Tag: UK

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UK predicted to have slowest growth of richest nations in 2025

Slow growth in UK

Forecasts indicate that the UK economy will experience sluggish growth among the largest developed nations in 2025.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has projected a 1% increase in the UK’s gross domestic product (GDP) for 2025, which lags behind the growth rates of other G7 nations, including Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the US.

The OECD, a globally recognised think tank, has described the UK’s economic outlook as ‘sluggish‘ for the current year. The organization attributes the lackluster performance to the cumulative effects of consecutive interest rate hikes in the UK.

Additionally, the OECD has cautioned that persistent elements of high inflation and the uncertainty surrounding the Bank of England’s interest rate decisions may deter investment.

The latest forecast for the UK economy predicts a 0.4% growth for this year, a revision downward from the OECD’s earlier estimate of 0.7% growth. Consequently, Germany is the only G7 country projected to have slower growth than the UK this year.

Year on year economic growth predictions for G7 nations from the OECD

Year on year economic growth predictions for G7 nations from the OECD
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FTSE 100 closes at new all-time high

FTSE 100 Index

The UK FTSE 100 stock index has reached a new record closing price on Monday 22nd April 2024

The new all-time high was likely propelled by a weakening pound and reduced tensions in the Middle East. The FTSE 100 has been the laggard for many months.

The index concluded Monday at 8023 points, setting a new record and eclipsing its previous peak of 8012 from February of the preceding year.

At the close, it had risen by 1.62%, with retailers such as, Tesco, Sainsbury’s, M&S and Ocado being among the top gainers of the day.

The shares have gained from the depreciating pound since the London Stock Exchange index includes numerous companies with significant international operations.

A depreciated pound lowers the cost of exported goods for overseas buyers and boosts the value of international business transactions.

Update

On Tuesday morning 23rd April 2024 the FTSE 100 climbed to a new intraday high of: 8080

FTSE 100 5 day chart showing the intraday high of Tuesday morning 23rd April 2024
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IMF says Russia is expected to grow faster than all advanced economies in 2024

Oil

The International Monetary Fund calculates that Russia’s economy will expand more rapidly than all advanced economies this year.

According to the latest World Economic Outlook released by the IMF, Russia’s economy is projected to expand by 3.2% in 2024.

This growth outpaces the anticipated growth rates for the U.S. at 2.7%, the U.K. at 0.5%, Germany at 0.2%, and France at 0.7%.

G7 growth percentages

  • Russia at 3.2%
  • U.S. at 2.7%
  • France at 0.7%
  • U.K. at 0.5%
  • Germany at 0.2%

The forecast may be galling for Western countries that have endeavoured to economically isolate, restrict and punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Russia has demonstrated that Western sanctions on its industries have made it more self-sufficient and that private consumption and domestic investment remain resilient.

Oil exports

Oil and commodity exports to nations such as India and China, (two of the largest countries in the world by population) – as well as alleged sanction evasion and high oil prices, have allowed Russia to maintain strong oil export incomes streams.

UK and Europe growth

Outside of Russia, the IMF has revised its forecasts for Europe and the UK, projecting a growth of 0.5% for this year. This positions the UK as the second-lowest performer within the G7 group of advanced economies, trailing behind Germany.

The G7 also includes France, Italy, Japan, Canada and the U.S.

However, UK growth is expected to improve to 1.5% in 2025, placing the UK in the top three best G7 performers, according to the IMF.

The IMF also reported said that interest rates in the UK will remain higher than other advanced nations, close to 4% until 2029.

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Bank of England school report: must try harder – a brutal analysis of ‘out of date’ systems

Bank of England forecasts

The Bank of England (BoE) stands as a bastion of economic stability, guiding the United Kingdom through the ebbs and flows of financial tides. 

Modernising the Bank of England’s forecasting system has become a critical necessity. A recent independent review has cast a spotlight on the ‘serious deficiencies’ within its economic forecasting system, calling for an urgent modernisation.

Out of date forecasting methods

What have they all been doing for all these years to not have updated their systems?

The review, led by Dr. Ben Bernanke, a former chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, paints a picture of an institution grappling with outdated systems and under-investment in critical infrastructure. The Bank’s staff, the report suggests, are hindered by software that is not just out-of-date but also complicates the already intricate task of economic forecasting.

