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Gold rushes to a new all-time high

Gold high!

Gold prices have soared to unprecedented levels, reaching a new all-time high of $2,585 per ounce

This surge is driven by a mixture of economic and geopolitical factors that have heightened investor interest in the precious metal.

One of the primary catalysts for this rise is the anticipation of a significant interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Recent economic data indicating a slowdown in the U.S. economy has led to expectations of monetary easing, which in turn has weakened the dollar. As a result, gold, which is priced in dollars, has become more attractive to investors seeking a safe haven.

In addition to economic factors, ongoing geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation concerns have further bolstered gold’s appeal. With inflation eroding the value of fiat currencies, investors are turning to gold as a hedge against currency devaluation. The metal’s historical role as a reliable store of value during times of uncertainty continues to drive demand.

Market analysts are now speculating whether gold could reach the $3,000 mark, given the current trajectory and market conditions. As the global economic landscape remains volatile, gold’s allure as a safe-haven asset is likely to persist, potentially pushing prices even higher in the coming months.

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UK High Street woes continue as 38 shops reportedly close every day

Closing down

In the first half of this year, pharmacies, pubs, and banks accounted for half of the closures on Britain’s High Streets, according to data. A total of 6,945 stores have shut down in 2024, averaging 38 closures per day

Taking new store openings into account, the net closure rate stands at 12 stores per day, a slight increase from the previous year.

Research by accountancy firm PwC reportedly indicates that each week, an average of 18 pharmacies, 16 pubs, and nine banks closed from January to June 2024.

In contrast, only three convenience stores and one café chain have opened, underscoring the significant transformations occurring in town centres.

The previous year recorded a net closure rate of 11 stores per day.

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U.S. PPI wholesale prices rose 0.2% in August 2024

U.S. PPI data

In August 2024, wholesale prices saw an increase that was roughly in line with expectations, marking the final inflation data point before the Federal Reserve’s anticipated interest rate cut due on 18th September 2024

The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced on Thursday 12th September 2024 that the producer price index (PPI), which measures the prices received by producers for goods and services for final demand, increased by 0.2% for the month, matching the consensus estimate.

Excluding food and energy, the PPI experienced a 0.3% increase, slightly above the 0.2% consensus estimate. This core increase persisted even when trade services were removed from the calculation.

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UK says data centres are critical infrastructure and are designated as important as the power grid and the NHS

Critical data centres UK

UK data centres are set to be classified as critical national infrastructure (CNI), aligning them with sectors such as emergency services, finance, healthcare, and utilities

This classification will ensure they receive additional government support during major incidents like cyber-attacks, IT outages, or severe weather, to reduce disruption.

Data centres, large warehouses filled with extensive computer banks, are the backbone of services like AI applications, data processing, and streaming. Despite facing criticism for their energy and water usage, the new Labour government supports the industry, with Technology Secretary Peter Kyle referring to data centres as ‘the engines of modern life.’

Currently, the UK recognises 13 sectors as critical national infrastructure, a list last revised nine years ago with the addition of space and defence.

The 13 Critical National Infrastructure Sectors

  1. Chemicals
  2. Civil Nuclear
  3. Communications
  4. Defence
  5. Emergency Services
  6. Energy
  7. Finance
  8. Food
  9. Government
  10. Health
  11. Space
  12. Transport
  13. Water

British Technology Minister Peter Kyle announced on Thursday 12th September 2024 that UK data centres will be designated as ‘Critical National Infrastructure’ (CNI). This status, typically reserved for essential national sectors like nuclear power, provides data centre operators with a direct communication channel to the government for threat preparation and response.

Furthermore, the government has expressed support for a proposed £3.75 billion data centre by UK company DC01UK in Hertfordshire, England, which is projected to be the largest in Europe upon completion.

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The AI Race between China and the U.S.

AI development in China and U.S.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has become a pivotal battleground in the technological race between China and the United States.

“AI is expected to become a crucial component of economic and military power in the near future,” Stanford University’s Artificial Intelligence Index Report 2023 stated.

