Election UK style. “Take me to your leader.” “Err… we don’t have one!”
Election UK style. “Take me to your leader.” “Err… we don’t have one!”
Election UK style – “New rules please!”
Conservative Party HQ – “I have a plan!”
How about if we sell ‘slogan’ advertising space on the lectern. ‘I Have a plan‘ and ‘Change‘ spring to mind. A plan to do what and a change to what… exactly?
Banknotes with King Charles III enter circulation for the first time
Banknotes featuring a portrait of King Charles III entered circulation on Wednesday 5th June 2024.
Charles’s portrait will be featured on the front of the £5, £10, £20, and £50 banknotes, visible through the notes’ transparent security window. He is only the second monarch to appear on British banknotes, following Queen Elizabeth II.
Currently, there are more than 4.6 billion Bank of England notes in circulation, with a combined value of around £82 billion.
“Don’t walk in front of me… I may not follow. Don’t walk behind me… I may not lead. Walk beside me… just be my friend” – Albert Camus
Albert Camus 1913 – 1960
Albert Camus was a French philosopher, author, dramatist, journalist, world federalist, and political activist. He received the 1957 Nobel Prize in Literature at the age of 44, becoming the second youngest recipient in history.
See Wikipedia
Little know company Kneron launches latest AI chips – backed by Qualcomm
Kneron, a startup specializing in artificial intelligence chips, unveiled its latest products on Wednesday 4th June 2024.
The company aims to exploit the growing world-wide interest in AI and provide an alternative to industry heavyweights such as Nvidia and AMD.
The company, headquartered in Taiwan and supported by American semiconductor leader Qualcomm and major iPhone assembler Foxconn, introduced the KNEO 330, its second-generation ‘edge GPT’ server.
GPT, short for generative pre-trained transformer, is an AI algorithm trained on vast datasets capable of generating text and images, with OpenAI’s ChatGPT being the world leader right now.
Intel unveils new AI chips as it seeks to reclaim market share
Intel announced its new Xeon 6 processors at the Computex tech conference in Taiwan on Tuesday 4th June 2024.
This announcement coincides with the recent launches of new artificial intelligence chips by rivals Nvidia and AMD on Sunday and Monday 2nd and 3rd June 2024 – as they compete for dominance in the rapidly growing industry.
Intel is making efforts to catch up with Nvidia and AMD, having been relatively absent from the AI surge that led tech giants such as Meta, Microsoft, and Google to purchase a significant number of Nvidia chips.
This comes half a year after Intel’s release of its 5th Gen Intel Xeon processors for data centre workloads and a couple of months following the announcement of the Gaudi 3 processor for AI model training and deployment.
Intel also disclosed that the Gaudi 2 and Gaudi 3 AI accelerators are priced lower than those of its competitors.
Furthermore, Intel shared architectural details of its forthcoming Lunar Lake processors, aimed at expanding the AI PC category. These processors, slated for release in the third quarter, are set to rival Nvidia’s and AMD’s offerings tailored for AI PCs.
While Nvidia and AMD focus on chip design, Intel stands out by both designing and manufacturing its chips. Nevertheless, Intel’s foundry business has faced challenges, with its operating loss widening to $7 billion in 2023 compared to the previous year.
Cisco’s ThousandEyes has unveiled an AI product designed to predict and rectify internet outages
ThousandEyes, Cisco’s internet monitoring division, has introduced a new suite of AI-driven features known as Digital Experience Assurance, or DXA, on Tuesday 4th June 2024.
The firm asserts that this new AI technology will allow customers to not only monitor but also automatically address issues affecting network quality.
Describing itself as the ‘Google Maps’ of the internet, Cisco ThousandEyes offers a comprehensive, end-to-end perspective of every user and application across all networks.
Established 15 years prior, the company has been heavily investing in AI technology in recent years.
ThousandEyes is now implementing significant AI-centric modifications to its platform, which are designed to enhance its clients’ oversight of network quality and robustness.
Bad economic news can be good for stocks
Bad economic news appears to have had an interesting impact on the stock market recently.