This revelation comes at a time when accurate economic forecasting is more vital than ever. The world is still reeling from the effects of the pandemic, the 2008/2009 financial crisis and the UK faces unique challenges post-Brexit. The Bank’s ability to predict economic trends accurately is paramount in crafting policies that safeguard the nation’s financial health.

Deficiencies

The deficiencies highlighted are not just a matter of outdated software; they reflect a deeper need for a paradigm shift in how economic data is handled and analysed. The report recommends a complete overhaul of the system, emphasizing the need for automation of tasks that are currently performed manually.

Governor Andrew Bailey’s reportedly responded to the review by acknowledging the gravity of the situation, stating that updating the Bank’s systems is a ‘high priority’. This commitment to modernisation is a step in the right direction, but it should be followed by swift and decisive action, surely.

A broken compass?

The Bank of England’s forecasting system is more than a tool; it is the compass by which the nation navigates its economic future. Modernising this system is not just a recommendation; it is an imperative. As the UK charts its course in a rapidly changing global economy, the reliability and sophistication of its economic forecasting are not just beneficial but essential for continued prosperity.

In conclusion, the Bank of England’s economic forecasting system is at a crossroads. The call to modernise is clear, and the path forward must be paved with innovation, investment, and a steadfast commitment to excellence in economic stewardship.

The future of the UK’s economy depends on it.

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Latest UK pay growth and unemployment data

UK jobs

The latest figures on UK pay growth and unemployment present a complex picture of the country’s labour market.

The unemployment rate has seen a slight uptick to 4.2%, a rise from the previous 3.9%. This increase, which is more than anticipated, suggests a softening in the labour market.

Conversely, wage growth appears to be resilient in the face of rising unemployment. Although core wage growth has decelerated, it remains in the region of 6%. This could indicate that employers are maintaining competitive wages to attract and retain skilled workers, even amidst a slowing labour market.

Employment dipped according to the ONS

The ONS said employment rate dipped to 74.5% between December and February and the percentage of 16 to 64 year-olds defined as economically inactive rose from 21.8% to 22.2%, which equates to 9.4 million people.

In February 2024, the average weekly earnings were estimated at £677 for total earnings and £633 for regular earnings. This equates to an annual growth in regular earnings (excluding bonuses) of 6.0%, and annual growth in employees’ average total earnings (including bonuses) of 5.6%.

Adjusting for inflation using CPIH

However, when adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH), the real terms growth for regular pay was 1.9%, and for total pay was 1.6%. This implies that while nominal wages are increasing, the real purchasing power of these wages may not be keeping up with inflation.

Bank of England

The Bank of England will likely approach this data with caution. The combination of increasing unemployment and slowing wage growth could be indicative of a weakening economy, potentially prompting the Bank to contemplate rate cuts.

The response of the Bank of England to these trends will be pivotal in the forthcoming months.

Summary

In summary, the UK labour market is exhibiting signs of cooling with an increase in unemployment and a slowdown in wage growth. However, wages continue to grow at a relatively high rate. The real impact on workers will hinge on how these wage increases stack up against inflation.

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UK economy grew by 0.1% in February 2024

UK economy

One tenth of 1% is very little but we can at least hope the UK is on it’s on way out of recession

Let’s blame the weather

The economy grew by 0.1%, figures show, boosted by production and manufacturing in areas such as the car sector. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that construction was dampened by wet weather.

The official ONS statistics also revised its previous estimate for January 2024 from 0.2% growth up to 0.3%.

Hunt is happy with 0.1% growth…?

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt reportedly suggested that the new figures were a “welcome sign that the economy is turning a corner”. “We can build on this progress if we stick to our plan,” he added.

That’s good then Jeremy – well done you, nice plan!

UK growth February 2024 at 0.1%

UK growth February 2024 at 0.1%
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UK recession confirmed but early signs of green shoots of recovery have been seen

UK recovery

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has released updated UK GDP figures, confirming that the UK entered a technical recession in the last six months of the previous year.

The new data shows the economy contracted by 0.1% in the three months from June to August 2023, with a further decline of 0.3% in the subsequent financial quarter from September to December 2023. The overall economy grew by 0.1% throughout 2023.

