Category: Politica

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Ireland’s 13-billion-euro Apple windfall

Apple

Ireland stands to gain a substantial financial boost following a pivotal ruling by the European Union’s highest court, which requires Apple to pay €13 billion (around $14 billion) in back taxes. Initially resisted by Dublin, this windfall is now seen as a transformative chance for the nation.

The settlement’s roots trace back to 2016 when the European Commission deemed that Apple had received illegal state aid via favorable tax deals with Ireland. After prolonged legal disputes, the EU court’s verdict has concluded the issue, mandating Apple to settle the substantial amount.

The Irish government has devised a strategic plan to capitalise on this unforeseen fiscal advantage. The funds are designated for various key sectors to promote sustained economic growth and societal welfare. A considerable portion is allocated for infrastructure enhancements, including transport network upgrades and sustainable energy initiatives, in line with Ireland’s green economy transition goals.

The windfall will also bolster progress in healthcare and education. Plans are in place to improve healthcare facilities and services, enhancing access and care quality for residents. In education, investments will focus on updating educational institutions, fostering research and innovation, and preparing the workforce with future-oriented skills.

The financial influx also presents a chance to tackle housing deficits, with investments directed towards boosting affordable housing availability and ameliorating living standards nationwide. This comprehensive strategy aims to forge a more equitable and thriving society.

In essence, Ireland’s $14 billion windfall from Apple offers an exceptional opportunity to effectuate considerable improvements across diverse sectors, potentially reshaping the country’s economic and social fabric for generations.

It’s quite remarkable how a fortune from just ONE company can be utterly transformational for an entire country.

As of September 2024, Apple’s market cap sat at around $3.4 trillion. This makes Apple the most valuable company in the world by market cap.

As of September 2024, Apple’s market cap sat at around $3.4 trillion. This makes Apple the most valuable company in the world by market cap.

Just so you know, 14 billion of 3.4 trillion equals about 0.41%. A small drop in a massive financial ocean.

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Chinese stocks up sharply after Beijing confirms stimulus measures

China stocks up

Chinese stocks continued to rise following state media reports that China’s top leaders have endorsed the government’s recent measures to bolster their economy.

The CSI 300 index in Mainland China continued its rally for a seventh consecutive day, reaching its highest point in about four months, subsequent to a meeting of China’s highest officials confirming the government’s latest economic stimulus actions.

South Korea’s Kospi index surged by 1.9%, driven by advances in semiconductor company SK Hynix, which declared the commencement of mass production of the world’s inaugural 12-layer HBM3E chip, utilised in AI applications.

See SK Hynix Newsroom report here

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UK says data centres are critical infrastructure and are designated as important as the power grid and the NHS

Critical data centres UK

UK data centres are set to be classified as critical national infrastructure (CNI), aligning them with sectors such as emergency services, finance, healthcare, and utilities

This classification will ensure they receive additional government support during major incidents like cyber-attacks, IT outages, or severe weather, to reduce disruption.

Data centres, large warehouses filled with extensive computer banks, are the backbone of services like AI applications, data processing, and streaming. Despite facing criticism for their energy and water usage, the new Labour government supports the industry, with Technology Secretary Peter Kyle referring to data centres as ‘the engines of modern life.’

Currently, the UK recognises 13 sectors as critical national infrastructure, a list last revised nine years ago with the addition of space and defence.

The 13 Critical National Infrastructure Sectors

  1. Chemicals
  2. Civil Nuclear
  3. Communications
  4. Defence
  5. Emergency Services
  6. Energy
  7. Finance
  8. Food
  9. Government
  10. Health
  11. Space
  12. Transport
  13. Water

British Technology Minister Peter Kyle announced on Thursday 12th September 2024 that UK data centres will be designated as ‘Critical National Infrastructure’ (CNI). This status, typically reserved for essential national sectors like nuclear power, provides data centre operators with a direct communication channel to the government for threat preparation and response.

Furthermore, the government has expressed support for a proposed £3.75 billion data centre by UK company DC01UK in Hertfordshire, England, which is projected to be the largest in Europe upon completion.

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U.S. introduces new microchip-related export controls

U.S. chip rules

The Biden administration is reportedly implementing new export controls on essential technologies, such as quantum computing and semiconductor materials, in response to China’s progress in the global chip market

These controls encompass quantum computers and their components, sophisticated chipmaking tools, semiconductor technologies, certain metal and metal alloy components and software, and high-bandwidth chips, which are vital for AI applications.

While the U.S. intensifies its measures to curb China’s expansion, there is noticeable hesitancy within the global industry.

The U.S. Department of Commerce issued new regulations on Friday, 6th September 2024, encompassing quantum computers and their components, sophisticated chipmaking tools, certain metal and metal alloy components and software, as well as high-bandwidth chips, which are vital for AI applications.

See report details here

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U.S. jobs data revision creates economic concern and political argument

U.S> jobs data revision

Job growth in the US last year was weaker than previously believed, according to a statement from the Labor Department on Wednesday 21st August 2024.

