S&P 500 hits new record high

S&P 500 record

The S&P 500 closed at a record high Tuesday 18th February 2025 after investors shook off headwinds on the global trade and inflation

The S&P 500 index gained 0.24% to close at a record of 6129 on 18th February 2025. The Nasdaq Composite closed up at 20041 while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added finished the day at 44556.

S&P 500 hits new record high to close at 6129 as of 18th February 2025
S&P 500 hits new record high to close at 6129 as of 18th February 2025

The energy sector was the top performer in the S&P 500, increasing by 1.9%. Halliburton and Valero Energy spearheaded the gains. Technology stocks also gained.

The general consensus is that the market is still trying to break out of the consolidation it’s been in since early December. This week we see retail earnings, but news on Trumps tariffs could continue to be a wild card for the markets.

Wall Street is coming off a winning week. The Dow Jones gained around 0.6% last week, while the S&P 500 advanced 1.5%. The Nasdaq rose 2.6%.

Much of last week’s gains occurred later in the week after President Donald Trump’s proposal for reciprocal tariffs on countries that impose levies on U.S. goods reassured investors who were concerned that the tariffs would be more severe.

Gold or Bitcoin?

Gold or Bitcoin

Gold or Bitcoin: Which Is a Better Investment?

When it comes to investing, two assets often come to mind: gold and Bitcoin.

Both have their unique advantages and disadvantages, and choosing between them depends on your investment goals, risk tolerance, and market outlook.

Historical performance

Gold has been a reliable store of value for thousands of years. Its price has seen steady growth, with a notable increase of 60% from 2010 to 20241.

During the 1970s inflation crisis, gold rose by 2,300%, showcasing its ability to hedge against inflation. Gold ETFs have grown to around $270 billion in assets under management (AUM) by 2024.

Impressive growth some would say but wait… there’s a new kid on the block.

Bitcoin, on the other hand, is a relatively new asset, introduced in 2009. Despite its short history, Bitcoin has seen explosive growth, surging from $4 in 2011 to over $106,000 in 2024 – a growth of more than 2 million percent.

During the 2020-2024 inflationary cycle, Bitcoin increased by 1,185%, highlighting its potential as an inflation hedge.

Volatility and risk

Gold is known for its stability and long-term value preservation. Its volatility index (VIX) is relatively low, making it a safe haven during economic downturns. Investors with long-term goals often prefer gold for its consistent performance and lower risk.

Bitcoin, however, is highly volatile. Its price can fluctuate dramatically within short periods, making it a riskier investment. While Bitcoin offers the potential for high returns, it also comes with the possibility of significant losses. Investors must be prepared for the market’s ups and downs and have a higher risk tolerance.

Inflation hedging

Both gold and Bitcoin are considered effective hedges against inflation. Gold has a long history of maintaining its value during inflationary periods, making it a trusted asset for wealth preservation.

Bitcoin, as a digital asset, has gained recognition as ‘digital gold’ and is increasingly seen as a viable alternative for hedging against inflation.

Regulatory environment

Gold is a well-established asset with a clear regulatory framework. Central banks worldwide hold significant gold reserves, underscoring its role in financial stability. Bitcoin, however, operates in a relatively new and evolving regulatory landscape.

While some countries have embraced Bitcoin, others have imposed restrictions or bans, adding an element of uncertainty to its future.

Accessibility and liquidity

Gold is a tangible asset that can be easily bought and sold. It is widely accessible and has a liquid market, allowing investors to enter and exit positions with ease.

Bitcoin, while also highly liquid, requires a digital wallet and an understanding of cryptocurrency exchanges. Its accessibility can be limited by regulatory and technological barriers.

Is there a conclusion?

Choosing between gold and Bitcoin depends on your investment goals and risk tolerance. Gold offers stability, long-term value preservation, and a lower risk profile, making it suitable for conservative investors.

Bitcoin, with its potential for high returns and inflation hedging, appeals to those with a higher risk tolerance and a belief in the future of digital assets.

Ultimately, diversifying your portfolio with both assets can provide a balanced approach, combining the stability of gold with the growth potential of Bitcoin.

Musk is everywhere!

Elon Musk

Elon Musk is the world’s richest person and the leader of Tesla, SpaceX, X, The Boring Company, x.AI, and Neuralink.

He is also the co-founder of PayPal and Zip2 and now the co-leader of DOGE – of U.S. Department of Government Efficiency and also recently led a group of investors in a bid to acquire OpenAI.

From a business perspective, Musk’s achievements are undeniable and even astonishing. The companies he leads are not only market leaders but also pioneers in their respective fields – consider how Tesla initiated the electric vehicle industry or how SpaceX successfully commercialised spaceflight.

Paradoxically, achieving success on a broad scale can have adverse effects. Investors appear to be increasingly concerned that Musk, despite his business acumen, is becoming distracted.

Tesla shares have declined over the past five trading days, dropping more than 6% on Tuesday 11th February 2025 as Chinese competitor BYD seems to be surpassing the company in AI-enabled autonomous driving.

If hands-free driving becomes a reality at Tesla, it could allow Musk to engage in other ventures without negatively impacting the company’s shares.

What you need to know today

BYD is a Tesla threat – but this is Elon Musk we’re talking about

Tesla shares fell 6.3% Tuesday 11th February 2025 after Chinese EV maker BYD said it will integrate DeepSeek into its autonomous driving technology and offer it in nearly all its vehicles.

There are also concerns over Musk’s distractions, such as his bid for OpenAI and his role at the ‘DOGE’ – Department of Government Efficiency in the White House.

Tesla’s stock price has fallen over 16% in the past five trading days

Tesla’s stock price has fallen over 16% in the past five trading days (5-day chart as of 11th February 2025)

BYD shares hit record as the EV maker rolls out advanced driver tech with DeepSeek’s AI assistance

BYD with DeepSeek AI (fictitious image)

Shares of BYD, the Chinese electric vehicle (EV) giant, surged to a record high on Tuesday 11th February 2025, following the announcement of its new driver assistance technology.

