Nasdaq Composite narrowly secured its fifth consecutive record close

Record high

On Friday 14th June 2024, the Nasdaq Composite edged up to close at a record high for the fifth consecutive session.

Nasdaq Comp hits fresh record high for the fifth consecutive session

The tech-centric index rose slightly by 0.12%, finishing at 17688. The S&P 500 dipped slightly to close at 5431 and ending its four-day streak of gains.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 57.94 points, closing at 38589.

Elon Musk suggests Optimus robots could make Tesla a $25 trillion company – that’s more than half the current value of the S&P 500

Humanoid robot

It has been calculated that the S&P 500’s total value is currently $45.5 trillion. Tesla’s CEO, Elon Musk, claimed on Thursday 13th June 2024 that the company’s Optimus humanoid robots could potentially raise the automaker’s value to over half of that amount.

During the 2024 annual shareholder meeting in Austin, Texas, Musk, who reportedly identifies as ‘pathologically optimistic,’ declared that Tesla is not just entering a ‘new chapter,‘ but is on the brink of beginning an entirely ‘new book,’ with Optimus poised to play a pivotal role.

Tesla initially revealed its intention to develop humanoid robots at the AI Day event in 2021, showcasing a performer in a unitard as a stand-in for a sleek, gender-neutral robot prototype.

Musk’s vision

At the shareholder meeting, Musk was reserved about Optimus’ present capabilities. He suggested that, in the future, these robots could operate in a manner akin to Star Wars’ R2-D2 and C-3PO, undertaking tasks such as cooking, cleaning, factory work, or even teaching children.

In terms of shareholder value, Musk speculated that Optimus might play a key role in boosting Tesla’s market capitalization to $25 trillion eventually. No time scale was put forward.

And, don’t forget about the development of the robot taxi and of the fully autonomous vehicle.

Elon Musk’s bumper $56 billion pay deal to be reinstated as Tesla vote goes in favour

Elon Musk pay day

Tesla shareholders have voted to ratify CEO Elon Musk’s 2018 compensation package, which was previously rescinded by a Delaware judge in January.

During the annual meeting in Austin, Texas, shareholders voted in Musk’s favour.

Following Musk’s announcement that shareholders were likely to approve his pay package and a resolution to relocate the company’s incorporation to Texas, Tesla’s shares increased.

The vote endorsing the compensation plan does not supersede the court’s decision, yet it offers a public relations triumph for Musk and may aid his endeavor to persuade a court to grant him his performance options eventually.

Nice work if you can get it!

Norway and Sweden discover large deposits of important rare Earth metals

Rare Earth Metal deposited by volcanic activity millions of years ago

Significant deposits of rare earth metals have been found in both Norway and Sweden.

Norway

Rare Earths Norway (REN) has announced the discovery of the largest deposit of rare earth elements in Europe at the Fen Carbonatite Complex in southeastern Norway.

The deposit reportedly contains 8.8 million metric tons of total rare earth oxides (TREOs), including an estimated 1.5 million metric tons of magnet-related rare earths, which are vital for technologies like electric vehicles and wind turbines.

This discovery marks a significant advancement in Europe’s efforts to decrease its reliance on imported rare earths, especially from China.

Sweden

The discovery in Arctic Sweden of over one million tonnes of rare earth metals could significantly aid the EU in reducing its reliance on China for these crucial elements, which are essential for a wide range of high-tech applications.

These findings are critical for the green transition and Europe’s goal of increased self-sufficiency in vital raw materials. It is crucial to acknowledge, however, that the extraction process is intricate and necessitates meticulous attention to environmental impacts.

Due to the required permitting processes and environmental assessments, it could take over a decade for the materials from these discoveries to enter the market.

Fen Carbonatite Complex

The Fen Complex, located in Nome, Telemark, Norway, is renowned for its unique assortment of igneous rocks, such as carbonatite. It represents the remnants of a volcanic feeder pipe from a volcano that erupted 580 million years ago, characterised by carbonate-rich magma. The volcanic pipe’s circular formation spans roughly 2 km in diameter.

