China’s restriction of rare earth materials hurts

Chinas rare earth material dominance

China’s recent export restrictions on rare earth elements are sending shockwaves through multiple industries worldwide.

As the curbs continue to take effect, sectors reliant on these critical minerals—including automotive, defence, and clean energy—are beginning to feel the strain.

China controls about 60–70% of global rare earth production and nearly 90% of the refining capacity.

Even when rare earths are mined elsewhere, they’re often sent to China for processing, since few countries have the infrastructure or environmental tolerance to handle the complex and polluting refining process.

In April 2025, China introduced export controls on seven key rare earth elements and permanent magnets, citing national interests and responding to rising trade tensions—particularly with the U.S.

Automotive industry in crisis

The auto sector is among the hardest hit. Rare earth elements are essential for both combustion engines and electric vehicles, particularly in the production of magnets used in motors and batteries.

European auto suppliers have already reported production shutdowns due to dwindling inventories.

Germany’s car industry, a global powerhouse, has reportedly warned that further disruptions could bring manufacturing to a standstill.

Japan’s Nissan and Suzuki have also expressed concerns, with Suzuki reportedly halting production of its Swift model due to shortages.

Defence and technology sectors at risk

China’s dominance in rare earth refining, controlling nearly 90% of global capacity, poses a strategic challenge for defense industries.

The U.S. military relies heavily on these materials for missile guidance systems, radar technology, and advanced electronics.

With nearly 78% of defence platforms dependent on Chinese-processed rare earths, the restrictions expose vulnerabilities in national security.

Clean energy ambitions under threat

The clean energy transition depends on rare earths for wind turbines, solar panels, and electric vehicle batteries.

China’s curbs threaten global efforts to reduce carbon emissions, forcing countries to scramble for alternative sources. India’s electric vehicle sector, for instance, faces potential setbacks as manufacturers struggle to secure supplies.

As industries grapple with these disruptions, governments and corporations are urgently seeking solutions. Whether through diplomatic negotiations or investment in domestic rare earth production, the race is on to mitigate the fallout from China’s tightening grip on these critical resources.

Several countries have significant rare earth reserves and can supply these materials in high quantities.

Top rare earth materials suppliers

China – The dominant player, with 44 million metric tons of reserves.

Brazil – Holds 21 million metric tons of rare earth reserves.

Vietnam – Has 22 million metric tons, making it a rising supplier.

India – Contains 6.9 million metric tons.

Australia – A key producer with 5.7 million metric tons.

Russia – Holds 10 million metric tons.

United States – While not a leading producer, it has 1.8 million metric tons.

Greenland – An emerging supplier with 1.5 million metric tons.

China remains the largest supplier, but countries like Brazil, Vietnam, and Australia are working to expand their production to reduce reliance on Chinese exports.

Ukraine?

Ukraine reportedly has significant reserves of rare earth elements, including titanium, lithium, graphite, and uranium. These minerals are crucial for industries such as defence, aerospace, and green energy.

However, the ongoing conflict with Russia has disrupted access to many of these deposits, with some now under Russian control.

Despite these challenges, Ukraine is being considered for strategic raw material projects by the European Union, aiming to strengthen supply chains and reduce reliance on China. The country’s mineral wealth could play a key role in post-war recovery and global supply diversification

Greenland?

Greenland is emerging as a key player in the global rare earth supply chain. The European Union has recently selected Greenland for new raw material projects aimed at securing critical minerals.

The island holds significant deposits of rare earth elements, including graphite, which is essential for battery production.

However, Greenland faces challenges in developing its rare earth industry, including harsh terrain, environmental concerns, and geopolitical tensions.

The U.S. and EU are keen to reduce reliance on China, which dominates rare earth processing, and Greenland’s resources could play a crucial role in this effort.

Greenland has indicated it has little desire to be transformed into a mining territory. It could have little choice.

Canada?

Canada is emerging as a significant player in the rare earth supply chain. The country has over 15.2 million tonnes of rare earth oxide reserves, making it one of the largest known sources globally.

Recently, Canada opened its first commercial rare earth elements refinery, marking a major step toward reducing reliance on Chinese processing.

The facility, located in Saskatchewan, aims to produce 400 tonnes of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) metals per year, enough for 500,000 electric vehicles annually.

Additionally, Canada is investing in critical minerals infrastructure to unlock rare earth development in Northern Quebec and Labrador.

The government has allocated $10 million to support mining projects, including the Strange Lake Rare Earth Project, which contains globally significant quantities of dysprosium, neodymium, praseodymium, and terbium.

Rare earth materials are a necessity for our modern technological lives – big tech tells us this. The hunger for these products needs to be fed, and China, right now, does the feeding.

And the beast needs to be fed.

From Missiles to Tariffs: A desensitised stock market faces Trump’s new world

Markets desensitised to U.S. policy making

In years past, the mere hint of U.S. airstrikes or heightened geopolitical tension would send global stock markets into panic mode.

Yet, following President Trump’s re-election and his increasingly aggressive foreign policy stance, investor reactions have become notably muted.

From missile strikes on Iranian nuclear sites to an orchestrated ceasefire between Iran and Israel, markets have barely flinched. The question arises: are investors becoming desensitised to Trump’s geopolitical theatre?

Take the latest skirmish between Iran and Israel. After nearly two weeks of missile exchanges, Trump’s announcement of a ‘complete and total ceasefire’ barely nudged the S&P 500.

That calm came despite the U.S. launching pre-emptive strikes on Iranian facilities and absorbing retaliatory attacks on its military base in Qatar.

In another era, or under a different administration even, such developments might have triggered a broad risk-off sentiment. Instead, Wall Street just shrugged.

One reason may be fatigue. Trump’s approach – rife with tariffs, sanctions, and sudden reversals – has bred a kind of market immunity.

Investors, well-versed in the rhythm of Trump’s provocations, have begun treating them as background noise. His revived tariff agenda, particularly the threats aimed once again at China and EU auto imports, has likewise failed to prompt major selloffs.

Similarly, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, once a source of intense volatility, now registers as a strategic stalemate in the market’s eyes.

While Trump’s rhetoric surrounding Ukraine has shifted unpredictably, investors appear more focused on earnings, inflation data, and central bank signals than on diplomatic fallout and war!

This is not to suggest markets are indifferent to geopolitical risk, but rather that they’ve adapted. Algorithmic trading models may be increasingly geared to discount Trump’s headline-grabbing tactics, while institutional investors hedge through gold, volatility indices, or energy plays without dumping equities outright.

Critics argue this detachment is dangerous. Should a flashpoint spiral out of control, be it over Hormuz, Ukraine, or Taiwan, the slow-boiling complacency could leave portfolios badly exposed.

Still, for now, Trump’s policies are being priced in not with panic, but with complacency maybe.

The real story may not be what Trump does next, but how long the markets can continue to look away.

Trump announces he had brokered ceasefire between Israel and Iran?

