Trump announces the new ‘Department of Government Efficiency’- DOGE – Dogecoin climbs over 150% on the news

DOGE

The purchase of Meme coins is often viewed as indicators of retail interest and the willingness to take risks in the cryptocurrency market. Increased activity in meme coins typically signals that retail investors are engaging and are inclined to speculate more aggressively on the risk spectrum.

Trump initially proposed the concept of an efficiency commission in September 2024. Since that time, Musk -who has previously referred to himself as the ‘Dogefather’ – is known for making public statements about the meme coin that affect its value, has posted on his social media platform X, referring to the commission as theDepartment of Government Efficiency’ or ‘D.O.G.E.

Dogecoin’s relevance surged in 2021 due to Elon Musk’s endorsement and the continuous hype on social media, which became a significant catalyst for the cryptocurrency. In May of that year, Musk’s tweets propelled Dogecoin to its peak value around 67 cents, according to market analysis. However, his reference to Dogecoin as ‘a hustle’, caused its value to plummet.

Recently, Dogecoin’s value increased following the post-election announcement by President-elect Donald Trump about the establishment of theDepartment of Government Efficiency‘, which he acronymized as ‘DOGE’ in his statement.

Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, and Vivek Ramaswamy, the former Republican presidential candidate and co-founder of Strive Asset Management, have been appointed to lead this department.

According to Trump’s statement, their role will be instrumental in his administration’s efforts to dismantle government bureaucracy, reduce unnecessary regulations, eliminate wasteful spending, and reorganise federal agencies.

It’s time for D.O.G.E.

Dow hits new all-time high as Trump wins 2024 U.S. election

U.S. stocks at all time high

The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all hit new highs!

Stocks rallied sharply on Wednesday 6th November 2024, with major indices hitting record highs, as Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election.

It looks like the Trump rally has already begun.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1,508.05 points to a record close of 43,729.93. The last time the Dow jumped more than 1,000 points in a single day was in November 2022.

The S&P 500 also hit an all-time high, soaring to 5,929.04. The Nasdaq Composite climbed to a record of its own too of 18,983.47.

Dow Jones one-year chart as of 6th November 2024

Dow Jones one-year chart as of 6th November 2024

S&P 500 one-year chart as of 6th November 2024

S&P 500 one-year chart as of 6th November 2024

Nasdaq Composite one-year chart as of 6th November 2024

Nasdaq Composite one-year chart as of 6th November 2024

Oops I did it again! Trump wins 2024 U.S. presidential election – emphatically defeating Harris

Trump wins 2024 U.S. election

After losing the re-election to President Joe Biden in 2020, Donald Trump, the 45th president, has now been elected as the 47th.

Trump’s victory sets several historic records. At the age of 78, he becomes the oldest individual to win a U.S. presidential election. He is the first president to serve two nonconsecutive terms since Grover Cleveland 132 years ago, and his win comes from what is likely the costliest presidential race in history.

Also, he is reportedly the first president, whether in office or former, to have been convicted of crimes. He is also the first president to be impeached twice and then reclaim the presidency. Additionally, he is the first to assume office while actively facing criminal charges in both federal and state courts.

This victory for Trump prevents Vice President Harris from achieving what would have been a historic feat: becoming the first female president of the United States.

As Trump secures win stock markets react positively as Dow and S&P 500 futures rise to touch new all-time highs!

Elon Musk predicts ‘hardship,’ economic turmoil and a stock market crash if Trump wins

U.S. presidential election

Elon Musk, the billionaire entrepreneur and CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, has recently made headlines in the U.S. with his stark predictions about the potential economic fallout if Donald Trump wins the upcoming presidential election.

This is unusual, as you are more likely to hear these proposals in a crisis, when desperate times demand desperate measures, but not leading up to a presential election and especially not from an opposition vying to take control of the U.S. presidency.

Musk’s comments have sparked widespread debate and concern, as he foresees significant economic turmoil and a stock market crash in the event of a Trump victory.

Musk’s predictions are deep-rooted in his belief that Trump’s proposed economic policies, including drastic cuts to federal spending and mass deportations, will lead to severe short-term economic disruptions.

Musk emphasised the need to reduce government spending to live within the country’s means, even if it involves temporary hardship.

He reportedly argued that such measures are necessary for long-term prosperity but acknowledged that they would likely cause an initial severe overreaction in the economy

Comments Elon Musk made

Billionaire Musk, Trump’s would-be government budget-cutting and ‘efficiency’ adviser, also says there will be “no special cases” and “no exceptions” when he starts slashing federal spending after Trump takes office.

With just a week until the presidential election, Donald Trump’s ally and influential economic adviser Elon Musk is warning people to expect economic chaos, a crashing stock market and financial “hardship” – albeit only “temporary” – if Trump wins.

“We have to reduce spending to live within our means,” Musk said. “That necessarily involves some temporary hardship, but it will ensure long-term prosperity.” 

Describing government spending as “a room full of targets,” Musk said: “Like, you can’t miss. Fire in any direction and you’re going to hit a target.”