The EU imposes higher tariffs of up to 38% on Chinese EVs

EU and EV's

In a significant development that may affect the electric vehicle (EV) market, the European Union (EU) has tentatively agreed to levy tariffs on Chinese EV manufacturers.

This decision reportedly follows an inquiry into the surge of inexpensive, government-subsidized Chinese vehicles entering the EU market.

From 4th July 2024, Chinese EV producers who participated in the investigation will incur an average duty of 21%, while those who did not will face a substantial 38.1% tariff. Specific rates will be imposed on firms such as BYD, Geely, and SAIC.

Additionally, non-Chinese automobile companies manufacturing some EVs in China, including those based in the EU like BMW, will also be impacted. Tesla might receive a specially calculated duty rate upon request.

These levies are on top of the current 10% tariff on all electric cars manufactured in China. The EU’s action comes after the United States’ drastic measure last month to increase its tariff on Chinese electric cars from 25% to 100%.

Some critics view this anti-subsidy probe as protectionist, potentially harming China-EU economic relations and the worldwide automotive production and supply chain. The German Transport Minister has reportedly cautioned about the possibility of a trade conflict with Beijing.

Although the tariffs are intended to shield the EU’s own industry, they highlight the challenges of maintaining a balance between free trade and competitiveness in the swiftly changing EV sector.

Unless a qualified majority of EU nations opposes it, the tariffs will become permanent in November 2024. The European car industry stresses the need for free and fair trade but recognizes that promoting the adoption of electric cars requires a diverse strategy.

As the dispute over tariffs persists, the repercussions for the EV market are yet to be determined.

One thing is for sure, the consumer will suffer through these tariffs and also through extra road tax levies yet to be introduced, especially in the UK.

Apple finally now has AI and it’s called: Apple Intelligence (AI)

AI

Apple has entered the artificial intelligence race with the announcement of its version of AI – Apple Intelligence on Monday 10th June 2024, in its attempt to catch up in the AI race.

Reportedly to use it on your phone, you’ll need at least the high-end iPhone 15 Pro from this year’s lineup.

According to Apple’s website, Apple Intelligence will also be compatible with devices equipped with the M1 chip, including the iPad Air, iPad Pro, and Macs.

Apple Intelligence, set to launch in beta this autumn, will offer a variety of features. It will be able to proofread and rewrite your text in different tones, create personalized emojis known as ‘Genmoji,‘ and search for specific messages on your iPhone.

Additionally, it will summarize and transcribe phone calls, manage priority notifications, and integrate OpenAI’s ChatGPT for enhanced Siri responses.

Nothing new here then, just AI features already available elsewhere. Hopefully it will have a decent Apple AI make-over when it finally and fully arrives across all Apple products and platforms.

Apple isn’t leading in AI… yet – it’s just following for now!

Gold: a precious dilemma as it becomes scarce

Gold

The shimmering appeal of gold has enchanted humans for ages, yet beneath its radiant exterior, miners face escalating challenges.

According to the World Gold Council, the gold mining sector is finding it increasingly difficult to maintain production growth as the reserves of this precious metal become scarcer.

Depletion

Discovering new gold deposits is becoming increasingly challenging as many potential areas have already been scouted, leaving limited unexplored territories. Large-scale gold mining requires extensive exploration and development, often spanning 10 to 20 years before a mine becomes operational.

Exploration

Approximately 10% of global gold discoveries produce enough metal for mining operations. The success rates for exploration are quite low, and the chances of a discovery advancing to the stage of mine development are minimal.

Production

Despite record first-quarter mine production in 2024, the overall trend is concerning. Since around 2016-2018, global gold production has plateaued, with no sustained growth.

In 2023, mine production increased by a mere 0.5% compared to the previous year. The growth rates have steadily declined over the past decade.

Reserves

Globally, around 187,000 metric tons of gold have been extracted. China, South Africa, and Australia are at the forefront of production. The United States Geological Survey estimates that there are approximately 57,000 tonnes of minable gold reserves remaining.

