Dame Alison Rose, the former chief executive of NatWest Group, will lose out on £7.6m after she admitted to discussing the closure of Nigel Farage’s bank account with a BBC journalist.
Another word for getting the sack?
She ‘resigned’ from the banking group in July 2023, after the former Ukip leader complained about a BBC report that claimed his accounts with Coutts, a private bank owned by NatWest, were closed for commercial reasons.
Apology
The BBC later apologised and amended its story, saying that it had checked with a senior source, whom Dame Alison later confirmed was herself, that Mr Farage’s accounts were closed because he fell below Coutts’s wealth threshold.
The Information Commissioner’s Office (ICO) initially suggested that Dame Alison had breached data privacy laws by confirming Mr Farage’s banking arrangements, but later issued a formal apology, saying it was ‘incorrect’ and that it had not investigated her.
‘I’m sorry you didn’t get your full pay deal of £10 million – but I guess £2.4 million will help with Christmas this year’.
Her saga reportedly wiped £850m off the value of NatWest Group. The long-term damage to the bank and banking sector likely hasn’t been fully realised yet.
The U.K. economy flatlined in the third quarter, initial figures showed Friday 10th November 2023.
Gross domestic product (GDP) showed zero quarterly growth in the three months to the end of September 2023, following an increase of 0.2% in the previous quarter. In annual terms, the UK’s Q3 GDP was 0.6% higher than in the same period in 2022.
Services sector output dropped 0.1% on the quarter, but the decline was offset by a 0.1% increase in construction performance, while the production sector flatlined.
U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt said high inflation remains the ‘single greatest barrier to economic growth’ in the country, with the consumer price index remaining at 6.7% year-on-year in September 2023.
UK economy flatlines as inflation sticks at 6.7% year-on-year as at September 2023.
‘The best way to sustainably grow our economy right now is to stick to our plan and knock inflation on its head’, Hunt reportedly said.
It’s useful to know the government have a plan, even though they were very late to the inflation party! Guess they were sidetracked with all the other parties at No.10!
‘The Autumn Statement will focus on how we get the economy growing healthily again by unlocking investment, getting people back into work and reforming our public services so we can deliver the growth our country needs’.
Up until September 2023, the Bank of England (BoE) raised interest rates 14 consecutive times to try to influence the UK ‘product and service’ price climb.
Red flags
Interest rates are now at a 15-year high of 5.25%, and are expected to remain high for some time to come. Bank Governor Andrew Bailey reportedly said last week it was ‘much too early’ to be considering rate cuts.
Thank you Governor Baily – it so comforting and reassuring to know that the very people who missed the red inflation flags are still in charge of policy.
Transitory?
Remember, the BoE and others originally suggested inflation would be transitory – I suppose it is, if given years to move back down. What did you think was going to happen after all that borrowing and the country crawling back to work after the pandemic.
Nice job guys! Don’t forget to collect your paycheque on the way out!
The Bank of England (BoE) announced its latest interest rate decision on Thursday, 2nd November 2023 to hold the bank rate at 5.25%.
The Bank of England’s (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 5-4 to maintain Bank Rate at 5.25%, the highest level in 15 years. However, four members preferred to increase the bank rate, to 5.5%.
The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes by £100 billion over the next twelve months, to a total of £658 billion.
The BoE’s decision was influenced by the weak economic outlook, the high inflation rate, and the uncertainty surrounding the Covid-19 pandemic and the Brexit saga.
The BoE said that the UK economy was likely to contract by 0.5% in Q3 2023, and that underlying growth in the second half of 2023 was also likely to be weaker than expected. The BoE also warned that there was a 50% chance of a recession in the next year (50/50). I think even I could guess with odds at 50/50.
2% target inflation to be hit by Q2 2025
The BoE also said that inflation, which was 6.7% in September 2023, was expected to peak at around 7% in Q4 2023, before falling back to the 2% target by 2025 Q2. The BoE said that the inflation spike was largely driven by temporary factors, such as higher energy and food prices, and that it would not respond to it.
The Bank of England was behind the curve calling it transitory. Can we trust any future forecasts?
The BoE’s decision was in line with the market expectations, as most analysts and investors had predicted that the BoE would keep rates on hold.