Both countries are significantly investing in AI research and development, striving to achieve a leading role in this revolutionary sector. This post looks at the major figures in China’s AI scene, their progress, and their comparison with their American counterparts.

China’s AI Landscape

China’s AI aspirations are propelled by a number of significant technology firms, each forging their own AI models and applications.

Baidu: Often referred to as the ‘Google of China,’ Baidu leads in AI development. Its premier AI model, ERNIE (Enhanced Representation through Knowledge Integration), fuels the Ernie Bot, a chatbot aimed to compete with OpenAI’s ChatGPT. Baidu asserts that ERNIE 4.0 matches GPT-4’s capabilities, demonstrating sophisticated understanding and reasoning abilities.

Alibaba: Alibaba’s AI model, Tongyi Qianwen (commonly known as Qwen), is a comprehensive set of foundational models adept at a range of tasks, from generating content to solving mathematical problems. Select versions of Qwen are open-source, enabling developers to utilize and modify them for various uses. Alibaba has announced that Qwen models are in use by over 90,000 enterprise clients.

Tencent: The Hunyuan model from Tencent is a prominent component of China’s AI landscape. Offered through Tencent’s cloud computing division, Hunyuan is tailored to facilitate a broad spectrum of applications, encompassing natural language processing and computer vision.

Huawei: In spite of considerable obstacles stemming from U.S. sanctions, Huawei persists in AI innovation. The firm has created its own AI processors, like the Kunlun series, to diminish dependence on international technology. Huawei’s AI features are incorporated into a diverse array of products, including smartphones and cloud solutions.

Comparison to the U.S.

The U.S. continues to be a dominant force in AI, with leading companies such as OpenAI, Microsoft, Google, Anthropic and Meta spearheading advancements.

Generative AI: U.S. firms have advanced significantly in generative AI, with OpenAI’s GPT-4 and Google’s Gemini at the forefront. These models excel in creating text, images, and videos from user inputs. Although Chinese models like ERNIE and Qwen are strong contenders, the U.S. maintains a slight lead in capabilities and market penetration.

Semiconductor Design: The U.S. leads the semiconductor design industry, vital for AI progress. U.S. companies command an 85% global market share in chip design, crucial for AI model training and system operation. China’s dependence on imported semiconductors is a notable obstacle, but there are ongoing efforts to create homegrown solutions.

Research and Innovation: Both nations boast strong AI research sectors, yet the U.S. edges out slightly in generating state-of-the-art AI products. U.S. tech giants frequently introduce AI breakthroughs to the market, with Chinese firms quickly gaining ground.

Government Support: The Chinese government ardently backs AI advancement, enacting strategies to spur innovation and lessen foreign tech reliance. Such support has spurred China’s AI industry’s rapid expansion, positioning it as a strong rival to the U.S.

Conclusion

The competition in AI development between China and the U.S. is escalating, as both countries achieve significant breakthroughs. Although the U.S. maintains a marginal lead in some respects, China’s swift advancement and state backing indicate that the disparity might keep closing. The quest for AI dominance by these nations is set to influence the worldwide technological and innovative landscape profoundly.

As of September 2024, it is estimated that China’s AI development is approximately nine months behind that of the U.S.

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In August 2024 – U.S. consumer prices increased by 0.2% with core inflation exceeding expectations

U.S. CPI statistics

As anticipated in the U.S., prices rose in August 2024, while the annual inflation rate fell to its lowest point since February 2021, according to a Labor Department report on Wednesday 11th September 2024.

This development likely now paves the way for a Federal Reserve interest rate reduction next week but maybe by only 0.25% and not the 0.50% some pundits have predicted.

The consumer price index, which measures a wide array of goods and services costs throughout the U.S. economy, rose by 0.2% for the month, matching the consensus, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This increase brought the year-on-year inflation rate to 2.5%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from July 2024 and slightly below the 2.6% prediction.

Nevertheless, the core CPI, which omits the more fluctuating food and energy prices, saw a 0.3% rise for the month, just above the 0.2% projection. The annual core inflation rate stood at 3.2%, consistent with expectations.