Regulation

The process of obtaining government permits has grown increasingly difficult, with bureaucratic procedures causing delays in mining operations. Additionally, remote mining projects necessitate infrastructure such as roads, power, and water, which adds to the costs and complexity.

In summary, the glittering seams of gold are thinning. Miners grapple with scarcity, regulatory hurdles, and the diminishing promise of new discoveries. 

As we dig deeper, the quest for gold becomes a delicate balance between ambition and reality.

Gold chart over one year

Gold chart over one year

Countries holding largest gold stockpiles of gold

Countries holding largest gold stockpiles of gold

Is the diamond industry ‘in trouble’ as lab-grown gems gain market share?

Lab diamonds

The demand for diamonds has declined as its allure fades in a key consumer market, China.

“Diamonds don’t really fit in anymore despite the strong legacy of De Beers under Anglo,” independent diamond industry analyst Paul Zimnisky reportedly said.

According to Zimnisky’s rough diamond index, diamond prices have decreased by 5.7% this year, marking a decline of over 30% from their peak in 2022.

Lab-grown diamonds, potentially up to 85% less expensive than natural ones, are created in a controlled environment using high pressure and heat to mimic the formation of natural diamonds in the Earth’s mantle.

Sales of lab-grown diamonds have increased from a mere 2% of the global diamond jewellery market in 2017 to 18.4% in 2023, as reported by Zimnisky.

A fall in marriage rates as well as growing popularity for gold and lab-grown gems all drove down Chinese demand for diamonds, according to market research firm Daxue Consulting.

The lifting of pandemic restrictions has led consumers to redirect their spending towards travel experiences rather than diamond products.

The preference for lab-grown diamonds plays a critical role in driving down prices of natural diamonds.

Banknotes with King Charles III enter circulation for the first time

King Charles on a Five Pound Note
Banknotes featuring a portrait of King Charles III entered circulation on Wednesday 5th June 2024.

Banknotes featuring a portrait of King Charles III entered circulation on Wednesday 5th June 2024.

Charles’s portrait will be featured on the front of the £5, £10, £20, and £50 banknotes, visible through the notes’ transparent security window. He is only the second monarch to appear on British banknotes, following Queen Elizabeth II.

Currently, there are more than 4.6 billion Bank of England notes in circulation, with a combined value of around £82 billion.

Bank of England

Little know company Kneron launches latest AI chips – backed by Qualcomm

AI chip

Kneron, a startup specializing in artificial intelligence chips, unveiled its latest products on Wednesday 4th June 2024.

The company aims to exploit the growing world-wide interest in AI and provide an alternative to industry heavyweights such as Nvidia and AMD.

The company, headquartered in Taiwan and supported by American semiconductor leader Qualcomm and major iPhone assembler Foxconn, introduced the KNEO 330, its second-generation ‘edge GPT’ server.

GPT, short for generative pre-trained transformer, is an AI algorithm trained on vast datasets capable of generating text and images, with OpenAI’s ChatGPT being the world leader right now.

Intel unveils new AI chips as it seeks to reclaim market share

Ai microchip

Intel announced its new Xeon 6 processors at the Computex tech conference in Taiwan on Tuesday 4th June 2024.

This announcement coincides with the recent launches of new artificial intelligence chips by rivals Nvidia and AMD on Sunday and Monday 2nd and 3rd June 2024 – as they compete for dominance in the rapidly growing industry.

Intel is making efforts to catch up with Nvidia and AMD, having been relatively absent from the AI surge that led tech giants such as Meta, Microsoft, and Google to purchase a significant number of Nvidia chips.

This comes half a year after Intel’s release of its 5th Gen Intel Xeon processors for data centre workloads and a couple of months following the announcement of the Gaudi 3 processor for AI model training and deployment.

Intel also disclosed that the Gaudi 2 and Gaudi 3 AI accelerators are priced lower than those of its competitors.

Furthermore, Intel shared architectural details of its forthcoming Lunar Lake processors, aimed at expanding the AI PC category. These processors, slated for release in the third quarter, are set to rival Nvidia’s and AMD’s offerings tailored for AI PCs.

