Observe. Think. Chat. Do. Trade. Repeat…
This expected decision follows a period of sluggish economic growth in the eurozone and a decrease in inflation, which approached the central bank’s 2% target in August.
The EU interest rate is now 3.5%.
This classification will ensure they receive additional government support during major incidents like cyber-attacks, IT outages, or severe weather, to reduce disruption.
Data centres, large warehouses filled with extensive computer banks, are the backbone of services like AI applications, data processing, and streaming. Despite facing criticism for their energy and water usage, the new Labour government supports the industry, with Technology Secretary Peter Kyle referring to data centres as ‘the engines of modern life.’
Currently, the UK recognises 13 sectors as critical national infrastructure, a list last revised nine years ago with the addition of space and defence.
British Technology Minister Peter Kyle announced on Thursday 12th September 2024 that UK data centres will be designated as ‘Critical National Infrastructure’ (CNI). This status, typically reserved for essential national sectors like nuclear power, provides data centre operators with a direct communication channel to the government for threat preparation and response.
Furthermore, the government has expressed support for a proposed £3.75 billion data centre by UK company DC01UK in Hertfordshire, England, which is projected to be the largest in Europe upon completion.
“AI is expected to become a crucial component of economic and military power in the near future,” Stanford University’s Artificial Intelligence Index Report 2023 stated.
Both countries are significantly investing in AI research and development, striving to achieve a leading role in this revolutionary sector. This post looks at the major figures in China’s AI scene, their progress, and their comparison with their American counterparts.
China’s AI aspirations are propelled by a number of significant technology firms, each forging their own AI models and applications.
Baidu: Often referred to as the ‘Google of China,’ Baidu leads in AI development. Its premier AI model, ERNIE (Enhanced Representation through Knowledge Integration), fuels the Ernie Bot, a chatbot aimed to compete with OpenAI’s ChatGPT. Baidu asserts that ERNIE 4.0 matches GPT-4’s capabilities, demonstrating sophisticated understanding and reasoning abilities.
Alibaba: Alibaba’s AI model, Tongyi Qianwen (commonly known as Qwen), is a comprehensive set of foundational models adept at a range of tasks, from generating content to solving mathematical problems. Select versions of Qwen are open-source, enabling developers to utilize and modify them for various uses. Alibaba has announced that Qwen models are in use by over 90,000 enterprise clients.
Tencent: The Hunyuan model from Tencent is a prominent component of China’s AI landscape. Offered through Tencent’s cloud computing division, Hunyuan is tailored to facilitate a broad spectrum of applications, encompassing natural language processing and computer vision.
Huawei: In spite of considerable obstacles stemming from U.S. sanctions, Huawei persists in AI innovation. The firm has created its own AI processors, like the Kunlun series, to diminish dependence on international technology. Huawei’s AI features are incorporated into a diverse array of products, including smartphones and cloud solutions.
The U.S. continues to be a dominant force in AI, with leading companies such as OpenAI, Microsoft, Google, Anthropic and Meta spearheading advancements.
Generative AI: U.S. firms have advanced significantly in generative AI, with OpenAI’s GPT-4 and Google’s Gemini at the forefront. These models excel in creating text, images, and videos from user inputs. Although Chinese models like ERNIE and Qwen are strong contenders, the U.S. maintains a slight lead in capabilities and market penetration.
Semiconductor Design: The U.S. leads the semiconductor design industry, vital for AI progress. U.S. companies command an 85% global market share in chip design, crucial for AI model training and system operation. China’s dependence on imported semiconductors is a notable obstacle, but there are ongoing efforts to create homegrown solutions.
Research and Innovation: Both nations boast strong AI research sectors, yet the U.S. edges out slightly in generating state-of-the-art AI products. U.S. tech giants frequently introduce AI breakthroughs to the market, with Chinese firms quickly gaining ground.
Government Support: The Chinese government ardently backs AI advancement, enacting strategies to spur innovation and lessen foreign tech reliance. Such support has spurred China’s AI industry’s rapid expansion, positioning it as a strong rival to the U.S.
