Cloud Archives - Taking Stock

August 28, 2024August 28, 2024

How frothy is the AI data centre market for investors?

Nvidia investors have been on a rocket ride to the stars. But recently they have come back down to Earth, and it has become more of a roller coaster ride.

Benefiting significantly from the artificial intelligence surge, Nvidia’s market cap has increased approximately ninefold since late 2022 – a massive market cap gain.

However, after achieving a peak in June 2024 and momentarily claiming the title of the world’s most valuable public company, Nvidia then experienced close to a 30% decline in value over the subsequent seven weeks, resulting in an approximate $800 billion loss in market capitalisation.

Currently, the stock is experiencing a rally, bringing it within approximately 6% of its all-time peak. The chipmaker surpassed the $3 trillion market cap milestone in early June 2024, aligning with Microsoft and Apple. The question remains whether the company can reclaim and sustain that title.

Investors are closely monitoring Nvidia’s forecast for the October quarter, with the company anticipated to report a growth of approximately 75%. Positive guidance would imply that Nvidia’s affluent clients continue to invest heavily in AI development, whereas a lacklustre forecast might suggest that infrastructure investment is becoming excessive.

Should there be any signs of diminishing demand for AI or if a major cloud customer is reducing spending, it could lead to a notable decline in revenue.

July 30, 2024July 31, 2024

Microsoft shares drop on cloud miss as Azure revenue disappoints

Microsoft reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue for Q4

In extended trading on 30th July 2024, the stock experienced a quick decline as attention was drawn to the less-than-expected Azure revenue, despite management’s forecast for growth in the upcoming quarters.

The company’s total revenue saw a 15% increase compared to the previous year.

Despite surpassing earnings and revenue expectations, Microsoft’s shares dropped by up to 7% in extended trading on Tuesday, with investors concentrating on the underwhelming cloud revenue. However, executives offered a positive outlook, anticipating an acceleration in cloud growth during the first half of 2025.

Microsoft one day chart 30th July 2024

Microsoft’s cloud division holds significant interest for investors, as it competes with Amazon Web Services (AWS) and Google in the artificial intelligence (AI) work arena. These three tech giants are pouring substantial resources into enhancing AI capabilities, aiming to attract both startups and established companies as generative AI technology swiftly progresses.

For Amazon, AWS has served as a vital profit centre for the past ten years.

February 19, 2024February 19, 2024

Energy hungry data centre power solution

The use of nuclear reactors for data centres is a controversial and complex topic that has both advantages and disadvantages

Nuclear reactors can provide a reliable, stable, and carbon-free source of electricity for power-hungry data centres, which are essential for the operation of various applications, such as artificial intelligence (AI).

Grid overload

Nuclear reactors can also reduce the dependence on the existing grid, which may be vulnerable to blackouts, fluctuations, or cyberattacks. On the other hand, nuclear reactors require a high initial investment, as well as strict safety and regulatory standards. Nuclear reactors also pose potential risks of radiation, waste disposal, and proliferation. Moreover, nuclear reactors may not be suitable for all locations, as they may face public opposition, environmental concerns, or geopolitical issues.

Small Modular Reactor (SMR)

One of the possible solutions to these challenges is to use small modular reactors (SMRs), which are advanced reactors with about a third of the power generation of a traditional, large nuclear plant. SMRs are designed to be more flexible, scalable, and cost-effective than conventional reactors, as they can be built off-site and transported to the desired location. SMRs can also be integrated with renewable energy sources, such as solar or wind, to create a hybrid system that can balance the power demand and supply.

However, the technology of SMRs is still in its early stages of development and deployment, and there are currently no data centres in the world that use built-in nuclear reactors. Therefore, it remains to be seen whether nuclear reactors will become a common or viable option for future data centres. The decision to use nuclear reactors for data centres should be based on a careful evaluation of the benefits and risks, as well as the alternatives and trade-offs, of each specific case.

It has been calculated that a ‘norma’ data centre (whatever that is), needs 32 megawatts of power flowing into the building. For an AI data centre, it’s closer to 80 megawatts.

AI systems are using all this extra electricity simply because they are doing so much more processing than standard computing. They are chewing through far more data.

As AI continues to develop, so too will the power requirement needed to run these monsters.

November 8, 2023November 8, 2023

Microsoft closes at all-time high

Microsoft ended Tuesday’s trading session at a record high of $360.53, following fresh optimism about growth from a key partner in artificial intelligence (AI). The increase gives the company a market value of about $2.68 trillion.

At a tech event on Monday 6th November 2023, Microsoft’s AI partner, OpenAI, announced a batch of updates, including price cuts and plans to allow people to make custom versions of the ChatGPT chatbot.

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella attended and emphasized that developers building applications with OpenAI’s tools could get to market quickly by deploying their software on Microsoft’s Azure cloud infrastructure.

Microsoft has invested a reported $13 billion in OpenAI, which has granted Microsoft an exclusive licence on OpenAI’s GPT-4 large language model that can generate human-like prose in response to a few words of text.

Chatbot — Fictitious AI robot learning from a digital human online

Last week, Microsoft announced the release of an AI add-on for its Office productivity app subscriptions and an assistant in Windows 11, both of which rely on OpenAI models.