While Nvidia and AMD focus on chip design, Intel stands out by both designing and manufacturing its chips. Nevertheless, Intel’s foundry business has faced challenges, with its operating loss widening to $7 billion in 2023 compared to the previous year.

Cisco’s ThousandEyes has unveiled an AI product designed to predict and rectify internet outages

AI net

ThousandEyes, Cisco’s internet monitoring division, has introduced a new suite of AI-driven features known as Digital Experience Assurance, or DXA, on Tuesday 4th June 2024.

The firm asserts that this new AI technology will allow customers to not only monitor but also automatically address issues affecting network quality.

Describing itself as the ‘Google Maps’ of the internet, Cisco ThousandEyes offers a comprehensive, end-to-end perspective of every user and application across all networks.

Established 15 years prior, the company has been heavily investing in AI technology in recent years.

ThousandEyes is now implementing significant AI-centric modifications to its platform, which are designed to enhance its clients’ oversight of network quality and robustness.

Bad economic news can be good for stocks

Bad news and good news

Bad economic news appears to have had an interesting impact on the stock market recently.

Traditionally, negative economic data might be anticipated to result in falling stock prices; however, recent trends have diverged from this norm.

News trend

In the past two months, negative economic news has had a paradoxically positive effect on equities. Investors have responded well to poor economic indicators, partly due to the belief that these could lead the Federal Reserve to begin reducing interest rates.

Dollar and the stock market

In recent times, the S&P 500, a large-cap equity index, and the U.S. dollar have exhibited a nearly perfect correlation. As the dollar has seen a gradual decline, the stock market has conversely experienced a rise. Typically, investors flock to the security of cash, and consequently the dollar, in times of uncertainty, yet they also channel investments into stocks upon the arrival of favourable news.

Economic data

Despite the upbeat trend in the stock market, real economic data has frequently fallen short of Wall Street’s predictions. The Citi Economic Surprise Index, a gauge that compares data to expectations, has been on a downward trajectory. This suggests that expectations have been surpassing the actual economic conditions, signalling that the economic situation may not be as favorable as previously thought.

Dilemma for the Fed

The Federal Reserve methodically reviews economic indicators to influence their interest rate decisions. Typically, unfavorable economic reports might prompt the Fed to reduce rates, unless there’s an uptick in inflation. Escalating inflation generally nudges the Fed towards a tighter monetary policy.

Monthly data roll-out

Data concerning the U.S. labour market presented to the Fed and markets may create that ‘pivotal’ moment – it often does – markets move of Fed comments and ‘awaited’ news. Reports detailing job openings, private sector job creation, and the Bureau of Labour Statistics’ nonfarm payrolls will shed light on the economy’s condition.

If job growth remains within the ‘Goldilocks range’ (neither too strong nor too weak), it may preserve the fragile equilibrium where unfavourable economic news has paradoxically favoured stock prices, while preventing excessive gloom.

Conclusion

To summarize, although adverse economic news has lately been advantageous for stock markets, monitoring this precarious balance is crucial. Excessive pessimism could be a harbinger of impending difficulties, despite its current benefits.

Note about Citigroup Economic Surprise Index

The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index is the sum of the difference between the actual value of various economic data and their consensus forecast. If the index is greater than zero, it means that the overall economic performance is generally better than expected, and the S&P 500 has a high probability of strengthening, and vice versa.

Bitcoin miners rotate millions into AI – but why?

Bitcoin mining

Bitcoin miners have been diversifying operations into artificial intelligence (AI) due to several key factors.

Since Bitcoin halving, miners have been searching for more lucrative income streams as AI and crypto industries collide.

Revenue shift

The revenue from crypto mining, especially Bitcoin, has significantly decreased in recent months. After the ‘Bitcoin halving’ event in April 2024, rewards earned by Bitcoin miners were cut by 50%. As a result, miners have been seeking alternative revenue streams.

AI boom

Following the unveiling of ChatGPT by OpenAI in November 2022, there has been a significant increase in the demand for AI computation and infrastructure. This surge has led to a flurry of investments in AI models and startups, presenting miners with new opportunities to transition into the AI sector.

