From Calm to Chaos and Back Again. A Lighthearted Look at Daily Financial News and Events Moving Global Markets
This is a simple yet beautiful and profound quote.
It reminds us of the enduring strength and resilience of nature. The mountain, despite the fierce winds, stands unwavering and unyielding.
Bitcoin halving, which happens roughly every four years, cuts the rate of new Bitcoin creation by half. This event is tied to the method of recording and generating Bitcoins. Transactions are logged on a blockchain, a ledger accessible to all.
Miners compile transactions into blocks and connect them by resolving cryptographic challenges, earning new bitcoins as their reward.
Satoshi Nakamoto, the enigmatic creator of Bitcoin, designed the cryptocurrency to have a maximum circulation of 21 million coins. To ensure this, the Bitcoin protocol halves the reward given to miners every 210,000 blocks, an event that occurs approximately every four years.
The latest Bitcoin halving took place in the early hours of Saturday 20th April 2024, reducing the reward for adding a new block of transactions to the blockchain from 6.25 Bitcoins to 3.125. Bitcoin’s halving will persist until the total supply approaches the 21 million cap, anticipated around the year 2140.
The halving of Bitcoin reduces the number of new coins entering circulation, which, in theory, could drive up the price if demand remains constant.
According to economic principles, a stable demand coupled with a reduced supply should lead to a price increase.
Analysis of the three previous halvings (in 2012, 2016, and 2020) indicates an average price surge of 16% in the 60 days post-halving.
Typically, investors see the highest price increase approximately 500 days following a halving event.
Despite a recent drop from its peak, Bitcoin holds a high-level interest for crypto investors, even with its volatile behaviour. It has posted a 40% increase in 2024 compared to the same period last year.
In summary, the halving of Bitcoin reduces the availability of new coins, which could lead to an increase in value. However, the complete effects may only become apparent gradually over time.
Britain’s Metropolitan Police announced on Thursday 18th April 2024 that the ‘LabHost‘ website had been utilised by 2,000 criminals to pilfer personal details from users.
The police have reportedly identified approximately 70,000 UK individuals whose details were compromised via LabHost’s websites. The websites of LabHost have been disrupted and now displays a notice indicating that the services have been seized by law enforcement.
They have arrested 37 people worldwide and are contacting victims affected by the scam.
Officers say younger people who grew up with the internet were the most likely to fall for the ‘phishing’ scam.
‘Phishing’ is a type of social engineering attack where perpetrators trick individuals into disclosing sensitive information or downloading malware. This often entails the use of deceptive emails or messages that mimic reputable entities, luring users to input their login details on counterfeit websites.
See Wikipedia definition.
The technology enabled scammers without technical expertise to inundate victims with deceptive messages aimed at eliciting online payments.
Authorities focused on the gang’s website, LabHost, which facilitated the despatch of these messages and steered victims towards counterfeit websites. These sites mimicked authentic online payment or shopping platforms.
This operation allowed the perpetrators to pilfer personal identity details, including 480,000 card numbers and 64,000 PIN codes. It was referred to as ‘fullz data‘ in criminal circles, according to the police.
The exact amount of money stolen remains unknown. However, detectives estimate that the LabHost site generated close to £1 million ($1.25 million) in profits.
The assistant is reportedly designed to respond to queries, craft animations, and produce ‘high-quality’ images, according to Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg in a recent video posting.
Zuckerberg also noted that the company has integrated ‘real-time knowledge’ from Google and Microsoft’s Bing to enhance the assistant’s responses.
The development of Meta AI is based on the company’s most advanced large language model, Meta Llama 3, which was unveiled on the same day – Thursday 18th April 2024.
Established in the 1990s, Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, the largest in the world, invests the surplus revenue from the nation’s oil and gas sector. The fund has invested in over 8,800 companies across more than 70 countries to date.
Amid this volatility, the European Union’s securities watchdog, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), has sounded a cautionary note.
ESMA’s latest report highlights a considerable concern: the high level of concentration in crypto trading. A handful of exchanges, led by Binance, dominate the market. In fact, Binance alone accounts for more than half of all crypto trading activity. While this concentration might seem advantageous from an efficiency standpoint—thanks to economies of scale—it raises significant questions.