Tensions between Israel and Iran reached a boiling point after 12 days of cross-border missile and drone strikes.

The situation escalated further when U.S. forces under President Trump launched targeted airstrikes on key Iranian nuclear sites, Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, prompting a direct Iranian missile response on a U.S. base in Qatar.

In a dramatic turn, President Trump announced what he called a ‘Complete and Total CEASEFIRE‘ – announced on Truth Social. According to Trump’s plan, Iran would begin the ceasefire immediately, with Israel to follow 12 hours later.

The truce would reportedly be considered complete after 24 hours if all attacks stopped.

While Trump touted the ceasefire as a triumph of ‘peace through strength’, analysts questioned the ceasefire’s enforceability – especially since missile exchanges reportedly continued despite the announcement.

Nonetheless, Trump claimed credit for halting the region’s slide into all-out war without committing to prolonged U.S. military involvement.

Critics argue Trump’s strategy relies more on military pressure and media theatrics than diplomatic engagement.

Supporters counter that his boldness forced both sides to the table. Either way, the world is watching to see whether this fragile peace endures – or erupts again in fire.

If this turns out to be a masterstroke in political brinkmanship – hats off to Trump, I guess. Whichever way you look at it, the precision U.S. strike on Iran was exactly that – precision. And, you have to take note.

Iran has been weakened, and this may even influence Russia’s war on Ukraine. Hopefully Israel with Palestine too – regardless of stock market reaction.

And that has to be a good thing!

But has Israel finished their war?

Despite all the noise regarding stock market reaction, one thing is for certain – the anxiety and worry for the people of the Middle East is unquestionable.

It’s not a happy time.

AMD Unveils Instinct MI400: is it time for AMD to challenge NVIDIA dominance?

AMD & NVIDIA chip go head-to-head

AMD has officially lifted the curtain on its next-generation AI chip, the Instinct MI400, marking a significant escalation in the battle for data centre dominance.

Set to launch in 2026, the MI400 is designed to power hyperscale AI workloads with unprecedented efficiency and performance.

Sam Altman and OpenAI have played a surprisingly hands-on role in AMD’s development of the Instinct MI400 series.

Altman appeared on stage with AMD CEO Lisa Su at the company’s ‘Advancing AI’ event, where he revealed that OpenAI had provided direct feedback during the chip’s design process.

Altman described his initial reaction to the MI400 specs as ‘totally crazy’ but expressed excitement at how close AMD has come to delivering on its ambitious goals.

He praised the MI400’s architecture – particularly its memory design – as being well-suited for both inference and training tasks.

OpenAI has already been using AMD’s MI300X chips for some workloads and is expected to adopt the MI400 series when it launches in 2026.

This collaboration is part of a broader trend: OpenAI, traditionally reliant on Nvidia GPUs via Microsoft Azure, is now diversifying its compute stack.

AMD’s open standards and cost-effective performance are clearly appealing, especially as OpenAI also explores its own chip development efforts with Broadcom.

AMD’s one-year chart snap-shot

One-year AMD chart snap-shot

So, while OpenAI isn’t ditching Nvidia entirely, its involvement with AMD signals a strategic shift—and a vote of confidence in AMD’s growing role in the AI hardware ecosystem.

At the heart of AMD’s strategy is the Helios rack-scale system, a unified architecture that allows thousands of MI400 chips to function as a single, massive compute engine.

This approach is tailored for the growing demands of large language models and generative AI, where inference speed and energy efficiency are paramount.

AMD technical power

The MI400 boasts a staggering 432GB of next-generation HBM4 memory and a bandwidth of 19.6TB/sec—more than double that of its predecessor.

With up to four Accelerated Compute Dies (XCDs) and enhanced interconnects, the chip delivers 40 PFLOPs of FP4 performance, positioning it as a formidable rival to Nvidia’s Rubin R100 GPU.

AMD’s open-source networking technology, UALink, replaces Nvidia’s proprietary NVLink, reinforcing the company’s commitment to open standards. This, combined with aggressive pricing and lower power consumption, gives AMD a compelling value proposition.

The company claims its chips can deliver 40% more AI tokens per dollar than Nvidia’s offerings.

Big tech follows AMD

OpenAI, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle are among the major players already integrating AMD’s Instinct chips into their infrastructure. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, speaking at the launch event reportedly praised the MI400’s capabilities, calling it ‘an amazing thing‘.

With the AI chip market projected to exceed $500 billion by 2028, AMD’s MI400 is more than just a product—it’s a statement of intent. As the race for AI supremacy intensifies, AMD is betting big on performance, openness, and affordability to carve out a larger share of the future.

It certainly looks like AMD is positioning the Instinct MI400 as a serious contender in the AI accelerator space – and Nvidia will be watching closely.

The MI400 doesn’t just aim to catch up; it’s designed to challenge Nvidia head-on with bold architectural shifts and aggressive performance-per-dollar metrics.

Nvidia has long held the upper hand with its CUDA software ecosystem and dominant market share, especially with the popularity of its H100 and the upcoming Rubin GPU. But AMD is playing the long game.

Nvidia 0ne-year chart snapshot

Nvidia 0ne-year chart snapshot

By offering open standards like UALink and boasting impressive specs like 432GB of HBM4 memory and 40 PFLOPs of FP4 performance, the MI400 is pushing into territory that was once Nvidia’s alone.

Whether it truly rivals Nvidia will depend on a few key factors: industry adoption, software compatibility, real-world performance under AI workloads, and AMD’s ability to scale production and support.

But with major players like OpenAI, Microsoft, and Meta already lining up to adopt the MI400.

Is now a good time to invest in AMD?

Asia’s shift away from the U.S. Dollar gains momentum

De-dollar

The global financial landscape is undergoing a significant transformation as Asian economies accelerate their move away from the U.S. dollar.

This trend, known as de-dollarisation, is driven by a combination of geopolitical uncertainties, monetary policy shifts, and efforts to reduce reliance on the greenback in trade and investment.

The forces behind de-dollarisation

For decades, the U.S. dollar has dominated global trade and foreign exchange reserves. However, its share in global reserves has steadily declined from over 70% in 2000 to 57.8% in 2024.

This shift is particularly pronounced in Asia, where nations are actively promoting the use of local currencies to mitigate exchange rate risks and strengthen regional financial stability.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has committed to increasing local currency settlements in trade and investment as part of its Economic Community Strategic Plan for 2026-2030.

Additionally, major economies like China and India are developing alternative payment systems to bypass traditional dollar-based transactions, further reducing dependency on the greenback.

Implications for the U.S. Dollar

The dollar has faced increased volatility, with a sharp 8% decline in the dollar index since the start of 2025. Investors and policymakers are recognising that the dollar can be leveraged in trade negotiations, prompting a reassessment of portfolios overweight in U.S. assets.

While the dollar remains the world’s primary reserve currency, its dominance is being challenged. Asian economies, particularly Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, and China, hold substantial foreign assets, giving them the ability to repatriate earnings into local currencies.

