China initiates investigation into Nvidia as the microchip battle rumbles on

Tech tug 'o' war

China has reportedly initiated a probe into Nvidia, the US computer chip manufacturer, over purported breaches of anti-monopoly regulations.

The company’s shares fell by over 3% following the announcement, signalling the latest development in the ongoing tech conflict between the U.S. and China over the profitable semiconductor market.

Over recent weeks, the U.S. imposed stricter restrictions on the sale of certain exports to Chinese firms, and the dispute over the industry is anticipated to persist as Donald Trump returns to the White House.

Established in 1993, the company initially gained recognition for producing computer chips designed to process graphics, especially for video games.

Today, the tech giant leads in developing chips that drive artificial intelligence (AI), boasting a market value exceeding $3 trillion.

Its increasing control over the market has drawn scrutiny from competition regulators in the U.S. and internationally. Recently, the firm confirmed that it had been approached by regulatory bodies globally, including those in the U.S., UK, European Union, South Korea, and China.

The business finds itself at the centre of escalating geopolitical and economic tensions between the U.S. and China, with both nations vying for supremacy in advanced chip technology.

Nvidia disclosed last month that sales to China, including Hong Kong, represented approximately 13% of this year’s revenue to date.

However, this figure has declined following Americas enhancement of restrictions on sophisticated technology exports to Chinese companies, citing national security concerns. Chinese state media reported that Beijing had initiated an investigation.

The inquiry alleges that Nvidia breached commitments established during its 2020 acquisition of Mellanox Technologies, a smaller entity.

This development follows the U.S.’s recent intensification of restrictions, affecting sales to 140 entities, including Chinese chip companies such as Piotech and SiCarrier, barring special authorisation.

In retaliation, China reportedly imposed stringent new regulations on the export of crucial minerals to the U.S., such as antimony, gallium, and germanium. Observers have highlighted the significance of these measures, noting they specifically target the U.S rather than imposing general restrictions.

Bitcoin breaks the $100,000 barrier

In a historic moment for the cryptocurrency world, Bitcoin has finally breached the $100,000 mark.

This milestone, reached on 5th December 2024, signifies a notable triumph for Bitcoin enthusiasts and investors who have endured the market’s volatility over the years.

The cryptocurrency value surge past $100,000 followed Donald Trump’s election as President of the United States. Trump’s favorable stance on crypto and his commitment to deregulate the sector are believed to have enhanced investor confidence. The momentum was further increased by his decision to nominate Paul Atkins, a recognized proponent of cryptocurrency, as the new chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Since the creation of the first Bitcoin ETF there have been massive inflows invested in this asset helping to push Bitcoin ever higher.

Bitcoin’s ascent to $100,000 has been tumultuous. Beginning the year at approximately $38,505, the cryptocurrency has experienced an impressive 155% increase to date. The surge was especially notable in the fortnight after Trump’s victory, with Bitcoin’s value soaring by about 45%.

Bitcoin’s ascent has triggered a ripple effect throughout the wider cryptocurrency market, now valued at a combined $3.78 trillion. This upsurge has reinforced Bitcoin’s preeminence in the digital asset arena and garnered considerable interest from institutional investors.

Despite the festive atmosphere, some analysts warn that Bitcoin’s well-known volatility is still worrisome. Although numerous investors have realized significant profits, the asset’s high-risk profile may not be appropriate for all. Nevertheless, the prevailing mood within the cryptocurrency community is one of optimism, fueled by the expectation that the incoming administration will create a regulatory climate more conducive to digital assets.

Bitcoin’s record-breaking streak continues, signaling a bright future for the renowned cryptocurrency. Its evolution from a peer-to-peer electronic cash system to a trillion-dollar asset highlights the revolutionary impact of blockchain technology.

U.S. stocks have a November to remember as Dow touches 45,000

High Dow

On Friday 29th November 2024, the Dow Jones reached a new record high, closing at 44,910 points after breaching 45,000 temporarily

This formed part of a wider market surge that led the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite to also hit record peaks. It concluded a remarkable month for the stock market, marked by the Dow achieving its most substantial monthly gain of the year, all thanks to Trump winning the U.S. election.

In November, the S&P 500 experienced a 5.73% rise, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded a notable 7.54% increase, both marking their most robust monthly performances for the year. Concurrently, the Nasdaq Composite enjoyed a 6.21% surge, its largest monthly gain since May.

Recently, a host of factors have pumped up investors’ sentiment for stocks. 

The presidential election concluded with Donald Trump decisively securing the presidency. This eliminated any uncertainty, which is often disliked by investors. Additionally, Trump’s support for the stock market, tax cuts, cryptocurrency, and deregulation is well-received by investors.

The U.S. economy expanded at an annualised rate of 2.8% in the third quarter. Although the gross domestic product is projected to grow by 1.31% in the fourth quarter, this still signifies an expansion, countering concerns of a potential recession hitting the U.S. economy.

