OpenAI saga continues – I’m in, I’m out, I’m back. Altman is back after getting the sack!

OpenAI

At the speed of AI, the story at OpenAI moves at lightning speed.

Hundreds of OpenAI employees signed a letter demanding the OpenAI board resign or face an employee exodus to Sam Altman’s new venture at Microsoft ‘imminently‘.

The board then attempted to negotiate Altman’s return, but those talks were unsuccessful.

At the touch of a button – resignation letter sent to the OpenAI board of directors

To the Board of Directors at OpenAI

OpenAI is the world’s leading AI company. We, the employees of OpenAI, have developed the best models and pushed the field to new frontiers. Our work on AI safety and governance shapes global norms. The products we built are used by millions of people around the world. Until now, the company we work for and cherish has never been in a stronger position.

The process through which you terminated Sam Altman and removed Greg Brockman from the board has jeopardized all of this work and undermined our mission and company. Your conduct has made it clear you did not have the competence to oversee OpenAI.

When we all unexpectedly learned of your decision, the leadership team of OpenAI acted swiftly to stabilize the company. They carefully listened to your concerns and tried to cooperate with you on all grounds. Despite many requests for specific facts for your allegations, you have never provided any written evidence. They also increasingly realized you were not capable of carrying out your duties, and were negotiating in bad faith.

The leadership team suggested that the most stabilizing path forward – the one that would best serve our mission, company, stakeholders, employees and the public – would be for you to resign and put in place a qualified board that could lead the company forward in stability. Leadership worked with you around the clock to find a mutually agreeable outcome. Yet within two days of your initial decision, you again replaced interim CEO Mira Murati against the best interests of the company. You also informed the leadership team that allowing the company to be destroyed “would be consistent with the mission.”

Your actions have made it obvious that you are incapable of overseeing OpenAI. We are unable to work for or with people that lack competence, judgement and care for our mission and employees. We, the undersigned, may choose to resign from OpenAI and join the newly announced Microsoft subsidiary run by Sam Altman and Greg Brockman. Microsoft has assured us that there are positions for all OpenAI employees at this new subsidiary should we choose to join. We will take this step imminently, unless all current board members resign, and the board appoints two new lead independent directors, such as Bret Taylor and Will Hurd, and reinstates Sam Altman and Greg Brockman.”

In just 5 days

  • Sam Altman sacked from OpenAI.
  • Altman appears to move to Microsoft.
  • OpenAI staff revolt.
  • No confidence in OpenAI board.
  • Space for staff to move to Microsoft and create new AI company under Altman’s leadership.
  • OpenAI mass employee resignation letter emerges.
  • Microsoft CEO Nadella says OpenAI governance needs to change no matter where Altman ends up.
  • Altman back at OpenAI after board changes.

Now, Altman is back after getting the sack.

So, is all OK at OpenAI? I asked CHATGPT the question, here is the answer…

Searching for: OpenAI news

Generating answers for you…OpenAI

It seems that there is some turmoil at OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT. According to the latest news, the former CEO Sam Altman, who was ousted and hired by Microsoft last week, has made a stunning return to OpenAI as the CEO again1The company also announced a new board of directors, including Bret Taylor, the former chair of Twitter1This comes after a series of protests and resignations from OpenAI employees, who were unhappy with the direction and culture of the company2OpenAI also unveiled new models and products at its DevDay event, such as GPT-4 Turbo, Assistants API, GPT-4 Turbo with Vision, and DALL·E 3 API3. These are some of the developments that have been happening at OpenAI recently. I hope this answers your question. 😊

There you have it, sacked and now back!

Microsoft announces custom AI chip November 2023

Art impression of AI chip

Microsoft is working on its own artificial intelligence chip, code-named Athena, that could compete with Nvidia’s products.

The company introduced two new microchips.

The first, its Maia 100 artificial intelligence chip, could compete with Nvidia’s highly sought-after AI graphics processing units.

The second, a Cobalt 100 Arm chip, is aimed at general computing tasks and could compete with Intel processors.

The chip is designed for training large language models (LLM’s) like ChatGPT and powering AI applications. Microsoft has been developing the chip since 2019 using Taiwan Semiconductor’s 5-nanometer process.  The chip is currently being tested by a small select group of Microsoft and OpenAI employees.

Long-term objective

Microsoft’s objective is to reduce its dependency on third-party hardware providers and to customize its AI infrastructure for its own projects.

Microsoft has invested billions in OpenAI, which makes ChatGPT, to enhance its position in the AI field. The Athena chip could also enable Microsoft to add AI capabilities to its Office products and GitHub, but it has already achieved this using the OpenAI system.

Microsoft has not announced when the chip will be available to the public or to its Azure cloud customers.

IMF says now is the time for central bank digital currencies

Central Bank digital money to replace cash

IMF’s Kristalina Georgieva reportedly said that the public sector should keep preparing to deploy central bank digital currencies (CBDC’s) and related payment platforms in the future.

But according to data from the Atlantic Council, only 11 countries have adopted CDBC’s thus far.

Alternative to cash

Central bank digital currencies (CBDC’s) have the potential to replace cash. But adoption could take time, said Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund on Wednesday 15th November 2023.

‘CBDC’s can replace cash which is costly to distribute”, she is reported to have said at the Singapore FinTech event. ‘They can offer resilience in more advanced economies. And they can improve financial inclusion where few hold bank accounts’.

CBDC’s would offer a safe and low-cost alternative to cash. They would also offer a bridge between private monies and a yardstick to measure their value, just like cash today which we can withdraw from our banks’, the IMF chief reportedly said.

Fiat currency

CBDC’s are the digital form of a country’s fiat currency, which are regulated by the country’s central bank. They are powered by blockchain technology, allowing central banks to channel government payments directly to households.

Central Bank digital money to replace cash. IMF’s Kristalina Georgieva reportedly said that the public sector should keep preparing to deploy central bank digital currencies (CBDC’s) and related payment platforms in the future.

The IMF has indicated that more than 100 countries are exploring CBDC’s – that’s approximately 60% of countries in the world.

‘The level of global interest in CBDCs is unprecedented. Several central banks have already launched pilots or even issued a CBDC’, the IMF said in a September 2023 report.

