Tag: Tech

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Global stocks indices flying high as new records broken – 12th August 2025

New records for global indices led by U.S. tech

In a sweeping rally that spanned continents and sectors, major global indices surged to fresh record highs yesterday, buoyed by cooling inflation data, renewed hopes of U.S. central bank rate cuts, and easing trade tensions.

U.S. inflation figures released 12th August 2025 for July came in at: 2.7% – helping to lift markets to new record highs!

U.S. Consumer Price Index — July 2025

MetricValue
Monthly CPI (seasonally adjusted)+0.2%
Annual CPI (headline)+2.7%
Core CPI (excl. food & energy)+0.3% monthly, +3.1% annual

Despite concerns over Trump’s sweeping tariffs, the U.S. July 2025 CPI came in slightly below expectations (forecast was 2.8% annual).

Economists noted that while tariffs are beginning to show up in certain categories, their broader inflationary impact remains modest — for now.

Global Indices Surged to Record Highs Amid Rate Cut Optimism and Tariff Relief

Tuesday, 12 August 2025 — Taking Stock

📈 S&P 500: Breaks Above 6,400 for First Time

  • Closing Level: 6,427.02
  • Gain: +1.1%
  • Catalyst: Softer-than-expected U.S. CPI data (+2.7% YoY) boosted bets on a September rate cut, with 94% of traders now expecting easing.
  • Sector Drivers: Large-cap tech stocks led the charge, with Microsoft, Meta, and Nvidia all contributing to the rally.

💻 Nasdaq Composite & Nasdaq 100: Tech Titans Lead the Way

  • Nasdaq Composite: Closed at a record 21,457.48 (+1.55%)
  • Nasdaq 100: Hit a new intraday high of 23,849.50, closing at 23,839.20 (+1.33%)
  • Highlights:
    • Apple surged 4.2% after announcing a $600 billion U.S. investment plan.
    • AI optimism continues to fuel gains across the Magnificent Seven stocks.

Nasdaq 100 chart 12th August 2025

Nasdaq 100 chart 12th August 2025

🧠 Tech 100 (US Tech Index): Momentum Builds

  • Latest High: 23,849.50
  • Weekly Gain: Nearly +3.7%
  • Outlook: Traders eye a breakout above 24,000, with institutional buying accelerating. Analysts note a 112% surge in net long positions since late June.

🇯🇵 Nikkei 225: Japan Joins the Record Club

  • Closing Level: 42,718.17 (+2.2%)
  • Intraday High: 43,309.62
  • Drivers:
    • Relief over U.S. tariff revisions and a 90-day pause on Chinese levies.
    • Strong earnings from chipmakers like Kioxia and Micron.
    • Speculation of expanded fiscal stimulus following Japan’s recent election results.

🧮 Market Sentiment Snapshot

IndexRecord Level Reached% Gain YesterdayKey Driver
S&P 5006,427.02+1.1%CPI data, rate cut bets
Nasdaq Comp.21,457.48+1.55%AI optimism, Apple surge
Nasdaq 10023,849.50+1.33%Tech earnings, institutional buying
Tech 10023,849.50+1.06%Momentum, bullish sentiment
Nikkei 22543,309.62+2.2%Tariff relief, chip rally

📊 Editorial Note: While the rally reflects strong investor confidence, analysts caution that several indices are approaching technical overbought levels.

The Nikkei’s RSI, for instance, has breached 75, often a precursor to short-term pullbacks.

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Technical Signals: Cracks beneath the surface – are U.S. stocks beginning to stumble?

Stock correction?

There are increasingly credible signs that U.S. stocks may be heading into a deeper adjustment phase.

Here’s a breakdown of the key indicators and risks that suggest the current stumble could be more than a seasonal wobble. It’s just a hypothesis, but…

  • S&P 500 clinging to its 200-day moving average: While the long-term trend remains intact, short-term averages (5-day and 20-day) have turned negative.
  • Volatility Index (VIX) rising: A 7.61% surge in the 20-day average VIX suggests growing unease, even as prices remain elevated.
  • Diverging ADX readings: The S&P 500’s ADX (trend strength) is weak at 7.57, while the VIX’s ADX is strong at 45.37—classic signs of instability brewing.

🧠 Sentiment & Positioning: Optimism with Defensive Undercurrents

  • Investor sentiment is bullish (40.3%), but rising put/call ratios and a complacent Fear & Greed Index hint at hidden caution.
  • Historical parallels: Similar sentiment setups preceded corrections in 2021 and 2009. We’re not at extremes yet, but the complacency is notable.

🌍 Macroeconomic Risks: Tariffs, Fed Policy, and Structural Headwinds

  • Tariff escalation: Trump’s recent executive order raised effective tariffs to 15–20%, with new duties on rare earths and tech-critical imports.
  • Labour market weakening: July’s jobs report showed just 73,000 new jobs, with massive downward revisions to prior months. Unemployment ticked up to 4.2%.
  • Fed indecision: The central bank is split, with no clear path on rate cuts. This uncertainty is amplifying volatility.
  • Structural drag: Reduced immigration and R&D funding are eroding long-term growth potential.
  • 🛡️ Strategic Implications: How Investors Are Hedging
  • Defensive sectors like utilities, healthcare, and gold are gaining traction.
  • VIX futures and Treasury bonds are being used to hedge against volatility.
  • Emerging markets with trade deals (e.g., Vietnam, Japan) may outperform amid global realignment.
  • 🗓️ Seasonal Weakness: August and September Historically Slump
  • August is the worst month for the Dow since 1988, and the second worst for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.
  • Wolfe Research reportedly notes average declines of 0.3% (August) and 0.7% (September) since 1990.
  • Sahm Rule: Recession indicator.

Now what?

While the broader market still shows resilience—especially in mega-cap tech—the underlying signals point to fragility.