The UK supercomputer project is a major initiative by the UK government to boost the country’s capabilities in artificial intelligence, weather forecasting, climate research and other highly important scientific research projects.
The project involves building and connecting two new supercomputers across the UK: Isambard-AI and Dawn.
Dawn will be a new supercomputer cluster at the University of Cambridge, delivered by a partnership with Dell and UK SME StackHPC. It will be powered by over 1,000 Intel chips that use water-cooling to reduce power consumption. It will target breakthroughs in fusion energy, healthcare and climate modelling.
The UK supercomputer project is part of a £300 million investment from the government to create a new national Artificial Intelligence Research Resource for the country. The project is expected to be completed by summer 2024.
The investment comes as the UK hosts an AI safety summit in Bletchley Park, home of World War II codebreakers.
These announcements are all part of the £1 billion supercomputer plan launched in May 2023.
The White House has announced what it is calling ‘the most significant actions ever taken by any government to advance the field of AI safety’.
Oh really! Coincidence or deliberate attempt to undermine the UK AI safety drive?
This news comes as the UK draws attention hosting a UK led AI summit. The U.S. wants to police and control the AI arena too as it does most other aspects of our life.
Biden order
An executive order from President Biden requires Artificial Intelligence AI developers to share safety results with the U.S. government. It is an attempt to place the U.S, at the centre of the global debate on AI governance.
However, this is a position the UK government has already engineered as the UK AI safety summit gets underway this week. The UK desires to place itself at the centre of AI governance.
U.S. executive order
The U.S. executive order from Biden suggests the U.S. fancies itself as the leader of global AI governance in terms of how to address such threats or does it simply want to stamp its authority in the AI world. It tried to do the same with cryptocurrencies but fundamentally failed.
U.S. measures include
Creating new safety and security standards for AI, including measures that require AI companies to share safety test results with the federal government.
Protecting consumer privacy, by creating guidelines that agencies can use to evaluate privacy techniques used in AI.
Helping to stop AI algorithms discriminate and creating best practices on the appropriate role of AI in the justice system.
Creating a program to evaluate potentially harmful AI related healthcare practices and creating resources on how educators can responsibly use AI tools
Working with international partners to implement AI standards around the world.
UK AI summit
The UK summit is referenced in the executive order. But it’s mentioned under the heading of ‘advancing American leadership abroad’ – indicating that the U.S. very clearly knows that it is the big player here alongside China.
The UK is determined to position itself as a global leader in the space of trying to minimise the risks posed by this powerful technology.
However, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris and top executives from the U.S. tech giants are arriving in the UK this week to discuss AI safety at the UK government’s AI Summit, which it has billed as a ‘world first’.
The summit, hosted by UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, will focus on the growing fears about the implications of so-called frontier AI. President of the EU Commission Ursula von der Leyen and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres will also be in attendance.
The UK is determined to position itself as a global leader in the space of trying to minimise the risks posed by this powerful technology.
But the U.S. as usual, will want to be in control…
The UK government said it intends to bring a number of crypto asset activities under the same regulations that govern banks and other financial services firms.
Regulating a broad suite of crypto activities, such as trading, lending, and custody services.
Strengthening rules for crypto trading platforms and requiring them to have admission and disclosure documents.
Introducing a crypto market abuse regime to prevent manipulation and fraud.
Enhancing oversight of stablecoins, which are digital tokens pegged to fiat currencies or other assets.
The government’s consultation paper is open for feedback until January 31, 2024.
The government said it is committed to embracing technological change and innovation, while mitigating the most significant risks posed by crypto-assets.
The inflation rate in Argentina is extremely high and has surpassed 100% for the first time since the early 1990’s. The inflation rate for consumer prices in Argentina was 138.28% in September 2023, based on the CPI values for the last 12 months.
This means that the prices of many goods and services have more than doubled since 2022. The main factors that contributed to this increase were the rise in food prices, especially meat, due to adverse weather conditions and a drought, as well as the economic difficulties and policy divisions that have plagued the country for years.
Argentina has been receiving bailout funds from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), but it has not been able to contain inflation, which has eroded the purchasing power of many people and pushed them into poverty.