The shift away from the dollar is a slow but steady process, signalling a broader transition towards a multipolar financial system.

Crypto and DeFi are playing a growing role in de-dollarisation.

Many nations, particularly within BRICS, are turning to digital assets to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar in global trade.

How crypto supports de-dollarisation

Alternative Payment Systems – Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum allow countries under U.S. sanctions to bypass traditional dollar-based financial systems.

Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) – Over 130 countries are exploring CBDCs to strengthen local currency transactions and reduce dependence on the dollar.

Stablecoins & Cross-Border Trade – Stablecoins such as USDT and USDC facilitate international payments, with daily transaction volumes exceeding $150 billion.

The bigger picture

The shift away from the dollar is not just about crypto – it’s part of a broader movement toward a multipolar financial system.

While digital assets provide alternatives, traditional financial institutions are also adapting by promoting local currency settlements

AI creates paradigm shift in computing – programming AI is like training a person

Teaching or programing?

At London Tech Week, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang made a striking statement: “The way you program an AI is like the way you program a person.” (Do we really program people or do we teach)?

This marks a fundamental shift in how we interact with artificial intelligence, moving away from traditional coding languages and towards natural human communication.

Historically, programming required specialised knowledge of languages like C++ or Python. Developers had to meticulously craft instructions for computers to follow.

Huang argues that AI has now evolved to understand and respond to human language, making programming more intuitive and accessible.

This transformation is largely driven by advancements in conversational AI models, such as ChatGPT, Gemini, and Copilot.

These systems allow users to issue commands in plain English – whether asking an AI to generate images, write a poem, or even create software code. Instead of writing complex algorithms, users can simply ask nicely, much like instructing a colleague or student.

Huang’s analogy extends beyond convenience. Just as people learn through feedback and iteration, AI models refine their responses based on user input.

If an AI-generated poem isn’t quite right, users can prompt it to improve, and it will think and adjust accordingly.

This iterative process mirrors human learning, where guidance and refinement lead to better outcomes.

The implications of this shift are profound. AI is no longer just a tool for experts – it is a great equalizer, enabling anyone to harness computing power without technical expertise.

As businesses integrate AI into their workflows, employees will need to adapt, treating AI as a collaborative partner rather than a mere machine.

This evolution in AI programming is not just about efficiency; it represents a new era where technology aligns more closely with human thought and interaction.

Trump and Musk feud – love to hate in 137 days – a billionaire brawl

Trump Musk Argue

It’s a worry – arguably the most powerful man in the world and the richest man in the world in a highly visible fallout.

Unrest and distrust at the top of U.S. government and the and in the corporate world – so what’s new?

Donald Trump and Elon Musk, once allies, have engaged in a heated public feud over a tax and spending bill. The conflict began when Musk criticised Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” calling it a “disgusting abomination” and warning it would increase the budget deficit. Trump retaliated on Truth Social, calling Musk “CRAZY” and threatening to terminate billions of dollars in government contracts for his companies.

Musk fired back on X, claiming Trump would have lost the election without his support and accusing him of being named in the unreleased Epstein files.

The spat has had financial repercussions, with Tesla’s stock plummeting over 14%, wiping out $152 billion in market value. Investors fear the fallout could impact Tesla’s regulatory environment under Trump’s administration.

Tesla 5-day chart

Tesla 5-day chart – 14% fall

Political figures have weighed in, with billionaire Bill Ackman urging the two to reconcile, while Steve Bannon suggested Trump should seize SpaceX under the Defence Production Act. Musk also polled followers on whether to create a new political party, gaining support from Mark Cuban and Andrew Yang.

It got worse

Elon Musk escalated his feud with Donald Trump by making explosive claims that Trump appears in the Epstein files, suggesting that this is why they have not been made public. Musk posted on X, “Time to drop the really big bomb: Donald Trump is in the Epstein files. That is the real reason they have not been made public.

“Have a nice day, DJT!”. He later doubled down, telling followers to “mark this post for the future” and insisting that “the truth will come out”.

Trump has denied any wrongdoing and dismissed Musk’s claims as retaliation for his tax bill. The White House press secretary called Musk’s comments “an unfortunate episode” and insisted that Trump is focused on passing his legislation.

Musk also endorsed a call for Trump’s impeachment, agreeing with a post that suggested Vice President JD Vance should replace Trump. This marks a dramatic shift, as Musk was previously a close ally of Trump and even held a government advisory role.

The feud continues to escalate, with Musk calling for the bill’s rejection and Trump defending it as a historic tax cut.

The position and authority of U.S. President Trump have been challenged. How will tariff trade negotiations and his standing with other world leaders progress from here?

I do have a couple of questions: why did Musk back Trump in the first place and, at what point in the 137 ‘love in’ days did he know about the Epstein link (if indeed there is one)?

Or did he know before?

Who to trust?

Trump’s tariffs challenged in court and deemed to be illegal

U.S. tariff court ruling

A U.S. federal court has ruled that former President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs were imposed illegally, dealing a significant blow to his economic policies.

The Court of International Trade determined that Trump exceeded his authority by invoking emergency powers to justify tariffs on nearly every country.

The ruling states that the U.S. Constitution grants Congress exclusive power to regulate commerce, meaning the president cannot unilaterally impose such broad trade restrictions.

The decision immediately halted the 10% tariffs Trump had imposed on most U.S. trading partners, as well as additional levies on China, Mexico, and Canada.

The court found that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which Trump cited as justification, does not grant him the authority to implement such sweeping trade measures.

The White House swiftly filed an appeal, arguing that the tariffs were necessary to address trade imbalances and safeguard American industries.

However, businesses and state governments that challenged the tariffs welcomed the ruling, citing concerns over inflation and economic harm.

Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures 28th & 29th May 2025 after the court ruling

Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures 28th & 29th May 2025 after the court ruling

Markets responded positively to the decision, with stock futures rising and the U.S. dollar strengthening. If the ruling stands, businesses that paid the tariffs may be eligible for refunds, marking a potential shift in U.S. trade policy.

The U.S. President is expected to find a workaround after suffering a major blow to a core part of his economic agenda.

Tesla’s European market meltdown – sales plunge 49% amid brand damage and fierce competition

Tesla's European sales fall!

Tesla’s vehicle sales in Europe plummeted by 49% in April 2025, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline.

Despite an overall 27.8% rise in battery-electric vehicle sales, Tesla struggled to maintain its foothold in the region.

The drop in sales has been attributed to increasing competition from Chinese automakers, a shift in consumer preferences towards hybrid vehicles, and growing backlash against CEO Elon Musk’s political affiliations.

Tesla’s market share in Europe nearly halved, falling from 1.3% to 0.7%. The company’s aging lineup, particularly the Model Y, has failed to attract new buyers, while rivals such as BYD have overtaken Tesla in European EV sales for the first time.

Additionally, European carmakers are cutting costs and adapting to U.S. tariffs on auto imports, further intensifying competition. Chinese EV manufacturers are also cutting EV prices.