The company revealed its latest ‘DiPilot’ assisted driving system, which integrates artificial intelligence (AI) from Chinese startup DeepSeek.

This move is expected to significantly enhance the driving experience and safety features of BYD’s vehicles.

BYD’s founder and chairman, Wang Chuanfu, announced the launch of the DiPilot system at a livestreamed event, emphasizing that advanced smart driving will become a standard safety feature, akin to seatbelts and airbags (time will tell on that statement).

The system includes features such as remote parking and autonomous highway navigation. These features reportedly are being integrated into over 20 models. Budget-friendly options priced below 70,000 yuan ($9,555) will also have the system.

DeepSeek AI integration

The integration of DeepSeek’s AI technology is a game-changer for BYD. DeepSeek, known for its innovative chatbot that rivals U.S. competitors such as OpenAI and others brings high-quality AI capabilities to BYD’s autonomous driving systems.

This partnership allows BYD to offer advanced intelligent features at a competitive price, putting it ahead of its rivals in the fiercely competitive Chinese EV market.

Analysts have praised BYD’s strategic shift from price-cutting to upgrading vehicle functions and have noted that BYD is now dictating the pace of technological features in the market.

The company’s stock rose by 4.5% to a record high in Hong Kong, reflecting investor optimism about the new technology.

BYD’s move to integrate advanced driver assistance systems into budget models is expected to intensify the EV price war. The company’s aggressive pricing strategy, combined with cutting-edge technology, positions it well to capture a larger market share.

With more than 20 models featuring the new driver assistance tech, BYD is set to lead the way in smart vehicle innovation.

As BYD continues to expand its presence globally, the integration of DeepSeek’s AI technology marks a significant milestone in the company’s journey towards becoming a leader in the EV industry.

The future looks promising for BYD as it continues to innovate and push the boundaries of automotive technology.

One Year BYD charts as of 11th February 2025

One Year BYD charts as of 11th February 2025

Could DeepSeek deliver another shock to the stock market and to tech stocks in particular?

AI

DeepSeek’s impact probably isn’t yet fully reflected in U.S. stocks

The ramifications of the Chinese startup DeepSeek, with its promise of delivering cheaper and more energy-efficient alternatives to harness artificial intelligence (AI), have yet to be fully reflected in U.S. equities.

If DeepSeek ends up delivering a less costly way forward – it will make it much easier and cheaper for smaller more typical companies to create AI ‘agents’ or AI opportunities for their businesses.

Under this scenario there will be ‘useful’ and meaningful benefits from DeepSeek that could bring huge earnings potential for a broader mix of companies beyond the current AI heavyweights through greater efficiencies and productivity from less-expensive AI solutions.

AI spending race

When DeepSeek’s chatbot launched earlier this month in the U.S., it shocked Wall Street, prompting a historic $600 billion one-day wipeout for AI chip developer Nvidia.

It also put huge sums being pledged for AI infrastructure by U.S. mega cap tech companies under a microscope. Rather than back down, the U.S. spending race has intensified.

  • Meta’s Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg spoke a week ago of spending ‘hundreds of billions of dollars’ on AI infrastructure in the coming years, after pledging $60 billion to $65 billion on AI this year.
  • Alphabet announced AI investment for 2025, a bigger figure than Wall Street was anticipating.
  • Google forecast $75 billion in capital expenditures in 2025, a bigger figure than Wall Street was anticipating.
  • Microsoft reported its cloud and AI spending grew 95% in its fiscal second quarter to $22.6 billion.
  • Amazon has reported big AI investment too.

The spending frenzy on anything AI sends the market into a spin. How much more has to be spent before we see capital expenditures reduced or decrease is anyone’s guess right now – but current levels of AI expenditure are high, and returns will be expected.

“When is enough, enough?”

Or more to the point you might ask – when is ‘enough’ too much?

Fresh AI-spending commitments helped lift shares of Nvidia on while we saw a slump for Tesla shares in the week.

China this week saw the U.S. slap new 10% tariffs, while Canada and Mexico saw Trump threaten but delay 25% tariffs by 30 days. China retaliated in kind.

Catching up with the ‘Magnificent Seven’

Despite the high scrutiny on AI stocks, there is also much renewed focus from investors on other areas of the market.

There has been a bit of a rotation – while tech has been under pressure, defensive and rate-sensitive parts of the market have been gaining. This seems to be an emerging pattern.

​But there should be reason for caution. For one thing, the growth rate of ‘Magnificent Seven’ earnings has been tailing off in recent quarters, especially since the group reached a 61% yearly rate in the fourth quarter of 2023 – the spend on AI investment has yet to fully appreciate the full return.

Forward analysts’ expectations have this percentage reportedly closer to 16% to 18% for the end of this year. 

But that also would move the group closer ​to the roughly 12% to 13% yearly growth rate expected for the rest of the companies in the S&P 500 index, potentially making the high valuations of the ‘Magnificent Seven’ tougher to justify.

One of the most surprising things of the past couple of weeks, given the news around DeepSeek and shocks on the trade front, is the fact that stocks were still close to their all-time highs.

The market is pretty resilient right now, but tech stocks are sitting at a very high valuation – a pullback is due, even a correction (in my opinion).

The arrival of DeepSeek creates an alternative ‘cheaper’ AI option and that will unravel the status quo.

AMD misses on data centre revenue – but profit and revenue are up

AMD

AMD shows mixed results in Q4 2024 earnings report

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has released its Q4 2024 earnings report, revealing a mixed bag of results that have sparked interest and discussions among investors and analysts.

While the company managed to surpass expectations in certain areas, it fell short in others, notably in data centre revenue.