The inflation rate in Argentina is one of the highest in the world and has a negative impact on its economic growth and social stability.
Map of Argentina
Map of Argentina
Argentina is the second largest country in South America, the fourth largest in the Americas, and the eighth largest in the world.
The amount of U.S. debt is a complex and controversial topic that has different perspectives, implications and opinion.
According to the U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data, the national debt of the United States was $33.52 trillion as of 23rd October 2023.
This includes both the debt held by the public, which is the amount the federal government owes to outside entities such as foreign governments, corporations, and individuals, and the debt held by federal government accounts, which is the amount the federal government owes to itself, such as trust funds and special funds.
Is U.S. debt a problem?
Some argue that the U.S. debt is a problem because it increases the risk of a fiscal crisis, reduces the government’s ability to respond to emergencies, imposes a burden on future generations, and lowers the nation’s creditworthiness.
Others contend that the U.S. debt is not a problem because the U.S. can always print more money, (isn’t this why there is so much debt already)? Borrow at low interest rates, (not easy in the current climate), stimulate economic growth, and benefit from its status as the world’s reserve currency.
So, is U.S. debt a problem or not? It depends on various factors such as the size, composition, and sustainability of the debt, as well as the economic and political context in which it operates.
Most analysts and policymakers agree that the U.S. debt is projected to grow faster than the economy in the long-term, which could pose significant challenges for fiscal policy and economic stability. Therefore, it is important to understand the causes and consequences of the U.S. debt and to find solutions that balance the trade-offs between spending and income.
Debt in relation to GDP
The U.S. debt of GDP was estimated to be around 120% to 130% in 2023.
The U.S. debt of GDP is the ratio of the total public debt of the United States to its gross domestic product (GDP), which measures the size of the economy.
The U.S. Treasury yields are the interest rates that the U.S. government pays to borrow money for different periods of time.
The 10-year Treasury yield is one of the most important indicators of the state of the economy and the expectations of inflation and growth. On 23rd October 2023, the 10-year Treasury yield rose above 5% for the first time since 2007, as investors increasingly accepted that interest rates will stay higher for longer and that the U.S. government will further increase its borrowing to cover its deficits.
Significant
This is a significant milestone, as it reflects the market’s view that the Federal Reserve will maintain elevated interest rates to control inflation and that the U.S. economy will remain resilient despite the challenges posed by the Covid-19 pandemic, geopolitical tensions and environmental issues.
The higher yield also means that the government will have to pay more to service its debt, which could affect its fiscal policy and spending priorities. The higher yield also affects other borrowing costs, such as mortgages, student loans, and corporate bonds, which could have implications for consumers and businesses.
10 Year Yield
The 10-year Treasury yield is influenced by many factors, such as supply and demand, inflation expectations, economic growth, monetary policy, and global events. The yield has been rising steadily since it hit a record low of 0.5% in March 2020, when the pandemic triggered a flight to safety and a massive stimulus from the Fed. Since then, the yield has been driven by the recovery of the economy, the surge in inflation, the reversal of the Fed’s bond-buying program, and the increase in the government’s borrowing needs.
Yield curve
The ten-year yield is closely watched by investors, analysts and policymakers as it provides a benchmark for valuing other assets and assessing the outlook for the economy. The yield is also used to calculate the yield curve, which is the difference between short-term and long-term Treasury yields.
The shape of the yield curve can indicate the market’s expectations of future interest rates and economic activity.
Artwork impression of computer screen: U.S. ten-year treasury yield breaches 5% for the first time since 2007
A steep yield curve means that long-term yields are much higher than short-term yields, which suggests that investors expect higher inflation and growth in the future. A flat or inverted yield curve means that long-term yields are lower than or equal to short-term yields, which implies that investors expect lower inflation and growth or even a recession.
The current yield curve is steepening, as long-term yields are rising faster than short-term yields. This indicates that investors are anticipating higher inflation and growth in the long run, but also that they are concerned about the sustainability of the government’s fiscal position and the impact of higher interest rates on the economy.
Indicators
The 10-year Treasury yield is an important indicator of the state of the economy and the expectations of inflation and growth. It has reached a level that has not been seen since before the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. This reflects the market’s view that interest rates will stay higher for longer and that the government will increase its borrowing to cover its deficits. The higher yield also affects other borrowing costs and asset prices, which could have implications for consumers and businesses.