Elevated valuations, weakening macro data, and geopolitical uncertainty are converging. A deeper correction isn’t guaranteed, but the setup is increasingly asymmetric: limited upside, growing downside risk.

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TSMC’s alleged trade secret breach

Tech breach at TSMC

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), the world’s largest contract chipmaker, on 5th August 2025 has reportedly uncovered a serious internal breach involving its 2-nanometer chip technology, one of the most advanced processes in the semiconductor industry.

🔍 What Happened

  • TSMC detected unauthorised activities during routine monitoring, which led to the discovery of potential trade secret leaks.
  • Several former employees are suspected of attempting to access and extract proprietary data related to the 2nm chip development and production.
  • The company has reportedly taken strict disciplinary action, including terminations, and has initiated legal proceedings under Taiwan’s National Security Act, which protects core technologies from unauthorized use.

🧠 Why It Matters

The alleged leak doesn’t just constitute corporate espionage—it has strategic implications. Taiwan’s National Security Act categorises such breaches under core tech theft, permitting aggressive legal action and severe penalties.

With chip supremacy increasingly viewed as a geopolitical asset, this saga is more than just workplace misconduct—it’s a digital arms race.

  • The 2nm process is a breakthrough in chip design, offering:
    • 35% lower power consumption
    • 15% higher transistor density compared to 3nm chips
  • These chips are crucial for AI accelerators, high-performance computing, and next-gen smartphones—markets expected to dominate sub-2nm demand by 2030.
  • A leak of this magnitude could allow competitors to replicate or leapfrog TSMC’s proprietary methods, threatening its technological edge and market dominance.
  • Moreover, company design secrets are potentially at stake, and this would seriously damage these businesses as their hard work in R&D is stolen.

⚖️ Legal & Strategic Response

  • TSMC has reaffirmed its zero-tolerance IP policy, stating it will pursue violations to the fullest extent of the law.
  • The case is now under legal investigation.

While TSMC’s official line is firm—’zero tolerance for IP breaches’—investors are jittery.

The company’s shares dipped slightly amid concerns about reputational damage and longer-term supply chain vulnerabilities.

Analysts expect limited short-term impact on production timelines, but scrutiny over internal controls may rise.

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Echoes of Dot-Com? Is AI tech leading us into another crash?

Is Wall Street AI tech in a bubble?

Wall Street is soaring on artificial intelligence optimism—but underneath the record-breaking highs lies a growing sense of déjà vu.

From stretched valuations and speculative fervour to market concentration reminiscent of the dot-com era, financial analysts and institutional veterans are asking: are we already inside a tech bubble?

Valuations Defying Gravity

At the heart of the rally are the so-called ‘Magnificent Seven’—mega-cap tech firms like Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple and Alphabet—whose forward price-to-earnings ratios have now surpassed even the frothiest moments of the 1999–2001 bubble.

Apollo Global strategist Torsten Slok has reportedly warned that current AI-driven valuations are more ‘stretched’ than ever, citing metrics that exceed dot-com records in both scale and speed.

Nvidia and Microsoft now sit atop the S&P 500 with a combined market cap north of $8 trillion. Yet much of this valuation is being driven by expected future profits—not current ones.

Bulls argue the fundamentals are stronger this time, but even they admit this rally is fragile and increasingly top-heavy.

A Narrow Rally, Broad Exposure

While the S&P 500 has reached historic highs, the gains are increasingly concentrated among just 10 companies—accounting for nearly 40% of the index’s value.

The remaining 490 firms are moving sideways, or not at all. Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett calls it the ‘biggest retail-led rally in history’, pointing to looser trading rules and margin exposure pulling everyday investors into risky tech plays.

In policy circles, reforms allowing private equity in retirement accounts and easing restrictions on day trading are amplifying volatility.

The Trump administration’s push to deregulate retail trading could worsen systemic fragility if investor sentiment turns.

Signs of Speculation

Meme stocks and penny shares are surging again. Cryptocurrency-adjacent firms are issuing AI-branded tokens.

Goldman Sachs indicators show speculative trading activity at levels only previously seen in 2000 and 2021. Yet merger activity remains robust, and consumer spending is strong—two counterweights that bulls cite as proof the rally may be sustained.

The Core Debate: Hype vs. Reality

Is AI the new internet—or just another tech bubble? It does seem to carry more utility than the early days of the internet did?

  • The Bubble View: Today’s valuations are divorced from earnings reality, driven by retail exuberance and algorithmic momentum rather than solid fundamentals.
  • The Bullish Case: Unlike the dot-com era, many of today’s tech firms are cash-rich, profitable, and genuinely transforming industry workflows.

Wells Fargo’s Chris Harvey reportedly believes the S&P 500 could hit 7,007 by year-end—driven by strong margins in tech and corporate earnings resilience.

But even he acknowledges risks if the AI hype fails to materialise into sustainable profit flows.

Bottom Line

Wall Street may be on the brink of another rebalancing moment. Whether this rally evolves into a crash, correction, pullback or a paradigm shift could depend on investor patience, regulatory restraint—and whether tech firms can actually deliver the future they’re pricing in.

That is the real question!

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Apple improves – with best figures since 2021

Apple accounts Q3

Apple has once again defied expectations, posting a record-breaking $94.04 billion in revenue for its fiscal third quarter ending 28th June 2025.

However, not all segments thrived. iPad revenue dipped to $6.58 billion, and wearables saw a decline to $7.4 billion. Still, Apple’s gross margins expanded to 46.5%, and net profit hit $23.4 billion.

Summary

📈 Record Sales Apple made $94.04 billion this quarter, its best performance since 2021. That’s a 10% jump from last year.

📱 Best-Selling Product iPhones were the star—bringing in $44.58 billion, up over 13%. Macs also did well, with $8.05 billion in sales.

