The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 7.72% on Tuesday 3rd October 2023, according to latest data
Mortgage rates follow loosely the yield on the 10-year Treasury, which has been climbing this week following strong economic data. Rates have not been this high since the end of 2000.
At the beginning of this year, the 30-year fixed rate dropped mortgage to around 6%, creating a short-lived burst of activity in the spring 2023. But it began rising steadily again over the summer months, causing sales to drop, despite strong demand. The current trend appears to be even higher, with the possibility of rates reaching over 8%.
U.S. mortgage rates, which are close to 8% according to some sources. This is a very high level compared to the recent years, and it may have significant implications for the housing market and the economy.
Main points
Some experts believe that rates could reach 8% later by the end of October, and possibly stay at that level for the remainder of the year. Others, however, think that rates may stabilize or decline slightly if the economic growth slows down or inflation eases.
30 year fixed mortgage rate at 7.72%
The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 7.72% as of Oct. 3, according to Mortgage News Daily. This is the highest rate since 2000.
Rates are rising as more economic indicators point to a strong U.S. economy, which increases the likelihood of the Federal Reserve to hike rates further. The 10-year Treasury yield, which closely tracks the mortgage rates, reached 4.8% on Tuesday, the highest level since August 2007.
Hitting 8% will be like crossing a psychological barrier for many buyers, as it will increase their monthly payments and reduce their affordability. It may also dampen the demand for housing, which has already been affected by low inventory and high prices.
Some buyers are already seeing 8% mortgage rates, especially those who have high loan-to-value ratios, high balance-conforming loans, or non-qualified mortgage loans. These could also be borrowers with lower credit scores or non-prime borrowers.
Metro Bank shares have plunged by 25% after reports emerged that the bank is urgently seeking to raise millions to bolster its finances.
The bank is in talks with investors about raising £250m in equity financing and £350m in debt, while asset sales are also being considered to strengthen the lender’s balance sheet.
The bank’s shares have already suffered substantial falls in September after regulators refused to approve a request to lower the capital, or cash, requirements attached to its mortgage business.
It has been reported that the Metro Bank share price has dropped by 70% so far this year.
As of now, it’s unclear whether the bank will be able to secure the funding it needs. As much as £600 million has been muted as need in in some reports.
Is this a worrying sign of worse to come, or just a one-off?
Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) performance on 3rd October 2023.
The Dow fell more than 400 points, turning negative for the year. The main reason for the drop was the surge in U.S. Treasury yields, which reached their highest levels in 16 years.
Higher yields mean higher borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, which could hurt the economic recovery and the housing market.
S&P 500 on 3rd October 2023
Nasdaq on 3rd October 2023
The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained a 0.7% on October 3rd, 2023, as some investors saw an opportunity to buy some of the high-growth stocks that had been under pressure recently.
The stock market has been experiencing some volatility and uncertainty in September and October 2023, as investors fret about inflation, interest rates, and the possibility of a U.S. recession.
Main facts affecting the current stock market
The month of October has produced some severe stock market crashes over the past century, such as the Bank Panic of 1907, the Wall Street Crash of 1929, and Black Monday 1987.
October has also marked the start of several major long-term stock market rallies, such as Black Monday itself and the 2002 nadir of the Nasdaq-100 after the bursting of the dot-com bubble.
The S&P 500 dropped 4.5% in September 2023 and finished the third quarter in the red.
The U.S. Treasury yield curve has been inverted for months – which is a historically strong recession indicator.
The Fed maintained interest rates at the current target range of between 5.25% and 5.5% in September 2023, but signalled that it may need to raise rates again to combat inflation.
The consumer price index gained 3.7% year-over-year in August 2023, down from peak inflation levels of 9.1% in June 2022 but still well above the Fed’s 2% long-term target.
The bond market is currently pricing in an 81.7% chance the Fed will choose not to raise rates again on 1st November 2023.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down at 33002, Tuesday 3rd October 2023.
Stocks fell as investors pulled money from equities and moved it to the hot bond market.
International markets also faced significant turmoil, sending mini shockwaves through global financial centres, which reverberated in equities.
The dollar rose to the highest since December and is heading towards the twelfth positive week in a row.
Uncertainty
Uncertainty in the U.S. political system is having a major affect too. Especially with the ousting of the speaker and the real fear of a government shutdown looming large.