The yield is influenced by many factors and is closely watched by investors, policymakers, and analysts. A 5% yield is a worry for the market, inflation, interest rates, geo-political risks and recession are the others, that’s enough!
The curbs are aimed at closing loopholes that became apparent after the U.S. announced export curbs on microchips in October 2022. The restrictions are designed to prevent China’s military from importing advanced semiconductors or equipment.
Nvidia has said in a filing that the new export restrictions will block sales of two high-end artificial intelligence chips it created for the Chinese market – A800 and H800. It said that one of its gaming chips will also be blocked.
Nvidia Corp one month chart – closed at 439.38 17th October 2023
Although the curbs also affect other chip makers, analysts believe Nvidia will be hit the hardest because China accounts for up to 25% of its revenues from data centre chip sales. Nvidia’s shares, which are considered a star stock, fell by as much as 4.7% in the wake of the announcement.
Semiconductor Industry Association
The Semiconductor Industry Association, which represents 99% of the U.S. semiconductor industry by revenue, said in a statement that the new measures are ‘overly broad‘ and ‘risk harmingthe U.S. semiconductor structure without advancing national security as they encourage overseas customers to source elsewhere’.
China reacts
A spokesperson for the Chinese embassy also said that it ‘firmly opposes‘ the new restrictions, which also target Iran and Russia and go into effect in 30 days.
Nvidia stock falls after restrictions on AI chip exports from U.S. to China
Two months ago, China retaliated by restricting exports of two materials, gallium and germanium, which are key to the semiconductor industry.
The materials are ‘minor metals‘, meaning that they are not usually found on their own in nature, and are often the by-product of other processes. It’s not only the U.S., Japan and the Netherlands – which is home to key chip equipment maker ASML – have also imposed chip technology export restrictions on China.
Fallout
The constant ‘fall-out’ between the world’s two biggest economies has raised concerns over the rise of so-called ‘resource nationalism‘ – a practice where governments hoard critical materials to exert influence over other countries.
It means prices are still rising at the same rate as the previous month.
Petrol and diesel costs kept inflation up, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) says, but food and non-alcoholic drink prices fell for the first time since September 2021.
Food inflation falls the most
Milk, cheese and eggs are among the products that went down the most; the price of household appliances and airfares fell to.
In response to the latest figures, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said, ‘inflation rarely falls in a straight line’. He pledged to stick to the government’s promise to get the main rate of inflation down to 5% by the end of the year.
Thank you for that enlightening comment, Mr Hunt. May I remind you that even if you hit the target the government set of 5% by the end of the year; inflation will still be a whopping 3% above the Bank of England (BoE) original target!
Targets! Targets! Targets!
Thank you for that enlightening comment, Mr Hunt. May I remind you that even if you hit the target the government set of 5% by the end of the year; inflation will still be a whopping 3% above the Bank of England (BoE) original target!
Come on – get your act together! You really should have prepared batter and seen this coming.
The world may be facing ‘the most dangerous time… in decades’, bank boss Jamie Dimon has reportedly warned.
The chief executive of JP Morgan Chase told investors recently that he was concerned about the risks to the economy from rising geo-political tensions. He said wars in Ukraine and Israel could hit energy and food prices, and global trade.
Thousands have been killed in Israel and Gaza after an unprecedented attack by Palestinian militant group Hamas. Mr Dimon, who leads America’s biggest bank, was speaking as the firm revealed its latest quarterly results.
Banking the profits from higher interest rates
The bank reported $13 billion (£10.7 billion) in profit over the three months to September 2023, up 35% from the same period in 2022.
Dimon said the bank had benefited from U.S. households and business in healthy financial shape but warned that he remained cautious about the state of the global economy, given the many risks emerging. What about the effect of interest rate increases on profits the bank has benefitted from too?
‘My caution is that we are facing so many uncertainties out there,‘ he reportedly said. So helpful Mr. Dimon. He told investors they should be prepared to face higher interest rates, persistent inflation, as well as fallout from the violent conflicts.
How perceptive?