According to a 2022 survey conducted by the Bank for International Settlements, of the 86 central banks surveyed, 93% said they were exploring CBDCs, while 58% said they were likely to or may possibly issue a retail CBDC in either the short or medium term.

But as of June 2023, only 11 countries had adopted CBDC’s, with an additional 53 in advanced planning stages and 46 researching, according to data from the Atlantic Council.

Nvidia unveils its newest GH200 high-end AI superchip

Art impression of AI chip

Nvidia has recently announced its latest high-end chip, the GH200 Grace Hopper Superchip, which is designed for training AI models at giant scale. 

The GH200 is a breakthrough accelerated CPU that combines the NVIDIA Grace™ and Hopper™ architectures using NVIDIA® NVLink®-C2C to deliver a CPU+GPU coherent memory model for AI and HPC applications. The superchip delivers up to 10X higher performance for applications running terabytes of data, enabling scientists and researchers to reach unprecedented solutions for the world’s most complex problems.

The technical bit

The GH200 features 72 cores of Grace CPU outfitted with 480 GB of ECC LPDDR5X memory, as well as the GH100 compute GPU that is paired with 141 GB of HBM3E memory that comes in six 24 GB stacks and uses a 6,144-bit memory interface. 

The GH200 also has a new 900 gigabytes per second (GB/s) coherent interface, which is 7X faster than PCIe Gen5, and supercharges accelerated computing and generative AI with HBM3 and HBM3e GPU memory. The GH200 can run all NVIDIA software stacks and platforms, including NVIDIA AI Enterprise, HPC SDK, and Omniverse™.

Nvidia GH200 superchip for AI
Nvidia unveils its newest GH200 high-end AI Superchip.

The GH200 is available as part of the NVIDIA DGX GH200, a massive memory supercomputer that fully connects 256 GH200 Superchips into a singular GPU. The DGX GH200 offers 144 terabytes (TB) of shared memory with linear scalability for giant AI models. 

The DGX GH200 is a turnkey data centre-class solution that includes integrated software and white-glove services from NVIDIA, from design to deployment, to speed the ROI of AI. 

The DGX GH200 is the only AI supercomputer that offers a massive, shared memory space of 144TB across 256 NVIDIA Grace Hopper Superchips, providing developers with nearly 500X more memory to build giant models.

Full details available on the Nvidia website.

AI just negotiated a contract for the first time ever

AI contract

In a world first, it was recently reported that artificial intelligence (AI) demonstrated the ability to negotiate a contract autonomously with another artificial intelligence without any human involvement.

Luminance at its London headquarters, demonstrated its AI, called Autopilot, negotiating a non-disclosure agreement in a matter of minutes.

It marks the first time AI has ever negotiated a contract with another AI, with no human involvement.

The only input from a human that is still required, is the signing of the contract.

In a world first, artificial intelligence (AI) demonstrated the ability to negotiate a contract autonomously.

IBM pivots to AI – STOCK WATCH

IBM

An old well established and trusted tech brand pivoting to AI that has a high dividend yield is IBM, which has been around for more than a century and is known for both its hardware and software products. 

IBM is investing heavily in AI, cloud computing, and quantum computing, and has recently acquired several AI start-ups, such as Instana, Turbonomic, and Waeg. 

IBM also has a partnership with OpenAI, one of the leading AI research organizations, to provide cloud infrastructure for its AI models.

Investors who love IBM expect the company to grow its earnings by around 10% annually over the next five years. Investors were also impressed with IBM’s dividend yield, which is currently around 4.5%. Dividends are a great way to generate passive income.

IBM is not the only tech company that is pivoting to AI. Google, Microsoft, and Anthropic are competing in the field of generative AI, which can create text, images, music, and more from natural language prompts. 

Integrate generative AI

These companies are attempting to integrate generative AI into their products and services, such as search engines, maps, word processors, office applications, chatbots, and more. Generative AI is seen as a game-changer for many industries and applications, and could potentially disrupt the dominance of Big Tech.

Legacy companies can pivot to a platform model, which is a business strategy that connects producers and consumers of value through a digital interface. Platform companies like Facebook, Amazon, Google, and Tencent have created value at stunning rates, and have grown rapidly and own large market shares. 

IBM mainframe from the 1970’s

Legacy companies can leverage their existing systems, such as customer relationships, data, and brand recognition, to create platforms that offer impressive and immersive products and services. 

Other successful platform pivots are Disney+, which transformed Disney from a media producer to a media platform; Nike+, which connected Nike’s physical products with digital services; and John Deere, which created a platform for precision agriculture.

Elon Musk says AI will eventually create a situation where ‘no job is needed’

Robots taking over human work

Elon Musk is one of the most influential and visionary leaders in the field of AI.

He has recently shared his views on how AI will eventually create a situation where no job is needed, and how humans will have to find meaning in life.

Disruptive or force for good?

Elon Musk recently reportedly said that AI will have the potential to become the ‘most disruptive force in history’ and that it will be smarter than the smartest human. 

He compared AI to a ‘magic genie’ that would grant unlimited wishes to its owners. He also said that AI will be able to do everything, and that people will not need to work for money, but only for personal satisfaction.

AI genie is out of the bottle
‘AI genie is out of the bottle!’

This is a very optimistic and futuristic vision of AI, but it also raises some important questions and challenges.

  • How will humans cope with the loss of work and purpose?
  • How will society and economy function without jobs and income?
  • How will humans ensure that AI is aligned with their values and interests?
  • How will humans prevent AI from becoming a threat or a tyrant?

UK AI summit

These are some of the issues that were discussed at the AI Safety Summit 2023 at Bletchley Park in England, where world leaders agreed to a global communique on AI that recognized the potential risks associated with AI. 

The summit was attended by, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris and other tech and business executives, including Elon Musk himself.

Benefit or a disaster waiting to happen?

AI is a powerful technology that can bring many benefits and opportunities to humanity, but it also requires careful and responsible development and regulation. It can bring ‘disaster’ too if not managed constructively.

It is hoped humans and AI can coexist peacefully and harmoniously in the future.

My biggest fear is this will not be the case.