Data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Apple loses EU court battle over €13 billion tax bill in Ireland

EU court ruling

Europe’s highest court ruled against Apple on Tuesday 10th September 2024, concluding a decade-long legal dispute over the company’s tax dealings in Ireland.

The case dates back to 2016, when the European Commission directed Ireland to reclaim up to 13 billion euros ($14.4 billion) in unpaid taxes from Apple.

The Commission had determined that Apple benefited from ‘illegal’ tax advantages in Ireland for twenty years.

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UK economy flatlines for second month in a row

UK economic health

The UK’s economy did not experience growth in July 2024, continuing the stagnation from June 2024, as indicated by official data

Analysts had anticipated a modest growth of 0.2% for July. However, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell short of the expectations set by economists surveyed by Reuters, who had predicted a 0.2% increase. Additionally, the country experienced no GDP growth in June 2024.

In July 2024, Britain’s predominant services sector experienced a slight increase of 0.1%, while production and construction outputs declined by 0.8% and 0.4%, respectively.

The UK’s economic growth rose by 0.5% in the three months leading up to July 2024, which was marginally below the expectations of economists and the 0.6% growth seen in the second quarter ending in June.

The services sector received a boost from a summer filled with sports events, including the Euros and the Olympics, despite the downturn in production and construction outputs.

The absence of growth for another month poses a significant challenge for the new Labour government, which has prioritised economic stimulation.

Despite no growth in July 2024, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) noted that the services sector showed strength over the last three months as a whole. Growth was primarily driven by computer programmers and the health sector, which bounced back from June’s strike action.

However, there was a decline in output from the advertising, architecture, and engineering sectors, according to the ONS. Car and machinery firms experienced a particularly challenging month.

While the ONS tracks gross domestic product (GDP) monthly, greater emphasis is placed on the three-month trend. Monthly figures, being preliminary estimates, are often subject to minor revisions as more data becomes available.

UK economy flatlines in July 2024

UK economy flatlines in July 2024 (Graph and Data ONS)
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Rightmove rejects £5.6 billion takeover offer

House For Sale

The Australian property listing company REA Group announced on Wednesday that its £5.6 billion ($7.32 billion) cash-and-stock bid to take over Rightmove, Britain’s largest real estate portal, was rejected.

REA Group, which is 62% owned by Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp, reportedly did not provide a reason for Rightmove’s refusal of the offer.

Analysts have noted that Britain’s housing market is three times larger than Australia’s. A successful deal would have accelerated REA’s expansion into profitable international markets.

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Google’s €2.4 billion fine upheld by EU court in antitrust probe

EU court antitrust tech ruling

Europe’s top court upheld a €2.4 billion ($2.65 billion) fine against Google on Tuesday 10th September 2024 for unfairly promoting its shopping comparison service, exploiting its market dominance.

The ruling stems from a 2017 antitrust investigation by the European Commission, the executive arm of the European Union.

The Commission reportedly found that Google had unfairly favoured its own shopping comparison service, to the detriment of rival services.

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Google’s advertising business goes on trial

Google

The U.S. government is targeting the heart of Google’s vast wealth – its highly profitable monopolising advertising technology business

A trial scheduled to begin on Monday 9th September 2024 will scrutinise the Department of Justice’s (DoJ) claims that Alphabet, the parent company of Google, is unlawfully sustaining a monopoly in the marketplace.

In the previous year, the firm amassed over $200 billion (£152 billion) through the placement and sale of online advertisements.

Alphabet attributes its success to the ‘effectiveness’ of its business. Conversely, prosecutors contend that the company has leveraged its market control to stifle competition.

The legal action, launched by the Department of Justice (DoJ) and several states in 2023, charges Google with dominating the digital advertising market and employing its influence to obstruct innovation and competition.

Google asserts that it is simply one of numerous companies that arrange digital advertisement placements for consumers.

The corporation argues that the digital advertising industry is increasingly competitive, citing the growing advertising revenues of entities like Apple, Amazon, and TikTok as proof, as mentioned in a blog post responding to the DoJ’s lawsuit in 2023.

The contentions will be laid out before the U.S. District Judge who is expected to deliver a verdict.

