Tag: TSMC

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TSMC’s 35% Revenue Surge Signals the New Centre of Gravity in Global Tech

TSMC revenue surges

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) has delivered a striking 35% year‑on‑year jump in first‑quarter revenue, reaching a record NT$1.13 trillion.

The result underscores just how dramatically the centre of gravity in global technology has shifted towards advanced semiconductor manufacturing, with artificial intelligence now the defining force behind industry growth.

Relentless AI demand

TSMC’s performance is being powered by relentless demand for cutting‑edge chips from major clients such as Apple and Nvidia.

As AI infrastructure spending accelerates worldwide, the company has become one of the few manufacturers capable of producing the most sophisticated processors required for training and running large‑scale models.

March alone saw revenue climb more than 45%, highlighting the strength and urgency of this demand.

Ambition

Analysts suggest TSMC is on track to exceed its already ambitious 30% annual growth target, helped not only by volume but also by reported price increases for its most advanced nodes.

Even as smartphone and PC markets remain uneven, AI‑related orders are more than compensating.

With more companies—from hyperscalers to AI start‑ups—designing their own chips, TSMC’s strategic position looks increasingly unassailable.

Upcoming earnings and ASML’s results next week will offer further clues about the momentum behind the semiconductor sector’s AI‑driven boom.

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AI Crash! Correction or pullback? Something is coming…

AI Bubble concerns

Influential figures and institutions are sounding the AI alarm—or at least raising eyebrows—about the frothy valuations and speculative fervour surrounding artificial intelligence.

Who’s Warning About the AI Bubble?

🏛️ Bank of England – Financial Policy Committee

  • View: Stark warning.
  • Quote: “The risk of a sharp market correction has increased.”
  • Why it matters: The BoE compares current AI stock valuations to the dotcom bubble, noting that the top five S&P 500 firms now command nearly 30% of market cap—the highest concentration in 50 years.

🏦 Jerome Powell – Chair, U.S. Federal Reserve

  • View: Cautiously sceptical.
  • Quote: Assets are “fairly highly valued.”
  • Why it matters: While not naming AI directly, Powell’s remarks echo broader concerns about tech valuations and investor exuberance.

🧮 Lisa Shalett – Chief Investment Officer, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

  • View: Deeply concerned.
  • Quote: “This is not going to be pretty” if AI capital expenditure disappoints.
  • Why it matters: Shalett warns that 75% of S&P 500 returns are tied to AI hype, likening the moment to the “Cisco cliff” of the early 2000s.

🌍 Kristalina Georgieva – Managing Director, IMF

  • View: Watchful.
  • Quote: Financial conditions could “turn abruptly.”
  • Why it matters: Georgieva highlights the fragility of markets despite AI’s productivity promise, warning of sudden sentiment shifts.

🧨 Sam Altman – CEO, OpenAI

  • View: Self-aware caution.
  • Quote: “People will overinvest and lose money.”
  • Why it matters: Altman’s admission from inside the AI gold rush adds credibility to bubble concerns—even as his company fuels the hype.

📦 Jeff Bezos – Founder, Amazon

  • View: Bubble-aware.
  • Quote: Described the current environment as “kind of an industrial bubble.”
  • Why it matters: Bezos sees parallels with past tech manias, suggesting that infrastructure spending may be overextended.

🧠 Adam Slater – Lead Economist, Oxford Economics

  • View: Analytical.
  • Quote: “There are a few potential symptoms of a bubble.”
  • Why it matters: Slater points to stretched valuations and extreme optimism, noting that productivity projections vary wildly.

🏛️ Goldman Sachs – Investment Strategy Division

  • View: Cautiously optimistic.
  • Quote: “A bubble has not yet formed,” but investors should “diversify.”
  • Why it matters: Goldman acknowledges the risks while maintaining that fundamentals may still justify valuations—though they advise caution.
AI Bubble voices infographic October 2025

🧠 Julius Černiauskas and the Oxylabs AI/ML Advisory Board

🔍 View: The AI hype is nearing its peak—and may soon deflate.

  • Černiauskas warns that AI development is straining environmental resources and public trust. He’s pushing for responsible and sustainable AI practices, noting that transparency is lacking in how many models operate.
  • Ali Chaudhry, research fellow at UCL and founder of ResearchPal, adds that scaling laws are showing their limits. He predicts diminishing returns from simply making models bigger, and expects tightened regulations around generative AI in 2025.
  • Adi Andrei, cofounder of Technosophics, goes further: he believes the Gen AI bubble is on the verge of bursting, citing overinvestment and unmet expectations

🧠 Jamie Dimon on the AI Bubble

🔥 View: Sharply concerned—more than most as widely reported

  • Quote: “I’m far more worried than others about the prospects of a downturn.”
  • Context: Dimon believes AI stock valuations are “stretched” and compares the current surge to the dotcom bubble of the late 1990s.