The U.S. Treasury yields are the interest rates that the U.S. government pays to borrow money. The 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields are the most widely followed indicators of the long-term health of the U.S. economy and the expectations of inflation and growth.
10 year yield at 4.80%
According to the latest data, the 10-year Treasury yield surged to 4.80% on Tuesday, 3rd October 2023, which is the highest level since 12th October 2007.
30 year yield at 4.79
The 30-year Treasury yield rose to 4.79% on Monday, 2nd October 2023, which is the highest since 6th April 2010.
The main reasons for the rise in the Treasury yields
The strong U.S. economic data that showed that the labour market remains hot and the manufacturing sector rebounded in September 2023.
The Federal Reserve’s ‘higher for longer’ mantra signalled that the central bank would keep raising rates until inflation is under control.
The reduced demand for safe-haven assets as the U.S. government averted a shutdown over the weekend by passing a short-term stopgap funding measure.
Uncertainty at the heart of the U.S. political system.
The implications of higher Treasury yields
The higher borrowing costs could weigh on the economic growth and consumer spending in the future.
Higher inflation expectations could erode the purchasing power of the fixed-income investors and increase the risk of a bond market sell-off.
The higher interest rate differential could attract more foreign capital inflows into the U.S. dollar and strengthen its value against other currencies.
Gold value has been slipping in recent months of 2023 – here are some of the reasons gold prices fluctuate.
Dynamic market
Gold is a precious metal that is often seen as a safe haven investment and a store of value, but it is also subject to the forces of supply and demand, as well as many other factors that affect its price.
The gold market is complex and dynamic, and the price of gold can change quickly and unpredictably. Therefore, it is important to do your own research and analysis before investing in gold or any other asset.
Always do your research! Remember, RESEARCH! RESEARCH! RESEARCH!
Gold price from 2005 – September 2023
The production costs of gold
The cost of mining, refining, and transporting gold can influence the supply and the price of gold. If the production costs are high, the gold miners may reduce their output or increase their selling price, which can affect the market balance and the gold price.
Money supply
The amount of money in circulation can affect the value of the currency and the inflation rate, which in turn can affect the demand and the price of gold. Generally, when the money supply increases, the currency value decreases and the inflation rate increases, which can boost the demand and the price of gold as a hedge.
Geopolitical stability
The political and economic events around the world can affect the market sentiment and the risk appetite of investors, which can influence the demand and the price of gold. Generally, when there is uncertainty, instability, or conflict, investors tend to seek safe-haven assets such as gold, which can increase the demand and the price of gold.
Jewellery and industrial demand
The demand for gold from the jewellery and industrial sectors can affect the market balance and the price of gold. Jewelry is the largest source of gold demand, especially in countries like India and China, where gold is culturally and traditionally valued. Industrial demand for gold comes from its use in various electronic and medical devices, such as smartphones, computers, and dentistry. The changes in the consumer preferences, the income levels, the technological innovations, and the environmental regulations can affect the demand and the price of gold from these sectors.
Gold price 3rd October 2023
Central bank actions
The actions of central banks around the world can affect the supply and the demand of gold, as well as the value of the currency and the interest rates, which can influence the price of gold. Central banks hold gold reserves as part of their foreign exchange assets, and they can buy or sell gold to diversify their portfolios, to manage their liquidity, or to intervene in the currency markets. Central banks can also affect the price of gold indirectly through their monetary policies, such as setting the interest rates, printing money, or buying bonds, which can affect the inflation expectations, the currency value, and the opportunity cost of holding gold.
Strength of the U.S. dollar
Gold is priced in U.S. dollars in most of the major trading exchanges around the world, so when the dollar rises against other currencies, gold becomes more expensive for foreign investors, reducing the demand for it. The U.S. dollar has been strengthening since, partly due to the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening policy that has raised the interest rates and the attractiveness of U.S. Treasury securities.
Rise of global equities
Gold is often considered a hedge against inflation, currency devaluation, and the failure of other financial assets, but when the stock market is performing well, investors tend to shift their money from gold to equities, seeking higher returns and growth potential. The global stock market has been rallying since the bottom of the Covid-19 pandemic in March 2020, boosted by the roll-out of vaccines, the fiscal stimulus, and the economic recovery.