Imagine a scenario: Binance, Coinbase or any crypto platform for that matter experiences a catastrophic failure or malfunction. The repercussions would reverberate far beyond its platform.
The entire crypto ecosystem would feel the impact. Investors, traders, and enthusiasts would face disruptions, financial losses, and uncertainty. The interconnectedness of the crypto world amplifies the stakes.
ESMA’s concerns centre on systemic risk. When a single entity dominates a market, vulnerabilities emerge. What if Binance falters due to technical glitches, cyberattacks, or regulatory crackdowns? The fallout could destabilise other exchanges, trigger panic selling, and erode investor confidence. The crypto market, already prone to wild swings, would face heightened turbulence.
ESMA’s report underscores the need for vigilance. Regulatory bodies must strike a delicate balance: promoting innovation while safeguarding stability. Diversification across exchanges, robust risk management practices, and stress testing are essential. Additionally, fostering competition and encouraging new players can dilute concentration risk.
Crypto enthusiasts should heed ESMA’s warning. While the allure of rapid gains remains strong, prudent risk assessment is crucial. Investors must diversify their holdings, stay informed, and choose exchanges wisely. As the crypto landscape evolves, collaboration between regulators, industry players, and investors will shape its future.
In this high-stakes game, the EU watchdog’s message is clear: Tread carefully as you navigate the digital frontier.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult professionals before making investment decisions
Remember to always do your own careful research or employ regulated financial advice.
On a linear scale, the size of a dust speck is nowhere near the midpoint between an atom and Earth. However, if we consider a logarithmic scale, which compares things in terms of orders of magnitude rather than absolute size, the idea becomes more meaningful.
While 30 grams is heavier than what we’d typically consider a speck of dust, it’s not too far off when we’re looking at the vast difference in scale between an atom and the Earth.
So, proportionally speaking, a speck of dust’s mass is closer to the midpoint on a logarithmic scale, even though it’s not exactly halfway.
It’s a way to visualize and understand the immense range of scales in our universe, from the very small to the very large. It’s not meant to be a precise measurement but rather an illustration of the concept of scale.
Unprecedented demand for AI chips is being led by the proliferation of large language models such as ChatGPT and Chinese equivalents.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) on Thursday 17th April 2024 beat revenue and profit expectations in the Q1. Strong demand for advanced microchips, especially those used in AI tech.
TSMC announced that its net revenue has increased by 16.5% from the previous year to NT$592.64 billion, and its net income has risen by 8.9% to NT$225.49 billion. The company has forecasted its revenue for the first quarter to be in the range of $18 billion to $18.8 billion.
As the world’s largest producer of advanced processors, TSMC serves high-profile clients including Nvidia and Apple.
According to the latest World Economic Outlook released by the IMF, Russia’s economy is projected to expand by 3.2% in 2024.
This growth outpaces the anticipated growth rates for the U.S. at 2.7%, the U.K. at 0.5%, Germany at 0.2%, and France at 0.7%.
The forecast may be galling for Western countries that have endeavoured to economically isolate, restrict and punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Russia has demonstrated that Western sanctions on its industries have made it more self-sufficient and that private consumption and domestic investment remain resilient.
Oil and commodity exports to nations such as India and China, (two of the largest countries in the world by population) – as well as alleged sanction evasion and high oil prices, have allowed Russia to maintain strong oil export incomes streams.
Outside of Russia, the IMF has revised its forecasts for Europe and the UK, projecting a growth of 0.5% for this year. This positions the UK as the second-lowest performer within the G7 group of advanced economies, trailing behind Germany.
The G7 also includes France, Italy, Japan, Canada and the U.S.
However, UK growth is expected to improve to 1.5% in 2025, placing the UK in the top three best G7 performers, according to the IMF.
The IMF also reported said that interest rates in the UK will remain higher than other advanced nations, close to 4% until 2029.
