Bitcoin jumped briefly on Tuesday 9th January 2024 after a post on the U.S. markets SEC regulator’s ‘X’ account post said it had approved the Exchange-Traded Funds (ETF’s) in the cryptocurrency.
This was a big news event for the cryptocurrency community and for the wider investment world. Large and small investors have been eagerly awaiting this news for months. When it finally arrived, it turned out to be fake.
U.S. regulators are expected to make an announcement on the new ETF’s this week.
The social media platform ‘X’ refuted the accusation that its systems had been the reason for the ‘compromise’.
Fake post
The fake news post appeared on the SEC’s official X account shortly after 16:00 Washington time (21:00 GMT). It said the regulator ‘grants approval for #Bitcoin ETFs for listing on all registered national securities exchanges.’ The post was immediately on the general social media radar and business news outlets.
SEC’s chair Gary Gensler quickly posted a message correcting the erroneous announcement on his personal ‘X’ account: “The @SECGov twitter account was compromised, and an unauthorized tweet was posted. The SEC has not approved the listing and trading of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products.”
‘The SEC has determined that there was unauthorized access to and activity on the @SECGov x.com account by an unknown party for a brief period of time shortly after 4 pm ET. and that the unauthorized access has been terminated,’ it was reported.
Bitcoin jumped
Bitcoin jumped to touch $48,000 (£37,800) immediately after the erroneous post before falling back to around $45,500
Bitcoin jumped to ouch $48,000 (£37,800) immediately after the erroneous post before falling back to around $45,000
Investors are eagerly anticipating an SEC announcement on the potential approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which is expected this week.
It would mark a key milestone for the cryptocurrency market in gaining acceptance to mainstream financial markets.
Crypto related stocks climbed Monday 8th January 2024 as the price of Bitcoin increased again to its highest level since April 2022.
Crypto exchange Coinbase rose 3%, while Block and Robinhood, which also offer Bitcoin trading services, added 3% and 5%, respectively. Mining stocks enjoyed gains too: Marathon Digital and Riot Platforms advanced some 8% each. CleanSpark and Iris Energy both added 6%.
ETF decision closer
Bitcoin rallied above $47,000 as BlackRock, Grayscale and other potential Bitcoin ETF issuers submitted final updates to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), that bolstered investors’ confidence that a likely positive decision is due soon.
Bitcoin 24-hour chart Monday 8th – Tuesday 9th January 2024
Bitcoin surged Monday and Tuesday 1st and 2nd January 2024, climbing above $45,000 to hit its highest level in nearly 21 months, as the rally in cryptocurrencies continues. Other cryptocurrencies have joined in the rally, with Ether and Solana both rising.
Traders are anticipating the potential approval of a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the U.S., as well as the upcoming Bitcoin ‘halving’ due to happen in May 2024.
For true cryptocurrency bulls, the most lucrative investments in 2023 were in the stock market.
While Bitcoin rallied over 150% for the year, shares of Coinbase, Marathon Digital, MicroStrategy and the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, which are all tied closely to the digital currency, did substantially better, rising more than 300% in value. Bitcoin miner Marathon Digital soared some 688%.
Outperform
Not only have these stocks outperformed primary cryptocurrency, but they’ve been among the biggest gainers across the whole U.S. stock market. In the universe of publicly traded U.S. businesses with a market value of at least $5 billion, the four Bitcoin-tied stocks were among the eight best performers, according to analysts.
Boom or bust?
The crypto boom represents a major recovery from 2022, when coin prices plummeted, taking related equities down with them. A year highlighted by hedge fund collapses, crypto lender failures and crippling losses at miners was punctuated in November 2022, when crypto exchange FTX spiralled into bankruptcy, leading to the arrest of founder Sam Bankman-Fried on fraud charges.
A jury in New York convicted Bankman-Fried on seven criminal counts
Bankman-Fried conviction
In 2023, a New York jury convicted Bankman-Fried on seven criminal counts, setting the 31-year-old former billionaire up for a possible long-stretch behind bars. Weeks later, Changpeng Zhao (CZ), founder of crypto exchange Binance, pleaded guilty and stepped down as the company’s CEO as part of a $4.3 billion settlement with the Department of Justice. He faces a possible prison sentence of 18 months or longer.
By the time of Bankman-Fried’s conviction and Zhao’s plea deal, the damage to the broader crypto market had mostly been realised, and investors were looking to the future. One of the biggest drivers for bitcoin this year was an easing of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes, which created a more attractive case for riskier assets, but only marginally.
Bitcoin halving due May 2024 & ETF’s
Prices were also bolstered by the upcoming Bitcoin halving, which takes place every four years and is scheduled for May 2024. In the halving process, the reward for mining is cut in half, capping the supply of bitcoin.
Additional buying was sparked by the potential for a flurry of bitcoin exchange-traded funds popping up in the new year.
Marathon
Among companies closely tied to Bitcoin, the best-performing stock this year was Marathon, a mining firm that just eclipsed that market cap level last week thanks to a 125% surge in December as of Tuesday’s close. On Wednesday, the shares surged another 15%.
Last year at this time, Marathon was hanging on by a thread. The company was in the midst of a quarter that ended with a loss of almost $400 million on sales of just $28.4 million because of tumbling bitcoin prices
Mining
Bitcoin mining is an expensive operation because of the high energy costs required to operate the supercomputers. A drop in bitcoin prices means a sharp reduction in the money producers make selling the coins they mine, even as their energy bills get little relief.
Outside of the mining universe, the best-performing crypto stock in the U.S. this year is Coinbase, which has soared some 386% into 2023 year end.
