Despite the weight of U.S. tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, China’s export sector has shown remarkable resilience, posting an 8.1% increase in April 2025 compared to the previous year.
This surge comes as a surprise, surpassing economists’ expectations of a modest 1.9% rise.
While China’s outbound shipments to the U.S. plunged by over 21%, exports to Southeast Asian nations soared by 20.8%, with Indonesia and Thailand seeing particularly strong growth.
This shift suggests that Chinese exporters are successfully redirecting their goods to alternative markets, mitigating the impact of U.S. trade restrictions.
The tariffs, which now stand at 145% on Chinese imports, were designed to pressure Beijing into trade concessions. In response, China retaliated with 125% duties on American goods, further escalating tensions.
However, analysts suggest that some of China’s export growth may be attributed to transshipment through third countries and contracts signed before the tariffs took effect.
Despite the export boom, China’s factory activity has taken a hit, falling to a 16-month low in April 2025, with new export orders dropping to their lowest level since December 2022.
Concerns are mounting that the tariffs could spill over into the job market, with estimates suggesting China could lose 16 million jobs tied to U.S. – bound production.
As both nations prepare for high-level trade talks in Switzerland, there is cautious optimism that a phased rollback of tariffs could be on the horizon.
While a comprehensive deal remains elusive, even minor tariff reductions could provide relief to businesses on both sides.
The coming months will be crucial in determining whether China can sustain its export momentum or if the tariff war will take a deeper toll on its economy.