However, early signs suggest that the UK began to recover in January 2024, with initial data indicating some growth, and surveys suggesting this trend may have gained momentum into February and March 2024.

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UK inflation down to 3.4% in February 2024

UK inflation

In February 2024, inflation decreased to 3.4%, a decline from January’s 4%, moving closer to the Bank of England’s self-imposed target of 2%


This reduction signifies that the cost of living is increasing at its least rapid rate since September 2021, when it was recorded at 3.1%.

Since reaching a peak of 11.1% in October 2022, the highest in 40 years, inflation has been on a steady decline. In the big inflation picture, that’s a pretty good result.

It has only taken around 16 months to move the rate from 11.1% (a 40-year high) down to just 1.4% above the BoE’s target of 2%.

The primary factor contributing to this decrease, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), is the deceleration of food price inflation.

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More than 20% of UK adults not seeking work

Not working

More than a fifth of working-age adults in the UK are currently not actively seeking employment, according to recent figures.

The economic inactivity rate during the period from November 2023 to January 2024 stood at 21.8%, a slight increase compared to the previous year. This means that approximately 9.2 million people aged between 16 and 64 are neither employed nor actively searching for jobs. The total figure has risen by over 700,000 since before the onset of the coronavirus pandemic.

Several factors contribute to this problem

Long-Term Illness: Approximately one-third of the working-age population not participating in the labour force cite long-term illness as the primary reason for their inactivity. Health-related issues have kept a significant portion of the population away from work.

The pandemic: of 2020 caused work flight. 700,000 extra out of the workplace since the coronavirus pandemic Covid 19 hit the UK in 2020.

Students and Education: Students pursuing education are often classified as economically inactive. Their focus on studies and lack of job-seeking activity contribute to this category.

Care Responsibilities: Individuals who care for family members or manage household responsibilities fall into this bracket. Caring duties can be time-consuming and prevent active job hunting.

People with Disabilities: Those with disabilities may face barriers in accessing employment opportunities. Accommodations and inclusive policies are essential to address this issue.

Early Retirement: Some adults choose early retirement, and once retired, they rarely express a desire to return to work. This group contributes significantly to the inactive population.

Discouraged Workers: Individuals who have given up on job searches due to discouragement or lack of suitable opportunities are also part of this category.

Gender Gap: Historically, more women have been classified as economically inactive compared to men. However, this gap has narrowed over the years as more women have entered the workforce.

Age Trends: Recent data indicates that while the number of economically inactive individuals due to illness has decreased, there has been an increase among those aged 16 to 34. Mental health issues are believed to be a contributing factor in this age group.

Persistently high level

The persistently high level of economic inactivity poses challenges for the UK economy. As the country emerges from the pandemic, addressing workforce shortages becomes crucial. Measures such as reducing National Insurance Contributions and extending free childcare services aim to encourage people to seek employment or increase their working hours. 

More effort is needed to further incentivise workforce participation, if not, the UK economy will suffer for many more years than would otherwise be necessary.

Office for national statistics

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Fact or fiction? Oxford University is older than the Aztec Empire

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Fact or Fiction?

Oxford University, founded in the 12th century, stands as a beacon of scholarship and tradition. Its roots trace back to 1096 during William II’s reign. The university is approximately 230 years older than the Aztec Empire.

Teaching would have likely existed in some form within its hallowed halls. Imagine those early scholars, their minds ablaze with curiosity, gathering under the ancient spires.

Now, let’s compare this age to another remarkable entity: the Aztec civilization. The Aztecs flourished around the 14th century. Their vibrant culture, intricate temples, and awe-inspiring pyramids came some 230 years after the university was established.

Imagine the scene: while Oxford’s dons debated philosophy, the Aztecs were constructing Tenochtitlan, their magnificent capital. As Oxford’s colleges took shape, the Aztecs were creating intricate codices and performing sacred rituals.

Oxford University, with its nine centuries of continuous existence, predates the Aztec Empire by several lifetimes: a testament to the enduring quest for knowledge across civilizations.

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UK swings to economic growth in January 2024

UK economy

The economy grew by 0.2%, ONS figures show, boosted by sales in shops and online and from more construction activity.

