Tag: Russia

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Shock but no ‘awe’ in Trump’s first 100 days in office

Sledgehammer policies

U.S. President Donald Trump has definitely brought a lot of shock in the first 100 days of his presidency, smashing trade links, alliances, and even his own government, but it can hardly be said to have left anybody truly in ‘awe’.

Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office during his second term have been a whirlwind of activity, marked by bold moves and significant controversy.

His poll rating is the lowest of any President of recent times for the first 100 days. It currently sits at around 41% (a CNN poll result suggests).

How does it compare?

Harry S. Truman, hit a rock-bottom approval rating of 22% in 1952. Other presidents like Richard Nixon and George W. Bush also dipped below 25%. But these were during their terms and not in the first 100 days.

His administration has focused heavily on reshaping trade policies, imposing tariffs that have disrupted global markets and strained relationships with long-standing allies.

Despite his claims of progress, no major trade deals have been finalised, leaving many questioning the effectiveness of his approach.

Legal challenges

Domestically, Trump’s policies have faced significant legal challenges, with numerous lawsuits filed against his administration. His stance on immigration and energy has sparked heated debates, reflecting the polarising nature of his decisions.

Trump’s ‘drill-baby-drill’ mantra has not had the desire reaction – oil prices has fallen with U.S. oil below $65 a barrel.

The automotive industry, for instance, has grappled with regulatory uncertainty and additional costs due to his tariffs, prompting him to soften some measures in response to industry concerns.

Internationally, Trump’s actions have raised concerns about U.S. credibility and stability. His hostile stance toward traditional allies, such as Canada, the EU and NATO, has left multi-decade relationships in tatters.

Meanwhile, his administration’s handling of the ongoing war in Ukraine and trade negotiations with China has drawn criticism for its lack of tangible results.

Despite these challenges, Trump remains confident in his vision for America. He has claimed progress in tariff negotiations with India, suggesting that a trade deal may be on the horizon.

No deals… yet

There has not been a single trade deal concluded with Trump’s administration – despite him reportedly claiming to have done ‘200 deals’ with only 195 countries in the world.

China is still striking a defiant tone on trade, and the war in Ukraine rages on. The president has also been forced to walk back on his “reciprocal tariffs.” 

However, his administration’s approach has left many wondering whether his first 100 days will be remembered for their impact or their controversy.

As the dust settles, the world watches closely to see how Trump’s policies will shape the future of the United States and its role on the global stage.

Trump may have wanted his first 100 days to be historic, and they were – but for all the wrong reasons.  

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No tariffs for Russia?

Russia escapes Trumps tariffs

Russia’s exemption from recent U.S. tariffs has sparked curiosity and debate. While many nations face new trade duties, Russia remains notably absent from the list

This decision stems from a combination of geopolitical, economic, and strategic factors.

One key reason is the existing sanctions imposed on Russia by several countries, including the United States, following its invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

These sanctions have already significantly curtailed trade between Russia and its global partners, rendering additional tariffs less impactful.

For instance, U.S.-Russia trade has dwindled to a fraction of its pre-war levels, focusing primarily on strategic goods like fertilisers and chemicals.

Another factor is the ongoing diplomatic efforts to address the conflict in Ukraine. Some analysts suggest that exempting Russia from tariffs could be a strategic move to maintain a channel for negotiation and potential cooperation.

This approach might aim to encourage Russia’s participation in peace talks or other diplomatic initiatives.

Additionally, the structure of Russia’s exports plays a role. Certain goods, such as fertilisers, are critical to global supply chains, and imposing tariffs could disrupt markets and harm economies reliant on these imports.

While the decision has drawn criticism, it underscores the complexities of balancing economic policies with geopolitical realities.

The debate continues as the global community navigates these challenging dynamics caused through the imposition of U.S. tariffs.

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Russia’s central bank raises key rate to 21% to tackle high inflation

Russia bank rate

On Friday 25th October 2024, Russia’s central bank increased its key interest rate by 2% (200 basis points) to 21%, attributing the decision to consumer price increases significantly exceeding its projections and cautioning about persistent high inflation risks in the medium term

This rate hike surpasses the 1% (100 basis-point) rise anticipated by analysts and sets the bank’s benchmark rate at its highest level since February 2003, as reported by analysts.

Previously, the key rate had been raised by 1% (100 basis points) to 19% in September 2024.

It was reported that the annual seasonally adjusted inflation hit an average of 9.8% in September 2024, up from 7.5% in August 2024.

It is now anticipated the rate will stick at around the 8.0% – 8.5% range for the remainder of 2024. This is running above a July 2024 forecast of around 6.5% – 7.0%.

See more central bank interest rate moves here

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China’s exports up by 7.6% in May – more than expected

China exports increase

China’s exports in May increased more than anticipated, whereas imports fell short of expectations, according to customs data released on Friday 7th May 2024.

Exports increased by 7.6% in May from the previous year, surpassing the analysts’ expectations of 6% growth. Imports, however, increased by 1.8% during that time, missing forecasts of an expected 4% growth.