This revelation has intensified the ongoing debate regarding the health of the U.S. economy. The department’s updated figures indicate that there were approximately 818,000 fewer jobs added over the 12 months leading up to March than initially estimated.

This preliminary revision suggests a 30% decrease in the total number of jobs created during that period, marking the most significant adjustment since 2009.

The revised data points to an average monthly job increase of about 174,000, a reduction from the previously estimated 240,000.

Downward revisions affected most sectors, including information, media, technology, retail, manufacturing, and the broad category of professional and business services.

Analysis by Oxford Economics noted that this indicates the job growth for the period relied more heavily on government and education/healthcare sectors than previously understood.

Despite the revisions, hiring remained robust, albeit not at levels sufficient to match the growth of the working-age population.

The U.S. Labor Department issues monthly job creation estimates based on employer surveys and regularly updates these figures as more data becomes available, with an annual reset at the beginning of each year.

The report from Wednesday offered a glimpse into this process, incorporating data from county-level unemployment insurance tax records. This year’s revision is notably larger than those of previous years.

The Biden administration has highlighted strong job growth as evidence that its policies have positioned the U.S. as the world’s leading economy post-pandemic.

However, Republicans have used the latest figures to contend that the Democrats have misled the public about the economic situation. The Republican Party took to social media to announce: “BREAKING: 818,000 jobs that the Biden-Harris administration claimed to have ‘created’ do not actually exist.”

Over the past year, the U.S. has consistently reported robust job growth, defying both economists’ expectations and public sentiment. These gains have been particularly surprising given the highest borrowing costs in a generation, which typically hinder economic growth.

The recent revisions have lent weight to the argument that the labour market is less stable than previously thought, as highlighted by the Republican response.

Analysts believe these new figures will reinforce the case for the U.S. Federal Reserve to lower interest rates at its upcoming September 2024 meeting, a move that is widely anticipated to prevent further weakening of the job market.

These revisions have not caused widespread concern

Despite earlier economic anxieties this month, financial markets have largely absorbed the latest data without significant turmoil.

But that doesn’t mean there will be zero fallout – turmoil may follow. The data believed to be correct is incorrect – so, can we believe the data? Are there cracks appearing in the U.S labour market?

This data helped the U.S. economy – but it wasn’t right?

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Is the Fed fighting its own shadow?

Shadow boxing

Has the Fed over-cooked it this time by waiting too long to reduce interest rates?

U.S. stock markets threw a wobbly after the latest employment data and after the Fed delayed its first rate cut… again. September 2024 now looks likely for that first cut – but by how much: 0.25% or as high as 0.50%?

The latest batch of bad news for the U.S. economy has actually became bad news for stocks this time. For too long the ‘bad news’ has been taken as ‘good news’, especially regarding the likelihood of a Fed interest rate cut – and for the markets in general.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is grappling with several challenges, including inflation, interest rates, and the broader U.S. and global economies.

Inflation

The Fed has been trying to control high inflation rates, which have been a significant concern. To combat inflation, the Fed has raised interest rates multiple times. Higher interest rates can help reduce inflation by slowing down borrowing and spending, but they can also slow economic growth.

Interest rates

By increasing interest rates, the Fed aims to make borrowing more expensive, which can help cool down an overheated economy. However, this can also lead to higher costs for consumers and businesses, potentially leading to reduced investment and spending.

Economic growth

The Fed’s policies are a balancing act. While they aim to control inflation, they also need to ensure that the economy doesn’t slow down too much. This balancing act can be challenging, especially when external factors like global economic conditions and geopolitical events come into play.

In essence, the Fed’s efforts to manage these issues can sometimes feel like ‘fighting its own shadow,’ as the consequences of their actions can create new challenges.

The timing of interest rate adjustments by the Federal Reserve is a topic of much debate among economists and policymakers.

Inflation control

The Fed’s primary goal in raising interest rates has been to control inflation. If inflation remains high, the Fed might be cautious about reducing rates too quickly to avoid a resurgence of inflation.

Economic indicators

The Fed closely monitors various economic indicators, such as employment rates, consumer spending, and GDP growth. If these indicators suggest that the economy is still strong, the Fed might delay reducing rates to ensure that inflation is fully under control.

Market reactions

Rapid changes in interest rates can cause volatility in financial markets. The Fed often aims for a gradual approach to avoid sudden shocks to the economy.

Global factors

The Fed also considers global economic conditions. For example, if other major economies are experiencing slow growth or financial instability, the Fed might be more cautious in adjusting rates.

Ultimately, the decision to reduce interest rates involves balancing the need to support economic growth with the risk of reigniting inflation. It’s a complex decision with significant implications for the U.S. and global economies.

Looks like the Fed overcooked it this time – but by how much?

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Which governments hold the most Bitcoin?

Bitcoin cartoon

U.S., UK and Germany hold more Bitcoin than you may think.

According to the Arkham website, the United States’ government holds some 212,847 BTC making it one of the biggest holders of Bitcoin, while the treasuries of the U.K. and Germany reportedly hold around 61,245 BTC and 49,858 BTC each. (These values alter daily).

