Introducing the UK magic message government lectern

Magic message lecturn

‘Have you noticed everytime the government needs to persuade the public that their ‘message’ is so super important – they roll out the magic message lectern”.

Introducing the UK magic message government lectern

Other important messages

And this…

And this one…

The latest government slogan… ‘LONG-TERM DECISIONS FOR A BRIGHTER FUTURE’

Let’s roll out the advertisements to persuade the UK public the government knows best… again.

They convinced me!

Not!

It’s a joke!

The UK government is trying to peruade the public that the recent Sunak climate rollback decision is a good thing… ‘LONG-TERM DECISIONS FOR A BRIGHTER FUTURE’

Who are the kidding?

UK inflation in surprise fall, a ‘massive’ drop all of 0.1%

UK inflation

ONS says inflation dropped in August 2023

According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the UK’s inflation rate dropped unexpectedly in August 2023 to its lowest level since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which led to sharp rises in energy and food costs which were already on the rise due to the pandemic.

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 6.7% in the 12 months to August 2023, down from 6.8% in July. The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) rose by 6.3% in the 12 months to August 2023, down from 6.4% in July.

The ONS said that the main factors behind the fall in inflation were lower prices for clothing, footwear, and second-hand cars, partly offset by higher prices for transport services and recreational goods. 

UK Inflation 1989 – 2023 (ONS data)

The ONS also said that the inflation rate was still high compared with historical levels, and that it expected it to rise further in the coming months due to increases in energy bills and supply chain pressures.

You can find more details and data about the UK inflation and price indices on the ONS website or on the Consumer price inflation, UK: August 2023 time series.

Jeremy says its OK!

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said the news showed ‘the plan to deal with inflation is working’. Well Jeremy, your comments are encouraging – if you truly believe a 0.1% fall in inflation is ‘working‘. Where were you when the Bank of England lost control of the ‘2% inflation remit’.

UK inflation
‘Don’t worry – the money is being printed as we speak. Come and get your share now!’

Where were you when the excessive ‘uncontrolled’ government borrowing infected the UK’s economy? With all that ‘free’ money sloshing around the system, what did you really expect would happen..?

FTSE 100 enjoys best week of the year, September 2023

FTSE 100

FTSE 100 index

The FTSE 100 is the index of the 100 largest companies listed on the London Stock Exchange by market capitalization. It is one of the most widely used indicators of the UK economy and the performance of British businesses.

The FTSE 100 had its best week of the year in the week ending 15th September. The index closed at 7,711 points on 15th September 2023. This was the highest weekly gain of 2023.

FSTE 100 close Friday 15th September 2023

This was a strong end to the week, as the global stocks rally continued with a stable showing from Wall Street and an improvement in China.

Arm IPO led the way with a successful return tothe stock market.

Arm juggernaut of an IPO

Arm Holdings

Ultra successful IPO for arm

Investors gobbled up UK microchip designer Arm Holdings at its U.S. debut on the Nasdaq on 14th September 2023, sending its market value soaring to $60 billion (£48.3 billion).

The shares ended the day worth more than $63 each, after climbing by almost 25% from the high end start of $51 per share set by Arm.

The sale was the biggest initial public offering of the year, raising $4.87 billion for owner Softbank Group.

Despite some concerns surrounding the company’s exposure to risks in China and a potential AI slowdown – the shares soared.

British tech

A star of the British technology industry, Arm designs microchips for devices including smartphones and game consoles. It estimates that some 70% of the world’s population uses products that rely on its chips, including nearly all of the world’s smartphones. And with AI nestling in on the horizon, the future potential for Arm is massive.

Arm stock chart 14th September 2023

Arm said it expects the total market for its chip designs to be worth about $250 billion by 2025, including new growth areas such as data centres and cars.

Legacy

Many of Arm’s royalties come from products released decades ago. About half of the company’s royalty revenue of $1.68 billion in 2022, came from products released between 1990 and 2012.

Bright Future

The future looks bright for Arm but the company is trading at more than 25 times its most recent full year of revenue, and at more than 100 times profit.

And that could be where things get tricky for Arm in the not too distant future. Projections for future profits will be interesting, esecially if it’s to keep up with Nvidia for instance.

