing the 161 threshold against the dollar reached for the first time since December 1986.

The yen has faced challenges, slipping beyond the 160 mark again.

Since the Bank of Japan concluded its negative interest rate policy and reportedly abandoned its yield curve control policy in March 2024, the yen has been on a consistent decline.

After this policy change, the yen breached the 150 level against the U.S. dollar and hit 160 in late April 2024, which prompted intervention by the country’s finance ministry.

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Have you heard of the ‘Sahm Rule’ recession indicator?

Rules in a book

The ‘Sahm Rule’ serves as a heuristic indicator employed by the Federal Reserve to ascertain the onset of a recession in the economy.

The Sahm Rule is a real-time evaluation tool based on monthly unemployment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Named after economist Claudia Sahm, it forecasts the onset of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) increases by 0.50% or more compared to its lowest point in the preceding 12 months.

This simple yet effective indicator helps policymakers monitor economic cycles and respond accordingly

Time to cut according to the ‘Sahm Rule’

Sahm has reportedly stated that the Fed is taking a significant risk by not implementing gradual rate cuts now. Last week, Federal Reserve officials significantly reduced their forecasts for rate cuts this year, shifting from three anticipated reductions noted in the March 2024 meeting to just one.

According to the creator of a well-established rule for predicting recessions, the Federal Reserve is risking an economic contraction by not lowering interest rates immediately.

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UK GDP flatlines – not so helpful for Sunak and his election campaign

UK GDP slows

In April 2024, the U.K.’s economic growth came to a standstill, figures released on Wednesday 12th June 2024 indicated, putting a pause on the subdued recovery from the previous year’s recession just weeks before the UK election.

Analysts had anticipated growth a levelling off following a 0.4% expansion in March 2024.

Over a longer period however, the outlook was slightly more positive, with a 0.7% increase in gross domestic product (GDP) in the three months leading up to April 2024.

The construction sector saw a 1.4% decrease, marking its third consecutive decline, and production output fell by 0.9%. However, the U.K.’s dominant service sector witnessed growth, with a 0.2% increase.

The UK had managed modest growth each month in the first quarter of the 2024 as the country emerged from a mild short technical recession.

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Bad economic news can be good for stocks

Bad news and good news

Bad economic news appears to have had an interesting impact on the stock market recently.

Traditionally, negative economic data might be anticipated to result in falling stock prices; however, recent trends have diverged from this norm.

News trend

In the past two months, negative economic news has had a paradoxically positive effect on equities. Investors have responded well to poor economic indicators, partly due to the belief that these could lead the Federal Reserve to begin reducing interest rates.

Dollar and the stock market

In recent times, the S&P 500, a large-cap equity index, and the U.S. dollar have exhibited a nearly perfect correlation. As the dollar has seen a gradual decline, the stock market has conversely experienced a rise. Typically, investors flock to the security of cash, and consequently the dollar, in times of uncertainty, yet they also channel investments into stocks upon the arrival of favourable news.

Economic data

Despite the upbeat trend in the stock market, real economic data has frequently fallen short of Wall Street’s predictions. The Citi Economic Surprise Index, a gauge that compares data to expectations, has been on a downward trajectory. This suggests that expectations have been surpassing the actual economic conditions, signalling that the economic situation may not be as favorable as previously thought.

Dilemma for the Fed

The Federal Reserve methodically reviews economic indicators to influence their interest rate decisions. Typically, unfavorable economic reports might prompt the Fed to reduce rates, unless there’s an uptick in inflation. Escalating inflation generally nudges the Fed towards a tighter monetary policy.

Monthly data roll-out

Data concerning the U.S. labour market presented to the Fed and markets may create that ‘pivotal’ moment – it often does – markets move of Fed comments and ‘awaited’ news. Reports detailing job openings, private sector job creation, and the Bureau of Labour Statistics’ nonfarm payrolls will shed light on the economy’s condition.

If job growth remains within the ‘Goldilocks range’ (neither too strong nor too weak), it may preserve the fragile equilibrium where unfavourable economic news has paradoxically favoured stock prices, while preventing excessive gloom.

Conclusion

To summarize, although adverse economic news has lately been advantageous for stock markets, monitoring this precarious balance is crucial. Excessive pessimism could be a harbinger of impending difficulties, despite its current benefits.

Note about Citigroup Economic Surprise Index

The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index is the sum of the difference between the actual value of various economic data and their consensus forecast. If the index is greater than zero, it means that the overall economic performance is generally better than expected, and the S&P 500 has a high probability of strengthening, and vice versa.