Coinbase
As the only major publicly traded crypto exchange in the U.S., Coinbase has long been a popular way to buy and trade cryptocurrencies in its home market. But with the struggles at Binance, the largest exchange in the world, Coinbase picked up useful market share during non-U.S. trading hours, according to a report from research firm Kaiko in late November 2023.
Binance is still open for business(Art illustration of a fictitious crypto trading room)
Shortly after Zhao’s plea deal, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong reportedly said that the news amounted to ‘a vindication of the long-term strategy that we’ve taken to focus on compliance, make sure we were building a trusted company.’
Coinbase’s revenue and stock price are still way below where they were during the heyday of crypto trading in 2021, when retail investors were jumping into the market to buy all sorts of digital currencies, including gimmicks like Dogecoin.
But the business has stabilized following drastic cost-cutting measures starting last year and extending into early 2023.
Bitcoin fell 7% Monday 11th December 2023 after touching $45,000 demonstrating its aptitude for volatility. A $5000 fall in 24 hours.
The move comes after a 12% tear for Bitcoin in December 2023 as expectations grew that the U.S. could soon approve its first spot bitcoin ETF.
Bitcoin has been on a steady climb in recent weeks, following a long period of market apathy that witnessed the price trade in a narrow range for months.
Bitcoin price as of Tuesday 12th December 2023
Bitcoin is a volatile investment – be VERY careful.
The sudden pullback triggered a spike in liquidations. Bitcoin: $146 million in long liquidations on Monday, and Ether: $100 million.
Other Altcoins such as: ADA, XRP fell in unison.
Bitcoin’s volatility will likely see it climb back to the $45,000 level quite quickly.
NOTE: Bitcoin can damage your wealth. Do your research!
Britcoin is a potential British digital currency that would be issued by the Bank of England and backed by the Government.
It would be tied to the pound and have a stable value, unlike cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. It would be accessible through digital wallets and interchangeable with cash and bank deposits. The Treasury and the Bank of England are consulting on its launch, which could take place by 2030.
Britcoin could be used for everyday transactions, both in-store and online, and could make payments more efficient and enable innovation. However, some MPs have warned that Britcoin could cause severe financial damage and undermine the role of banks.
Some MPs have warned that Britcoin could cause severe financial damage and undermine the role of banks for several reasons.
Concerns about introducing a digital pound
Britcoin could increase the chance of bank runs, if customers were able to quickly and easily switch their bank deposits into digital pounds, especially during times of financial stress or panic. This could reduce the liquidity and solvency of banks and make them more vulnerable to failure.
Britcoin could also raise the cost of borrowing for banks and consumers, as banks would need to replace the funding that they would lose from deposits with more expensive sources. The Bank of England estimated that if 20% of bank deposits turned digital, it could result in a rise in interest rates on commercial loans.
Britcoin could pose risks to data privacy and security, as the government or third parties could potentially access, track, or control how users spend their digital funds. This could raise ethical and legal issues and require robust regulation and protection.
Britcoin could also have unintended consequences on the wider economy and society, such as affecting monetary policy, financial inclusion, innovation, and competition. The MPs said that the benefits and costs of Britcoin should be clearly evidenced before any decision is taken to introduce it.
Art illustration: Digital £ pound proposal – Britcoin
The development of a state-backed ‘digital pound’ should proceed with caution, MPs have warned.
The benefits of the currency are still unclear and there must be systems in place to protect cash access and privacy, the Treasury Committee said in a report.
The Bank of England (BoE) and the Treasury have been consulting on the idea since February 2023. They are currently designing what such a system could look like. The CBDC would be directly issued by the Bank of England (BoE), just like banknotes.
This means people would have all the same safety and security that they have with their cash currently, which is different to cryptocurrencies that fluctuate in value and are generally run by private companies.
Bitcoin extended its rally overnight, climbing past the $41,000 level for the first time since May 2022.
The price of Bitcoin quickly soared above $41,000 easily taking out $40,000. The cryptocurrency is up around 13% over the past month and up more than 130% year to date. But the price of Bitcoin is down more than 40% from its all-time high in 2021.
In November 2023, analysts reportedly said Bitcoin could soar to as high as $150,000 in 2025, as it rides a new bull cycle. Other altcoins are available, as they too ride the coat tails of Bitcoin’s encouraging move. Be aware though, Bitcoin is a volatile asset and as such is subject to dramatic moves in either direction. BE CAREFUL!
Bitcoin price snapshot 09:35GMT 4th December 2023
Why is Bitcoin on a tear?
Cryptocurrency industry analysts have suggested this bull-run could lead to fresh all-time highs in 2024 above $100,000.
Excitement around a Bitcoin ETF being approved in the U.S. in 2024 as well as the process of Bitcoin halving due in April 2024 is fueling this rally in cryptocurrencies.
Many also say the crypto industry is enjoying a market climb due to the FTX case and the Binance settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice (DoJ) as the two outstanding issues that were holding up the crypto market were resloved.
Singapore is planning to introduce stricter regulations for cryptocurrency service providers in order to protect retail customers from the higher financial risks associated with digital assets.
Requiring crypto service providers to disclose the fees and charges for their services, as well as the risks and volatility of the crypto assets they offer.
Preventing crypto service providers from accepting payments through locally issued credit cards.
Enhancing the standards and governance of stablecoin-related activities, such as requiring stablecoin issuers to have a presence in Singapore and to comply with anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing rules.
Imposing a cap on the amount of crypto assets that retail customers can buy or sell in a single transaction, as well as a limit on the total value of crypto assets they can hold across all service providers.
MAS
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) stated that these measures are intended to reduce the potential for consumer harm and financial instability arising from crypto trading, while supporting the development of stablecoins as a credible medium of exchange in the digital asset ecosystem.