The Krugerrand
The Krugerrand is a South African coin, first minted on 3rd July 1967
Krugerrand gold coins are a type of bullion coin that were first minted in 1967 by the South African Mint. They are made of 22 karat gold and have a diameter of 32.77 mm and a thickness of 2.84mm. The obverse side features the portrait of Paul Kruger, the former president of the South African Republic, and the reverse side depicts a springbok, the national animal of South Africa. The name ‘krugerrand’ is a combination of ‘Kruger’ and ‘rand’, the currency of South Africa.
Krugerrand gold coins are popular among investors and collectors because they have a high gold content and are easy to trade. They are also legal tender in South Africa, although they do not have a fixed face value.
Decline of inflation expectations
Gold is also seen as a protection against the erosion of purchasing power caused by inflation, but when inflation expectations are low or falling, gold loses some of its appeal as an inflation hedge. The inflation expectations have been declining in recent months, partly due to the easing of supply chain disruptions, the moderation of energy prices, and the fading of the base effects from the previous year.
These are some of the main factors that have been weighing on the gold price lately, but there may be other reasons as well, such as the speculations, the market sentiments, and the geopolitical events that can influence the supply and demand of gold.
It has been suggested Rishi Sunak and Boris Johnson have overseen biggest tax rises since the Second World War
‘Fiscal responsibility’ – code words for ‘cock-up!’
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak have stressed the need for ‘fiscal responsibility’ amid still-high inflation and rising debt costs.
According to the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), by the time of the next general election, taxes will likely have risen to around 37% of national income, which is the highest level since comparable records began in the 1950’s.
The IFS said that this is equivalent to around £3,500 more per household, but it will not be shared equally across income group.
Health and Welfare massive tax burden
The IFS also said that this is not a direct consequence of the pandemic, but rather a result of decisions to increase government spending on health and welfare, and some unwinding of austerity. They predicted that this parliament would mark a decisive and permanent shift to a higher-tax economy.
Other think tanks, such as the Nuffield Foundation, have echoed this view and said that there will be strong pressure in future parliaments to raise taxes further to meet growing demand for public services.
Dissatisfied
Some Conservative MPs have expressed their dissatisfaction with the lack of tax cuts from the government, as they believe that reducing taxes is a key part of the party’s philosophy. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak have stressed the need for fiscal responsibility amid still-high inflation and rising debt costs.
Lurching from one problem to the next
We saw this type of response under George Osborne during the ‘austerity’ period after the financial crisis of 2008. And now again, after Brexit and the pandemic. They were all Conservative governments.
Hunt has reportedly said it would be virtually impossible to cut taxes at the moment – no surprise there then!
Labour has criticised the government for clobbering the general public with tax rises and failing to deliver growth and wages.
The stock market can be very volatile and unpredictable, especially in times of uncertainty and crisis. It seems like investors are reacting to every piece of news, whether it’s good or bad, with fear and panic.
According to some analysts, the main factors that are driving the market turmoil are the rising bond yields, the slowing global growth, the ongoing trade tensions, and the potential fiscal risks. These issues have created a lot of uncertainty and anxiety among market participants, who are looking for signs of stability and direction.
Long-term investing makes sense
Some experts suggest that the best way to deal with the market volatility is to have a long-term perspective, diversify your portfolio, and avoid emotional decisions. They also advise to stay informed, but not to overreact to every headline or rumour.
Remember that the market has gone through many ups and downs in the past and has always recovered over time.
Luddites were a group of workers who protested against the use of machinery that threatened their livelihoods in the early 19th century in Britain. They were not opposed to technology in general, but to the specific machines that were ‘taking away their livelihoods’.
They attacked factories and smashed machines that were replacing their jobs with cheaper and less skilled labour.
BIG tech Luddite comparison – is AI the latest threat?
Some people have compared the Luddites to the modern movements that resist the effects of Big Tech and artificial intelligence (AI) on workers’ lives. They argue that these technologies are creating a new wave of automation that is displacing workers, eroding their rights, and increasing inequality.
They also point out that the Luddites had the support of a majority of English people and eventually led to changes in the law that improved workers’ conditions.
Progress?
However, others have criticized this comparison as inaccurate or misleading. They claim that the Luddites were not successful in stopping technological progress, and that their actions were violent and destructive.
Technology will create new jobs
They also suggest that the Luddite fallacy, which refers to the belief that technological progress causes mass unemployment, has been proven wrong by history. They contend that technology can create new opportunities and benefits for workers, as long as society adapts and regulates it properly.
The question of whether a new modern Luddite rebellion can rise against Big Tech is not a simple one. It depends on how we define Luddites, how we evaluate the impacts of technology, and how we respond to the challenges and opportunities it presents.