This trial comes on the heels of a notable decision in a separate antitrust lawsuit against Google by the Justice Department last month. Judge Amit Mehta ruled that Google had illegally stifled competition in its online search services.

He reportedly stated that, “Google is a monopolist and has acted as such to maintain its monopoly.”

Alphabet one year chart

Alphabet one year chart
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China’s exports up by 8.7% in August 2024

Exports data China

August 2024 saw China’s exports increase more than expected however, imports fell short of forecasts

Exports expanded by 8.7% in U.S. dollar terms compared to the previous year, while imports saw a marginal increase of 0.5%.

The export volume of China’s rare earths decreased by 1% from the previous year, imports experienced a more significant drop of 12%.

China’s exports to its major trading partners, the U.S., European Union and Association of Southeast Asian Nations all reportedly rose in August from a year ago.

Exports to the EU grew the most, up by 13% according to preliminary calculations.

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China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbs by 0.6% – less-than-expected

China flag and charts

On Monday 9th September 2024, China announced that its consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.6% year-on-year in August 2024, falling short of expectations and due mainly to decreasing costs in transportation, home goods, and rents.

The consumer price index was projected to rise by 0.7% year-on-year in August 2024, based on a poll. However, the producer price index experienced a decline of 1.8% year-on-year in August, exceeding the analysts’ forecast of a 1.4% decrease.

China’s inflation rate increased by 0.6% year-on-year, which was below the 0.7% economists had anticipated according to a Reuters poll. Month-on-month, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw a rise of 0.4%, also falling short of the expected 0.5%.

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Does the stock market reflect the state of the U.S. economy?

Stock market health monitor

The stock market is often seen as a barometer of economic health, but its relationship with the broader U.S. economy is more nuanced than it might appear.

Although there are links between the two, they do not always correlate. The intricacies of this relationship and its implications for investors and the general public are multifaceted.

The stock market – A snapshot of investor sentiment

The stock market is largely a reflection of investor sentiment and their expectations for future economic performance. When investors feel optimistic, stock prices generally increase. On the other hand, when they are pessimistic, stock prices are likely to decrease. Because the market is driven by sentiment, it can react to factors that don’t immediately affect the real economy, like geopolitical events, interest rate changes, or corporate earnings announcements.

Economic indicators: The real economy

The well-being of the U.S. economy is often assessed using various indicators such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, unemployment rates, consumer spending, and inflation. These metrics offer a broader perspective on the economic climate. For example, an expanding GDP coupled with low unemployment usually indicates a robust economy, despite any fluctuations in the stock market.

Divergence between the stock market and the economy

Occasionally, the stock market and the economy may move in different directions. For instance, during the COVID-19 pandemic, the stock market swiftly recovered from an initial downturn due to extraordinary fiscal and monetary stimulus measures. In contrast, the wider economy’s recovery was more protracted, marked by persistent high unemployment and substantial disruptions across numerous industries.

Likewise, the stock market might fall even amidst positive economic indicators. This occurs when investors foresee impending difficulties, such as possible increases in interest rates or geopolitical conflicts, that could affect corporate earnings.

Short-term vs. long-term perspectives

The stock market frequently responds to short-term factors and investor behaviours, such as speculation and market sentiment, leading to volatility that may not align with the underlying economic fundamentals. Conversely, economic indicators generally offer a more long-term perspective on the economy’s health.

The broader impact of the stock market

Although the stock market’s performance can influence the economy via wealth effects and corporate investments, it is not the only indicator of economic vitality. The performance of the stock market is significant to many U.S. citizens, especially those with investments through retirement plans.

However, the real economy, as measured by employment, production, and consumption, often has a more direct impact on people’s daily lives.

Conclusion

In conclusion, although the stock market is linked to the U.S. economy, they do not always move in tandem. The stock market reflects investor sentiment and anticipations for the future, yet it may not fully represent the present economic conditions.

Hence, for a thorough assessment of economic health, it is crucial to evaluate various economic indicators in addition to the performance of the stock market.