In addition to Bitcoin, the U.S. government also holds around $200 million in other cryptocurrencies like Ether (ETH), as well as major stablecoins like USDC.

U.S. Bitcoin holding by current value according to Arkham

Data from Arkham (as of 12th July 2024)

Arkham, a crypto intelligence platform focused on deanonymizing entities on the blockchain network, has introduced a dashboard featuring the governments with the largest crypto holdings.

The U.K. government, reportedly ranked second, holds around $3.5 billion worth of Bitcoin at current valuations, according to Arkham’s data. The German government owns roughly $2.5 billion.

UK Bitcoin holding by current value according to Arkham

Data from Arkham (as of 12th July 2024)

Other world governments holding Bitcoin

China, Russia, Ukraine, El Salvador, Finland, Bhutan and many others.

In 2021, El Salvador became the first country to make Bitcoin legal tender and mandated all local businesses to accept payments in BTC. 

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Is the world shackled to debt?

World Debt

The world is in debt to the tune of $315 trillion, and counting.

$315,000,000,000,000

$315 trillion or $315,000,000,000,000 is a daunting number, it’s massive. In 2024, the global GDP reached just $109.5 trillion, just over a third of the global debt figure.

Perspective

To provide some perspective, with the world population at roughly 8.1 billion, if the debt were distributed evenly, each person would shoulder about $39,000 in debt.

As global debt reaches unprecedented levels, concerns naturally arise about its implications and origins.

Global debt

Global debt includes borrowings by households, businesses, and governments.

Household debt

Household debt, which many are familiar with, comprises mortgages, credit cards, and student loans. At the beginning of 2024, it stood at $59.1 trillion.

Corporate debt

Corporate debt, utilized by businesses for operations and growth, reached $164.5 trillion, with the financial sector contributing $70.4 trillion.

Government debt

Government debt, on the other hand, finances public services and projects without raising taxes. It can be obtained from other nations or institutions like the World Bank and the IMF, or through bond sales, which are essentially promises to pay with interest from the state to investors.

Public debt

Public debt was reported to be $91.4 trillion. While often perceived negatively, debt can be advantageous, supporting individuals in education and homeownership, aiding business expansion, and providing governments with means for economic development, social expenditures, or crisis management.

History

Historical evidence shows that public debt has been around for at least 2000 years, mainly for establishing settlements and financing wars, with governments accruing significant debts from conflicts such as the Napoleonic Wars.

Debt engulfs us all and is here to stay, but at what cost to society?

And who do we owe?

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An important rare Earth metal

Tungsten rare Earth metal

Tungsten is a critically important rare earth metal, renowned for its unique and valuable properties.

Tungsten has the highest melting point among all metals, which makes it exceptionally suitable for high-temperature applications.

Key aspects of its importance

Industrial and technological applications

Tungsten is used in many industries where hardness, high density, high wear resistance, and high-temperature resistance are required. This includes mining, construction, energy generation, electronics, aerospace, and defence sectors. It is used in weapons, autos, electric car batteries, semiconductors and industrial machinery.

Fact: approximately 2Kg of tungsten goes into every electric vehicle.

Alloys

Metals are frequently alloyed with Tungsten to enhance their strength without substantially adding to their weight. This property is vital for uses like arc-welding electrodes and heating elements in high-temperature furnaces.

Significance

Tungsten is acknowledged as a critical metal because of its economic significance and the scarcity of its sources. It is reported that China produces the majority of the world’s tungsten, controlling approximately 80% of the supply of this rare earth metal.

Durability and flexibility

Tungsten’s durability, flexibility, and resistance to corrosion contribute to its popularity across various industries and applications. It ranks among the hardest and most resilient materials found in nature.

These characteristics render tungsten not just crucial but also indispensable for numerous high-tech applications. The rarity of tungsten and the intricate nature of its extraction and refinement processes enhance its value even further.

World suppliers of tungsten

According to Statista.com the global tungsten market was valued at over $5 billion USD in 2022. It’s projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting it could reach over $9.5 billion USD by 2030

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Chinese auto sales overtake U.S. for the first time

EV competition

For the first time, automotive companies in China surpassed their U.S. counterparts in car sales last year, driven by BYD and expansion in emerging markets, according to a data released Thursday 13th July 2024.

Chinese brands such as BYD now at the forefront, reportedly sold 13.4 million new vehicles last year. In comparison, American brands sold approximately 11.9 million units. Japanese brands remained at the top with 23.59 million sales.

China’s sales growth rate surpassed that of the U.S., with a 23% rise from the previous year compared to the U.S.’s 9% increase.

The consistent high pricing by legacy automakers has inadvertently steered consumers towards more affordable Chinese alternatives.

No surprise here then as manufacturers milked profits from legacy lineups!

Tariffs have now been introduced on China to curb their automakers runaway success.

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The EU imposes higher tariffs of up to 38% on Chinese EVs

EU and EV's

In a significant development that may affect the electric vehicle (EV) market, the European Union (EU) has tentatively agreed to levy tariffs on Chinese EV manufacturers.