The competition in AI development between China and the U.S. is escalating, as both countries achieve significant breakthroughs. Although the U.S. maintains a marginal lead in some respects, China’s swift advancement and state backing indicate that the disparity might keep closing. The quest for AI dominance by these nations is set to influence the worldwide technological and innovative landscape profoundly.
As of September 2024, it is estimated that China’s AI development is approximately nine months behind that of the U.S.
A politician in training – “OK! So, I’ve mastered the ‘smile’ – now what?”
This development likely now paves the way for a Federal Reserve interest rate reduction next week but maybe by only 0.25% and not the 0.50% some pundits have predicted.
The consumer price index, which measures a wide array of goods and services costs throughout the U.S. economy, rose by 0.2% for the month, matching the consensus, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This increase brought the year-on-year inflation rate to 2.5%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from July 2024 and slightly below the 2.6% prediction.
Nevertheless, the core CPI, which omits the more fluctuating food and energy prices, saw a 0.3% rise for the month, just above the 0.2% projection. The annual core inflation rate stood at 3.2%, consistent with expectations.
The case dates back to 2016, when the European Commission directed Ireland to reclaim up to 13 billion euros ($14.4 billion) in unpaid taxes from Apple.
The Commission had determined that Apple benefited from ‘illegal’ tax advantages in Ireland for twenty years.
Analysts had anticipated a modest growth of 0.2% for July. However, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell short of the expectations set by economists surveyed by Reuters, who had predicted a 0.2% increase. Additionally, the country experienced no GDP growth in June 2024.
In July 2024, Britain’s predominant services sector experienced a slight increase of 0.1%, while production and construction outputs declined by 0.8% and 0.4%, respectively.
The UK’s economic growth rose by 0.5% in the three months leading up to July 2024, which was marginally below the expectations of economists and the 0.6% growth seen in the second quarter ending in June.
The services sector received a boost from a summer filled with sports events, including the Euros and the Olympics, despite the downturn in production and construction outputs.
The absence of growth for another month poses a significant challenge for the new Labour government, which has prioritised economic stimulation.
Despite no growth in July 2024, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) noted that the services sector showed strength over the last three months as a whole. Growth was primarily driven by computer programmers and the health sector, which bounced back from June’s strike action.
However, there was a decline in output from the advertising, architecture, and engineering sectors, according to the ONS. Car and machinery firms experienced a particularly challenging month.
While the ONS tracks gross domestic product (GDP) monthly, greater emphasis is placed on the three-month trend. Monthly figures, being preliminary estimates, are often subject to minor revisions as more data becomes available.
REA Group, which is 62% owned by Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp, reportedly did not provide a reason for Rightmove’s refusal of the offer.
Analysts have noted that Britain’s housing market is three times larger than Australia’s. A successful deal would have accelerated REA’s expansion into profitable international markets.
The ruling stems from a 2017 antitrust investigation by the European Commission, the executive arm of the European Union.
The Commission reportedly found that Google had unfairly favoured its own shopping comparison service, to the detriment of rival services.
A trial scheduled to begin on Monday 9th September 2024 will scrutinise the Department of Justice’s (DoJ) claims that Alphabet, the parent company of Google, is unlawfully sustaining a monopoly in the marketplace.
In the previous year, the firm amassed over $200 billion (£152 billion) through the placement and sale of online advertisements.
Alphabet attributes its success to the ‘effectiveness’ of its business. Conversely, prosecutors contend that the company has leveraged its market control to stifle competition.
The legal action, launched by the Department of Justice (DoJ) and several states in 2023, charges Google with dominating the digital advertising market and employing its influence to obstruct innovation and competition.
Google asserts that it is simply one of numerous companies that arrange digital advertisement placements for consumers.
The corporation argues that the digital advertising industry is increasingly competitive, citing the growing advertising revenues of entities like Apple, Amazon, and TikTok as proof, as mentioned in a blog post responding to the DoJ’s lawsuit in 2023.