UK mortgage arrears by value climbs

Mortgage arrears

The value of UK mortgage arrears jumped by almost a third in April to June 2023 compared with the same period last year, according to the Bank of England (BoE).

Outstanding mortgage debt is now £16.9bn, the highest since 2016, it said.

Mortgage costs have risen for millions as the Bank has repeatedly hiked interest rates to slow soaring prices.

Some experts warn defaults will rise, but others say the number unable to repay remains relatively low.

According to the BoE, in April-June 16% of mortgages in arrears were new cases, which it said ‘was little changed compared to the previous quarter’.

It added that the proportion of mortgages in arrears was the highest since 2018.

See UK debt burden here

UK mortgage arrears
Debt burden – the value of UK mortgage arrears jumped by almost a third in April to June 2023

UK economy contracts July 2023 due to… rain!

UK GDP contracts

The UK economy shrank more than expected in July due to strike action taken by NHS workers, doctors and teachers – ONS data shows.

Wet weather also hit the construction and retail industries, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said, causing the economy to contract by 0.5%.

The figures were worse than analysts had predicted and continue a trend of weak economic growth in the UK.

Blame the weather and strike action for the contraction

Office for National Statistics (ONS) for UK GDP as at 13th September 2023..

Monthly real GDP is estimated to have fallen by 0.5% in July 2023, with falls in all three main sectors, following growth of 0.5% in June 2023.

GDP showed 0.2% growth in the three months to July 2023 when compared with the three months to April 2023, with growth in all three main sectors.

Services output was down 0.5% in July 2023, after growth of 0.2% in June 2023, and was the main contributor to the fall in GDP in July.

Production output fell by 0.7% in July 2023, after growth of 1.8% in June 2023.

The construction sector fell by 0.5% in July 2023, after growth of 1.6% in June 2023.

Not a recession, but the weather gets the blame for slowing up UK progress!

UK Superfund plan – KNOWHOW

Let the winners run!

The UK superfund plan is a new initiative launched by the Prime Minister and the Technology Secretary on 6 March 2023, with the aim of making the UK a global science and technology superpower by 2030.

The plan outlines key actions that will involve every part of the government

  • Identifying and pursuing strategic advantage in the technologies that are most critical to achieving UK objectives
  • Showcasing the UK’s S&T strengths and ambitions at home and abroad to attract talent, investment and boost our global influence
  • Boosting private and public investment in research and development for economic growth and better productivity
  • Building on the UK’s already enviable talent and skills base
  • Financing innovative science and technology start-ups and companies
  • Capitalising on the UK government’s buying power to boost innovation and growth through public sector procurementSshaping the global science and tech landscape through strategic international engagement, diplomacy and partnerships
  • Ensuring researchers have access to the best physical and digital infrastructure for R&D that attracts talent, investment and discoveries.

Government funding

The plan is backed by over £370 million in new government funding to support infrastructure, investment and skills for the UK’s most exciting growing technologies, such as quantum and supercomputing, AI, biotechnology, clean energy, space and robotics. The plan is expected to create high-paid jobs of the future, grow the economy in cutting-edge industries, and improve people’s lives from better healthcare to security.

Government funding for Superfund

The funding sources for the UK superfund plan are mainly from the government’s budget allocation for science and technology, which has increased by 50% since 2020 to reach £22 billion per year by 2024/25. The government has also committed to increase public spending on R&D to 2.4% of GDP by 2027, which is expected to leverage additional private sector investment. Moreover, the government has established a new agency called Advanced Research & Invention Agency (ARIA), which will have a budget of £800 million over four years to fund high-risk, high-reward research projects that could lead to breakthroughs in science and technology.

Foreign investment

The UK superfund plan also aims to attract more foreign direct investment (FDI) into the UK’s science and technology sector, by promoting the UK as a leading destination for innovation and showcasing its world-class research facilities, talent pool, regulatory environment and market opportunities. The government has set a target of increasing FDI stock in R&D from £45 billion in 2018 to £67 billion by 2025.