The Rosebank oil and gas field is a controversial project that has been approved by the UK government despite the concerns of environmental activists and some politicians.
It is located about 80 miles west of Shetland in the North Sea and is estimated to contain 500 million barrels of oil. It is operated by Equinor, a Norwegian state-owned energy company, with its partners Ithaca Energy and Suncor Energy. The development of the field is expected to cost £6 billion and create 2,000 jobs.
Carbon conflict
It is also expected to produce 200 million tonnes of carbon dioxide over its lifetime, which is equivalent to the annual emissions of 40 million cars.
The approval of the Rosebank field has sparked a debate over the role of fossil fuels in the UK’s energy transition and its commitment to net zero emissions by 2050. Critics argue that the project is incompatible with the UK’s climate goals and that it will undermine its credibility. They also claim that most of the cost of the development will be borne by the taxpayers through tax reliefs and subsidies.
UK not yet ready to turn off the oil and gas
However, some supporters of the project contend that it will provide a reliable source of energy and revenue for the UK, as well as support thousands of jobs in the oil and gas sector. They also point out that the UK still relies on fossil fuels for most of its energy needs and that it will need to import more oil and gas from abroad if it does not develop its own resources.
‘Didn’t expect to see you here again, thought you’d retired’. ‘Yeah, me too!’
They argue that the Rosebank field will be developed with high environmental standards and that it will contribute to the UK’s transition to a low-carbon economy by investing in renewable energy and carbon capture technologies.
Contentious
The Rosebank oil and gas field is a complex and contentious issue that reflects the challenges and trade-offs involved in balancing economic growth, energy security, and environmental protection. It is likely to remain a topic of heated discussion.
The field is expected to start producing oil from 2026
If drilling starts on time, Rosebank could account for 8% of the UK’s total oil production between 2026 and 2030.
Roughly 245 million barrels will be produced in the first five years of drilling, with the remaining being extracted between 2032 and 2051.
Though oil is the main product, the site will also produce gas.
About 1,600 jobs are expected to be created during the peak of construction. Long term, the operation will create 450 jobs.
Will it mean lower energy bills in the UK?
No! Oil and gas from UK waters is not necessarily used here – it is sold to the highest bidder on global markets.
What Rosebank produces will be sold at world market prices, so the project will not cut energy prices for UK consumers.
The Norwegian state oil company Equinor – which is the majority owner of Rosebank – has confirmed this.
Oil also tends to be sent around the world to be refined – the UK does not have the capacity to refine all its own oil-based products.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose Wednesday 27th September 2023, to its highest level in more than 15 years, as traders navigated fears of persistent inflation and higher interest rates for longer than expected.
The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.612%. It had reached 4.566% on Tuesday 26th September 2023, its highest level since 2007.
2 year yield
The 2-year Treasury yield also added 6 basis points to 5.139%.
FED said
Federal Reserve suggested last week that interest rates would go higher still and remain elevated for longer, prompting concerns among investors about what it could mean for the economy.
Credit card losses in the U.S. are rising at the fastest pace since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008.
Goldman Sachs reportedly predicts that credit card losses will continue to climb through the end of 2024 or early 2025 for most issuers. This is unusual because the losses are accelerating outside of an economic downturn.
Unusual trend
The main factors behind this trend are higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve and a surge in spending since the pandemic.
U.S. citizens owe more than $1 trillion on credit cards, a record high, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Credit card defaults, which occur when a borrower fails to repay debt and the lender writes it off, are also projected to increase by 20% year-over-year in 2023.
This could have negative implications for the economy and consumers’ financial well-being.
According to the latest data, 1.00 GBP is equal to 1.22 USD
This means that one British pound can buy 1.22 U.S. dollars at the current market rate. The exchange rate fluctuates depending on various factors such as supply and demand, interest rates, inflation, trade balance, and political stability.
Weak against U.S. dollar
The British pound has been weakening against the U.S. dollar since the Brexit referendum in 2016, when the UK voted to leave the European Union. The uncertainty and instability caused by the Brexit process have reduced the confidence and attractiveness of the British currency in the global market. The U.S. dollar, on the other hand, has been strengthening due to its status as a safe haven and a reserve currency in times of crisis.
In September 2022 the pound fell to its lowest level against the U.S. dollar
Excessive government spending and tax cuts that undermined confidence in the UK economy.