He reportedly said, “I think once the election takes place we’ll immediately begin looking at where to take the most immediate action.”

And he reportedly added, “obviously a lot of people who are taking advantage of the government are going to be upset about that. I’ll probably need a lot of security.” 

“Everyone,” he reportedly said, will be taking a “haircut.”

The Tesla CEO went further and agreed with a supporter who predicted “an initial severe overreaction in the economy” and that “Markets will tumble.” 

“Sounds about right,” Musk replied.

Trump has already reportedly said he wants Musk to head up a commission of government efficiency. Trump says the billionaire tech entrepreneur would be his “Secretary of Budget-Cutting,” implying a possible Cabinet position.

Musk himself has described his new role as running a “Department of Government Efficiency,” though he admits the title is an inside joke – the acronym spells DOGE, the name of a cryptocurrency.

Musk speech highlights

One of the key points Musk highlighted is the potential impact of Trump’s policies on the stock market. He agreed with a social media post suggesting that the combination of mass deportations and significant government spending cuts would lead to a sharp decline in market values.

Musk’s agreement with this assessment has raised alarms among investors and economists, who fear that such a scenario could trigger a financial crisis.

Musk’s concerns are not without precedent. The stock market is highly sensitive to political and economic uncertainties, and drastic policy changes can lead to volatility and investor panic.

The prospect of mass deportations, in particular, could disrupt labour markets and consumer spending, further exacerbating economic instability. Additionally, significant cuts to federal spending could lead to job losses and reduced public services, compounding the economic challenges.

Unusual comments leading up to an election

Musk reportedly told supporters that the measures were needed because of the crisis of the skyrocketing federal debt.

This is not the usual picture when a politician and his campaign promise austerity, hardship, deep budget cuts, a likely economic “overreaction” and a slump in the stock market.

You usually hear these things proposed in a crisis, when desperate times supposedly demand desperate measures.

Are desperate times coming, maybe they are already here?

Optimism

Despite the grim outlook, Musk remains optimistic about the long-term benefits of these policies. He believes that once the initial shock subsides, the economy will recover and emerge stronger and more sustainable.

However, this perspective is not universally shared. Many economists argue that the risks associated with such drastic measures outweigh the potential benefits, and that a more balanced approach is needed to address the country’s economic challenges.

Musk’s predictions have also drawn criticism from those who view them as politically motivated. As a prominent supporter of Trump, Musk’s comments have been interpreted by some as an attempt to rally support for the former president’s economic agenda. Critics argue that Musk’s focus on austerity measures and government efficiency overlooks the broader social and economic implications of such policies.

Conclusion

Elon Musk’s predictions of economic hardship and a stock market crash if Trump wins the election have sparked significant debate and concern.

While Musk believes that these measures are necessary for long-term prosperity, the potential short-term disruptions and risks cannot be ignored. As the election approaches, investors and policymakers will be closely watching the developments and preparing for the potential economic fallout.

Whether Musk’s predictions come to pass remains to be seen, but his comments have undoubtedly added to the uncertainty and complexity of the current economic landscape and the never-ending ‘commentary surrounding the U.S. election.

Russia’s central bank raises key rate to 21% to tackle high inflation

Russia bank rate

On Friday 25th October 2024, Russia’s central bank increased its key interest rate by 2% (200 basis points) to 21%, attributing the decision to consumer price increases significantly exceeding its projections and cautioning about persistent high inflation risks in the medium term

This rate hike surpasses the 1% (100 basis-point) rise anticipated by analysts and sets the bank’s benchmark rate at its highest level since February 2003, as reported by analysts.

Previously, the key rate had been raised by 1% (100 basis points) to 19% in September 2024.

It was reported that the annual seasonally adjusted inflation hit an average of 9.8% in September 2024, up from 7.5% in August 2024.

It is now anticipated the rate will stick at around the 8.0% – 8.5% range for the remainder of 2024. This is running above a July 2024 forecast of around 6.5% – 7.0%.

See more central bank interest rate moves here

IMF head warns of worrying high debt and low growth combination

World debt

The International Monetary Fund’s leader warned on Thursday 17th October 2024 that the global economy continues to be hindered by high government debt and sluggish growth.

MD Kristalina Georgieva praised the efforts of major central banks in controlling inflation but pointed out that such successes were not widespread.

Additionally, Georgieva cautioned that international trade is no longer the growth catalyst it used to be, emphasizing the increase in restrictive policies across numerous economies.

“It is successful major economies that have done really well … and there are pockets in the world where inflation is still a problem,” she reportedly said.

“The impact of higher prices remains, and it is making many people in many countries feel worse off and angry.”

See articles here on the problems of world debt.

European Union vote to slap tariff charge on Chinese EV imports

EU EV Charge

On Friday 4th October 2024, the European Union voted to implement definitive tariffs on battery electric vehicles (BEVs) made in China

‘The European Commission’s proposal to levy definitive countervailing duties on imports of Chinese battery electric vehicles has garnered the requisite support from EU Member States to proceed with the imposition of tariffs,‘ stated the EU.

