President Donald Trump is to begin the biggest gamble of his second term – ‘Liberation Day’ wagering that broad-based global hitting tariffs on imports will instigate a new era for the U.S. economy.
The concern right now is no one outside the administration knows quite how those goals will be achieved, and what will be the price to pay.
Basically, tariffs are a tax on imports and, theoretically, are inflationary. In practice, though, it doesn’t always work that way.
The U.S. economy is showing potential signs of stagflation where growth is slowing, and inflation is proving stickier than expected.
Trump’s Liberation Day is here – we will see what that actually means in practice.
The latest UK borrowing figures, reveal a significant increase in public sector net borrowing. In December 2024, the UK government borrowed £17.8 billion, which is the highest figure for the month for four years.
This amount was reportedly £10.1 billion higher than the same month last year and exceeded the £14.1 billion forecast by most economists.
The reported rise in borrowing was driven by several factors, including increased spending on public services, benefits, debt interest, and capital transfers. The interest payable on central government debt alone was £8.3 billion, nearly £4 billion higher than the previous year.
Additionally, a reduction in National Insurance contributions following rate cuts earlier in 2024 partially offset the increase in tax receipts.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves faces a challenging fiscal environment, with borrowing costs rising due to lower economic growth, higher public sector wages, and increased benefits payments. The unexpected jump in December 2024’s borrowing highlights the difficulties in balancing the budget and maintaining economic stability. The Chancellor’s budget was one of growth, but employer NI hikes have unravelled her ‘growth’ plan.
Despite the rise in borrowing, government bond prices remained relatively stable, suggesting that traders were not overly concerned by the surge. However, the overall fiscal position remains precarious, with public sector net debt estimated at 97.2% of GDP, the highest level since the early 1960s.
The government has pledged to take a hard line on unnecessary spending and to ensure that every penny of taxpayer money is spent productively.
As the fiscal year progresses, the Chancellor will need to navigate these financial challenges carefully to maintain economic stability and growth.
However, it is anticipated next month, following the January tax income boost, figures will appear favourable for the government, albeit temporarily.
On Friday 4th October 2024, the European Union voted to implement definitive tariffs on battery electric vehicles (BEVs) made in China
‘The European Commission’s proposal to levy definitive countervailing duties on imports of Chinese battery electric vehicles has garnered the requisite support from EU Member States to proceed with the imposition of tariffs,‘ stated the EU.
Initially, the EU announced in June its intention to impose higher tariffs on imports of Chinese electric vehicles, citing substantial unfair subsidies that threaten economic harm to European electric vehicle manufacturers.
The EU disclosed specific duties for companies based on their level of cooperation and the information provided during the bloc’s investigation into China’s EV production, which commenced last year. Provisional duties have been in effect since early July.
Following the receipt of ‘substantiated comments on the provisional measures‘ from stakeholders, the European Commission updated its tariff strategy in September 2024.
A spokesperson from China’s Ministry of Commerce indicated that Beijing maintains its stance that the EU’s investigation into China’s electric vehicle industry subsidies has led to predetermined outcomes – suggesting that the EU is fostering unfair competition.
Increase in VAT: Adjusting the Value Added Tax (VAT) rate could generate substantial revenue.
Pension Tax Relief: Limiting pension tax relief to the basic rate of income tax could raise around £15 billion per year. Pension tax relief raid.
Windfall Tax: Increasing the windfall tax on the profits of oil and gas companies could also contribute significantly.
General Tax Increases: N.I., Income Tax, Capital Gains Tax, Inheritance Tax,
Public Sector Efficiency
Improving Productivity: Enhancing public sector productivity by just 5% could deliver up to £20 billion in benefits annually.
New Taxes or Levies
Green Taxes: Introducing or increasing taxes on carbon emissions and other environmental levies could help raise funds while promoting sustainability.
Digital Services Tax: Expanding the scope of the digital services tax to cover more online businesses could also be a potential revenue source.
Electric vehicle tax: new tax bands for electric cars
Spending Cuts
Reducing Public Expenditure: Identifying and cutting down on non-essential public spending could help balance the budget.
Economic Growth
Stimulating Growth: Policies aimed at boosting economic growth, such as investing in infrastructure and innovation, could increase tax revenues indirectly by expanding the tax base. But this will take time to fully materialise.
Each of these measures comes with its own set of challenges and implications, so the government would need to carefully consider the economic and social impacts before implementation.
Black hole?
The Chancellor has recently pointed to a ‘black hole’ in the public finances, referencing the recent uncovering of an ‘unbudgeted’ £22bn overspend in the current tax year following her tenure commencement at No. 11 Downing Street in July.