💼 Services Boom Apple’s apps, subscriptions, and digital content made $27.42 billion, a new high.

📉 Weaker Spots iPad sales fell to $6.58 billion, and wearables (like AirPods and Apple Watch) dropped to $7.4 billion.

💰 Profits & Payouts Apple earned $23.43 billion in profit and will pay shareholders a $0.26 dividend on 14th August.

🌍 Big Changes To avoid tariff issues, Apple is shifting production to places like India and Vietnam. It spent $800 million on tariffs this quarter, with more expected.

🧠 Looking Ahead Apple is going big on AI, with over 20 new features and a smarter Siri on the horizon.

Apple one-year share price chart

Apple one-year share price chart
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China reportedly concerned about security of Nvidia AI chips

U.S. and China AI chips concern

China has reportedly voiced concerns about the security implications of Nvidia’s cutting-edge artificial intelligence chips, deepening the tech cold war between Beijing and Washington.

The caution follows increasing scrutiny of semiconductors used in defence, infrastructure, and digital surveillance systems—sectors where AI accelerators play an outsized role.

While no official ban has been announced, sources suggest that Chinese regulators are examining how Nvidia’s chips—known for powering generative AI and large language models—might pose risks to national data security.

At the core of the issue is a growing unease about foreign-designed hardware transmitting or processing sensitive domestic information, potentially exposing it to surveillance or manipulation.

Nvidia, whose H100 and A800 series dominate the high-performance AI landscape, has already faced restrictions from the U.S. government on exports to China.

In response, Chinese tech firms have been developing domestic alternatives, including chips from Huawei and Alibaba, though few match Nvidia’s sophistication or efficiency.

The situation highlights China’s larger strategy to reduce reliance on American technology, especially as AI becomes more integral to industrial automation, cyber defence, and public services.

It also underscores the dual-use dilemma of AI—where innovation in consumer tech can quickly scale into military applications.

While diplomatic channels remain frosty, the market implications are heating up. Nvidia’s shares dipped slightly on the news, and analysts predict renewed interest in sovereign chip initiatives across Asia.

For all the lofty aspirations of AI making the world smarter, it seems that suspicion—not cooperation—is the current driving force behind chip geopolitics.

As one observer quipped, ‘We built machines to think for us—now we’re worried they’re thinking too much, in all the wrong places’.

Nvidia reportedly denies there are any security concerns.

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Microsoft joins Nvidia in the $4 trillion Market Cap club

Microdift and Nvidia only two companies in exclusive $4 trillion market cap club

In a landmark moment for the tech industry, Microsoft has officially joined Nvidia in the exclusive $4 trillion market capitalisation club, following a surge in its share price after stellar Q4 earnings.

This accolade achieved on 31st July 2025 marks a dramatic shift in the hierarchy of global tech giants, with Microsoft briefly overtaking Nvidia to become the world’s most valuable company. But for how long?

The rally was fuelled by Microsoft’s aggressive investment in artificial intelligence and cloud infrastructure. Azure, its cloud platform, posted a 39% year-on-year revenue increase, surpassing $75 billion in annual sales.

The company’s Copilot AI tools, now boasting over 100 million monthly active users, have become central to its strategy, embedding generative AI across productivity software, development platforms, and enterprise services.

Microsoft’s transformation from a traditional software provider to an AI-first powerhouse has been swift and strategic. Its partnerships with OpenAI, Meta, and xAI, combined with over $100 billion in planned capital expenditure, signal a long-term commitment to shaping the future of AI utility.

While Nvidia dominates the hardware side of the AI revolution, Microsoft is staking its claim as the platform through which AI is experienced.

This milestone not only redefines Microsoft’s legacy—it redraws the map of pure tech power and reach the company has around the world.

This has been earned over decades of business commitment.

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Are investors saying it’s time to move on from tariffs and if so to what effect on the markets?

Tariffs and the Markets

It looks like investor sentiment is shifting away from obsessing over tariffs—though not because they’ve disappeared.

Instead, there’s a growing sense that tariffs may be settling into a predictable range, especially in the U.S., where President Trump signalled a blanket rate of 15–20% for countries lacking specific trade agreements.

Here’s how that’s playing out

🌐 Why Investors Are Moving On

  • Predictability over Panic: With clearer expectations around tariff levels, markets may no longer treat them as wildcards.
  • Muted Market Reaction: The recent U.S.-EU trade deal barely nudged the S&P 500 or European indexes after moving the futures initially, signalling tariffs aren’t the hot trigger they once were.
  • Economists Cooling Expectations: Revisions to tariff impact estimates suggest future trade deals might not generate outsized optimism on Wall Street.

📈 Effects on the Markets

  • Focus Shift: Investors are turning to earnings—particularly from the ‘Magnificent Seven’ tech giants—and macroeconomic data for momentum.
  • Cautious Optimism: While stocks haven’t rallied hard, they’re not dropping either. Traders seem to be waiting for a new catalyst, like U.S. consumer strength or signs of a bull phase in certain indexes.
  • Geopolitical Undercurrents: A new deadline for Russia to reach a peace deal and threats of ‘secondary tariffs’ could still stir volatility, depending on how global partners react.

So, in short tariffs aren’t gone, but they’ve become background noise. Investors are tuning in to the next big signals.

If you’re keeping an eye on retail, tech earnings, or commodity flows, this shift could have ripple effects worth dissecting.

Market moving events, other than tariffs

DateEvent/CatalystMarket Impact Potential
July 30Meta earnings + possible stock split📈 High (tech sentiment)
July 31Fed meeting📈📉 High (rate guidance)
Aug 1U.S.–EU tariff milestone, not flashpoint📉 Moderate (sector recalibration)
July 22U.S. AI Action Plan (released)📈 Unclear (dependent on execution
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What is Neocloud?