Sam Bankman-Fried, the Crypto King found guilty of FTX fraud

Guilty of fraud

Sam Bankman-Fried, founder of the world’s biggest cryptocurrency exchange, has been found guilty of fraud and money laundering at the end of a month-long trial in New York.

He was accused of lying to investors and customers and stealing billions of dollars from FTX, which went bankrupt in November 2022. He now faces up to 115 years in prison. The jury delivered its verdict after less than five hours of deliberations. His sentencing has been set for 28th March 2024.

Month long trial

The verdict was delivered after a month-long trial that saw three of his former associates, including his ex-girlfriend, testify against him as part of a plea deal. They revealed that Bankman-Fried used customer deposits from FTX to fund his other company, Alameda Research, as well as to buy property and make political donations. He denied the charges and claimed that he acted in good faith and made mistakes due to being overwhelmed by the rapid growth of his businesses.

It concludes a dramatic fall from grace for the 31-year-old former billionaire and one of the most public faces of the crypto industry.

The case has been seen as a major blow to the crypto industry, which has been struggling to recover from the market crash and regulatory scrutiny that followed the FTX collapse. Bankman-Fried was once one of the most prominent and influential figures in the sector, known for his philanthropy and crypto industry innovation. 

His downfall has been described as the industry’s greatest cautionary tale.

Verdict

‘Sam Bankman-Fried perpetrated one of the biggest financial frauds in American history – a multibillion-dollar scheme designed to make him the king of crypto’, U.S. attorney Damian Williams said in a statement after the verdict. ‘This case has always been about lying, cheating and stealing, and we have no patience for it’.

Sam Bankman-Fried, founder of the world’s biggest cryptocurrency exchange, has been found guilty of fraud and money laundering at the end of a month-long trial in New York.

Prosecutors had accused Bankman-Fried of lying to investors and lenders and stealing billions of dollars from cryptocurrency exchange FTX, helping to precipitate its collapse. They charged him with seven counts of fraud and money laundering.

He had pleaded not guilty to all the charges, maintaining that, while he had made mistakes, he had acted in good faith.

After the verdict Bankman-Fried’s lawyer Mark Cohen said: ‘We respect the jury’s decision. But we are very disappointed with the result’.

Mr Bankman-Fried reportedly maintains his innocence and will continue to vigorously fight the charges against him.

He now faces up to 115 years in prison.

UK holds interest rate at 5.25%

Bank of England

The Bank of England (BoE) announced its latest interest rate decision on Thursday, 2nd November 2023 to hold the bank rate at 5.25%.

The Bank of England’s (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 5-4 to maintain Bank Rate at 5.25%, the highest level in 15 years. However, four members preferred to increase the bank rate, to 5.5%. 

The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes by £100 billion over the next twelve months, to a total of £658 billion.

The BoE’s decision was influenced by the weak economic outlook, the high inflation rate, and the uncertainty surrounding the Covid-19 pandemic and the Brexit saga. 

The BoE said that the UK economy was likely to contract by 0.5% in Q3 2023, and that underlying growth in the second half of 2023 was also likely to be weaker than expected. The BoE also warned that there was a 50% chance of a recession in the next year (50/50). I think even I could guess with odds at 50/50.

2% target inflation to be hit by Q2 2025

The BoE also said that inflation, which was 6.7% in September 2023, was expected to peak at around 7% in Q4 2023, before falling back to the 2% target by 2025 Q2. The BoE said that the inflation spike was largely driven by temporary factors, such as higher energy and food prices, and that it would not respond to it.

The Bank of England was behind the curve calling it transitory. Can we trust any future forecasts?

The BoE’s decision was in line with the market expectations, as most analysts and investors had predicted that the BoE would keep rates on hold.

UK supercharged supercomputer AI project

UK AI project

The UK supercomputer project is a major initiative by the UK government to boost the country’s capabilities in artificial intelligence, weather forecasting, climate research and other highly important scientific research projects.

The project involves building and connecting two new supercomputers across the UK: Isambard-AI and Dawn.

Isambard-AI will be the UK’s most powerful supercomputer, with over 5,400 NVIDIA GH200 superchips, capable of 200 quadrillion calculations per second. It will be based at the University of Bristol and delivered by Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE). It will offer computing capacity never seen before in the UK for researchers and industry to make AI-driven breakthroughs in fields such as robotics, big data, climate research, and drug discovery.

Dawn will be a new supercomputer cluster at the University of Cambridge, delivered by a partnership with Dell and UK SME StackHPC. It will be powered by over 1,000 Intel chips that use water-cooling to reduce power consumption. It will target breakthroughs in fusion energy, healthcare and climate modelling.

The two supercomputers will form the government’s AI Research Resource (AIRR), which will give researchers access to resources with more than 30-times the capacity of the UK’s current largest public AI computing tools. The AIRR will support the work of the Frontier AI Taskforce and the AI Safety Institute, which are tasked with analysing and mitigating the risks posed by the most advanced forms of AI.

The UK supercomputer project is part of a £300 million investment from the government to create a new national Artificial Intelligence Research Resource for the country. The project is expected to be completed by summer 2024.

The investment comes as the UK hosts an AI safety summit in Bletchley Park, home of World War II codebreakers.

These announcements are all part of the £1 billion supercomputer plan launched in May 2023.

U.S. announces global action on AI safety as UK hosts AI summit

AI robot and human

The White House has announced what it is calling ‘the most significant actions ever taken by any government to advance the field of AI safety’.

Oh really! Coincidence or deliberate attempt to undermine the UK AI safety drive?

This news comes as the UK draws attention hosting a UK led AI summit. The U.S. wants to police and control the AI arena too as it does most other aspects of our life.

Biden order

An executive order from President Biden requires Artificial Intelligence AI developers to share safety results with the U.S. government. It is an attempt to place the U.S, at the centre of the global debate on AI governance.

However, this is a position the UK government has already engineered as the UK AI safety summit gets underway this week. The UK desires to place itself at the centre of AI governance.

U.S. executive order

The U.S. executive order from Biden suggests the U.S. fancies itself as the leader of global AI governance in terms of how to address such threats or does it simply want to stamp its authority in the AI world. It tried to do the same with cryptocurrencies but fundamentally failed.