While Tesla faces challenges in Europe, the broader EV market continues to expand, driven by government incentives and stricter emission targets.

However, unless Tesla refreshes its lineup and rebuilds consumer trust, its dominance in the European market may continue to erode.

The company’s future remains uncertain as it navigates political controversies and shifting market dynamics

BYD Surpasses Tesla in European EV sales for the first time in upset for Tesla

BYD

April 2025 marked a watershed moment in the European electric vehicle (EV) market as BYD outsold Tesla for the first time ever.

According to JATO Dynamics, BYD registered 7,231 battery-electric vehicles, narrowly surpassing Tesla’s 7,165 registrations.

This shift comes despite EU-imposed tariffs on Chinese-made EVs, which were expected to hinder BYD’s growth. However, the company’s aggressive expansion strategy and diversified lineup – including plug-in hybrids – helped it navigate trade barriers and maintain momentum.

Tesla, on the other hand, has faced declining sales, with its European registrations dropping 49% year-over-year. Production delays, protests against CEO Elon Musk, and consumer hesitation over new Model Y trims have contributed to the slump.

BYD’s success signals a changing landscape in Europe’s EV market. With its Hungarian production plant set to open soon, the company is poised for further growth.

Presumably now, Tesla must reassess its strategy to regain dominance in a market it once ruled.

As competition intensifies, European consumers will benefit from greater EV choices, potentially driving further innovation in the industry

Are we underestimating the impact of tariffs on S&P 500 earnings growth?

Asleep

As global trade tensions escalate, many investors and analysts are questioning whether markets are too complacent about the long-term effects of tariffs on corporate earnings.

While some argue that businesses have adapted to protectionist policies, others warn that the S&P 500’s earnings growth could face significant headwinds.

Tariffs: A hidden threat to profit margins

Tariffs increase costs for companies reliant on imported goods and materials. Businesses must either absorb these costs, pass them on to consumers, or find alternative suppliers – each option presenting challenges.

According to Goldman Sachs, an additional 5% tariff could reduce S&P 500 earnings by 1-2%.

A 100% tariff would equate to around 10-20% reduction in the S&P 500 – and that’s correction territory.

Retailers and manufacturers are particularly vulnerable

Companies like Best Buy, Walmart, and Target rely on imports, and higher tariffs could suppress profit margins or lead to higher consumer prices, potentially dampening demand.

Market sentiment vs. economic reality

Despite concerns, Wall Street has remained relatively optimistic. A recent 90-day tariff pause between the U.S. and China has boosted investor confidence, leading firms like Goldman Sachs and Yardeni Research to raise their S&P 500 targets.

This optimism may be short-lived if tariffs resume or escalate

Sector-specific risks

Certain industries are more exposed than others

Technology: Supply chain disruptions and higher costs for components could reduce profit margins.

Consumer Discretionary: Higher prices on imported goods could weaken consumer spending.

Industrials: Increased costs for raw materials could slow growth and investment.

The bigger picture: long-term economic impact

Beyond immediate earnings concerns, tariffs could stifle innovation, reduce global competitiveness, and slow economic growth.

Citi analysts estimate that aggressive tariffs could cut S&P 500 earnings growth by 2-3%.

A false sense of security?

While markets have bounced back from initial tariff shocks, the long-term effects remain uncertain.

Investors should closely monitor trade policies, sector-specific risks, and corporate earnings reports to assess whether the S&P 500’s growth trajectory is truly secure – or dangerously fragile.

Time will tell – but the S&P 500 is vulnerable to pressure right now!

Trump tariff roll-back – a win for China? U.S. markets rejoice the ‘deal’

U.S. markets gain on U.S China tariff roll-back announcement

The U.S. stock market surged as investors cheered a breakthrough in trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing.

The rollback of tariffs, announced as part of a new trade agreement, sent the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite soaring.

The deal, which slashes ‘reciprocal’ tariffs on both sides, is seen as a major de-escalation in the ongoing trade war that has rattled global markets for years.

Wall Street’s Reaction

Markets responded with enthusiasm as the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped over 1,000 points, while the S&P 500 climbed more than 2.5%, and the Nasdaq surged by nearly 3%.

Investors had been wary of prolonged trade tensions, which had weighed heavily on corporate earnings and economic growth.

The tariff rollback signals a potential thaw in relations, boosting confidence across sectors, particularly in technology, retail, and manufacturing.

Tariff rollback

Under the agreement, U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports will be reduced from 145% to 30%, while China’s tariffs on American goods will drop from 125% to 10%. The reductions will be in effect for 90 days, allowing both nations to continue negotiations on a broader trade framework.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasised that neither side wants a complete decoupling, and the rollback is intended to restore trade flows disrupted by years of economic brinkmanship.

China’s perspective: A strategic victory?

While the U.S. markets celebrated, China views the deal as a significant win. Beijing has sought relief from the steep tariffs imposed by Washington, which had strained its export-driven economy.

The agreement not only reduces financial pressure on Chinese manufacturers but also positions China as a key player in shaping future trade policies.

Some analysts argue that Beijing successfully leveraged its economic resilience to push Washington toward concessions, reinforcing its global influence.

Looking ahead

Despite the optimism, uncertainties remain. The 90-day window for negotiations suggests that further trade disputes could arise if talks stall. But will the U.S. allow that after the stock market turmoil Trump’s tariffs originally created?

Additionally, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell cautioned that while sentiment has improved, the economic impact of previous tariffs has yet to fully materialise. Investors will be watching closely for signs of sustained progress, as any setbacks could trigger renewed volatility.

For now, Wall Street is basking in the relief of a tariff truce, with hopes that this momentum will lead to a more stable and predictable trade environment.

Whether this marks the beginning of a lasting resolution or just a temporary reprieve remains to be seen.

It is most likely now a platform for the U.S. to benefit from generally lower tariffs in the future.

There will again be cheap goods on U.S. shelves in time for Christmas.

U.S. and China agree 90-day ‘reciprocal’ tariff pause and reduction deal

Tariff trade war 90-day pause

In a surprising breakthrough, the United States and China have agreed to suspend most tariffs on each other’s goods for 90 days, marking a significant step toward easing trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies.

Following high-stakes negotiations in Geneva, representatives from both nations announced that reciprocal tariffs would be slashed from 125% to 10%, significantly lowering trade barriers.

However, the U.S. will continue imposing 20% tariffs on Chinese imports related to fentanyl, meaning total tariffs on Chinese goods will settle at 30%.

The agreement signals a temporary thaw in what has been a long-standing economic standoff between Washington and Beijing. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who played a leading role in the discussions, described the talks as ‘very productive’, crediting the location for fostering an atmosphere of cooperation.

While this move could provide immediate relief for businesses and consumers impacted by trade restrictions, analysts caution that the 90-day suspension may not translate into a long-term solution.

Some experts speculate that ongoing trade negotiations could lead to further reductions, while others warn that unresolved tensions could lead to reinstated tariffs if agreements stall.