Even a slowing growth rate can have its advantages. It provides the U.S. Federal Reserve with greater motivation to implement a second rate cut this year at its December 2024 meeting, potentially boosting economic activity.

Moreover, the seasonal strength of stocks in November 2024 has infused investors with a sense of optimism.

Entering December 2024, it’s challenging to disregard the current bull market, given the favourable conditions.

U.S. stocks are experiencing a robust year-end rally, partly due to short sellers being compelled to purchase stocks to close their positions as the year concludes.

This surge of buying could propel the S&P 500 to reach 6,300, suggesting a 5% increase for December 2024 and a 32.1% rise throughout 2024, surpassing the 24.2% gain seen in 2023.

Additionally, there’s the significant boost in cryptocurrency values, often referred to as the ‘Trump pump,’ – and this too is currently underway.

Dow Jones one-day chart as of 29th November 2024

Dow Jones one-day chart as of 29th November 2024

Bitcoin’s flirt with $100,000 may be one bitcoin too far

Bitcoin

Bitcoin flirted with the $100,000 mark, coming within less than $1,000 of that psychological threshold. However, it failed to breach this peak, falling back to as low as $90,702. on Tuesday 26th November 2024. It has since rallied, trading at approximately $96,697 early on 29th November 2024. But still off the $100,000 barrier.

Investors taking profits

One factor contributing to the fall was investors capitalising on Bitcoin’s exceptionally high price, which increased the supply of Bitcoin. Long-term holders began to release substantial quantities of Bitcoin during the recent surge.

However, there are deeper reasons why some strategists remain uncertain about Bitcoin’s ability to reach the six-figure milestone. The $100,000 mark seems to have become a significant obstacle, if not an outright barrier, to further increases.

Leveraged to the hilt

Indeed, the recent surge in Bitcoin’s value could be instilling a misleading sense of confidence among investors. Viewing Bitcoin as a speculative bet or a means to achieve returns, it appears that investors are flocking to Bitcoin primarily for potential capital gains rather than its intrinsic value or practical applications.

The recent introduction of options for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds could be influential. Options provide investors with a way to speculate on Bitcoin’s price fluctuations without the need to invest in Bitcoin directly.

It’s leveraged to the hilt and there most likely will be a correction anytime soon.

That being said, a correction does not equate to lasting deflation. Should even a portion of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s commitments to the cryptocurrency sector materialise, the $100,000 mark might not represent a peak, but merely another milestone that Bitcoin surpasses during its triumphant ascent.

But remember, in my opinion and for what it’s worth – it is just a punt, not an investment.

Bitcoin one-day chart as of 29th November 2024 (11:16 am)

Bitcoin one-day chart as of 29th November 2024 (11:16 am)

Has BIG tech just bought the most pro-crypto U.S. Congress ever?

DOGE

In a significant turn of events, the 2024 U.S. elections have ushered in what many are calling the most pro-crypto Congress in history.

The significant shift in political dynamics is largely due to the substantial financial support from the cryptocurrency industry, which has strategically funded political campaigns to foster a legislative environment favourable to digital assets.

Political Action Committees

Recognising the existential threat of strict regulations, the cryptocurrency industry has deployed unprecedented resources to sway election outcomes. Data from the Federal Election Commission reveals that crypto-related Political Action Committees (PACs) and other industry groups have raised over $245 million. These funds were channeled to endorse candidates favourable to the industry’s interests and to challenge those critical of it.

Money talked

A prominent example is Bernie Moreno’s election to the U.S. Senate. Moreno, a former car salesman with minimal political experience, succeeded in defeating Democratic incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown, a known critic of the cryptocurrency industry. Moreno’s campaign was bolstered by an impressive $40 million from the cryptocurrency sector, underscoring the industry’s commitment to influencing legislative representation.

Powerful crypto lobby

The crypto lobby’s success is credited to its tactical approach, which extends beyond post-election lobbying to active involvement in the electoral process. This strategy included targeting pivotal states and backing candidates supportive or neutral toward the industry. Consequently, Congress now includes nearly 300 pro-crypto legislators, granting the sector substantial sway over legislative priorities.

The ramifications of this development are significant. With a Congress inclined toward cryptocurrency, the industry anticipates more accommodating regulations and clearer guidelines on matters like digital asset classification and the creation of regulatory sandboxes. This shift could be a catalyst for innovation and expansion within the cryptocurrency domain.

Concerns

This development has also sparked concerns regarding the impact of money on politics. Critics contend that the cryptocurrency industry’s electoral success highlights the urgency for campaign finance reform to curb the potential of industries to purchase political sway. They caution that such tendencies could compromise the democratic process and result in policies that prioritise special interests above the common welfare.

As the newly elected Congress assumes power, attention is focused on its approach to the intricate domain of cryptocurrency regulation. The ensuing months are pivotal in deciding if the industry’s political contributions will yield substantial advantages for the cryptocurrency sector and its participants.