Neocloud

In tech terms, a neocloud is a new breed of cloud infrastructure purpose-built for AI and high-performance computing (HPC).

Unlike traditional hyperscale cloud providers (like AWS or Azure), neoclouds focus on delivering raw GPU power, low-latency performance, and specialised environments for compute-intensive workloads.

🧠 Key Features of Neoclouds

  • GPU-as-a-Service (GPUaaS): Optimised for training and running large AI models.
  • AI-native architecture: Designed specifically for machine learning, deep learning, and real-time inference.
  • Edge-ready: Supports distributed deployments closer to users for faster response times.
  • Transparent pricing: Often more cost-efficient than hyperscalers for AI workloads.
  • Bare-metal access: Minimal virtualisation for maximum performance.

🏗️ How They Differ from Traditional Clouds

FeatureNeocloudsHyperscale Clouds
FocusAI & HPC workloadsGeneral-purpose services
HardwareGPU-centric, high-density clustersMixed CPU/GPU, broad service range
FlexibilityAgile, workload-specificBroad but less specialised
LatencyUltra-low, edge-optimizedHigher, centralized infrastructure
PricingUsage-based, transparentOften complex, with hidden costs

🚀 Who Uses Neoclouds?

  • AI startups building chatbots, LLMs, or recommendation engines
  • Research labs running simulations or genomics
  • Media studios doing real-time rendering or VFX
  • Enterprises deploying private AI models or edge computing

Think of neoclouds as specialist GPU clouds—like a high-performance race car compared to a family SUV.

Both get you places, but one’s built for speed, precision, and specialised terrain.

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Wall Street surges: S&P 500 breaks 6300 as tech optimism outpaces tariff tensions

Record highs!

The S&P 500 closed above 6,300 for the first time in history on Monday 21st July 2025, while the Nasdaq Composite notched yet another record, finishing at 20,974.17.

Investor enthusiasm for upcoming tech earnings has eclipsed broader concerns over looming global tariffs, fuelling a rally in major indexes.

Despite marginal losses in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 0.38% while the S&P 500 climbed 0.14%, buoyed by gains in heavyweights like Meta Platforms, Alphabet, and Amazon.

With over 60 S&P 500 companies having reported so far this earnings season, more than 85% have exceeded expectations, according to FactSet.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp at new record highs 21st July 2025

redo the charts side by side and correct the S&P 500 value
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp at new record highs 21st July 2025

Alphabet shares advanced over 2% ahead of Wednesday’s results, and Tesla headlines the ‘Magnificent Seven’ group expected to drive the bulk of earnings growth this quarter. And not necessarily for the right reason.

Analysts reportedly expect the group to deliver 14% growth year-on-year, far outpacing the remaining S&P constituents’ average of 3.4%.

S&P 500

Despite tariff tensions simmering — with the U.S. setting a 1st August deadline for levy enforcement — investor sentiment remains bullish.

Bank of America estimates Q2 earnings are tracking a 5% annual increase, suggesting resilience amid geopolitical headwinds.

Strategists warn of potential volatility, as earnings surprises or policy shifts could spark swift market reactions.

Still, some analysts see space for further upside, projecting a potential S&P climb to 6,600 before any meaningful pullback.

As the tech titans prepare to report, all eyes are on whether optimism can keep the rally alive — or if tariffs will return to centre stage.

From FANG stocks, MAG 7 stocks to AI – the tech titans just keep giving.

But when will it overload?

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S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 hit new all-time high!

New All-time highs!

The U.S. stock market surged into July 2025 with a wave of optimism, as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both hit fresh all-time highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average continued its upward climb.

The S&P 500 closed at 6279, marking its fourth record close in five sessions, and the Nasdaq 100 soared to 22867, fueled by strength in AI and semiconductor stocks.

S&P 500 YTD chart

Nasdaq 100 YTD chart

Driving the rally was a stronger-than-expected June 2025 jobs report, which revealed 147,000 new positions added and an unemployment rate dipping to 4.1%.

This labour market resilience tempered expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut, but bolstered investor confidence in the economy’s momentum.

Tech giants like Nvidia and Microsoft led the charge, with Nvidia nearing a $4 trillion market cap amid surging demand for AI infrastructure.

Datadog spiked after being added to the S&P 500, and financials like JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs hit lifetime highs.

The Dow, while slightly trailing its tech-heavy peers, posted steady gains and now hovers near its own record territory.

With trade optimism rising and President Trump’s tax-and-spending bill passed, Wall Street enters the holiday weekend riding a wave of bullish sentiment.

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U.S. markets surge as S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new highs

New highs U.S. markets

In a remarkable show of investor confidence, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both reached new all-time highs on 30th June 2025.

The markets were buoyed by optimism around easing inflation, resilient corporate earnings, and renewed enthusiasm for the tech sector, especially AI.

The S&P 500 climbed to a record close of 6205, while the Nasdaq soared 1.2% to finish at 22679 marking its fourth consecutive record-breaking session.

S&P 3-month chart

S&P 3 month chart

Traders pointed to stronger-than-expected economic data and dovish commentary from the Federal Reserve as catalysts that reignited appetite for risk.

Tech giants led the charge, with chipmakers and AI-related firms once again at the forefront.

Nvidia, now the world’s most valuable publicly traded company, gained over 2%, while Apple, Microsoft, and Alphabet also notched solid gains.

The technology-heavy Nasdaq has been particularly responsive to momentum in artificial intelligence and next-generation computing, driving its meteoric rise in recent months.

Nasdaq 100 3-month chart

Nasdaq 100 3-month chart

From April 2025 Trump tariff melt-down to new highs in June 2025

Beyond tech, sectors such as consumer discretionary and industrials also saw modest gains, suggesting a broadening of the rally.

Analysts now debate whether this marks the beginning of a sustainable expansion or a potential overheating of equities.