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U.S. introduces new microchip-related export controls

U.S. chip rules

The Biden administration is reportedly implementing new export controls on essential technologies, such as quantum computing and semiconductor materials, in response to China’s progress in the global chip market

These controls encompass quantum computers and their components, sophisticated chipmaking tools, semiconductor technologies, certain metal and metal alloy components and software, and high-bandwidth chips, which are vital for AI applications.

While the U.S. intensifies its measures to curb China’s expansion, there is noticeable hesitancy within the global industry.

The U.S. Department of Commerce issued new regulations on Friday, 6th September 2024, encompassing quantum computers and their components, sophisticated chipmaking tools, certain metal and metal alloy components and software, as well as high-bandwidth chips, which are vital for AI applications.

See report details here

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Is the ‘eagerly anticipated’ Fed interest rate cut (due in September 2024) – too little too late?

Federal Reserve

Is the U.S. economy already weaker than the headline data suggests and should the U.S. Federal Reserve already be easing?

In the U.S. recent data (Friday 30th August 2024) showed the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve’s favored measure of inflation, ticked up 0.2% last month, as expected. The data seems to back a smaller rate cut.

The question of whether the economy is weaker than headline data suggests and if the U.S. Federal Reserve should already be easing is complex.

The gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3% in Q2 of 2024, which is a positive indicator. However, the U.S. current-account deficit widened, and personal income and outlays show mixed signals with a slight increase in personal income but a higher increase in personal outlays.

Inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target but well below the pandemic-era peak. These factors suggest that while there are positive aspects to the U.S. economy, there are also challenges that may warrant caution from the Federal Reserve.

Is the market too focused on forecasting the size of any possible upcoming cut? “The question no one has asked yet is why is the policy rate is still at 5.5% when inflation is down to almost 2.5%? It would most likely be an error to do a ‘bigger’ rate cut in this kind of environment with all the uncertainty that the U.S. economy is facing.

Jobs data trends are also an important factor and play a major role in decision making. Company performance and future performance predictions are critical to help judge policy direction.

Decisions on monetary policy easing would be based on a comprehensive analysis of all economic indicators and trends.

If the FED go BIG on a rate cut some say it could be very dangerous and spook the markets.

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Qualcomm intensifies competition with Intel and AMD and others as the company introduces its newest AI PC chip

New AI chip from Qualcomm

Qualcomm has introduced the Snapdragon X Plus 8-core processor, intensifying its venture into the AI PC market and challenging competitors like Intel and AMD

The U.S. semiconductor powerhouse announced that the Snapdragon X Plus 8-core targets PCs priced from $700, aiming to broaden its chip reach to additional devices.

Moreover, Qualcomm has enjoyed backing from Microsoft, which is incorporating Snapdragon processors in its Copilot+ PCs.

Qualcomm says the company is also working on mixed reality smart glasses with Samsung and Google.

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Burberry dropped from FTSE 100

Shoppers

The British luxury fashion house Burberry Group was relegated from the U.K.’s FTSE 100 on Wednesday 4th August 2024, amid declining sales and management upheavals, all adding to the challenges of the 168-year-old retailer

This demotion represents a new setback for Burberry, with its share price having plummeted over 53% this year.

Previous CEOs have endeavoured to refine the brand’s aesthetic. With the appointment of Joshua Schulman as the new chief executive in July 2024, a shift in strategy is now indicated.

Burberry is not alone in its waning fortunes. The luxury sector as a whole has suffered from a prolonged downturn in consumer spending amid inflationary pressures and broader economic uncertainty. Chinese luxury consumption has been especially hard hit.

In July, Hugo Boss cut its full-year guidance after reporting a fall in sales, notably in the U.K. and China, while Gucci owner Kering issued a weak forecast recognising a deceleration in China. LVMH revenue also fell in the second quarter on weaker sales.

Burberry’s FTSE relegation confirms a long fall from grace for the luxury fashion icon.

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Biggest one-day market capitalisation drop for a U.S. stock in history, and guess what… it was Nvidia

Nvidia

Nvidia $279 billion market cap wipeout — the biggest in U.S. history for just ONE company

On Tuesday 3rd September 2024, around $279 billion of value was wiped off of Nvidia. That was the biggest one-day market capitalisation drop for a U.S. stock in HISTORY!