The MAS also noted that crypto assets are not legal tender and are not backed by any asset or issuer, and therefore carry significant risks of loss, fraud, hacking, and theft. The MAS urged consumers to exercise due diligence and understand the potential risks before engaging in crypto transactions.
Binance is still open for business and is now being run by, Richard Teng. But who is the new boss of Binance?
Mr Teng, from Singapore joined Binance just over two years ago as the chief executive of the Singapore business. That was the year when Binance came under a Justice Department investigation, and as regulatory scrutiny of the company and Zhao intensified. Richard Teng was rapidly climbing the ranks in the background.
He only stayed in his original position as the Singapore CEO for five months, according to his LinkedIn page, before he was promoted to regional head of Europe, Asia and the Middle East and North Africa in April 2023.
Mr Teng later moved to become head of regional markets in May 2023 before he was appointed to the top job on Tuesday 21st November 2023.
In announcing his successor, Mr Zhao called Mr Teng a ‘highly qualified leader‘, adding that ‘with over three decades of financial services and regulatory experience, he will navigate the company through its next period of growth’.
Traditional financial background
Prior to joining Binance, Mr Teng worked in the more traditional financial sectors as a director of corporate finance at the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and a chief regulatory officer of the Singapore Exchange (SGX). He then moved on to the become chief executive of the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM), an international financial centre in the United Arab Emirates, where he stayed for six years. The ADGM regulates the trading of digital assets.
In a statement on Wednesday 22nd November 2023, Mr Teng said he was honoured to take this position, adding that he would focus on reassuring Binance’s 150 million users about ‘the financial strength, security and safety of the company’.
Despite this, Mr Teng has reiterated that Binance is ‘here to stay‘, adding that company’s foundation stands ‘stronger than ever’.
Binance chief Changpeng Zhao pleaded guilty Tuesday to criminal charges and stepped down as the company’s CEO as part of a $4.3 billion settlement with the Department of Justice, according to court documents.
The plea arrangement with the U.S. government resolves an investigation into the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange.
Zhao said Tuesday in a post on X, that he had ‘made mistakes’ and ‘must take responsibility’. He said Richard Teng, the company’s former global head of regional markets, is the new CEO of Binance.
Action taken against Binance
The action against Binance and its founder was a joint effort by the Department of Justice, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Treasury Department. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) was absent.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reportedly said in a release Tuesday 21st November 2023 that the cryptocurrency exchange permitted ‘illicit actors’ to make transactions that supported activities such as terrorism and illegal narcotics and that it allowed more than 1.5 million virtual currency trades that violated U.S. sanctions.
Plea deal
Zhao personally pleaded guilty to violating and causing a financial institution to violate the Bank Secrecy Act, according to the plea agreement. The DOJ is also recommending that the court impose a $50 million fine on Zhao.
Zhao has been released on a $175 million bond secured by $15 million in cash and has a sentencing hearing scheduled for 23rd February 2024.
Continue to operate
Binance will continue to operate but with new strict rules. The company will be required to maintain and enhance its compliance program to ensure its business is in line with U.S. anti-money-laundering standards. The company is required to appoint an independent compliance monitor.
The case against Binance shows that three criminal charges were brought against the exchange, including conducting an unlicensed money-transmitting business, violating the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, and conspiracy. Binance has agreed to forfeit $2.5 billion to the U.S. government, as well as to pay a fine of $1.8 billion.
SEC takes aim too
The SEC targeted the company with a lawsuit in June 2023, alleging that Binance was running an illegal securities exchange and mishandling customer funds.
The SEC also challenged rival crypto exchange Coinbase with a similar lawsuit, alleging it is operating as an unauthorized securities exchange, broker and clearing agency.
And on Monday 20th November 2023 the SEC sued Kraken, alleging that the exchange commingled $33 billion in customer crypto assets with its own company assets, creating the potential for a significant risk of loss to its users.
Binance battered as CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) pleads guilty to federal charges, steps down.
In the charges brought against Binance by the SEC, the agency accused Binance of ‘commingling’ billions of dollars in customer money with Binance’s own funds, similar to allegations made against the now bankrupt and disgraced crypto exchange FTX. The founder of FTX, Sam Bankman-Fried was convicted of fraud and now awaits sentencing.
EC Chair, Gary Gensler reportedly said, ‘Zhao and Binance entities engaged in an extensive web of deception, conflicts of interest, lack of disclosure, and calculated evasion of the law’.
Binance origin
Started by the Chinese-born entrepreneur in 2017, Binance went from being a relatively obscure name to being a major force in crypto in a matter of weeks. Binance remains the world’s largest crypto exchange globally, processing billions of dollars in trades every year.
While its holding company is based in the Cayman Islands, Binance doesn’t have a global headquarters and Zhao frequently resisted calls to create one, saying he wanted the platform to run on a ‘decentralized’ operating model.
UK ban
In 2021, the U.K.’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) barred Binance’s U.K. unit from operating in the country, saying it wasn’t authorized to carry out regulated activities. More recently, Binance scrapped plans to pursue a full U.K. license after the regulator said its ‘know-your-customer and anti-money-laundering’ controls didn’t meet its requirements.
Binance and Zhao filed a motion in July 2023 to dismiss the CFTC’s suit. The U.S. arm of the exchange is also pushing back on the SEC’s lawsuit, filing a protective order against what they call the SEC’s ‘fishing expedition’.
Crypto industry concern
Of particular concern for the crypto industry are the implications of the crypto crackdown for a myriad of altcoins or tokens and blockchains, not just the exchanges.
The SEC maintains that several of the tokens Binance and Coinbase offer on their platforms such as: Solana’s SOL, Cardano’s ADA , and Polygon’s MATIC are all securities that should have been registered.