The contentions will be laid out before the U.S. District Judge who is expected to deliver a verdict.
This trial comes on the heels of a notable decision in a separate antitrust lawsuit against Google by the Justice Department last month. Judge Amit Mehta ruled that Google had illegally stifled competition in its online search services.
He reportedly stated that, “Google is a monopolist and has acted as such to maintain its monopoly.”
Exports expanded by 8.7% in U.S. dollar terms compared to the previous year, while imports saw a marginal increase of 0.5%.
The export volume of China’s rare earths decreased by 1% from the previous year, imports experienced a more significant drop of 12%.
China’s exports to its major trading partners, the U.S., European Union and Association of Southeast Asian Nations all reportedly rose in August from a year ago.
Exports to the EU grew the most, up by 13% according to preliminary calculations.
The consumer price index was projected to rise by 0.7% year-on-year in August 2024, based on a poll. However, the producer price index experienced a decline of 1.8% year-on-year in August, exceeding the analysts’ forecast of a 1.4% decrease.
China’s inflation rate increased by 0.6% year-on-year, which was below the 0.7% economists had anticipated according to a Reuters poll. Month-on-month, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw a rise of 0.4%, also falling short of the expected 0.5%.
Although there are links between the two, they do not always correlate. The intricacies of this relationship and its implications for investors and the general public are multifaceted.
The stock market is largely a reflection of investor sentiment and their expectations for future economic performance. When investors feel optimistic, stock prices generally increase. On the other hand, when they are pessimistic, stock prices are likely to decrease. Because the market is driven by sentiment, it can react to factors that don’t immediately affect the real economy, like geopolitical events, interest rate changes, or corporate earnings announcements.
The well-being of the U.S. economy is often assessed using various indicators such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, unemployment rates, consumer spending, and inflation. These metrics offer a broader perspective on the economic climate. For example, an expanding GDP coupled with low unemployment usually indicates a robust economy, despite any fluctuations in the stock market.
Occasionally, the stock market and the economy may move in different directions. For instance, during the COVID-19 pandemic, the stock market swiftly recovered from an initial downturn due to extraordinary fiscal and monetary stimulus measures. In contrast, the wider economy’s recovery was more protracted, marked by persistent high unemployment and substantial disruptions across numerous industries.
Likewise, the stock market might fall even amidst positive economic indicators. This occurs when investors foresee impending difficulties, such as possible increases in interest rates or geopolitical conflicts, that could affect corporate earnings.
The stock market frequently responds to short-term factors and investor behaviours, such as speculation and market sentiment, leading to volatility that may not align with the underlying economic fundamentals. Conversely, economic indicators generally offer a more long-term perspective on the economy’s health.
Although the stock market’s performance can influence the economy via wealth effects and corporate investments, it is not the only indicator of economic vitality. The performance of the stock market is significant to many U.S. citizens, especially those with investments through retirement plans.
However, the real economy, as measured by employment, production, and consumption, often has a more direct impact on people’s daily lives.
In conclusion, although the stock market is linked to the U.S. economy, they do not always move in tandem. The stock market reflects investor sentiment and anticipations for the future, yet it may not fully represent the present economic conditions.
Hence, for a thorough assessment of economic health, it is crucial to evaluate various economic indicators in addition to the performance of the stock market.
These controls encompass quantum computers and their components, sophisticated chipmaking tools, semiconductor technologies, certain metal and metal alloy components and software, and high-bandwidth chips, which are vital for AI applications.
While the U.S. intensifies its measures to curb China’s expansion, there is noticeable hesitancy within the global industry.
The U.S. Department of Commerce issued new regulations on Friday, 6th September 2024, encompassing quantum computers and their components, sophisticated chipmaking tools, certain metal and metal alloy components and software, as well as high-bandwidth chips, which are vital for AI applications.
See report details here
In the U.S. recent data (Friday 30th August 2024) showed the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve’s favored measure of inflation, ticked up 0.2% last month, as expected. The data seems to back a smaller rate cut.