The UK superfund plan is a separate initiative from the superfund consolidators for defined benefit (DB) pensions, which are a new innovation in the UK pension industry. Transferring a DB pension scheme to a superfund can improve the security of members’ benefits by replacing a weak employer covenant with a capital buffer. The Pensions Regulator (TPR) has published guidance for trustees and sponsoring employers of UK DB pension schemes considering transacting with a superfund.

GB Savings One Fund

The GB Savings One Fund is a proposal by the Tony Blair Institute (TBI) to create the country’s first superfund for pensions. According to the TBI, the superfund would be an expansion of the Pension Protection Fund (PPF), which is a statutory fund that provides compensation to members of eligible defined benefit (DB) pension schemes in the UK when their employers become insolvent.

The UK Superfund

The Tony Blair Institute suggests that sponsors of the smallest 4,500 UK DB schemes would be offered the voluntary option of transferring to the PPF on a benefit preserving basis, which would improve the security and efficiency of their pensions.

The institute also proposes that the PPF model should be replicated and rolled out throughout the UK in a series of regional, not-for-profit entities that sit within a master governance structure under the existing fund or participate in consolidation in parallel with and modelled on the original GB Savings. 

The TBI argues that this approach would result in a modernised pension system that would generate better returns for pensioners, attract more investment and talent, and strengthen pensions for the entire generation stuck with inadequate provision since the closure of the DB funds over the past two decades.

GB Bank

The GB Savings One Fund is not related to GB Bank, which is a bank that offers competitive savings accounts that support residential and commercial developments in communities that need them most. GB Bank has a full UK banking licence and offers the same level of protection as the traditional high street banks. 

When you save with GB Bank, your money is protected up to £85,000 by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS).

UK debt, a perfect storm

UK Debt burden

Slow-Growing UK Faces Over £2.6 Trillion Debt Pile

£2,600,000,000,000 in debt

The amount the UK owes exceeds GDP for first time since 1961. Inflation-linked bonds mean the UK is paying more than its peers.

From the financial crisis to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the UK has borrowed and spent its way out of every jam. The bill for that is becoming a massive concern for the UK treasury and for the economy.

£2.6 trillion public debt

The UK’s public debt has soared by more than 40% to almost £2.6 trillion ($3.3 trillion) since the pandemic struck, leaving the country owing more than its entire annual economic output for the first time since 1961. A heavy reliance on index-linked bonds, at a time of high inflation, also means Britain will pay more to service the debt.

The high level of debt poses a risk to the UK’s credit rating, which could affect its borrowing costs and fiscal credibility. The three main credit-rating firms are due to update their assessments of the UK over the next four months in 2023, and some analysts are concerned that the UK could face a downgrade, especially after the U.S. lost its AAA status from Fitch. 

ONS data to March 2023

A downgrade could undermine Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s effort to rebuild Britain’s fiscal reputation after his predecessor, Liz Truss, triggered a bond-market crash in 2022 by promising huge unfunded tax cuts.

Bond sell-off pressure

The pressure on the UK’s finances is also being compounded by a selloff in bonds amid aggressive rate hikes by the Bank of England to quell inflation. The yield on the 10-year benchmark this week rose above 4.70% to its highest since 2008. 

UK debt higher than UK GDP March 2023

The UK bond market is among the developed world’s worst performers this year. The rise in yields could increase the cost of servicing the debt, which is already high due to the UK’s heavy reliance on index-linked bonds that adjust with inflation.

The UK’s economic growth is forecast to remain flat through next year, which limits the scope for reducing the debt through higher revenues or lower spending. The National Health Service is stretched to breaking point and the tax burden is already at a 70-year high. The ONS warned that debt could balloon to more than three times GDP over the next half century without action.

ONS data

According to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the UK’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.2% in the second quarter of 2023 (April to June), following a revised growth of 0.1% in the first quarter of 2023 (January to March). This means that the UK’s GDP growth rate for the whole year of 2023 is estimated to be 0.3%, which is lower than the previous forecast of 0.5%.

ONS data to March 2023

The main factors that contributed to the weak GDP growth in the second quarter were the slowdown in consumer spending, the decline in business investment, and the negative impact of the additional bank holiday in May due to the King’s Coronation. The services sector, which accounts for about 80% of the UK’s economy, grew by only 0.1% in the second quarter, while the production sector grew by 0.7%, and the construction sector fell by 0.2%.