Key highlights

  • Earnings per share (EPS): AMD reported an adjusted EPS of $1.09, slightly above the expected $1.08. This indicates a stable performance in terms of profitability, showcasing the company’s ability to manage costs effectively.
  • Revenue: The company posted a revenue of $7.66 billion, surpassing analysts’ estimates of $7.53 billion. This positive result highlights AMD’s continued growth and market presence, particularly in its core segments.
  • Data centre sales: Despite the overall positive revenue, AMD’s data centre sales fell short of expectations. Sales in this segment nearly doubled to $3.86 billion, reflecting a 69% increase year-over-year. However, this figure was below the anticipated $4.14 billion, signaling challenges in meeting the high demand and competition in the data center market.
  • Income: AMD reported a net income of $482 million, or 29 cents per share, down from $667 million, or 41 cents per share, in the year-ago period. This decline in net income suggests that the company faced increased expenses or other financial challenges during the quarter.

First quarter guidance

Looking ahead, AMD has provided guidance for the first quarter of 2025. The company expects Q1 sales to be around $7.1 billion, with a gross margin of approximately 54%. This forecast indicates cautious optimism, with AMD aiming to navigate the complexities of the semiconductor industry and maintain steady growth.

CEO’s statement

AMD’s CEO, Lisa Su, reportedly expressed confidence in the company’s future, particularly in the data centre AI market.

She highlighted the significant opportunities and potential for growth in this area, predicting strong double-digit revenue and EPS growth for 2025.

Her statement underscores AMD’s strategic focus on innovation and expanding its market share in high-growth segments.

Future

AMD’s Q4 2024 earnings report presents a nuanced picture of the company’s performance. While it has achieved notable successes in certain areas, challenges remain, particularly in meeting data centre revenue expectations.

As AMD continues to navigate the competitive landscape of the semiconductor industry, its future strategies and market positioning will be closely watched by investors and analysts alike.

Apple and Google shares fall after China reportedly launches probes into Apple App Store practices and Google’s anti-trust issues

Google and Apple probed

China Launches Probes into Google and Apple Over Antitrust Concerns

China has recently initiated investigations into both Google and Apple, raising concerns over potential antitrust violations.

The State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) is considering whether to formally investigate Apple’s App Store practices, particularly focusing on the fees Apple charges and its policies that block third-party payment providers. This move has already caused Apple’s shares to fall.

In addition to the probe into Apple, China has also opened a separate investigation into Google, although details about the focus of this investigation have not been disclosed. These probes come at a time when trade tensions between the U.S. and China are escalating under President Donald Trump’s administration.

Apple’s app store under scrutiny

Apple’s App Store has been under scrutiny globally, with regulators in Europe recently forcing the company to open up its App Store under the Digital Markets Act, allowing non-Apple companies to offer app stores and app developers to use third-party payment systems.

If the China probe goes ahead, it would pose further challenges for Apple in one of its largest markets, where it is already facing stiff competition from local companies such as Huawei.

Google

Google, on the other hand, has not yet commented on the specifics of the investigation, but the move highlights the increasing regulatory pressures faced by U.S. tech giants in China.

Both companies will need to navigate these investigations carefully as they continue to operate in a highly competitive and regulated environment.

The outcome of these probes could have significant implications for the tech industry, potentially leading to changes in how these companies operate in China and other markets.

As the investigations unfold, the world will be watching closely to see how Google and Apple respond to these regulatory challenges.

Gold rises to new high!

Gold up

Gold hits new highs in 2025 amid strong demand

Gold prices have surged to unprecedented levels in 2025, driven by robust demand and a series of global economic uncertainties.

As of early February, gold futures traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange reached a record high of $2,875 per ounce, marking a significant milestone in the precious metal’s market performance.

Stable safe haven during unstable times

The surge in gold prices can be attributed to several factors. Firstly, geopolitical tensions and economic instability have prompted investors to seek safe-haven assets. Gold, with its historical reputation as a store of value, has become a preferred choice for those looking to hedge against market volatility and inflation.

Central banks

Central banks have also played a crucial role in driving up gold prices. In 2024, global central banks added a record amount of gold to their reserves, with purchases surpassing 1,000 tons for the third consecutive year.

This trend has continued into 2025, with countries like Poland, Turkey, and India leading the way in increasing their gold holdings.

Investment demand for gold has seen a significant uptick as well. Gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and bars and coins have experienced strong demand, particularly from investors in China and India.

The reduction of gold import duties in India and economic uncertainties in China have further fueled this demand.

Resistance?

Despite the positive momentum, analysts caution that gold prices could face resistance levels and potential pullbacks. However, the overall outlook remains bullish, with expectations of continued strong demand and further gains in the coming months.

As the global economy navigates through these uncertain times, gold’s allure as a safe-haven asset is likely to persist, making it a key player in the financial markets.

Gold price one-year chart as of 5th February 2025 (am GMT)

Gold price one-year chart as of 5th February 2025 (am GMT)

Apple shares rise as services revenue compensates for iPhone miss

Artificial Intelligence

Apple’s shares recently rose by 3% despite a decline in iPhone sales, thanks to a significant boost in services revenue.

The company’s overall revenue for the first fiscal quarter of 2025 reported an increase of 4% to $124.3 billion, surpassing Wall Street’s expectations.

However, iPhone sales fell short of estimates, totalling $69.14 billion compared to the expected $71.03 billion.

The services division, which includes subscriptions, warranties, and licencing deals, reported a revenue of $26.34 billion, a 14% increase from the same period last year. This growth in services revenue helped offset the decline in iPhone sales and contributed to the positive market response.

Apple CEO Tim Cook reportedly highlighted that iPhone sales were stronger in countries where Apple Intelligence is available.

The company reportedly plans to release additional languages for Apple Intelligence in April 2025, including a version in simplified Chinese.

FTSE 100 hits new all-time high in boost for London

FTSE 100

The FTSE 100, London’s premier stock index, has recently achieved a new all-time high, closing at 8,646.88 on 30th January 2025.