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UK retail sales flop 2.3% in April, missing estimates

UK retail sales

Wet weather was to blame for the U.K. retail sales volumes drop of 2.3% in April 2024.

Shoppers were deterred from the high street, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said Friday 24th May 2024.

Economists expected a smaller retail sales fall of 0.4%.

Sales volumes declined across multiple sectors, with clothing retailers, sports equipment, games and toys stores, and furniture outlets experiencing a downturn as adverse weather conditions led to a decrease in customer visits, according to the ONS.

March’s figure was revised from flat to a 0.2% decline.

Sales increased by 0.7% over the three months leading up to April, compared to the preceding three months, despite a sluggish December and holiday season. However, there was a 0.8% decline when compared with the same period last year.

Will the Bank of England (BoE) drop interest rates in June now that inflation is down to 2.3% – close to the target of 2%?

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UK headline inflation rate falls to lowest in three years but comes in hotter than expected

The April inflation came in higher than anticipated, falling to 2.3%, as reported by the Office for National Statistics on Wednesday 22nd May 2024.

Traders have now reduced their expectations of a June interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE). Markets reacted negatively in early trading.

The headline inflation rate decreased from 3.2% in March, marking the first instance since July 2021 that inflation has fallen below 3%, nearing the Bank of England’s target of 2%.

Contrary to the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters, who expected a more significant drop to 2.1%, services inflation – a critical indicator monitored by the BOE due to its significance in the UK economy and as a gauge of domestically generated price increases – only fell marginally to 5.9% from 6%, missing the anticipated 5.5% from the BOE.

Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, decreased to 3.9% in April from 4.2% in March.

The substantial decline in the headline rate was largely anticipated due to the year-on-year decrease in energy prices. However, investors shifted their attention to core and services inflation following indications from BOE policymakers of a potential interest rate cut later in the summer, contingent on new data.

After the data release, the market-makers probability of a June rate cut plummeted to 15% from 50% and the chance of an August cut also fell to 40% from 70%.

Lingering concerns over underlying inflationary pressures mean a June rate cut is unlikely. However, these figures may convince more rate setters to vote to ease policy, providing a signal that a summer rate cut is still a possibility.

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Much Ado About Nothing – UK GDP and the ‘r’ word

UK recession is over... already!

The U.K. economy has recovered from its ‘technical’ recession, with the gross domestic product (GDP) increasing by 0.6% in the first quarter, surpassing expectations.

Official figures released on Friday revealed this growth, which exceeded the 0.4% predicted by economists surveyed by Reuters for the previous quarter.

In the latter half of 2023, the U.K. experienced a mild recession due to ongoing inflationary pressures impacting economic performance.

Technically there is no official definition of a recession – however, two straight quarters of negative growth is widely accepted as a technical recession.

The production sector in the U.K. saw an expansion of 0.8% from January to March, whereas the construction sector experienced a decline of 0.9%. The economy witnessed a growth of 0.4% in March on a monthly basis, succeeding a 0.2% increase in February.

According to the Office for National Statistics, the services sector, which is vital to the U.K. economy, grew for the first time since the first quarter of 2023. This growth of 0.7% was primarily propelled by the transport services industry, marking its most significant quarterly growth since 2020.

Much Ado About Nothing

‘Much Ado About Nothing’ is a comedy by William Shakespeare, written around 1598 – 1599. The play is included in the First Folio, published in 1623, and is set in the Italian city of Messina.

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IMF says Russia is expected to grow faster than all advanced economies in 2024

Oil

The International Monetary Fund calculates that Russia’s economy will expand more rapidly than all advanced economies this year.

According to the latest World Economic Outlook released by the IMF, Russia’s economy is projected to expand by 3.2% in 2024.

This growth outpaces the anticipated growth rates for the U.S. at 2.7%, the U.K. at 0.5%, Germany at 0.2%, and France at 0.7%.

G7 growth percentages

  • Russia at 3.2%
  • U.S. at 2.7%
  • France at 0.7%
  • U.K. at 0.5%
  • Germany at 0.2%

The forecast may be galling for Western countries that have endeavoured to economically isolate, restrict and punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Russia has demonstrated that Western sanctions on its industries have made it more self-sufficient and that private consumption and domestic investment remain resilient.