Hopefully this means the UK is on its way out of recession.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the services sector led the bounce back.

This is an early dataset, but demonstrates how the UK, which entered recession at the end of 2023, is faring.

ONS data suggests UK could be exiting a short-lived ‘technical’ recession

UK swings to economic growth in January 2024
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New UK British ISA announced in the March 2024 budget

British ISA

The new UK British ISA 

UK chancellor Jeremy Hunt revealed the British ISA as part of the Spring Budget 2024.

The British ISA aims to boost demand for UK businesses and encourage investment in UK-focused assets.

Key Features

Additional Allowance

The British ISA provides a separate £5,000 annual allowance in addition to the existing £20,000 ISA allowance.

Tax Advantages

Like other ISAs, investors in the British ISA will not pay tax on capital gains or income.

Investment Focus

While it’s not yet clear whether the new ISA will be exclusively for UK shares, it is expected to support UK-focused funds and investment trusts.

Eligibility Uncertainty

The inclusion of UK gilts or UK corporate bonds remains uncertain.

Consultation Period

The consultation period for the British ISA runs until June 6, 2024.

Potential Impact – Reviving UK Stock Market

The British ISA aims to revive interest in the UK stock market, which has faced challenges since the Brexit vote in 2016.

Supporting UK Companies

By providing tax-free savings opportunities, the ISA encourages investment in UK businesses.

Fund Industry Support

Fund management firms, including Premier Miton, lobbied for the British ISA’s creation.

Historical Context

The British ISA draws parallels with its predecessor, the personal equity plan (PEP), which focused on UK shares and funds.

ISAs replaced PEPs in 1999.

Conclusion

In summary, the British ISA introduces an additional allowance for UK-focused investments, supporting savers and UK companies alike. Its impact on the stock market and investor sentiment remains to be seen, but it represents a step toward bolstering the UK’s economic landscape

By ensuring that companies are valued fairly, a stronger stock market will facilitate the capital raising process for companies that seek to grow and attract more listings. This will have a positive impact on the economy and employment and is ultimately in everyone’s interest.

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Famous London landmark sold to U.S. bidder

Iconic BT Tower

British telecoms group BT said Wednesday 21st February 2024 that it had agreed to sell London’s iconic BT Tower – once an important piece of network infrastructure

It has been sold to developer MCR Hotels for £275 million ($346.6 million).

The 189-meter structure has loomed over the capital city’s central Fitzrovia since 1965, when it opened as the Post Office tower.

It carried telecommunications signals from London to the rest of the country, but its microwave aerials were made redundant more than a decade ago.

It was also known for a revolving restaurant on its 34th floor, which took 22 minutes to complete a rotation.

MCR Hotels owns 150 properties, including the TWA Hotel located in the former TWA Flight Centre at JFK International Airport in New York, USA.

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UK posts record budget surplus in January 2024

Red brief case

The U.K. logged a record £16.7 billion net budget surplus in January 2024, according to official figures released on Wednesday 21st February 2024

The Office for National Statistics noted that the country’s public finances usually run a surplus in January, unlike during other months, as receipts from annual self-assessment tax returns come in.

Combined self-assessment income and capital gains tax receipts totaled £33 billion in January, the ONS noted, down £1.8 billion from the same period of last year.

Total government tax receipts came in at a record £90.8 billion, up £2.9 billion compared to January 2023.

Government borrowing during the financial year spanning to the end of January 2024 was £96.6 billion, £3.1 billion lower than over the same 10-month period a year ago and £9.2 billion lower than the £105.8 billion previously forecast by the independent Office for Budget Responsibility.

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Big tech vows action on ‘fake’ AI in elections

Fake AI news

Most of the world’s largest tech companies, including Microsoft, Amazon and Google have agreed to tackle what they are calling deceptive artificial intelligence (AI) in elections

The tech accord

The twenty companies have signed an accord committing them to fighting voter-deceiving content. They say they will deploy technology to detect and counter the material.

The Tech Accord to Combat Deceptive Use of AI in 2024 Elections was announced at the Munich Security Conference on Friday 16th February 2024.

The issue has come into sharp focus because it is estimated up to four billion people will be voting this year in countries such as the U.S., UK and India.