The future is looking bright for Microsoft right now.

November 7, 2023November 7, 2023

IBM pivots to AI – STOCK WATCH

An old well established and trusted tech brand pivoting to AI that has a high dividend yield is IBM, which has been around for more than a century and is known for both its hardware and software products.

IBM is investing heavily in AI, cloud computing, and quantum computing, and has recently acquired several AI start-ups, such as Instana, Turbonomic, and Waeg.

IBM also has a partnership with OpenAI, one of the leading AI research organizations, to provide cloud infrastructure for its AI models.

Investors who love IBM expect the company to grow its earnings by around 10% annually over the next five years. Investors were also impressed with IBM’s dividend yield, which is currently around 4.5%. Dividends are a great way to generate passive income.

IBM is not the only tech company that is pivoting to AI. Google, Microsoft, and Anthropic are competing in the field of generative AI, which can create text, images, music, and more from natural language prompts.

Integrate generative AI

These companies are attempting to integrate generative AI into their products and services, such as search engines, maps, word processors, office applications, chatbots, and more. Generative AI is seen as a game-changer for many industries and applications, and could potentially disrupt the dominance of Big Tech.

Legacy companies can pivot to a platform model, which is a business strategy that connects producers and consumers of value through a digital interface. Platform companies like Facebook, Amazon, Google, and Tencent have created value at stunning rates, and have grown rapidly and own large market shares.

Legacy companies can leverage their existing systems, such as customer relationships, data, and brand recognition, to create platforms that offer impressive and immersive products and services.

Other successful platform pivots are Disney+, which transformed Disney from a media producer to a media platform; Nike+, which connected Nike’s physical products with digital services; and John Deere, which created a platform for precision agriculture.

October 10, 2023October 10, 2023

Cybersecurity

Cybersecurity is a very important and relevant topic in today’s world. It refers to the practice of protecting systems, networks, and programs from digital attacks that can harm individuals and organizations.

Cyberattacks will all have malicious intent, such as accessing, changing, or destroying sensitive information; extorting money from users via ransomware; or interrupting normal business processes.

Cybersecurity aims to prevent or mitigate these attacks by using various technologies, measures, and practices.

There are many types of cybersecurity, depending on the domain or layer of IT infrastructure that needs to be protected.

Critical infrastructure security

This protects the computer systems, applications, networks, data and digital assets that a society depends on for national security, economic health and public safety. For example, the power grid, the water supply, the transportation system, the health care system, etc.

In the United States, there are some guidelines and frameworks for IT providers in this area, such as the NIST cybersecurity framework and the CISA guidance.

Network security

This prevents unauthorized access to network resources and detects and stops cyberattacks and network security breaches in progress. For example, firewalls, antivirus software, encryption, VPNs, etc. Network security also ensures that authorized users have secure access to the network resources they need, when they need them.

Application security

This protects applications from cyberattacks by ensuring that they are designed, developed, tested, and maintained with security in mind. For example, code reviews, vulnerability scanning, penetration testing, secure coding practices, etc. Application security also involves educating users about safe and responsible use of applications.

Cyberattacks will all have malicious intent, such as accessing, changing, or destroying sensitive information; extorting money from users via ransomware; or interrupting normal business processes.

There are many more types of cybersecurity, such as cloud security, endpoint security, data security, identity and access management (IAM), etc. Each type of cybersecurity has its own challenges and solutions.

Companies to watch

Cybersecurity companies such as CrowdStrike, Okta, Zscaler and Palo Alto Networks are valuable assets with businesses willing to pay good money to protect against hackers.

NOTE: Always do your own very careful research – none of these ‘suggestions’ are ‘recommendations’.

Remember: RESEARCH! RESEARCH! RESEARCH!

August 30, 2023December 29, 2023

Nvidia’s stock at record high after Google AI deal

Nvidia shares rose 4.2% Tuesday 29th August 2023 to close at a record high, after the company announced a partnership with Google that could expand distribution of its artificial intelligence technology (AI).

The stock’s bountiful run continued, now up 234% in 2023, making it by far the best performer in the S&P 500. Facebook parent Meta is second in the index, up 148% so far this year.

The record close comes less than a week after the company said quarterly revenue doubled from a year earlier and gave a forecast indicating that sales this period could rise 170% on an annual basis. The day after the better-than-expected earnings report, the stock climbed to a record intraday high of $502.66 before declining later in the afternoon.

Nvidia’s business is booming because its graphics processing (GPU’s) are being gobbled up by cloud companies, government agencies and startups to train and deploy generative AI models like the technology deployed in OpenAI’s ChatGPT as fasta as Nvidia can make them.

NVIDIA stock chart

Nvidia announcment

On Tuesday 29th August 2023, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang appeared at a Google conference to announce an AI agreement between the two companies.

Through the partnership, Google’s cloud customers will have greater access to technology powered by Nvidia’s powerful H100 GPUs.

‘Our expanded collaboration with Google Cloud will help developers accelerate their work with infrastructure, software and services that supercharge energy efficiency and reduce costs’, the Nvidia CEO reportedly said in a blog post.

Nvidia’s GPUs are also available on competing cloud platforms from Amazon and Microsoft.