The reality of this newfound deficit is subject to debate. However, given that the Chancellor has ruled out the possibility of borrowing for day-to-day expenses, it seems she very likely she might be compelled to raise taxes to offset these expenditures.
N.I. and Pension raid?
In its last year, the Conservative government cut taxes by £20 billion by reducing the National Insurance rate. Reversing this cut would be a direct way to increase revenue, taking us back to the financial situation before last November.
Currently, many people receive a 40% tax relief on pension contributions but are taxed at 20% when they withdraw. This ‘inconsistency’ could easily become a target for the Chancellor.
Additionally, employers’ National Insurance contributions are not applied to pension contributions or withdrawals, and individuals can even take a tax-free lump sum from their pension after having received tax relief on their contributions.
Understanding the complexities is not necessary to see that a chancellor in search of extra tax revenue may consider pension contributions as a significant source of additional income.
The UK budget is due on: 30th October 2024 – let’s see just by how much UK taxes are increased – because they will be.
Ireland stands to gain a substantial financial boost following a pivotal ruling by the European Union’s highest court, which requires Apple to pay €13 billion (around $14 billion) in back taxes. Initially resisted by Dublin, this windfall is now seen as a transformative chance for the nation.
The settlement’s roots trace back to 2016 when the European Commission deemed that Apple had received illegal state aid via favorable tax deals with Ireland. After prolonged legal disputes, the EU court’s verdict has concluded the issue, mandating Apple to settle the substantial amount.
The Irish government has devised a strategic plan to capitalise on this unforeseen fiscal advantage. The funds are designated for various key sectors to promote sustained economic growth and societal welfare. A considerable portion is allocated for infrastructure enhancements, including transport network upgrades and sustainable energy initiatives, in line with Ireland’s green economy transition goals.
The windfall will also bolster progress in healthcare and education. Plans are in place to improve healthcare facilities and services, enhancing access and care quality for residents. In education, investments will focus on updating educational institutions, fostering research and innovation, and preparing the workforce with future-oriented skills.
The financial influx also presents a chance to tackle housing deficits, with investments directed towards boosting affordable housing availability and ameliorating living standards nationwide. This comprehensive strategy aims to forge a more equitable and thriving society.
In essence, Ireland’s $14 billion windfall from Apple offers an exceptional opportunity to effectuate considerable improvements across diverse sectors, potentially reshaping the country’s economic and social fabric for generations.
It’s quite remarkable how a fortune from just ONE company can be utterly transformational for an entire country.
As of September 2024, Apple’s market cap sat at around $3.4 trillion. This makes Apple the most valuable company in the world by market cap.
As of September 2024, Apple’s market cap sat at around $3.4 trillion. This makes Apple the most valuable company in the world by market cap.
Just so you know, 14 billion of 3.4 trillion equals about 0.41%.A small drop in a massive financial ocean.
Labour’s proposal to dismantle the UK’s non-dom tax system may lead to an exodus of the ultra-wealthy, as advisors and research bodies have cautioned.
Switzerland, Monaco, Italy, Greece, Malta, Dubai, and the Caribbean are becoming popular relocation destinations, sensing the apprehension among affluent investors.
Meanwhile, London’s super-prime real estate market could experience a decrease in transactions, although this may present opportunities for wealthy U.S. and other global buyers.
Nearly two-thirds (63%) of affluent investors have indicated they would depart from the U.K. within two years or ‘sooner’ if the Labour government proceeds with its intention to abolish the colonial-era tax concession.
Furthermore, 67% stated they would have chosen not to migrate to Britain initially, as per a recent Oxford Economics study evaluating the impact of these plans.
The UK’s non-dom regime, a tax rule with a 200-year history, allows individuals residing in the UK but domiciled elsewhere to not pay tax on foreign income and capital gains for up to 15 years. As of 2023, an estimated 74,000 people enjoyed the status, up from 68,900 the previous year.
Labour last month set out plans to abolish the status, expanding on a pledge set out in its election manifesto
UK chancellor Jeremy Hunt revealed the British ISA as part of the Spring Budget 2024.
The British ISA aims to boost demand for UK businesses and encourage investment in UK-focused assets.
Key Features
Additional Allowance
The British ISA provides a separate £5,000 annual allowance in addition to the existing £20,000 ISA allowance.
Tax Advantages
Like other ISAs, investors in the British ISA will not pay tax on capital gains or income.
Investment Focus
While it’s not yet clear whether the new ISA will be exclusively for UK shares, it is expected to support UK-focused funds and investment trusts.
Eligibility Uncertainty
The inclusion of UK gilts or UK corporate bonds remains uncertain.
Consultation Period
The consultation period for the British ISA runs until June 6, 2024.