Whichever way you package this, for or against – money buys political influence. The bias is obvious. It likely will be a bad thing in the long-term. Let’s hope it helps the people and not just the profits of big business.

We’ll see.

And don’t forget, the biggest tech and business influence in the new U.S. government (to be) just happens to be the richest person in the world, Elon Musk. He’s in charge of the newly announced Department of Government Efficiency – DOGE.

Business and not just money is in charge of the U.S. government with very few obstacles in its way!

This ‘influential’ purchase is big!

Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler’s resignation is good news for crypto

Bitcoin

Bitcoin reaches a new record high, nearing the $100,000 mark as the cryptocurrency rally marches on.

Other altcoins are rallying too, basking in the aftermath of the SEC resignation news.

Gary Gensler, Chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission, will step down on 20th January 2025 (Trumps inauguration day), an announcement made by the SEC on Thursday 21st November 2024, which clears the path for President-elect Donald Trump to appoint a more crypto friendly successor.

During Gensler’s tenure, the SEC engaged in numerous high-profile conflicts with the cryptocurrency industry, including a lawsuit against Grayscale over Bitcoin ETFs – a case Grayscale won, leading to a significant influx of capital into these funds since their inception in January.

The SEC has also pursued legal action against several major digital asset firms concerning their crypto dealings, such as Coinbase, with varying outcomes.

Additionally, the SEC has been in conflict with Tesla CEO Elon Musk, particularly regarding his acquisition of the social media company Twitter, now known as X, for $44 billion in 2022. The commission is currently seeking sanctions against Musk for failing to appear for court-mandated testimony related to this matter.

Under Gensler’s leadership, the SEC has scrutinised Musk’s adherence to a previous settlement that mandated a securities lawyer review certain Tesla-related social media posts before they were published.

Musk, a vocal critic of the SEC who supported Trump’s election campaign with his time and a donation of at least $130 million and campaigned alongside him, is poised to join the incoming administration as a co-leader of the newly proposed Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

With Gensler’s impending departure and the upcoming expiration of the terms for two other commissioners, Trump will have the chance to significantly influence the future composition of the SEC.

A green light for crypto investors, but a worry (maybe) for the retail trader long-term?

Bitcoin one-day chart as of 22nd November 2024 (09:49am GMT) – Snapshot

Bitcoin one-day chart as of 22nd November 2024 (09:49am GMT)

Bitcoin one-year chart as of 22nd November 2024 (09:51am GMT) – Snapshot

Bitcoin one-year chart as of 22nd November 2024 (09:51am GMT)

Nvidia beats on Q3 earnings but shares still slide

Next generation AI chips

Is Nvidia competing with itself now?

Nvidia third-quarter earnings beat expectations, but shares dropped 2.5% in extended trading.

The company’s revenue surged 94% year on year to $35.08 billion in the quarter ended 27th October 2024.

Net income climbed 109% from a year ago to $19.3 billion. Sales of Nvidia’s next-generation chip Blackwell, will be limited by supply, not demand, the company reportedly said.

Nvidia didn’t disappoint in terms of third-quarter revenue and net income, but it wasn’t enough for Wall Street. The forecast for the fourth quarter indicates a year-over-year growth of approximately 70%, marking a deceleration from the 265% growth experienced in the corresponding period the previous year.

Nvidia has emerged as the main beneficiary of the current artificial intelligence surge. Its shares have almost tripled in 2024, positioning it as the most valuable publicly traded company.

Numerous end-customers of Nvidia, including Microsoft, Oracle, and OpenAI, have begun receiving the company’s latest AI chip, known as Blackwell.

Nvidia one-year share price chart as of 20th November 2024

Nvidia one-year share price chart

The share price decline appears to be due to reserved guidance for Q4, with Nvidia’s management anticipating supply challenges for its next-generation Blackwell GPU. Investors were hoping for a more optimistic forecast, but the cautious outlook was disappointing.

It’s interesting to see how even strong earnings can sometimes lead to a drop in share prices if the future outlook doesn’t meet investor expectations.

Are U.S. Stocks Overvalued?

The U.S. stock market has been a topic of much debate among investors and analysts, especially regarding its valuation levels. As of the end of 2024, several indicators suggest that U.S. stocks might be overvalued.

Buffet indicator

One of the most watched metrics is the Buffett Indicator, named after the legendary investor Warren Buffett. This indicator compares the total market capitalisation of U.S. stocks to the country’s gross domestic product (GDP).

Historically, a ratio above 100% is considered overvalued. As of September 30, 2024, this ratio stands at approximately 208%, significantly above the historical average and suggesting that the market is strongly overvalued.

P/E and CAPE

Another important metric is the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, which measures the price of stocks relative to their earnings. The cyclically adjusted P/E ratio (CAPE), popularised by economist Robert Shiller, provides a long-term view by averaging earnings over ten years.