This milestone marks a significant boost for the City of London, reflecting strong corporate performance, investor confidence, and favourable economic conditions.

Factors driving the surge

Several key factors have contributed to the FTSE 100’s impressive rise

  1. Strong Corporate Updates – Companies like St James’s Place and Airtel Africa have reported robust financial results, attracting investor interest. St James’s Place, for instance, saw its shares rise by over 10% after announcing it had attracted £4.3 billion in assets last year.
  2. Value Seeking – With extreme valuations of some American companies, international investors are looking for better value in London. The FTSE 100’s relatively lower price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio and high dividend yield make it an attractive option.
  3. Return of ‘Animal Instincts‘ – The market has seen a resurgence of mergers and acquisitions, driven by investor optimism and confidence in the economic outlook.
  4. Interest Rate Expectations: Hopes for further interest rate cuts by the Bank of England have also played a role in lifting the index. The European Central Bank’s recent decision to cut interest rates has further fueled investor optimism.
  5. Weaker Pound – The pound’s weakness against the U.S. dollar has benefited many FTSE 100 companies that earn a significant portion of their revenues overseas. This has boosted the relative value of their foreign earnings when converted back to sterling.

Implications for the City of London

The new high represents a significant boost for the City of London, especially amid concerns that the market was losing ground to American exchanges.

The FTSE 100’s performance highlights the resilience and attractiveness of London’s financial markets, even in the face of global economic uncertainties.

FTSE 100 new high reached 30th January 2025

FTSE 100 new high reached 30th January 2025

The return of ‘animal instincts’ had prompted more mergers and acquisitions in London, while the extreme valuations of some American companies had sent investors looking for better value elsewhere. This shift in investor sentiment underscores the importance of London’s financial markets in the global economy.

Looking Ahead

While the FTSE 100’s recent performance is encouraging, it is essential to remain cautious. Market volatility and global economic uncertainties, such as the outlook for artificial intelligence-related growth stocks and the potential impact of a Trump presidency, could influence future market movements.

Nevertheless, the FTSE 100’s new all-time high is a testament to the strength and resilience of London’s financial markets. As investors continue to seek value and stability, the FTSE 100 is well-positioned to remain a key player in the global financial landscape.

A list of the companies in the FTSE 100 as of January 2025

No.Company NameNo.Company Name
13i Group PLC51Intertek Group PLC
2Admiral Group PLC52International Consolidated Airlines Group SA
3Airtel Africa PLC53JD Sports Fashion PLC
4Alliance Witan PLC54Kingfisher PLC
5Anglo American PLC55Land Securities Group PLC
6Antofagasta PLC56Legal & General Group PLC
7Ashtead Group PLC57Lloyds Banking Group PLC
8Associated British Foods PLC58London Stock Exchange Group PLC
9AstraZeneca PLC59LondonMetric Property PLC
10Auto Trader Group PLC60M&G PLC
11Aviva PLC61Marks & Spencer Group PLC
12BAE Systems PLC62Melrose Industries PLC
13Barclays PLC63Mondi PLC
14Barratt Redrow PLC64National Grid PLC
15Beazley PLC65NatWest Group PLC
16Berkeley Group Holdings PLC66Next PLC
17BP PLC67Pearson PLC
18British American Tobacco PLC68Pershing Square Holdings Ltd
19British Land Co PLC69Persimmon PLC
20BT Group PLC70Phoenix Group Holdings PLC
21Bunzl PLC71Prudential PLC
22Centrica PLC72Reckitt Benckiser Group PLC
23Coca-Cola HBC AG73RELX PLC
24Compass Group PLC74Rentokil Initial PLC
25Convatec Group PLC75Rightmove PLC
26Croda International PLC76Rio Tinto PLC
27DCC PLC77Rolls-Royce Holdings PLC
28Diageo PLC78Sage Group PLC
29Diploma PLC79Sainsbury (J) PLC
30Easyjet PLC80Schroders PLC
31Endeavour Mining PLC81Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust PLC
32Entain PLC82Segro PLC
33Experian PLC83Severn Trent PLC
34F&C Investment Trust PLC84Shell PLC
35Fresnillo PLC85Smith & Nephew PLC
36Games Workshop Group PLC86Smith (DS) PLC
37Glencore PLC87Smiths Group PLC
38GSK PLC88Spirax-Sarco Engineering PLC
39Haleon PLC89SSE PLC
40Halma PLC90St. James’s Place PLC
41Hargreaves Lansdown PLC91Standard Chartered PLC
42Hikma Pharmaceuticals PLC92Taylor Wimpey PLC
43Hiscox Ltd93Tesco PLC
44Howden Joinery Group PLC94Unilever PLC
45HSBC Holdings PLC95Unite Group PLC
46IMI PLC96United Utilities Group PLC
47Imperial Brands PLC97Vodafone Group PLC
48Informa PLC98Weir Group PLC
49Intercontinental Hotels Group PLC99Whitbread PLC
50Intermediate Capital Group PLC100WPP PLC

Is Nvidia share price at risk as DeepSeek creates an alternative lower cost AI direction?

China and U.S. AI

Nvidia’s share price has been on a rollercoaster ride recently. After experiencing a significant drop due to concerns over the Chinese startup DeepSeek’s AI models, Nvidia’s stock saw a sharp recovery.

On Tuesday 28th January 2025 Nvidia shares ended 8.82% higher at $128.86 on Nasdaq, following a 17% drop the previous day.

However, there are mixed opinions about the potential for more downside. Some analysts believe that Nvidia’s stock still looks weak on the technical charts and may face further declines.

Some analysts suggest that Nvidia shares may trade in the range of $105 to $135 and recommend a ‘sell on rise’ strategy. Some also pointed out signs of technical deterioration, suggesting that Nvidia’s stock may be entering an intermediate-term corrective phase.