Traditionally, negative economic data might be anticipated to result in falling stock prices; however, recent trends have diverged from this norm.
News trend
In the past two months, negative economic news has had a paradoxically positive effect on equities. Investors have responded well to poor economic indicators, partly due to the belief that these could lead the Federal Reserve to begin reducing interest rates.
Dollar and the stock market
In recent times, the S&P 500, a large-cap equity index, and the U.S. dollar have exhibited a nearly perfect correlation. As the dollar has seen a gradual decline, the stock market has conversely experienced a rise. Typically, investors flock to the security of cash, and consequently the dollar, in times of uncertainty, yet they also channel investments into stocks upon the arrival of favourable news.
Economic data
Despite the upbeat trend in the stock market, real economic data has frequently fallen short of Wall Street’s predictions. The Citi Economic Surprise Index, a gauge that compares data to expectations, has been on a downward trajectory. This suggests that expectations have been surpassing the actual economic conditions, signalling that the economic situation may not be as favorable as previously thought.
Dilemma for the Fed
The Federal Reserve methodically reviews economic indicators to influence their interest rate decisions. Typically, unfavorable economic reports might prompt the Fed to reduce rates, unless there’s an uptick in inflation. Escalating inflation generally nudges the Fed towards a tighter monetary policy.
Monthly data roll-out
Data concerning the U.S. labour market presented to the Fed and markets may create that ‘pivotal’ moment – it often does – markets move of Fed comments and ‘awaited’ news. Reports detailing job openings, private sector job creation, and the Bureau of Labour Statistics’ nonfarm payrolls will shed light on the economy’s condition.
If job growth remains within the ‘Goldilocks range’ (neither too strong nor too weak), it may preserve the fragile equilibrium where unfavourable economic news has paradoxically favoured stock prices, while preventing excessive gloom.
Conclusion
To summarize, although adverse economic news has lately been advantageous for stock markets, monitoring this precarious balance is crucial. Excessive pessimism could be a harbinger of impending difficulties, despite its current benefits.
Note about Citigroup Economic Surprise Index
The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index is the sum of the difference between the actual value of various economic data and their consensus forecast. If the index is greater than zero, it means that the overall economic performance is generally better than expected, and the S&P 500 has a high probability of strengthening, and vice versa.
Bitcoin miners rotate millions into AI – but why?
Bitcoin miners have been diversifying operations into artificial intelligence (AI) due to several key factors.
Since Bitcoin halving, miners have been searching for more lucrative income streams as AI and crypto industries collide.
Revenue shift
The revenue from crypto mining, especially Bitcoin, has significantly decreased in recent months. After the ‘Bitcoin halving’ event in April 2024, rewards earned by Bitcoin miners were cut by 50%. As a result, miners have been seeking alternative revenue streams.
AI boom
Following the unveiling of ChatGPT by OpenAI in November 2022, there has been a significant increase in the demand for AI computation and infrastructure. This surge has led to a flurry of investments in AI models and startups, presenting miners with new opportunities to transition into the AI sector.
Energy access
Bitcoin miners are progressively turning to ‘stranded energy site’s – these are locations with surplus or untapped energy for mining operations. At the same time, they are channelling investments into AI at more stable sites. This strategic move enables them to leverage the potentially higher returns from AI.
Core Scientific
Core Scientific, a Bitcoin mining company, has recently entered into a 12-year agreement with cloud provider CoreWeave to supply infrastructure for AI applications. This partnership is anticipated to generate in excess of $3.5 billion in revenue over the duration of the contract. CoreWeave, supported by Nvidia, offers rental of graphics processing units (GPUs) essential for AI model training.
In conclusion, Bitcoin miners are increasingly adopting AI to adjust to the evolving market dynamics and to uncover new revenue streams beyond conventional mining. The merging of AI and the cryptocurrency industry offers promising prospects for both fields.
“My new best friend… what makes you think I work from home?”
“My new best friend… what makes you think I work from home?”