Initially, the EU announced in June its intention to impose higher tariffs on imports of Chinese electric vehicles, citing substantial unfair subsidies that threaten economic harm to European electric vehicle manufacturers.

The EU disclosed specific duties for companies based on their level of cooperation and the information provided during the bloc’s investigation into China’s EV production, which commenced last year. Provisional duties have been in effect since early July.

Following the receipt of ‘substantiated comments on the provisional measures‘ from stakeholders, the European Commission updated its tariff strategy in September 2024.

A spokesperson from China’s Ministry of Commerce indicated that Beijing maintains its stance that the EU’s investigation into China’s electric vehicle industry subsidies has led to predetermined outcomes – suggesting that the EU is fostering unfair competition.

China responded by vowing a suitable response.

There is a UK budget coming and the new chancellor reportedly needs to raise £20 billion – to fill a ‘black hole’ – how can this be done without upsetting the electorate?

Tax black hole

Tax Reforms

Increase in VAT: Adjusting the Value Added Tax (VAT) rate could generate substantial revenue.

Pension Tax Relief: Limiting pension tax relief to the basic rate of income tax could raise around £15 billion per year. Pension tax relief raid.

Windfall Tax: Increasing the windfall tax on the profits of oil and gas companies could also contribute significantly.

General Tax Increases: N.I., Income Tax, Capital Gains Tax, Inheritance Tax,

Public Sector Efficiency

Improving Productivity: Enhancing public sector productivity by just 5% could deliver up to £20 billion in benefits annually.

New Taxes or Levies

Green Taxes: Introducing or increasing taxes on carbon emissions and other environmental levies could help raise funds while promoting sustainability.

Digital Services Tax: Expanding the scope of the digital services tax to cover more online businesses could also be a potential revenue source.

Electric vehicle tax: new tax bands for electric cars

Spending Cuts

Reducing Public Expenditure: Identifying and cutting down on non-essential public spending could help balance the budget.

Economic Growth

Stimulating Growth: Policies aimed at boosting economic growth, such as investing in infrastructure and innovation, could increase tax revenues indirectly by expanding the tax base. But this will take time to fully materialise.

Each of these measures comes with its own set of challenges and implications, so the government would need to carefully consider the economic and social impacts before implementation.

Black hole?

The Chancellor has recently pointed to a ‘black hole’ in the public finances, referencing the recent uncovering of an ‘unbudgeted’ £22bn overspend in the current tax year following her tenure commencement at No. 11 Downing Street in July.

The reality of this newfound deficit is subject to debate. However, given that the Chancellor has ruled out the possibility of borrowing for day-to-day expenses, it seems she very likely she might be compelled to raise taxes to offset these expenditures.

N.I. and Pension raid?

In its last year, the Conservative government cut taxes by £20 billion by reducing the National Insurance rate. Reversing this cut would be a direct way to increase revenue, taking us back to the financial situation before last November.

Currently, many people receive a 40% tax relief on pension contributions but are taxed at 20% when they withdraw. This ‘inconsistency’ could easily become a target for the Chancellor.

Additionally, employers’ National Insurance contributions are not applied to pension contributions or withdrawals, and individuals can even take a tax-free lump sum from their pension after having received tax relief on their contributions.

Understanding the complexities is not necessary to see that a chancellor in search of extra tax revenue may consider pension contributions as a significant source of additional income.

The UK budget is due on: 30th October 2024 – let’s see just by how much UK taxes are increased – because they will be.

Ireland’s 13-billion-euro Apple windfall

Apple

Ireland stands to gain a substantial financial boost following a pivotal ruling by the European Union’s highest court, which requires Apple to pay €13 billion (around $14 billion) in back taxes. Initially resisted by Dublin, this windfall is now seen as a transformative chance for the nation.

The settlement’s roots trace back to 2016 when the European Commission deemed that Apple had received illegal state aid via favorable tax deals with Ireland. After prolonged legal disputes, the EU court’s verdict has concluded the issue, mandating Apple to settle the substantial amount.

The Irish government has devised a strategic plan to capitalise on this unforeseen fiscal advantage. The funds are designated for various key sectors to promote sustained economic growth and societal welfare. A considerable portion is allocated for infrastructure enhancements, including transport network upgrades and sustainable energy initiatives, in line with Ireland’s green economy transition goals.

The windfall will also bolster progress in healthcare and education. Plans are in place to improve healthcare facilities and services, enhancing access and care quality for residents. In education, investments will focus on updating educational institutions, fostering research and innovation, and preparing the workforce with future-oriented skills.

The financial influx also presents a chance to tackle housing deficits, with investments directed towards boosting affordable housing availability and ameliorating living standards nationwide. This comprehensive strategy aims to forge a more equitable and thriving society.

In essence, Ireland’s $14 billion windfall from Apple offers an exceptional opportunity to effectuate considerable improvements across diverse sectors, potentially reshaping the country’s economic and social fabric for generations.

It’s quite remarkable how a fortune from just ONE company can be utterly transformational for an entire country.