Meanwhile, Treasury yields held steady, and oil prices ticked higher, signalling confidence in continued global demand.

With earnings season on the horizon, market watchers are closely monitoring corporate guidance to gauge whether valuations can justify further upside.

For now, though, the bulls are clearly in control – and Wall Street is basking in green.

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Palantir now among 10 most valuable U.S. tech companies

Palantir stock up!

Palantir Technologies has officially joined the ranks of the top 10 most valuable U.S. tech companies, marking a significant milestone in its growth trajectory.

The data analytics and artificial intelligence firm saw its stock surge 8%, pushing its market valuation to $281 billion, surpassing Salesforce.

Founded in 2003 by Peter Thiel and CEO Alex Karp, Palantir has long been known for its government contracts and defense-related software solutions.

Its recent success is largely attributed to a booming government business, which grew 45% last quarter, including a $178 million contract with the U.S. Army.

Despite its impressive market cap, Palantir remains a relatively small player in terms of revenue compared to its peers. Investors are paying a premium for its stock, which currently trades at 520 times trailing earnings, far exceeding industry averages.

Analysts have raised concerns about its valuation, questioning whether its rapid rise is sustainable in the long term.

Palantir’s ascent reflects the growing influence of AI-driven data analytics in both commercial and governmental sectors.

As it continues to expand, the company faces the challenge of proving its financial fundamentals can support its lofty valuation.

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Are we underestimating the impact of tariffs on S&P 500 earnings growth?

Asleep

As global trade tensions escalate, many investors and analysts are questioning whether markets are too complacent about the long-term effects of tariffs on corporate earnings.

While some argue that businesses have adapted to protectionist policies, others warn that the S&P 500’s earnings growth could face significant headwinds.

Tariffs: A hidden threat to profit margins

Tariffs increase costs for companies reliant on imported goods and materials. Businesses must either absorb these costs, pass them on to consumers, or find alternative suppliers – each option presenting challenges.

According to Goldman Sachs, an additional 5% tariff could reduce S&P 500 earnings by 1-2%.

A 100% tariff would equate to around 10-20% reduction in the S&P 500 – and that’s correction territory.

Retailers and manufacturers are particularly vulnerable

Companies like Best Buy, Walmart, and Target rely on imports, and higher tariffs could suppress profit margins or lead to higher consumer prices, potentially dampening demand.

Market sentiment vs. economic reality

Despite concerns, Wall Street has remained relatively optimistic. A recent 90-day tariff pause between the U.S. and China has boosted investor confidence, leading firms like Goldman Sachs and Yardeni Research to raise their S&P 500 targets.

This optimism may be short-lived if tariffs resume or escalate

Sector-specific risks

Certain industries are more exposed than others

Technology: Supply chain disruptions and higher costs for components could reduce profit margins.

Consumer Discretionary: Higher prices on imported goods could weaken consumer spending.

Industrials: Increased costs for raw materials could slow growth and investment.

The bigger picture: long-term economic impact

Beyond immediate earnings concerns, tariffs could stifle innovation, reduce global competitiveness, and slow economic growth.

Citi analysts estimate that aggressive tariffs could cut S&P 500 earnings growth by 2-3%.

A false sense of security?

While markets have bounced back from initial tariff shocks, the long-term effects remain uncertain.

Investors should closely monitor trade policies, sector-specific risks, and corporate earnings reports to assess whether the S&P 500’s growth trajectory is truly secure – or dangerously fragile.

Time will tell – but the S&P 500 is vulnerable to pressure right now!

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Stock markets see three-day recovery as U.S. tech boost offsets trade worries – but for how long?

Tech gains

Global markets have shown resilience in the past three days, rebounding from recent downturns as technology stocks rally amid cautious optimism.

The boost in investor confidence follows strong earnings reports from major tech firms, highlighting their ability to weather economic uncertainty.

However, lingering concerns about international trade tensions raise questions about how sustainable this recovery truly is.

Technology stocks have led the charge, with companies in artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and semiconductor production posting better-than-expected growth figures.

Investors have flocked to these sectors, hoping that innovation will drive forward profitability even amid broader market volatility.

This renewed enthusiasm has helped offset concerns over ongoing global trade disputes, which have led to tariffs and economic slowdowns in key sectors such as manufacturing and consumer goods.

Yet, beneath this recovery, risks persist. Geopolitical uncertainties, including unresolved trade negotiations between major economies, continue to cast a shadow over financial markets.

Inflationary pressures, alongside tightening monetary policies by central banks, also threaten to cool investor enthusiasm. Analysts warn that without concrete progress on trade agreements; the rebound may be short-lived.

As investors weigh the competing forces of technological optimism and trade anxieties, the market remains in a delicate balance.

The question remains: Is this recovery a sign of renewed growth, or merely a temporary respite before further economic turbulence?

With the next wave of financial reports and policy decisions on the horizon, market makers will be closely monitoring whether the tech sector’s momentum can sustain broader economic confidence – or whether trade headwinds will ultimately pull markets back into uncertainty again.

Tech gains ground again


Stocks jumped Thursday 24th April 2024 thanks to strong gains in Mega Cap tech names.

The S&P 500 ended up 2.03%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added 2.74%.

The S&P 500 index was able to exit correction territory, ending at least 10% above its recent low set in the wake of President Donald Trump’s 2nd April 2025 ‘liberation day’ tariffs.

For the S&P 500 to maintain its rapid exit from correction territory – it now has to witness Trump’s tariff walk-back and the ‘cooling’ of a potential Fed fight.

Trump seems to be the first to have ‘blinked’ on his self-imposed tariffs suggesting the tariffs are too high and will not go any higher – thy are high enough!

China has reportedly said there are no ‘ongoing’ trade talks?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged the other two indexes but still added 1.23% and retook the 40,000 for the first time since 15th April 2025.