Technology to mitigate risk

Among the accord’s pledges are commitments to develop technology to mitigate risks related to deceptive election content generated by AI, and to provide transparency to the public about the action firms have taken.

Other steps include sharing best practice with one another and educating the public about how to spot when they might be seeing manipulated content.

Signatories include social media platforms X, Snap, Adobe and Meta, the owner of Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp.

Proactive

However, the accord has some shortcomings, according to computer scientist Dr Deepak Padmanabhan, from Queen’s University Belfast, who has co-authored a report on elections and AI.

But he reportedly said they needed to take more proactive action instead of waiting for content to be posted before then seeking to take it down.

That could mean that realistic AI content, that may be more harmful, may stay on a platform for longer compared to obvious fakes which are easier to detect and remove, he suggested.

Target

The accord’s signatories say they will target content which deceptively fakes or alters the appearance, voice, or actions of key figures in elections.

It will also seek to deal with audio, images or videos which provide false information to voters about when, where, and how they can vote.

We have a responsibility to help ensure these tools don’t become weaponised in elections, Brad Smith, the president of Microsoft is reported to have said.

These measures, in my opinion, are a sticking plaster and will not stop the spread of dishonest and fake news!

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UK inflation holds steady at 4%, lower than expected

UK inflation statistics

The UK’s inflation rate remained at 4% in January 2024, despite the first monthly fall in food prices in two years, ONS figures show.

January U.K. inflation held steady at 4% year-on-year benefitting from easing prices for furniture and household goods, food and non-alcoholic beverages.

According to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages fell on a monthly basis by 0.4%, marking the first decrease since September 2021.

The core CPI figure excluding volatile food, energy, alcohol and tobacco prices annual reading was 5.1%, below the 5.2% estimate – but only a micro 0.1% difference.

The latest inflation data is a reflection of what is happening in the labour market: a tight labour supply is sustaining high wage growth and thus underlying inflationary pressure.

Inflation still sits double the BoE target of 2%.

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Bank of England holds interest rate at 5.25%

BoE

UK interest rates have been left unchanged at 5.25% by the Bank of England as widely expected by commentators.

It is the fourth time in a row the Bank has held rates at 5.25%.

The Bank of England had previously raised rates 14 times in a row to curb inflation, leading to increases in mortgage rates but also creating better rates for savers.

Interest rate chart from 2007 to January 2024 demonstrates just how low interest were between 2009 and 2022

Interest rate chart from 2007 to January 2024 demonstrates just how low interest were between 2009 and 2022

Attitude shift

There is a noticeable shift in opinion as the committee entertained the possibility of discussing the feasibility of cuts.

There was a three-way split, with two members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voting to increase the bank rate to 5.5%; one to reduce it to 5%; and six were in favour of sticking with 5.25%.

With inflation falling it is very likely the interest rates will be reduced by 0.25% by March 2024. Just take a look at the reduction in savers rates that have already occurred.

The anticipation is for a rate reduction soon.

The clue is that savers rates are being cut.

But

The Bank of England Governor, Andrew Bailey, has made clear that for him the key question is: ‘For how long should we keep rates at the current level?’

There may be disappointment ahead then – but a rate cut is next and I still expect it by Easter.

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Tax cuts are coming, it must be election time again

Tax man

Spinning the benefits of a tax cut scenario as Chancellor Jeremy Hunt hints at further tax cuts

The Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, has given strong hints that he wants to cut taxes in the spring Budget.

Mr Hunt reportedly said that countries with lower taxes have more ‘dynamic, faster growing economies.‘ Didn’t Liz Truss say something like that too? But of course, she didn’t ‘cost it out’ in her mini budget apparently – but she also wanted lower taxes for growth none-the-less.

Autumn statement

In the Autumn Statement, the chancellor reduced national insurance for workers by 2% and announced tax relief for businesses. If inflation falls, followed by lower interest rates, Mr Hunt may consider he has scope for further tax cuts.

At the World Economic Forum, in Davos, Switzerland – he was also reported to have said that the: ‘direction of travel’ indicates that economies growing faster than the UK, in North America and Asia tend to have lower taxes. ‘I believe fundamentally that low-tax economies are more dynamic, more competitive and generate more money for public services like the NHS,’ he reportedly said.