Energy access

Bitcoin miners are progressively turning to ‘stranded energy site’s – these are locations with surplus or untapped energy for mining operations. At the same time, they are channelling investments into AI at more stable sites. This strategic move enables them to leverage the potentially higher returns from AI.

Core Scientific

Core Scientific, a Bitcoin mining company, has recently entered into a 12-year agreement with cloud provider CoreWeave to supply infrastructure for AI applications. This partnership is anticipated to generate in excess of $3.5 billion in revenue over the duration of the contract. CoreWeave, supported by Nvidia, offers rental of graphics processing units (GPUs) essential for AI model training.

In conclusion, Bitcoin miners are increasingly adopting AI to adjust to the evolving market dynamics and to uncover new revenue streams beyond conventional mining. The merging of AI and the cryptocurrency industry offers promising prospects for both fields.

AMD announces new chips amid intensifying AI competition

Artificial Intelligence chips

AMD announced new artificial intelligence chips on Monday 3rd June 2024, aiming to position itself as a leader in the market alongside competitors such as Nvidia and Intel.

“AI is our number one priority and we’re at the beginning of an incredibly exciting time for the industry as AI transforms virtually every business, improves our quality of life, and reshapes every part of the computing market,” chair and CEO Lisa Su reportedly commented during the Computex tech conference.

The company unveiled the Ryzen AI 300 series for next-generation AI laptops. The line is anticipated to compete directly with Intel’s upcoming Lunar Lake and Qualcomm’s Snapdragon X. And in partnership with Microsoft, these new AI chips will power laptops equipped with the tech giant’s AI chatbot Copilot.

AMD has unveiled the new Ryzen 9000 series for desktops, inferred as ‘the world’s fastest consumer PC processors’ for gaming and content creation.

The series is due for release in July 2024, following closely on the heels of AMD’s April announcement of new processors capable of running AI workloads – the Ryzen Pro 8040 for laptops and the Ryzen Pro 8000 for desktops.

AMD one year chart

AMD one year chart

Nvidia announces new AI chips

AI

Nvidia has revealed its latest generation of AI chips, coming just months after the release of its preceding model.

This rapid succession underscores the intense competition within the AI chip market and Nvidia’s relentless effort to maintain its leading position.

CEO Jensen Huang has now committed to unveiling new AI chip technology annually, accelerating the company’s prior biannual pace. The latest AI chip architecture, named ‘Rubin,’ is set to follow the ‘Blackwell’ model announced in March 2024, which is currently in production and anticipated to be delivered to customers the latter part of 2024.

Huang’s unveiling of the Rubin has seemingly hastened Nvidia’s already rapid AI chip development.

Nvidia has committed to launching new AI chip designs annually, a cadence Huang reportedly referred to as a ‘one-year rhythm‘ during his Sunday 2nd June 2024 announcement. Previously, the company was committed to updating its chips every two years. But such is the speed and fierce competition of AI development, that original decision has become quickly out-dated.

The swift transition from Blackwell to Rubin, taking less than three months, highlights the intense competition in the AI chip market and Nvidia’s race to maintain its leading position.

AMD and Intel are two major competitors playing catch-up in the AI race.

Nvidia one year share chart

Nvidia one year share chart

AI power hungry data centres go green in Singapore

AI thirst for power

Singapore is actively addressing the dual challenges of the increasing demand for artificial intelligence (AI) and the pressure on energy resources. The nation recently unveiled a green data centre roadmap to bolster its digital economy aspirations.

Growing AI Demand and Energy Strain

With the increasing demand for digital and AI computation, the requirement for data centre capacity has grown. This heightened demand is exerting pressure on national energy networks, calling for urgent attention.

Goals

The Green Data Centre plan is designed to deliver a minimum of 300 megawatts of extra capacity. Singapore’s strategy includes improving energy efficiency in all data centres, implementing energy-efficient IT equipment, and providing incentives or grants to promote resource efficiency.