 Japan’s Nikkei 225 up almost 2% and leading gains.

Alphabet shares climb after better than expected results


Alphabet reported stronger-than-expected first-quarter growth on Thursday 24th April 2025.

Alphabet’s search and advertising units are still showing strong growth despite AI competition heating up, according to its first-quarter earnings report.

The company’s overall revenue grew 12% year-on-year, higher than the 10% Wall Street expected.

Shares rose more than 5% in after-hours trading. 

However, Alphabet reportedly indicated to expect ‘slight headwind’ to ads business this year.

Intel also posts results beat, but warns of tariff impact


Intel reported first-quarter results on 24th April 2025 that beat analysts’ estimates but also reportedly issued disappointing guidance. 

Second-quarter revenue will come in below estimates due to elevated uncertainty driven by the macro environment, the company warned.

Intel was reported saying that President Donald Trump’s tariffs and retaliation from other countries had increased the likelihood of a U.S. recession.

Big tech gains drive markets but the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariffs remain.

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World’s largest sovereign wealth fund reports $40 billion loss

Wealth

Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, the largest in the world, has reported a first-quarter loss of $40 billion, largely due to a downturn in the technology sector.

The fund, managed by Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM), saw its value drop to 18.53 trillion kroner by the end of March 2025, with 70% of its investments in equities, which recorded a 1.6% loss.

CEO Nicolai Tangen attributed the decline to significant market fluctuations, particularly in tech stocks, which have faced recent sell-offs. The fund holds major stakes in Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla, and Microsoft, all of which have experienced volatility.

Additionally, currency movements played a role, with the Norwegian krone strengthening against key currencies, contributing to an 879 billion kroner (around $84.5 billion) decrease in the fund’s value.

Despite the losses, NBIM maintains a diversified portfolio, with fixed-income investments returning 1.6% and unlisted real estate yielding 2.4% gains.

This downturn follows a record $222 billion profit in 2024, driven by the AI boom, highlighting the fund’s exposure to tech sector fluctuations.

As global markets remain uncertain, NBIM continues to navigate economic shifts while managing Norway’s oil and gas revenues.

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Tech driven sell-off gained at pace as Nasdaq dropped 3% and Dow Jones down 700 points

Tech in the red

The stock market experienced another sharp Trump tariff related downturn Wednesday 16th April 2025, driven by a tech-heavy sell-off continuing to rattle investors.

The Nasdaq Composite plunged by 3%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed nearly 700 points, marking one of the most significant declines in recent months.

Concerns over tariffs and inflation were amplified by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks about the tariff uncertainty, which highlighted the challenging economic landscape.

Tech stocks bore the brunt of the sell-off, with semiconductor companies like Nvidia and AMD leading the decline. Nvidia’s announcement of a $5.5 billion quarterly charge related to export restrictions on its chips to China added to the sector’s woes.

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF dropped over 4%, reflecting broader uncertainty in the industry.

Powell’s comments on tariffs exacerbated market fears, as he warned of potential stagflation—a scenario where inflation rises while economic growth slows.

This sentiment was echoed across trading floors, with investors grappling with the implications of ongoing trade tensions and restrictive policies.

As the market inches closer to bear territory, the focus remains on navigating these turbulent times.

The sell-off underscores the fragility of investor confidence and the pivotal role of technology in shaping market dynamics

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Tech stocks propel market rally amid Trump’s tariff pause

Stocks move back up

On Monday 14th April 2025, the stock market experienced a notable mini rally, driven by the tech sector’s resurgence following a weekend announcement of a temporary tariff pause.

President Trump’s decision to exempt smartphones, computers, and other electronics from steep tariffs provided a much-needed reprieve for the industry, sparking optimism among investors.

Major tech companies like Apple, Nvidia, and Amazon saw significant gains, with Apple shares surging by 7.5%. The Nasdaq Composite, heavily weighted with tech stocks, climbed 1.9%, while the S&P 500 rose 1.5%.

This rally marked a stark contrast to the volatility of the previous week, where tariff uncertainties had sent shockwaves through the market.

The tariff pause, although temporary and restricted to 20%, helped to alleviate immediate concerns about rising costs for consumers and businesses.

Importers were spared from choosing between absorbing higher expenses or passing them on to customers. This relief was particularly impactful for companies reliant on Chinese manufacturing, as the exemptions covered a wide range of tech products.

Market analysts noted that the rally was not just a reaction to the tariff news but also a reflection of the tech sector’s resilience.

Despite facing challenges earlier in the year, tech companies have continued to innovate and adapt, maintaining their position as a driving force in the U.S. and world economies.

However, the rally’s sustainability remains uncertain. The administration’s mixed messages about future tariffs have left investors cautious.

While Monday’s gains were encouraging, the broader market continues to grapple with the unpredictability of trade policies.

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OpenAI closes largest private tech deal on record

Tech deal

OpenAI on Monday 31st March 2025 announced it had closed its $40 billion funding round, the most ever raised by a private tech company.

The deal values OpenAI at $300 billion, including the new capital.

The round includes $30 billion from SoftBank and $10 billion from a syndicate of investors.

OpenAI is now more valuable than Chevron.

The generative AI market is projected to exceed $1 trillion in revenue within the next decade. Companies such as Google, Amazon, Anthropic, and Perplexity are rapidly unveiling new products and features as competition to develop ‘AI agents’ intensifies.

The future is AI!

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Dow closed 700 points lower Friday 28th March 2025 as inflation and tariff fears worsen

Dow down

Stocks sold off sharply on Friday 28th March 2025, pressured by growing uncertainty on U.S. trade policy as well as a grim outlook on inflation

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 715 points at 41,583. The S&P 500 lost 1.97% to close 5,580 ending the week down for the fifth time in the last six weeks. The Nasdaq Composite plunged 2.7% to 17,322.