The CAPE ratio for the S&P 500 is currently around 35, well above the historical average of 16-17. This high level indicates that investors are willing to pay a premium for stocks, which could be a sign of overvaluation.

Several factors contribute to these elevated valuations. Low interest rates have played a significant role, making bonds less attractive and pushing investors toward stocks. Additionally, the rapid technological advancements and growth in sectors like technology, AI, and healthcare have driven up stock prices. Companies in these sectors have experienced significant revenue growth, leading to higher valuations.

High valuations

However, these high valuations come with risks. The market’s current levels are pricing in a lot of optimism about future growth and profitability. Any economic slowdown, policy changes, or unforeseen global events could trigger a market correction. Investors must remain cautious and consider the potential for volatility.

On the other hand, some analysts argue that the current valuation levels can be justified by the robust corporate earnings and strong economic fundamentals. They point out that the U.S. economy has shown resilience in the face of challenges, and many companies have adapted well to the changing environment.

Summary

In conclusion, while U.S. stocks are currently expensive and may be overvalued by historical standards, it’s essential to understand the underlying factors and potential risks.

Investors should stay informed, diversify their portfolios, and be prepared for possible market fluctuations. As always, a balanced approach to investing, considering both the potential rewards and risks, is crucial.

Always do your own and careful – RESEARCH! RESEARCH! RESEARCH!

An seek professional financial advice.

Trump rumour to relax U.S. vehicle self-driving rules pushes Tesla stock higher

Autonomous driving

Tesla shares enjoyed a Trump pump on Monday 18th November 2024 after reports that President-elect Donald Trump’s team intend to prioritise a federal framework for regulating autonomous vehicles within the U.S. Department of Transportation.

Elon Musk was a prominent advocate in the business sector for Trump’s re-election campaign leading up to this month’s elections.

Recently, Trump appointed Musk and former Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy to head the newly established Department of Government Efficiency.

Tesla 5-year share price chart

Tesla 5-year share price chart

Trump U.S. election win drives gold price down and Crypto up!

Gold prices have fallen to near a two-month low as the dollar strengthens in the wake of Donald Trump’s election victory last week.

This downturn has halted the bullion’s rally, which had achieved a series of record highs over the past year. Gold has seen a decline in six of the seven most recent trading sessions following Trump’s win, interrupting its streak of record-breaking milestones over the last twelve months.

On the other hand, Crypto has relished the Trump pump with Bitcoin and many altcoins setting new all-time highs!

Gold price charts – 3 month and one-year snapshot as of: 15th November 2024 (08:10 GMT)

Why has Sumsung fallen behind in the AI boom?

A Cartoon AI chip

Samsung’s struggle in the AI race

Samsung, previously a powerhouse in the semiconductor industry, has encountered significant hurdles in the AI competition, leading to a notable decline in market value. The company’s faltering stance can be attributed to a variety of factors, such as strategic errors, fierce competition, and swift technological progress in the AI field.

Missteps

A key factor in Samsung’s downturn in the AI sector is its insufficient investment in high-bandwidth memory (HBM) technology, which is vital for AI applications due to its ability to expedite data processing and enhance performance.

Although Samsung was once at the forefront of memory technology, it did not leverage the increasing demand for HBM, thus ceding ground to competitors such as SK Hynix. SK Hynix made significant investments in HBM and forged a robust partnership with Nvidia, an influential entity in the AI domain.

Competition

The AI sector is fiercely competitive, featuring key companies such as Nvidia, Google, and Microsoft, which are making substantial advancements in AI technology. Nvidia has notably become a frontrunner with its GPUs, crucial for AI training. Samsung’s struggle to match these developments has resulted in a decline in both market share and revenue.

Rapid technological advancements

The swift advancement of technology in the AI sector has presented challenges for Samsung. The company’s emphasis on conventional memory technology did not fully prepare it for the transition to AI-centric applications. With the rise of AI applications such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT, the need for sophisticated memory solutions surged, highlighting Samsung’s insufficient investment in High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) as a notable shortcoming.

Financial implications

Samsung’s difficulties in the AI sector have significantly affected its finances. The company has seen a reported loss of around $122 billion in market value since July 2024, marking the most substantial drop among global chipmakers. This decline is largely due to Samsung’s challenges in adapting to the evolving AI industry and competing with its rivals.

Prospects

Despite facing challenges, Samsung is actively striving to advance in the AI domain. The company has recently introduced its next-generation Bixby AI, which utilizes large language model technology, positioning it to better contend with competitors such as ChatGPT and Google Gemini.

Additionally, Samsung is cultivating its proprietary AI model, named Samsung Gauss, with the goal of augmenting device functionality and elevating the consumer experience.

Samsung’s lag in the AI sector is due to strategic errors, fierce competition, and swift technological progress. Despite considerable financial setbacks, the company is vigorously pursuing new AI initiatives and investments to recover its standing in the industry.