On the other hand, some investors are optimistic about Nvidia’s long-term growth prospects, especially with its strong fundamentals and continued advancements in AI technology.

The market remains dynamic, and the stock’s performance will likely depend on various factors, including broader market trends and developments in the AI industry.

Nvidia meteoric will likely change dramatically when face with an alternative AI chip manufacturer.

Doubt cast

DeepSeek, has made significant advancements in AI technology. There are claims and speculations that DeepSeek may have used some U.S. technology to enhance its capabilities.

For instance, it was reported that DeepSeek acquired a substantial number of Nvidia’s high-performance A100 graphics processor chips before the U.S. imposed restrictions on their sales to China. Additionally, there have been allegations that DeepSeek copied some technology developed by U.S. rival OpenAI.

However, these are unfounded claims and it’s important to point out that DeepSeek has also been praised for its innovation and efficiency, developing AI models at a fraction of the cost compared to leading U.S. tech companies.

This may even aid Nvidia as it could drive the cost of AI down bringing it to a wider audience more quickly thus enhancing Nvidia’s future sales.

Investors poured money into leveraged ETFs linked to Nvidia – then the stock crashed!

ETFs

Single-stock ETFs betting heavily on Nvidia’s blistering rally plunged, tracking losses in the AI chip makers shares, calling into question the reliability of the leveraged investment strategy.

The GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF (NVDL) fell nearly 34% overnight. The Direxion Daily NVDA Bull 2x Shares ETF (NVDU) and T-Rex 2X Long Nvidia Daily Target ETF (NVDX) plunged 33.8% and 33.77% respectively. All three funds reported their largest loss in a single day, according to data from FactSet. 

Conversely, funds betting against Nvidia like the GraniteShares 2x Short NVDA Daily ETF (NVDL) rose more than 33%.

This sell-off has been a difficult lesson for investors who have seen Nvidia as invincible and have taken aggressive bets on its growth without understanding the risks of single stock ETFs.

The funds were designed to deliver twice the performance of Nvidia on a single-day basis.

It could be a matter of time before some of them implode depending on the intensity of market movements of individual stocks.

Single stock ETFs come with a huge risk and huge upside – we just witnessed the downside.

It’s so volatile – a day after the fall Nvidia regained some 9% of its one-day loss. Remarkable loss, exceptional recovery too?

Nvidia one-month chart 28th January 2025

Trade carefully.

The aftermath from the arrival of Deepseek

Deepseek AI

Nvidia, the renowned American technology company, recently experienced the largest one-day loss in U.S. history. On January 27, 2025, Nvidia’s stock plummeted by 17%, resulting in a staggering market cap loss of nearly $600 billion.

This unprecedented drop was primarily triggered by the emergence of DeepSeek, a Chinese artificial intelligence startup that has been making waves in the tech industry.

DeepSeek, founded in 2023 by Liang Wenfeng, has developed open-source large language models that rival some of the best AI models in the world. The company’s latest model, DeepSeek-V3, has demonstrated impressive performance at a fraction of the cost of its competitors.

This has raised concerns among investors about the sustainability of Nvidia’s dominance in the AI chip market.

The release of DeepSeek’s latest technology has caused significant anxiety among U.S. tech giants, leading to a massive sell-off in the stock market. Companies that rely heavily on Nvidia’s GPUs, such as Dell, Oracle, and Super Micro Computer, also saw their stock prices plummet.

The ripple effect of Nvidia’s loss was felt across the tech-heavy Nasdaq, which dropped by 3.1% on the same day.

Nvidia one-month chart 27th January 2025

In response to this market upheaval, former President Donald Trump commented on the situation, stating that DeepSeek’s emergence should serve as a ‘wake-up call’ for American companies.

Trump emphasised the need for U.S. industries to remain competitive and innovative in the face of rising competition from Chinese tech firms. He acknowledged the impressive advancements made by DeepSeek and suggested that American companies could benefit from adopting more cost-effective methods in their AI development.

Trump’s remarks highlight the growing concern among U.S. policymakers and industry leaders about the rapid advancements in AI technology coming from China.

The success of DeepSeek has demonstrated that significant breakthroughs can be achieved with relatively modest investments, challenging the notion that massive capital expenditure is necessary for top-tier AI performance.

As the AI race continues to heat up, it is clear that companies like Nvidia will need to adapt and innovate to maintain their competitive edge. The emergence of DeepSeek has not only disrupted the market but also underscored the importance of staying ahead in the rapidly evolving field of artificial intelligence.

For American tech giants, this wake-up call serves as a reminder that the global AI landscape is becoming increasingly competitive, and complacency is not an option.

Has the U.S. spent wisely on AI development?

The emergence of DeepSeek has indeed raised questions about the spending strategies of U.S. tech companies on AI development. DeepSeek’s ability to develop high-performing AI models at a fraction of the cost has led to concerns about the necessity of the massive capital expenditures by large U.S. tech firms.

For instance, companies like Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon have collectively spent over $1 trillion on AI investments in recent years. This significant spending has been driven by the belief that larger models and more computing power would lead to better performance.

However, DeepSeek’s success with more cost-effective methods challenges this notion and suggests that efficient innovation might be more important than sheer scale.

The impressive performance and lower costs of DeepSeek’s models have prompted some analysts to question whether the billions of dollars spent by U.S. tech companies on AI development are justified. This has led to a re-evaluation of AI spending strategies and a push for more efficient and innovative approaches to AI development.

In summary, while U.S. tech companies have invested heavily in AI, the success of DeepSeek highlights the potential for achieving cutting-edge results with fewer resources. This has sparked a broader discussion about the most effective and efficient ways to advance AI technology.

Asking ChatGPT – ‘Do you see Deepseek as a competitor or a threat?’