This decision reportedly follows an inquiry into the surge of inexpensive, government-subsidized Chinese vehicles entering the EU market.

From 4th July 2024, Chinese EV producers who participated in the investigation will incur an average duty of 21%, while those who did not will face a substantial 38.1% tariff. Specific rates will be imposed on firms such as BYD, Geely, and SAIC.

Additionally, non-Chinese automobile companies manufacturing some EVs in China, including those based in the EU like BMW, will also be impacted. Tesla might receive a specially calculated duty rate upon request.

These levies are on top of the current 10% tariff on all electric cars manufactured in China. The EU’s action comes after the United States’ drastic measure last month to increase its tariff on Chinese electric cars from 25% to 100%.

Some critics view this anti-subsidy probe as protectionist, potentially harming China-EU economic relations and the worldwide automotive production and supply chain. The German Transport Minister has reportedly cautioned about the possibility of a trade conflict with Beijing.

Although the tariffs are intended to shield the EU’s own industry, they highlight the challenges of maintaining a balance between free trade and competitiveness in the swiftly changing EV sector.

Unless a qualified majority of EU nations opposes it, the tariffs will become permanent in November 2024. The European car industry stresses the need for free and fair trade but recognizes that promoting the adoption of electric cars requires a diverse strategy.

As the dispute over tariffs persists, the repercussions for the EV market are yet to be determined.

One thing is for sure, the consumer will suffer through these tariffs and also through extra road tax levies yet to be introduced, especially in the UK.

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UK Prime Minister announces snap general election for 4th July 2024

UK election

On 22nd May 2024, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced a snap general election for 4th July 2024 This decision caught many by surprise, as the election was called more than around six months earlier than legally required.

Election Date: 4th July 2024 – let the fireworks begin

The Conservative Party, led by Rishi Sunak, is facing significant challenges in opinion polls, trailing behind the opposition Labour Party.

The economy, immigration, health services, and cost of living have been identified as key issues for voters.

Labour, led by Sir Keir Starmer, is considered the clear frontrunner, with a substantial lead in recent polls.

Since 2010, the Conservatives have seen five prime ministers: David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, and now Rishi Sunak.

Sir Keir described the past 14 years as “Tory chaos” and emphasised that it’s time for change.

So, the UK is gearing up for an early election, and the outcome will be closely watched both domestically and internationally

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Big tech companies pledge AI safety commitments

AI Kill Switch!

Leading technology companies, such as Microsoft, Amazon, and OpenAI, have united under a significant international accord for artificial intelligence (AI) safety measures, established at the Seoul AI Safety Summit on Tuesday 21st May 2024.

Following the agreement, firms from various nations, including the UK, China, Canada, the U.S., France, South Korea, and the United Arab Emirates, have pledged to voluntarily commit to the secure development of their cutting-edge AI models.

Framework

AI model developers who have not already done so agreed to issue safety frameworks that detail how they will address the challenges posed by their advanced models, including the prevention of technology misuse by malicious entities.

These frameworks will feature ‘red lines’ that tech companies will establish to delineate the types of risks associated with advanced AI systems that are deemed ‘unacceptable.’ These risks encompass, but are not limited to, automated cyberattacks and the potential for bioweapons.

Kill switch

In the event of such dire scenarios, companies have declared their intention to introduce a ‘kill switch’ that would halt the development of their AI models should they be unable to ensure the mitigation of these risks.

“It is unprecedented for so many prominent AI firms from diverse regions of the world to concur on identical commitments regarding AI safety,” Rishi Sunak, the UK Prime Minister reportedly said on Tuesday 21st May 2024.

He further noted that these commitments would guarantee that the world’s foremost AI companies will maintain transparency and accountability concerning their safe AI development strategies.

This agreement builds upon a prior set of pledges made in November 2023 by entities engaged in the creation of generative AI software.

The involved companies have consented to seek feedback on these standards from ‘trusted actors,’ which include their respective national governments when suitable, prior to their publication in anticipation of the forthcoming AI summit – the AI Action Summit scheduled to take place in France in early 2025.

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IMF warns U.S. and China trade divisions threaten a ‘reversal’ for global economy

U.S. & China trade tensions

Tensions between Washington and Beijing have intensified, with the U.S. ramping up trade restrictions and sanctions on China due to national security concerns.

Since Ukraine’s invasion, there has been a roughly 12% drop in trade between the blocs, and foreign direct investments have decreased by 20% compared to those within the bloc’s constituents.

If these divisions persist, the IMF forecasts that the economic impact on global GDP could be as high as 7% in the worst-case scenario.

A senior International Monetary Fund official cautioned on Tuesday, 7th May 2024, that the rift between the U.S. led Western and China-aligned economic blocs endangers global trade cooperation and economic growth.

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Recent U.S. data is indicating inflation is proving stubborn and isn’t going away anytime soon

Inflation has become a persistent challenge for the Fed

The battle against inflation persists, gradually impacting the U.S. economy and presenting substantial challenges for the Federal Reserve.

Despite concerted efforts to control it, inflation remains stubbornly remains, leaving policymakers in a dilemma – to stimulate economic growth or to curb spiraling prices.