It is widely expected that the chancellor will focus on income tax in the upcoming Budget due on 6th March 2024

Lower than expected government borrowing last month has increased the possibility of tax cuts in the Budget, analysts say.

UK Borrowing fell to £7.8bn in December 2023, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) indicated. Interest payments dropped sharply due to a faster than expected decline in inflation. Analysts said the latest figures could give the chancellor more wiggle room for tax cuts.

December’s borrowing figure was £8.4bn less than a year earlier, and the lowest figure for the month since 2019.

Interest payments on government debt fell to £4bn, down by £14.1bn from December 2022.

Tax man
‘I hope you have some juicy tax cuts for me?’
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UK retail sales fall. Sharpest rate since Covid lockdowns

UK retail

Retail sales volumes fell by 3.2% in December in the sharpest drop since the UK was in a Covid lockdown says the ONS.

Official figures revealed a sharp decline in demand for goods, but surprisingly food sales also declined in the run-up to Christmas.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said it appeared people did their shopping earlier in November, taking advantage of Black Friday sales.

The latest ONS data indicates that sales tumbled at the fastest rate since January 2021.

Monthly change in UK retail sales 2019 – 2023

UK retail sales fall at sharpest rate since Covid lockdowns
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UK inflation ticks up slightly in January 2024

Beer inflation

Inflation, rose marginally to 4% in December, up from 3.9% in November 2023.

Economists had forecast a slight fall but unexpected rises in alcohol and tobacco prices were behind the surprise rise.

However, with energy bills predicted to come down in 2024, there are still expectations of interest rate cuts later this year.

On target still for 2%?

As we have seen in the Germany, the U.S., and France, inflation does not fall in a straight line, ‘but our plan is working and we should stick to it,‘ Jeremy Hunt reportedly said in a statement.

UK inflation from April 2019 to December 2023

UK inflation from April 2019 to December 2023

Unprepared for both the start and the end of the pandemic

Increases in the cost of energy and food costs, started by pandemic lockdowns ending exasperated further by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and more recently the conflict in Israel have put household finances under extreme pressure.

The UK and other countries were woefully underprepared for all of these events as they ‘began’ and at the ‘end’. We did not prepare to come out of them – there was no exit plan!

Markets and traders are still expecting BoE to cut its base rate in 2024 due to the fast-falling inflation rate. It peaked at 11.1% in October 2022 – and now sits at 4%.

The question is: will the economic recovery be good enough to allow the Bank of England to start cutting rates?

The UK interest rate currently sits at 5.25%.

Beer inflation
‘What’s inflation?’ ‘Dunno, but my beer’s gone up!’
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Congratulations to NEXT

UK High Street

The bumper festive period led to the High Street giant to raise its profit forecast by 5% to £960m for 2024. NEXT has about 460 outlets in the UK and Ireland.

The company also expects sales to grow by 3% in 2024/25 but warned that attacks on shipping in the Red Sea could cause delays and disruptions to its stock supply.

NEXT’s full price sales were up 5.7% in the nine weeks to 30th December, £38 million ahead of its previous guidance of 2%.

The company’s share price closed at: 8146.00 on 29th December 2023, as of 4th January 2024 the share price was: 8550.

Three months share price data for NEXT.

Is this an indication of better news for the UK high street in general?

Congratulations NEXT.

UK retail sales hit 2023 low – see report.

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Wind power is being wasted adding £40 to household energy bills, according to think tank

Wind turbine and battery

Wasted wind power will add £40 to the average UK household’s electricity bill in 2023, according to a think tank.

That figure could increase to £150 in 2026, Carbon Tracker has estimated.

When it is very windy, the grid cannot handle the extra power generated. So, wind farms are paid to switch off and gas-powered stations are paid to fire up. The cost is passed on to consumers.

The government said major reforms will halve the time it takes to build energy networks to cope with extra wind power. Energy regulator Ofgem announced new rules in November 2023, which it said would speed up grid connections.

Bottleneck

Most of the UK’s offshore wind farms are in England. Dogger Bank, off the coast of Yorkshire is the largest in the world. Meanwhile, around half of onshore wind farms are in Scotland but most electricity is used in south-east England.

Carbon Tracker said the main problem in getting electricity to where it is needed is a bottleneck in transmission.