U.S. measures include

  • Creating new safety and security standards for AI, including measures that require AI companies to share safety test results with the federal government.
  • Protecting consumer privacy, by creating guidelines that agencies can use to evaluate privacy techniques used in AI.
  • Helping to stop AI algorithms discriminate and creating best practices on the appropriate role of AI in the justice system.
  • Creating a program to evaluate potentially harmful AI related healthcare practices and creating resources on how educators can responsibly use AI tools
  • Working with international partners to implement AI standards around the world.

UK AI summit

The UK summit is referenced in the executive order. But it’s mentioned under the heading of ‘advancing American leadership abroad’ – indicating that the U.S. very clearly knows that it is the big player here alongside China.

The UK is determined to position itself as a global leader in the space of trying to minimise the risks posed by this powerful technology.

However, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris and top executives from the U.S. tech giants are arriving in the UK this week to discuss AI safety at the UK government’s AI Summit, which it has billed as a ‘world first’.

The summit, hosted by UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, will focus on the growing fears about the implications of so-called frontier AI. President of the EU Commission Ursula von der Leyen and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres will also be in attendance.

The UK is determined to position itself as a global leader in the space of trying to minimise the risks posed by this powerful technology.

But the U.S. as usual, will want to be in control…

UK plans to regulate crypto industry

Crypto

The UK government said it intends to bring a number of crypto asset activities under the same regulations that govern banks and other financial services firms.

The U.K. government has recently announced its plans to regulate the crypto industry with formal legislation by 2024. The government aims to protect consumers and grow the economy by ensuring robust, transparent, and fair standards for crypto activities. Some of the proposed measures include:

Regulating a broad suite of crypto activities, such as trading, lending, and custody services.

Strengthening rules for crypto trading platforms and requiring them to have admission and disclosure documents.

Introducing a crypto market abuse regime to prevent manipulation and fraud.

Enhancing oversight of stablecoins, which are digital tokens pegged to fiat currencies or other assets.

The government’s consultation paper is open for feedback until January 31, 2024. 

The government said it is committed to embracing technological change and innovation, while mitigating the most significant risks posed by crypto-assets.

Long-term investing for a long-term win!

Run the winners!

The idea is simple – pick good companies and hold them for the long-term.

Every time you buy shares in a company, you have purchased a piece of that company. And as a share owner, you are entitled to a ‘share’ of the profits. 

When it comes to investing, the goal is to find great companies, super companies. Buy shares in these companies at good prices. And then behave like owners of these companies and enjoy all of the successes.

Then… HOLD those shares for as long as possible – as if you own the company.

Ask yourself this question: ‘Would you buy the company?’

If the answer is yes – then go buy the shares.

Holding on as long as possible means that as long as you believe a company is still a great, you are more likely to keep the shares. But if something changes and it’s no longer a good choice, then it may be time to sell up.

The message here is to believe in a long-term investing strategy – because it works!

Short-Term versus Long-Term Investing

What you must not do is gamble on shares or any other high-risk activity or product. Share prices go up and they go down all the time. And in some cases, prices continue to move even after the stock market has closed!

Long term investing is a long-term winner!

Most people aren’t successful trying to ‘bet’ on when a share is going to go up or down especially short-term bets laced over minutes, hours, days or weeks. You can’t build wealth this way. In fact, there are plenty of traders out there with tragic stories to tell of failed ‘dumb money bets’. This is one of the fastest ways to lose your hard-earned cash; just don’t do it!

Platforms

There are many investing platforms available today that offer all sorts of trading solutions, from day trading, CFDs (contract for differences), spread betting, and more recently, cryptocurrencies. These instruments aren’t really designed to assist a long-term strategy but rather a short-term punt or bet. It’s an endless game where someone, somewhere is always left with nothing. These systems will happily take your money.

Please read the small print for these services. Do not be surprised to see disclosures that read something like, ‘75%+ of retail traders lose money’. It’s true, they do, and it could be you! Its far far easier to learn to become financially successful over the long term.

Long-Term Investing

Diversify

A hard truth about investing is that sometimes you’ll get it wrong, we all do.

The term for this is firm-specific risk (sometimes referred to as unsystematic risk). And every company in the world, even industry behemoths like Amazon, Apple or Microsoft get it wrong sometimes too. It’s unavoidable.

Fortunately, such risk can be mitigated through diversification. By owning a number of companies, the returns of one successful investment can easily offset the losses of several losers. 

It is wise to aim to build a portfolio over time of around say 10 – 20 quality businesses that you believe in. If you would be prepared to ‘buy’ the company; buying shares in it is the next best option.

Have Patience

In the short term, the movements of the stock market are chaotic, unpredictable or volatile even. But over a longer period of time, a recurring pattern starts to emerge among quality businesses.

Invest long-term
Select quality companies and hold them!

Companies can’t magically double their profits overnight. Building a massive multi-billion or even trillion-pound enterprise takes time. But the investors who have the patience and financial prudence to invest in quality businesses with such long-term potential can unlock enormous wealth.

Invest consistently

Getting started with investing is the first major step. The second is to keep investing over time. Little and often. It’s not easy to ‘free up’ cash but the more money you put to work by investing in stocks, the better your portfolio will do overall.

It is easy for me to suggest for you to go invest and spend your money, you most likely need the money spare to be able to go do this in the first place. So, a little invested spread over time will help open that ‘wealth’ door as time trickles by.

However, there is a caveat to this rule. You should only invest money you don’t need to live. Invest only what you have spare or can ‘free up’.

This is the way!

Long-term investing requires holding investments for years or even decades. This strategy works – this is the way! It’s easier said than done, but a little invested now will go a long way later. It’s also a matter of priorities and sacrifice to ‘free up’ some spare cash to invest instead of buying that new must have gadget (that you don’t really need).

Also, the last place you want to find yourself in is where you are forced to sell your investment before it’s had time to ‘climb’ because you’re short on cash. Or even worse, forced to sell your holding during a stock market crash when prices are extremely low. That’s an awful place to be – don’t go there if you can avoid it. However, buying after a crash is a different matter – but again, buy only good quality companies.

Let the winners run!
Select super good companies and hold them.

In short, invest consistently. But only the money you can afford. Don’t borrow, don’t use credit. Only invest what you can afford. It will work for you over time. But invest wisely in good high quality comapnies,

Don’t panic – volatility happens!

