‘Is this the HS2 ticket office? – ‘Does this train go north?’ – ‘No, but we have a very expensive special ticket that will take you round in circles!’
The development of a controversial UK oil field, Rosebank, has been given the go-ahead
The Rosebank oil and gas field is a controversial project that has been approved by the UK government despite the concerns of environmental activists and some politicians.
It is located about 80 miles west of Shetland in the North Sea and is estimated to contain 500 million barrels of oil. It is operated by Equinor, a Norwegian state-owned energy company, with its partners Ithaca Energy and Suncor Energy. The development of the field is expected to cost £6 billion and create 2,000 jobs.
Carbon conflict
It is also expected to produce 200 million tonnes of carbon dioxide over its lifetime, which is equivalent to the annual emissions of 40 million cars.
The approval of the Rosebank field has sparked a debate over the role of fossil fuels in the UK’s energy transition and its commitment to net zero emissions by 2050. Critics argue that the project is incompatible with the UK’s climate goals and that it will undermine its credibility. They also claim that most of the cost of the development will be borne by the taxpayers through tax reliefs and subsidies.
UK not yet ready to turn off the oil and gas
However, some supporters of the project contend that it will provide a reliable source of energy and revenue for the UK, as well as support thousands of jobs in the oil and gas sector. They also point out that the UK still relies on fossil fuels for most of its energy needs and that it will need to import more oil and gas from abroad if it does not develop its own resources.
They argue that the Rosebank field will be developed with high environmental standards and that it will contribute to the UK’s transition to a low-carbon economy by investing in renewable energy and carbon capture technologies.
Contentious
The Rosebank oil and gas field is a complex and contentious issue that reflects the challenges and trade-offs involved in balancing economic growth, energy security, and environmental protection. It is likely to remain a topic of heated discussion.
The field is expected to start producing oil from 2026
If drilling starts on time, Rosebank could account for 8% of the UK’s total oil production between 2026 and 2030.
Roughly 245 million barrels will be produced in the first five years of drilling, with the remaining being extracted between 2032 and 2051.
Though oil is the main product, the site will also produce gas.
About 1,600 jobs are expected to be created during the peak of construction. Long term, the operation will create 450 jobs.
Will it mean lower energy bills in the UK?
No! Oil and gas from UK waters is not necessarily used here – it is sold to the highest bidder on global markets.
What Rosebank produces will be sold at world market prices, so the project will not cut energy prices for UK consumers.
The Norwegian state oil company Equinor – which is the majority owner of Rosebank – has confirmed this.
Oil also tends to be sent around the world to be refined – the UK does not have the capacity to refine all its own oil-based products.
UK pound closes in on a six month low
According to the latest data, 1.00 GBP is equal to 1.22 USD
This means that one British pound can buy 1.22 U.S. dollars at the current market rate. The exchange rate fluctuates depending on various factors such as supply and demand, interest rates, inflation, trade balance, and political stability.
Weak against U.S. dollar
The British pound has been weakening against the U.S. dollar since the Brexit referendum in 2016, when the UK voted to leave the European Union. The uncertainty and instability caused by the Brexit process have reduced the confidence and attractiveness of the British currency in the global market. The U.S. dollar, on the other hand, has been strengthening due to its status as a safe haven and a reserve currency in times of crisis.
In September 2022 the pound fell to its lowest level against the U.S. dollar
- Excessive government spending and tax cuts that undermined confidence in the UK economy.
- Price caps and record high inflation that eroded the purchasing power of the pound.
- The strength of the dollar as a safe haven currency amid global uncertainty.
- The prospect of a new Scottish independence referendum that increased political risk.
- The impact of the Covid pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict on supply chains and trade.
Artwork of GBP
September 2022
The pound reached $1.0327 at one point in late September 2022, its lowest since Britain went decimal in 1971. It also fell more than 1% against the euro to about 86.80p, its lowest level since May 2020.
Today, 22nd Septmber 2023
The current exchange rate of 1.22 USD per GBP is near the lowest point in the last 30 and 90 days, which was 1.2383 USD per GBP.
The highest point in the same period was 1.3128 USD per GBP. The average exchange rate in the last 30 days was 1.2563 USD per GBP, and in the last 90 days was 1.2721 USD per GB pound.
Pound Sterling from 2012 – 2023
Introducing the UK magic message government lectern
‘Have you noticed everytime the government needs to persuade the public that their ‘message’ is so super important – they roll out the magic message lectern”.
Other important messages
And this…
And this one…
The latest government slogan… ‘LONG-TERM DECISIONS FOR A BRIGHTER FUTURE’
Let’s roll out the advertisements to persuade the UK public the government knows best… again.
They convinced me!
Not!
It’s a joke!
The UK government is trying to peruade the public that the recent Sunak climate rollback decision is a good thing… ‘LONG-TERM DECISIONS FOR A BRIGHTER FUTURE’
Who are the kidding?
TikTok’s algorithm is failing to provide a safe and positive experience for its users and for society
TikTok is a popular social media app that allows users to create and share short videos. But, it has faced some controversies regarding its algorithm, design, and data protection.
Tiktok has issues
The company was fined $368 million in Europe for failing to protect children’s data. The Irish Data Protection Commission, which oversees TikTok’s activities in the European Union, said that the company had violated the bloc’s signature privacy law.
An investigation by the DPC found that in the latter half of 2020, TikTok’s default settings didn’t do enough to protect children’s accounts.