Oil exports

Oil and commodity exports to nations such as India and China, (two of the largest countries in the world by population) – as well as alleged sanction evasion and high oil prices, have allowed Russia to maintain strong oil export incomes streams.

UK and Europe growth

Outside of Russia, the IMF has revised its forecasts for Europe and the UK, projecting a growth of 0.5% for this year. This positions the UK as the second-lowest performer within the G7 group of advanced economies, trailing behind Germany.

The G7 also includes France, Italy, Japan, Canada and the U.S.

However, UK growth is expected to improve to 1.5% in 2025, placing the UK in the top three best G7 performers, according to the IMF.

The IMF also reported said that interest rates in the UK will remain higher than other advanced nations, close to 4% until 2029.

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UK inflation eases to 3.2% but down less than expected

UK inflation data March 2024

Inflation in the U.K. eased to 3.2% from 3.4% in March, the Office for National Statistics said on Wednesday 17th April 2024.

But a higher-than-expected reading creates more concern as investors push back bets on the timing of the first Bank of England (BoE) rate cut.

Economists expected 3.1% as inflation has been falling gradually since it peaked at 11.1% in late 2022.

Food prices provided the biggest downward drag on the headline rate, the ONS said, while motor fuels pushed it higher.

The core inflation rate, excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, was reported at 4.2%, slightly above the forecasted 4.1%. Services inflation, closely monitored by U.K. monetary policymakers, decreased from 6.1% to 6%, still surpassing the expectations of economists and the Bank of England (BoE).

The March core inflation figure, remaining above 4%, is expected to fuel speculation that inflation is more persistent than recent projections indicated, potentially delaying the anticipated timing of initial interest rate reductions.

UK inflation 3.2% March 2024

UK inflation 3.2% March 2024
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China’s economy expanded by 5.3% in Q1

On a quarter-by-quarter basis, China’s GDP grew 1.6% in the first quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of around expectations of 1.4%.

Beijing’s growth target for 2024 is around 5%.

China’s growth was driven in part by external demand, as export volume grew by 14% year on year.

Industrial output for March grew 4.5% year on year, missing expectations of 6%.

Retail sales grew 3.1% year on year, lower than expectations of 4.6%.

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UK economy grew by 0.1% in February 2024

UK economy

One tenth of 1% is very little but we can at least hope the UK is on it’s on way out of recession

Let’s blame the weather

The economy grew by 0.1%, figures show, boosted by production and manufacturing in areas such as the car sector. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that construction was dampened by wet weather.

The official ONS statistics also revised its previous estimate for January 2024 from 0.2% growth up to 0.3%.

Hunt is happy with 0.1% growth…?

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt reportedly suggested that the new figures were a “welcome sign that the economy is turning a corner”. “We can build on this progress if we stick to our plan,” he added.

That’s good then Jeremy – well done you, nice plan!

UK growth February 2024 at 0.1%

UK growth February 2024 at 0.1%
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UK recession confirmed but early signs of green shoots of recovery have been seen

UK recovery

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has released updated UK GDP figures, confirming that the UK entered a technical recession in the last six months of the previous year.

The new data shows the economy contracted by 0.1% in the three months from June to August 2023, with a further decline of 0.3% in the subsequent financial quarter from September to December 2023. The overall economy grew by 0.1% throughout 2023.

However, early signs suggest that the UK began to recover in January 2024, with initial data indicating some growth, and surveys suggesting this trend may have gained momentum into February and March 2024.

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More than 20% of UK adults not seeking work

Not working

More than a fifth of working-age adults in the UK are currently not actively seeking employment, according to recent figures.

The economic inactivity rate during the period from November 2023 to January 2024 stood at 21.8%, a slight increase compared to the previous year. This means that approximately 9.2 million people aged between 16 and 64 are neither employed nor actively searching for jobs. The total figure has risen by over 700,000 since before the onset of the coronavirus pandemic.

Several factors contribute to this problem

Long-Term Illness: Approximately one-third of the working-age population not participating in the labour force cite long-term illness as the primary reason for their inactivity. Health-related issues have kept a significant portion of the population away from work.

The pandemic: of 2020 caused work flight. 700,000 extra out of the workplace since the coronavirus pandemic Covid 19 hit the UK in 2020.

Students and Education: Students pursuing education are often classified as economically inactive. Their focus on studies and lack of job-seeking activity contribute to this category.

Care Responsibilities: Individuals who care for family members or manage household responsibilities fall into this bracket. Caring duties can be time-consuming and prevent active job hunting.