The question of whether the economy is weaker than headline data suggests and if the U.S. Federal Reserve should already be easing is complex.
The gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3% in Q2 of 2024, which is a positive indicator. However, the U.S. current-account deficit widened, and personal income and outlays show mixed signals with a slight increase in personal income but a higher increase in personal outlays.
Inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target but well below the pandemic-era peak. These factors suggest that while there are positive aspects to the U.S. economy, there are also challenges that may warrant caution from the Federal Reserve.
Is the market too focused on forecasting the size of any possible upcoming cut? “The question no one has asked yet is why is the policy rate is still at 5.5% when inflation is down to almost 2.5%? It would most likely be an error to do a ‘bigger’ rate cut in this kind of environment with all the uncertainty that the U.S. economy is facing.
Jobs data trends are also an important factor and play a major role in decision making. Company performance and future performance predictions are critical to help judge policy direction.
Decisions on monetary policy easing would be based on a comprehensive analysis of all economic indicators and trends.
If the FED go BIG on a rate cut some say it could be very dangerous and spook the markets.
The U.S. semiconductor powerhouse announced that the Snapdragon X Plus 8-core targets PCs priced from $700, aiming to broaden its chip reach to additional devices.
Moreover, Qualcomm has enjoyed backing from Microsoft, which is incorporating Snapdragon processors in its Copilot+ PCs.
Qualcomm says the company is also working on mixed reality smart glasses with Samsung and Google.
This demotion represents a new setback for Burberry, with its share price having plummeted over 53% this year.
Previous CEOs have endeavoured to refine the brand’s aesthetic. With the appointment of Joshua Schulman as the new chief executive in July 2024, a shift in strategy is now indicated.
Burberry is not alone in its waning fortunes. The luxury sector as a whole has suffered from a prolonged downturn in consumer spending amid inflationary pressures and broader economic uncertainty. Chinese luxury consumption has been especially hard hit.
In July, Hugo Boss cut its full-year guidance after reporting a fall in sales, notably in the U.K. and China, while Gucci owner Kering issued a weak forecast recognising a deceleration in China. LVMH revenue also fell in the second quarter on weaker sales.
Burberry’s FTSE relegation confirms a long fall from grace for the luxury fashion icon.
On Tuesday 3rd September 2024, around $279 billion of value was wiped off of Nvidia. That was the biggest one-day market capitalisation drop for a U.S. stock in HISTORY!
Nvidia shares continued sliding in post-market trading Tuesday, falling 2%, after Bloomberg reported that the company received a subpoena from the Department of Justice as part of an antitrust investigation.
Global semiconductor stocks and related sectors subsequently experienced a decline on Wednesday 4th September 2024, after Nvidia’s share price in the U.S. saw a significant plunge overnight.
Update: in a subsequent statement Nvidia reportedly said it didn’t receive antitrust subpoena from DOJ. This according to a report on CNBC.
Theodor Seuss Geisel 1904 – 1991 was an American children’s author and cartoonist. He is known for his work writing and illustrating more than 60 books under the pen name Dr. Seuss.
The S&P 500 fell by a little over 2%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average trimmed around 1.50%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.26%.
U.S. manufacturing activity continued to contract in August 2024, raising concerns about the strength of the U.S. economy again.
Nvidia‘s stock plummeted nearly 10%. The downturn also affected other semiconductor manufacturers in the U.S. and Asia. Intel’s shares fell by 8.8%, SK Hynix’s by over 7%, and Tokyo Electron’s by over 8.5%.
Furthermore, Nvidia‘s shares declined an additional 2% in extended trading amid news that the U.S. Department of Justice has begun an antitrust investigation into the company.
This bleak sentiment may have been influenced by market expectations. The Fed dithering about when to make an interest rate cut isn’t helping.
Historically speaking, September has been the worst month for the S&P 500. The index lost an average of 2.3% over the past 10 Septembers, according to FactSet data.