The path forward is fraught with challenges, yet Samsung’s commitment to innovation and adaptation could enable it to regain its status as a frontrunner in the AI domain.

Elon Musk wants to make Tesla a $25 trillion company by 2040

Autonomous vehicle

Elon Musk’s Vision for Tesla’s Trillion Dollar Future

Elon Musk, the visionary CEO of Tesla, has consistently set ambitious goals for the company. Among his most audacious claims is that Tesla could potentially become a multi trillion-dollar company and even reach a valuation of $25 trillion, largely driven by the deployment of robotaxis.

Robotaxi vision

Tesla’s robotaxi concept is centred around autonomous vehicles that can operate as self-driving taxis. These vehicles are equipped with Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, which Musk believes will revolutionize transportation. By transforming Tesla cars into autonomous ride-sharing vehicles, the company could generate significant revenue without increasing the number of cars sold.

Projections

Musk’s financial projections are based on the immense potential of the robotaxi market

  1. Revenue Generation: Each Tesla vehicle could earn substantial income as a robotaxi. If Tesla owners opt into the robotaxi network, Tesla could take a share of the revenue generated from these rides.
  2. Cost Efficiency: Autonomous driving reduces the need for human drivers, leading to lower operational costs. This efficiency could make robotaxis more affordable for users and highly profitable for Tesla.
  3. Reduced pollution: will help meet green energy goals.
  4. Market Penetration: As autonomous technology matures, the adoption of robotaxis could grow rapidly, capturing a significant share of the global transportation market.

Market potential

The global ride-hailing market is already valued at hundreds of billions of dollars, and with the introduction of autonomous vehicles, this market is expected to expand further. Tesla’s early entry and continuous advancements in FSD technology position it to be a dominant player in this space.

Challenges

While the potential is enormous, there are several challenges and scepticism surrounding Musk’s projections

  1. Regulatory Hurdles: Autonomous vehicles must navigate a complex regulatory landscape. Approval processes and safety standards vary by region, which could delay widespread adoption.
  2. Technical Milestones: Achieving full autonomy is a significant technical challenge. Tesla’s FSD technology is still in development, and perfecting it for widespread use requires overcoming numerous technical obstacles.
  3. Market Competition: Tesla is not the only player in the autonomous vehicle market. Competitors like Waymo, Cruise, and traditional automakers are also investing heavily in autonomous technology.

Conclusion

Elon Musk’s vision of making Tesla a trillion-dollar and eventually a $25 trillion company through robotaxis is both bold and captivating. The success of this vision hinges on the successful deployment and adoption of autonomous driving technology. While there are significant challenges to overcome, Musk’s track record of defying odds and achieving groundbreaking innovations keeps the possibility within the realm of achievable dreams.

The future of transportation, as envisioned by Musk, could fundamentally reshape how we move and how Tesla thrives as a pioneer in autonomous mobility.

Tesla’s future does seem promising with the introduction of Optimus, their humanoid robot, as well as their advancements in solar energy and battery technology.

The future looks very bright for Tesla.

Bitcoin breaks $82,000 with billions bet on it reaching $90,000

Bitcoin

Bitcoin has achieved a new all-time high, surpassing $82,000, and has continued to climb.

This suggests that investors are confident the world’s leading cryptocurrency will gain even more, following U.S. elections that resulted in a significant number of pro-crypto candidates being elected.

During his campaign, President-elect Donald Trump vowed to make the United States the crypto capital of the world.’

Trump reportedly committed to several initiatives for the crypto community, such as creating a national cryptocurrency reserve using $16 billion in Bitcoin accumulated by the U.S. government from asset seizures and from reducing interest rates.

Generally, an easing of monetary policy aligns with an increase in cryptocurrency prices, as it lowers the cost of borrowing money.

The Fed recently lowered U.S. interest rates for the second time this year.

U.S. stocks just keep hitting new highs!

U.S. stocks up!

The U.S. stock market sunbathed in another day of records on Friday 8th November 2024.

The Dow and S&P 500 recorded their best week in a year after Trump’s election win.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 259.65 points to close at 43,988.99 and broke the 44,000 barrier in intraday trading. The Dow Jones traded above 44,000 for the first time ever during the session.

The S&P 500 closed at 5,995.54, after briefly trading above 6,000 – a first for the S&P 500.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite slowed at 19,286.78 but set an intraday record high as well.

Dow Jones one-year chart as of: 8th November 2024

Dow Jones one-year chart as of: 8th November 2024

S&P 500 one-year chart as of: 8th November 2024

S&P 500 one-year chart as of: 8th November 2024

S&P 500 and Nasdaq close at new records again as Fed cuts rates

U.S> stocks up

More new records set in extended U.S. post-election rally

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq climbed on Thursday 7th November 2024, extending the rally following the victory of President-elect Donald Trump, while traders considered the implications of the Federal Reserve’s recent rate reduction.