Anti-social app
TikTok drove online ultra online ‘frenzies’ that encouraged anti-social behaviour to spill over into the real world, a BBC Three investigation revealed.
Ex-employees said that the issue was not being tackled for fear of slowing the growth of the app’s business. These ‘frenzies’ were evidenced by interviews with former staffers, app users and BBC analysis of wider social media data. They included false murder accusations, interference in police investigations, school vandalism, and riots.
Anti-social algorithm
The algorithm and design means people are seeing videos which they wouldn’t normally be recommended – which, in turn, incentivise them to do unusual things in their own videos on the platform.
Former employees likened these frenzies to ‘wildfires’ and described them as ‘dangerous’, especially as the app’s audience can be young and impressionable.
Surprise! Bank of England hold rates steady at 5.25%
UK interest rates have been left unchanged at 5.25% by the Bank of England (BoE).
The decision comes a day after figures revealed an unexpected slowdown in UK nflation in August 2023.
The Bank had previously raised rates some14 times in a row to tackle inflation, leading to increases in mortgage payments, business loans and consumer borrowing. But it also delivered higher savings rates.
The inflation target for the Bank of England is 2%
The latest move raises the prospect that this cycle of rate increases may have peaked.
For most of us eating less and taking moderate exercise will help with our general health and weight loss… and then we have DRUGS!!!
Fat profits for the pharmaceutical sector again.
The maker of weight-loss drug ‘Wegovy’ has become Europe’s most valuable company, dethroning the French luxury conglomerate LVMH.
Is there an irony here…? Exploitation of the obese, or a genuine attempt to help? It is used in the fight against diabetes too.
It’s a business after all
Wegovy is a brand name for ‘Semaglutide‘, a prescription medicine used for weight loss in obese or overweight adults with other weight-related medical issues. It works by regulating appetite and reducing calorie intake, leading to weight loss and helping with weight management.
Wegovy was launched in the UK on 4th September 2023 and is available on the NHS as an ‘option‘ for weight management in line with NICE guidance, alongside a reduced-calorie diet and increased physical activity. However, only people with the highest medical need may qualify for the drug, as it is in short supply and its use will be restricted – but celebrities have direct access – do they have the ‘highest medical needs’? Of course they do.
Clinical trials
Wegovy has been shown to be effective in clinical trials, achieving up to a 15% reduction in body weight after one year. It has also been found to reduce the risk of a heart attack or stroke in obese people with cardiovascular disease by 20%.
To get Wegovy on the NHS, eligible adults would need a referral to an NHS specialist weight management service, which would usually be made by a GP. Alternatively, Wegovy can be obtained privately, but it may be expensive and not covered by insurance.
Shares rose after the Danish pharmaceutical giant, Novo Nordisk, launched the popular drug in the UK.
At the close of trading on Monday, 4th September 2023, the company had a stock market valuation of $428bn (£339bn).
The drug is now available on the National Health Service in the UK and also via private outlets.
Obesity treatment
Wegovy is an obesity treatment that is taken once a week which tricks people into thinking that they are already full, so they end up eating less and losing weight.
Famous personalities such as Elon Musk are among the reported users of the drug, which has gained traction in Hollywood and with the public more widely since it was approved by regulators in the US in 2021.
Wegovy and Ozempic – a diabetes treatment with similar effects – have been described as ‘miracle’ drugs. Would that be a ‘miracle for the user or for the pharmaceutical company – or both perhaps?
Experts warn the drug is not a quick fix nor a ‘substitute for a healthy diet and exercise’.
In trials, users often put weight back on after stopping treatment.
‘Supply restriction as production ramps up’
There has been a global shortage of the drug, so only limited is awailable for the NHS in the UK.
The company said it will continue to restrict global supplies as it works to ramp up manufacturing.
While the findings still have to be fully reviewed, experts agreed the results were potentially significant.
Exercise, eat less and take… Wegovy!!
U.S. holds interest rates at 5.25% – 5.5%, but expect higher rates for longer
Fed holds steady
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady in a decision released Wednesday 20th September 2023, while also indicating it still expects one more hike before the end of the year and fewer cuts than previously indicated next year.
That final increase, if realised, would be it for now according to data released at the end of the Fed two-day meeting. If the Fed goes ahead with the move, it would be the twelfth rate hike since policy tightening began in March 2022.
No change priced in
Markets had fully priced in no move at this meeting, which kept the fed funds rate targeted in a range between 5.25%-5.5%, the highest in some 22 years. The rate fixes what banks charge each other for overnight lending but also affects many other forms of consumer debt too.
While the no-hike was expected, there was plenty of uncertainty over where the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), would go from here.
Judging from reports released Wednesday 20th September 2023, the bias appears towards more restrictive policy and a higher-for-longer approach to interest rates.
25 Countries, Housing One-quarter of the World’s Population, Face Extremely High Water Stress
Water stress measures the amount of available supply a country uses to meet demand, and is expected to worsen as the climate warms.
A quarter of the world’s population is currently exposed to extremely high annual water stress, according to new data from the World Resources Institute (WRI).
New data from WRI’s Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas show that 25 countries – housing one-quarter of the global population – face extremely high water stress each year, regularly using up almost their entire available water supply. And at least 50% of the world’s population – around 4 billion people – live under highly water-stressed conditions for at least one month of the year.
Living with this level of water stress jeopardizes people’s lives, jobs, food and energy security. Water is central to growing crops and raising livestock, producing electricity, maintaining human health, fostering equitable societies and meeting the world’s climate goals.