Let the data speak

Recent data presents a concerning scenario. Indexes from the Commerce Department, used by the Federal Reserve as indicators of inflation, reveal that prices are rising at a rate significantly exceeding the central bank’s annual target of 2%. Consumer spending persists, encouraged by the excessive amount of money circulating in the financial system.

However, this spending spree isn’t sustainable, and consumers are dipping into their savings to fund purchases. The personal savings rate has plummeted to its lowest level since October 2022. Borrowing is up and debt is far too high!

The Federal Reserve’s primary inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures price index, rose to 2.7% in March, encompassing all items. The crucial core index, excluding the more volatile food and energy prices, remained constant at 2.8%. These figures highlight the ongoing inflationary pressures.

Fed’s dilemma

The Federal Reserve is navigating a precarious inflation situation. Should it shift towards rate reductions prematurely, there’s a risk that inflation might surge back in 2024. Conversely, persistent inflation could compel central bankers to not only sustain the present rates but also ponder additional increases. The aspiration for a gentle economic descent is at stake.

Outlook

Forecasters anticipate inflation to dip below 2.5% in 2024, yet challenges persist. The Federal Reserve faces the difficult task of steering the economy towards stability and controlling inflation expectations. With the central bank’s policy meeting on the horizon, speculation abounds regarding their forthcoming strategy.

Will they maintain the current interest rates or implement more assertive measures? Their decision is set to influence the economic outlook for the foreseeable future.

Conclusion

U.S. inflation continues to be a persistent challenge, and the Federal Reserve’s efforts are ongoing. The path forward demands cautious steering, as policymakers must achieve a fine equilibrium to sustain economic stability while simultaneously curbing inflation.

And remember, the Fed said inflation was ‘transitory’.

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Does extreme flooding pose a threat to UK food security?

UK floods

Record-breaking rain has inundated the United Kingdom over the past few months, leaving fields submerged and livestock at risk.

The relentless downpours, likely exacerbated by climate change, are now threatening the very foundation of UK food production.

Challenges faced by farmers

UK farmers are facing the repercussions of extreme weather events. Fields that would normally be abundant with crops are currently waterlogged, making them barren. Livestock are also suffering, unable to graze in the inundated fields, leading to a shortage of feed. The circumstances are critical, prompting the National Farmers Union (NFU) to raise the alarm.

NFU’s concerns and calls for action

The NFU emphasizes that climate change-induced flooding imperils food security. Rachel Hallos, NFU vice president, warns that these extreme conditions could become the norm. Urgent action is needed to safeguard our agricultural systems.

  • Compensation and Support: The NFU urges the government to provide more substantial compensation to flooded farmers. The recently launched Farm Recovery Fund offers grants, but broader and longer-term assistance is essential.
  • Reduced Crop Output: Weeks of incessant rain have already impacted this year’s harvest. Crop quality may suffer, affecting both farmers and consumers.
  • Resilience and Adaptation: We cannot rely solely on imports. A clear government plan is necessary to prepare for the potential effect of extreme weather, adapt to its effects, and ensure continued food production.

Voices from the fields – case study example

A recent report from a mixed dairy, beef, and arable farmer in Gloucester whose land lies in the floodplain reportedly said that floods occurred every six years, but now they occur with alarming frequency. Cattle, unable to graze, face dwindling feed supplies. Livelihoods hang in the balance.

The farmer went on to say, ‘climate change affects us all. It threatens our food supply and prices. We must think about resilience and feeding the world amidst a changing climate.’

Conclusion

Extreme flooding transcends a natural disaster; it poses a threat to our very sustenance. In the face of such challenges in the UK, it is imperative that farmers, policymakers, and communities collaborate.

Prompt action is essential to safeguard our food security and foster resilience for the future.

Building and farming on low-lying land, often on floodplains, is likely a big part of the problem, along with the potential effects of the ever-changing climate and weather patterns.

Safety valve

Low lying land has always flooded – isn’t it natures safety valve? We cohabit with nature and low-lying land, as good as it is for farming (and building), will always flood – as it has for thousands of years.

But we do need to do more to protect our food production in the UK.

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Does the U.S. jobs boom raise doubts about rate cuts?

U.S. job creation vs inflation and interest rates

The U.S. economy is on a rip, with employers adding around 303,000 jobs in March 2024 – the largest increase in almost a year.

As the world’s largest economy continues to surge, questions arise about the Federal Reserve’s next move regarding interest rates.

Stronger-than-expected Job Growth

The unemployment rate fell to 3.8%, indicating strong job growth in several sectors such as health care, construction, and government. While economists had predicted job gains of approximately 200,000, the actual numbers have easily exceeded those expectations.

The labour market’s surprising resilience has caught analysts off guard, leading to speculation about the timing of interest rate cuts.

Fed’s Dilemma

The Federal Reserve has held interest rates in a range of 5.25%-5.5%, the highest level in over two decades. Initially, the Fed raised rates sharply in 2022 to curb inflationary pressures. However, the subsequent cooling of price inflation (down to 3.2% in February) without a significant spike in unemployment has complicated matters. The central bank now faces a delicate balancing act.