Price caps and record high inflation that eroded the purchasing power of the pound.
The strength of the dollar as a safe haven currency amid global uncertainty.
The prospect of a new Scottish independence referendum that increased political risk.
The impact of the Covid pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict on supply chains and trade.
Artwork of GBP
UK pound closes in on a six month low
September 2022
The pound reached $1.0327 at one point in late September 2022, its lowest since Britain went decimal in 1971. It also fell more than 1% against the euro to about 86.80p, its lowest level since May 2020.
Today, 22nd Septmber 2023
The current exchange rate of 1.22 USD per GBP is near the lowest point in the last 30 and 90 days, which was 1.2383 USD per GBP.
The highest point in the same period was 1.3128 USD per GBP. The average exchange rate in the last 30 days was 1.2563 USD per GBP, and in the last 90 days was 1.2721 USD per GB pound.
UK interest rates have been left unchanged at 5.25% by the Bank of England (BoE).
The decision comes a day after figures revealed an unexpected slowdown in UK nflation in August 2023.
The Bank had previously raised rates some14 times in a row to tackle inflation, leading to increases in mortgage payments, business loans and consumer borrowing. But it also delivered higher savings rates.
The maker of weight-loss drug ‘Wegovy’ has become Europe’s most valuable company, dethroning the French luxury conglomerate LVMH.
Is there an irony here…? Exploitation of the obese, or a genuine attempt to help? It is used in the fight against diabetes too.
It’s a business after all
Wegovy is a brand name for ‘Semaglutide‘, a prescription medicine used for weight loss in obese or overweight adults with other weight-related medical issues. It works by regulating appetite and reducing calorie intake, leading to weight loss and helping with weight management.
Wegovy was launched in the UK on 4th September 2023 and is available on the NHS as an ‘option‘ for weight management in line with NICE guidance, alongside a reduced-calorie diet and increased physical activity. However, only people with the highest medical need may qualify for the drug, as it is in short supply and its use will be restricted – but celebrities have direct access – do they have the ‘highest medical needs’? Of course they do.
Clinical trials
Wegovy has been shown to be effective in clinical trials, achieving up to a 15% reduction in body weight after one year. It has also been found to reduce the risk of a heart attack or stroke in obese people with cardiovascular disease by 20%.
To get Wegovy on the NHS, eligible adults would need a referral to an NHS specialist weight management service, which would usually be made by a GP. Alternatively, Wegovy can be obtained privately, but it may be expensive and not covered by insurance.
Watercolour image of a generic medicine bottle. Wegovy is a brand name for ‘Semaglutide‘, a prescription medicine used for weight loss in obese or overweight adults with other weight-related medical issues.
Shares rose after the Danish pharmaceutical giant, Novo Nordisk, launched the popular drug in the UK.
At the close of trading on Monday, 4th September 2023, the company had a stock market valuation of $428bn (£339bn).
The drug is now available on the National Health Service in the UK and also via private outlets.
Obesity treatment
Wegovy is an obesity treatment that is taken once a week which tricks people into thinking that they are already full, so they end up eating less and losing weight.
Famous personalities such as Elon Musk are among the reported users of the drug, which has gained traction in Hollywood and with the public more widely since it was approved by regulators in the US in 2021.
Wegovy and Ozempic – a diabetes treatment with similar effects – have been described as ‘miracle’ drugs. Would that be a ‘miracle for the user or for the pharmaceutical company – or both perhaps?
Experts warn the drug is not a quick fix nor a ‘substitute for a healthy diet and exercise’.
In trials, users often put weight back on after stopping treatment.
‘Supply restriction as production ramps up’
There has been a global shortage of the drug, so only limited is awailable for the NHS in the UK.
The company said it will continue to restrict global supplies as it works to ramp up manufacturing.
While the findings still have to be fully reviewed, experts agreed the results were potentially significant.
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady in a decision released Wednesday 20th September 2023, while also indicating it still expects one more hike before the end of the year and fewer cuts than previously indicated next year.
That final increase, if realised, would be it for now according to data released at the end of the Fed two-day meeting. If the Fed goes ahead with the move, it would be the twelfth rate hike since policy tightening began in March 2022.
No change priced in
Markets had fully priced in no move at this meeting, which kept the fed funds rate targeted in a range between 5.25%-5.5%, the highest in some 22 years. The rate fixes what banks charge each other for overnight lending but also affects many other forms of consumer debt too.