Modernising the Bank of England’s forecasting system has become a critical necessity. A recent independent review has cast a spotlight on the ‘serious deficiencies’ within its economic forecasting system, calling for an urgent modernisation.
What have they all been doing for all these years to not have updated their systems?
The review, led by Dr. Ben Bernanke, a former chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, paints a picture of an institution grappling with outdated systems and under-investment in critical infrastructure. The Bank’s staff, the report suggests, are hindered by software that is not just out-of-date but also complicates the already intricate task of economic forecasting.
This revelation comes at a time when accurate economic forecasting is more vital than ever. The world is still reeling from the effects of the pandemic, the 2008/2009 financial crisis and the UK faces unique challenges post-Brexit. The Bank’s ability to predict economic trends accurately is paramount in crafting policies that safeguard the nation’s financial health.
The deficiencies highlighted are not just a matter of outdated software; they reflect a deeper need for a paradigm shift in how economic data is handled and analysed. The report recommends a complete overhaul of the system, emphasizing the need for automation of tasks that are currently performed manually.
Governor Andrew Bailey’s reportedly responded to the review by acknowledging the gravity of the situation, stating that updating the Bank’s systems is a ‘high priority’. This commitment to modernisation is a step in the right direction, but it should be followed by swift and decisive action, surely.
The Bank of England’s forecasting system is more than a tool; it is the compass by which the nation navigates its economic future. Modernising this system is not just a recommendation; it is an imperative. As the UK charts its course in a rapidly changing global economy, the reliability and sophistication of its economic forecasting are not just beneficial but essential for continued prosperity.
In conclusion, the Bank of England’s economic forecasting system is at a crossroads. The call to modernise is clear, and the path forward must be paved with innovation, investment, and a steadfast commitment to excellence in economic stewardship.
The future of the UK’s economy depends on it.
The relentless downpours, likely exacerbated by climate change, are now threatening the very foundation of UK food production.
UK farmers are facing the repercussions of extreme weather events. Fields that would normally be abundant with crops are currently waterlogged, making them barren. Livestock are also suffering, unable to graze in the inundated fields, leading to a shortage of feed. The circumstances are critical, prompting the National Farmers Union (NFU) to raise the alarm.
The NFU emphasizes that climate change-induced flooding imperils food security. Rachel Hallos, NFU vice president, warns that these extreme conditions could become the norm. Urgent action is needed to safeguard our agricultural systems.
A recent report from a mixed dairy, beef, and arable farmer in Gloucester whose land lies in the floodplain reportedly said that floods occurred every six years, but now they occur with alarming frequency. Cattle, unable to graze, face dwindling feed supplies. Livelihoods hang in the balance.
The farmer went on to say, ‘climate change affects us all. It threatens our food supply and prices. We must think about resilience and feeding the world amidst a changing climate.’
Extreme flooding transcends a natural disaster; it poses a threat to our very sustenance. In the face of such challenges in the UK, it is imperative that farmers, policymakers, and communities collaborate.
Prompt action is essential to safeguard our food security and foster resilience for the future.
Building and farming on low-lying land, often on floodplains, is likely a big part of the problem, along with the potential effects of the ever-changing climate and weather patterns.
Low lying land has always flooded – isn’t it natures safety valve? We cohabit with nature and low-lying land, as good as it is for farming (and building), will always flood – as it has for thousands of years.
But we do need to do more to protect our food production in the UK.
But a higher-than-expected reading creates more concern as investors push back bets on the timing of the first Bank of England (BoE) rate cut.
Economists expected 3.1% as inflation has been falling gradually since it peaked at 11.1% in late 2022.
Food prices provided the biggest downward drag on the headline rate, the ONS said, while motor fuels pushed it higher.
The core inflation rate, excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, was reported at 4.2%, slightly above the forecasted 4.1%. Services inflation, closely monitored by U.K. monetary policymakers, decreased from 6.1% to 6%, still surpassing the expectations of economists and the Bank of England (BoE).
The March core inflation figure, remaining above 4%, is expected to fuel speculation that inflation is more persistent than recent projections indicated, potentially delaying the anticipated timing of initial interest rate reductions.