The stock market will crash; this is an inevitable fact of investing. Naive investors, who panic during these volatile times, often end up selling their shares that are either completely unaffected by the catalysts of the crash or perfectly capable of weathering the storm.

Just take a look at what happened with Apple in 2008. The tech giant fell by over 50% in the space of 12 months despite having no exposure to the U.S. housing market – even Apple got caught up in the sub-prime lending fiasco. And while the subsequent recession did impact sales, recessions, just like stock market crashes, are temporary. Apple share price recovered, as did many other top-notch companies too.

As horrible a stock market crash is, this is actually one of the best times to buy shares, especially when investing for the long-term. And these opportunities only come around once a decade or so. So, don’t miss out on these incredible opportunities to buy fantastic businesses at major discounts if you have the cash spare.

Let your winners run

Portfolio management is something every investor has to do. Yet a common mistake, is to sell shares in thriving companies too soon. This is usually an error – bear in mind that winners have a tendency to keep winning! But I get that – I understand you may want to sell as you need the money or want some of your investment back. Try and hold if you can – but not at any odds. Keep a close eye on the market – sentiment will change and that will alter the markets direction.

Let the winners run!
Let the winners run!

Having said that, there is an exception. It’s perfectly possible for a company that was just 2% of your portfolio to grow to 20% or even higher. In these scenarios, it can be wise to sell a few shares to reduce the risk of being over-exposed to a single investment. 

But otherwise, let your winners win. LET THE WINNERS RUN!

You can do it!

There is no such thing as risk-free investing, even with a long-term approach. But many of these risk factors can be mitigated through strategies like diversification. Try and manage your portfolio, add stop losses and follow your investments through the newswires.

Remember to always do your research! No short cuts!

RESEARCH, RESEARCH, and even more RESEARCH!

U.S multi trillion-dollar debt

U.S. Debt

The amount of U.S. debt is a complex and controversial topic that has different perspectives, implications and opinion.

According to the U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data, the national debt of the United States was $33.52 trillion as of 23rd October 2023.

This includes both the debt held by the public, which is the amount the federal government owes to outside entities such as foreign governments, corporations, and individuals, and the debt held by federal government accounts, which is the amount the federal government owes to itself, such as trust funds and special funds.

Is U.S. debt a problem?

Some argue that the U.S. debt is a problem because it increases the risk of a fiscal crisis, reduces the government’s ability to respond to emergencies, imposes a burden on future generations, and lowers the nation’s creditworthiness.

Others contend that the U.S. debt is not a problem because the U.S. can always print more money, (isn’t this why there is so much debt already)? Borrow at low interest rates, (not easy in the current climate), stimulate economic growth, and benefit from its status as the world’s reserve currency.

So, is U.S. debt a problem or not? It depends on various factors such as the size, composition, and sustainability of the debt, as well as the economic and political context in which it operates.

Most analysts and policymakers agree that the U.S. debt is projected to grow faster than the economy in the long-term, which could pose significant challenges for fiscal policy and economic stability. Therefore, it is important to understand the causes and consequences of the U.S. debt and to find solutions that balance the trade-offs between spending and income.

Debt in relation to GDP

The U.S. debt of GDP was estimated to be around 120% to 130% in 2023.

The U.S. debt of GDP is the ratio of the total public debt of the United States to its gross domestic product (GDP), which measures the size of the economy. 

U.S. ten-year treasury yield breaches 5% for the first time since 2007

Treasury yield

The U.S. Treasury yields are the interest rates that the U.S. government pays to borrow money for different periods of time.

The 10-year Treasury yield is one of the most important indicators of the state of the economy and the expectations of inflation and growth. On 23rd October 2023, the 10-year Treasury yield rose above 5% for the first time since 2007, as investors increasingly accepted that interest rates will stay higher for longer and that the U.S. government will further increase its borrowing to cover its deficits.

Significant

This is a significant milestone, as it reflects the market’s view that the Federal Reserve will maintain elevated interest rates to control inflation and that the U.S. economy will remain resilient despite the challenges posed by the Covid-19 pandemic, geopolitical tensions and environmental issues.

The higher yield also means that the government will have to pay more to service its debt, which could affect its fiscal policy and spending priorities. The higher yield also affects other borrowing costs, such as mortgages, student loans, and corporate bonds, which could have implications for consumers and businesses.

10 Year Yield

The 10-year Treasury yield is influenced by many factors, such as supply and demand, inflation expectations, economic growth, monetary policy, and global events. The yield has been rising steadily since it hit a record low of 0.5% in March 2020, when the pandemic triggered a flight to safety and a massive stimulus from the Fed. Since then, the yield has been driven by the recovery of the economy, the surge in inflation, the reversal of the Fed’s bond-buying program, and the increase in the government’s borrowing needs.

Yield curve

The ten-year yield is closely watched by investors, analysts and policymakers as it provides a benchmark for valuing other assets and assessing the outlook for the economy. The yield is also used to calculate the yield curve, which is the difference between short-term and long-term Treasury yields.

The shape of the yield curve can indicate the market’s expectations of future interest rates and economic activity.

Artwork impression of computer screen: U.S. ten-year treasury yield breaches 5% for the first time since 2007

A steep yield curve means that long-term yields are much higher than short-term yields, which suggests that investors expect higher inflation and growth in the future. A flat or inverted yield curve means that long-term yields are lower than or equal to short-term yields, which implies that investors expect lower inflation and growth or even a recession.

The current yield curve is steepening, as long-term yields are rising faster than short-term yields. This indicates that investors are anticipating higher inflation and growth in the long run, but also that they are concerned about the sustainability of the government’s fiscal position and the impact of higher interest rates on the economy.

Indicators

The 10-year Treasury yield is an important indicator of the state of the economy and the expectations of inflation and growth. It has reached a level that has not been seen since before the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. This reflects the market’s view that interest rates will stay higher for longer and that the government will increase its borrowing to cover its deficits. The higher yield also affects other borrowing costs and asset prices, which could have implications for consumers and businesses.

The yield is influenced by many factors and is closely watched by investors, policymakers, and analysts. A 5% yield is a worry for the market, inflation, interest rates, geo-political risks and recession are the others, that’s enough!