Wind curtailment

The practice of switching off wind farms and ramping up power stations is known as wind curtailment. This cost is passed on to consumers, it said. Carbon Tracker researches the impact of climate change on financial markets. It said since the start of 2023, wind curtailment payments cost £590m, adding £40 to the average consumer bill.

It warned the costs were set to increase adding £180 per year to bills by 2030. Wind farms are being built faster than the power cabling needed to carry the electricity.

Cable issue

‘The problem is, there are not enough cables. The logical solution would be to build more grid infrastructure,‘ said an analyst at Carbon Tracker. ‘It’s not even that expensive,’ he added, compared with mounting wind curtailment costs.

Industry group RenewableUK reportedly said that grid constraints, ‘reflect a chronic lack of investment in the grid.’

‘We need to move from a grid which is wasteful, to one that’s fit for purpose as fast as possible.’

However, historically it has taken between 10 and 15 years for new transmission cables to be approved.

Maybe more battery storage plants around the UK would help reduce the bottlenecks? As renewable power continues to expand, this would enable the extra power to be stored to use later.

This would be better than firing up antiquated fossil fuel power plants.

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New HMRC UK tax rules for online sellers

Tax

Are you selling online and making a little extra income?

Well, if you are, as from 1st January 2024 you will now fall foul of UK tax rules if you do not declare the income generated from these sales.

Companies like Etsy, eBay, Vinted, Airbnb etc. are obliged to collect and share details of such transactions with the tax authorities. That will allow HMRC to zero in on anyone who should be declaring the extra income but isn’t.

While HMRC was already able to request information from UK-based online operators, from the start of this year there are new rules that the UK has signed up to in cooperation with the OECD – Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, as part of a global effort to clamp down on tax evasion.

New rules

The new rules require digital platforms to report the income sellers are getting through their site on a regular basis.

It will apply to sales of goods such as second-hand clothes and items that have been handcrafted, but also services such as: food delivery, taxi hire, freelance work and accommodation lets or even renting out your driveway for parking.

Rule summary

  • Online sellers already paying tax do not need to alter what they are already doing.
  • Individuals have a £1,000 tax-free allowance for money made through property.
  • There is also a £1,000 allowance for trading income – for example, if you offer tutoring or gardening, or if you are selling new or second-hand items online.
  • People earning below those thresholds may not have to fill in a tax return, but should keep records in case they are asked for them.

The information will be shared between countries that have signed up to the OECD tax rules.

The UK government said the new rules would help it ‘bear down on tax evasion’, as sellers on digital platforms would now be treated more like traditional businesses.

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UK house prices 1.8% lower in 2023, says Nationwide

House prices down in 2023 says Nationwide

House prices have ended the year 1.8% lower in the UK, according to Nationwide Building Society

The Nationwide forecasts no growth or a further fall in 2024.

The lender said the average house price across the UK was £257,443 in December 2023. This was flat compared to November 2023 but down compared to December 2022.

The lender reportedly said that consumer confidence ‘remains weak’, despite some mortgage rates falling in anticipation for Bank of England (BoE) to cut borrowing costs in the months ahead.

The number of housing transactions has been running at around 10% below pre-Covid levels, Nationwide reported. The fall was more pronounced for those buying a house using a mortgage – down 20% compared to before the pandemic.

However, the volume of cash deals continues to run above the levels recorded before Covid hit.

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UK recession risk

UK recession risk!

The UK is at risk of recession after revised figures indicate the economy shrank between July and September 2023.

A recession is defined as when the economy shrinks for two three-month periods in a row.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which measures the health of the economy, contracted by 0.1% after previous estimates suggested growth has been flat. There was no growth between April and June 2023, after it was first calculated to have risen by 0.2%.

There have been concerns over the UK’s weak economic growth for a while now, but the UK has managed to avoid a recession so far. Whether or not there is a small recession, the bigger picture for analysts is that they expect real GDP growth to remain subdued throughout 2024. However, bear in mind that projections and forecasts do change, as already demonstrated.

Earlier this week, data showed that inflation, which measures the rate of price rises, slowed by more than expected to 3.9% in the year to November 2023, down from 4.6% in the previous month.

Forecasts do change…