The reply:

As an AI, I don’t have personal opinions or feelings. However, I can share that DeepSeek’s rapid rise and impressive performance in the AI field are noteworthy. Their ability to develop high-performing models at a lower cost is a significant achievement and has certainly shaken up the industry. It’s a reminder of the dynamic and competitive nature of the AI landscape, where innovation can come from unexpected places.

Asking ChatGPT – ‘What do you think of Deepseek?’

The reply:

DeepSeek is a fascinating and disruptive player in the AI landscape. Founded in 2023 by Liang Wenfeng, this Chinese startup has quickly gained attention for its open-source large language models, which rival some of the best AI models in the world at a fraction of the cost. Their latest models, DeepSeek-V3 and DeepSeek-R1, have demonstrated impressive performance and efficiency, challenging the dominance of established tech giants2.

DeepSeek’s emergence has caused significant market upheaval, leading to substantial drops in the stock prices of major AI-related firms, including Nvidia. The company’s success highlights the potential for innovation and cost-effectiveness in AI development, which has prompted industry leaders and policymakers to re-evaluate their strategies.

Overall, DeepSeek’s rapid rise and impact on the AI industry underscore the importance of staying competitive and innovative in this fast-evolving field. It’s a reminder that breakthroughs can come from unexpected places and that the AI landscape is becoming increasingly dynamic and competitive.

It would not be drawn on these questions but, one thing is for sure the U.S. has spent billions developing their systems and charge fortunes for using it.

This is about to change.

And further…

The Deepseek website reportedly crashed on 27th January 2025 due to heavy global demand. There were also reports of unrelenting cyberattacks on its systems…?

Curious. From minnow to centre stage in just one day!

S&P 500 at new high!

Stocks up

On 23rd January 2025, the S&P 500 reached a new all-time high, closing at 6,118.71

This milestone was driven by a combination of strong fourth-quarter earnings results and a significant announcement from President Trump regarding a $500 billion investment in AI infrastructure.

The investment, led by OpenAI, SoftBank Group Corp., and Oracle Corporation, aims to develop data centres and create over 100,000 jobs, further fueling investor optimism.

Additionally, solid earnings reports from major corporations like Netflix and Capital One Financial Corporation contributed to the positive market sentiment.

The S&P 500’s new high reflects the broader market’s confidence in the economic outlook and the potential for continued growth in the technology sector.

But be careful. Despite ‘pundits’ suggesting the S&P 500 could hit 6,600 or higher this tear – we are now in pricey territory and a pullback is likely due soon.

S&P 500 one-year chart

S&P 500 one-year chart

S&P 500 touches new record high!

Stocks rose on Wednesday 22nd January 2024 with the S&P 500 reaching a new all-time high, as technology shares including Nvidia and Oracle surged on optimism surrounding artificial intelligence and President Donald Trump’s new term in office.

The S&P 500 advanced after hitting an intraday record of 6,100.81, exceeding the last milestone touched in December 2024 before pulling back. The index closed at 6,086.37, slightly below its all-time closing high.

S&P 500 one-month chart as of Wednesday 22nd January 2024

S&P 500 one-month chart as of Wednesday 22nd January 2024

The S&P’s move to an all-time high comes as investors witnessed a December 2024 pullback. Despite the index ending last year with a 23% gain, the S&P 500 shed 2.5% in December 2024, as traders fretted that the Federal Reserve wouldn’t be able to cut rates as much as anticipated.

That lacklustre performance bled into the first few trading sessions of 2025, but some data indicating modest easing on the inflation front and good earnings results have helped the market recover.

Trump’s SEC prepares new ‘crypto task force’ to regulate the industry

Crypto regulation

On 21st January 2025, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced the formation of a new cryptocurrency task force under the leadership of President Donald Trump.

This initiative marks a significant shift in the regulatory landscape for digital assets, aiming to provide a comprehensive and clear framework for the industry.

Task force

The task force, led by Commissioner Hester Peirce, also known as ‘Crypto Mom,’ is designed to address the regulatory challenges that have plagued the crypto industry for years.

The primary objectives of the task force include drawing clear regulatory lines, providing realistic paths to registration, crafting sensible disclosure frameworks, and deploying enforcement resources judiciously.

This approach contrasts sharply with the previous administration’s reliance on enforcement actions, which often left the industry in a state of confusion and uncertainty.

The announcement has generated a wave of optimism among crypto enthusiasts and investors. The price of Bitcoin, for instance, saw a notable increase following the news, reflecting the market’s positive reception.

But before this announcement, Bitcoin was already in an upward trajectory following the positive news swirling around Trump after he won the U.S. election.

Industry leaders are hopeful that the new regulatory environment will foster innovation while protecting investors and maintaining market integrity.

Commodity Futures Trading Commission

One of the key aspects of the task force’s mandate is to collaborate with other government agencies, Congress, and international bodies to ensure a cohesive regulatory approach.

This includes working closely with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and other federal departments to harmonize regulations and provide technical assistance to Congress as it considers changes to the existing legal framework.

The task force’s formation is seen as a pivotal moment for the crypto industry, signalling a more welcoming and structured regulatory environment. As the task force begins its work, the industry eagerly anticipates the development of clear and practical guidelines that will support the growth and maturation of the digital asset market.

Trump announces massive U.S. AI investment backed by Oracle, OpenAI and Softbank

U.S. AI investment

President Donald Trump announced a joint venture with OpenAI, Oracle and Softbank to invest billions of dollars in artificial intelligence infrastructure in the U.S.

The project, dubbed Stargate, was unveiled at the White House by Trump, Softbank CEO Masayoshi Son, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison.

The executives committed to invest an initial $100 billion and up to $500 billion over the next four years in the project, which will be set up as a separate company.

Softbank’s Son had reportedly already promised a four-year, $100-billion investment when he recently visited then-President-elect Trump at his Mar-a-Lago resort.

And this new AI investment is over and above the investments from the likes of Microsoft, Google, Apple, Anthropic and many others already in progress.