AMD announces new chips amid intensifying AI competition
AMD announced new artificial intelligence chips on Monday 3rd June 2024, aiming to position itself as a leader in the market alongside competitors such as Nvidia and Intel.
“AI is our number one priority and we’re at the beginning of an incredibly exciting time for the industry as AI transforms virtually every business, improves our quality of life, and reshapes every part of the computing market,” chair and CEO Lisa Su reportedly commented during the Computex tech conference.
The company unveiled the Ryzen AI 300 series for next-generation AI laptops. The line is anticipated to compete directly with Intel’s upcoming Lunar Lake and Qualcomm’s Snapdragon X. And in partnership with Microsoft, these new AI chips will power laptops equipped with the tech giant’s AI chatbot Copilot.
AMD has unveiled the new Ryzen 9000 series for desktops, inferred as ‘the world’s fastest consumer PC processors’ for gaming and content creation.
The series is due for release in July 2024, following closely on the heels of AMD’s April announcement of new processors capable of running AI workloads – the Ryzen Pro 8040 for laptops and the Ryzen Pro 8000 for desktops.
AMD one year chart
Nvidia announces new AI chips
Nvidia has revealed its latest generation of AI chips, coming just months after the release of its preceding model.
This rapid succession underscores the intense competition within the AI chip market and Nvidia’s relentless effort to maintain its leading position.
CEO Jensen Huang has now committed to unveiling new AI chip technology annually, accelerating the company’s prior biannual pace. The latest AI chip architecture, named ‘Rubin,’ is set to follow the ‘Blackwell’ model announced in March 2024, which is currently in production and anticipated to be delivered to customers the latter part of 2024.
Huang’s unveiling of the Rubin has seemingly hastened Nvidia’s already rapid AI chip development.
Nvidia has committed to launching new AI chip designs annually, a cadence Huang reportedly referred to as a ‘one-year rhythm‘ during his Sunday 2nd June 2024 announcement. Previously, the company was committed to updating its chips every two years. But such is the speed and fierce competition of AI development, that original decision has become quickly out-dated.
The swift transition from Blackwell to Rubin, taking less than three months, highlights the intense competition in the AI chip market and Nvidia’s race to maintain its leading position.
AMD and Intel are two major competitors playing catch-up in the AI race.
Nvidia one year share chart
Euro zone inflation rises to 2.6% in May 2024
Eurozone inflation increased to 2.6% in May 2024, according to Eurostat’s announcement on Friday 31st May 2024.
Analysts had anticipated a 0.1% rise from the 2.4% headline figure reported in April 2024.
Core inflation, which omits the unstable effects of energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, rose to 2.9% from April’s 2.7%. Contrary to the flat reading projected by economists.
A deviation from the expected 0.25% cut at the ECB’s June 2024 meeting would significantly surprise the markets, given the strong signals from policymakers in recent weeks.
Quality investing advice from one of the best, if not the best investor the world has ever seen!
Warren Buffett, renowned as one of history’s most successful investors, has imparted invaluable insights that can help steer you on your investment path.
Rule No. 1 is never lose money. Rule No. 2 is never forget Rule No. 1
This straightforward statement has significant connotations. Although the aim of investing is to make a profit, it is just as important to avoid losses.
By reducing choices that put your portfolio at risk, you enhance the chance of earning profits. Consider it protecting your capital before pursuing returns. In contrast to those who gamble on the stock market, Buffett prioritizes careful risk management.
It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price
Rather than concentrating only on low-priced stocks, it’s wise to invest in outstanding companies with robust economic foundations and competitive edges. Although top-notch companies seldom seem inexpensive, their enduring profitability may warrant a fair premium. Notable firms that Buffett has backed include Apple, American Express, Coca-Cola.
Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble
Be ready to grasp opportunities as they come. Instead of a small thimble, arm yourself with a bucket to gather the metaphorical riches. That is, capitalize on favorable market conditions and make smart investments when suitable chances emerge.
Invest in yourself
Buffett advocates for self-improvement, highlighting the importance of effective communication, both written and verbal. Developing this skill can greatly enhance your value.