Delayed Rate Cuts?

The significant increase of 303,000 in non-farm payrolls for March 2024 reinforces the Federal Reserve’s stance that the robustness of the economy permits a gradual approach to interest rate reductions.

The Fed had been expected to initiate rate cuts this year to mitigate the impact of high borrowing costs. However, the stronger-than-anticipated economic performance suggests that rate cuts may not occur until the second half of this year.

Labour Market Dynamics

U.S. government spending in areas like high-tech manufacturing and infrastructure has bolstered the labor market. Additionally, an influx of more than three million immigrants last year has expanded the workforce, potentially keeping wage pressures in check. In March, average hourly pay rose by 4.1% year-on-year, consistent with expectations and near a three-year low.

America’s Comeback

President Joe Biden hailed the latest job figures as a “milestone in America’s comeback.” However, some market analysts argue that the strong jobs growth could complicate efforts to return inflation to the Fed’s 2% target. Some analysts even speculate that rate cuts may not materialize until 2025.

Global Implications

Higher U.S. interest rates have ripple effects worldwide, enticing investors to shift capital toward America. While the Fed’s in-tray still has some warnings, the delay in rate cuts reflects the economy’s underlying strength.

The U.S. jobs boom presents a conundrum for policymakers. Balancing economic vitality with inflation control remains a delicate task, and the Fed’s decisions will reverberate far beyond its borders.

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The unexpected global gas glut

Gas

The world’s energy landscape is experiencing an unexpected twist: an oversupply of natural gas.

As economies grapple with the aftermath of the pandemic, the gas market finds itself in a paradoxical situation.

The Glut Unveiled

  • Abundant Supply: The global gas glut stems from a surge in production. Countries like the United States, Russia, and Qatar have ramped up their natural gas output, flooding the market.
  • LNG Boom: Liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects have proliferated, adding to the surplus. New terminals and pipelines facilitate the movement of LNG across continents.

Demand Dilemma

  • Warmer Winters: Milder winters in key consuming regions such as Europe, the U.S., and Asia, have suppressed demand for heating. Gas storage facilities are brimming, leaving suppliers with excess inventory.
  • Geopolitical Tensions: Europe’s reliance on Russian gas has prompted diversification efforts. LNG imports from the United States, Australia, and other sources provide an alternative. However, the North Sea’s production limitations persist.

Price Plunge

  • Price Disparities: While wholesale gas prices in Europe and Asia have tumbled, mainland Europe still faces higher prices due to supply constraints. The U.S. market, despite its glut, operates differently.
  • Investment Paradox: Ironically, this glut coincides with record investments in LNG infrastructure. The mismatch between supply growth and demand dynamics baffles analysts.

Environmental Implications

  • Balancing Act: As gas prices dip, affordability improves for consumers. However, environmental concerns remain. Natural gas, though cleaner than coal, still contributes to greenhouse gas emissions.
  • Policy Challenges: Policymakers must navigate this delicate balance—ensuring energy security while transitioning to cleaner alternatives.

Conclusion

The global gas glut is a paradox: abundant supply alongside record investments. As we navigate this downward super cycle, energy markets remain unpredictable and interconnected globally.

Remember, while gas prices dip, the implications for our planet and energy policies are far-reaching. It’s a delicate balance between affordability and sustainability.

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New guidelines from China reportedly blocks U.S. chips in government computers

U.S. China trade microchip trade battle

China has reportedly prohibited the use of U.S. processors from both AMD and Intel in government computers and servers. The directive is designed to encourage the use of domestic alternatives.

Chinese government agencies are now required to choose ‘safe and reliable’ domestic alternatives for these chips. The sanctioned list features processors from Huawei and the state supported firm Phytium, both of which face bans in the U.S.

In addition to processors, China is now also restricting Microsoft Windows on government devices, opting instead for domestically produced operating systems.

These guidelines are part of a broader tech trade battles between China and the U.S. While the impact on Intel and AMD remains to be seen, it’s clear that China is taking aggressive steps to reduce reliance on U.S. built technology.

The global tech landscape continues to evolve, and these decisions have far-reaching implications for both countries and the industry as a whole.

U.S. and China trade tensions are unlikely to recede anytime soon.

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Powell says the Fed is not ready to start cutting interest rates yet

U.S. interest rates

In his Capitol Hill testimony on 6th March 2024, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that was not yet time to begin cutting interest rates.

To fight inflation, which reached a rate of 9% in the summer of 2022, the central bank has significantly increased interest rates in recent times. However, prices are still stubborn, especially for things like housing and groceries.

Due to the robust economic performance in early 2024, the expected reduction in interest rates has been postponed. Instead of taking place this month, the rate cuts are now more probable in May or June 2024.

Powell reportedly said: ‘The Committee does not expect that it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.’

He reiterated the pledge to lower inflation to the 2% target and keep long-term inflation expectations stable.