Shares of several technology giants also fell putting pressure on the broader market. Google-parent Alphabet lost 4.9%, while Meta and Amazon each shed 4.3%.

This week, the S&P 500 lost 1.53%, while the 30-stock Dow shed 0.96%. The Nasdaq declined by 2.59%. With this latest losing week, Nasdaq is now on pace for a more than 8% monthly decline, which would be its worst monthly performance since December 2022.

Dow Jones one-day chart (28th March 2025)

Dow Jones one-day chart (28th March 2025)

Stocks took a leg lower on Friday after the University of Michigan’s final read on consumer sentiment for March 2025 reflected the highest long-term inflation expectation since 1993.

Friday’s core personal consumption expenditures price index also came in hotter-than-expected, rising 2.8% in February and reflecting a 0.4% increase for the month, stoking concerns about persistent inflation.

Economists had reportedly been looking for respective numbers of 2.7% and 0.3%. Consumer spending accelerated 0.4% for the month, below the 0.5% forecast, according to fresh data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The market is getting squeezed by both sides. There is uncertainty about reciprocal tariffs hitting the major exporting sectors like tech alongside concerns about a weakening consumer facing higher prices

Trump’s tariffs push will hit the U.S. harder than Europe in the short term, it has been reported.

Japan’s Nikkei enters correction as Trump’s tariff assault drives sell-off in Asia markets

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China’s position on open-source artificial intelligence (AI) is upending the global AI race

AI

China’s embrace of open-source artificial intelligence (AI) is revolutionising the global AI landscape, challenging traditional notions of innovation and competitiveness in this rapidly evolving field.

Traditionally, the AI sector has been dominated by proprietary models and closed-source systems, particularly in the U.S.

However, China has made a strategic pivot towards open-source initiatives, driven by trailblazers like the AI startup DeepSeek.

DeepSeek’s R1 model, released earlier this year, has become a symbol of China’s open-source movement. Distributed under the permissive MIT licence, the R1 model allows unrestricted use, modification and distribution.

This approach has disrupted traditional business models by democratising access to cutting-edge AI tools. Companies from tech giants like Baidu and Tencent to emerging players like ManusAI have followed suit, releasing their own open-source models and fostering a collaborative environment for AI innovation.

This shift is seen by some as China’s ‘Android moment’ in AI – a reference to the impact of Google’s open-source Android operating system on the mobile app ecosystem.

The move towards open-source has enabled rapid cost reductions, increased accessibility, and accelerated product development. Chinese firms have leveraged these advantages to narrow the perceived technological gap with the U.S., with some analysts suggesting that the disparity has shrunk from years to mere months.

DeepSeek

Despite these advancements, the open-source approach also raises questions about intellectual property, security, and sustainable business models.

While it has catalysed innovation, it remains to be seen whether open-source strategies can sustain long-term competitiveness against well-funded proprietary systems.

China’s open-source embrace exemplifies a bold shift in AI strategy, emphasizing collaboration and accessibility over exclusivity.

This paradigm shift could redefine global dynamics in artificial intelligence, fostering a more inclusive and innovative future for the industry.

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Nvidia sales grow 78% on AI demand – gives strong guidance

AI

Nvidia recently reported its Q4 results, showcasing impressive growth driven by strong demand for AI technology.

The company achieved a record quarterly revenue of $39.3 billion, marking a 78% increase from the previous year.

This growth was primarily fuelled by the success of Nvidia’s Blackwell AI supercomputers, which saw billions of dollars in sales in their first quarter.

The data centre segment, which constitutes the bulk of Nvidia’s revenue, also performed exceptionally well, generating $35.60 billion, up 16% from the previous quarter. Nvidia’s adjusted earnings per share for Q4 were $0.89, surpassing analysts’ expectations of $0.84.

Looking ahead, Nvidia provided strong guidance for Q1, forecasting revenue of $43 billion, which exceeds market expectations of $42.05 billion. The company also projected a gross margin of 70.60% for the upcoming quarter.

The first-quarter forecast indicates a year-over-year growth of approximately 65%, a deceleration from the 262% annual growth recorded in the same period the previous year.

Nvidia’s CEO, Jensen Huang reportedly highlighted the rapid advancements in AI technology and the company’s successful ramp-up of Blackwell AI supercomputers as key drivers of this growth.

Despite facing competition from Chinese AI firms like DeepSeek, Nvidia remains optimistic about the demand for its AI chips.

The company’s robust performance and positive outlook signal continued growth and innovation in the AI sector.

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China’s AI vs U.S. AI – competition heats up – and that’s good for business – isn’t it?

DeepSeek AI

The escalating AI competition between the U.S. and China has taken a new turn with the emergence of DeepSeek, a Chinese AI startup that has introduced a low-cost AI model capable of rivaling the performance of OpenAI’s models.

This development has significant implications for data centres and the broader technology sector.

The rise of DeepSeek

DeepSeek’s recent breakthrough involves the development of two AI models, V3 and R1, which have been created at a fraction of the cost compared to their Western counterparts.

The total training cost for these models is estimated at around $6 million, significantly lower than the billions spent by major U.S. tech firms. This has challenged the prevailing assumption that developing large AI models requires massive financial investments and access to cutting-edge hardware.

Impact on data centres

The introduction of cost-effective AI models like those developed by DeepSeek could lead to a shift in how data centers operate.

Traditional AI models require substantial computational power and energy, leading to high operational costs for data centers. DeepSeek’s models, which are less energy-intensive, could reduce these costs and make AI technology more accessible to a wider range of businesses and organizations.

Technological advancements

DeepSeek’s success also highlights the potential for innovation in AI without relying on the most advanced hardware.