It was reported Friday 17th November 2023 by the city-state’s central bank that Singapore will be piloting the live issuance and use of wholesale central bank digital currencies in 2024.
During the pilot, the Monetary Authority of Singapore, (MAS) will partner with local banks to pilot the use of wholesale CBDCs to facilitate domestic payments.
What is a CBDC?
A CBDC is a digital form of a country’s fiat currency, issued and regulated by the central bank or monetary authority of that country. CBDCs are different from cryptocurrencies, which are decentralized and not backed by any government.
Singapore is one of the countries that has been actively exploring the potential of CBDCs, both for wholesale and retail purposes. Wholesale CBDCs are meant for interbank transactions and cross-border payments, while retail CBDCs are meant for general public use and everyday payments.
CBDC MAS timeline
In November 2021, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) launched Project Orchid, a retail CBDC project that aims to build the infrastructure and test the use cases for a digital Singapore dollar. The project will explore the concept of purpose-bound digital Singapore dollars, which allow senders to specify how and where the money will be used.
In August 2021, MAS announced Project Dunbar, a wholesale CBDC project that involves the collaboration of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank Negara Malaysia, and South African Reserve Bank. The project will develop prototypes of shared platforms for cross-border transactions using multiple CBDC’s.
In June 2021, MAS published a monograph on the economic considerations of a retail CBDC in the Singapore context. The monograph concluded that there is no urgent case for a retail CBDC in Singapore, but MAS wants to be prepared in case the situation changes in the future.
In April 2021, MAS extended the regulatory sandbox for Project Ubin, a wholesale CBDC project that started in 2016. Project Ubin has successfully demonstrated the feasibility of using blockchain technology for clearing and settlement of payments and securities.
Singapore to pilot use of wholesale central bank digital currencies in 2024
In March 2021, MAS joined the Multiple CBDC (m-CBDC) Bridge initiative, a wholesale CBDC project that involves the Bank of Thailand, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, and the Bank for International Settlements. The project will explore the use of distributed ledger technology to enable real-time cross-border transactions using multiple CBDC’s.
Process
Banks will issue tokenized bank liabilities in the form of claims in balance sheets. Retail customers can then use the tokenized bank liabilities in transactions with merchants, who will then credit these bank liabilities with their respective banks. Tokenization refers to the process of issuing a digital form of an asset on a blockchain.
The CBDC will then be automatically transferred to the merchant as a form of payment during the transaction.
Many central banks are testing and exploring their own digital currencies, includung the UK and U.S.
Sam Bankman-Fried, founder of the world’s biggest cryptocurrency exchange, has been found guilty of fraud and money laundering at the end of a month-long trial in New York.
He was accused of lying to investors and customers and stealing billions of dollars from FTX, which went bankrupt in November 2022. He now faces up to 115 years in prison. The jury delivered its verdict after less than five hours of deliberations. His sentencing has been set for 28th March 2024.
Month long trial
The verdict was delivered after a month-long trial that saw three of his former associates, including his ex-girlfriend, testify against him as part of a plea deal. They revealed that Bankman-Fried used customer deposits from FTX to fund his other company, Alameda Research, as well as to buy property and make political donations. He denied the charges and claimed that he acted in good faith and made mistakes due to being overwhelmed by the rapid growth of his businesses.
It concludes a dramatic fall from grace for the 31-year-old former billionaire and one of the most public faces of the crypto industry.
The case has been seen as a major blow to the crypto industry, which has been struggling to recover from the market crash and regulatory scrutiny that followed the FTX collapse. Bankman-Fried was once one of the most prominent and influential figures in the sector, known for his philanthropy and crypto industry innovation.
His downfall has been described as the industry’s greatest cautionary tale.
Verdict
‘Sam Bankman-Fried perpetrated one of the biggest financial frauds in American history – a multibillion-dollar scheme designed to make him the king of crypto’, U.S. attorney Damian Williams said in a statement after the verdict. ‘This case has always been about lying, cheating and stealing, and we have no patience for it’.
Sam Bankman-Fried, founder of the world’s biggest cryptocurrency exchange, has been found guilty of fraud and money laundering at the end of a month-long trial in New York.
Prosecutors had accused Bankman-Fried of lying to investors and lenders and stealing billions of dollars from cryptocurrency exchange FTX, helping to precipitate its collapse. They charged him with seven counts of fraud and money laundering.
He had pleaded not guilty to all the charges, maintaining that, while he had made mistakes, he had acted in good faith.
After the verdict Bankman-Fried’s lawyer Mark Cohen said: ‘We respect the jury’s decision. But we are very disappointed with the result’.
Mr Bankman-Fried reportedly maintains his innocence and will continue to vigorously fight the charges against him.
The UK government said it intends to bring a number of crypto asset activities under the same regulations that govern banks and other financial services firms.
Regulating a broad suite of crypto activities, such as trading, lending, and custody services.
Strengthening rules for crypto trading platforms and requiring them to have admission and disclosure documents.
Introducing a crypto market abuse regime to prevent manipulation and fraud.
Enhancing oversight of stablecoins, which are digital tokens pegged to fiat currencies or other assets.
The government’s consultation paper is open for feedback until January 31, 2024.
The government said it is committed to embracing technological change and innovation, while mitigating the most significant risks posed by crypto-assets.
The price of Bitcoin breached the $34,000 level to hit its highest value since May 2022, encouraged by optimism around the possibility of a Bitcoin ETF.
Bitcoin was trading at one point on Tuesday morning, 23rd October 2023 touched $34,940 before pulling back.
Bitcoin one month chart October 2023
Anticipation of a Bitcoin ETF grew after the court sided with Grayscale over the U.S. SEC in its bid to turn its huge GBTC Bitcoin fund into an ETF.
Warren Buffett is one of the most successful investors in the world, but he is also one of the most vocal critics of Bitcoin.