📉 Key Warnings from Dimon

  • “Sharp correction” risk: He sees a real danger of a sudden market pullback, especially given how AI-related stocks have surged disproportionately—like AMD jumping 24% in a single day after an OpenAI deal.
  • “Most people involved won’t do well”: Dimon told the BBC that while AI will ultimately pay off—like cars and TVs did—many investors will lose money along the way.
  • “Governments are distracted”: He criticised policymakers for focusing on crypto and ignoring real security threats, saying: “We should be stockpiling bullets, guns and bombs”.
  • “AI will disrupt jobs and companies”: At a trade event in Dublin, he warned that AI’s ubiquity will shake up industries and employment across the board.

And so…

The AI boom of 2025 has ignited a speculative frenzy across global markets, with tech stocks soaring and investors piling into anything labelled “AI-adjacent.”

But beneath the euphoria, a chorus of high-profile warnings is growing louder. From the Bank of England and IMF to JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon and OpenAI’s Sam Altman, concerns are mounting that valuations are dangerously stretched, capital is overconcentrated, and the narrative is outpacing reality.

Dimon likens the moment to the dotcom bubble, while Altman admits many will “lose money” chasing the hype. Analysts point to classic bubble signals: retail mania, corporate FOMO, and earnings divorced from fundamentals.

Even as AI’s long-term utility remains promising, the short-term exuberance may be setting the stage for a sharp correction.

Whether it’s a pullback or a full-blown crash, the mood is shifting—from uncritical optimism to wary anticipation.

The question now is not whether AI will change the world, but whether markets have priced in too much, too soon.

We have been warned!

The AI bubble will pop – it’s just a matter of when and not if.

Go lock up your investments!

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Trump’s 100% microchip tariff – A high-stakes gamble on U.S. manufacturing

U.S. 100% tariff threat on chips

President Donald Trump has announced a sweeping 100% tariff on imported semiconductors and microchips—unless companies are actively manufacturing in the United States.

The move, unveiled during an Oval Office event with Apple CEO Tim Cook, is aimed at turbocharging domestic production in a sector critical to everything from smartphones to defence systems.

Trump’s vow comes on the heels of Apple’s pledge to invest an additional $100 billion in U.S. operations over the next four years.

While the tariff exemption criteria remain vague, Trump emphasised that firms ‘committed to build in the United States’ would be spared the levy.

The announcement adds pressure to global chipmakers like Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), Nvidia, and GlobalFoundries, many of which have already initiated U.S. manufacturing projects.

According to the Semiconductor Industry Association, over 130 U.S.-based initiatives totalling $600 billion have been announced since 2020.

Critics warn the tariffs could disrupt global supply chains and raise costs for consumers, while supporters argue it’s a bold step toward tech sovereignty.

With AI, automotive, and defence sectors increasingly reliant on chips, the stakes couldn’t be higher.

Whether this tariff threat becomes a turning point or a trade war flashpoint remains to be seen.

Trump has a habit of unravelling as much as he ‘ravels’ – time will tell with this tariff too.

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TSMC’s alleged trade secret breach

Tech breach at TSMC

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), the world’s largest contract chipmaker, on 5th August 2025 has reportedly uncovered a serious internal breach involving its 2-nanometer chip technology, one of the most advanced processes in the semiconductor industry.

🔍 What Happened

  • TSMC detected unauthorised activities during routine monitoring, which led to the discovery of potential trade secret leaks.
  • Several former employees are suspected of attempting to access and extract proprietary data related to the 2nm chip development and production.
  • The company has reportedly taken strict disciplinary action, including terminations, and has initiated legal proceedings under Taiwan’s National Security Act, which protects core technologies from unauthorized use.

🧠 Why It Matters

The alleged leak doesn’t just constitute corporate espionage—it has strategic implications. Taiwan’s National Security Act categorises such breaches under core tech theft, permitting aggressive legal action and severe penalties.

With chip supremacy increasingly viewed as a geopolitical asset, this saga is more than just workplace misconduct—it’s a digital arms race.

  • The 2nm process is a breakthrough in chip design, offering:
    • 35% lower power consumption
    • 15% higher transistor density compared to 3nm chips
  • These chips are crucial for AI accelerators, high-performance computing, and next-gen smartphones—markets expected to dominate sub-2nm demand by 2030.
  • A leak of this magnitude could allow competitors to replicate or leapfrog TSMC’s proprietary methods, threatening its technological edge and market dominance.
  • Moreover, company design secrets are potentially at stake, and this would seriously damage these businesses as their hard work in R&D is stolen.