Sustainability

Singapore acknowledges the substantial contribution of data centres to its ICT sector’s emissions, accounting for 82% of the sector’s emissions and 7% of the nation’s total electricity consumption. By prioritizing energy efficiency, renewable energy, and sustainability, Singapore strives to maintain its position as a premier digital hub while reducing its environmental impact.

International status

Singapore’s data centers capitalize on the nation’s global standing as a commercial and digital centre. The city-state ranks as the second-largest data center market in Southeast Asia and holds the sixth position in the Asia-Pacific region.

In conclusion, Singapore’s focus on green data centres demonstrates its pledge to sustainable development amidst increasing energy needs driven by AI. With an emphasis on energy efficiency and renewable energy, Singapore seeks to harmonize technological progress with ecological stewardship.

What is the Hindenburg Omen? A recent report suggests it has been triggered…

Red Stock market

The Hindenburg Omen is a technical indicator that signals a higher likelihood of a stock market crash.

It measures the percentage of new 52-week highs and lows against a set reference percentage. The simultaneous occurrence of new highs and lows suggests a statistical anomaly from the norm, potentially foreshadowing a stock market downturn.

The four main criteria for a Hindenburg Omen signal

  • The daily number of new 52-week highs and 52-week lows in a stock market index must be greater than a threshold amount (typically around 2.2%).
  • The ratio of 52-week highs to 52-week lows cannot be more than two times.
  • The stock market index must still be in an uptrend (determined using a 10-week moving average or the 50-day rate of change indicator).
  • The McClellan Oscillator (MCO), which measures the shift in market sentiment, must be negative.

Once the criteria are satisfied, the Hindenburg Omen remains active for 30 trading days, and any subsequent signals within this time frame should be disregarded.

Confirmation of the Hindenburg Omen occurs if the McClellan Oscillator (MCO) stays negative throughout this period, while a positive MCO invalidates it.

Traders typically employ this indicator alongside other technical analysis methods to determine optimal selling times. However, it’s crucial to remember that the Hindenburg Omen is not infallible and should be used in conjunction with other market factors.

Microsoft’s AI system Recall can take screenshots

Copilot

The UK’s data protection authority, the Information Commissioner’s Office (ICO), is reportedly making inquiries into a new screenshot feature available from Microsoft.

This feature, known as Recall, is a component of the Copilot+ suite and aims to take encrypted snapshots of a user’s laptop screen at intervals, storing them on the device. The ICO is examining the feature to determine the privacy protections in place.

Recall is designed to enable users to search their computer usage history using natural language, effectively creating a type of photographic memory of their activity. Concerns have been voiced about the feature’s potential to become a ‘privacy nightmare’ due to its ability to capture sensitive information. Microsoft has clarified that Recall is a voluntary feature, giving users the choice over the snapshots it collects. The data is kept on the local device and is inaccessible to Microsoft or others without access to the device.

The ICO’s investigation aims to ensure that companies thoroughly evaluate and address any risks to individual rights and freedoms prior to launching new technologies. Microsoft has reiterated its dedication to privacy and security, noting that these principles were integral to the development of Recall. The company has also indicated that users can specify the snapshots collected by Recall and that Microsoft Edge’s private browsing mode is not included.

Awareness of software features and privacy settings is crucial for users, particularly regarding personal data handling. The ICO’s inquiries represent a move towards addressing privacy concerns and safeguarding user data.

IMF upgrades China’s growth forecast to 5%

China GDP

On Wednesday 29th May 2024, the International Monetary Fund increased its projection for China’s economic growth this year to 5% from the previous 4.6%, citing robust first-quarter figures and recent policy actions.

This revision reportedly came after the IMF’s routine evaluation visit to China. The institution now predicts that China’s economy will expand by 4.5% in 2025, an increase from the earlier estimate of 4.1%.

However, by 2029, the IMF expects China’s growth to slow to 3.3%, influenced by an aging demographic and a decline in productivity growth. This is a decrease from the previous medium-term growth forecast of 3.5%.

China’s economy experienced a stronger-than-anticipated growth of 5.3% in the Q1, bolstered by robust exports. Meanwhile, April’s data indicated that consumer spending continued to be weak, although there was a resurgence in industrial activity.