The S&P 500 rose to close at an all-time high of 5,973.10, while the Nasdaq Composite increased by to end at 19,269.46, marking its first finish above 19,000.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average remained virtually unchanged, dipping slightly by less than one point to 43,729.34. During the trading session, all three indices reached new intraday highs.

Following President Trump’s electoral victory, the stock market experienced a significant rally on Wednesday 6th November 2024, with the Dow soaring by 1,500 points. The S&P 500 surged recording its best post-election day performance ever.

Post-election, the bond market has seen considerable fluctuations, with Treasury yields declining on Thursday after a sharp increase the previous day.

The mystery surrounding the origin of Bitcoin

Origin of Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s origin is one of the most captivating mysteries of the digital age. The cryptocurrency was created in 2008 by an unknown individual or group under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto.

Despite numerous investigations, the true identity of Nakamoto remains shrouded in secrecy.

Story

The story of Bitcoin begins with the release of a whitepaper titled “Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System.” This document outlined a new kind of decentralised digital currency, one that relied on cryptographic principles to ensure security and prevent double-spending.

Nakamoto’s revolutionary vision was to create a financial system free from the control of traditional banks and government interference.

Genesis block

In January 2009, Nakamoto mined the first block of the Bitcoin blockchain, known as the ‘genesis block,’ marking the birth of the cryptocurrency. Over the next couple of years, Nakamoto continued to work on the project, communicating with other developers via email and online forums.

The mystery surrounding the origin of Bitcoin

However, by 2011, Nakamoto had largely stepped away from active involvement in the project, leaving behind a legacy that would forever change the financial landscape.

Speculation

Speculation about Nakamoto’s true identity has been rampant. Some believe Nakamoto is a single, exceptionally talented individual, while others theorise that it could be a group of developers working under a collective pseudonym.

Over the years, various names have been proposed as possible candidates, including renowned cryptographers, developers, and even eccentric entrepreneurs. Yet, none of these theories have been definitively proven, and Nakamoto’s identity remains a closely guarded secret.

Intrigue

The intrigue surrounding Nakamoto is not just a matter of curiosity but also of financial significance. As the creator of Bitcoin, Nakamoto is estimated to own around one million Bitcoins. At current market values, this makes Nakamoto one of the wealthiest individuals in the world.

Bitcoin chart from inception as of 7th November 2024 touching $75,000

Bitcoin chart from inception as of 7th November 2024 touching $75,000

However, these Bitcoins have never been moved or spent, adding to the enigma of Nakamoto’s motives and intentions.

Myth?

The myth of Satoshi Nakamoto has taken on a life of its own, becoming a symbol of the power and potential of decentralized technology. The anonymity of Nakamoto also serves as a reminder of the core principles behind Bitcoin: privacy, decentralisation, and freedom from traditional financial systems.

In a world increasingly dominated by surveillance and control, the mystery of Nakamoto provides a compelling counter-narrative, one that continues to inspire and intrigue both technologists and libertarians alike.

In the end, the true identity of Satoshi Nakamoto may never be revealed, and perhaps that is as it should be. The enduring mystery adds to the allure of Bitcoin, ensuring that its origins will forever be a topic of fascination and debate.

Bitcoin and altcoins rocket to new highs hot on the heels of Trump win!

Bitcoin new high!

Bitcoin, which could benefit from relaxed regulation, soared to an all-time high and topped $76,000.

Bitcoin rallied Wednesday 6th November 2024, hitting all-time highs as former President Donald Trump defeated Vice President Kamala Harris to win the election an become the 47th U.S. president.

The price of Bitcoin touched a fresh record of $76,493.86.

Bitcoin one-month chart as of 6th November 2024 – New high!

Bitcoin hits new all-time high of $76,493.86 6th November 2024

Trump’s support for crypto

The ‘noises’ around the Trump trade for crypto are reportedly of deregulation, potential tax cuts for an asset that is both held long term but also day traded, less dependency on government financial institutions and the Fed and maybe seen as an alternative as a decentralised currency. Trump has previously indicated support of risk assets and the growth of crypto.

Ether surged 11%, while Solana, rocketed 13%. Payment system token XRP jumped more than 5%. Meanwhile, Meme coins soared, with Dogecoin up more than 15%.

Shares of Coinbase surged around 31%%, posting its best day on record since its first day of trading. MicroStrategy, which has a high correlation play on the price of Bitcoin, advanced 13%.

Nvidia promoted to Dow Jones Industrial Average at the expense of Intel

AI power

Nvidia is set to replace its rival chipmaker Intel in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, signifying a significant change in the blue-chip index that highlights the surge in artificial intelligence and a substantial shift within the semiconductor industry.

Intel’s shares fell by 1% in extended trading on Friday 1st November 2024, while Nvidia’s shares increased by 1%. Intel has now lost over half its value.

The update will take place on 8th November 2024. Also, Sherwin Williams will replace Dow Inc. in the index, the S&P and Dow Jones said in a statement.