The unemployment rate has seen a slight uptick to 4.2%, a rise from the previous 3.9%. This increase, which is more than anticipated, suggests a softening in the labour market.
Conversely, wage growth appears to be resilient in the face of rising unemployment. Although core wage growth has decelerated, it remains in the region of 6%. This could indicate that employers are maintaining competitive wages to attract and retain skilled workers, even amidst a slowing labour market.
The ONS said employment rate dipped to 74.5% between December and February and the percentage of 16 to 64 year-olds defined as economically inactive rose from 21.8% to 22.2%, which equates to 9.4 million people.
In February 2024, the average weekly earnings were estimated at £677 for total earnings and £633 for regular earnings. This equates to an annual growth in regular earnings (excluding bonuses) of 6.0%, and annual growth in employees’ average total earnings (including bonuses) of 5.6%.
However, when adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH), the real terms growth for regular pay was 1.9%, and for total pay was 1.6%. This implies that while nominal wages are increasing, the real purchasing power of these wages may not be keeping up with inflation.
The Bank of England will likely approach this data with caution. The combination of increasing unemployment and slowing wage growth could be indicative of a weakening economy, potentially prompting the Bank to contemplate rate cuts.
The response of the Bank of England to these trends will be pivotal in the forthcoming months.
In summary, the UK labour market is exhibiting signs of cooling with an increase in unemployment and a slowdown in wage growth. However, wages continue to grow at a relatively high rate. The real impact on workers will hinge on how these wage increases stack up against inflation.
As of December, Tesla had a total of 140,473 employees worldwide.
This decision is believed to be a response to the obstacles Tesla is encountering with slowing growth and operational effectiveness and cheaper competition.
In an internal memo, billionaire owner Elon Musk addressed the layoffs, acknowledging that it was a difficult decision but necessary for the company’s future. He emphasized the need to streamline operations and prepare for the next phase of growth.
The layoffs have already begun and also include some key executives.
Analysts offer diverse interpretations of the layoffs. Some perceive them as indicative of cost pressures stemming from Tesla’s investments in new models and artificial intelligence (AI).
The company’s delay in updating its aging vehicle lineup, coupled with high interest rates, has weakened consumer demand. Moreover, the influx of affordable electric vehicles, especially from China, such as BYD, has intensified the competition.
While the layoffs indicate challenges, they also highlight Tesla’s dedication to adaptability and efficiency. As the electric vehicle (EV) industry progresses, Tesla strives to stay lean, innovative, and strategically positioned for ongoing growth. The company is scheduled to announce its quarterly earnings later this month, which analysts will scrutinize in the context of the recent workforce reductions.
In summary, Tesla’s layoffs are indicative of the intricate dynamics within the automotive sector, where innovation, cost control, and market forces converge.
The company’s capacity to steer through these complexities will determine its future prosperity.
Beijing’s growth target for 2024 is around 5%.
China’s growth was driven in part by external demand, as export volume grew by 14% year on year.
Industrial output for March grew 4.5% year on year, missing expectations of 6%.
Retail sales grew 3.1% year on year, lower than expectations of 4.6%.
Muhammad Ali – (Cassius Clay) 1942 – 2016
He was an American professional boxer, activist, spokesperson for civil rights and entertainer. Nicknamed “the Greatest“, he is regarded as one of the most significant sports figures of the 20th century and is often regarded as the greatest heavyweight boxer of all time.
Technical analysis indicates that the risk trends towards the upside, with indicators showing overbought conditions and prices rising above moving averages.
However, it’s crucial to remember that markets are subject to change and can be affected by various factors, including geopolitical risks and economic data.
Recent figures indicate that the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) increased less than anticipated, which may influence monetary policy decisions and, as a result, the price of gold. Furthermore, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) choice to keep its monetary policy unchanged could lead to a rate reduction next summer, potentially affecting gold prices as well.
Although the present technical perspective suggests a possible continued rise, market fluctuations can occur due to unexpected events or changes in investor sentiment. Consequently, while gold may not face an immediate decline, it is advisable for investors to remain informed and take into account both technical and fundamental aspects when evaluating market trends.