He believes Bitcoin is not a productive asset and does not produce anything tangible. He compares Bitcoin to farmland or apartment houses, which generate rent and food, while Bitcoin only relies on the demand and supply of the market.
He thinks Bitcoin is not a durable means of exchange and not a store of value. He argues that Bitcoin is too volatile, too unpredictable, and too susceptible to fraud and manipulation.
He says Bitcoin is bad for civilization and attracts charlatans. He believes that Bitcoin is used for illicit activities, such as money laundering and tax evasion, and that it lures people into scams and speculation.
Opinion not all agree
These are some of the opinions that Warren Buffett has expressed about Bitcoin over the years. However, not everyone agrees with him, and some people think that he is missing out on a revolutionary technology that could change the world.
What do you think? Is he right; or is it a revolutionary technology that is changing our world?
Watch out for the Bitcoin EV revolution that is about to take off!
The price of Bitcoin is influenced by many factors, such as supply and demand, market sentiment, news events, regulations, and technical analysis.
One of the recent news events that affected the price of Bitcoin was the speculation about the approval of a Bitcoin ETF by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). A spot Bitcoin ETF is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that directly holds Bitcoin and tracks its price movements.
This would allow investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without having to buy, store, or manage it themselves. A spot Bitcoin ETF would also increase the liquidity and legitimacy of the Bitcoin market, potentially attracting more institutional and retail investors.
Waiting approval
However, the SEC has not yet approved any Bitcoin ETF applications, despite receiving several from various financial firms, such as Blackrock and Fidelity. The SEC has expressed concerns about the risks of fraud, manipulation, and volatility in the Bitcoin market.
Bitcoin one year chart October 2022 – October 2023
The SEC has only approved one Bitcoin-related ETF so far, which is the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF that tracks the price of Bitcoin futures contracts, not the actual Bitcoin. Bitcoin futures contracts are agreements to buy or sell Bitcoin at a predetermined price and date in the future. They are traded on regulated exchanges.
Rumour
On 16th October, 2023, a false rumour circulated on social media that the SEC had approved a Bitcoin ETF from Blackrock, the world’s largest asset manager. This rumour caused a surge in the demand and price of Bitcoin, which briefly breached the $30,000 mark.
However, this ‘news’ was quickly corrected by both Blackrock and the SEC, and the price of Bitcoin fell back to its previous levels. The rumour may have been fueled by the anticipation and excitement in the crypto community for a spot Bitcoin ETF approval, which many analysts believe would boost the price of Bitcoin significantly.
Crypto volatility
The false rumour about the Bitcoin ETF approval was one of the major factors that contributed to the 10% climb and subsequent drop of bitcoin on the 16th October, 2023.
Be careful
The price of Bitcoin is determined by the interaction of buyers and sellers in a global and decentralized market that operates 24/7. As such, it is subject to high volatility and unpredictability.
The price of Bitcoin is determined by the interaction of buyers and sellers in a global and decentralized market that operates 24/7. As such, it is subject to high volatility and unpredictability.
Investors should always do their own research and due diligence before investing in any cryptocurrency or any financial product.
Remember to always do your ownRESEARCH!RESEARCH!RESEARCH!
Definitions
ETF – Exchange Traded Fund is a type of investment fund that can be bought or sold on a stock exchange like a regular stock. An ETF usually holds a selection of securities, such as stocks, bonds, commodities, or currencies, that track a specific index, sector, or asset class.
Bitcoin is a type of digital currency that can be used for online transactions without the need for a central authority or intermediary. Bitcoin is based on a technology called blockchain, which is a distributed ledger that records and verifies all transactions in a network of computers. Bitcoin is created and rewarded to the participants who contribute their computing power to maintain and secure the network, a process known as mining. Bitcoin has a limited supply of 21 million units, which are divided into smaller units called satoshis.
Bitcoin is based on a technology called blockchain, which is a distributed ledger that records and verifies all transactions in a network of computers.
Bitcoin was invented in 2008 by an anonymous person or group using the name Satoshi Nakamoto, who published a white paper describing the concept and design of Bitcoin.
The first Bitcoin transaction was made in 2009, when Nakamoto sent 10 bitcoins to a computer programmer named Hal Finney. Since then, Bitcoin has grown in popularity and value, attracting millions of users and investors around the world.
Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is a U.S. government agency that regulates the securities markets and protects investors. The SEC was established by the passage of the U.S. Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934, largely in response to the stock market crash of 1929 that led to the Great Depression.
The SEC has three main objectives: to ensure full public disclosure of information, to prevent fraud and manipulation in the market, and to facilitate capital formation for economic growth.
The SEC oversees various entities and activities in the securities markets, such as securities exchanges, brokers, dealers, investment advisers, mutual funds, corporate issuers, and securities transactions. The SEC enforces the federal securities laws by requiring companies to register their securities and disclose relevant information to the public through its electronic database called EDGAR.
The SEC also investigates and prosecutes violations of the securities laws, such as insider trading, market manipulation, accounting fraud, and disclosure fraud.
Bitstamp has reportedly disclosed its ongoing discussions with a number of European banks about assisting them in launching cryptocurrency services. These discussions are expected to come to fruition in early 2024.
Bitstamp’s Negotiations with Top European Banks
Bitstamp’s negotiations underscore the growing acceptance of digital assets within the European financial sector.
This news comes at a time when the European Union is actively advancing its regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies, known as Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA).
It aims at facilitating the entry of traditional financial institutions into the digital asset space.
Cryptocurrency company Ripple said on Wednesday 4th October 2023 that it has obtained a full licence to operate in Singapore, its Asia-Pacific headquarters since 2017.