As of September 2024, Apple’s market cap sat at around $3.4 trillion. This makes Apple the most valuable company in the world by market cap.

As of September 2024, Apple’s market cap sat at around $3.4 trillion. This makes Apple the most valuable company in the world by market cap.

Just so you know, 14 billion of 3.4 trillion equals about 0.41%. A small drop in a massive financial ocean.

Chinese stocks up sharply after Beijing confirms stimulus measures

China stocks up

Chinese stocks continued to rise following state media reports that China’s top leaders have endorsed the government’s recent measures to bolster their economy.

The CSI 300 index in Mainland China continued its rally for a seventh consecutive day, reaching its highest point in about four months, subsequent to a meeting of China’s highest officials confirming the government’s latest economic stimulus actions.

South Korea’s Kospi index surged by 1.9%, driven by advances in semiconductor company SK Hynix, which declared the commencement of mass production of the world’s inaugural 12-layer HBM3E chip, utilised in AI applications.

See SK Hynix Newsroom report here

UK says data centres are critical infrastructure and are designated as important as the power grid and the NHS

Critical data centres UK

UK data centres are set to be classified as critical national infrastructure (CNI), aligning them with sectors such as emergency services, finance, healthcare, and utilities

This classification will ensure they receive additional government support during major incidents like cyber-attacks, IT outages, or severe weather, to reduce disruption.

Data centres, large warehouses filled with extensive computer banks, are the backbone of services like AI applications, data processing, and streaming. Despite facing criticism for their energy and water usage, the new Labour government supports the industry, with Technology Secretary Peter Kyle referring to data centres as ‘the engines of modern life.’

Currently, the UK recognises 13 sectors as critical national infrastructure, a list last revised nine years ago with the addition of space and defence.

The 13 Critical National Infrastructure Sectors

  1. Chemicals
  2. Civil Nuclear
  3. Communications
  4. Defence
  5. Emergency Services
  6. Energy
  7. Finance
  8. Food
  9. Government
  10. Health
  11. Space
  12. Transport
  13. Water

British Technology Minister Peter Kyle announced on Thursday 12th September 2024 that UK data centres will be designated as ‘Critical National Infrastructure’ (CNI). This status, typically reserved for essential national sectors like nuclear power, provides data centre operators with a direct communication channel to the government for threat preparation and response.

Furthermore, the government has expressed support for a proposed £3.75 billion data centre by UK company DC01UK in Hertfordshire, England, which is projected to be the largest in Europe upon completion.

U.S. introduces new microchip-related export controls

U.S. chip rules

The Biden administration is reportedly implementing new export controls on essential technologies, such as quantum computing and semiconductor materials, in response to China’s progress in the global chip market

These controls encompass quantum computers and their components, sophisticated chipmaking tools, semiconductor technologies, certain metal and metal alloy components and software, and high-bandwidth chips, which are vital for AI applications.

While the U.S. intensifies its measures to curb China’s expansion, there is noticeable hesitancy within the global industry.

The U.S. Department of Commerce issued new regulations on Friday, 6th September 2024, encompassing quantum computers and their components, sophisticated chipmaking tools, certain metal and metal alloy components and software, as well as high-bandwidth chips, which are vital for AI applications.

See report details here

U.S. jobs data revision creates economic concern and political argument

U.S> jobs data revision

Job growth in the US last year was weaker than previously believed, according to a statement from the Labor Department on Wednesday 21st August 2024.

This revelation has intensified the ongoing debate regarding the health of the U.S. economy. The department’s updated figures indicate that there were approximately 818,000 fewer jobs added over the 12 months leading up to March than initially estimated.

This preliminary revision suggests a 30% decrease in the total number of jobs created during that period, marking the most significant adjustment since 2009.

The revised data points to an average monthly job increase of about 174,000, a reduction from the previously estimated 240,000.

Downward revisions affected most sectors, including information, media, technology, retail, manufacturing, and the broad category of professional and business services.

Analysis by Oxford Economics noted that this indicates the job growth for the period relied more heavily on government and education/healthcare sectors than previously understood.

Despite the revisions, hiring remained robust, albeit not at levels sufficient to match the growth of the working-age population.

The U.S. Labor Department issues monthly job creation estimates based on employer surveys and regularly updates these figures as more data becomes available, with an annual reset at the beginning of each year.

The report from Wednesday offered a glimpse into this process, incorporating data from county-level unemployment insurance tax records. This year’s revision is notably larger than those of previous years.

The Biden administration has highlighted strong job growth as evidence that its policies have positioned the U.S. as the world’s leading economy post-pandemic.

However, Republicans have used the latest figures to contend that the Democrats have misled the public about the economic situation. The Republican Party took to social media to announce: “BREAKING: 818,000 jobs that the Biden-Harris administration claimed to have ‘created’ do not actually exist.”

Over the past year, the U.S. has consistently reported robust job growth, defying both economists’ expectations and public sentiment. These gains have been particularly surprising given the highest borrowing costs in a generation, which typically hinder economic growth.