This measure tracks services inflation, excluding food, energy, and housing, which has recently surged, rising 4.8% year-over-year in March 2024 and over 8% on a three-month annualised basis.
The situation is further complicated as some of the most persistent elements of services inflation include essential household expenses such as car and housing insurance, along with property taxes. Wall Street was unsettled by a recent consumer price index report that exceeded expectations, yet the focus is on the ‘supercore’ inflation reading within the data.
Economists also analysed the core CPI, which omits the volatile prices of food and energy, to discern the true inflation trend. The ‘supercore’ gauge goes a step further by also removing shelter and rent costs from its services calculation.
Federal Reserve officials find this measure particularly useful in the current environment, viewing the spike in housing inflation as a transient issue rather than a reliable indicator of underlying price trends.
Supercore inflation accelerated to a 4.8% pace year over year in March 2024, the highest in 11 months.
Adding complexity to the situation is the declining consumer savings rate coupled with rising borrowing costs, which may compel the central bank to maintain a restrictive monetary policy “until something breaks,” according to Fitzpatrick.
Analysts warn that the Federal Reserve may struggle to reduce inflation through additional rate hikes, as the prevailing factors are more persistent and less responsive to stringent monetary policy.
On Wednesday 10th April 2024 the CPI data announcement pushed the markets down and on Thursday 11th the markets recovered after the PPI data was better than expected.
PPI increased by 0.6% in February 2024. Expectations persist for June rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
The economy grew by 0.1%, figures show, boosted by production and manufacturing in areas such as the car sector. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that construction was dampened by wet weather.
The official ONS statistics also revised its previous estimate for January 2024 from 0.2% growth up to 0.3%.
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt reportedly suggested that the new figures were a “welcome sign that the economy is turning a corner”. “We can build on this progress if we stick to our plan,” he added.
That’s good then Jeremy – well done you, nice plan!
The company’s shares have fallen 10% from their recent all-time high, which was over $950. On Tuesday, 9th April 2024, the stock closed at $853.54, but it saw a slight recovery on Wednesday 10th April 2024, to $870.39.
On Tuesday, 9th April 2024, Intel, a competitor in the chipmaking industry, introduced a new AI chip named Gaudi 3. This chip is designed to drive large language models and stands as a contender against Nvidia’s most sophisticated chips.
U.S. inflation data coming in higher than expected along with a climb in treasuries has led to doubts of a Fed rate cut anytime soon.
These concerns combined together, pushed Nvidia and some other tech stocks lower.
The core CPI experienced a 0.4% rise on a monthly basis and a 3.8% increase from the previous year, both exceeding expectations. U.S. stocks also dropped on the announcement.
Recent monthly readings have likely diminished any residual expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut as early as May, according to some analysts.
Markets remain hopeful for a rate cut this summer; however, the Federal Reserve is seeking consistent signs of disinflation in the upcoming months before deciding.
Treasury yields have risen as stocks declined following the headline news.
Firms engaged in AI development, such as semiconductor producers crucial to AI technology and cloud service providers offering the necessary computing infrastructure, have experienced significant returns.
The stock market is abuzz with excitement over artificial intelligence (AI). With technology stocks on the rise, some investors are questioning whether this signifies an AI bubble that could eventually pop.
In recent months, a select group of large U.S. companies has spearheaded advancements. These pioneers include semiconductor manufacturers critical for AI technology and cloud service providers equipped to commercialise it. The financial returns have been remarkable.
Despite the rally, experts argue that we’re not in a traditional bubble.
Although tech stock valuations are high compared to historical standards, this doesn’t automatically indicate a bubble. The present price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the U.S. tech sector is indeed high, but context is key. The top seven US companies at the forefront of the generative AI industry have an average P/E ratio of 25.
The AI market has not reached bubble status as of now, but careful monitoring is essential. Staying vigilant about valuations, market dominance, and growth projections is important as we venture through this dynamic technological terrain, distinguishing genuine potential from mere speculation.
AI is here to stay, and this is just the beginning of a new ever powerful revolution.