‘We have hired exceptional talent and local leadership, doubling headcount over the past year and plan to continue growing our presence in a progressive jurisdiction like Singapore,‘ CEO Brad Garlinghouse said in a statement.
The new development comes less than four months after the Monetary Authority of Singapore granted an ‘initial in-principle’ approval in June 2023. With the full licence, Ripple will continue to provide regulated crypto payment services in Singapore.
Over 90% of Ripple’s business is outside of the U.S., and Singapore – and to a larger degree Asia Pacific – is one of its fastest growing region.
XRP Ripple Crypto digital coin and cross border payment system
The XRP ripple crypto coin is a digital currency that is used to facilitate fast and low-cost cross-border payments on the Ripple network.
The Ripple network is a decentralized system of servers that connects banks, payment providers, digital asset exchanges, and corporates. The XRP coin acts as a bridge currency between different fiat currencies and other digital assets.
The XRP coin has a fixed supply of 100 billion units and is distributed by Ripple Labs, the company behind the Ripple network.
The possibilities of how high the XRP price can go has triggered heated debate among crypto community members over the past week. One particular forecast put the price of the cryptocurrency as high as $10,000 as Ripple advances in the payments sector. However, the validity of this prediction is still heavily debated, leading crypto analysts to weigh in on whether this price point is even possible.
Why The Sudden Bullishness On XRP Price?
Indicators and investors alike turned bullish for the XRP price following Ripple’s partial victory over the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in July 2023. The price of the coin had risen over 60% in the days following the ruling as interest soared.
The token’s rally has since slowed down since then, wiping the majority of its gains from the ruling. However, crypto analysts remain bullish. One analyst put the XRP price at $130, while another analyst sees it going as high as $500.
Investors like the coin
XRP’s trading volumes, which have been nearly consistent above $1 billion, also show that investors are heavily attached to the coin. This sustained bullishness is further fueled by Ripple’s exploits in the payments sector, as well as working with various countries on their Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs).
Other sources are more conservative and estimate that XRP price could range from $0.50 to $2.18 by the end of 2023, depending on the outcome of the SEC lawsuit, the development of the Ripple protocol, and the market conditions. Some sources also provide long-term predictions for XRP price based on historical trends.
For example, one source suggests that XRP could reach $14.21 by 2040 and $106.14 by 2050 if it follows Bitcoin’s growth trajectory over the past five years.
What is XRP?
XRP is a cryptocurrency that powers the Ripple network, which is a decentralized platform for cross-border payments. XRP aims to provide fast, cheap, and secure transactions for individuals and institutions around the world.
XRP price predictions are based on various factors, such as the demand and supply of XRP, the adoption and innovation of the Ripple protocol, the regulatory environment, the competition from other cryptocurrencies, and the overall market sentiment.
$10 – $100 range?
Is $10000 possible for XRP price?
According to some sources, XRP price could reach as high as $100-$500 in the next four to seven months, based on the recent ruling that XRP is not a security and the potential growth of Ripple’s partnerships in the payments space. However, this is a very optimistic scenario that assumes a high level of adoption and innovation of the Ripple network.
This is NOT investment advice
However, these predictions are not investment advice and should be taken with a ‘pinch of salt’. The cryptocurrency market is very volatile and unpredictable, and XRP price could be influenced by many factors that are beyond anyone’s control. Therefore, it is advisable to do your own research and analysis before making any financial decisions involving XRP or any other cryptocurrency or any investment.
NOTE: These are not recommendations. Investments may go up or down. Your money is at risk!
According to a report by Henley & Partners, a professional consultancy firm, there are 22 people who have crypto holdings worth at least $1 billion as of September 2023. Six of them hold their investments in Bitcoin, the first and largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.
Six Bitcoin billionaires reported net worth
Micree Zhan, the co-founder of Bitmain, a leading manufacturer of Bitcoin mining hardware. He has a reported net worth of $3.2 billion as of January 2021.
Chris Larsen, the co-founder and executive chairman of Ripple, a blockchain platform that facilitates cross-border payments. He has a reported net worth of $2.9 billion as of January 2021.
Michael Saylor, the founder and CEO of MicroStrategy, a business intelligence company that has invested over $1 billion in Bitcoin since 2020. He has a reported net worth of $2.3 billion as of January 2021.
Bitcoin billionaire pile
Changpeng Zhao, the founder and CEO of Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume. He has a reported net worth of $1.9 billion as of January 2021.
Tim Draper, a venture capitalist and early investor in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. He has a reported net worth of $1.5 billion as of January 2021.
Brian Armstrong, the co-founder and CEO of Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the U.S. He has a reported net worth of $1.3 billion as of January 2021.
Satoshi Nakamoto
There are also likely to be some anonymous Bitcoin billionaires who have not disclosed their identities or holdings to the public.
One of them could be Satoshi Nakamoto, the mysterious ‘likely’ creator of Bitcoin, who is estimated to have mined over one million Bitcoins in the early days of the network.
If he still owns them, his fortune would be worth over $40 billion at current prices. However, there is no conclusive evidence that he is still alive or in control of his bitcoins, or even that he was the originator of Bitcoin.
The price of bitcoin surged Tuesday 29th August 2023 after the U.S. Court of Appeals ruled that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) was wrong to deny crypto investment giant Grayscale permission to convert its popular bitcoin trust into an ETF.
Bitcoin jumped around 7% following the ruling to $27,852. The move lifted other cryptocurrencies as well as crypto equities higher.
Grayscale
Grayscale’s lawsuit against the SEC has been closely watched by investors and other industry participants as a key catalyst that would shake up a market governed by low volatility and liquidity.
Earlier this month, bitcoin trading volatility fell to its lowest level in more than four years as investors had been waiting on the sidelines for more regulatory clarity on crypto activity .