While the no-hike was expected, there was plenty of uncertainty over where the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), would go from here.
Judging from reports released Wednesday 20th September 2023, the bias appears towards more restrictive policy and a higher-for-longer approach to interest rates.
”I’d like to buy a new car please’. ‘Yes, of course… do you want a… gas, coal, wood, petrol, diesel, vegetable oil, virgin oil, hydrogen, electric, hybrid, pedal, jet, or rice powered one?” ‘Umm, I think I’ll leave it for now thank you’.
We just don’t have the funds, do we?
UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is reportedly planning to water down some of Britain’s climate commitments, saying the country must fight climate change without penalising workers and consumers.
Sunak issued a statement Tuesday in response to a BBC report saying the prime minister is considering extending deadlines for bans on new petrol and diesel cars – currently due in 2030 —- and on new natural-gas home heating.
The news drew dismay from environmental groups, opposition parties and some members of Sunak’s Conservative Party. It broke as senior politicians from the U.K. and around the world gather at the United Nations General Assembly in New York, where Biden and Yellen have placed climate high on the agenda.
Senior Tories who have championed net zero policies are reportedly furious at Sunak’s plans to delay or water down green measures. They warn that the decision will cost the U.K. jobs, inward investment and future economic growth that could have been theirs by committing to the industries of the future.
We won’t save the UK by bankrupting its people – Braverman
Home Secretary Suella Braverman says she backs Rishi Sunak’s expected shift on how the UK gets to net zero carbon emissions.
‘We’re not going to save the country by bankrupting the British people,’ she told BBC Breakfast.
It must be true, I’ve just seen it on the news. Is the UK broke? Is this the real reason for the climate roll-back?
‘We’re not going to save the country by bankrupting the British people’.
I for one am very confused??
Does the UK have the money? Is it a too big-a-burden for the UK tax payer? Can the UK generate enough ‘POWER’ from renewables? The UK needs fossil fuels?
Most of the world still needs fossil fuels!
Are we really ready to switch yet? Renewables and fossil fuels will have to work hand-in-hand for some time yet.
According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the UK’s inflation rate dropped unexpectedly in August 2023 to its lowest level since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which led to sharp rises in energy and food costs which were already on the rise due to the pandemic.
The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 6.7% in the 12 months to August 2023, down from 6.8% in July. The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) rose by 6.3% in the 12 months to August 2023, down from 6.4% in July.
The ONS said that the main factors behind the fall in inflation were lower prices for clothing, footwear, and second-hand cars, partly offset by higher prices for transport services and recreational goods.
UK Inflation 1989 – 2023 (ONS data)
The ONS also said that the inflation rate was still high compared with historical levels, and that it expected it to rise further in the coming months due to increases in energy bills and supply chain pressures.
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said the news showed ‘the plan to deal with inflation is working’. Well Jeremy, your comments are encouraging – if you truly believe a 0.1% fall in inflation is ‘working‘. Where were you when the Bank of England lost control of the ‘2% inflation remit’.
‘Don’t worry – the money is being printed as we speak. Come and get your share now!’
Where were you when the excessive ‘uncontrolled’ government borrowing infected the UK’s economy? With all that ‘free’ money sloshing around the system, what did you really expect would happen..?
Consultants and junior doctors in England are holding their first joint strike in the history of the NHS.
Waiting list
The latest data from NHS England, states the number of people waiting to start routine hospital treatment is at a record high of 7.68 million at the end of July 2023. This is up from 7.57 million in June 2023 and the highest since records began in August 2007.
The waiting list has increased by more than 3 million since February 2020, the last full month before the start of the pandemic. The NHS is facing many different challenges due to the impact of Covid-19 on its services, staff and resources. This data suggests that the waiting list was already at 4 million even before the pandemic hit.
The latest strike action is a major factor now contributing to the NHS waiting list. Some reports suggest that over 850,000 routine operations and procedures have been cancelled so far this year, 2023 due to strike action alone.
Factors that may have contributed to the historical rise in the waiting list
The suspension or reduction of non-urgent care during the peak of the pandemic to free up capacity for Covid-19 patients.
The ongoing infection prevention and control measures that limit the number of patients that can be treated safely in hospitals.
NHS Strike action again, with nearly 8 million waiting in the queue
The staff shortages and burnout that affect the availability and productivity of the workforce.
The increased demand for health services as people seek help for conditions that were delayed or worsened by the pandemic.
