Tag: AAA

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Moody’s cuts U.S. outlook to negative

U.S. credit rating stable to negative

Moody’s, a credit rating agency, lowered its ratings outlook on the United States to negative from stable.

This means that Moody’s sees a higher risk of a downgrade in the future, which could affect the borrowing costs and confidence of the U.S. government.

Moody’s actions

The main reasons for Moody’s action are the rising deficits and debt levels of the U.S., as well as the continued political polarization that hampers effective policymaking. Moody’s also cited the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the recent failures of some U.S. banks as factors that have worsened the environment for the U.S. government and the banking system in general.

Warning!

Moody’s warned that the U.S.’s deficits are likely to remain ‘very large’. It also warned that ‘continued political turmoil or polarization’ in Congress further increases the risk the U.S. will not be able to reach consensus on a fiscal plan to slow the decline in debt affordability‘.

Moody’s still maintains a triple ‘A’ (AAA) credit rating on the U.S. government debt, which is the highest possible rating, but warns of the challenges and uncertainties that the U.S. faces in restoring its fiscal strength and stability.

The ‘AAA‘ rating is at risk.

U.S. government on brink of shutdown, again

The federal government is on the brink of another shutdown, with just a week left for the Republican-led House, Democratic-led Senate and Biden White House to reach a breakthrough on funding.

U.S. debt is at an all-time high!

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Fitch downgrades U.S. credit rating to AA+ over fiscal concerns

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Must try harder

The U.S. has lost its top credit rating from Fitch Ratings, one of the three major credit rating agencies, due to its recent political gridlock over the debt ceiling and deteriorating fiscal situation. How much does this matter?

Fitch re-calculated the U.S.’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating (IDR) from AAA to AA+ early August 2023, reportedly saying it was because of a ‘steady deterioration in standards of governance‘ and a lack of confidence in fiscal management.

U.S. Financial rating downgrade
Fitch Rating Agency downgrade U.S. from AAA to AA+ August 2023

Downgrade

The downgrade comes despite the resolution of the U.S. debt ceiling crisis in June 2023, when Congress agreed to suspend the $31.4tn borrowing limit until January 2025. Fitch warned that the U.S. faces serious long-term fiscal challenges, such as rising debt levels, unfunded social security and Medicare obligations, and the real possibility of a recession.

Disagree

Janet Yellen, the U.S. Treasury Secretary and the White House strongly disagreed with Fitch’s decision, calling it ‘arbitrary’ and ‘bizarre‘. They stated that the U.S. economy is fundamentally strong and that Treasury securities remain the world’s safest and most liquid assets. They reportedly suggested that Fitch’s calculation model is flawed and outdated.

Downgrade rattles markets

The downgrade is unlikely to have a significant impact on the U.S.’s borrowing costs or reputation, as it still retains its triple ‘A’ rating from the other two major credit rating agencies, Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s.

However, it could increase market volatility and pressure the U.S. to address its fiscal imbalances. But according to Janet Yellen these do not exist and there is no problem…?