Global electricity energy demanded by BIG tech

Electricity infrastructure

Many large tech companies are planning to create their own energy supply or source power from 100% renewable generators. 

This is mainly because they have high electricity consumption, especially for their data centres, and they want to reduce their carbon footprint and achieve net-zero emissions targets.

BIG tech companies that are generating their own energy or investing in renewable energy projects

Apple

The company claims that it is already powered by 100% renewable energy across its global operations, including its data centres, offices, and retail storesIt also plans to become carbon neutral across its entire supply chain by 2030Apple has invested in various renewable energy projects, such as solar farms in China, wind turbines in Denmark, and biogas fuel cells in the U.S.

Google

The company has been matching its annual electricity consumption with renewable energy purchases since 2017, and aims to run on carbon-free energy 24/7 by 2030Google has also been investing in renewable energy projects, such as offshore wind farms in Europe, solar plants in Chile, and geothermal power in Nevada .

Amazon

The company has committed to reaching net-zero carbon emissions by 2040, and to power its operations with 100% renewable energy by 2025Amazon has also been investing in renewable energy projects, such as solar rooftops in India, wind farms in Ireland, and hydroelectric plants in Sweden. 

Estimated current electricity demand

The global electricity energy demand is the amount of electricity that the world needs in a given day. It can be calculated by multiplying the average global electricity demand in GW by 24 hours. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the average global electricity demand in 2020 was about 3 TW or 3 000 GW. This means that the global electricity energy demand in 2020 was about 72000 GWh or 72 TWh per day.

BIG tech companies are generating their own energy or investing in renewable energy projects – how green is it really?

However, this is an average value, and the actual demand may vary depending on the season, time of day, weather, and other factors.

Energy requirement

The global electricity energy demand is expected to increase in the future, as population grows and living standards improve. The IEA projects that the average global electricity demand will reach 3.8 TW or 3 800 GW by 2030 and 5.2 TW or 5 200 GW by 2050 in the Announced Pledges Scenario, which reflects the full implementation of net-zero emissions targets by some countries and regions. This implies that the global electricity energy demand will reach 91 200 GWh or 91.2 TWh per day by 2030 and 124 800 GWh or 124.8 TWh per day by 2050.

Energy sources to change

The sources of electricity generation will also change in the future, as renewable technologies such as solar PV and wind become more dominant and coal use declines. The IEA reports that the main sources of electricity generation in 2020 were coal (34%), natural gas (23%), hydropower (16%), nuclear (10%), wind (8%), solar PV (4%), biofuels and waste (3%), and other renewables (2%). In the Announced Pledges Scenario, renewables in electricity generation rise from 28% in 2021 to about 50% by 2030 and 80% by 2050.

The world counts.

Desert location for energy and power generation

Electricity infrastructure

Will these projects alter the world weather pattern?

According to a study, installing large-scale wind and solar farms in the Sahara desert could increase rainfall and vegetation in the region. The researchers simulated the effects of covering 20% of the Sahara with solar panels and wind turbines and found that it would trigger a feedback loop of more monsoon rain and more plant growth.

This could have benefits for the local environment and the global climate, as well as providing a huge amount of clean energy for the world.

Could it also create a detrimental effect to the ecosystem too?

10.5 GW solar energy

The desert project would produce 10.5 GW of solar power and 3 GW of wind power. However, there are also challenges and uncertainties involved, such as the cost, feasibility, and environmental impacts of such a massive undertaking.

The Sahara is a desert on the African continent. With an area of 9,200,000 square kilometres, it is the largest hot desert in the world and the third-largest desert overall, smaller only than the deserts of Antarctica and the northern Arctic.

Daily global electricity energy demand

The global electricity energy demand is the amount of electricity that the world needs in a given day. It can be calculated by multiplying the average global electricity demand in GW by 24 hours. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the average global electricity demand in 2020 was about 3 TW or 3 000 GW. This means that the global electricity energy demand in 2020 was about 72 000 GWh or 72 TWh per day. However, this is an average value, and the actual demand may vary depending on the season, time of day, weather, and other factors.

The global electricity energy demand is expected to increase in the future, as population grows and living standards improve. The IEA projects that the average global electricity demand will reach 3.8 TW or 3 800 GW by 2030 and 5.2 TW or 5 200 GW by 2050 in the Announced Pledges Scenario, which reflects the full implementation of net-zero emissions targets by some countries and regions. This implies that the global electricity energy demand will reach 91 200 GWh or 91.2 TWh per day by 2030 and 124 800 GWh or 124.8 TWh per day by 2050.

Energy sources

The sources of electricity generation will also change in the future, as renewable technologies such as solar PV and wind become more dominant and coal use declines. The IEA reports that the main sources of electricity generation in 2020 were coal (34%), natural gas (23%), hydropower (16%), nuclear (10%), wind (8%), solar PV (4%), biofuels and waste (3%), and other renewables (2%).

The researchers simulated the effects of covering 20% of the Sahara with solar panels and wind turbines and found that it would trigger a feedback loop of more monsoon rain and more plant growth.

In the Announced Pledges Scenario, renewables in electricity generation rise from 28% in 2021 to about 50% by 2030 and 80% by 2050.

Powering the UK from energy created in Morocco

European banks in discussion with cryptocurrency companies

Banks and crypto

Bitstamp

Bitstamp has reportedly disclosed its ongoing discussions with a number of European banks about assisting them in launching cryptocurrency services. These discussions are expected to come to fruition in early 2024.

Bitstamp’s Negotiations with Top European Banks

Bitstamp’s negotiations underscore the growing acceptance of digital assets within the European financial sector.

This news comes at a time when the European Union is actively advancing its regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies, known as Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA).

It aims at facilitating the entry of traditional financial institutions into the digital asset space.

Cryptocurrency and its slow mainstream adoption

Cybersecurity

Hack attack!

Cybersecurity is a very important and relevant topic in today’s world. It refers to the practice of protecting systems, networks, and programs from digital attacks that can harm individuals and organizations.

Cyberattacks will all have malicious intent, such as accessing, changing, or destroying sensitive information; extorting money from users via ransomware; or interrupting normal business processes.