I wouldn’t necessarily call his comments very intuitive – interest, inflation and conflict is there for all to see.
Shame he didn’t use his super magical powers of detection to get ahead of the inflation problem earlier.
Will these projects alter the world weather pattern?
According to a study, installing large-scale wind and solar farms in the Sahara desert could increase rainfall and vegetation in the region. The researchers simulated the effects of covering 20% of the Sahara with solar panels and wind turbines and found that it would trigger a feedback loop of more monsoon rain and more plant growth.
This could have benefits for the local environment and the global climate, as well as providing a huge amount of clean energy for the world.
Could it also create a detrimental effect to the ecosystem too?
10.5 GW solar energy
The desert project would produce 10.5 GW of solar power and 3 GW of wind power. However, there are also challenges and uncertainties involved, such as the cost, feasibility, and environmental impacts of such a massive undertaking.
The Sahara is a desert on the African continent. With an area of 9,200,000 square kilometres, it is the largest hot desert in the world and the third-largest desert overall, smaller only than the deserts of Antarctica and the northern Arctic.
Daily global electricity energy demand
The global electricity energy demand is the amount of electricity that the world needs in a given day. It can be calculated by multiplying the average global electricity demand in GW by 24 hours. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the average global electricity demand in 2020 was about 3 TW or 3 000 GW. This means that the global electricity energy demand in 2020 was about 72 000 GWh or 72 TWh per day. However, this is an average value, and the actual demand may vary depending on the season, time of day, weather, and other factors.
The researchers simulated the effects of covering 20% of the Sahara with solar panels and wind turbines and found that it would trigger a feedback loop of more monsoon rain and more plant growth.
In the Announced Pledges Scenario, renewables in electricity generation rise from 28% in 2021 to about 50% by 2030 and 80% by 2050.
The interest the government pays on national debt has reached a 20-year high as the rate on 30-year bonds touches 5.05%.
A rise in the cost of borrowing comes at a difficult time for the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, as he prepares for the autumn statement on 22nd November 2023. The chancellor has already made clear that tax cuts will not be announced in the autumn statement.
National debt £2,590,000,000,000
The total amount the UK government owes is called the national debt and it is currently about £2.59 trillion – £2,590,000,000,000.
The government borrows money by selling financial products called bonds. A bond is a promise to pay money in the future. Most require the borrower to make regular interest payments over the bond’s lifetime.
UK government bonds – known as ‘gilts’ – are normally considered very safe, with little risk the money will not be repaid. Gilts are mainly bought by financial institutions in the UK and abroad, such as pension funds, investment funds, banks and insurance companies.
QE
The Bank of England (BoE) has also bought hundreds of billions of pounds’ worth of government bonds in the past to support the economy, through a process called quantitative easing or QE.
A higher rate of interest on government debt will mean the chancellor will have to set aside more cash, to the tune of £23 billion to meet interest payments to the owners of bonds. This in-turn means the UK government may choose to spend less money on public services like healthcare and schools at a time when workers in key industries are demanding pay rises to match the cost of living.
Double debt
The current level of debt is more than double what was seen from the 1980s through to the financial crisis of 2008. The combination of the financial crash in 2007/8 and the Covid pandemic pushed the UK’s debt up from those historic lows to where it stands now. However, in relation to the size of the economy, today’s debt is still low compared with much of the last century.
UK debt £2,590,000,000,000
The U.S, German and Italian borrowing costs also hit their highest levels for more than a decade as markets adjusted to the prospect of a long period of high interest rates and the need for governments around the world to borrow.
It follows an indication from global central banks, including the United States Federal Reserve and the Bank of England (BoE), that interest rates will stay ‘higher for longer’ to continue their jobs of bringing down inflation.
£111billion on debt interest in a year
During the last financial year, the government spent £111 billion on debt interest – more than it spent on education. Some economists fear the government is borrowing too much, at too great a cost. Others argue extra borrowing helps the economy grow faster – generating more tax revenue in the long run.
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), has warned that public debt could soar as the population ages and tax income falls. In an ageing population, the proportion of people of working age drops, meaning the government takes less in tax while paying out more in pensions, welfare and healthcare services.
Services output was the main contributor to growth in August 2023, adding 0.4% on the month to offset a fall in production output of 0.7% and a decline in construction output by 0.5%.