Nvidia‘s shares have surged over 170% in 2024, following a roughly 240% increase last year, as investors flock to the AI chipmaker. Nvidia’s market capitalisation has expanded to $3.3 trillion, ranking it second only to Apple among publicly traded companies.

Nvidia one-year share price chart

Nvidia one-year share price chart

Major companies such as Microsoft, Meta, Google, and Amazon are acquiring Nvidia’s graphics processing units (GPUs), like the H100, in large quantities to create computer clusters for AI projects. Nvidia’s revenue has more than doubled for five consecutive quarters, with at least a threefold increase in three of those quarters. The company has indicated that the demand for its forthcoming AI GPU, Blackwell, is ‘insane’.

With Nvidia‘s inclusion, four of the six tech companies valued at over a trillion dollars are now part of the index, leaving Alphabet and Meta as the two not listed in the Dow.

Apple, Amazon and Intel all post positive results 31st October 2024

Apple

Apple’s fourth-quarter results surpassed Wall Street forecasts for revenue and earnings per share. However, net income declined due to a one-time charge related to a tax settlement in Europe.

iPhone sales and overall sales both rose by 6%.

Apple one year stock chart

Amazon

Amazon’s shares soared in after-hours trading following the announcement of earnings and revenue that exceeded expectations. The firm’s cloud services and advertising divisions demonstrated significant expansion.

Amazon one year stock chart

Intel

Intel has reported earnings that surpassed expectations and provided improved guidance. The company is currently undergoing a significant restructuring initiative.

Intel one year stock chart

However, Intel has now lost over half its market value.

Super Micro Computer drops 33% after disclosing ‘auditor’ resignation – 30th October 2024

Stock chart down

Super Micro Computer’s shares dropped 33% in premarket trading 30th October 2024, following the announcement in a regulatory filing that Ernst & Young had stepped down as its accounting firm.

The filing revealed that EY had expressed doubts about the AI server company’s “commitment to integrity and ethical values” during accounting reviews.

Super Micro had been included in the S&P 500 index in March 2004.

Super Micro one month chart snapshot 30th October 2024

Further update – 1st November 2024

Super Micro’s sell-off persisted on Friday, November 1, 2024, with the stock falling an additional 10%, culminating in a 44% loss for the week.

The most significant drop occurred on Wednesday 30th October 2024, following the company’s announcement of losing its second auditor in under two years.

Super Micro, currently behind schedule in submitting its latest annual report, has announced it will deliver a ‘business update’ for the most recent quarter on Tuesday 5th November 2024, coinciding with Election Day in the U.S.

Volkswagen profit plunges 42% in third quarter

Car manufacture

Volkswagen’s operating profit fell to 2.86 billion euros ($3.1 billion), with third-quarter sales revenue experiencing a 0.5% year-on-year decrease to roughly 78.5 billion euros.

These figures come after Volkswagen lowered its annual outlook for 2024 last month, which was the second adjustment within a few months.

The company has recently encountered several challenges, including potential plant closures in Germany and the cancellation of many labour contracts with local workers in September 2024.

According to Volkswagen, vehicle sales reportedly dropped by 8.3% in the third quarter of 2024, compared to the same period the previous year.

Reports indicate that the Volkswagen Group’s net liquidity was negative 160.6 billion euros at the end of September 2024. At the end of 2023, the company’s net liquidity was negative 147.4 billion euros.

Microsoft and Meta both indicate future AI spending will cut into next quarter profits

Microsoft and AI

Microsoft’s significant investment in OpenAI is impacting its earnings – 30th October 2024

The company reportedly indicated, following the quarterly earnings report, that Microsoft anticipates a $1.5 billion reduction in income for the current period, primarily due to projected losses from OpenAI.

Microsoft’s nearly $14 billion investment in OpenAI, the creator of the widely popular ChatGPT assistant, has catalysed the emergence of the generative artificial intelligence industry, leading to billions in new revenue for Microsoft.

Despite this, OpenAI is experiencing substantial financial losses. It is projected to incur $5 billion in losses this year, excluding stock-based compensation, against $4 billion in revenue, according to reports from earlier this month.

Microsoft’s stock declined following weaker-than-expected revenue guidance, despite exceeding earnings expectations.

The company’s revenue reportedly increased by 16% in the fiscal first quarter, outpacing analyst predictions.

Earnings from Azure and other cloud services reportedly rose by 33%, exceeding forecasts.

Nevertheless, the projected revenue growth did not meet analyst expectations.

Meta

Meta’s third-quarter earnings report, released on Wednesday 30th October 2024, disclosed user numbers that fell short of expectations.

The company reported $3.29 billion daily active users for the quarter, marking a 5% increase from the previous year but still below the anticipated $3.31 billion by analysts.

Meta also projected a substantial increase in capital expenditures for 2025.

Additionally, Meta indicated a significant rise in AI spending for 2025.