UK FTSE 100 back in favour as it breaks new highs!

FTSE 100

The FTSE 100, the UK’s premier stock market index, has recently reached unprecedented new highs, marking a significant milestone in the UK financial world.

On 20th January 2025, the FTSE 100 closed at a record high of 8,548, surpassing the 8,500 barrier for the first time.

This achievement is a testament to the resilience and strength of the UK’s largest companies, even amid global economic uncertainties.

Several factors have contributed to this remarkable performance. Firstly, the anticipation of potential interest rate cuts by the Bank of England has fueled investor optimism. Lower interest rates typically reduce borrowing costs for companies, encouraging investment and expansion, which in turn boosts stock prices.

Additionally, the recent rise in oil prices has significantly benefited major oil companies like BP and Shell, which are key components of the FTSE 100.

FTSE 100 reaching new highs – one month chart as of 22nd January 2025 (08:21)

The banking sector has also played a crucial role in driving the index higher. With full-year earnings reports expected soon strong performance from banks could further propel the FTSE 100.

Furthermore, the index’s composition, which includes a substantial number of companies with global operations, has allowed it to benefit from the weaker pound. A weaker pound makes UK exports more competitive and increases the value of overseas earnings when converted back to sterling.

Market analysts are now speculating whether the FTSE 100 could reach the 9,000 mark in the coming months. While this would represent a significant rise from current levels, it is not entirely out of reach given the current momentum and favorable economic conditions.

However, some caution that the index’s rapid ascent may be followed by periods of volatility, especially as global economic conditions evolve.

In conclusion, the FTSE 100’s recent surge to new highs is a reflection of the robust performance of its constituent companies and the broader economic environment.

As investors continue to navigate the complexities of the global market, the FTSE 100 remains a key barometer of the health and vitality of the UK economy.

Nvidia unveils new powerful mini-AI computer designed for developers

AI chip

Nvidia is pushing the boundaries of AI technology with its new mini-AI computer, Project DIGITS, recently unveiled at CES 2025

Priced at $3,000, this mini powerhouse aims to bring cutting-edge AI capabilities to individual desks, making it accessible for AI researchers, data scientists, and students who need to develop and test AI models locally.

At the heart of Project DIGITS is Nvidia’s GB10 Grace Blackwell Superchip, a remarkable component that promises up to 1 petaflop of AI performance. This level of computational power enables the mini-AI computer to run large AI models with up to 200 billion parameters, making it suitable for some of the most complex AI tasks.

The computer features 128GB of unified DDR5X memory and up to 4TB of NVMe storage, ensuring that users have ample space and speed to handle data-intensive applications. This combination of memory and storage is particularly beneficial for those who work with large datasets or need to run multiple AI experiments simultaneously.

One of the standout feature of Project DIGITS is its focus on local AI development. By providing a powerful AI platform that doesn’t rely on cloud infrastructure, Nvidia is addressing the needs of developers who require immediate, on-demand AI capabilities. This local approach not only offers faster performance but also enhances data privacy and security, as sensitive data doesn’t need to be transmitted over the internet.

Nvidia’s Project DIGITS is set to be available from Nvidia and its manufacturing partners starting in May 2025. With its impressive specifications and focus on local AI development, this mini-AI supercomputer is poised to become an essential tool for those looking to innovate and iterate on AI projects. Whether you’re an AI enthusiast, a seasoned data scientist, or a curious student, Project DIGITS promises to bring powerful AI capabilities directly to your workspace.

Warning issued for stock market bubble

AI bubble

Howard Marks, a widely respected value investor and co-founder of Oaktree Capital Management, recently issued a memo highlighting several cautionary signs of a potential bubble in the stock market.

Marks, who famously foresaw the dot-com bubble, pointed out that today’s high market valuations could lead to poor returns over the long term or even sharp declines in the near term.

Marks reportedly noted that the S&P 500’s current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is around 22, which is near the top of the historical range. He explained that higher P/E ratios have historically led to lower returns in the long run.

Marks also expressed concern about the enthusiasm surrounding new technologies like AI, which has driven up the prices of companies like Nvidia.

Marks emphasized that investors should not be indifferent to today’s market valuations and should be cautious about the potential for a market correction.

He also raised questions about the role of automated buying from passive investors and the presumption that the largest companies will always succeed.

China’s electric vehicle boom is becoming increasingly focused on hybrids

Hybrid vehicle

Hybrid-powered vehicles are becoming more popular than battery-only ones in China, according to latest full-year reports, even as consumers move away from fossil-fuel-only cars.

Market leader BYD reported that well over half of the 4.3 million passenger cars it sold in 2024 were hybrid-powered, marking a significant reversal from 2023.

Chinese electric car start-ups that have exclusively sold battery-powered vehicles generally delivered fewer cars in 2024 compared companies that also offered hybrid models.

S&P 500 enjoyed a 23% gain in 2024 but 2025 may not be so good

The S&P 500 index witnessed big gains right from the start of 2024. In the first quarter of the year, it jumped up 10.20%. That’s around more than 10 times its average gain since 2000.

However, the momentum couldn’t be sustained as the S&P added 3.9% and 5.5% in the second and third quarter of 2024. In any other year, investors might not have been disappointed with those figures. But the index’s first-quarter performance set expectations so high that subsequent quarters seemed to pale in comparison.

In the final quarter of 2024, the S&P limped to a gain of just 1.9%. Making things worse, we did not get a 2024 Santa rally.

Of course, a gain is a good. But it’s hard not to e just a little disappointed when looking back at the highs we enjoyed in early 2024.

That said, a relatively weak end to the year wasn’t enough to dent the gains of the S&P 500 in the early part of 2024, where the index surged 23.30%. The index recorded no fewer than 57 record closes and this on the back of a 24.2% rise in 2023.