Nvidia one-day chart closed 108 on 3rd September 2024

Nvidia one-day chart closed 108 on 3rd September 2024

Nvidia shares continued sliding in post-market trading Tuesday, falling 2%, after Bloomberg reported that the company received a subpoena from the Department of Justice as part of an antitrust investigation.

Global semiconductor stocks and related sectors subsequently experienced a decline on Wednesday 4th September 2024, after Nvidia’s share price in the U.S. saw a significant plunge overnight.

Update: in a subsequent statement Nvidia reportedly said it didn’t receive antitrust subpoena from DOJ. This according to a report on CNBC.

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The September market crunch – markets up, markets down!

Bear Bull market chase

No surprise that the markets are taking a little breather then, after reaching and exceeding new highs in recent weeks.

The S&P 500 fell by a little over 2%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average trimmed around 1.50%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.26%.

A variety of factors likely contributed to the market’s weakness on Tuesday 3rd September 2024

U.S. manufacturing activity continued to contract in August 2024, raising concerns about the strength of the U.S. economy again.

Nvidia‘s stock plummeted nearly 10%. The downturn also affected other semiconductor manufacturers in the U.S. and Asia. Intel’s shares fell by 8.8%, SK Hynix’s by over 7%, and Tokyo Electron’s by over 8.5%.

Furthermore, Nvidia‘s shares declined an additional 2% in extended trading amid news that the U.S. Department of Justice has begun an antitrust investigation into the company.

This bleak sentiment may have been influenced by market expectations. The Fed dithering about when to make an interest rate cut isn’t helping.

Historically speaking, September has been the worst month for the S&P 500. The index lost an average of 2.3% over the past 10 Septembers, according to FactSet data.

There are real reasons to feel concerned for the month. Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee warned investors to be cautious for the next eight weeks and thinks stocks could pull back by 7% to 10%.

S&P 500 one-day chart

S&P 500 one-day chart

Nasdaq Composite one-day chart

Nasdaq Composite one-day chart
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BYD sales hit record high in August 2024

BYD EV

In August 2024, Chinese electric car behemoth BYD set a new sales record for passenger vehicles, with hybrid models outpacing battery-only vehicles in growth.

Zeekr, supported by Geely, experienced a rise in deliveries to 18,015 for August, although this was a decrease from the 20206 deliveries reported in June 2024.

Li Auto, renowned for its range-extender vehicles, saw a decrease in deliveries to 48,122 in August, a drop from the July record of 51,000.

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Black Myth Wukong – China’s first global gaming hit sells millions in a week

Black Myth

China’s inaugural venture into high-end video gaming has smashed global records, enhancing the industry’s international aspirations despite the gaming restrictions imposed by Beijing.

Black Myth: Wukong, an action-adventure game rooted in Chinese mythology, surpassed 10 million units sold just three days following its release on 20th August 2024. A week and a half later, it continued to hold the second spot in revenue rankings in the U.S., and remained the top-selling game worldwide, according to the Steam video game platform where it sells for around $60.

Hero Games co-published the game and was an early investor in its developer Game Science.

About the game

The game Black Myth: Wukong is an action RPG rooted in Chinese mythology. The story is based on Journey to the West, one of the Four Great Classical Novels of Chinese literature. You shall set out as the Destined One to venture into the challenges and marvels ahead, to uncover the obscured truth beneath the veil of a glorious legend from the past.

Black Myth: Wukong
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Euro zone inflation falls to 2.2% – a 3-year low

EU inflation drops

Inflation in the Euro zone decreased to a three-year low of 2.2% in August 2024, according to preliminary data from Eurostat released on Friday 30th August 2024

The core inflation rate, which excludes the volatile elements of energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, dropped to 2.8% in August from July’s 2.9%, aligning with predictions.

Market expectations have fully incorporated a 0.25% rate cut by the ECB in September 2024, following its initial rate reduction in June 2024, with anticipation of an additional 0.25% reduction before year-end.

This follows a slowdown in price increases in Germany, the largest economy in the eurozone, which cooled to an unexpected 2% for the month, according to the index of consumer prices.