Without better water management, population growth, economic development and climate change are poised to worsen water stress.
What’s Causing Global Water Stress?
Across the world, demand for water is exceeding what’s available. Globally, demand has more than doubled since 1960.
Increased water demand is often the result of growing populations and industries like irrigated agriculture, livestock, energy production and manufacturing. Meanwhile, lack of investment in water infrastructure, unsustainable water use policies or increased variability due to climate change can all affect the available water supply.
Water stress, the ratio of water demand to renewable supply, measures the competition over local water resources.
The smaller the gap between supply and demand, the more vulnerable a place is to water shortages. A country facing ‘extreme water stress’ means it is using at least 80% of its available supply, ‘high water stress’ means it is withdrawing 40% of its supply.
Without intervention – such as investment in water infrastructure and better water governance – water stress will continue to get worse, particularly in places with rapidly growing populations and economies.
Which Countries Face the Worst Water Stress?
The data shows that 25 countries are currently exposed to extremely high water stress annually, meaning they use over 80% of their renewable water supply for irrigation, livestock, industry and domestic needs. Even a short-term drought puts these places in danger of running out of water and sometimes prompts governments to shut off the taps. We’ve already seen this scenario play out in many places around the world, such as India, Iran, Mexico, South Africa, and even in England.
The five most water-stressed countries are Bahrain, Cyprus, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman and Qatar. The water stress in these countries is mostly driven by low supply, paired with demand from domestic, agricultural and industrial use.
The most water-stressed regions are the Middle East and North Africa, where 83% of the population is exposed to extremely high water stress, and South Asia, where 74% is exposed.
The 25 counties currently experiencing extreme water stress annually.
1. Bahrain
2. Cyprus
3. Kuwait
4. Lebanon
5. Oman
6. Qatar
7. United Arab Emirates
8. Saudi Arabia
9. Israel
10. Egypt
11. Libya
12. Yemen
13. Botswana
14. Iran
15. Jordan
16. Chile
17. San Marino
18. Belgium
19. Greece
20. Tunisia
21. Namibia
22. South Africa
23. Iraq
24. India
25. Syria
Water Demand Is Exploding in Africa but Plateauing in Wealthier Nations
The biggest change in water demand between now and 2050 is expected to occur in Sub-Saharan Africa. While most countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are not extremely water-stressed right now, demand is growing faster there than any other region in the world. By 2050, water demand in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to skyrocket by 163% – 4 times the rate of change compared to Latin America, the second-highest region, which is expected to see a 43% increase in water demand.
Demand has plateaued in wealthier countries in North America and Europe. Investment in water-use efficiency has helped reduce in-country water use in high income countries, but water use and dependencies extend beyond national boundaries, and the water embedded in international trade from lower-middle income countries to high income countries will increasingly contribute to rising water stress in low and lower-middle income countries.
Water Stress Could Disrupt Economies and Agricultural Production
Increasing water stress threatens countries’ economic growth as well as the world’s food security.
According to data from Aqueduct, 31% of global GDP – a whopping $70 trillion – will be exposed to high water stress by 2050, up from $15 trillion (24% of global GDP) in 2010. Just four countries – India, Mexico, Egypt and Turkey – account for over half of the exposed GDP in 2050.
Energy, industrial and agricultural production issues
Water shortages can lead to industrial interruptions, energy outages and agricultural production losses – like those already being seen in India, where a lack of water to cool thermal powerplants between 2017 and 2021 resulted in 8.2 terawatt-hours in lost energy – or enough electricity to power 1.5 million Indian households for five years. Failing to implement better water management policies could result in GDP losses in India, China and Central Asia of 7% to 12%, and 6% in much of Africa by 2050 according to the Global Commission on Adaptation.
Global food security is also at risk. Already, 60% of the world’s irrigated agriculture faces extremely high water stress – particularly sugarcane, wheat, rice and maize. Yet to feed a projected 10 billion people by 2050, the world will need to produce 56% more food calories than it did in 2010 – all while dealing with increasing water stress as well as climate-driven disasters like droughts and floods.
Better Management for a Water-secure Future
It’s good to understand the state of the world’s water supply and demand, but water stress doesn’t necessarily lead to water crisis. For example, places like Singapore and the U.S. city of Las Vegas prove that societies can thrive even under the most water-scarce conditions by employing techniques like removing water-thirsty grass, desalination, and wastewater treatment and reuse.
Solution is NOT expensive
In fact, WRI research shows that solving global water challenges is cheaper than you might think, costing the world about 1% of GDP, or 29 cents per person, per day from 2015 to 2030. What’s missing is the political will and financial backing to make these cost-effective solutions a reality.
If this cost conclusion is accurate – why aren’t we doing it?
Polluting car and climate push back
New car show room
We just don’t have the funds, do we?
UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is reportedly planning to water down some of Britain’s climate commitments, saying the country must fight climate change without penalising workers and consumers.
Sunak issued a statement Tuesday in response to a BBC report saying the prime minister is considering extending deadlines for bans on new petrol and diesel cars – currently due in 2030 —- and on new natural-gas home heating.
The news drew dismay from environmental groups, opposition parties and some members of Sunak’s Conservative Party. It broke as senior politicians from the U.K. and around the world gather at the United Nations General Assembly in New York, where Biden and Yellen have placed climate high on the agenda.