Uncertain outlook in uncertain times

The outlook for the UK’s economy remains uncertain, as it faces several challenges such as high inflation, rising interest rates, a slowing global economy, and the ongoing effects of Brexit and the effects of the war in Ukraine. 

ONS data for EU countries

Some economists have warned that the UK faces a ‘very real risk’ of recession due to higher interest rates, which could dampen consumer and business confidence and increase the cost of servicing the debt. 

The OECD has projected that the UK’s GDP growth will improve moderately to 1.0% in 2024, but still remain below its pre-pandemic level.

89 UK security threats identified by National Risk Register

Security

The 89 threats to life in the UK are listed in a recent report called the National Risk Register (NRR), which was published by the Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden on 3rd August 2023. 

The NRR is an assessment of the risks facing the UK that would have a significant impact on the UK’s safety, security or critical systems at a national level. The NRR is based on the government’s internal, classified risk assessment and offers more detail on the potential scenarios, response and recovery options relating to the risks.

The 89 threats are divided into four categories: natural hazards, malicious attacks, accidents and system failures, and global events.

Some of the threats

  • Natural hazards: These include extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, floods, storms, droughts, and wildfires; geological hazards, such as earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, and landslides; biological hazards, such as pandemics, animal diseases, plant diseases, and invasive species; and space weather events, such as solar flares and geomagnetic storms.
  • Malicious attacks: These include terrorism, such as bombings, shootings, chemical weapons, biological weapons, radiological weapons, cyberattacks, and drones; espionage and sabotage, such as interference with critical infrastructure, communications, or data; and conflict and instability, such as war, nuclear weapons, state-sponsored attacks, civil unrest, and violent extremism.
‘Cyber security hack – just one of the potential risks facing the UK’.
  • Accidents and system failures: These include industrial accidents, such as explosions, fires, spills, or leaks; transport accidents, such as plane crashes, train derailments, ship collisions, or road collisions; infrastructure failures, such as power outages, water shortages, gas leaks, or internet disruptions; and technological failures, such as software bugs, hardware malfunctions, or AI errors.
  • Global events: These include economic crises, such as recessions, inflation, debt defaults, or trade wars; political crises, such as coups, revolutions, sanctions, or human rights violations; social crises, such as migration flows, refugee crises, humanitarian emergencies, or famines; and environmental crises, such as climate change, biodiversity loss, pollution, or resource depletion.

Threat level

The NRR also provides information on how likely each threat is to occur in the next five years (from very low to very high), how severe the impact would be on the UK (from minor to catastrophic), and what actions the government and other stakeholders are taking to prevent or mitigate the risks. 

The NRR is intended to help the public and businesses better understand and prepare for potential threats facing the country now and in the future.

UK inflation lower at 6.8% in July 2023 as energy costs fall

According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) – Inflation fell to 6.8% in the year to July 2023, down from 7.9% in June. A reduction was anticipated by analysts, and there are signs the cost of living could be easing finally, after figures on Tuesday revealed wages rose 7.8% annually between April and June 2023. But inflation and therefore prices remain high, placing pressure on household finances.

When the rate of inflation falls, it does not always mean that prices are coming down, but that they are likely to rise less quickly. A fall in gas and electricity prices last month helped drive inflation lower. The cost of some food food items, such as milk, bread and cereals had come down, but that food prices are still some 15% higher than they were in July 2022.

Core inflation

However, according to the ONS figures core inflation a figure which strips out the price of energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, remained unchanged in July at 6.9%. With inflation still more than three times the Bank of England’s 2% target, many ‘experts’ expect the UK’s central bank to raise interest rates again in September 2023.

The Bank has steadily hiked interest rates to 5.25%, the highest level in 15 years, meaning mortgage costs have jumped dramatically, but on the flipside savings rates have increased too for the first time since the financial crisis of 2008.

Working?

The Chancellor said July’s figures on the cost of living showed the action the government had taken ‘is working’.

