China exports reportedly rose by 12.7% year on year to $309.06 billion in October 2024 – the highest jump since March 2023 when they rose 14.8% according to recent data reports.
Imports, however, declined by a more-than-expected 2.3% in October, according to customs data.
The world’s second-largest economy is facing challenges with weakening domestic consumption and an ongoing property crisis, with exports emerging as a bright spot.
China’s exports increased by 2.4% in September 2024 compared to the previous year when measured in U.S. dollars, and imports saw a rise of 0.3%, customs data showed Monday 14th October 2024
The figures fell short of expectations. China’s exports were predicted to rise by 6% year-on-year in September 2024, measured in U.S. dollars, as per reported analysts’ data. This increase would be less than the 8.7% rise seen in August 2024.
Imports were also projected to grow by 0.9% in September from the previous year, based on analysts’ data, which would be a slight uptick from the 0.5% growth in August 2024.
Exports have been a highlight for China’s economy amidst subdued consumer spending and a downturn in real estate.
According to reported analysis of the official data, China’s exports to the U.S., its biggest trading partner, went up by 2.2% in September year-on-year, while imports from the U.S. saw a 6.7% increase.
In June 2024, China’s imports fell by 2.3% year-on-year in U.S. dollar terms, missing the expected 2.8% growth forecast by analysts.
However, exports rose by 8.6%, surpassing the anticipated 8% growth. This resulted in a 2% increase in year-to-date imports and a 3.6% rise in exports for the first half of the year compared to the same period last year.
Additionally, China’s trade with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) surged by 7.1% in the first half of the year, solidifying ASEAN as China’s largest regional trading partner, followed by the European Union.
Trade with Brazil grew rapidly in the first half of the year, with Chinese exports to the country surging by 24.4%.
China’s exports in May increased more than anticipated, whereas imports fell short of expectations, according to customs data released on Friday 7th May 2024.
Exports increased by 7.6% in May from the previous year, surpassing the analysts’ expectations of 6% growth. Imports, however, increased by 1.8% during that time, missing forecasts of an expected 4% growth.
According to analysts’ calculations based on official data, China’s imports and exports to the U.S. and EU declined during that period. However, trade with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) increased, with a 4.1% year-on-year rise in China’s exports to the region from January to May.
China’s exports to Russia decreased, but its imports from Russia grew by 7.5%. Despite trade tensions with the U.S., China’s exports have remained robust, contributing to the country’s overall economic growth.
According to latest figures the country’s trade fell more sharply than expected in July 2023, as both global and domestic demand receded amid the pandemic and ongoing tensions with the United States.
China’s exports fell by 14.5% in July 2023 from a year ago, the biggest drop since February 2020, while imports dropped by 12.4%, according to Chinese data. This was much worse than the 5% decline in both exports and imports analysts were expecting.
Poor trade performance
Some of the reasons for the poor trade performance are the rising costs of raw materials, the global shortage of semiconductors, the Covid-19 outbreaks in some regions, and the U.S. sanctions on some Chinese companies.
China’s trade with the U.S., its largest trading partner, fell in the first seven months of the year. The trade slump has added pressure on China to provide more support for the economy, which has lost momentum after a strong recovery in late 2020 and early 2021.
China’s trade drop July 2023 more than expected
China’s trade situation is also closely watched by other countries, as it reflects the health of the global economy and demand for goods. Some analysts have warned that China’s trade slowdown could signal a broader weakening of consumer spending in developed economies, which could lead to recessions later this year. China’s trade data also has implications for inflation and monetary policy, as lower import prices could ease inflationary pressures and allow central banks to keep interest rates low.
China’s export to the U.S. and EU down
China’s exports to the U.S. plunged by 23.1% year-on-year in July 2023, while those to the European Union fell by 20.6%, CNBC analysis of customs data showed. Exports to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations fell by 21.4%, according to the data. Chinese imports of crude oil dropped by 20.8% in July from a year ago, while imports of integrated circuits fell by nearly 17%.
China’s imports from Russia fell by around 8% in July 2023 from a year ago, the data showed.
A slowdown in U.S. and other major economies’ growth has dragged down Chinese exports this year. Meanwhile, China’s domestic demand has remained subdued.
Growth areas
Among the few higher-value export categories that saw a significant increase in the first seven months of the year were: cars, refined oil, suitcases and bags. And for imports: paper pulp, coal products and edible vegetable oil were among the categories seeing significant growth in the January to July period from a year ago.