Big tech and Artificial intelligence stocks (the Magnificent Seven in particular) were behind much of 2024′s gains. Shares of Nvidia were up by around 171%, while Broadcom jumped 108%. To place this in context – the Magnificent 7’ stocks were responsible for more than half the S&P 500′s 2024 gain. It does beg the question – is the initial AI hype over for now or is there more to come? Has AI settled for the moment?

Uncertainties await the markets in 2025. Investors will have to contend with the incoming Trump administration’s policies, possibly higher-than-expected interest rates for the year, which in turn are keeping Treasury yields elevated, among other headwinds.

Trumps tariffs are on the way.

Nvidia in correction territory amid Nasdaq highs

AI microchip

Nvidia recently entered correction territory, with its stock falling over 10% from its peak. This decline comes after a robust rally fueled by investor excitement around AI technology.

Despite Nvidia’s slip, the Nasdaq Composite continues to soar to new highs, driven by strong performances from other tech giants like Apple, Microsoft, and Alphabet.

The market’s mixed signals reflect a broader trend of sector rotation. Investors are taking profits from Nvidia after its impressive gains and reallocating their capital to other promising tech stocks. This strategy allows investors to lock in profits while still capitalising on the overall bullish sentiment in the tech sector.

The Nasdaq’s resilience, despite Nvidia’s downturn, highlights the strength and diversity of the technology sector. While Nvidia’s correction is a reminder of the volatility inherent in high-growth stocks, the broader market remains optimistic about the future of technology and innovation.

Market analysts suggest that Nvidia’s correction may be a healthy pause, providing an opportunity for the stock to consolidate before potentially resuming its upward trajectory. As the tech landscape continues to evolve, both Nvidia and its peers remain at the forefront of driving the next wave of digital transformation.

Investors should stay vigilant, monitoring both market trends and individual stock performance to navigate this dynamic environment effectively.

Nvidia is still holding its $3.2 trillion market cap valuation reached this year.

Nvidia one month chart as of 16th December 2024

Nvidia one month chart as of 16th December 2024

Apple launches its Apple Intelligence – ChatGPT integration with Siri

Apple Intelligence

Apple has finally rolled out updates for iPhone on Wednesday 11th December 2024, iPad, and Mac software, featuring the highly anticipated ChatGPT integration with Siri.

The integration is activated when Siri is posed with complex questions. If a question is deemed more suitable for ChatGPT by Apple’s software, Siri will request user consent to utilise the OpenAI service. Apple has incorporated privacy safeguards into this feature, ensuring that OpenAI does not retain any requests. This integration employs the GPT-4o model from OpenAI.

No OpenAI account is necessary for Apple users to engage with the ChatGPT feature, although Apple offers paid upgrades for ChatGPT. Additionally, ChatGPT can be accessed via certain text menus.

The launch of iOS 18.2 marks a pivotal point for Apple, which is banking on Apple Intelligence to spearhead the marketing for its iPhone 16 series. Apple Intelligence encompasses a range of artificial intelligence capabilities. The ChatGPT integration was initially revealed in June 2024.

The inaugural segment of Apple Intelligence was introduced in October 2024, including text editing tools capable of proofreading or rephrasing, a revamped Siri interface that illuminates the entire phone screen, and a summary of notifications.

Next year, Apple plans to introduce a further update to Apple Intelligence, promising substantial enhancements to Siri that will enable it to perform tasks within apps.

Many investors are of the opinion that the addition of features to Apple Intelligence will enhance iPhone sales, initiate an upgrade cycle, and possibly establish Apple as a frontrunner in consumer AI.

This integration marks a significant triumph for OpenAI by showcasing its flagship product to millions of iPhone users. The financial details of the partnership between Apple and OpenAI remain undisclosed.

To install and utilise Apple Intelligence, users must have an iPhone 15, iPhone 15 Pro, or any iPhone 16 model, despite the fact that ChatGPT integration mainly operates on cloud servers – iPhone owners can enable software updates in the General tab of the Settings app.

Upon updating to the newest Apple software, users will be prompted to configure Apple Intelligence. Their devices will have to download substantial files, including Apple’s AI models, which are necessary for the service’s functionality.

The updates also bring Apple’s image creation app, named Playground, which generates images from people’s descriptions or prompts, and Image Wand, a tool that lets users edit out objects or imperfections from photos.

Apple finally issue a version of AI – not just any AI but Apple Intelligence, whatever that really means.

Tesla shares climb to record high – boosted by Trump election victory

Tesla EV

Tesla shares soared to an all-time high on Wednesday exceeding their previous record set in 2021, driven by a post-election rally and heightened enthusiasm Wall Street for Elon Musk’s electric vehicle company.

The stock increased to an intraday high of $415, exceeding its previous peak by 50 cents and closed above its highest finish of $409.97 recorded on 4th November 2021.

Tesla’s market has increased reportedly increased by around 69% this year, with nearly all of those gains occurring after Trump’s election victory early last month. The stock’s 38% rally in represented its monthly performance since January 2023 and ranks as the 10th best on record.

Reportedly according to Federal Election Commission filings, Musk invested $277 million into a pro-Trump campaign effort and transformed his support for the Republican nominee into a full-time job in the lead-up to the election. He financed an operation in swing states to register voters and utilised his social media platform, to promote his chosen candidate, often disseminating misinformation.

The world’s wealthiest individual, whose net worth has increased to over $360 billion, is poised to head the Trump administration’s ‘Department of Government Efficiency,’ DOGE – together with former Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy.

The newly formed DOGE will be tasked with culling government bureaucracy by streamlining and junking departments.

Musk’s role may grant him authority over the budgets and staffing of federal agencies, well as the capability to advocate for the removal of inconvenient regulations. During a Tesla earnings call in October, Musk reportedly stated intention to leverage his influence with Trump to create ‘Federal approval for autonomous vehicles.’ At present, approvals are at the state level.

Is business now openly running he U.S. government?