Comment

Well… it’s ‘working‘ in the sense it is having the desired affect to reduce inflation – (that both the government and the Bank of England were way behind on) – but it isn’t helping the economy, as interest rates climb making it more expensive for businesses and consumers to function.

But, at least wages are going up now thanks to all the strikes! This will ultimately add more inflationary pressure in the short term.

Let the tinkering continue!

Britain to unlock £50 billion in pension funding for tech startups

Money in case

UK to unleash £50 billion in pension funding for tech startups

The U.K. government has unveiled a series of reforms that will allow pension funds to invest more in private and high-growth companies, especially in the tech sector. The move is expected to boost economic growth, support innovation and increase returns for future retirees.

The reforms include an agreement with the country’s largest defined contribution pension schemes to allocate 5% of assets in their default funds to unlisted equities by 2030. This could unlock up to £50 billion of investment in high-growth firms if all other defined contribution pension schemes follow suit, according to the government.

AI

The government will also create new investment vehicles that will give pensioners a stake in homegrown private companies, such as fintech and biotech startups, that have increasingly snubbed the London Stock Exchange and turned to foreign investors for cash. The aim is to make the U.K. a more attractive market for technology and a global leader in emerging fields like artificial intelligence.

The Treasury claimed that the reforms would not only help burgeoning industries, but could also result in higher returns for workers’ retirement funds. The government estimates that the average earner’s pension pot could rise up to 12% to as much as £16,000 with defined contribution pension schemes committing to more effective investments.

Unlock

The announcement comes amid criticism that the U.K. is losing its edge in technology and innovation, as evidenced by the recent decision of U.K. chip design giant Arm to list in New York rather than London. The chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, reportedly said that he wanted to make the U.K. ‘the world’s next Silicon Valley and a science superpower’ by unlocking investment from the U.K.’s £2.5 trillion pensions sector.

The reforms were welcomed by industry groups and experts, who said that they would help address the funding gap faced by many U.K. startups and scale-ups, and create more opportunities for long-term growth and value creation.

UK economy grows June 2023

UK GDP up April - June 2023

U.K. economy beat expectations with 0.2% growth in the second quarter, boosted by household consumption and manufacturing output, the Office for National Statistics said Friday.

Economists had expected U.K. GDP to level off in the second quarter, after a surprise increase of 0.1% in the first quarter, as the Bank of England’s monetary policy tightening took effect and as persistent inflation began to slow consumer demand.

The economy expanded by 0.5% in June 2023, beating a forecast of 0.2% growth. It follows monthly GDP growth of 0.1% in May and 0.2% in April. However, the strength of the June rise was partially attributed to warm weather, as well as the additional public holiday in May to celebrate the coronation of King Charles III.

Better than expected

GDP was lifted by 1.6% growth in manufacturing and 0.7% in production in the second quarter, while services grew by 0.1%.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) noted strong growth in household and government consumption in terms of expenditure. Both faced price pressures in the quarter, though this moderated from the previous three-month period.

UK GDP up in June 2023
Growth in June 2023 was stronger than expected at 0.5%

Growth in June 2023 was stronger than expected at 0.5%, showing a recovery when the economy lost one working day due to the national holiday in May. June’s warm weather also benefited the construction industry as well as pubs and restaurants. But the economy was impacted by strike action by NHS workers, doctors, railway unions and teachers. However, the figures for the three months and June in particular were better-than-expected.

What does it mean?

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is one of the most important tools for looking at the health of the economy, and is watched closely by the government and businesses. If the figure is increasing, that means the economy is growing and people are doing more work and getting a little bit richer, on average.

But if GDP is falling, then the economy is shrinking which can be bad news for businesses. If GDP falls for two quarters in a row, it is typically defined as a recession.

China’s exports take a dive!

China’s exports plunge

According to latest figures the country’s trade fell more sharply than expected in July 2023, as both global and domestic demand receded amid the pandemic and ongoing tensions with the United States.

China’s exports fell by 14.5% in July 2023 from a year ago, the biggest drop since February 2020, while imports dropped by 12.4%, according to Chinese data. This was much worse than the 5% decline in both exports and imports analysts were expecting.