For now, the deal presents an opportunity for renewed dialogue, leaving global markets optimistic about future relations between the two economic powerhouses.

How the next three months unfold will determine whether this development is a stepping stone to broader reforms or simply a temporary reprieve in a complex trade dispute.

I expect Trump, having instigated the ‘tariff’ upheaval, will happily hang on to this ‘deal’ with China to avoid any further stock market turmoil.

What really just happened? The markets seem to be rewarding a situation that was artificially created and then ‘fixed’.

Aren’t we simply back where we were before the Trump tariff onslaught or is this really a ‘promise’ for better ‘deals’ to come?

Has it opened a door for better relations?

Create a problem… fix a problem!

It’s all about the U.S.

We’ll see…

Signs of weakness in the U.S. economy – is a recession coming and is the United States causing harm to global economies?

Cracking world economies

The U.S. economy is showing cracks as multiple indicators suggest that growth may be slowing.

With GDP shrinking by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, concerns about an impending recession have intensified among analysts and investors.

A key driver of this economic downturn is the ongoing trade uncertainty, which has prompted businesses to stock up on imports before new tariffs take effect.

While some experts argue this is a temporary setback, others caution that prolonged trade conflicts could stifle growth for months to come.

Resilient labour market

Despite these concerns, the labour market has remained resilient, with unemployment hovering at 4.2%. However, signs of strain are emerging – job openings have declined, and layoffs have picked up in certain industries.

If hiring slows further, consumer spending could weaken, adding pressure to the economy.

Inflation remains another point of concern. Rising costs of goods and services have strained household budgets, leading to reduced discretionary spending.

The Federal Reserve, which has maintained high interest rates, is carefully assessing whether policy adjustments are needed to prevent a sharper downturn.

On Wall Street, sentiment is divided. Goldman Sachs estimates a 45% probability of a recession, while J P Morgan suggests the likelihood could be as high as 60%.

Some economists believe strategic trade deals and government intervention could avert a full-blown recession, but the margin for error is slim.

Does it really matter if there is to be a recession – it will likely be short lived. It will not please the U.S. President Donald Trump.

While uncertainty clouds the future, one thing is clear – the U.S. economy is at a pivotal moment. Whether policymakers can stabilise growth or if the nation is headed towards a deeper slowdown will depend on the next few quarters and the outcome of Trump’s tariffs.

Tudor Investment Corporation

Paul Tudor Jones, the founder of Tudor Investment Corporation, recently shared his outlook on the U.S. economy, and his perspective isn’t exactly optimistic.

He believes that U.S. stocks are likely to hit new lows before the end of the year, even if President Trump dials back tariffs on Chinese imports.

Jones pointed out that the combination of high tariffs and the Federal Reserve’s reluctance to cut interest rates is putting significant pressure on the stock market.

He reportedly noted that even if Trump reduced tariffs to 50% or 40%, it would still amount to one of the largest tax increases since the 1960s, potentially slowing economic growth.

The billionaire investor also warned that unless the Fed adopts a more dovish stance and aggressively cuts rates, the market is likely to continue its downward trajectory.

He reportedly emphasised that the current economic conditions – marked by trade uncertainty and tight monetary policy – are not favourable for a stock market recovery.

Interestingly, Jones also expressed concerns about artificial intelligence, stating that AI poses an imminent threat to humanity within our lifetime.

Maybe AI will start running hedge funds too…?

S&P 500 achieves longest winning streak in two decades – then slides

S&P 500 hits new record!

The S&P 500 has surged to a new record, marking nine consecutive days of gains – its longest winning streak since November 2004.

This run came after significant market falls after President Trump announced his tariffs on Liberation Day in April 2025.

The index closed 1.47% higher on the final day of the streak on Friday 2nd May 2025, reflecting investor optimism amid shifting global economic conditions.

This historic run comes as China and the U.S. signal the potential of renewed trade discussions, easing concerns over tariffs and supply chain disruptions.

Additionally, a strong U.S. jobs report has bolstered confidence, with employment figures exceeding expectations. The rally has been broad-based, with technology, financial, and industrial stocks leading the charge.

Despite the impressive streak, analysts warn of potential volatility ahead. While the S&P 500 has demonstrated resilience, market corrections often follow extended periods of gains.

S&P 500 all-time chart as of 5th May 2025 – 9-day consecutive run record

S&P 500 all-time chart as of 5th May 2025 – 9-day consecutive run record

Investors are now watching for signs of consolidation or further momentum and that is down to Trump’s tariffs and the Fed’s interest rate decision.

FTSE 100 achieves longest unbroken run since inception in 1984 – how significant is this record?

Longest FTSE 100 consecutive daily gains since 1984

The FTSE 100 has made history, recording 15 consecutive days of gains—its longest winning streak since its inception in 1984.

The index closed at 8,596.35 points, marking a 1.17% rise on the final day of the streak.

This remarkable run comes amid the potential of easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, with signs that tariff negotiations may commence.

Investors have responded positively, driving up stock prices across multiple sectors. Financial stocks, including Barclays and HSBC, have surged following strong earnings reports, while industrial and mining stocks – such as Rolls-Royce and Rio Tinto – have rebounded.

Despite the impressive streak, analysts caution that uncertainty remains. The FTSE 100 has yet to reclaim its record high from March 2025, and concerns over global trade policies could limit further gains.

However, the index has still outperformed expectations, rising 4.9% over six months and 5.1% over the past year.

FTSE 100 one-month chart

FTSE 100 one-month chart

As investors celebrate this milestone, the question remains: can the FTSE 100 sustain its momentum, or is a market correction on the horizon?

Either way, this winning streak has cemented its place in financial history.

The Power of Dividend Investing – Building Wealth Through Passive Income

Investing

Dividend investing is a strategy that allows investors to generate consistent income while benefiting from long-term capital appreciation.

By purchasing shares in companies that regularly distribute a portion of their profits to shareholders, investors can create a reliable stream of passive income.

This approach is particularly attractive for those seeking financial stability, retirees looking for steady cash flow, or anyone aiming to reinvest dividends for compounded growth.

One of the key advantages of dividend investing is its ability to provide returns even during market downturns.

While stock prices fluctuate, dividend payments remain relatively stable, offering a cushion against volatility. Additionally, companies that consistently pay dividends often have strong financials, making them more resilient in economic downturns.

For investors looking to maximize their returns, selecting high-yield dividend stocks is crucial.

Here are five strong dividend-paying stocks to consider

  1. Aviva Plc – With a dividend yield of around 7%, Aviva remains a solid choice for income-focused investors.
  2. Legal & General – Offering around an impressive 8% yield, this financial services company is known for its consistent payouts.
  3. Phoenix Group – A standout in the insurance sector, Phoenix Group boasts around a 10% dividend yield.
  4. M&G – With around a 10% yield, M&G provides strong returns for dividend investors.
  5. BP Plc – A reliable energy sector pick, BP offers a 6% dividend yield.