The recent revisions have lent weight to the argument that the labour market is less stable than previously thought, as highlighted by the Republican response.

Analysts believe these new figures will reinforce the case for the U.S. Federal Reserve to lower interest rates at its upcoming September 2024 meeting, a move that is widely anticipated to prevent further weakening of the job market.

These revisions have not caused widespread concern

Despite earlier economic anxieties this month, financial markets have largely absorbed the latest data without significant turmoil.

But that doesn’t mean there will be zero fallout – turmoil may follow. The data believed to be correct is incorrect – so, can we believe the data? Are there cracks appearing in the U.S labour market?

This data helped the U.S. economy – but it wasn’t right?

Is the Fed fighting its own shadow?

Shadow boxing

Has the Fed over-cooked it this time by waiting too long to reduce interest rates?

U.S. stock markets threw a wobbly after the latest employment data and after the Fed delayed its first rate cut… again. September 2024 now looks likely for that first cut – but by how much: 0.25% or as high as 0.50%?

The latest batch of bad news for the U.S. economy has actually became bad news for stocks this time. For too long the ‘bad news’ has been taken as ‘good news’, especially regarding the likelihood of a Fed interest rate cut – and for the markets in general.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is grappling with several challenges, including inflation, interest rates, and the broader U.S. and global economies.

Inflation

The Fed has been trying to control high inflation rates, which have been a significant concern. To combat inflation, the Fed has raised interest rates multiple times. Higher interest rates can help reduce inflation by slowing down borrowing and spending, but they can also slow economic growth.

Interest rates

By increasing interest rates, the Fed aims to make borrowing more expensive, which can help cool down an overheated economy. However, this can also lead to higher costs for consumers and businesses, potentially leading to reduced investment and spending.

Economic growth

The Fed’s policies are a balancing act. While they aim to control inflation, they also need to ensure that the economy doesn’t slow down too much. This balancing act can be challenging, especially when external factors like global economic conditions and geopolitical events come into play.

In essence, the Fed’s efforts to manage these issues can sometimes feel like ‘fighting its own shadow,’ as the consequences of their actions can create new challenges.

The timing of interest rate adjustments by the Federal Reserve is a topic of much debate among economists and policymakers.

Inflation control

The Fed’s primary goal in raising interest rates has been to control inflation. If inflation remains high, the Fed might be cautious about reducing rates too quickly to avoid a resurgence of inflation.

Economic indicators

The Fed closely monitors various economic indicators, such as employment rates, consumer spending, and GDP growth. If these indicators suggest that the economy is still strong, the Fed might delay reducing rates to ensure that inflation is fully under control.

Market reactions

Rapid changes in interest rates can cause volatility in financial markets. The Fed often aims for a gradual approach to avoid sudden shocks to the economy.

Global factors

The Fed also considers global economic conditions. For example, if other major economies are experiencing slow growth or financial instability, the Fed might be more cautious in adjusting rates.

Ultimately, the decision to reduce interest rates involves balancing the need to support economic growth with the risk of reigniting inflation. It’s a complex decision with significant implications for the U.S. and global economies.

Looks like the Fed overcooked it this time – but by how much?

Which governments hold the most Bitcoin?

Bitcoin cartoon

U.S., UK and Germany hold more Bitcoin than you may think.

According to the Arkham website, the United States’ government holds some 212,847 BTC making it one of the biggest holders of Bitcoin, while the treasuries of the U.K. and Germany reportedly hold around 61,245 BTC and 49,858 BTC each. (These values alter daily).

In addition to Bitcoin, the U.S. government also holds around $200 million in other cryptocurrencies like Ether (ETH), as well as major stablecoins like USDC.

U.S. Bitcoin holding by current value according to Arkham

Data from Arkham (as of 12th July 2024)

Arkham, a crypto intelligence platform focused on deanonymizing entities on the blockchain network, has introduced a dashboard featuring the governments with the largest crypto holdings.

The U.K. government, reportedly ranked second, holds around $3.5 billion worth of Bitcoin at current valuations, according to Arkham’s data. The German government owns roughly $2.5 billion.

UK Bitcoin holding by current value according to Arkham

Data from Arkham (as of 12th July 2024)

Other world governments holding Bitcoin

China, Russia, Ukraine, El Salvador, Finland, Bhutan and many others.

In 2021, El Salvador became the first country to make Bitcoin legal tender and mandated all local businesses to accept payments in BTC. 

Is the world shackled to debt?

World Debt

The world is in debt to the tune of $315 trillion, and counting.

$315,000,000,000,000

$315 trillion or $315,000,000,000,000 is a daunting number, it’s massive. In 2024, the global GDP reached just $109.5 trillion, just over a third of the global debt figure.

Perspective

To provide some perspective, with the world population at roughly 8.1 billion, if the debt were distributed evenly, each person would shoulder about $39,000 in debt.

As global debt reaches unprecedented levels, concerns naturally arise about its implications and origins.

Global debt

Global debt includes borrowings by households, businesses, and governments.