Strike action.
The NHS is working hard to tackle the backlog and improve access to care for patients
Increasing funding and capacity for elcare, such as by opening more operating theatres, expanding community services and using the independent sector.
Implementing new models of care, such as virtual consultations, digital triage and shared decision making, to reduce unnecessary referrals and appointments.
Prioritising patients based on clinical urgency and need, rather than waiting time alone, to ensure that those who would benefit most from treatment are seen first.
Supporting staff wellbeing and retention, such as by offering flexible working, training and development opportunities and mental health support.
What about health education?
Government action
The government has also pledged to invest an extra £36 billion over the next three years to help the NHS recover from the pandemic and reform social care. However, some experts have warned that this may not be enough to address the underlying issues that affect the NHS performance and quality, such as workforce planning, public health funding and health inequalities.
How did it get so bad?
Lack of money or management failures? It has to one of these two. Throwing funds at an already badly managed ‘business’ will just amplify the problem allowing even more waste. And as the ‘system’ tackles the problem, more and more people will needlessly continue to suffer.
Fix our health service by fixing the people first!
Sequoia Capital and Andreessen Horowitz, two of Silicon Valley’s most high-profile venture firms, are poised to take a massive hit on their investments in grocery delivery company Instacart, a deal that closed in 2021 as tech stocks were soaring.
In its latest IPO prospectus update, Instacart said it plans to sell shares at $28 – $30 a share, valuing the company at around $10 billion at the top of the range. That’s more than 75% below where Sequoia and Andreessen invested in early 2021. At that time, Instacart sold shares at $125 a pop valuing Instacart at $39 billion.
Valuation plunge
The reason for the valuation collapse is that the U.S. economy reopened after the pandemic, then inflation spiked and the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates, which were stuck near to zero throughout the Covid pandemic.
Borrowed money suddenly became expensive again, and quickly too. Tech’ companies in early stages of development, need access to research and development finance – interest rate increases restricted investment.
Instacart 75% plunge in valuation from original price of $125 per share
Then consumers started shopping again on foot, and with capital costs increasing, investors began demanding that companies find a strong path to profitability.
IPO
Instacart is trying to crack open an IPO market that’s been closed for venture-backed companies for nearly two years, so it won’t be easy. However, the ARM IPO recently may re-adjust that view.
Confidence in Bank of England (BoE) is a measure of how much the public trusts the central bank to control inflation, set interest rates and maintain economic stability.
According to the latest Inflation ‘Attitudes Survey‘ conducted by the Bank of England in August 2023, confidence in Bank of England has plummeted to an all-time low.
Survey
The survey found that only 19% of the respondents were satisfied with the way the Bank of England was doing its job to set interest rates to control inflation, while 40% were dissatisfied. The net satisfaction rate was -21%, which is the lowest since the survey began in 1999.
2% inflation please
The main reason for the low confidence is the high inflation rate that has been persisting in the UK for more than a year. Inflation reached a peak of 11.1% in December 2022, and was still at 6.8% in July 2023, well above the Bank of England’s target of 2%. The Bank of England has raised interest rates 14 times since the end of 2021, from 0.1% to 5.25%, to try to bring inflation down, but this has also increased the cost of borrowing and living for many households and businesses.
Slow
Some critics have argued that the Bank of England (BoE) acted too slowly and too cautiously to raise interest rates when inflation was rising, while others have warned that raising rates too high and too fast could harm the economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic.
The public’s expectations of future inflation are also high, with a median answer of 2.9% for inflation in five years’ time, almost one percentage point higher than the Bank’s target.
Credibility
Confidence in Bank of England (BoE) is important because it affects how people behave in terms of spending, saving, investing, and borrowing.
Bank of England hits all-time confidence low according to survey
Loss of faith
If people lose faith in the central bank’s ability to control inflation and maintain economic stability, they may act in ways that could worsen the situation, such as hoarding money, demanding higher wages, or taking on more debt.
Therefore, it is crucial for the Bank of England to communicate clearly and effectively with the public about its policies and actions, and to restore trust and confidence in its role as an independent and credible institution.
It is also useful to take notice of early warning signs, such as the economic red alert posed by inflation after the pandemic recovery started.
The FTSE 100 is the index of the 100 largest companies listed on the London Stock Exchange by market capitalization. It is one of the most widely used indicators of the UK economy and the performance of British businesses.