Senior Tories who have championed net zero policies are reportedly furious at Sunak’s plans to delay or water down green measures. They warn that the decision will cost the U.K. jobs, inward investment and future economic growth that could have been theirs by committing to the industries of the future.
We won’t save the UK by bankrupting its people – Braverman
Home Secretary Suella Braverman says she backs Rishi Sunak’s expected shift on how the UK gets to net zero carbon emissions.
‘We’re not going to save the country by bankrupting the British people,’ she told BBC Breakfast.
It must be true, I’ve just seen it on the news. Is the UK broke? Is this the real reason for the climate roll-back?
‘We’re not going to save the country by bankrupting the British people’.
I for one am very confused??
Does the UK have the money? Is it a too big-a-burden for the UK tax payer? Can the UK generate enough ‘POWER’ from renewables? The UK needs fossil fuels?
Most of the world still needs fossil fuels!
Are we really ready to switch yet? Renewables and fossil fuels will have to work hand-in-hand for some time yet.
UK inflation in surprise fall, a ‘massive’ drop all of 0.1%
ONS says inflation dropped in August 2023
According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the UK’s inflation rate dropped unexpectedly in August 2023 to its lowest level since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which led to sharp rises in energy and food costs which were already on the rise due to the pandemic.
The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 6.7% in the 12 months to August 2023, down from 6.8% in July. The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) rose by 6.3% in the 12 months to August 2023, down from 6.4% in July.
The ONS said that the main factors behind the fall in inflation were lower prices for clothing, footwear, and second-hand cars, partly offset by higher prices for transport services and recreational goods.
UK Inflation 1989 – 2023 (ONS data)
The ONS also said that the inflation rate was still high compared with historical levels, and that it expected it to rise further in the coming months due to increases in energy bills and supply chain pressures.
You can find more details and data about the UK inflation and price indices on the ONS website or on the Consumer price inflation, UK: August 2023 time series.
Jeremy says its OK!
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said the news showed ‘the plan to deal with inflation is working’. Well Jeremy, your comments are encouraging – if you truly believe a 0.1% fall in inflation is ‘working‘. Where were you when the Bank of England lost control of the ‘2% inflation remit’.
Where were you when the excessive ‘uncontrolled’ government borrowing infected the UK’s economy? With all that ‘free’ money sloshing around the system, what did you really expect would happen..?
NHS Strike action again, with nearly 8 million waiting in the queue
British Medical Association-organised strike
Consultants and junior doctors in England are holding their first joint strike in the history of the NHS.
Waiting list
The latest data from NHS England, states the number of people waiting to start routine hospital treatment is at a record high of 7.68 million at the end of July 2023. This is up from 7.57 million in June 2023 and the highest since records began in August 2007.
The waiting list has increased by more than 3 million since February 2020, the last full month before the start of the pandemic. The NHS is facing many different challenges due to the impact of Covid-19 on its services, staff and resources. This data suggests that the waiting list was already at 4 million even before the pandemic hit.
The latest strike action is a major factor now contributing to the NHS waiting list. Some reports suggest that over 850,000 routine operations and procedures have been cancelled so far this year, 2023 due to strike action alone.
Factors that may have contributed to the historical rise in the waiting list
- The suspension or reduction of non-urgent care during the peak of the pandemic to free up capacity for Covid-19 patients.
- The ongoing infection prevention and control measures that limit the number of patients that can be treated safely in hospitals.
- The staff shortages and burnout that affect the availability and productivity of the workforce.
- The increased demand for health services as people seek help for conditions that were delayed or worsened by the pandemic.
- Strike action.
The NHS is working hard to tackle the backlog and improve access to care for patients
- Increasing funding and capacity for elcare, such as by opening more operating theatres, expanding community services and using the independent sector.
- Implementing new models of care, such as virtual consultations, digital triage and shared decision making, to reduce unnecessary referrals and appointments.
- Prioritising patients based on clinical urgency and need, rather than waiting time alone, to ensure that those who would benefit most from treatment are seen first.
- Supporting staff wellbeing and retention, such as by offering flexible working, training and development opportunities and mental health support.
What about health education?
Government action
The government has also pledged to invest an extra £36 billion over the next three years to help the NHS recover from the pandemic and reform social care. However, some experts have warned that this may not be enough to address the underlying issues that affect the NHS performance and quality, such as workforce planning, public health funding and health inequalities.
How did it get so bad?
Lack of money or management failures? It has to one of these two. Throwing funds at an already badly managed ‘business’ will just amplify the problem allowing even more waste. And as the ‘system’ tackles the problem, more and more people will needlessly continue to suffer.
Fix our health service by fixing the people first!
Bank of England hits all-time confidence low
Confidence in Bank of England (BoE) is a measure of how much the public trusts the central bank to control inflation, set interest rates and maintain economic stability.
According to the latest Inflation ‘Attitudes Survey‘ conducted by the Bank of England in August 2023, confidence in Bank of England has plummeted to an all-time low.
Survey
The survey found that only 19% of the respondents were satisfied with the way the Bank of England was doing its job to set interest rates to control inflation, while 40% were dissatisfied. The net satisfaction rate was -21%, which is the lowest since the survey began in 1999.
2% inflation please
The main reason for the low confidence is the high inflation rate that has been persisting in the UK for more than a year. Inflation reached a peak of 11.1% in December 2022, and was still at 6.8% in July 2023, well above the Bank of England’s target of 2%. The Bank of England has raised interest rates 14 times since the end of 2021, from 0.1% to 5.25%, to try to bring inflation down, but this has also increased the cost of borrowing and living for many households and businesses.