Markets heat up as the weather cools down!

Markets warm up

As the autumn chill of November sets in, the market seems to defy the temperature drop with a notable heated uptick in activity.

This phenomenon, often referred to as the ‘November Effect’, is a period where investors start to position themselves for end-of-year strategies, leading to increased market volatility and opportunity.

Historically

Historically, November has been a month where markets tend to show positive returns. Several factors contribute to this trend. Firstly, the anticipation of the holiday season boosts consumer spending, leading to higher revenues for retail companies. This optimism often spills over into the stock market, driving up share prices.

Secondly, institutional investors begin to adjust their portfolios to lock in gains for the year, a process known as ‘window dressing’. This activity can lead to increased buying, particularly in stocks that have performed well throughout the year, further driving market momentum.

Additionally, the release of third-quarter earnings reports in October sets the stage for November. Companies that have posted strong earnings results often see continued investor interest, propelling their stocks higher. Conversely, companies with weaker results might face selloffs, adding to market dynamism.

Tech resilience

Tech stocks, in particular, have shown resilience and growth potential, even amidst economic uncertainties. With advancements in AI, cloud computing, and cybersecurity, tech continues to be a focal point for investors. November often sees a renewed interest in these sectors, with investors looking to capitalise on year-end growth opportunities.

However, it’s essential to approach this period with a balanced perspective. While the ‘November Effect’ can present lucrative opportunities, it’s also a time of heightened market volatility. Investors should stay informed, diversify their portfolios, and consider both the potential rewards and risks.

As the weather gets colder, the markets heat up, creating a dynamic environment ripe with possibilities for those who navigate it wisely. The key lies in staying informed and alert, ready to adapt to the ever-changing market landscape.

Take informed financial advice from a professional qualified financial adviser.

And remember…

RESEARCH! RESEARCH! RESEARCH!

Apple smartphones return to top 5 rank in China following iPhone 16 release

Apple smartphones

Apple has returned to the top five smartphone vendors in China’s market during the third quarter, lifted by the release of the iPhone 16, according to data.

Apple’s shipment growth remained steady year-on-year in the Q2, securing the company a second-place rank by market share in Q3.

Following Apple, Huawei held the third position with a 15.3% market share, as per reported data. Despite this, Huawei’s smartphone shipments in China saw a significant increase of 42% year-on-year.

Nasdaq hits new all-time high – Tesla enjoys another great day

Nasdaq index at new high!

The Nasdaq Composite climbed to an all-time high on Friday 25th October 2024, boosted by BIG tech stocks.

The tech-heavy index rose 0.56% to 18,518.61

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index rose 0.56% to 18,518.61

Tech stocks boosted the market ahead of their upcoming earnings. Nvidia added 0.8%, and shares of Meta Platforms, Amazon and Microsoft were also higher.

Some analysts are suggesting it may be time to short Amazon and Apple as they head into earnings season? Let’s see.

Tesla helped boost the Nasdaq as its stock climbed to close at a 13-month high, sustaining its rally post-earnings.

Tesla enjoyed its best market day since 2013, the stock rose more than 3% on Friday 25th October 2024, closing at its highest since September 2023.

Tesla 5-day stock chart as of 25th October 2024

Tesla 5-day stock chart as of 25th October 2024

Barclays third quarter profit jumps 23% as shares hit nine-year high!

On Thursday 24th October 2024, Barclays Bank announced a net profit of £1.6 billion ($2 billion) for the third quarter, surpassing expectations

This figure exceeded the anticipated £1.17 billion net profit from analysts and marked a 23% increase from the same quarter in 2023.

The revenue for the quarter was reported at £6.5 billion, just over the predicted £6.39 billion.

Shares of Barclays rose by 3.5% as of 08:45 BST – hitting their highest point since October 2015 according to reports.

Barclays Bank One year share chart

Barclays Bank One year share chart

The bank’s return on tangible equity improved to 12.3% from the previous quarter’s 9.9%, while its CET1 ratio, a key solvency metric, increased to 13.8% from 13.6%.

Barclays had earlier this year unveiled a strategic revamp aimed at reducing expenses (cost cutting), enhancing returns for shareholders, and securing long-term financial stability.

This shift has emphasized domestic lending and scaled back the investment banking division’s costs. Part of this new strategy involved acquiring the retail banking operations of Tesco Bank in the UK.

Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1)?

Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) is a key element of Tier 1 capital, consisting mainly of common stock held by banks or other financial institutions. Introduced in 2014, CET1 serves as a capital measure designed to safeguard the economy from financial crises. Banks must adhere to the minimum CET1 ratio requirements relative to their risk-weighted assets (RWAs), as specified by their financial regulators.

History lesson

Barclays Bank was formally established on November 17, 1690. It traces back to goldsmith bankers John Freame and Thomas Gould in London.


The name ‘Barclays’ came into the business in 1736 when James Barclay, who married John Freame’s daughter, joined the partnership.