This could encourage other companies to explore alternative approaches to AI development, fostering a more diverse and competitive landscape. Additionally, the open-source nature of DeepSeek’s models promotes collaborative innovation, allowing developers worldwide to customise and improve upon these models2.

Competitive dynamics

The competition between DeepSeek and OpenAI underscores the broader U.S.-China rivalry in the AI space. While DeepSeek’s models pose a limited immediate threat to well-funded U.S. AI labs, they demonstrate China’s growing capabilities in AI innovation.

This competition could drive both countries to invest more in AI research and development, leading to faster technological advancements and more robust AI applications.

Broader implications

The rise of DeepSeek and similar Chinese and other AI startups could have far-reaching implications for the global technology sector.

As AI becomes increasingly integrated into various industries, the ability to develop and deploy AI models efficiently will be crucial.

Data centres will need to adapt to these changes, potentially investing in more energy-efficient infrastructure and exploring new ways to support AI workloads.

Where from here?

DeepSeek’s emergence as a significant player in the AI race highlights the dynamic nature of technological competition between the U.S. and China.

While the immediate impact on data centres and technology may be limited, the long-term implications could be profound.

As AI continues to evolve, the ability to innovate cost-effectively and collaborate across borders will be key to driving progress and maintaining competitiveness in the global technology landscape.

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Microsoft’s Quantum Leap: The Majorana 1 Chip

Quantum Physics

Microsoft has unveiled a new chip called Majorana 1 that it says will enable the creation of quantum computers able to solve ‘meaningful, industrial-scale problems in years, not decades’.

What is Microsoft’s Majorana 1?

It is the latest development in quantum computing – tech which uses principles of particle physics to create a new type of computer able to solve problems ordinary computers cannot.

Microsoft has announced a game-changing development in the world of quantum computing: the Majorana 1 chip. This revolutionary chip integrates eight topological quantum bits (qubits), setting a new standard for stability and resistance to environmental interference.

Microsoft. The new Majorana 1 chip

The Majorana 1 chip is built on a unique combination of indium arsenide, a semiconductor, and aluminum, a superconductor. This cutting-edge design enables the chip to create a topological state, a new form of matter that encodes information in a way that is inherently noise-resistant. This means that the Majorana 1 chip can maintain its quantum state longer, making it more reliable for complex computations.

What sets the Majorana 1 chip apart is its use of topoconductors, a new class of materials developed by Microsoft’s researchers over nearly two decades. These materials provide a high level of error protection, which is essential for practical quantum computing applications. The Majorana 1 chip is a significant step toward the ultimate goal of creating quantum computers with millions of qubits, capable of solving complex industrial and societal problems.

While the Majorana 1 chip is still in the research phase and not yet available for commercial use, it represents a monumental leap forward in quantum technology. Microsoft’s commitment to advancing quantum computing is evident in the substantial investment of time and resources required to develop this groundbreaking chip.

In summary, the Majorana 1 chip is poised to transform the landscape of quantum computing, offering a more stable and reliable platform for future innovations. This development marks a pivotal moment in the quest for practical and scalable quantum computing solutions.

What is Quantum computing?

Quantum computing is a revolutionary technology that uses the principles of quantum mechanics to process information in a fundamentally different way than classical computers, allowing for exponentially faster calculations in certain tasks.

It leverages qubits, which can represent multiple states simultaneously, enabling complex problem-solving and data analysis beyond the capabilities of traditional computing.

Microsoft says powerful quantum computers will be a reality in years not decades.

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Musk’s xAI releases new Grok 3 AI

xAI Grok AI

Elon Musk’s AI company, xAI, has recently released its latest AI model, Grok 3.

This new AI model is designed to be significantly more powerful and capable than its predecessor, Grok 2.
  • Enhanced Capabilities: Grok 3 boasts 10 times more computing power than Grok 2 and has been trained on an expanded dataset, including court case filings.
  • Reasoning Models: Grok 3 includes reasoning models that can carefully analyze and fact-check information before providing responses. This helps in avoiding common pitfalls of AI models.
  • Benchmark Performance: Grok 3 has outperformed other leading AI models, including OpenAI’s GPT-4o and DeepSeek’s R1, on various benchmarks such as AIME (math questions) and GPQA (physics, biology, chemistry problems).
  • New Features: The Grok app now includes a ‘DeepSearch’ feature that scans the internet and xAI’s social network, X, to provide summarised responses to user queries.
  • Subscription Plans: xAI has introduced a new subscription plan called SuperGrok, which offers additional reasoning capabilities and unlimited image generation.

Grok 3 is being hailed as the ‘smartest AI on Earth’ by Musk, and it’s expected to have a significant impact on various industries.

Definition

Grok is a neologism (a newly coined word or expression), referenced by Robert A. Heinlein for his 1961 science fiction novel Stranger in a Strange Land. It means to understand something so deeply that you become one with it.

Grok is a term used in computer programming to mean to ‘profoundly understand something‘, such as a system, a language, or an algorithm.

Less woke

Grok, the company previously reportedly said, is modelled on ‘The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy’. 

It is supposed to have ‘a bit of wit, a rebellious streak’ and it should answer the ‘spicy questions’ that other AI might dodge, according to a statement from xAI.

I wonder if it has been modelled on Elon Musk?

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Chinese tech giant Baidu to release next-generation AI model soon as DeepSeek leads Chinese AI tech

AI

China’s Baidu reportedly plans to release the next generation of its artificial intelligence model in the second half of this year, according to information recently reported.

The planned update comes as Chinese companies race to develop innovative AI models to compete with OpenAI and other U.S. based companies.

Baidu was the first major Chinese tech company to roll out a ChatGPT-like chatbot called Ernie in March 2023.

However, despite initial momentum, the product has since been eclipsed by other Chinese chatbots from large tech companies such as Alibaba and ByteDance, as well as startups.