This data shows early signs of a cooldown in the labour market and thus, lower inflation further down the economic road.
Bank outlook
The data and outlook for the Bank of England (BoE) suggests that Bank rate increases do not have much upside from here and will most likely remain at current levels, but for a longer period.
The UK economy returning to growth in August 2023 has re-kindled expectations that interest rates will be left unchanged again in Novemeber 2023.
The economy grew marginally by 0.2% in August following a sharp fall in July 2023.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is an international organization that monitors the health of the global economy and provides financial assistance to countries in need.
UK interest rate warning from the IMF
The IMF has warned that the UK faces another five years of high interest rates to stem rising prices, which have been falling but remain stubbornly above target.
The IMF expects the UK to have the highest inflation and slowest growth next year of any G7 economies, which includes the US, France, Germany, Canada, Italy and Japan.
The IMF says the UK’s immediate prospects are being weighed down by the need to keep interest rates high to control inflation, which is partly caused by the terms-of-trade shock from high energy prices, the aftereffects of the global pandemic, Brexit fallout and the Russia/Ukraine war.
Peak at 6%!
The IMF believes Bank of England rates will peak at 6% and stay around 5% until 2028. Rates are currently 5.25%.
Utterly shocking eye watering covid fraud related losses incurred through government incompetence.
The UK covid fraud amount is not a single figure, but rather a sum of various losses due to fraud and error across different government schemes and programmes.
List of government failures and waste
£21bn of public money lost in fraud since COVID pandemic began and most will never be recovered.
£34.5m stolen in pandemic scams by more than 6,000 cases of Covid-related fraud and cyber-crime.
£16bn lost due to fraud and error in Covid loans schemes.
£4.5bn in Covid-19 support lost to error and fraud since 2020.
Breathtaking incompetence
These figures are based on the reports and audits by the National Audit Office, the Action Fraud team, the HMRC, and other sources. However, they may not reflect the full extent of the problem, as some fraud cases may not be reported or detected.
The UK government has taken some measures to tackle fraud and recover the losses, such as creating the Public Sector Fraud Authority, the taxpayer protection taskforce, and the Dedicated Card and Payment Crime Unit.
The incompetence shown by the UK government is utterly breathtaking.
The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 7.72% on Tuesday 3rd October 2023, according to latest data
Mortgage rates follow loosely the yield on the 10-year Treasury, which has been climbing this week following strong economic data. Rates have not been this high since the end of 2000.
At the beginning of this year, the 30-year fixed rate dropped mortgage to around 6%, creating a short-lived burst of activity in the spring 2023. But it began rising steadily again over the summer months, causing sales to drop, despite strong demand. The current trend appears to be even higher, with the possibility of rates reaching over 8%.
U.S. mortgage rates, which are close to 8% according to some sources. This is a very high level compared to the recent years, and it may have significant implications for the housing market and the economy.
Main points
Some experts believe that rates could reach 8% later by the end of October, and possibly stay at that level for the remainder of the year. Others, however, think that rates may stabilize or decline slightly if the economic growth slows down or inflation eases.
30 year fixed mortgage rate at 7.72%
The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 7.72% as of Oct. 3, according to Mortgage News Daily. This is the highest rate since 2000.
Rates are rising as more economic indicators point to a strong U.S. economy, which increases the likelihood of the Federal Reserve to hike rates further. The 10-year Treasury yield, which closely tracks the mortgage rates, reached 4.8% on Tuesday, the highest level since August 2007.
Hitting 8% will be like crossing a psychological barrier for many buyers, as it will increase their monthly payments and reduce their affordability. It may also dampen the demand for housing, which has already been affected by low inventory and high prices.
Some buyers are already seeing 8% mortgage rates, especially those who have high loan-to-value ratios, high balance-conforming loans, or non-qualified mortgage loans. These could also be borrowers with lower credit scores or non-prime borrowers.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) performance on 3rd October 2023.
The Dow fell more than 400 points, turning negative for the year. The main reason for the drop was the surge in U.S. Treasury yields, which reached their highest levels in 16 years.
Higher yields mean higher borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, which could hurt the economic recovery and the housing market.