Potential Impact – Reviving UK Stock Market
The British ISA aims to revive interest in the UK stock market, which has faced challenges since the Brexit vote in 2016.
Supporting UK Companies
By providing tax-free savings opportunities, the ISA encourages investment in UK businesses.
Fund Industry Support
Fund management firms, including Premier Miton, lobbied for the British ISA’s creation.
Historical Context
The British ISA draws parallels with its predecessor, the personal equity plan (PEP), which focused on UK shares and funds.
ISAs replaced PEPs in 1999.
Conclusion
In summary, the British ISA introduces an additional allowance for UK-focused investments, supporting savers and UK companies alike. Its impact on the stock market and investor sentiment remains to be seen, but it represents a step toward bolstering the UK’s economic landscape
By ensuring that companies are valued fairly, a stronger stock market will facilitate the capital raising process for companies that seek to grow and attract more listings. This will have a positive impact on the economy and employment and is ultimately in everyone’s interest.
Spinning the benefits of a tax cut scenario as Chancellor Jeremy Hunt hints at further tax cuts
The Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, has given strong hints that he wants to cut taxes in the spring Budget.
Mr Hunt reportedly said that countries with lower taxes have more ‘dynamic, faster growing economies.‘ Didn’t Liz Truss say something like that too? But of course, she didn’t ‘cost it out’ in her mini budget apparently – but she also wanted lower taxes for growth none-the-less.
Autumn statement
In the Autumn Statement, the chancellor reduced national insurance for workers by 2% and announced tax relief for businesses. If inflation falls, followed by lower interest rates, Mr Hunt may consider he has scope for further tax cuts.
At the World Economic Forum, in Davos, Switzerland – he was also reported to have said that the: ‘direction of travel’ indicates that economies growing faster than the UK, in North America and Asia tend to have lower taxes. ‘I believe fundamentally that low-tax economies are more dynamic, more competitive and generate more money for public services like the NHS,’ he reportedly said.
It is widely expected that the chancellor will focus on income tax in the upcoming Budget due on 6th March 2024
Lower than expected government borrowing last month has increased the possibility of tax cuts in the Budget, analysts say.
UK Borrowing fell to £7.8bn in December 2023, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) indicated. Interest payments dropped sharply due to a faster than expected decline in inflation. Analysts said the latest figures could give the chancellor more wiggle room for tax cuts.
December’s borrowing figure was £8.4bn less than a year earlier, and the lowest figure for the month since 2019.
Interest payments on government debt fell to £4bn, down by £14.1bn from December 2022.
Are you selling online and making a little extra income?
Well, if you are, as from 1st January 2024 you will now fall foul of UK tax rules if you do not declare the income generated from these sales.
Companies like Etsy, eBay, Vinted, Airbnb etc. are obliged to collect and share details of such transactions with the tax authorities. That will allow HMRC to zero in on anyone who should be declaring the extra income but isn’t.
While HMRC was already able to request information from UK-based online operators, from the start of this year there are new rules that the UK has signed up to in cooperation with the OECD – Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, as part of a global effort to clamp down on tax evasion.
New rules
The new rules require digital platforms to report the income sellers are getting through their site on a regular basis.
It will apply to sales of goods such as second-hand clothes and items that have been handcrafted, but also services such as: food delivery, taxi hire, freelance work and accommodation lets or even renting out your driveway for parking.
Rule summary
Online sellers already paying tax do not need to alter what they are already doing.
Individuals have a £1,000 tax-free allowance for money made through property.
There is also a £1,000 allowance for trading income – for example, if you offer tutoring or gardening, or if you are selling new or second-hand items online.
People earning below those thresholds may not have to fill in a tax return, but should keep records in case they are asked for them.
The information will be shared between countries that have signed up to the OECD tax rules.
The UK government said the new rules would help it ‘bear down on tax evasion’, as sellers on digital platforms would now be treated more like traditional businesses.
Some of the main takeaways from the chancellor’s autumn statement November 2023
National Insurance rate cut from 12% to 10% from 6 January, affecting 27 million people.
The 75% business rates discount for retail, hospitality and leisure firms in England extended for another year.
Class 2 National Insurance – paid by self-employed people earning more than £12,570 – abolished from April.
Class 4 National Insurance for self-employed – paid on profits between £12,570 and £50,270 – cut from 9% to 8% from April.
Full tax break permitting companies to deduct spending on new machinery and equipment from profits – now made permanent.
Funding of £4.5bn to attract investment to strategic manufacturing sectors, including aerospace, green energy, aerospace, life sciences and zero-emission vehicles.
Some £500m over the next two years to fund artificial intelligence (AI) innovation centres.