Chinese EV makers continue their BIG push into European markets

EV

This expansion occurs as the European Union investigates subsidies provided to Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers, a situation that may lead to the imposition of tariffs.

In May 2024 Nio opened a new EV showroom in Amsterdam, while Xpeng introduced its G9 and G6 sports utility vehicles in France.

Over the years, China’s electric vehicle industry has flourished due to the government’s incentives and support, raising concerns among politicians in Europe and the U.S.

Public marketing campaigns are unfolding against the backdrop of a European Commission investigation into subsidies provided to Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers. The outcome of this inquiry may result in EU tariffs being imposed on Chinese EV imports.

The United States has preempted such measures, with the Biden administration enacting a 100% tariff on Chinese EV imports.

Meanwhile, Chinese EV producers are intensifying their international expansion efforts, aiming to compete with Elon Musk’s Tesla on a global scale and secure an early advantage over traditional car manufacturers.

IMF recommends UK interest rates should be cut to 3.5% by end of 2025

UK Charts

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) advises that the Bank of England should contemplate reducing its interest rates to 3.5% by the end of 2025.

This suggestion is made as the UK’s economy steadily recovers from the recession caused by the pandemic, while policymakers are dealing with inflationary challenges.

The ‘thinking’ behind the recommendation

Economic Recovery and Inflation Outlook

The IMF’s recommendation is grounded in its assessment of the UK’s economic trajectory.

Growth Forecast

The International Monetary Fund has upgraded its growth forecast for the UK in 2024, signaling a positive outlook. It anticipates growth of 0.7% this year and 1.5% in 2025.

Inflation

The IMF anticipates that UK inflation will decline to near the Bank of England’s target of 2% and stabilise at this rate in early 2025, indicating that inflationary pressures are within manageable limits.

Soft Landing

The UK economy is said to be approaching a ‘soft landing‘ following the mild recession of the previous year. Policymakers are focused on finding a balance between fostering growth and managing inflation.

Monetary Policy Considerations

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has been closely monitoring economic indicators and inflation trends. Here’s why the IMF’s recommendation matters:

Interest Rate Peaks

The Monetary Policy Committee has indicated that interest rates might have reached their peak. The current restrictive monetary policy is having an impact on the actual economy and the dynamics of inflation.

Market Expectations

Analysts anticipate the first interest rate cut by September 2024 at the latest. Market expectations align with this projection, with the base interest rate likely to be lowered to 4% by the end of 2025.

Balancing Act

Policymakers face the delicate task of supporting economic recovery while preventing runaway inflation. The IMF’s suggestion aims to strike this balance.

Implications for Borrowers and Savers

Mortgage Holders

Variable Rate Mortgages

If you have a variable rate mortgage, a rate cut could reduce your monthly payments. However, keep an eye on your lender’s response to any rate changes.

Fixed Rate Mortgages

Fixed-rate borrowers won’t immediately benefit from rate cuts, but they should still monitor the situation. If rates continue to fall, refinancing might become attractive.

Savers

Savings Accounts

Lower interest rates typically lead to diminished returns on savings accounts. It may be wise to diversify your investments to seek potentially higher yields in other areas.

Fixed-Term Deposit

Current fixed-term deposits will remain unaffected; however, new deposits might generate lower yields. It is advisable to carefully assess your alternatives.

Conclusion

The IMF’s recommendation highlights the intricate balance between fostering economic recovery and managing inflation. As the Bank of England considers its next steps, it is crucial for borrowers and savers to remain informed and adjust their financial strategies as needed.

For homeowners, investors, and savers alike, grasping the potential consequences of rate cuts is key to making well-informed choices in an ever-changing economic environment.

Disclaimer: The information provided here is based on current projections and should not be considered financial advice. It is not given as financial advice – it is for discussion and analysis only!

Consult a professional advisor for personalised recommendations.

Remember – always do your careful research first!

RESEARCH! RESEARCH! RESEARCH!

Update

The Bank of England has given its strongest hint yet that interest rates could be cut this summer. This comment was observed in a recent speech given by the deputy governor of the Bank of England.