Household debt

Household debt, which many are familiar with, comprises mortgages, credit cards, and student loans. At the beginning of 2024, it stood at $59.1 trillion.

Corporate debt

Corporate debt, utilized by businesses for operations and growth, reached $164.5 trillion, with the financial sector contributing $70.4 trillion.

Government debt

Government debt, on the other hand, finances public services and projects without raising taxes. It can be obtained from other nations or institutions like the World Bank and the IMF, or through bond sales, which are essentially promises to pay with interest from the state to investors.

Public debt

Public debt was reported to be $91.4 trillion. While often perceived negatively, debt can be advantageous, supporting individuals in education and homeownership, aiding business expansion, and providing governments with means for economic development, social expenditures, or crisis management.

History

Historical evidence shows that public debt has been around for at least 2000 years, mainly for establishing settlements and financing wars, with governments accruing significant debts from conflicts such as the Napoleonic Wars.

Debt engulfs us all and is here to stay, but at what cost to society?

And who do we owe?

An important rare Earth metal

Tungsten rare Earth metal

Tungsten is a critically important rare earth metal, renowned for its unique and valuable properties.

Tungsten has the highest melting point among all metals, which makes it exceptionally suitable for high-temperature applications.

Key aspects of its importance

Industrial and technological applications

Tungsten is used in many industries where hardness, high density, high wear resistance, and high-temperature resistance are required. This includes mining, construction, energy generation, electronics, aerospace, and defence sectors. It is used in weapons, autos, electric car batteries, semiconductors and industrial machinery.

Fact: approximately 2Kg of tungsten goes into every electric vehicle.

Alloys

Metals are frequently alloyed with Tungsten to enhance their strength without substantially adding to their weight. This property is vital for uses like arc-welding electrodes and heating elements in high-temperature furnaces.

Significance

Tungsten is acknowledged as a critical metal because of its economic significance and the scarcity of its sources. It is reported that China produces the majority of the world’s tungsten, controlling approximately 80% of the supply of this rare earth metal.

Durability and flexibility

Tungsten’s durability, flexibility, and resistance to corrosion contribute to its popularity across various industries and applications. It ranks among the hardest and most resilient materials found in nature.

These characteristics render tungsten not just crucial but also indispensable for numerous high-tech applications. The rarity of tungsten and the intricate nature of its extraction and refinement processes enhance its value even further.

World suppliers of tungsten

According to Statista.com the global tungsten market was valued at over $5 billion USD in 2022. It’s projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting it could reach over $9.5 billion USD by 2030

Chinese auto sales overtake U.S. for the first time

EV competition

For the first time, automotive companies in China surpassed their U.S. counterparts in car sales last year, driven by BYD and expansion in emerging markets, according to a data released Thursday 13th July 2024.

Chinese brands such as BYD now at the forefront, reportedly sold 13.4 million new vehicles last year. In comparison, American brands sold approximately 11.9 million units. Japanese brands remained at the top with 23.59 million sales.

China’s sales growth rate surpassed that of the U.S., with a 23% rise from the previous year compared to the U.S.’s 9% increase.

The consistent high pricing by legacy automakers has inadvertently steered consumers towards more affordable Chinese alternatives.

No surprise here then as manufacturers milked profits from legacy lineups!

Tariffs have now been introduced on China to curb their automakers runaway success.

The EU imposes higher tariffs of up to 38% on Chinese EVs

EU and EV's

In a significant development that may affect the electric vehicle (EV) market, the European Union (EU) has tentatively agreed to levy tariffs on Chinese EV manufacturers.

This decision reportedly follows an inquiry into the surge of inexpensive, government-subsidized Chinese vehicles entering the EU market.

From 4th July 2024, Chinese EV producers who participated in the investigation will incur an average duty of 21%, while those who did not will face a substantial 38.1% tariff. Specific rates will be imposed on firms such as BYD, Geely, and SAIC.

Additionally, non-Chinese automobile companies manufacturing some EVs in China, including those based in the EU like BMW, will also be impacted. Tesla might receive a specially calculated duty rate upon request.

These levies are on top of the current 10% tariff on all electric cars manufactured in China. The EU’s action comes after the United States’ drastic measure last month to increase its tariff on Chinese electric cars from 25% to 100%.

Some critics view this anti-subsidy probe as protectionist, potentially harming China-EU economic relations and the worldwide automotive production and supply chain. The German Transport Minister has reportedly cautioned about the possibility of a trade conflict with Beijing.

Although the tariffs are intended to shield the EU’s own industry, they highlight the challenges of maintaining a balance between free trade and competitiveness in the swiftly changing EV sector.

Unless a qualified majority of EU nations opposes it, the tariffs will become permanent in November 2024. The European car industry stresses the need for free and fair trade but recognizes that promoting the adoption of electric cars requires a diverse strategy.

As the dispute over tariffs persists, the repercussions for the EV market are yet to be determined.

One thing is for sure, the consumer will suffer through these tariffs and also through extra road tax levies yet to be introduced, especially in the UK.