Diversify
Diversify your investments among various assets to mitigate risk. Look into index funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) – unit trusts, stocks and shares, gold and hold cash to achieve widespread diversification.
Start early
The effectiveness of compounding is maximized when you start investing early. Being consistently invested over time is more beneficial than attempting to predict market movements.
Automate
Establish automatic contributions to your investment accounts. Regular investments over time can result in significant growth.
The principles that capture the influence of fear and greed on investing were articulated by Warren Buffett.
Buffet advises: ‘Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy only when others are fearful.‘
Fear and Greed
Fear
When investors collectively succumb to fear from ongoing stock market declines, they often resort to selling their shares, which in turn exacerbates the fall in prices.
Greed
In bull markets, it’s common for investors to exhibit excessive greed, pursuing rapid wealth and speculative trends.
Buffett’s wisdom
Warren Buffett, often referred to as the ‘Oracle of Omaha’, is known for his disciplined, long-term approach to investing. He specializes in value investing, which involves purchasing companies that seem to be undervalued by the market.
The rule
When others exhibit greed (buying aggressively), it’s prudent to exercise caution. On the flip side, when others are fearful (selling in a panic), it may be an opportune time to be greedy (buying at reduced prices).
Application
Fearful times
In times when fear prevails in the market, prices might plummet as a result of panic selling. Buffett advises exercising caution in these situations.
Greedy times
When others display excessive optimism (greed), it presents an opportunity to acquire undervalued assets.
Successful investing requires maintaining balance, adhering to fundamental principles, and steering clear of emotional extremes.
Investing is a marathon, not a sprint; hence, patience, discipline, and ongoing education are crucial.
Remember… ALWAYS do your own careful research! Or better still, take professional financial advice. Actually – just do both!
RESEARCH! RESEARCH! RESEARCH!
Disclaimer: this article is for informative purposes only! Do not trade nor invest unless you FULLY understand what you are doing – even then it is wise to take qualified financial advice.
Possible read: Buffet – The Biography (Amazon listing – other good outlets available)
Election selection UK style. “That’s my umbrella, give it back!” – ” No it’s not, it’s mine – besides, you don’t even know how to use it!”
UK election defence device to help stop you getting… ‘drowned out’.
AI power hungry data centres go green in Singapore
Singapore is actively addressing the dual challenges of the increasing demand for artificial intelligence (AI) and the pressure on energy resources. The nation recently unveiled a green data centre roadmap to bolster its digital economy aspirations.
Growing AI Demand and Energy Strain
With the increasing demand for digital and AI computation, the requirement for data centre capacity has grown. This heightened demand is exerting pressure on national energy networks, calling for urgent attention.
Goals
The Green Data Centre plan is designed to deliver a minimum of 300 megawatts of extra capacity. Singapore’s strategy includes improving energy efficiency in all data centres, implementing energy-efficient IT equipment, and providing incentives or grants to promote resource efficiency.
Sustainability
Singapore acknowledges the substantial contribution of data centres to its ICT sector’s emissions, accounting for 82% of the sector’s emissions and 7% of the nation’s total electricity consumption. By prioritizing energy efficiency, renewable energy, and sustainability, Singapore strives to maintain its position as a premier digital hub while reducing its environmental impact.
International status
Singapore’s data centers capitalize on the nation’s global standing as a commercial and digital centre. The city-state ranks as the second-largest data center market in Southeast Asia and holds the sixth position in the Asia-Pacific region.
In conclusion, Singapore’s focus on green data centres demonstrates its pledge to sustainable development amidst increasing energy needs driven by AI. With an emphasis on energy efficiency and renewable energy, Singapore seeks to harmonize technological progress with ecological stewardship.
Nasdaq 100 and Nasdaq Composite hit all-time highs on 28th May 2024
The Nasdaq Composite closed at an all-time high above 17,000 for the first time, propelled by a rise in Nvidia shares, despite a generally uneventful market day.