Several bitcoin futures ETFs have already been approved in the U.S.
‘Shackles being removed from crypto regulation paving way for easier crypto trading’
Court ruling
‘The denial of Grayscale’s proposal was arbitrary and capricious … The Commission failed to adequately explain why it approved the listing of two bitcoin futures ETPs but not Grayscale’s proposed bitcoin Exchange Trade Product (ETP),‘the court said in the ruling. ‘In the absence of a coherent explanation, this unlike regulatory treatment of like products is unlawful. We therefore grant Grayscale’s petition for review and vacate the Commission’s order‘.
Tuesday’s ruling may increase the chances that the SEC will approve other bitcoin ETF applications, including that of BlackRock, whose filing in late June 2023 drove one of bitcoin’s big rallies this year, as well as Fidelity, Invesco and many others.
A U.S. bitcoin ETF would provide a way to get exposure to bitcoin without having to hold it, which would invite retail and institutional investors as well as wealth managers into the market.
A spokesperson for the SEC said it’s ‘reviewing the court’s decision to determine next steps‘.
‘Today’s decision reaffirms that a bitcoin ETF in the U.S. is a matter of when, not if’, said the global head of asset management at Galaxy, which filed with Invesco for its bitcoin ETF. ‘In order for digital assets to continue to flourish, they must be accessible to all investors. We believe that the ETF structure can enable greater access to and transparency across cryptocurrency investing, and truly help further democratize the asset class‘.
Dark cloud for crypto finally lifting?
The ruling also comes as a relief to many crypto market traders who have been frustrated by the SEC, particularly under Chair Gary Gensler, and its insistence on regulating by enforcement.
The crypto industry has long sought out clarity in rules businesses can apply to establish and build long-lasting, compliant companies. The U.S. regulatory crackdown on crypto in 2023 – which includes SEC enforcements and a lawsuit against the biggest U.S. crypto exchange Coinbase and also its case against XRP Ripple has been a dark cloud over the market.
Lawsuit filed June 2022
Grayscale initiated its lawsuit against the SEC in June 2022 after the agency rejected its application to turn its bitcoin trust, better known by its ticker GBTC, into an ETF. The company decided to pursue the ETF, which would be backed by bitcoin rather than bitcoin derivatives, after the SEC approved ProShares’ futures-based bitcoin ETF in October 2021.
The ruling faced multiple delays but the SEC ultimately rejected the application last summer, citing failure by Grayscale to answer questions related to concerns about market manipulation and investor protections.
Bitcoin fell sharply on Thursday 17th August by 9% to just over $26,000
The fall in Bitcoin followed several hours after reports emerged that SpaceX, one of Elon Musk’s enterprises, wrote down the value of its Bitcoin holdings by a total of $373 million in 2022 and 2021, and that the space travel company had sold the virtual currency.
This is likely one of the fastest minute-by-minute selloffs in the history of Bitcoin but this is largely an Elon Musk/SpaceX-driven selloff and probably short-sighted and largely retail-driven. But still, 9% is a big drop for any asset!
In 2022, Tesla, which Musk also owns, announced that it sold about 75% of its Bitcoin holdings after investing $1.5 billion in the flagship cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin had been under pressure earlier, starting after the Federal Reserve issued the minutes from its July policy meeting. In Thursday’s session, the cryptocurrency slumped to its lowest level in almost two months.
Singapore’s financial regulator has reportedly said it had finalised rules for a type of digital currency called ‘stablecoin’, placing it among some of first the regulators worldwide to do so.
Stablecoins are a type of digital currency designed to hold a constant value against a fiat currency. Many claim to be backed by a reserve of real-world assets, such as cash or government bonds.
Reserves that back stabelcoins must be held in low-risk and highly-liquid assets. They must equal or exceed the value of the stablecoin in circulation at all times, the rules say. The stablecoin market is valued at around $125 billion, with two tokens – Tether’s USDT and Circle’s USDC – dominating roughly 90% of the market cap value. Stablecoins are broadly unregulated around the world.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore’s (MAS) framework requirement
Reserves that back stabelcoins must be held in low-risk and highly-liquid assets. They must equal or exceed the value of the stablecoin in circulation at all times
Stablecoin issuers must return the par value of the digital currency to holders within five business days of a redemption request.
Issuers must also provide ‘appropriate disclosures‘ to users, including the audit results of reserves.
These rules will apply to stablecoins that are issued in Singapore and mimic the value of the Singapore dollar, or of any G10 currencies, such as the U.S. dollar.
‘Shackles being removed from crypto regulation paving way for stablecoin adoption’
Last year, the collapse of a so-called algorithmic stablecoin named UST put this type of stablecoin in the crosshairs of regulators. Unlike USDT and USDC, UST was governed by an algorithm and did not have real-world assets like bonds in its reserves.
Singapore’s stablecoin framework puts it among one of the first jurisdictions to have such rules. In June, the U.K. passed a law that gives regulators the ability to oversee stablecoins, though there are no concrete rules yet. Hong Kong is meanwhile undergoing a public consultation on stablecoins and seeks to introduce regulation next year.
What is a stablecoin
A stablecoin is a type of cryptocurrency that tries to maintain a stable value by being pegged to another asset, such as a fiat currency, a commodity, or another cryptocurrency. Stablecoins aim to offer the benefits of cryptocurrencies, such as decentralisation, security, and transparency, without the drawbacks of high volatility and price fluctuations.
Stablecoins can be used for payments, remittances, trading, and storing value. However, stablecoins also face some challenges and risks, such as regulatory uncertainty, technical issues, and trust issues.
There are different ways to create and manage stablecoins, depending on the mechanism used to stabilize their value.