UK Prime Minister announces snap general election for 4th July 2024

UK election

On 22nd May 2024, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced a snap general election for 4th July 2024 This decision caught many by surprise, as the election was called more than around six months earlier than legally required.

Election Date: 4th July 2024let the fireworks begin

The Conservative Party, led by Rishi Sunak, is facing significant challenges in opinion polls, trailing behind the opposition Labour Party.

The economy, immigration, health services, and cost of living have been identified as key issues for voters.

Labour, led by Sir Keir Starmer, is considered the clear frontrunner, with a substantial lead in recent polls.

Since 2010, the Conservatives have seen five prime ministers: David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, and now Rishi Sunak.

Sir Keir described the past 14 years as “Tory chaos” and emphasised that it’s time for change.

So, the UK is gearing up for an early election, and the outcome will be closely watched both domestically and internationally

Big tech companies pledge AI safety commitments

AI Kill Switch!

Leading technology companies, such as Microsoft, Amazon, and OpenAI, have united under a significant international accord for artificial intelligence (AI) safety measures, established at the Seoul AI Safety Summit on Tuesday 21st May 2024.

Following the agreement, firms from various nations, including the UK, China, Canada, the U.S., France, South Korea, and the United Arab Emirates, have pledged to voluntarily commit to the secure development of their cutting-edge AI models.

Framework

AI model developers who have not already done so agreed to issue safety frameworks that detail how they will address the challenges posed by their advanced models, including the prevention of technology misuse by malicious entities.

These frameworks will feature ‘red lines’ that tech companies will establish to delineate the types of risks associated with advanced AI systems that are deemed ‘unacceptable.’ These risks encompass, but are not limited to, automated cyberattacks and the potential for bioweapons.

Kill switch

In the event of such dire scenarios, companies have declared their intention to introduce a ‘kill switch’ that would halt the development of their AI models should they be unable to ensure the mitigation of these risks.

“It is unprecedented for so many prominent AI firms from diverse regions of the world to concur on identical commitments regarding AI safety,” Rishi Sunak, the UK Prime Minister reportedly said on Tuesday 21st May 2024.

He further noted that these commitments would guarantee that the world’s foremost AI companies will maintain transparency and accountability concerning their safe AI development strategies.

This agreement builds upon a prior set of pledges made in November 2023 by entities engaged in the creation of generative AI software.

The involved companies have consented to seek feedback on these standards from ‘trusted actors,’ which include their respective national governments when suitable, prior to their publication in anticipation of the forthcoming AI summit – the AI Action Summit scheduled to take place in France in early 2025.

IMF warns U.S. and China trade divisions threaten a ‘reversal’ for global economy

U.S. & China trade tensions

Tensions between Washington and Beijing have intensified, with the U.S. ramping up trade restrictions and sanctions on China due to national security concerns.

Since Ukraine’s invasion, there has been a roughly 12% drop in trade between the blocs, and foreign direct investments have decreased by 20% compared to those within the bloc’s constituents.

If these divisions persist, the IMF forecasts that the economic impact on global GDP could be as high as 7% in the worst-case scenario.

A senior International Monetary Fund official cautioned on Tuesday, 7th May 2024, that the rift between the U.S. led Western and China-aligned economic blocs endangers global trade cooperation and economic growth.

Recent U.S. data is indicating inflation is proving stubborn and isn’t going away anytime soon

Inflation has become a persistent challenge for the Fed

The battle against inflation persists, gradually impacting the U.S. economy and presenting substantial challenges for the Federal Reserve.

Despite concerted efforts to control it, inflation remains stubbornly remains, leaving policymakers in a dilemma – to stimulate economic growth or to curb spiraling prices.

Let the data speak

Recent data presents a concerning scenario. Indexes from the Commerce Department, used by the Federal Reserve as indicators of inflation, reveal that prices are rising at a rate significantly exceeding the central bank’s annual target of 2%. Consumer spending persists, encouraged by the excessive amount of money circulating in the financial system.

However, this spending spree isn’t sustainable, and consumers are dipping into their savings to fund purchases. The personal savings rate has plummeted to its lowest level since October 2022. Borrowing is up and debt is far too high!

The Federal Reserve’s primary inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures price index, rose to 2.7% in March, encompassing all items. The crucial core index, excluding the more volatile food and energy prices, remained constant at 2.8%. These figures highlight the ongoing inflationary pressures.

Fed’s dilemma

The Federal Reserve is navigating a precarious inflation situation. Should it shift towards rate reductions prematurely, there’s a risk that inflation might surge back in 2024. Conversely, persistent inflation could compel central bankers to not only sustain the present rates but also ponder additional increases. The aspiration for a gentle economic descent is at stake.

Outlook

Forecasters anticipate inflation to dip below 2.5% in 2024, yet challenges persist. The Federal Reserve faces the difficult task of steering the economy towards stability and controlling inflation expectations. With the central bank’s policy meeting on the horizon, speculation abounds regarding their forthcoming strategy.

Will they maintain the current interest rates or implement more assertive measures? Their decision is set to influence the economic outlook for the foreseeable future.