The FTSE 100 had its best week of the year in the week ending 15th September. The index closed at 7,711 points on 15th September 2023. This was the highest weekly gain of 2023.
Masayoshi Son says AI to surpass human intelligence and that SoftBank will ‘rule the world’. Oh dear…!
Main points in brief
Masayoshi Son reportedly said AI is capable of helping solve the world’s biggest problems and could potentially surpass the intelligence of humans.
He said he was a ‘big believer’ in AI and that Arm, a chip design company owned by Softbank, was a ‘core’ beneficiary of the AI revolution.
He said AI would supercharge human ability and that Softbank would ‘rule the world’ and win the latest generative-AI race thanks to its heavy investment in startups and its majority stake in Arm.
He also acknowledged that AI posed some threats to humanity if mishandled and that society should regulate it to protect humankind.
Masayoshi Son and SoftBank
The 66-year-old founded SoftBank, which still controls about 90% of Arm Holdings after the IPO, back in 1981 after graduating from the University of California, Berkeley. Forbes estimates his net worth at more than $24 billion, making him the world’s 69th richest person.
Son made his early reputation as an investor in Japan’s mobile phone industry, and went on to become one of the first backers of Yahoo as well as Alibaba. Son continues to serve as the chairman of Arm’s board of directors.
AI does pose some threats to humanity if mishandled, Son said, likening its potential misuse to the dangers of speeding, or drinking alcohol while driving a car. But, more positively, AI can also help solve key world problems like diseases or help mitigate or recover from natural disasters, he reportedly said.
‘AI, society should regulate to protect humankind’, Son said. ‘However, it has more merit than the demerits. So, I think I’m a believer. I’m optimistic that AI is going to solve the issues that mankind couldn’t solve in the past‘.
Eurozone interest rates have been hiked again to a record high by the European Central Bank (ECB).
The bank raised its key rate for the 10th time in a row, to 4% from 3.75%, as it warned inflation was expected to remain too high for too long.
The latest increase came after forecasts predicted inflation, which is the rate prices rise at, would be 5.6% on average in 2023. However, the ECB signalled that this latest hike could be the last for now.
‘The council considers that the key ECB interest rates have reached levels that, maintained for a sufficiently long duration, will make a substantial contribution to the timely return of inflation to the target’, the bank reportedly said. The central bank originally expected inflation to be ‘transitory’.
It added that it expected inflation in the 20-nation bloc to fall to around 2.9% next year and 2.2% in 2025.
As in other parts of the world, the eurozone has been hit by rising food and energy prices that have squeezed household budgets and from the Russia/Ukraine war. Central banks have been increasing interest rates in an attempt to tame inflation and slow rising prices.
More expensive to borrow
The theory behind increasing rates is that by making it more expensive for people to borrow money, the ‘consumer’ will then have less excess cash to spend, meaning households will buy fewer things and then price rises will ease. But it is a balancing act as raising rates too aggressively could cause a recession.
Interest rates in the UK are currently higher than in the eurozone at 5.25%, but UK inflation is also higher at 6.8%, and the Bank of England is expected to raise rates again next week.
Investors gobbled up UK microchip designer Arm Holdings at its U.S. debut on the Nasdaq on 14th September 2023, sending its market value soaring to $60 billion (£48.3 billion).
The shares ended the day worth more than $63 each, after climbing by almost 25% from the high end start of $51 per share set by Arm.
The sale was the biggest initial public offering of the year, raising $4.87 billion for owner Softbank Group.
Despite some concerns surrounding the company’s exposure to risks in China and a potential AI slowdown – the shares soared.
British tech
A star of the British technology industry, Arm designs microchips for devices including smartphones and game consoles. It estimates that some 70% of the world’s population uses products that rely on its chips, including nearly all of the world’s smartphones. And with AI nestling in on the horizon, the future potential for Arm is massive.
Arm stock chart 14th September 2023
Arm said it expects the total market for its chip designs to be worth about $250 billion by 2025, including new growth areas such as data centres and cars.
Legacy
Many of Arm’s royalties come from products released decades ago. About half of the company’s royalty revenue of $1.68 billion in 2022, came from products released between 1990 and 2012.
Bright Future
The future looks bright for Arm but the company is trading at more than 25 times its most recent full year of revenue, and at more than 100 times profit.
And that could be where things get tricky for Arm in the not too distant future. Projections for future profits will be interesting, esecially if it’s to keep up with Nvidia for instance.