Dividend investing is a powerful tool for wealth creation, offering both stability and growth potential.

By carefully selecting high-yield stocks, investors can build a portfolio that generates passive income while benefiting from long-term market appreciation.

Dividend investing is a powerful strategy for building wealth over time by generating passive income.

By holding shares in companies that consistently pay dividends, investors can benefit from regular payouts while also potentially enjoying capital appreciation.

Why Dividend Investing Works

  1. Steady Income Stream – Dividend-paying stocks provide regular income, which can be reinvested to compound wealth over time.
  2. Portfolio Stability – Companies that pay dividends are often well-established, helping to reduce volatility.
  3. Inflation Protection – Some dividends grow over time, helping investors maintain purchasing power.
  4. Tax Advantages – Depending on tax laws, dividends may be taxed at a lower rate than ordinary income.

Choosing Dividend Stocks

Investors typically look for companies with…

  • Consistent dividend payments
  • Low payout ratios (ensuring sustainability)
  • Strong financials and earnings growth
  • Dividend yield that balances risk and return

The Long-Term Benefit

By reinvesting dividends, investors can take advantage of compounding returns, where earnings generate additional earnings. Over decades, where earnings generate additional earnings.

Over decades, this strategy can build substantial wealth.

Remember to carefully do your own research. The dividend stocks listed here are NOT recommendations.

Many alternatives are available.

RESEARCH! RESEARCH! RESEARCH!

HSBC Reports Strong Q1 2025 Results Amid Economic Uncertainty with a 317% increase in pre-tax profit

HSBC

HSBC, Europe’s largest lender, has posted better-than-expected results for the first quarter of 2025, demonstrating resilience despite global economic challenges.

The bank reported a pre-tax profit of $9.48 billion, surpassing analyst estimates of $7.83 billion. Revenue for the quarter stood at $17.65 billion, reflecting a 15% decline compared to the previous year.

HSBC’s pre-tax profit for Q1 2025 was $9.48 billion, which represents a 25% decline compared to the same quarter last year when it reported $12.65 billion.

However, compared to the previous quarter, pre-tax profit surged by nearly 317%.

A key highlight of HSBC’s earnings announcement was its $3 billion share buyback program, which the bank intends to complete before its interim results later this year.

This move signals confidence in its financial position and commitment to returning value to shareholders.

Despite the strong performance, HSBC warned of heightened macroeconomic uncertainty, citing protectionist trade policies as a factor negatively impacting consumer and business sentiment.

However, the bank remains optimistic about its restructuring efforts, which are expected to drive cost savings and operational efficiency.

HSBC’s wealth business and corporate banking segments were standout performers, contributing significantly to its earnings growth.

CEO Georges Elhedery emphasised the bank’s strategic discipline and ability to navigate market volatility.

Stock markets see three-day recovery as U.S. tech boost offsets trade worries – but for how long?

Tech gains

Global markets have shown resilience in the past three days, rebounding from recent downturns as technology stocks rally amid cautious optimism.

The boost in investor confidence follows strong earnings reports from major tech firms, highlighting their ability to weather economic uncertainty.

However, lingering concerns about international trade tensions raise questions about how sustainable this recovery truly is.

Technology stocks have led the charge, with companies in artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and semiconductor production posting better-than-expected growth figures.

Investors have flocked to these sectors, hoping that innovation will drive forward profitability even amid broader market volatility.

This renewed enthusiasm has helped offset concerns over ongoing global trade disputes, which have led to tariffs and economic slowdowns in key sectors such as manufacturing and consumer goods.

Yet, beneath this recovery, risks persist. Geopolitical uncertainties, including unresolved trade negotiations between major economies, continue to cast a shadow over financial markets.

Inflationary pressures, alongside tightening monetary policies by central banks, also threaten to cool investor enthusiasm. Analysts warn that without concrete progress on trade agreements; the rebound may be short-lived.

As investors weigh the competing forces of technological optimism and trade anxieties, the market remains in a delicate balance.

The question remains: Is this recovery a sign of renewed growth, or merely a temporary respite before further economic turbulence?

With the next wave of financial reports and policy decisions on the horizon, market makers will be closely monitoring whether the tech sector’s momentum can sustain broader economic confidence – or whether trade headwinds will ultimately pull markets back into uncertainty again.

Tech gains ground again


Stocks jumped Thursday 24th April 2024 thanks to strong gains in Mega Cap tech names.

The S&P 500 ended up 2.03%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added 2.74%.

The S&P 500 index was able to exit correction territory, ending at least 10% above its recent low set in the wake of President Donald Trump’s 2nd April 2025 ‘liberation day’ tariffs.

For the S&P 500 to maintain its rapid exit from correction territory – it now has to witness Trump’s tariff walk-back and the ‘cooling’ of a potential Fed fight.

Trump seems to be the first to have ‘blinked’ on his self-imposed tariffs suggesting the tariffs are too high and will not go any higher – thy are high enough!

China has reportedly said there are no ‘ongoing’ trade talks?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged the other two indexes but still added 1.23% and retook the 40,000 for the first time since 15th April 2025.

 Japan’s Nikkei 225 up almost 2% and leading gains.

Alphabet shares climb after better than expected results


Alphabet reported stronger-than-expected first-quarter growth on Thursday 24th April 2025.

Alphabet’s search and advertising units are still showing strong growth despite AI competition heating up, according to its first-quarter earnings report.

The company’s overall revenue grew 12% year-on-year, higher than the 10% Wall Street expected.

Shares rose more than 5% in after-hours trading. 

However, Alphabet reportedly indicated to expect ‘slight headwind’ to ads business this year.

Intel also posts results beat, but warns of tariff impact


Intel reported first-quarter results on 24th April 2025 that beat analysts’ estimates but also reportedly issued disappointing guidance. 

Second-quarter revenue will come in below estimates due to elevated uncertainty driven by the macro environment, the company warned.

Intel was reported saying that President Donald Trump’s tariffs and retaliation from other countries had increased the likelihood of a U.S. recession.

Big tech gains drive markets but the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariffs remain.

World’s largest sovereign wealth fund reports $40 billion loss

Wealth

Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, the largest in the world, has reported a first-quarter loss of $40 billion, largely due to a downturn in the technology sector.

The fund, managed by Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM), saw its value drop to 18.53 trillion kroner by the end of March 2025, with 70% of its investments in equities, which recorded a 1.6% loss.

CEO Nicolai Tangen attributed the decline to significant market fluctuations, particularly in tech stocks, which have faced recent sell-offs. The fund holds major stakes in Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla, and Microsoft, all of which have experienced volatility.

Additionally, currency movements played a role, with the Norwegian krone strengthening against key currencies, contributing to an 879 billion kroner (around $84.5 billion) decrease in the fund’s value.

Despite the losses, NBIM maintains a diversified portfolio, with fixed-income investments returning 1.6% and unlisted real estate yielding 2.4% gains.

