Britain’s jet fuel problem is the predictable result of a long, quiet erosion of refining capacity colliding with a geopolitical shock and decades of under investment.
The country now imports three times more kerosene than it produces, and the Middle East crisis has exposed just how thin those supply lines have become.
A system built on shrinking refineries
The UK once had 18 refineries; today it has just four. Closures at Lindsey and Grangemouth last year removed two critical plants, including Scotland’s only kerosene supplier.
The remaining refineries — Fawley, Humber, Pembroke and Stanlow — supply most domestic needs but cannot meet jet fuel demand.
Output has fallen 41% since 2000, driven by poor investment returns, high carbon costs, and the government’s push toward electrification reducing demand for other fuels.
This leaves Britain structurally dependent on imports for diesel and, crucially, kerosene.
The kerosene dependency
Jet fuel demand is unusually high because of Heathrow’s role as a global hub. In 2024, the UK was the second‑largest jet fuel consumer in the OECD, behind only the U.S.
Yet domestic production covers only a fraction of that. Britain reportedly imported around 3.1 times more kerosene than it produced in 2024.
And the sources of those imports are concentrated: 60% come from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait, making the UK acutely exposed to any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.
The real vulnerability: almost no stockpiles
Britain holds just one month’s worth of jet fuel reserves, far lower than most advanced economies. When Middle Eastern supply is threatened, the UK has no buffer.
European alternatives exist — notably the Netherlands and Antwerp — but prices have already doubled, and airlines are preparing to cut capacity.
The bigger picture
This is not a sudden crisis but the culmination of two decades of under‑investment, policy drift and over‑reliance on global markets.
Jet fuel is simply the first commodity where the structural weakness has become impossible to ignore.
The UK needs to get a grip!
A ‘systemic’ jet fuel shortage is brewing in Europe if the U.S. led Iran war crisis isn’t resolved soon.