UPDATE

On Thursday 7th March 2024 Powell also said: the Fed is ‘not far’ from the point of cutting interest rates

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Bank of England holds interest rate at 5.25%

BoE

UK interest rates have been left unchanged at 5.25% by the Bank of England as widely expected by commentators.

It is the fourth time in a row the Bank has held rates at 5.25%.

The Bank of England had previously raised rates 14 times in a row to curb inflation, leading to increases in mortgage rates but also creating better rates for savers.

Interest rate chart from 2007 to January 2024 demonstrates just how low interest were between 2009 and 2022

Interest rate chart from 2007 to January 2024 demonstrates just how low interest were between 2009 and 2022

Attitude shift

There is a noticeable shift in opinion as the committee entertained the possibility of discussing the feasibility of cuts.

There was a three-way split, with two members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voting to increase the bank rate to 5.5%; one to reduce it to 5%; and six were in favour of sticking with 5.25%.

With inflation falling it is very likely the interest rates will be reduced by 0.25% by March 2024. Just take a look at the reduction in savers rates that have already occurred.

The anticipation is for a rate reduction soon.

The clue is that savers rates are being cut.

But

The Bank of England Governor, Andrew Bailey, has made clear that for him the key question is: ‘For how long should we keep rates at the current level?’

There may be disappointment ahead then – but a rate cut is next and I still expect it by Easter.

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Turkey hikes interest rate to 45% after inflation touches 65%

Turkey inflation high

Turkey’s central bank on Thursday 25th January 2024 hiked its key interest rate to 45%.

It comes amid an ongoing struggle against double-digit inflation for Turkey’s policymakers, with the rate hike the latest step in that ongoing fight.

30 Turkish Lira to 1 U.S. dollar

Inflation in Turkey increased nearly 65% year-on-year in December 2023, up from 62% in November, and the country’s currency, the lira, hit a new record low against the U.S. dollar earlier in January 2024 at 30 Lira to $1.

Analysts predict this will be the last hike for some time, especially with local elections approaching in March 2024

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Polluting coal users and renewable producers

Coal fired power

The highest coal using countries in the world

  • China, which consumes over half of the global coal demand and produces over 4 billion tonnes of coal per year.
  • India, which consumes about 14% of the global coal demand and produces over 900 million tonnes of coal per year.
  • The United States, which consumes about 9% of the global coal demand and produces over 600 million tonnes of coal per year.
  • Japan, which consumes about 3% of the global coal demand but imports most of its coal.

These countries accounted for about 82% of the global coal production in 2021 according to 2021 data set. China alone produced more than half of the world’s coal, followed by India with nearly 10%.

Global coal use in 2023 hits few high

Global coal use in 2023 has hit a record high, surpassing 8.5 billion tons for the first time, on the back of strong demand in countries like India and China, said IEA. These countries are the world’s largest consumers of the dirtiest fossil fuel, and continued modernization puts their energy consumption on a rapid growth trajectory.

China

China and India’s growing economies will continue to fuel demand for coal even as they set ambitious renewable energy targets, according to experts.

While China is the world’s largest energy consumer, India is ranked third globally, and both countries are the top consumers of coal as they strive to fuel economic growth. 

China’s share of global electricity consumption, 60% of which is coal, is set to jump to one-third by 2025, compared with a quarter in 2015, according to projections by energy watchdog International Energy Agency (IEA).

Global coal usage in 2023 hit a record high, surpassing 8.5 billion tons for the first time, on the back of strong demand in emerging and developing countries such as India and China, IEA noted in a recent report. 

China’s electricity sector has been in the throes of a clean revolution over the past few years, with an almost five-fold growth in wind and solar generation since 2015. As a result, the share of coal generation has fallen by 17 percentage points, from 78% in 2000 to 61% in 2022. 

China has suffered from drought in recent years, which reduced hydroelectric power generation in its southern provinces. To maintain the necessary power output, the country had to turn to coal. 

United States

By contrast, U.S., which is the world’s second largest consumer of coal, has seen a decrease in its usage of the fuel. According to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, the amount of coal that the superpower consumes each day recorded a 62% drop from 2.8 million to 1.1 million tons a day.

75% of India’s power is derived via coal-fired plants. Coal accounts for 61% of China’s power generation, even though the country is recognized as the indisputable leader in renewable energy expansion. It has been adding new projects to the grid almost as fast as the rest of the world combined in 2022 and has ambitions of becoming carbon neutral by 2060.

Annual average capacity additions by country and region, 2016-2023

See IEA report

India’s coal production rose to 893 million tons during the financial year ending March 2023, jumping nearly 15% from a year earlier. China’s raw coal production in 2023 went up by 2.9% compared with the same period in 2022.

There are no signs of a slowdown, with the IEA saying coal consumption in India and Southeast Asia is projected to grow significantly.

Coal won’t go!

But the lack of reliability of renewables means coal has still very much been a critical fallback option for the two countries.

Top five coal producing countries in the world

  • China: 4,126.0 million tonnes
  • India: 762.0 million tonnes
  • Indonesia: 614.0 million tonnes
  • United States: 523.8 million tonnes
  • Australia: 467.1 million tonnes

Five of the Greenest energy producers in the world

  • Sweden
  • Norway
  • Denmark
  • Finland
  • Switzerland

The greenest were based on these five criteria: carbon emissions, energy transition, green society, clean innovation, and climate policy.