This downturn follows a record $222 billion profit in 2024, driven by the AI boom, highlighting the fund’s exposure to tech sector fluctuations.

As global markets remain uncertain, NBIM continues to navigate economic shifts while managing Norway’s oil and gas revenues.

British Fintech Revolut Surpasses $1 Billion in Profit – Eyes UK Banking Expansion

Revolut banking revolution

British fintech giant Revolut has achieved a major financial milestone, reporting £1.1 billion ($1.5 billion) in net profit for 2024, marking a 149% increase from the previous year.

The company’s revenue also saw significant growth, surging 72% to £3.1 billion, driven by a combination of subscription services, wealth management, and interest income.

One of the standout contributors to this success was Revolut’s wealth unit, which includes stock trading, boasting a 298% jump in revenue. The firm’s loan book also expanded 86% to £979 million, further strengthening its financial position.

This growth comes at a pivotal moment for Revolut, as it prepares to launch its UK bank later this year after securing a banking licence in 2024.

Once fully operational, the bank will enable Revolut to offer traditional financial services, including loans, overdrafts, and mortgages, enhancing its appeal as a primary banking option.

Revolut’s UK CEO has emphasised that securing full banking authorisation is a crucial step toward global expansion and an eventual IPO.

As the company continues to evolve, it faces stiff competition from established players such as Monzo and Starling, both of whom secured banking licences years earlier.

Revolut’s remarkable financial performance signals its ambitions to become a dominant force in banking – a fintech powerhouse redefining modern finance.

About Revolut

Revolut is a British fintech company that provides digital banking services, including currency exchange, stock trading, cryptocurrency transactions, and personal finance management.

The name ‘Revolut’ suggests a revolution in financial services, aiming to simplify and modernise banking through technology.

Founded in 2015 by Nikolay Storonsky and Vlad Yatsenko, Revolut started as a platform offering fee-free foreign exchange and has since expanded into a global financial super app.

It operates in multiple countries and serves millions of customers, offering both free and subscription-based banking services.

Tesla and Musk struggle against Trump’s Tariff Tidalwave

Tesla

Tesla has been making headlines with a series of major developments, from financial setbacks to strategic shifts by CEO Elon Musk.

The electric vehicle giant recently reported a 20% drop in automotive revenue, a significant decline that has raised concerns among investors.

Meanwhile, Musk has announced that he will be spending much less time on the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), a move that could signal a renewed focus on Tesla.

Additionally, Tesla’s ambitious Optimus humanoid robot project has hit a roadblock due to China’s restrictions on rare earth materials, further complicating the company’s future plans.

Tesla’s Revenue Decline

Tesla’s first-quarter earnings report revealed a 20% drop in automotive revenue, with total revenue sliding 9% year-on-year.

The company attributed the decline to factory retooling for a refreshed Model Y, lower average selling prices, and increased sales incentives.

Net income plummeted 71%, reflecting the broader challenges Tesla faces in a competitive EV market.

Tesla 3 month share price chart 2025

The company has refrained from promising growth this year, stating that it will revisit its 2025 guidance in its Q2 update.

Musk’s Shift Away from DOGE

Elon Musk’s involvement in the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has been a controversial topic, with critics arguing that his political commitments have distracted him from Tesla’s operations.

However, Musk has now confirmed that his time allocation to DOGE will drop significantly, allowing him to focus more on Tesla.

He stated that he will likely spend only one or two days per week on government matters, a shift that could reassure investors concerned about his divided attention.

Reports of his popularity in recent U.S. polls suggest he is out of favour with the American people and is now low in people’s opinion around the world because of his contentious DOGE role.

Optimus Robots and China’s Rare Earth Restrictions

Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robots, which Musk has touted as a revolutionary step toward automation, have encountered a major obstacle due to China’s export restrictions on rare earth materials.

The restrictions, imposed as part of an escalating trade war, have disrupted Tesla’s supply chain, particularly affecting the rare earth magnets used in Optimus actuators.

Musk has expressed hope that Tesla will secure an export licence, but the uncertainty surrounding the restrictions could delay production.

Looking Ahead

Tesla is navigating a challenging landscape, balancing financial setbacks, Musk’s shifting priorities, and geopolitical hurdles.

While the company remains a leader in EV innovation, its ability to adapt to market pressures and geopolitical challenges will be crucial in determining its future success.

Investors and industry watchers will be closely monitoring Tesla’s next moves as it works to regain momentum.

U.S. stocks slide again as Trump publicly criticises Fed Chair Powell

Jerome Powell criticised

President Donald Trump’s recent criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has sent shockwaves through the financial markets, reigniting concerns about the central bank’s independence.

On Monday 21st April 2025, Trump took to social media to publicly call Powell a ‘major loser’ and demanded immediate interest rate cuts, warning of an economic slowdown if his demands were not met.

This public rebuke, coupled with Trump’s earlier threats to terminate Powell, has unsettled investors and triggered another sharp sell-off in U.S. stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged nearly 1,000 points, or 2.48%, closing at 38170. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also suffered significant losses, falling 2.36% and 2.55%.

Dow Jones one-year chart

Dow Jones one-year chart

Trump continues to create uncertainty

Analysts attribute this market turmoil to fears that Trump’s rhetoric could undermine the Federal Reserve’s ability to operate independently, a cornerstone of its credibility.

‘Magnificent Seven’ tech companies dragged the major indexes lower, with Tesla and Nvidia respectively losing 5.8% and more than 4%. Amazon shed 3%, and Meta Platforms suffered losses too.

Tesla one-year chart

Tesla one-year chart

Adding to the uncertainty, Trump’s tariff policies have already strained investor confidence. The combination of trade tensions and doubts about the Fed’s autonomy has led to a flight from U.S. assets.

The dollar hit a three-year low, while gold prices soared to record highs above $3,400 per ounce as investors sought safe-haven assets.

Market experts warn that prolonged uncertainty could have far-reaching implications. ‘The market is okay with rates coming down,’ reportedly said Thierry Wizman, a global currency strategist. ‘What the market is not okay with is having the president or politicians tell the Fed that the rates need to come down’.

As Trump’s public rebuttal of Powell continues, investors observe the potential implications. The stakes are high, not just for the U.S. economy but for global markets that rely on the stability of American financial institutions.

Investors are left grappling with a volatile landscape, where political pressures and economic policies collide.

The Trump ‘turmoil’ continues.

Tech driven sell-off gained at pace as Nasdaq dropped 3% and Dow Jones down 700 points

Tech in the red

The stock market experienced another sharp Trump tariff related downturn Wednesday 16th April 2025, driven by a tech-heavy sell-off continuing to rattle investors.

The Nasdaq Composite plunged by 3%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed nearly 700 points, marking one of the most significant declines in recent months.

Concerns over tariffs and inflation were amplified by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks about the tariff uncertainty, which highlighted the challenging economic landscape.