⚖️ Legal & Strategic Response

  • TSMC has reaffirmed its zero-tolerance IP policy, stating it will pursue violations to the fullest extent of the law.
  • The case is now under legal investigation.

While TSMC’s official line is firm—’zero tolerance for IP breaches’—investors are jittery.

The company’s shares dipped slightly amid concerns about reputational damage and longer-term supply chain vulnerabilities.

Analysts expect limited short-term impact on production timelines, but scrutiny over internal controls may rise.

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Amazon, Intel, Meta, Nintendo, Apple, Snap, Qualcomm and others report – here’s a brief round-up

Reports summary 31st July 2024 -1st August 2024

Amazon offers weak guidance citing Olympics and the Trump assassination attempt as cause (consumers are distracted). However, Amazon’s cloud unit reports 19% revenue growth, topping estimates and a 20% increase in business in Q2. Amazon stocks pull back after guidance update.

Intel endures a 22% share plunge dragging down other global microchip stocks from TSMC, ASML to Samsung. Company to cut 15% of workforce, reports quarterly guidance miss.

Meta shares climb 6% on positive earnings data and good revenue forecast. Zuckerberg enthused over AI and how it’s helping create profits suggesting ‘Meta’s advertising growth is proof that BIG AI spending is already paying off.’ However, Meta’s Reality Labs posts $4.5 billion loss in second quarter.

Nintendo profit falls 55% as sales of its ageing Switch console plunge. Nintendo revenue and profit plunged in Q1 as sales of its ageing Switch console decline. Nintendo sold 2.1 million units of its Switch consoles, down 46% on the year. Investors are seeking news surrounding a successor to the Nintendo Switch console.

Apple sales climbed 5%, topping estimates as iPad and services revenue lift despite ongoing issues with iPhone sales slipping in China. Apple is spending more on AI but remains way behind its peers.

Snap shares plunge more than 20% on weak guidance.

Qualcomm beats estimates as phone microchip sales up 12%.

Samsung Q2 revenue and profit comes in above estimates amid strong AI demand.

AMD jumps 5% as global microchip stocks rally. Data centre sales doubled.

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ASML and AMD shares climb on positive U.S. geopolitical news

U.S. and China microchips

ASML

Shares in the Dutch company ASML soared by around 10% on Wednesday 31st July 2024 following a Reuters report indicating that the firm might be exempt from the broadened export restrictions on chipmaking equipment to China.

Additionally, it was also reported that the U.S. is contemplating an expansion of the foreign direct product rule.

U.S. chip export restrictions to China could exclude allies such as the Netherlands, Japan, South Korea, Israel, Taiwan, Singapore and Malaysia. Taiwan is the home of TSMC, the world’s biggest chip manufacturing plant.

AMD

Shares of global semiconductor companies surged on Wednesday 31st July 2024, lifted by positive earnings within the sector and reports suggesting potential easing of U.S. export restrictions to China.

AMD emerged as one of the standout performers, with its shares climbing over 9% in U.S. premarket trading following a robust second-quarter earnings report.

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Arm reportedly to launch AI chips in 2025 as Softbank plan AI data centres

AI

Arm, with a 90% holding by SoftBank, is reportedly set to establish an AI chip unit with the goal of developing a prototype by spring 2025.

This initiative is aimed at catching up with the booming AI market, currently dominated by Nvidia.

Arm, alongside competitors such as AMD, Intel, and Qualcomm, is accelerating efforts to gain position in the AI sector.

SoftBank is negotiating with contract manufacturers, including Taiwan’s TSMC, to produce the AI chips. Mass production is expected to commence in autumn 2025.

Arm’s shares have surged by nearly 45% this year, bringing its market capitalization to over $113 billion.

The chip designer based in the U.K., plans to create an AI chip unit to develop a prototype by spring 2025.

Discussions are reportedly ongoing with contract manufacturers like Taiwan’s TSMC for the production of the AI chips. It was reported that production is anticipated to start in fall 2025.

Arm is responsible for designing the core architecture for these chips. The company licences its designs to companies including Qualcomm and Nvidia and earning royalty fees from each sale. The company asserts that 99% of high-end smartphones utilize Arm technology.

Ambition

Established by Japanese billionaire Masayoshi Son, SoftBank is heavily investing in AI. The company has new plans to allocate $960 million by the following year to enhance its generative AI computing capabilities. In June 2023, Son expressed SoftBank’s ambition to occupy a leading role in the AI revolution.

Reportedly, SoftBank aims to establish AI data centres equipped with proprietary chips throughout the U.S., Europe, Asia, and the Middle East by 2026.

For the fiscal year concluding in March 2024, SoftBank recorded a 7.24 billion Japanese Yen ($4.6 billion) profit in its Vision Fund.

This was the first profitable year for the principal tech investment division since 2021.