Top countries by renewable energy production

  • China: 2,271.9 TWh (28.2% of total electricity)
  • United States: 804.8 TWh (20.5% of total electricity)
  • Brazil: 491.9 TWh (83.3% of total electricity)
  • Canada: 433.6 TWh (66.9% of total electricity)
  • India: 303.5 TWh (24.5% of total electricity)

Note: three of the world’s worst offenders of fossil fuel use are also in the top five for energy production by renewables – China, U.S. and India.

So, are things changing slowly?

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What is deflation?

Deflation

Deflation is an economic phenomenon characterized by a general decline in prices for goods and services. It occurs when the inflation rate falls below 0%, resulting in a negative inflation rate. 

This means that the purchasing power of currency increases over time, allowing you to buy more with the same amount of money. It can be as damaging to the economy as inflation.

Consumer and Asset Prices: During deflation, both consumer and asset prices decrease, which might seem like a good thing because it increases the purchasing power.

Economic Impact: However, deflation can be harmful to the economy. It often signals an impending recession or hard economic times. If people expect prices to fall further, they may delay purchases, hoping to buy later at a lower price. This leads to reduced spending, which can cause producers to earn less, potentially leading to unemployment and higher interest rates.

Measurement: Deflation is measured using economic indicators like the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks the prices of commonly purchased goods and services. When the CPI shows that prices are lower than in a previous period, the economy is experiencing deflation.

Causes: The main causes of deflation include a decrease in demand or an increase in supply. A decline in aggregate demand can lead to lower prices if supply remains unchanged. Conversely, an increase in supply can also cause prices to drop if demand does not increase accordingly.

It’s important to note that deflation is different from disinflation. Disinflation refers to a slowdown in the rate of inflation, where prices are still rising but at a slower pace than before.

Deflation can have complex effects on an economy, and while it may benefit consumers in the short term, it can lead to broader economic challenges.

Deflation, friend or foe?

Deflation, often perceived as a relief during times of high prices, is a complex economic condition that presents both benefits and challenges. It is defined by a general decrease in the price level of goods and services, leading to an increase in the real value of money. This means consumers can buy more for less, but this apparent advantage masks the potential dangers lurking beneath the surface.

The immediate effect of deflation is an increase in consumer purchasing power. As prices drop, money buys more, which can be particularly beneficial for individuals on fixed incomes. However, this boon is short-lived if deflation persists. Consumers, anticipating further price drops, may postpone purchases, leading to a decrease in consumer spending, the lifeblood of any economy. This reduction in demand can force businesses to lower prices further, creating a vicious cycle that’s hard to break.

Deflation can lead to a reduction in demand and can force businesses to lower prices, creating a vicious cycle that’s difficult to break.

Moreover, deflation can exacerbate debt burdens. As prices and revenues fall, the real value of debt increases, making it more challenging for borrowers to repay their obligations. This can lead to increased loan defaults and financial instability. For businesses, falling prices mean reduced profit margins, leading to cost-cutting measures such as layoffs, reduced investment, and even bankruptcy.

Causes

The causes of deflation are multifaceted, often stemming from a decrease in aggregate demand or an oversupply of goods. Technological advancements, while boosting productivity, can also contribute to deflation by lowering production costs and increasing supply faster than demand. Additionally, a strong currency can make imports cheaper, contributing to lower prices domestically.

Tools

Central banks and governments typically combat deflation with monetary and fiscal policies aimed at stimulating demand. Lowering interest rates, increasing government spending, and quantitative easing are common strategies employed to inject money into the economy and encourage spending.

While deflation can initially seem like a welcome development, its long-term effects can be detrimental to economic health. It is a delicate balance that policymakers must navigate carefully to ensure stability and growth in the economy.

During this period of inflationary pressure, no country is beyond the grasp of deflation.

A message for governments and central banks around the world – don’t push too hard!

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UK economy declines more than expected in October 2023

UK growth

The economy fell by 0.3% October, after growth of 0.2% in September 2023.

UK GDP is 0.0%

The UK economy shrank more than expected in October 2023, as higher interest rates hit consumers. The bad weather didn’t help either.

Household spending has been dented by rate rises as the Bank of England tries to tackle inflation. It is due to make its next rate decision on Thursday 14th December 2023. Retail and tourism were hit by severe weather hit the UK in October 2023.

Analysts had predicted that the economy would fall by just 0.1% but services, manufacturing and construction sectors all contracted more than expected.

The UK economy has been stagnating and the Prime Minister has promised to speed up economic growth. But no significant recovery is expected until January 2025.

Chancellor’s spin

Commenting on the latest figures, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said it was ‘inevitable economic growth would be subdued, whilst interest rates are doing their job to bring down inflation.’

The figures underline the ongoing impact of the cost-of-living crisis and the tools employed by our ‘decision’ makers on our behalf.

Information from ONS