There are real reasons to feel concerned for the month. Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee warned investors to be cautious for the next eight weeks and thinks stocks could pull back by 7% to 10%.
Zeekr, supported by Geely, experienced a rise in deliveries to 18,015 for August, although this was a decrease from the 20206 deliveries reported in June 2024.
Li Auto, renowned for its range-extender vehicles, saw a decrease in deliveries to 48,122 in August, a drop from the July record of 51,000.
Black Myth: Wukong, an action-adventure game rooted in Chinese mythology, surpassed 10 million units sold just three days following its release on 20th August 2024. A week and a half later, it continued to hold the second spot in revenue rankings in the U.S., and remained the top-selling game worldwide, according to the Steam video game platform where it sells for around $60.
Hero Games co-published the game and was an early investor in its developer Game Science.
The game Black Myth: Wukong is an action RPG rooted in Chinese mythology. The story is based on Journey to the West, one of the Four Great Classical Novels of Chinese literature. You shall set out as the Destined One to venture into the challenges and marvels ahead, to uncover the obscured truth beneath the veil of a glorious legend from the past.
The core inflation rate, which excludes the volatile elements of energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, dropped to 2.8% in August from July’s 2.9%, aligning with predictions.
Market expectations have fully incorporated a 0.25% rate cut by the ECB in September 2024, following its initial rate reduction in June 2024, with anticipation of an additional 0.25% reduction before year-end.
This follows a slowdown in price increases in Germany, the largest economy in the eurozone, which cooled to an unexpected 2% for the month, according to the index of consumer prices.
This agreement reportedly grants the institute access to significant new AI models from each company before and after their public release.
Recently, several AI developers and researchers have voiced concerns regarding safety and ethics within the growing profit-driven AI industry.
The shares of the conglomerate, headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska, have surged over 28% in 2024, outperforming the S&P 500’s 18% increase. This major achievement came just two days before Buffett, often referred to as the ‘Oracle of Omaha,’ was due to celebrate his 94th birthday.
On Wednesday, the company’s shares rose by 0.8% to $696,502.02, surpassing the $1 trillion mark, as reported. The shares soared even further in the subsequent trading session.
The milestone serves as a testament to the firm’s financial robustness and the value of its franchise. It is particularly noteworthy given that Berkshire stands as one of the few remaining conglomerates today.
Buffett, serving as chairman and CEO, assumed command of Berkshire, a floundering textile enterprise, in the 1960s. He revolutionised the firm into a vast conglomerate covering insurance, railroads, retail, manufacturing, and energy sectors, boasting an unparalleled balance sheet and a formidable cash reserve.
Unlike the six other companies in the trillion-dollar club (Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta), Berkshire is known for its old-economy focus as the owner of: BNSF Railway, Geico Insurance and Dairy Queen. (Although its sizable Apple position has helped drive recent gains.)
As the artificial intelligence boom continues, Nvidia remains a major beneficiary. Despite a stock price dip, after trading hours, the stock has risen approximately 150% this year. The question remains whether Nvidia can sustain this growth trajectory.
Nvidia said it expects about $32.5 billion in current-quarter revenue, versus $31.7 billion expected by analysts, according to analysis That would be an increase of 80% from a year earlier.
Revenue continues to surge, rising 122% on an annual basis during the quarter, following three straight periods of year-on-year growth in excess of 200%.
Nvidia’s data centre business, which encompasses its AI processors, saw a 154% increase in revenue from the previous year, reaching $26.3 billion and representing 88% of the company’s total sales.
However, not all these sales were from AI chips. Nvidia reported that its networking products contributed $3.7 billion in revenue.
The company primarily serves a select group of cloud service providers and consumer internet firms, including Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Tesla. Nvidia’s chips, notably the H100 and H200, are integral to the majority of generative AI applications, like OpenAI‘s ChatGPT.
Nvidia also announced a $50 billion stock buyback.
Nvidia shares dropped close to 5% in after-hours pre-market trade (29th August 2024).