Cybersecurity aims to prevent or mitigate these attacks by using various technologies, measures, and practices.

There are many types of cybersecurity, depending on the domain or layer of IT infrastructure that needs to be protected.

Critical infrastructure security

This protects the computer systems, applications, networks, data and digital assets that a society depends on for national security, economic health and public safety. For example, the power grid, the water supply, the transportation system, the health care system, etc. 

In the United States, there are some guidelines and frameworks for IT providers in this area, such as the NIST cybersecurity framework and the CISA guidance.

Network security

This prevents unauthorized access to network resources and detects and stops cyberattacks and network security breaches in progress. For example, firewalls, antivirus software, encryption, VPNs, etc. Network security also ensures that authorized users have secure access to the network resources they need, when they need them.

Application security

This protects applications from cyberattacks by ensuring that they are designed, developed, tested, and maintained with security in mind. For example, code reviews, vulnerability scanning, penetration testing, secure coding practices, etc. Application security also involves educating users about safe and responsible use of applications.

Cyberattacks will all have malicious intent, such as accessing, changing, or destroying sensitive information; extorting money from users via ransomware; or interrupting normal business processes.

There are many more types of cybersecurity, such as cloud security, endpoint security, data security, identity and access management (IAM), etc. Each type of cybersecurity has its own challenges and solutions.

Companies to watch

Cybersecurity companies such as CrowdStrike, Okta, Zscaler and Palo Alto Networks are valuable assets with businesses willing to pay good money to protect against hackers.

Zscaler

Palo Alto Networks

Crowdstrike

Okta

NOTE: Always do your own very careful research – none of these ‘suggestions’ are ‘recommendations’.

Remember: RESEARCH! RESEARCH! RESEARCH!

Is the stock market on the verge of a big go green buy signal for a ‘mini’ rally?

Buy signal?

Inflation and interest rate correlation

The stock market is influenced by many factors, such as economic data, earnings reports, geopolitical events, investor sentiment, and technical indicators. 

Some analysts have suggested that the recent sell-off in the market may have created some oversold conditions that could lead to a relief rally or a bounce back in the near future.

Stochastics oscillation

One of the technical indicators that some traders use to identify buy and sell signals is the stochastics oscillator, which measures the momentum of price movements. The stochastics oscillator consists of two lines: the %K line and the %D line.

The %K line shows the current position of the price relative to its high and low range over a certain period of time, usually 14 days. The %D line is a moving average of the %K line, usually a three-day average. When the %K line crosses above the %D line, it is considered a bullish signal, indicating that the price may be reversing from a downtrend to an uptrend. 

When the %K line crosses below the %D line, it is considered a bearish signal, indicating that the price may be reversing from an uptrend to a downtrend.

80/20 analysis

The stochastics oscillator also has two levels: 20 and 80. When the %K line falls below 20, it means that the price is oversold, meaning that it has fallen too much and may be due for a rebound. When the %K line rises above 80, it means that the price is overbought, meaning that it has risen too much and may be due for a pullback.

Careful research before buying is paramount to successful trade

The FTSE 100 index, which tracks the performance of 100 large companies listed on the London Stock Exchange, has recently fallen below 20 on the stochastics oscillator, indicating that it may be oversold and ready for a bounce back.

No guarantee

However, this is not a guarantee, as other factors may also affect the market direction. Therefore, it is advisable to use stochastics in conjunction with other tools, such as trend lines, support and resistance levels, moving averages, and other technical indicators. 

Additionally, some traders use different settings for the stochastics oscillator, such as changing the time period or the smoothing factor, to suit their own trading style and preferences. Always though, long term investing produces far better results over time as it smooths out the ‘ups and downs’.

In summary, there is no definitive answer to whether the stock market is building up to a major buy signal again right now, as different traders will have different opinions and strategies and views. But one possible way to gauge the market sentiment and momentum is to use the stochastics oscillator, which can provide some clues about potential reversals and opportunities in the market.

Note

This indicator should not be used in isolation, but rather in combination with other tools and analysis – it is just that, a tool. Good well-established companies that have good track records over many many years are a good place to look for long term returns. But even then, do your thorough research first.

So, what next?

The interest-rate/inflation correlation is crucial, because nominal company earnings grow faster when inflation is higher. That does not mean investors should welcome inflation, since higher inflation also means that future years’ earnings must be discounted at a higher rate.

But for many behavioural reasons, investors place greater weight on the negative impact of the greater discount rate than on the higher nominal earnings-growth rate that typically accompanies higher inflation.

Inflation illusion

Economists refer to this investor error as ‘inflation illusion’. Perhaps the seminal study documenting how this error impacts the stock market was conducted by Jay Ritter of the University of Florida and Richard Warr of North Carolina State University. They found that investors systematically undervalue stocks in the presence of high inflation.

Investors will make the same error, in reverse, when inflation and interest rates start to come down. That’s why the foundation of a likely big buy signal is currently being built.

Maybe the buy signal is about to go green for a quick buying opportunity. But be careful, in this environment it can switch again very quickly.

Remember, always do your own research carefully before buying.

Read: Bull market 1982 -1999 and decline of inflation. Jay Ritter of the University of Florida and Richard Warr of North Carolina State University.

RESEARCH! RESEARCH! RESEARCH!

‘We shape our buildings; thereafter, they shape us.’

Liberty

Winston Churchill 1874 – 1965

Sir Winston Leonard Spencer Churchill

He was a British statesman, soldier, and writer who served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom twice, from 1940 to 1945 during the Second World War, and again from 1951 to 1955.

Great statesman

He is considered one of the best-known, and some say one of the greatest statesman of the 20th century. He was also a Nobel Prize winner in literature for his speeches and books. 

He is famous for his inspiring quotes, such as ‘Never give in, never give in, never, never, never, never—in nothing, great or small, large or petty—never give in except to convictions of honour and good sense.

Nikkei 225 all time high of 1989

Nikkei 225 all time high of 1989

The Nikkei 225 index, is a stock market index for the Tokyo Stock Exchange. 

The Nikkei 225 reached its all-time high on 29 December 1989, during the peak of the Japanese asset price bubble, when it reached an intra-day high of 38,957.44, before closing at 38,915.87. This was after a decade-long bull run throughout the 1980s, when the index grew sixfold.