According to analysts’ calculations based on official data, China’s imports and exports to the U.S. and EU declined during that period. However, trade with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) increased, with a 4.1% year-on-year rise in China’s exports to the region from January to May.

China’s exports to Russia decreased, but its imports from Russia grew by 7.5%. Despite trade tensions with the U.S., China’s exports have remained robust, contributing to the country’s overall economic growth.

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IMF says Russia is expected to grow faster than all advanced economies in 2024

Oil

The International Monetary Fund calculates that Russia’s economy will expand more rapidly than all advanced economies this year.

According to the latest World Economic Outlook released by the IMF, Russia’s economy is projected to expand by 3.2% in 2024.

This growth outpaces the anticipated growth rates for the U.S. at 2.7%, the U.K. at 0.5%, Germany at 0.2%, and France at 0.7%.

G7 growth percentages

  • Russia at 3.2%
  • U.S. at 2.7%
  • France at 0.7%
  • U.K. at 0.5%
  • Germany at 0.2%

The forecast may be galling for Western countries that have endeavoured to economically isolate, restrict and punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Russia has demonstrated that Western sanctions on its industries have made it more self-sufficient and that private consumption and domestic investment remain resilient.

Oil exports

Oil and commodity exports to nations such as India and China, (two of the largest countries in the world by population) – as well as alleged sanction evasion and high oil prices, have allowed Russia to maintain strong oil export incomes streams.

UK and Europe growth

Outside of Russia, the IMF has revised its forecasts for Europe and the UK, projecting a growth of 0.5% for this year. This positions the UK as the second-lowest performer within the G7 group of advanced economies, trailing behind Germany.

The G7 also includes France, Italy, Japan, Canada and the U.S.

However, UK growth is expected to improve to 1.5% in 2025, placing the UK in the top three best G7 performers, according to the IMF.

The IMF also reported said that interest rates in the UK will remain higher than other advanced nations, close to 4% until 2029.

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Big tech vows action on ‘fake’ AI in elections

Fake AI news

Most of the world’s largest tech companies, including Microsoft, Amazon and Google have agreed to tackle what they are calling deceptive artificial intelligence (AI) in elections

The tech accord

The twenty companies have signed an accord committing them to fighting voter-deceiving content. They say they will deploy technology to detect and counter the material.

The Tech Accord to Combat Deceptive Use of AI in 2024 Elections was announced at the Munich Security Conference on Friday 16th February 2024.

The issue has come into sharp focus because it is estimated up to four billion people will be voting this year in countries such as the U.S., UK and India.

Technology to mitigate risk

Among the accord’s pledges are commitments to develop technology to mitigate risks related to deceptive election content generated by AI, and to provide transparency to the public about the action firms have taken.

Other steps include sharing best practice with one another and educating the public about how to spot when they might be seeing manipulated content.

Signatories include social media platforms X, Snap, Adobe and Meta, the owner of Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp.

Proactive

However, the accord has some shortcomings, according to computer scientist Dr Deepak Padmanabhan, from Queen’s University Belfast, who has co-authored a report on elections and AI.

But he reportedly said they needed to take more proactive action instead of waiting for content to be posted before then seeking to take it down.

That could mean that realistic AI content, that may be more harmful, may stay on a platform for longer compared to obvious fakes which are easier to detect and remove, he suggested.

Target

The accord’s signatories say they will target content which deceptively fakes or alters the appearance, voice, or actions of key figures in elections.

It will also seek to deal with audio, images or videos which provide false information to voters about when, where, and how they can vote.

We have a responsibility to help ensure these tools don’t become weaponised in elections, Brad Smith, the president of Microsoft is reported to have said.

These measures, in my opinion, are a sticking plaster and will not stop the spread of dishonest and fake news!

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Russia surprises with massive interest rate hike hit of 3.5%

Russia Interest rate increase

Interest rate pushed to 12%

Russia’s central bank has announced a surprise hike in its key lending rate by 3.5%, from 8.5% to 12%, as the country’s economic recovery loses steam amid a resurgence of COVID-19 cases and weak domestic demand.

The decision was announced after an emergency meeting of the bank’s board of directors was called a day earlier as the ruble declined. The fall comes as Moscow increases military spending and Western sanctions weigh on its energy exports.

The Russian currency passed 101 roubles to the dollar on Monday, losing more than a third of its value since the beginning of the year and hitting the lowest level in almost 17 months. It had recovered slightly after the central bank announced the meeting.

The central bank blamed the weak ruble on ‘loose monetary policy‘, suggesting that bank has ‘all the tools necessary‘ to stabilize the situation.

More imports, less exports

By raising borrowing costs, the central bank is trying to fight price spikes as Russia imports more and exports less, especially oil and natural gas, with defense spending going up and sanctions taking a toll. Importing more and exporting less means a smaller trade surplus, which typically weighs on a country’s currency.

The bank also made a big rate hike of 1% last month, saying inflation is expected to keep rising and the fall in the ruble is adding to the risk.

After Western countries imposed sanctions on Russia over the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the ruble plunged to a low of 130 to the dollar, but the central bank enacted capital controls that stabilized its value.