Nasdaq 100 all-time high of 18907
Nasdaq Comp hit all-time high of 17019
The S&P 500 saw a marginal increase of 0.02%. Following remarks from Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped over 200 points.
These levels were not held and were lost over subsequent trading days as even Nvidia could not stop the Nasdaq from losing ground.
Museum of Conservative Party artifacts
“Look at this… the actual umbrella Rishi Sunak didn’t use during the UK 2024 election announcement!”
What is the Hindenburg Omen? A recent report suggests it has been triggered…
The Hindenburg Omen is a technical indicator that signals a higher likelihood of a stock market crash.
It measures the percentage of new 52-week highs and lows against a set reference percentage. The simultaneous occurrence of new highs and lows suggests a statistical anomaly from the norm, potentially foreshadowing a stock market downturn.
The four main criteria for a Hindenburg Omen signal
- The daily number of new 52-week highs and 52-week lows in a stock market index must be greater than a threshold amount (typically around 2.2%).
- The ratio of 52-week highs to 52-week lows cannot be more than two times.
- The stock market index must still be in an uptrend (determined using a 10-week moving average or the 50-day rate of change indicator).
- The McClellan Oscillator (MCO), which measures the shift in market sentiment, must be negative.
Once the criteria are satisfied, the Hindenburg Omen remains active for 30 trading days, and any subsequent signals within this time frame should be disregarded.
Confirmation of the Hindenburg Omen occurs if the McClellan Oscillator (MCO) stays negative throughout this period, while a positive MCO invalidates it.
Traders typically employ this indicator alongside other technical analysis methods to determine optimal selling times. However, it’s crucial to remember that the Hindenburg Omen is not infallible and should be used in conjunction with other market factors.
Microsoft’s AI system Recall can take screenshots
The UK’s data protection authority, the Information Commissioner’s Office (ICO), is reportedly making inquiries into a new screenshot feature available from Microsoft.
This feature, known as Recall, is a component of the Copilot+ suite and aims to take encrypted snapshots of a user’s laptop screen at intervals, storing them on the device. The ICO is examining the feature to determine the privacy protections in place.
Recall is designed to enable users to search their computer usage history using natural language, effectively creating a type of photographic memory of their activity. Concerns have been voiced about the feature’s potential to become a ‘privacy nightmare’ due to its ability to capture sensitive information. Microsoft has clarified that Recall is a voluntary feature, giving users the choice over the snapshots it collects. The data is kept on the local device and is inaccessible to Microsoft or others without access to the device.
The ICO’s investigation aims to ensure that companies thoroughly evaluate and address any risks to individual rights and freedoms prior to launching new technologies. Microsoft has reiterated its dedication to privacy and security, noting that these principles were integral to the development of Recall. The company has also indicated that users can specify the snapshots collected by Recall and that Microsoft Edge’s private browsing mode is not included.
Awareness of software features and privacy settings is crucial for users, particularly regarding personal data handling. The ICO’s inquiries represent a move towards addressing privacy concerns and safeguarding user data.
IMF upgrades China’s growth forecast to 5%
On Wednesday 29th May 2024, the International Monetary Fund increased its projection for China’s economic growth this year to 5% from the previous 4.6%, citing robust first-quarter figures and recent policy actions.
This revision reportedly came after the IMF’s routine evaluation visit to China. The institution now predicts that China’s economy will expand by 4.5% in 2025, an increase from the earlier estimate of 4.1%.
However, by 2029, the IMF expects China’s growth to slow to 3.3%, influenced by an aging demographic and a decline in productivity growth. This is a decrease from the previous medium-term growth forecast of 3.5%.
China’s economy experienced a stronger-than-anticipated growth of 5.3% in the Q1, bolstered by robust exports. Meanwhile, April’s data indicated that consumer spending continued to be weak, although there was a resurgence in industrial activity.
“Even the stamps are made in China!”
BOGOFF! Buy one get one free offer!
What further depths of despair will the Post Office will sink to – fining people for unknowingly using fake stamps.
Chinese EV makers continue their BIG push into European markets
This expansion occurs as the European Union investigates subsidies provided to Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers, a situation that may lead to the imposition of tariffs.