Main types of stablecoins
Fiat-backed: These stablecoins are backed by a reserve of fiat currency, such as the US dollar or the euro, held by a third-party entity. The stablecoin issuer promises to redeem the stablecoin for the fiat currency at a fixed ratio. Examples of fiat-backed stablecoins are Tether (USDT), USD Coin (USDC), and TrueUSD (TUSD).
Commodity-backed: These stablecoins are backed by a reserve of physical commodities, such as gold, silver, or oil, held by a third-party entity. The stablecoin issuer promises to redeem the stablecoin for the commodity at a fixed ratio. Examples of commodity-backed stablecoins are Paxos Gold (PAXG), Tether Gold (XAUT), and Digix Gold (DGX).
Crypto-backed: These stablecoins are backed by a reserve of other cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin or Ethereum, held in a smart contract. The stablecoin issuer uses over-collateralization or algorithmic adjustments to maintain the stability of the stablecoin. Examples of crypto-backed stablecoins are Dai (DAI), sUSD (SUSD), and BitUSD (BITUSD).
Algorithmic: These stablecoins are not backed by any reserve, but instead use an algorithm to control the supply and demand of the stablecoin. The algorithm adjusts the supply of the stablecoin according to the market conditions and the target price. Examples of algorithmic stablecoins are Basis Cash (BAC), Empty Set Dollar (ESD), and TerraUSD (UST).
What is ‘crypto’
Crypto has attracted a lot of attention in recent years. Crypto is short for cryptocurrency, which is a digital or virtual currency that uses cryptography to secure and verify transactions. Crypto can also refer to the underlying technology that powers cryptocurrencies, such as blockchain.
Some examples of popular cryptocurrencies are Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple ( XRP)and Cardano (ADA).
Cryptoman superhero
Cryptocurrencies have many advantages over traditional currencies, such as decentralisation, transparency, anonymity, and lower fees. However, they also face some challenges, such as volatility, regulation, security, and scalability. Crypto enthusiasts believe that cryptocurrencies have the potential to revolutionise the world of finance and beyond.
Some examples of popular stablecoins are Tether, USD Coin and Binance USD.
Asia is promoting clear crypto rules at a time when large businesses are facing regulatory uncertainty in the U.S.
Some Asian countries that have taken the lead in crypto regulation include Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, and South Korea. They have proposed or implemented frameworks that protect investors, prevent money laundering, and encourage innovation in the crypto industry.
Lack of clarity in U.S.
In contrast, the U.S. has been singled out for its lack of clarity and consistency in crypto regulation. The SEC for instance and other agencies have different views on how to classify and regulate crypto assets – take alook at the case with XRP and ripple of recent years.
Some industry leaders have threatened to leave the U.S. or sued the regulators over their actions. There is also a debate in Congress that could level crypto transactions with a tax.
Attractive
As a result, some analysts have suggested that Asia could become more attractive to investors and innovators in the crypto industry, as it offers more certainty and stability in the regulatory environment.
However, there are also challenges and risks involved in crypto regulation, such as balancing security and innovation, ensuring compliance and enforcement, and dealing with cross-border issue.
Banks may use XRP Ripple as a payment system to replace SWIFT
XRP Ripple is a payment settlement system and currency exchange network that can process transactions globally. It is designed to facilitate cross-border payments by using XRP, a cryptocurrency, as a bridge currency between different fiat currencies.
XRP advantage is cost and speed
XRP Ripple claims to offer several advantages over SWIFT, the system most financial institutions use for international money transfers. XRP transactions can be completed in as little as 3 to 5 seconds and transaction fees are just 0.0001 XRP. SWIFT, on the other hand, can take up to 5 business days and charge higher fees.
Not so Swift
However, despite XRP Ripple’s efforts to disrupt the industry, SWIFT has not been idle. The interbank payments network has recently launched SWIFT Go, a new service that enables businesses and consumers to send low-value cross-border payments anywhere in the world in seconds with full transparency and security.
SWIFT has also reportedly completed a successful cross-border payment from Australia to Singapore in only 13 seconds in a trial.
Adoption?
Therefore, it is not clear whether banks will adopt XRP Ripple as a payment system to replace SWIFT, or whether they will stick with the incumbent network that has been improving its speed and efficiency. The outcome may depend on factors such as regulation, customer demand, and market competition.
Fast International money transfers via the XRP Ripple system could be adopted by banks
It may also depend on costs and speed guarantees – banks will love to save money on money transfers.
Now that an international money transfer can be completed in seconds and not days – what will the client be charged?
Summary
Ripple is confident U.S. banks will start wanting to use XRP for cross-border transactions after a judge gave the firm a partial victory in its fight against the SEC.
A judge ruled that XRP cryptocurrency Ripple is closely associated with, but was not in itself necessarily a security, in a development with major implications for the digital asset industry.
Fast International money transfers via XRP Ripple
It wasn’t a total victory for Ripple, however – the judge also ruled that sales of XRP by Ripple to institutional buyers do count as unregistered sales of securities.
The FEDNOW payment system is a new instant payment infrastructure developed by the Federal Reserve that allows financial institutions of every size across the U.S. to provide safe and efficient instant payment services.
Live system
It went live on July 20, 2023 and enables individuals and businesses to send and receive money in near real-time, 24/7/365, through their depository institution accounts.
The service is a flexible, neutral platform that supports a broad variety of instant payments and offers optional features such as fraud prevention tools, request for payment capability, and tools to support payment inquiries.
FedNow is the first new payment rail in the United States since the introduction of the Automated Clearing House (ACH) in the early 1970s.
Digital Dollar?
Is this a possibly a pre-emptive strike to get ahead of international digital currency deployment and set the scene to adopt a digital payment structure of a new ‘crypto coin system’ for the future – the digital dollar?