Tech stocks bore the brunt of the sell-off, with semiconductor companies like Nvidia and AMD leading the decline. Nvidia’s announcement of a $5.5 billion quarterly charge related to export restrictions on its chips to China added to the sector’s woes.

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF dropped over 4%, reflecting broader uncertainty in the industry.

Powell’s comments on tariffs exacerbated market fears, as he warned of potential stagflation—a scenario where inflation rises while economic growth slows.

This sentiment was echoed across trading floors, with investors grappling with the implications of ongoing trade tensions and restrictive policies.

As the market inches closer to bear territory, the focus remains on navigating these turbulent times.

The sell-off underscores the fragility of investor confidence and the pivotal role of technology in shaping market dynamics

Tech stocks propel market rally amid Trump’s tariff pause

Stocks move back up

On Monday 14th April 2025, the stock market experienced a notable mini rally, driven by the tech sector’s resurgence following a weekend announcement of a temporary tariff pause.

President Trump’s decision to exempt smartphones, computers, and other electronics from steep tariffs provided a much-needed reprieve for the industry, sparking optimism among investors.

Major tech companies like Apple, Nvidia, and Amazon saw significant gains, with Apple shares surging by 7.5%. The Nasdaq Composite, heavily weighted with tech stocks, climbed 1.9%, while the S&P 500 rose 1.5%.

This rally marked a stark contrast to the volatility of the previous week, where tariff uncertainties had sent shockwaves through the market.

The tariff pause, although temporary and restricted to 20%, helped to alleviate immediate concerns about rising costs for consumers and businesses.

Importers were spared from choosing between absorbing higher expenses or passing them on to customers. This relief was particularly impactful for companies reliant on Chinese manufacturing, as the exemptions covered a wide range of tech products.

Market analysts noted that the rally was not just a reaction to the tariff news but also a reflection of the tech sector’s resilience.

Despite facing challenges earlier in the year, tech companies have continued to innovate and adapt, maintaining their position as a driving force in the U.S. and world economies.

However, the rally’s sustainability remains uncertain. The administration’s mixed messages about future tariffs have left investors cautious.

While Monday’s gains were encouraging, the broader market continues to grapple with the unpredictability of trade policies.

Trump takes wrecking ball to global trade – sets stock markets on fire and plays golf – all in one week

Reckless tariffs

Is this a fair ‘take’ on the last weeks tariff turmoil?

President Trump’s tariffs have left a significant mark on global trade and financial markets, creating waves that continue to shape global economic dynamics.

The tariffs, initially aimed at reducing the U.S. trade deficit and protecting domestic industries, triggered a rollercoaster ride for stock markets and strained international relations.

Highs to lows

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500 experienced sharp declines following the announcement of sweeping tariffs. At their lowest points, the Dow fell to 37226, the Nasdaq dropped to 15266, and the S&P 500 sank to 4956.

These figures marked significant losses, with trillions of dollars wiped off the market in just a few days.

The volatility was exacerbated by fears of a global trade war and the uncertainty surrounding the tariffs’ implementation.

Tariff turmoil and 90 day pause

In response to the market turmoil, President Trump announced a 90-day pause on most tariffs, providing temporary relief to investors and businesses. This decision led to a rebound in stock markets, with indices recovering some of their losses.

However, the relief was short-lived, as tensions with China escalated. While tariffs on many trading partners were paused, China’s tariff rate was increased to a staggering 125%.

This move further strained U.S.-China relations and added pressure on industries reliant on Chinese imports.

Tech garners favour

The tech sector, heavily dependent on global supply chains, was among the hardest hit. Tariffs on components like microchips and finished products such as smartphones and computers disrupted production and increased costs.

Companies faced challenges in maintaining profitability and passing on the increased costs to consumers. The eventual reduction and cancellation of some tariffs provided a lifeline to the tech industry, allowing businesses to stabilize operations and reduce prices.

However, the uncertainty surrounding trade policies continued to pose challenges for the sector.

Market turmoil?

Was this the ultimate in market ‘management’ as President Trump posted on his social media platform, Truth Social, that it was a ‘great time to buy’ just hours before announcing the 90-day tariff pause.?

This statement, made at 9:37 am., came shortly before the announcement, which caused stock markets to surge significantly. The timing of his post raised eyebrows and sparked discussions about potential insider trading concerns

China retaliates

China’s response to the tariffs was swift and retaliatory. Beijing imposed its own tariffs on U.S. imports, raising rates to 125%. This retaliation targeted key U.S. industries, including agriculture and technology, further escalating the trade conflict.

The Chinese yuan also hit its lowest level against the dollar since the global financial crisis. These measures highlighted the deepening economic rift between the world’s two largest economies.

The effects of President Trump’s tariffs underscore the complexities of modern trade policies. While intended to protect domestic industries, the tariffs created significant economic disruptions, both domestically and globally.

The stock market volatility, strained international relations, and challenges faced by industries like technology illustrate the far-reaching consequences of such policies.

As the world continues to navigate the aftermath of these tariffs, the importance of balanced and strategic trade policies becomes increasingly evident.

Markets moved up, unsurprisingly, after Trump announced the tech tariff adjustment

Over the weekend, President Trump reportedly made several statements about tariffs on tech products, creating some confusion.

Initially, it was announced that smartphones, computers, and other electronics would be temporarily excluded from the steep tariffs.

However, Trump later clarified that these products were not entirely exempt but had been moved to a different ‘tariff bucket.’ He reportedly stated that they would still face a 20% tariff as part of broader measures targeting Chinese goods.

Trump also hinted at upcoming tariffs on semiconductors and the entire electronics supply chain, emphasising the need for the U.S. to produce more of these components domestically.

President Trump reportedly described this as part of a ‘National Security Tariff Investigation’. These announcements have left tech companies and investors uncertain about the long-term implications for the industry.

Tariffs are like a spider’s web cast over the world with the spider, crawling around collecting from its prey.

Trump’s tariffs continue to ‘infect’ world trade, and they will be here for a while yet.

Just a thought…

Fickleness of the stock market

Do you believe in the ‘collective unconscious’, a universal mind to which all humanity is connected?

In the context of the financial world, the stock market is based on unwavering fundamental mathematics… numbers. However, is often driven by sentiment, instinct, hopes and fears.

They both function in a similar manner.

In other words, it is essentially a sentiment tracker.

This was very evident in the stock market movement during ‘normal’ trading hours immediately preceding U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff plan unveiling, contrasted with extended trading.

Investors had time to digest the sheer weight of the heavy tariffs on countries across the globe – we then witnessed an instant stock reversal after almost ‘normal’ trading before.

The point

Trump hinted at leniency on tariffs days before revealing his true intentions. However, that sense of mercy was absent, as the tariffs were sweeping and severe.

To describe Trump’s plan as a seismic shift in the economic and financial order might be understatement.

It will take time for tariff price changes to filter into the economy, but the stock market, reflecting the collective unconscious of investors, registered this shock instantly – just minutes after a stock climb.

That’s the markets for you.