Poor trade performance

Some of the reasons for the poor trade performance are the rising costs of raw materials, the global shortage of semiconductors, the Covid-19 outbreaks in some regions, and the U.S. sanctions on some Chinese companies. 

China’s trade with the U.S., its largest trading partner, fell in the first seven months of the year. The trade slump has added pressure on China to provide more support for the economy, which has lost momentum after a strong recovery in late 2020 and early 2021.

China’s trade drop July 2023 more than expected

China’s trade situation is also closely watched by other countries, as it reflects the health of the global economy and demand for goods. Some analysts have warned that China’s trade slowdown could signal a broader weakening of consumer spending in developed economies, which could lead to recessions later this year.  China’s trade data also has implications for inflation and monetary policy, as lower import prices could ease inflationary pressures and allow central banks to keep interest rates low.

China’s export to the U.S. and EU down

China’s exports to the U.S. plunged by 23.1% year-on-year in July 2023, while those to the European Union fell by 20.6%, CNBC analysis of customs data showed. Exports to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations fell by 21.4%, according to the data. Chinese imports of crude oil dropped by 20.8% in July from a year ago, while imports of integrated circuits fell by nearly 17%.

China’s imports from Russia fell by around 8% in July 2023 from a year ago, the data showed.

A slowdown in U.S. and other major economies’ growth has dragged down Chinese exports this year. Meanwhile, China’s domestic demand has remained subdued.

Growth areas

Among the few higher-value export categories that saw a significant increase in the first seven months of the year were: cars, refined oil, suitcases and bags. And for imports: paper pulp, coal products and edible vegetable oil were among the categories seeing significant growth in the January to July period from a year ago.

Hunt – caught in a trap

Chancellor

According to the chancellor Jeremy Hunt, the UK economy is caught in a trap

The UK and other advanced economies are facing a low-growth trap that is hard to escape. This means that the potential growth of the economy, which depends on factors such as productivity, innovation, investment, and labour force, is very low and insufficient to meet the demand and expectations of the people.

Brexit

The UK economy has been hit by huge global shocks that have disrupted its normal functioning and recovery. These include the Covid-19 pandemic, which caused lockdowns, restrictions, and health crises; the energy crisis, which led to soaring gas prices and supply shortages; and the Brexit transition, which created uncertainty and trade barriers.

Inflation

The UK economy is also struggling with high inflation, which erodes the purchasing power of consumers and businesses. Inflation is driven by various factors, such as rising energy costs, global supply chain bottlenecks, labour shortages, and pent-up demand.

Chancellor
‘Don’t you just love numbers?’

The Bank of England has raised interest rates to 5.25% as of August 2023 – the highest level since 2008, to curb inflation and maintain price stability. The Bank of England inflation target is 2%.

The plan?

The chancellor reportedly has vowed to stick to the plan that he believes will bring down inflation and boost growth in the long term.

He said that he will unveil a plan in the autumn statement that will show how the UK can break out of the low-growth trap and become one of the most entrepreneurial economies in the world. He also said that he will not ‘veer around like a shopping trolley‘ and change course in response to short-term pressures.

‘Everything is fine, nothing to see here!’

Downing Street No.10
Downing Street No.10
‘Everything is fine, nothing to see here!’

Dream or reality – did this really happen?

The party-gate scandal lead to SERVING members of the UK government being fined, including the then prime minster (since sacked by the party) – and the then chancellor of the exchequer (now our serving prime minister).

You really can’t make this stuff up.

It rains in the UK!

It rains in the UK!

Why are we so surprised when it rains in the UK?

Latest reports suggest that the number of people heading out to the shops fell for the first time in July in 14 years as the UK struggled with one of the wettest months on record.

Overall footfall was down by 0.3% (that doesn’t seem high to me) – in the first drop in July since 2009, latest reports suggest. High Streets were hit hardest but shopping centres and retail parks got a boost in visitor numbers.

Not all bad

Soft play areas and cinemas have enjoyed a business boost. Also holiday parks are taking last minute bookings as discounts are offered.

Aside from the rain, the rising cost of living and rail disruption were also behind the fall. Shoppers have been battling with one of the wettest Julys on record, according to provisional reports.