Conclusion

U.S. inflation continues to be a persistent challenge, and the Federal Reserve’s efforts are ongoing. The path forward demands cautious steering, as policymakers must achieve a fine equilibrium to sustain economic stability while simultaneously curbing inflation.

And remember, the Fed said inflation was ‘transitory’.

Does extreme flooding pose a threat to UK food security?

UK floods

Record-breaking rain has inundated the United Kingdom over the past few months, leaving fields submerged and livestock at risk.

The relentless downpours, likely exacerbated by climate change, are now threatening the very foundation of UK food production.

Challenges faced by farmers

UK farmers are facing the repercussions of extreme weather events. Fields that would normally be abundant with crops are currently waterlogged, making them barren. Livestock are also suffering, unable to graze in the inundated fields, leading to a shortage of feed. The circumstances are critical, prompting the National Farmers Union (NFU) to raise the alarm.

NFU’s concerns and calls for action

The NFU emphasizes that climate change-induced flooding imperils food security. Rachel Hallos, NFU vice president, warns that these extreme conditions could become the norm. Urgent action is needed to safeguard our agricultural systems.

  • Compensation and Support: The NFU urges the government to provide more substantial compensation to flooded farmers. The recently launched Farm Recovery Fund offers grants, but broader and longer-term assistance is essential.
  • Reduced Crop Output: Weeks of incessant rain have already impacted this year’s harvest. Crop quality may suffer, affecting both farmers and consumers.
  • Resilience and Adaptation: We cannot rely solely on imports. A clear government plan is necessary to prepare for the potential effect of extreme weather, adapt to its effects, and ensure continued food production.

Voices from the fields – case study example

A recent report from a mixed dairy, beef, and arable farmer in Gloucester whose land lies in the floodplain reportedly said that floods occurred every six years, but now they occur with alarming frequency. Cattle, unable to graze, face dwindling feed supplies. Livelihoods hang in the balance.

The farmer went on to say, ‘climate change affects us all. It threatens our food supply and prices. We must think about resilience and feeding the world amidst a changing climate.’

Conclusion

Extreme flooding transcends a natural disaster; it poses a threat to our very sustenance. In the face of such challenges in the UK, it is imperative that farmers, policymakers, and communities collaborate.

Prompt action is essential to safeguard our food security and foster resilience for the future.

Building and farming on low-lying land, often on floodplains, is likely a big part of the problem, along with the potential effects of the ever-changing climate and weather patterns.

Safety valve

Low lying land has always flooded – isn’t it natures safety valve? We cohabit with nature and low-lying land, as good as it is for farming (and building), will always flood – as it has for thousands of years.

But we do need to do more to protect our food production in the UK.

Does the U.S. jobs boom raise doubts about rate cuts?

U.S. job creation vs inflation and interest rates

The U.S. economy is on a rip, with employers adding around 303,000 jobs in March 2024 – the largest increase in almost a year.

As the world’s largest economy continues to surge, questions arise about the Federal Reserve’s next move regarding interest rates.

Stronger-than-expected Job Growth

The unemployment rate fell to 3.8%, indicating strong job growth in several sectors such as health care, construction, and government. While economists had predicted job gains of approximately 200,000, the actual numbers have easily exceeded those expectations.

The labour market’s surprising resilience has caught analysts off guard, leading to speculation about the timing of interest rate cuts.

Fed’s Dilemma

The Federal Reserve has held interest rates in a range of 5.25%-5.5%, the highest level in over two decades. Initially, the Fed raised rates sharply in 2022 to curb inflationary pressures. However, the subsequent cooling of price inflation (down to 3.2% in February) without a significant spike in unemployment has complicated matters. The central bank now faces a delicate balancing act.

Delayed Rate Cuts?

The significant increase of 303,000 in non-farm payrolls for March 2024 reinforces the Federal Reserve’s stance that the robustness of the economy permits a gradual approach to interest rate reductions.

The Fed had been expected to initiate rate cuts this year to mitigate the impact of high borrowing costs. However, the stronger-than-anticipated economic performance suggests that rate cuts may not occur until the second half of this year.

Labour Market Dynamics

U.S. government spending in areas like high-tech manufacturing and infrastructure has bolstered the labor market. Additionally, an influx of more than three million immigrants last year has expanded the workforce, potentially keeping wage pressures in check. In March, average hourly pay rose by 4.1% year-on-year, consistent with expectations and near a three-year low.

America’s Comeback

President Joe Biden hailed the latest job figures as a “milestone in America’s comeback.” However, some market analysts argue that the strong jobs growth could complicate efforts to return inflation to the Fed’s 2% target. Some analysts even speculate that rate cuts may not materialize until 2025.

Global Implications

Higher U.S. interest rates have ripple effects worldwide, enticing investors to shift capital toward America. While the Fed’s in-tray still has some warnings, the delay in rate cuts reflects the economy’s underlying strength.

The U.S. jobs boom presents a conundrum for policymakers. Balancing economic vitality with inflation control remains a delicate task, and the Fed’s decisions will reverberate far beyond its borders.