People with Disabilities: Those with disabilities may face barriers in accessing employment opportunities. Accommodations and inclusive policies are essential to address this issue.

Early Retirement: Some adults choose early retirement, and once retired, they rarely express a desire to return to work. This group contributes significantly to the inactive population.

Discouraged Workers: Individuals who have given up on job searches due to discouragement or lack of suitable opportunities are also part of this category.

Gender Gap: Historically, more women have been classified as economically inactive compared to men. However, this gap has narrowed over the years as more women have entered the workforce.

Age Trends: Recent data indicates that while the number of economically inactive individuals due to illness has decreased, there has been an increase among those aged 16 to 34. Mental health issues are believed to be a contributing factor in this age group.

Persistently high level

The persistently high level of economic inactivity poses challenges for the UK economy. As the country emerges from the pandemic, addressing workforce shortages becomes crucial. Measures such as reducing National Insurance Contributions and extending free childcare services aim to encourage people to seek employment or increase their working hours. 

More effort is needed to further incentivise workforce participation, if not, the UK economy will suffer for many more years than would otherwise be necessary.

Office for national statistics

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UK swings to economic growth in January 2024

UK economy

The economy grew by 0.2%, ONS figures show, boosted by sales in shops and online and from more construction activity.

Hopefully this means the UK is on its way out of recession.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the services sector led the bounce back.

This is an early dataset, but demonstrates how the UK, which entered recession at the end of 2023, is faring.

ONS data suggests UK could be exiting a short-lived ‘technical’ recession

UK swings to economic growth in January 2024
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Japan avoids technical recession

Japan GDP

According to the revised official data, the Japan’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to the same period in the previous year.

According to this revision, the economy avoided a technical recession, which is usually defined as two successive quarters of negative growth.

On Monday 11th March 2024, Japan’s Cabinet Office released figures that indicated a 0.3% decline in private consumption for the quarter. Private consumption accounts for about 60% of the economy.

Nevertheless, the updated figures fell short of expectations, as some economists had predicted a higher revision in Q4.

Nikkei 225 pulls back from recent highs

Nikkei 225 pulls back from recent highs
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Powell says the Fed is not ready to start cutting interest rates yet

U.S. interest rates

In his Capitol Hill testimony on 6th March 2024, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that was not yet time to begin cutting interest rates.

To fight inflation, which reached a rate of 9% in the summer of 2022, the central bank has significantly increased interest rates in recent times. However, prices are still stubborn, especially for things like housing and groceries.

Due to the robust economic performance in early 2024, the expected reduction in interest rates has been postponed. Instead of taking place this month, the rate cuts are now more probable in May or June 2024.

Powell reportedly said: ‘The Committee does not expect that it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.’

He reiterated the pledge to lower inflation to the 2% target and keep long-term inflation expectations stable.

UPDATE

On Thursday 7th March 2024 Powell also said: the Fed is ‘not far’ from the point of cutting interest rates

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U.S. national debt is piling up

U.S. debt pile

The U.S. national debt has been growing more quickly in recent months, increasing about $1 trillion nearly every 100 days.

U.S. debt permanently crossed over $34 trillion on 4th January 2024 according to data from the U.S. Department of the Treasury.

It reached $33 trillion on 15th September 2023, and $32 trillion on 15th June 2023. Before that, the $1 trillion move higher from $31 trillion took about eight months.

The U.S. national debt is the total amount of money that the federal government owes to its creditors. That can include, individuals, other countries and corporation. It is composed of two main components: federal debt held by the public and federal governmental debt.

The national debt has grown over time due to various factors, such as recessions, defense spending, and tax cuts. The debt-to-GDP ratio gives insight into whether the US has the ability to cover all of its debt. It also shows how it affects economic growth. 

U.S. national debt pile is growing

U.S. Debt
U.S. national debt is piling up

The national debt increased by 13.3% under President Biden. Up from $27.77 trillion as of 1st March 2020 to $31.46 trillion as of 1st March 2023. The debt also grew by $1.5 trillion, or 5.6%, between the end of 2020 and the end of 2021.

The gross domestic product (GDP) measures the annual economic output of the entire country. The national debt exceeds this amount, which is very high.

As of the end of February 2024, the U.S. debt is almost $34.4 billion. This is the money that the federal government has to borrow to pay for its operating expenses.

The World Bank found that if the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeded 77% for an extended period, it slowed economic growth.

U.S. national debt