Don’t be too surprised when it rains in the UK

High Streets in coastal towns were especially hard hit, with footfall dropping 4.6%, as the rain kept people away from beaches.

July’s figures also appeared to demonstrate the harsh reality of the impact of interest rate rises on consumers, combined with rain and the continuing transport and rail turmoil traveller have to endure in the UK.

Moving on

Digressing from the real report here, which is the slowdown in UK shopping habits due to the rain – we ought to remember that in the South West there is a hose pipe ban. This ban has been in force since summer 2022! And, the UK looses excessive amounts of water through leaks.

Ironic isn’t it. All that rain and we just don’t store enough! How do other ‘hot’ countries manage? Anyway, at least we can go shopping, or not as the case may be!

UK house prices fall according to the Nationwide Building Society

UK House Price Drop

UK house prices dropped at their fastest annual pace for 14 years in July 2023, according to Nationwide.

The building society said house prices dropped by 3.8%, which is the biggest decline since July 2009. Nationwide said mortgage interest rates remain high, making affordability a difficult for house-buyers. Mortgage costs hit the highest level for 15 years in July 2023 as lenders grappled with inflation and uncertainty over rates set by the (BoE) Bank of England. The BoE recently raised interest rates by 0.5% to 5% in a belated efforet to curb rampant inflation which is currently well above the 2% target.

Average UK house £260,828

The average price of a home in the UK is £260,828 – 4.5% below the August 2022 peak. Many first-time buyers would welcome a drop in house prices, which have climbed in recent years, including during the pandemic.

But despite July’s fall, higher mortgage rates mean housing affordability ‘remains stretched‘, Nationwide said.

Real average house price data from 1975 – 2022*

*Indicative guide only (prices adjusted for inflation).

Euro Zone GDP & Inflation Improves in July 2023

Cash

EU Inflation 5.3% July 2023

Euro zone inflation fell in July, and new growth figures showed economic activity picking up in the second quarter of this year, but economists still fear a recession.

Headline inflation in the EU was 5.3% in July, according to preliminary data released end of July 2023, lower than the 5.5% registered in June. However, it still remains substantially above the European Central Bank’s 2% target.

EU GDP

GDP growth accelerated in the second quarter, expanding by 0.3%, higher than the 0.2% expected by analysts.

Oh no, not again!

UK Interest rate 5% and rising

The current interest rate in the UK is 5% as of June 2023.

This is the Bank Rate set by the Bank of England (BoE), which influences the interest rates that other banks charge borrowers and pay savers. The BoE has raised the Bank Rate 13 times in a row from 0.1% to 5% in a bid to control inflation, which is the rate at which the prices of goods and services increase over time. The BoE has a target of keeping inflation at 2%, but the current inflation rate is 8.7%, which is much higher than the target. This means that the purchasing power of money is decreasing and people have to pay more for the same things.

Summary

  • The Bank of England has increased the base rate to 5% – up from 4.5% in June 2023
  • It’s a bigger increase than most forecasters expected
  • The last time the base rate was 5% or higher was in 2008
  • Higher interest rates are intended to lower inflation, by giving mortgage-holders and consumers less to spend
  • The government’s target is to have inflation down to 5% by the end of the year
  • Rishi Sunak said: ‘I always said this would be hard – and clearly it’s got harder over the past few months’ I am totally, 100%, on it, and it’s going to be OK
  • Seven of the nine members of the bank’s committee voted for the 5% rate – two wanted no change at all

Bank of England mission statement

Promoting the good of the people of the United Kingdom by maintaining monetary and financial stability.

Meet our new policy adviser

Well, the BoE has clearly done a good job here then with the UK interest rate now at 5%, again… and inflation at 8.7% after peaking at 11.1% in November 2022, a 41 year high! Great job!

And the UK PM said, ‘I always said this would be hard – and clearly it’s got harder over the past few months. I am totally, 100%, on it, and it’s going to be OK‘.

That’s good to know then – it’s going to be OK – so reassuring for borrowers! It’s going to be OK, so don’t worry!

Sorry PM, but that is so weak it’s bordering pathetic. Weren’t you the chancellor too?