Slow
Some critics have argued that the Bank of England (BoE) acted too slowly and too cautiously to raise interest rates when inflation was rising, while others have warned that raising rates too high and too fast could harm the economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic.
The public’s expectations of future inflation are also high, with a median answer of 2.9% for inflation in five years’ time, almost one percentage point higher than the Bank’s target.
Credibility
Confidence in Bank of England (BoE) is important because it affects how people behave in terms of spending, saving, investing, and borrowing.
Loss of faith
If people lose faith in the central bank’s ability to control inflation and maintain economic stability, they may act in ways that could worsen the situation, such as hoarding money, demanding higher wages, or taking on more debt.
Therefore, it is crucial for the Bank of England to communicate clearly and effectively with the public about its policies and actions, and to restore trust and confidence in its role as an independent and credible institution.
It is also useful to take notice of early warning signs, such as the economic red alert posed by inflation after the pandemic recovery started.
EU interest rates up again to 4%
Eurozone interest rates have been hiked again to a record high by the European Central Bank (ECB).
The bank raised its key rate for the 10th time in a row, to 4% from 3.75%, as it warned inflation was expected to remain too high for too long.
The latest increase came after forecasts predicted inflation, which is the rate prices rise at, would be 5.6% on average in 2023. However, the ECB signalled that this latest hike could be the last for now.
‘The council considers that the key ECB interest rates have reached levels that, maintained for a sufficiently long duration, will make a substantial contribution to the timely return of inflation to the target’, the bank reportedly said. The central bank originally expected inflation to be ‘transitory’.
It added that it expected inflation in the 20-nation bloc to fall to around 2.9% next year and 2.2% in 2025.
As in other parts of the world, the eurozone has been hit by rising food and energy prices that have squeezed household budgets and from the Russia/Ukraine war. Central banks have been increasing interest rates in an attempt to tame inflation and slow rising prices.
More expensive to borrow
The theory behind increasing rates is that by making it more expensive for people to borrow money, the ‘consumer’ will then have less excess cash to spend, meaning households will buy fewer things and then price rises will ease. But it is a balancing act as raising rates too aggressively could cause a recession.
Interest rates in the UK are currently higher than in the eurozone at 5.25%, but UK inflation is also higher at 6.8%, and the Bank of England is expected to raise rates again next week.
UK Farmers ‘struggling’ to harvest crops due to labour recruiting crisis
Attracting seasonal workers remains a problem for some UK farmers, despite the UK government’s attempts to increase the number of visas available for people from overseas.
There is a shortage of short term farm labour in the UK to pick crops, especially potatoes. Some of the possible causes and consequences of this situation range from Brexit to the war in war Ukraine.
Problems
Brexit has reduced access to temporary workers coming from the EU, while war in Ukraine has disrupted the flow from a country that has provided a large proportion of the UK’s harvest workers in recent years.
The UK government has a seasonal workers pilot scheme that offers short-term visas to those helping with food production, but the farming industry says it needs more than the 38,000 visas that have been made available.
High employment levels in the UK and alternative work opportunities in other sectors such as warehouses and delivery have made it harder for farmers to recruit local workers.
The labour shortage has led to food waste of home-grown fruit and vegetables, as some crops are left to rot in the fields or are harvested less frequently.
Food waste and supply chain
The food supply chain is also affected by the lack of workers in slaughterhouses, dairy farms, and other processing facilities.
The food waste and supply disruption could have negative impacts on the environment, the economy, and the consumers’ access to fresh and affordable produce
And it can be especially challenging for farmers in very rural areas, where transport is more difficult and the pools of workers available are likely to be smaller.
India’s ‘massive expansion’ could play key role in global economic growth
India expands
Many economists stronly believe that India’s stellar economic trajectory alongside strong forecasts for some Southeast Asian countries will be important drivers for future global growth.
The next decade, could see Asia Pacific become the fastest growing region of the world economy. India, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam will most likely be among the world’s fastest growing emerging markets over the next 10 years.
India’s economy grew 7.8% in the June quarter, marking the fastest pace of growth in a year.
The momentum in the Indian economy looks really strong at the moment, economists suggest. Some forecasts expect that India will surpass Japan to become the third largest economy by 2030, with the country’s GDP projected to rise from $3.5 trillion in 2022 to $7.3 trillion by 2030.
As a region, Asia-Pacific’s growth is expected to strengthen from 3.3% last year to 4.2% this year, according to economic projections.
Over the next decade, we expect that about 55% of the total increase in the world’s GDP will come from the Asia-Pacific region.
Where does this leave the U.S. and China?
Still, the U.S. will remain an important driver of the global economy, accounting for some 15% of the world’s growth over the next decade.
China will also still be pivotal in this growth story, contributing to about one-third of the total increase over the same period, analysts suggest. China’s recovery has been weaker than expected and the expected ‘growth momentum’ has wained.
China has been affected by a slew of economic data broadly missing expectations.
As a whole, analysts expect global growth to come in at 2.5% this year and next. But please bear in mind these are forecast and move regularly.
Ashoka Chakra – the Flag of India
The flag of India is a horizontal tricolour of saffron, white and green, with a navy blue wheel called the Ashoka Chakra in the centre. The flag was adopted on 22nd July 1947, after India gained independence from British rule.
It is based on the Swaraj flag, which was designed by Pingali Venkayya and modified by Mahatma Gandhi. The colours and symbols of the flag have different meanings and interpretations.