SEC approves rule change to allow creation of ether ETFs

Ethereum crypto

On Thursday 23rd May 2024, the SEC sanctioned a rule amendment that clears the path for ETFs investing in ether, one of the largest cryptocurrencies globally.

This move occurs less than half a year after the Securities and Exchange Commission greenlit Bitcoin ETFs. These funds have been a significant triumph for the industry, with net inflows reportedly exceeding $12 billion.

May was widely anticipated as a likely verdict time for the ether funds, aligning with the SEC’s deadline to determine the fate of the VanEck Ethereum ETF.

Numerous firms that back Bitcoin ETFs – such as Bitwise, BlackRock and Galaxy Digital – have been reported to have initiated the process to launch their own ether ETF.

Ether’s value saw a modest increase following a 20% climb earlier in the week in anticipation of the SEC’s ruling. However, some investors might be holding back, considering the SEC’s approval of the rule change doesn’t ensure the launch of all proposed funds.

Ethereum one year chart (CoinMarketCap)

Amazon plans to give Alexa an AI make-over

Smart speaker

Amazon is reportedly set to launch an enhanced version of its long-standing voice assistant this year, which will be available for a monthly fee, according to sources.

This new service reportedly will not be part of the Amazon Prime subscription. The news emerges as OpenAI introduced a chatbot capable of engaging in two-way conversations, contrasting with Alexa’s current common uses such as setting kitchen timers and providing weather updates.

Now what’s wrong with that – that’s how I use my Alexa!

UK Prime Minister announces snap general election for 4th July 2024

UK election

On 22nd May 2024, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced a snap general election for 4th July 2024 This decision caught many by surprise, as the election was called more than around six months earlier than legally required.

Election Date: 4th July 2024let the fireworks begin

The Conservative Party, led by Rishi Sunak, is facing significant challenges in opinion polls, trailing behind the opposition Labour Party.

The economy, immigration, health services, and cost of living have been identified as key issues for voters.

Labour, led by Sir Keir Starmer, is considered the clear frontrunner, with a substantial lead in recent polls.

Since 2010, the Conservatives have seen five prime ministers: David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, and now Rishi Sunak.

Sir Keir described the past 14 years as “Tory chaos” and emphasised that it’s time for change.

So, the UK is gearing up for an early election, and the outcome will be closely watched both domestically and internationally

Big tech companies pledge AI safety commitments

AI Kill Switch!

Leading technology companies, such as Microsoft, Amazon, and OpenAI, have united under a significant international accord for artificial intelligence (AI) safety measures, established at the Seoul AI Safety Summit on Tuesday 21st May 2024.

Following the agreement, firms from various nations, including the UK, China, Canada, the U.S., France, South Korea, and the United Arab Emirates, have pledged to voluntarily commit to the secure development of their cutting-edge AI models.

Framework

AI model developers who have not already done so agreed to issue safety frameworks that detail how they will address the challenges posed by their advanced models, including the prevention of technology misuse by malicious entities.

These frameworks will feature ‘red lines’ that tech companies will establish to delineate the types of risks associated with advanced AI systems that are deemed ‘unacceptable.’ These risks encompass, but are not limited to, automated cyberattacks and the potential for bioweapons.

Kill switch

In the event of such dire scenarios, companies have declared their intention to introduce a ‘kill switch’ that would halt the development of their AI models should they be unable to ensure the mitigation of these risks.

“It is unprecedented for so many prominent AI firms from diverse regions of the world to concur on identical commitments regarding AI safety,” Rishi Sunak, the UK Prime Minister reportedly said on Tuesday 21st May 2024.

He further noted that these commitments would guarantee that the world’s foremost AI companies will maintain transparency and accountability concerning their safe AI development strategies.

This agreement builds upon a prior set of pledges made in November 2023 by entities engaged in the creation of generative AI software.

The involved companies have consented to seek feedback on these standards from ‘trusted actors,’ which include their respective national governments when suitable, prior to their publication in anticipation of the forthcoming AI summit – the AI Action Summit scheduled to take place in France in early 2025.