New premium planning services for England, with faster decision times for major business applications and fee refunds when these are not met.
Defence spending to remain at 2% of national income – a Nato commitment.
Overseas aid spending kept at 0.5% of national income, below the official 0.7% target.
Reaffirms previous commitments made last autumn to provide £14.1bn for the NHS and adult social care in England, as well as an extra £2bn for schools, in both 2023‑24 and 2024-25.
Fuel duty remains 52.95p per litre for petrol and diesel, after the chancellor announced a 5p per litre cut for 12 months in March 2023
State pension payments to increase by 8.5% from April, in line with average earnings.
Claimants in England and Wales deemed able to work who refuse to seek employment to lose access to their benefits and extras like free prescriptions.
UK autumn statement – art illustration of office worker preparing data
Further £1.3bn to help people who have been unemployed for over a year.
National Living Wage – to increase from £10.42 to £11.44 an hour from April.
Funding of £1.3bn over the next five years to help people with health conditions find jobs.
OBR Stats
Independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) expects the economy to grow by 0.6% this year and 0.7% next year, rising to 1.4% in 2025; then 1.9% in 2026; 2% in 2027 and 1.7% in 2028.
Living standards not expected to return to pre-pandemic levels until 2027-28.
Underlying debt forecast to be 91.6% of GDP next year; 92.7% in 2024-25; 93.2% in 2026-27; before declining to 92.8% in 2028-29.(One to watch)
OBR forecasts that inflation – the rate prices are rising – will fall to 2.8% by the end of 2024, before reaching the Bank of England’s 2% target rate in 2025.(One to watch)
The OBR says higher inflation means real value of departmental budgets will be £19bn lower by 2027/28 compared with March 2023 forecasts.
Borrowing forecast to fall from 4.5% of GDP in 2023-24; to 3% in 2024-25; 2.7% in 2025-26; 2.3% in 2026-27; 1.6% in 2027-28 and 1.1% in 2028-29.(One to watch)
Microsoft has said it will contest a U.S. tax authority’s request to pay an additional $28.9 billion (£23.5 billion) in back taxes for the years 2004 to 2013.
The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has been auditing how the firm allocates profits among countries and jurisdictions. Microsoft reportedly said, ‘the issues raised by the IRS are relevant to the past but not to our current practices‘.
Creative accounting?
There have long been concerns that the biggest corporations do not pay enough tax in developed nations. Big tech’ giants have been criticised for reporting lower profits in high-tax countries and higher profits in lower-tax jurisdictions to minimise their tax burden.
Microsoft reportedly said the IRS was seeking an additional tax payment of $28.9 billion plus penalties and interest. The company said it had ‘always followed the IRS’s rules and paid the taxes we owe in the U.S. and around the world‘. It said it believed that any taxes owed after the audit would be reduced by up to $10 billion based on tax laws passed by the former U.S. President.
Scrutiny
This year, Microsoft has also come under scrutiny from other U.S. authorities. In June, it agreed to pay $20m to the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) after the company was found to have illegally collected data on children who had started Xbox accounts.
Other American tech’ firms such as Amazon and Facebook have also faced similar calls to pay more taxes.
It has been suggested Rishi Sunak and Boris Johnson have overseen biggest tax rises since the Second World War
‘Fiscal responsibility’ – code words for ‘cock-up!’
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak have stressed the need for ‘fiscal responsibility’ amid still-high inflation and rising debt costs.
According to the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), by the time of the next general election, taxes will likely have risen to around 37% of national income, which is the highest level since comparable records began in the 1950’s.
The IFS said that this is equivalent to around £3,500 more per household, but it will not be shared equally across income group.
Health and Welfare massive tax burden
The IFS also said that this is not a direct consequence of the pandemic, but rather a result of decisions to increase government spending on health and welfare, and some unwinding of austerity. They predicted that this parliament would mark a decisive and permanent shift to a higher-tax economy.
Other think tanks, such as the Nuffield Foundation, have echoed this view and said that there will be strong pressure in future parliaments to raise taxes further to meet growing demand for public services.
Dissatisfied
Some Conservative MPs have expressed their dissatisfaction with the lack of tax cuts from the government, as they believe that reducing taxes is a key part of the party’s philosophy. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak have stressed the need for fiscal responsibility amid still-high inflation and rising debt costs.
Lurching from one problem to the next
We saw this type of response under George Osborne during the ‘austerity’ period after the financial crisis of 2008. And now again, after Brexit and the pandemic. They were all Conservative governments.
Hunt has reportedly said it would be virtually impossible to cut taxes at the moment – no surprise there then!
Labour has criticised the government for clobbering the general public with tax rises and failing to deliver growth and wages.