Saffron represents courage, sacrifice, Hinduism and Buddhism. White represents peace, truth, purity and other religions in India. Green represents faith, fertility, Islam and Sikhism.
The Ashoka Chakra represents the law of dharma, the cycle of life and death, and the ancient Indian emperor Ashoka who spread Buddhism across Asia.
India’s flag is also known as the Tiranga, which means ‘the tricolour’ in Hindi. The flag has a ratio of 2:3 and can only be made of khadi, a hand-spun cloth.
The flag code of India regulates the usage and display of the flag by the government and the public.
‘Now, let me tell you the ‘truth’ about climate change!’
Another BIG blast off moment for India on the global stage as it hosts the G20 Summit
India hosting the G20 summit
The G20 summit will be held in New Delhi on 9th and 10th September 2023. This is the first time that India has hosted such a prestigious event, which brings together the leaders of the world’s 20 major economies with the exception of Russia.
India has invited several other countries and organisations to attend the summit, to include Bangladesh, Egypt, Spain, Netherlands, Nigeria, Mauritius, Singapore, Oman, UAE, UN, IMF, WHO, WTO, ILO, OECD, ISA, CDRI and ADB.
Broad range of issues
The summit will cover a range of issues, such as global health and pandemic response, economic recovery and resilience, climate change and environment, digital transformation and innovation, and gender equality and women empowerment. India has also proposed three new agenda items for the summit: reformed multilateralism, physical and social infrastructure for rapid inclusive development, and media and entertainment.
Major global player
India hopes that the G20 summit will cement its role as a major global player and showcase its achievements and aspirations to the world. However, the summit also faces some challenges and uncertainties, such as the absence of China’s Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin, the possibility of failing to agree on a joint communique, and the criticism of India’s beautification efforts that have displaced many poor people and animals.
Significant growth expected for India
India’s economy is expected to grow significantly in the coming years. For example, some economists predict that India’s annual gross domestic product growth (GDP) will average 6.3% through 2030. Others estimate that India’s GDP is likely to more than double from current levels by 2031. The OECD also forecasts that India will grow by 6% in 2023–24 and by 7% in 2024–25.
Some of the factors that may contribute to India’s economic growth are its strong emphasis on physical infrastructure development, ease of doing business, improved global conditions, and increased public spending on health care. However, there are also some challenges and risks that India may face, such as inflationary pressures, global uncertainties, environmental issues, and the labour market.
What is the G20?
The G20 is a group of 20 major economies that meet annually to discuss global issues such as economic growth, trade, development, health, climate change and energy.
Members of the G20
- Argentina
- Australia
- Brazil
- Canada
- China
- France
- Germany
- India
- Indonesia
- Italy
- Japan
- Republic of Korea
- Mexico
- Russia
- Saudi Arabia
- South Africa
- Turkey
- United Kingdom
- United States
- European Union
The European Union is represented by the European Commission and the European Central Bank. The G20 accounts for around 80% of gross world product, 75% of international trade, two-thirds of the global population, and 60% of the world’s land area.
The G20 was founded in 1999 in response to several world economic crises and has become the primary venue for international economic and financial cooperation.
There is a possibility that the summit could be overshadowed by India and Modi, who has given the event ‘major’ attention.
Update
African Union made permanent member of G20 ‘family’ of countries at the India hosted summit 2023.
Are we failing our children? Closed doors!
CLOSED: ‘How am I meant to get a decent education’?
School and building closures are disrupting our children’s education in the UK. The issues range from asbestos contamination, building material failures, Covid closures and teacher strikes. What the hell?
Digital £ Pound Sterling
The digital pound is a proposed new form of money that would be issued by the Bank of England and backed by the government. It would be similar to a digital banknote, enabling you to use it in-store or online to make payments.
It would not be intended to replace cash, but complement it. The digital pound is also known as digital sterling or Britcoin.
Bank of England and UK Government
The Bank of England and HM Treasury are looking at the idea of a digital pound because they think it might offer a new way to pay, help businesses, build trust in money, and better protect the UK’s financial system. They have published a Consultation Paper, which explores the need for the digital pound and proposes a set of design choices for it. They are also engaging with businesses and communities to get their views on the digital pound.
The digital pound is not a cryptocurrency or cryptoasset. Unlike cryptocurrencies, which have volatile values, the digital pound would be issued by the Bank of England and have a stable value, just like banknotes.
I promise to pay the bearer on demand the sum of £10.00
£10 in digital pounds would always have the same value as a £10 banknote.
‘What’s the point of HS2 if there is no one to run it?’ ‘Beats me… guess we’re stuck with it!’
‘Is this the end of the line’?
Yet more strike action continues to create chaos for travellers
Much of the UK will have no train services on Friday 1st Septemebr 2023 as the latest major strike action takes place.
Members of Aslef, the train drivers’ union, who work at more than a dozen train companies, have walked out and have refused to work.
Up to 20,000 RMT union members at 14 operators will also strike on Saturday in a long-running dispute
Meanwhile, a consultation closing most ticket offices in England ends.
Ticket office closures
Unions and disability groups have also taken action against other proposed working practices in the industry, such as ticket office closures.
Currently, nearly 300 stations in England run by train companies with Department for Transport contracts have a full-time staffed ticket office – 708 are staffed part-time. Under the proposals, most would close.
Ongoing dispute
The UK train strikes are part of an ongoing dispute between the rail unions and the train operators over pay and conditions.