Since then, the index has never surpassed this level, and has experienced several periods of decline and stagnation. As of October 4, 2023, the index closed at 30,526.88, down by 2.28% from the previous day and 8389 points off its all-time high.

Will it ever breach the high of 1989?

Nikkei 225 all time high of 1989

Einstein was right with his theory about antimatter and gravity

Einstein theory

According to recent news and scientific reports, Einstein was right again about how antimatter responds to gravity.

Antimatter is the opposite of ordinary matter, and it is very rare in the natural universe. Scientists have created antimatter in the laboratory and observed its behaviour under controlled conditions.

Antihydrogen Laser Physics Apparatus (ALPHA)

One of the experiments that tested Einstein’s theory of general relativity was the Antihydrogen Laser Physics Apparatus (ALPHA) at CERN in Switzerland.

The researchers used antihydrogen, which is the antimatter counterpart of hydrogen, the lightest element. They showed that antihydrogen falls downward due to gravity, just like ordinary hydrogen. 

This confirms that matter and antimatter react to gravity in a similar way, as predicted by Einstein more than a hundred years ago.

Thank you Albert.

Gold as a safe haven investment

Gold

Gold value has been slipping in recent months of 2023 – here are some of the reasons gold prices fluctuate.

Dynamic market

Gold is a precious metal that is often seen as a safe haven investment and a store of value, but it is also subject to the forces of supply and demand, as well as many other factors that affect its price.

The gold market is complex and dynamic, and the price of gold can change quickly and unpredictably. Therefore, it is important to do your own research and analysis before investing in gold or any other asset.

Always do your research! Remember, RESEARCH! RESEARCH! RESEARCH!

Gold price from 2005 – September 2023

The production costs of gold

The cost of mining, refining, and transporting gold can influence the supply and the price of gold. If the production costs are high, the gold miners may reduce their output or increase their selling price, which can affect the market balance and the gold price.

Money supply

The amount of money in circulation can affect the value of the currency and the inflation rate, which in turn can affect the demand and the price of gold. Generally, when the money supply increases, the currency value decreases and the inflation rate increases, which can boost the demand and the price of gold as a hedge.

Geopolitical stability

The political and economic events around the world can affect the market sentiment and the risk appetite of investors, which can influence the demand and the price of gold. Generally, when there is uncertainty, instability, or conflict, investors tend to seek safe-haven assets such as gold, which can increase the demand and the price of gold.

Jewellery and industrial demand

The demand for gold from the jewellery and industrial sectors can affect the market balance and the price of gold. Jewelry is the largest source of gold demand, especially in countries like India and China, where gold is culturally and traditionally valued. Industrial demand for gold comes from its use in various electronic and medical devices, such as smartphones, computers, and dentistry. The changes in the consumer preferences, the income levels, the technological innovations, and the environmental regulations can affect the demand and the price of gold from these sectors.

Gold price 3rd October 2023

Central bank actions

The actions of central banks around the world can affect the supply and the demand of gold, as well as the value of the currency and the interest rates, which can influence the price of gold. Central banks hold gold reserves as part of their foreign exchange assets, and they can buy or sell gold to diversify their portfolios, to manage their liquidity, or to intervene in the currency markets. Central banks can also affect the price of gold indirectly through their monetary policies, such as setting the interest rates, printing money, or buying bonds, which can affect the inflation expectations, the currency value, and the opportunity cost of holding gold.

Strength of the U.S. dollar

Gold is priced in U.S. dollars in most of the major trading exchanges around the world, so when the dollar rises against other currencies, gold becomes more expensive for foreign investors, reducing the demand for it. The U.S. dollar has been strengthening since, partly due to the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening policy that has raised the interest rates and the attractiveness of U.S. Treasury securities.

Rise of global equities

Gold is often considered a hedge against inflation, currency devaluation, and the failure of other financial assets, but when the stock market is performing well, investors tend to shift their money from gold to equities, seeking higher returns and growth potential. The global stock market has been rallying since the bottom of the Covid-19 pandemic in March 2020, boosted by the roll-out of vaccines, the fiscal stimulus, and the economic recovery.

The Krugerrand

The Krugerrand is a South African coin, first minted on 3rd July 1967

Krugerrand gold coins are a type of bullion coin that were first minted in 1967 by the South African Mint. They are made of 22 karat gold and have a diameter of 32.77 mm and a thickness of 2.84mm. The obverse side features the portrait of Paul Kruger, the former president of the South African Republic, and the reverse side depicts a springbok, the national animal of South Africa. The name ‘krugerrand’ is a combination of ‘Kruger’ and ‘rand’, the currency of South Africa.

Krugerrand gold coins are popular among investors and collectors because they have a high gold content and are easy to trade. They are also legal tender in South Africa, although they do not have a fixed face value.

Decline of inflation expectations

Gold is also seen as a protection against the erosion of purchasing power caused by inflation, but when inflation expectations are low or falling, gold loses some of its appeal as an inflation hedge. The inflation expectations have been declining in recent months, partly due to the easing of supply chain disruptions, the moderation of energy prices, and the fading of the base effects from the previous year.

These are some of the main factors that have been weighing on the gold price lately, but there may be other reasons as well, such as the speculations, the market sentiments, and the geopolitical events that can influence the supply and demand of gold.

Magnificent 7 tech’ stocks haven’t been this cheap since 2017

Magnificent 7 tech stocks

The Magnificent Seven tech stocks

These are the seven largest U.S. listed companies in the technology sector.

Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Nvidia, Tesla and Meta Platforms

According to a report released Monday 2nd October 2023, these tech’ stocks have seen their valuation drop relative to the median stock in the S&P 500, making them more attractive for investors. The report says that the Magnificent 7 trade at 1.3 times their PEG ratio (price-to-earnings-to-long-term growth), versus 1.9 for the median S&P 500 stock. 

This is the cheapest valuation in over six years – time to buy yet?

The report also highlights some positive drivers for these stocks, such as their strong sales growth, their ability to beat expectations, and their resilience to rising interest rates.

However, some analysts also warn that the dominance of these stocks could pose a risk for the broader market if something bad happens to tech’.