S&P 500 on 3rd October 2023
Nasdaq on 3rd October 2023
The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained a 0.7% on October 3rd, 2023, as some investors saw an opportunity to buy some of the high-growth stocks that had been under pressure recently.
The stock market has been experiencing some volatility and uncertainty in September and October 2023, as investors fret about inflation, interest rates, and the possibility of a U.S. recession.
Main facts affecting the current stock market
The month of October has produced some severe stock market crashes over the past century, such as the Bank Panic of 1907, the Wall Street Crash of 1929, and Black Monday 1987.
October has also marked the start of several major long-term stock market rallies, such as Black Monday itself and the 2002 nadir of the Nasdaq-100 after the bursting of the dot-com bubble.
The S&P 500 dropped 4.5% in September 2023 and finished the third quarter in the red.
The U.S. Treasury yield curve has been inverted for months – which is a historically strong recession indicator.
The Fed maintained interest rates at the current target range of between 5.25% and 5.5% in September 2023, but signalled that it may need to raise rates again to combat inflation.
The consumer price index gained 3.7% year-over-year in August 2023, down from peak inflation levels of 9.1% in June 2022 but still well above the Fed’s 2% long-term target.
The bond market is currently pricing in an 81.7% chance the Fed will choose not to raise rates again on 1st November 2023.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down at 33002, Tuesday 3rd October 2023.
Stocks fell as investors pulled money from equities and moved it to the hot bond market.
International markets also faced significant turmoil, sending mini shockwaves through global financial centres, which reverberated in equities.
The dollar rose to the highest since December and is heading towards the twelfth positive week in a row.
Uncertainty
Uncertainty in the U.S. political system is having a major affect too. Especially with the ousting of the speaker and the real fear of a government shutdown looming large.
The U.S. Treasury yields are the interest rates that the U.S. government pays to borrow money. The 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields are the most widely followed indicators of the long-term health of the U.S. economy and the expectations of inflation and growth.
10 year yield at 4.80%
According to the latest data, the 10-year Treasury yield surged to 4.80% on Tuesday, 3rd October 2023, which is the highest level since 12th October 2007.
30 year yield at 4.79
The 30-year Treasury yield rose to 4.79% on Monday, 2nd October 2023, which is the highest since 6th April 2010.
The main reasons for the rise in the Treasury yields
The strong U.S. economic data that showed that the labour market remains hot and the manufacturing sector rebounded in September 2023.
The Federal Reserve’s ‘higher for longer’ mantra signalled that the central bank would keep raising rates until inflation is under control.
The reduced demand for safe-haven assets as the U.S. government averted a shutdown over the weekend by passing a short-term stopgap funding measure.
Uncertainty at the heart of the U.S. political system.
The implications of higher Treasury yields
The higher borrowing costs could weigh on the economic growth and consumer spending in the future.
Higher inflation expectations could erode the purchasing power of the fixed-income investors and increase the risk of a bond market sell-off.
The higher interest rate differential could attract more foreign capital inflows into the U.S. dollar and strengthen its value against other currencies.
It has been suggested Rishi Sunak and Boris Johnson have overseen biggest tax rises since the Second World War
‘Fiscal responsibility’ – code words for ‘cock-up!’
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak have stressed the need for ‘fiscal responsibility’ amid still-high inflation and rising debt costs.
According to the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), by the time of the next general election, taxes will likely have risen to around 37% of national income, which is the highest level since comparable records began in the 1950’s.
The IFS said that this is equivalent to around £3,500 more per household, but it will not be shared equally across income group.
Health and Welfare massive tax burden
The IFS also said that this is not a direct consequence of the pandemic, but rather a result of decisions to increase government spending on health and welfare, and some unwinding of austerity. They predicted that this parliament would mark a decisive and permanent shift to a higher-tax economy.
Other think tanks, such as the Nuffield Foundation, have echoed this view and said that there will be strong pressure in future parliaments to raise taxes further to meet growing demand for public services.
Dissatisfied
Some Conservative MPs have expressed their dissatisfaction with the lack of tax cuts from the government, as they believe that reducing taxes is a key part of the party’s philosophy. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak have stressed the need for fiscal responsibility amid still-high inflation and rising debt costs.