- ASLEF members at 16 rail operators will strike again on Friday, 1st September 2023 and Saturday, 2nd September 2023.
- RMT members at 14 train companies will strike again on 2nd September 2023. This will severely affect the timetables.
Pay dispute and working practices
The rail unions are demanding a pay rise that reflects the rising cost of living, as well as job security and improved working conditions. The train operators say they need to make changes to the ways of working in order to save money and improve efficiency, especially after the pandemic hit their finances hard.
The Rail Delivery Group, which represents the train operators, has offered a 5% pay rise for 2022, but the unions have rejected it as insufficient and conditional on reforms they oppose.
The train strikes have caused significant disruption and frustration for millions of passengers, especially during the peak summer holiday season. The government has urged both sides to resume talks and find a resolution
UK house prices experience biggest yearly decline since 2009
The Nationwide Building Society says house prices are 5.3% lower compared to August last year, in the biggest annual decline since 2009.
Nationwide said the drop represented a fall of £14,600 on a typical home in the UK since house prices peaked in August 2022. It also said higher borrowing costs for buyers had led to a slowdown in activity in the housing market. Mortgage approvals are also about 20% below pre-Covid levels.
After 14 rate increases from the Bank of England – a two year fixed rate mortgage is now touching 6.7%
Since December 2021, the Bank of England (BoE) has raised interest rates 14 times in row in a bid to clamp down on rising inflation in the UK. The bank’s base rate now stands at 5.25%. This has led to lenders raising their mortgage rates, putting increased pressure on homebuyers.
The average two-year fixed mortgage rate on Friday was 6.7%, while the average five-year fix was 6.19%.
Average house prices in the UK peaked at £273,751 in August 2022 but fell to £259,153 last month.
Bitcoin rallies as court rules in favour of Grayscale over the SEC in crypto ETF case
Court rules SEC wrong
The price of bitcoin surged Tuesday 29th August 2023 after the U.S. Court of Appeals ruled that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) was wrong to deny crypto investment giant Grayscale permission to convert its popular bitcoin trust into an ETF.
Bitcoin jumped around 7% following the ruling to $27,852. The move lifted other cryptocurrencies as well as crypto equities higher.
Grayscale
Grayscale’s lawsuit against the SEC has been closely watched by investors and other industry participants as a key catalyst that would shake up a market governed by low volatility and liquidity.
Earlier this month, bitcoin trading volatility fell to its lowest level in more than four years as investors had been waiting on the sidelines for more regulatory clarity on crypto activity .
Several bitcoin futures ETFs have already been approved in the U.S.
Court ruling
‘The denial of Grayscale’s proposal was arbitrary and capricious … The Commission failed to adequately explain why it approved the listing of two bitcoin futures ETPs but not Grayscale’s proposed bitcoin Exchange Trade Product (ETP),‘the court said in the ruling. ‘In the absence of a coherent explanation, this unlike regulatory treatment of like products is unlawful. We therefore grant Grayscale’s petition for review and vacate the Commission’s order‘.
Tuesday’s ruling may increase the chances that the SEC will approve other bitcoin ETF applications, including that of BlackRock, whose filing in late June 2023 drove one of bitcoin’s big rallies this year, as well as Fidelity, Invesco and many others.
A U.S. bitcoin ETF would provide a way to get exposure to bitcoin without having to hold it, which would invite retail and institutional investors as well as wealth managers into the market.
A spokesperson for the SEC said it’s ‘reviewing the court’s decision to determine next steps‘.
‘Today’s decision reaffirms that a bitcoin ETF in the U.S. is a matter of when, not if’, said the global head of asset management at Galaxy, which filed with Invesco for its bitcoin ETF. ‘In order for digital assets to continue to flourish, they must be accessible to all investors. We believe that the ETF structure can enable greater access to and transparency across cryptocurrency investing, and truly help further democratize the asset class‘.
Dark cloud for crypto finally lifting?
The ruling also comes as a relief to many crypto market traders who have been frustrated by the SEC, particularly under Chair Gary Gensler, and its insistence on regulating by enforcement.
The crypto industry has long sought out clarity in rules businesses can apply to establish and build long-lasting, compliant companies. The U.S. regulatory crackdown on crypto in 2023 – which includes SEC enforcements and a lawsuit against the biggest U.S. crypto exchange Coinbase and also its case against XRP Ripple has been a dark cloud over the market.
Lawsuit filed June 2022
Grayscale initiated its lawsuit against the SEC in June 2022 after the agency rejected its application to turn its bitcoin trust, better known by its ticker GBTC, into an ETF. The company decided to pursue the ETF, which would be backed by bitcoin rather than bitcoin derivatives, after the SEC approved ProShares’ futures-based bitcoin ETF in October 2021.
The ruling faced multiple delays but the SEC ultimately rejected the application last summer, citing failure by Grayscale to answer questions related to concerns about market manipulation and investor protections.
Japan Fukushima controversial water release
Japan has started releasing treated radioactive water from the Fukushima nuclear plant into the Pacific Ocean on Thursday 25th August 2023.
This is a controversial decision that has been opposed by China, South Korea, and some Pacific island nations. They fear that the water release will harm the marine environment and human health, and affect seafood exports.
Safe?
Japan says that the water release is safe and necessary for the decommissioning of the plant, which was damaged by a massive earthquake and tsunami in 2011. The water has been treated to remove most of the radioactive substances, except for tritium and carbon-14, which are considered to have low risks. The water will also be diluted to meet the international standards for drinking water before being discharged.