In May 2024 Nio opened a new EV showroom in Amsterdam, while Xpeng introduced its G9 and G6 sports utility vehicles in France.
Over the years, China’s electric vehicle industry has flourished due to the government’s incentives and support, raising concerns among politicians in Europe and the U.S.
Public marketing campaigns are unfolding against the backdrop of a European Commission investigation into subsidies provided to Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers. The outcome of this inquiry may result in EU tariffs being imposed on Chinese EV imports.
The United States has preempted such measures, with the Biden administration enacting a 100% tariff on Chinese EV imports.
Meanwhile, Chinese EV producers are intensifying their international expansion efforts, aiming to compete with Elon Musk’s Tesla on a global scale and secure an early advantage over traditional car manufacturers.
IMF recommends UK interest rates should be cut to 3.5% by end of 2025
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) advises that the Bank of England should contemplate reducing its interest rates to 3.5% by the end of 2025.
This suggestion is made as the UK’s economy steadily recovers from the recession caused by the pandemic, while policymakers are dealing with inflationary challenges.
The ‘thinking’ behind the recommendation
Economic Recovery and Inflation Outlook
The IMF’s recommendation is grounded in its assessment of the UK’s economic trajectory.
Growth Forecast
The International Monetary Fund has upgraded its growth forecast for the UK in 2024, signaling a positive outlook. It anticipates growth of 0.7% this year and 1.5% in 2025.
Inflation
The IMF anticipates that UK inflation will decline to near the Bank of England’s target of 2% and stabilise at this rate in early 2025, indicating that inflationary pressures are within manageable limits.
Soft Landing
The UK economy is said to be approaching a ‘soft landing‘ following the mild recession of the previous year. Policymakers are focused on finding a balance between fostering growth and managing inflation.
Monetary Policy Considerations
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has been closely monitoring economic indicators and inflation trends. Here’s why the IMF’s recommendation matters:
Interest Rate Peaks
The Monetary Policy Committee has indicated that interest rates might have reached their peak. The current restrictive monetary policy is having an impact on the actual economy and the dynamics of inflation.
Market Expectations
Analysts anticipate the first interest rate cut by September 2024 at the latest. Market expectations align with this projection, with the base interest rate likely to be lowered to 4% by the end of 2025.
Balancing Act
Policymakers face the delicate task of supporting economic recovery while preventing runaway inflation. The IMF’s suggestion aims to strike this balance.
Implications for Borrowers and Savers
Mortgage Holders
Variable Rate Mortgages
If you have a variable rate mortgage, a rate cut could reduce your monthly payments. However, keep an eye on your lender’s response to any rate changes.
Fixed Rate Mortgages
Fixed-rate borrowers won’t immediately benefit from rate cuts, but they should still monitor the situation. If rates continue to fall, refinancing might become attractive.
Savers
Savings Accounts
Lower interest rates typically lead to diminished returns on savings accounts. It may be wise to diversify your investments to seek potentially higher yields in other areas.
Fixed-Term Deposit
Current fixed-term deposits will remain unaffected; however, new deposits might generate lower yields. It is advisable to carefully assess your alternatives.
Conclusion
The IMF’s recommendation highlights the intricate balance between fostering economic recovery and managing inflation. As the Bank of England considers its next steps, it is crucial for borrowers and savers to remain informed and adjust their financial strategies as needed.
For homeowners, investors, and savers alike, grasping the potential consequences of rate cuts is key to making well-informed choices in an ever-changing economic environment.
Disclaimer: The information provided here is based on current projections and should not be considered financial advice. It is not given as financial advice – it is for discussion and analysis only!
Consult a professional advisor for personalised recommendations.
Remember – always do your careful research first!
RESEARCH! RESEARCH! RESEARCH!
Update
The Bank of England has given its strongest hint yet that interest rates could be cut this summer. This comment was observed in a recent speech given by the deputy governor of the Bank of England.
“Every vote counts – even the green one!”
Make-shift polling station
Bakery fakery!
