The gross domestic product (GDP) from January to March 2024, grew at an annualised rate of 1.6%, significantly underperforming the projected 2.4%.
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, crucial for the Federal Reserve’s inflation assessments, climbed at an annualised rate of 3.4% for the quarter, marking the largest increase in a year.
Meanwhile, consumer spending rose by 2.5% during the quarter, a decrease from the 3.3% rise in the previous quarter and falling short of the 3% expectation.
The UK is at risk of recession after revised figures indicate the economy shrank between July and September 2023.
A recession is defined as when the economy shrinks for two three-month periods in a row.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which measures the health of the economy, contracted by 0.1% after previous estimates suggested growth has been flat. There was no growth between April and June 2023, after it was first calculated to have risen by 0.2%.
There have been concerns over the UK’s weak economic growth for a while now, but the UK has managed to avoid a recession so far. Whether or not there is a small recession, the bigger picture for analysts is that they expect real GDP growth to remain subdued throughout 2024. However, bear in mind that projections and forecasts do change, as already demonstrated.
Earlier this week, data showed that inflation, which measures the rate of price rises, slowed by more than expected to 3.9% in the year to November 2023, down from 4.6% in the previous month.
The U.S. economy grew even stronger than previously calculated in the third quarter, the result of better than expected business investment and stronger government spending, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Wednesday 29th November 2023.
Gross domestic product (GDP), a measure of all goods and services produced during the three-month period, climbed to 5.2% annualised pace, the department’s second estimate showed. The increase superseded the initial 4.9% figure and was better than the 5% forecast from economists.
Upward revision
Primarily, the upward revision came from increases in non-residential fixed investment, which includes structures equipment and intellectual property. The category showed an increase of 1.3%, which still presented a sharp downward shift from previous quarters. Government spending also helped boost the Q3 estimate, rising 5.5% for the July-through-September 2023 period.
However, consumer spending registered a downward revision, now rising just 3.6%, compared to 4% in the initial estimate.
Inflation
There was some mixed news on the inflation front. The personal consumption expenditures price index, a gauge the Federal Reserve follows closely, increased 2.8% for the period, a 0.1% downward revision.
Corporate profits increased 4.3% during the period, up sharply from the 0.8% gain in the second quarter.
According to the latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the U.S. GDP grew at a 4.9% annual pace in Q3 of 2023, better than expected.
This was the fastest quarterly advance in nearly two years, driven by robust consumer spending, increased inventories, exports, residential investment and government spending.
Challenges
The U.S. economy faced several challenges in the third quarter, such as high interest rates, inflation pressures, and global headwinds, but still managed to overcome them and show strong growth.
However, some analysts expect a slowdown in the fourth quarter and in early 2024, especially if the Federal Reserve implements another interest rate hike and the housing market remains sluggish and if consumer spending shows signs of slowing.
GDP and Inflation
The GDP report also showed that inflation rose 3.7% in September 2023, down from 9.1% in June, but still above the Fed’s 2% target. The Fed is expected to keep its policy tight and may announce a tapering of its bond-buying program next week.
U.K. economy beat expectations with 0.2% growth in the second quarter, boosted by household consumption and manufacturing output, the Office for National Statistics said Friday.
Economists had expected U.K. GDP to level off in the second quarter, after a surprise increase of 0.1% in the first quarter, as the Bank of England’s monetary policy tightening took effect and as persistent inflation began to slow consumer demand.
The economy expanded by 0.5% in June 2023, beating a forecast of 0.2% growth. It follows monthly GDP growth of 0.1% in May and 0.2% in April. However, the strength of the June rise was partially attributed to warm weather, as well as the additional public holiday in May to celebrate the coronation of King Charles III.
Better than expected
GDP was lifted by 1.6% growth in manufacturing and 0.7% in production in the second quarter, while services grew by 0.1%.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) noted strong growth in household and government consumption in terms of expenditure. Both faced price pressures in the quarter, though this moderated from the previous three-month period.
Growth in June 2023 was stronger than expected at 0.5%
Growth in June 2023 was stronger than expected at 0.5%, showing a recovery when the economy lost one working day due to the national holiday in May. June’s warm weather also benefited the construction industry as well as pubs and restaurants. But the economy was impacted by strike action by NHS workers, doctors, railway unions and teachers. However, the figures for the three months and June in particular were better-than-expected.
What does it mean?
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is one of the most important tools for looking at the health of the economy, and is watched closely by the government and businesses. If the figure is increasing, that means the economy is growing and people are doing more work and getting a little bit richer, on average.
But if GDP is falling, then the economy is shrinking which can be bad news for businesses. If GDP falls for two quarters in a row, it is typically defined as a recession.