IAEA
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has endorsed Japan’s plan and said that the water release will have a negligible impact on people and the environment. The IAEA will also monitor the water release and verify Japan’s compliance with the safety standards.
30 years
The water release is expected to take about 30 years to complete, and will involve pumping out about 1.34 million tonnes of water from more than 1,000 tanks at the Fukushima site.
UK debt, a perfect storm
Slow-Growing UK Faces Over £2.6 Trillion Debt Pile
£2,600,000,000,000 in debt
The amount the UK owes exceeds GDP for first time since 1961. Inflation-linked bonds mean the UK is paying more than its peers.
From the financial crisis to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the UK has borrowed and spent its way out of every jam. The bill for that is becoming a massive concern for the UK treasury and for the economy.
£2.6 trillion public debt
The UK’s public debt has soared by more than 40% to almost £2.6 trillion ($3.3 trillion) since the pandemic struck, leaving the country owing more than its entire annual economic output for the first time since 1961. A heavy reliance on index-linked bonds, at a time of high inflation, also means Britain will pay more to service the debt.
The high level of debt poses a risk to the UK’s credit rating, which could affect its borrowing costs and fiscal credibility. The three main credit-rating firms are due to update their assessments of the UK over the next four months in 2023, and some analysts are concerned that the UK could face a downgrade, especially after the U.S. lost its AAA status from Fitch.
A downgrade could undermine Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s effort to rebuild Britain’s fiscal reputation after his predecessor, Liz Truss, triggered a bond-market crash in 2022 by promising huge unfunded tax cuts.
Bond sell-off pressure
The pressure on the UK’s finances is also being compounded by a selloff in bonds amid aggressive rate hikes by the Bank of England to quell inflation. The yield on the 10-year benchmark this week rose above 4.70% to its highest since 2008.
The UK bond market is among the developed world’s worst performers this year. The rise in yields could increase the cost of servicing the debt, which is already high due to the UK’s heavy reliance on index-linked bonds that adjust with inflation.
The UK’s economic growth is forecast to remain flat through next year, which limits the scope for reducing the debt through higher revenues or lower spending. The National Health Service is stretched to breaking point and the tax burden is already at a 70-year high. The ONS warned that debt could balloon to more than three times GDP over the next half century without action.
ONS data
According to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the UK’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.2% in the second quarter of 2023 (April to June), following a revised growth of 0.1% in the first quarter of 2023 (January to March). This means that the UK’s GDP growth rate for the whole year of 2023 is estimated to be 0.3%, which is lower than the previous forecast of 0.5%.
ONS data to March 2023
The main factors that contributed to the weak GDP growth in the second quarter were the slowdown in consumer spending, the decline in business investment, and the negative impact of the additional bank holiday in May due to the King’s Coronation. The services sector, which accounts for about 80% of the UK’s economy, grew by only 0.1% in the second quarter, while the production sector grew by 0.7%, and the construction sector fell by 0.2%.
Uncertain outlook in uncertain times
The outlook for the UK’s economy remains uncertain, as it faces several challenges such as high inflation, rising interest rates, a slowing global economy, and the ongoing effects of Brexit and the effects of the war in Ukraine.
ONS data for EU countries
Some economists have warned that the UK faces a ‘very real risk’ of recession due to higher interest rates, which could dampen consumer and business confidence and increase the cost of servicing the debt.
The OECD has projected that the UK’s GDP growth will improve moderately to 1.0% in 2024, but still remain below its pre-pandemic level.
ChatGPT shows left-wing bias according to UK researchers
AI Chatbot ChatGPT reportedly has a political bias
ChatGPT, the popular artificial intelligence chatbot, shows a significant and systemic left-wing bias, UK researchers have found. According to the new study by the University of East Anglia, this includes favouring the Labour Party and President Joe Biden’s Democrats in the U.S.
Concerns about an inbuilt political bias in ChatGPT have been raised before, notably by SpaceX and Tesla tycoon Elon Musk, but the academics said their work was the first large-scale study to find proof of any favouritism.
Lead author o the report reportedly warned that given the increasing use of OpenAI’s platform by the public, the findings could have implications for upcoming elections on both sides of the Atlantic. Any bias in a platform like this is a concern’, he said. If the bias were to the right, we should be equally concerned.
Sometimes people forget these AI models are just machines. They provide very believable, digested summaries of what you are asking, even if they’re completely wrong. And if you ask it ‘are you neutral’, it says ‘oh I am!’ Just as the media, the internet, and social media can influence the public, this could be very harmful. I have personally witnessed incorrect responses from ChatGPT where the AI ‘system’ 100% believed ‘it’ was correct and would not engage in a debate as ‘it’ was right!
How was ChatGPT tested for bias?
The chatbot, which generates responses to prompts typed in by the user, was asked to impersonate people from across the political spectrum while answering dozens of ideological questions. These questions ranged from radical to neutral, with each ‘individual’ asked whether they agreed, strongly agreed, disagreed, or strongly disagreed with a given statement.
Its replies were compared to the default answers it gave to the same set of queries, allowing the researchers to compare how much they were associated with a particular political stance.
Each of the more than 60 questions was asked 100 times to allow for the potential randomness of the AI, and these multiple responses were analysed further for signs of bias.
Dr Motoki described it as a way of trying to simulate a survey of a real human population, whose answers may also differ depending on when they’re asked.
Bias was descovered in the Chatbot repsonses.