Lurching from one problem to the next
We saw this type of response under George Osborne during the ‘austerity’ period after the financial crisis of 2008. And now again, after Brexit and the pandemic. They were all Conservative governments.
Hunt has reportedly said it would be virtually impossible to cut taxes at the moment – no surprise there then!
Labour has criticised the government for clobbering the general public with tax rises and failing to deliver growth and wages.
Luddites were a group of workers who protested against the use of machinery that threatened their livelihoods in the early 19th century in Britain. They were not opposed to technology in general, but to the specific machines that were ‘taking away their livelihoods’.
They attacked factories and smashed machines that were replacing their jobs with cheaper and less skilled labour.
BIG tech Luddite comparison – is AI the latest threat?
Some people have compared the Luddites to the modern movements that resist the effects of Big Tech and artificial intelligence (AI) on workers’ lives. They argue that these technologies are creating a new wave of automation that is displacing workers, eroding their rights, and increasing inequality.
They also point out that the Luddites had the support of a majority of English people and eventually led to changes in the law that improved workers’ conditions.
Progress?
However, others have criticized this comparison as inaccurate or misleading. They claim that the Luddites were not successful in stopping technological progress, and that their actions were violent and destructive.
Technology will create new jobs
They also suggest that the Luddite fallacy, which refers to the belief that technological progress causes mass unemployment, has been proven wrong by history. They contend that technology can create new opportunities and benefits for workers, as long as society adapts and regulates it properly.
The question of whether a new modern Luddite rebellion can rise against Big Tech is not a simple one. It depends on how we define Luddites, how we evaluate the impacts of technology, and how we respond to the challenges and opportunities it presents.
The Rosebank oil and gas field is a controversial project that has been approved by the UK government despite the concerns of environmental activists and some politicians.
It is located about 80 miles west of Shetland in the North Sea and is estimated to contain 500 million barrels of oil. It is operated by Equinor, a Norwegian state-owned energy company, with its partners Ithaca Energy and Suncor Energy. The development of the field is expected to cost £6 billion and create 2,000 jobs.
Carbon conflict
It is also expected to produce 200 million tonnes of carbon dioxide over its lifetime, which is equivalent to the annual emissions of 40 million cars.
The approval of the Rosebank field has sparked a debate over the role of fossil fuels in the UK’s energy transition and its commitment to net zero emissions by 2050. Critics argue that the project is incompatible with the UK’s climate goals and that it will undermine its credibility. They also claim that most of the cost of the development will be borne by the taxpayers through tax reliefs and subsidies.
UK not yet ready to turn off the oil and gas
However, some supporters of the project contend that it will provide a reliable source of energy and revenue for the UK, as well as support thousands of jobs in the oil and gas sector. They also point out that the UK still relies on fossil fuels for most of its energy needs and that it will need to import more oil and gas from abroad if it does not develop its own resources.
‘Didn’t expect to see you here again, thought you’d retired’. ‘Yeah, me too!’
They argue that the Rosebank field will be developed with high environmental standards and that it will contribute to the UK’s transition to a low-carbon economy by investing in renewable energy and carbon capture technologies.
Contentious
The Rosebank oil and gas field is a complex and contentious issue that reflects the challenges and trade-offs involved in balancing economic growth, energy security, and environmental protection. It is likely to remain a topic of heated discussion.
The field is expected to start producing oil from 2026
If drilling starts on time, Rosebank could account for 8% of the UK’s total oil production between 2026 and 2030.
Roughly 245 million barrels will be produced in the first five years of drilling, with the remaining being extracted between 2032 and 2051.
Though oil is the main product, the site will also produce gas.
About 1,600 jobs are expected to be created during the peak of construction. Long term, the operation will create 450 jobs.
Will it mean lower energy bills in the UK?
No! Oil and gas from UK waters is not necessarily used here – it is sold to the highest bidder on global markets.
What Rosebank produces will be sold at world market prices, so the project will not cut energy prices for UK consumers.
The Norwegian state oil company Equinor – which is the majority owner of Rosebank – has confirmed this.
Oil also tends to be sent around the world to be refined – the UK does not have the capacity to refine all its own oil-based products.