Albert Schweitzer (1875-1965) was a German-born philosopher, theologian, physician, musician, and missionary in Africa.
His remarkable contributions spanned many different fields of interest.
As the world’s largest economy continues to surge, questions arise about the Federal Reserve’s next move regarding interest rates.
The unemployment rate fell to 3.8%, indicating strong job growth in several sectors such as health care, construction, and government. While economists had predicted job gains of approximately 200,000, the actual numbers have easily exceeded those expectations.
The labour market’s surprising resilience has caught analysts off guard, leading to speculation about the timing of interest rate cuts.
The Federal Reserve has held interest rates in a range of 5.25%-5.5%, the highest level in over two decades. Initially, the Fed raised rates sharply in 2022 to curb inflationary pressures. However, the subsequent cooling of price inflation (down to 3.2% in February) without a significant spike in unemployment has complicated matters. The central bank now faces a delicate balancing act.
The significant increase of 303,000 in non-farm payrolls for March 2024 reinforces the Federal Reserve’s stance that the robustness of the economy permits a gradual approach to interest rate reductions.
The Fed had been expected to initiate rate cuts this year to mitigate the impact of high borrowing costs. However, the stronger-than-anticipated economic performance suggests that rate cuts may not occur until the second half of this year.
U.S. government spending in areas like high-tech manufacturing and infrastructure has bolstered the labor market. Additionally, an influx of more than three million immigrants last year has expanded the workforce, potentially keeping wage pressures in check. In March, average hourly pay rose by 4.1% year-on-year, consistent with expectations and near a three-year low.
President Joe Biden hailed the latest job figures as a “milestone in America’s comeback.” However, some market analysts argue that the strong jobs growth could complicate efforts to return inflation to the Fed’s 2% target. Some analysts even speculate that rate cuts may not materialize until 2025.
Higher U.S. interest rates have ripple effects worldwide, enticing investors to shift capital toward America. While the Fed’s in-tray still has some warnings, the delay in rate cuts reflects the economy’s underlying strength.
The U.S. jobs boom presents a conundrum for policymakers. Balancing economic vitality with inflation control remains a delicate task, and the Fed’s decisions will reverberate far beyond its borders.
Artificial intelligence (AI) is not only a technology that is transforming the world, but also a culture that is inspiring the next generation of young innovators.
The Generation AI is a term that refers to the children and teenagers who are growing up with AI as a natural part of their lives, and who are using it to express their creativity, solve problems, and pursue their passions.
Generation AI is different from the previous generations in many ways. They are more diverse, more connected, more curious, and more entrepreneurial. GEN AI are also more aware of the social and ethical implications of AI, and more eager to use it for good. They are not just passive consumers of AI, but active creators and collaborators.
The Generation AI is already making an impact in a variety of domains and industries.
Generation AI is learning with and from AI, using it to enhance their learning experiences, personalise their curricula, and access global resources. They are also teaching AI, using it to share their knowledge, mentor their peers, and build their portfolios. For example, CodeGPT is a platform that allows students to learn coding with AI, and to create their own AI projects.
The Generation AI is improving their health and well-being with AI, using it to monitor their fitness, nutrition, and mental health, and to access reliable and personalized health information and services. They are also contributing to the health of others, using AI to support health research, diagnosis, and treatment. For example, Cureskin is an app that uses AI to detect and treat skin conditions.
The Generation AI is enjoying and creating entertainment with AI, using it to discover and consume content that suits their tastes, preferences, and moods, and to generate their own content, such as music, art, games, and stories. They are also engaging and interacting with AI, using it to play, chat, and socialise with others.
For example, OpenART, Microsoft Copilot, Stable Diffusion or PopAI and OpenAI’s ChatGPT are just a small selection of generative AI systems that can create realistic and diverse images from text descriptions. The Generation AI is not only the future of AI, but also the future of humanity.
They are the ones who will shape the direction and impact of AI, and who will benefit from its opportunities and challenges. They are the ones who will unleash the full potential of AI, and who will make the world a better place a discerned use of AI.
Note: apps mentioned in this article are not recommendations. They are just for reference only.