Observe. Think. Chat. Do. Trade. Repeat…
This quote is attributed to Nikola Tesla, a Serbian-American inventor, engineer and physicist who is best known for his contributions to the development of alternating current electricity, wireless communication and radio.
The Bank of England (BoE) announced another increase in its base rate, from 5% to 5.25%, the highest level in over 15 years as of 3rd August 2023. This is the 14th consecutive rise since December 2021, when the BoE started to tighten monetary policy in response to rising inflation.
The Bank said that inflation, which fell to 7.9% in June, remained well above its 2% target and that further action was needed to bring it down. It also cited the risks posed by the global economic situation, especially the conflict in Ukraine and the slowdown in China.
The rate hike will affect millions of borrowers and savers across the UK. Fixed-rate mortgages will not change until the end of their term, but new deals will be hit borrowers hard. Savers may see some benefit from higher interest rates, but only if banks and building societies pass on the increase, which they are slow to do.
Bear in mind that for the past 15 years many have benefitted from ultra low interest rates and cheap money, this is not the ‘norm’. And now, as more ‘normal’ interest rates return it will initially disrupt financial stability for some, and it will be difficult for many for a time. But money has been cheap and mortgages have always been the cheapest way to borrow long term and that is still the case – even if it doesn’t feel like it right now.
The Bank of England’s decision was widely expected by market analysts, but some have warned that further rate rises could damage the UK economy, which is already showing signs of weakness. House prices are falling, manufacturing activity is contracting and consumer confidence is low.
The prime minister, Rishi Sunak, said he was disappointed that inflation was not falling faster, but claimed that he was making progress and that there was ‘light at the end of the tunnel‘.
And a train too if he isn’t careful!
Interest rates have been increasing across the world in recent months.
The Bank of England’s latest rate hike means the UK now has the highest rates in the G7 – a group of the world’s seven largest so-called ‘advanced’ economies.
That’s higher than France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Canada and the U.S.
Let’s not talk about inflation, just yet…
The party-gate scandal lead to SERVING members of the UK government being fined, including the then prime minster (since sacked by the party) – and the then chancellor of the exchequer (now our serving prime minister).
You really can’t make this stuff up.
Latest reports suggest that the number of people heading out to the shops fell for the first time in July in 14 years as the UK struggled with one of the wettest months on record.
Overall footfall was down by 0.3% (that doesn’t seem high to me) – in the first drop in July since 2009, latest reports suggest. High Streets were hit hardest but shopping centres and retail parks got a boost in visitor numbers.
Soft play areas and cinemas have enjoyed a business boost. Also holiday parks are taking last minute bookings as discounts are offered.
Aside from the rain, the rising cost of living and rail disruption were also behind the fall. Shoppers have been battling with one of the wettest Julys on record, according to provisional reports.
High Streets in coastal towns were especially hard hit, with footfall dropping 4.6%, as the rain kept people away from beaches.
July’s figures also appeared to demonstrate the harsh reality of the impact of interest rate rises on consumers, combined with rain and the continuing transport and rail turmoil traveller have to endure in the UK.
Digressing from the real report here, which is the slowdown in UK shopping habits due to the rain – we ought to remember that in the South West there is a hose pipe ban. This ban has been in force since summer 2022! And, the UK looses excessive amounts of water through leaks.
Ironic isn’t it. All that rain and we just don’t store enough! How do other ‘hot’ countries manage? Anyway, at least we can go shopping, or not as the case may be!
XRP Ripple is a payment settlement system and currency exchange network that can process transactions globally. It is designed to facilitate cross-border payments by using XRP, a cryptocurrency, as a bridge currency between different fiat currencies.
XRP Ripple claims to offer several advantages over SWIFT, the system most financial institutions use for international money transfers. XRP transactions can be completed in as little as 3 to 5 seconds and transaction fees are just 0.0001 XRP. SWIFT, on the other hand, can take up to 5 business days and charge higher fees.
However, despite XRP Ripple’s efforts to disrupt the industry, SWIFT has not been idle. The interbank payments network has recently launched SWIFT Go, a new service that enables businesses and consumers to send low-value cross-border payments anywhere in the world in seconds with full transparency and security.
SWIFT has also reportedly completed a successful cross-border payment from Australia to Singapore in only 13 seconds in a trial.
Therefore, it is not clear whether banks will adopt XRP Ripple as a payment system to replace SWIFT, or whether they will stick with the incumbent network that has been improving its speed and efficiency. The outcome may depend on factors such as regulation, customer demand, and market competition.
It may also depend on costs and speed guarantees – banks will love to save money on money transfers.
Now that an international money transfer can be completed in seconds and not days – what will the client be charged?
Ripple is confident U.S. banks will start wanting to use XRP for cross-border transactions after a judge gave the firm a partial victory in its fight against the SEC.
A judge ruled that XRP cryptocurrency Ripple is closely associated with, but was not in itself necessarily a security, in a development with major implications for the digital asset industry.
It wasn’t a total victory for Ripple, however – the judge also ruled that sales of XRP by Ripple to institutional buyers do count as unregistered sales of securities.
Nintendo Co. has reported a new high for its first-quarter profit, thanks to the blockbuster launch of its latest Legend of Zelda game.
The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom, released in May 2023, sold more than 18.5 million copies in the first quarter and received universal acclaim. The game features an open-world adventure with stunning graphics and gameplay, and is considered one of the best titles on the Switch platform. Interestingly, the game is played offline.
The outstanding performance of Zelda has helped Nintendo prop up flagging sales of its Switch console, which is now in its seventh year on the market and faces competition from rival console makers Sony Group Corp. and Microsoft Corp. Nintendo has not announced any major games for the rest of the fiscal year, nor has it revealed any plans for a successor to its flagship console.
Nintendo maintained its full-year forecast for the console of 15 million units, which would be an impressive feat at this stage of the console’s lifecycle. The company also has a strong pipeline of titles for the year-end shopping season, including Detective Pikachu Returns and Super Mario Bros. Wonder.
Nintendo saw a boost from the ‘The Super Mario Bros. Movie‘, based on the company’s best-known characters, which has generated more than $1 billion at the box office since its April release. The film was produced by Universal Studios.
The U.S. has lost its top credit rating from Fitch Ratings, one of the three major credit rating agencies, due to its recent political gridlock over the debt ceiling and deteriorating fiscal situation. How much does this matter?
Fitch re-calculated the U.S.’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating (IDR) from AAA to AA+ early August 2023, reportedly saying it was because of a ‘steady deterioration in standards of governance‘ and a lack of confidence in fiscal management.
The downgrade comes despite the resolution of the U.S. debt ceiling crisis in June 2023, when Congress agreed to suspend the $31.4tn borrowing limit until January 2025. Fitch warned that the U.S. faces serious long-term fiscal challenges, such as rising debt levels, unfunded social security and Medicare obligations, and the real possibility of a recession.
Janet Yellen, the U.S. Treasury Secretary and the White House strongly disagreed with Fitch’s decision, calling it ‘arbitrary’ and ‘bizarre‘. They stated that the U.S. economy is fundamentally strong and that Treasury securities remain the world’s safest and most liquid assets. They reportedly suggested that Fitch’s calculation model is flawed and outdated.
The downgrade is unlikely to have a significant impact on the U.S.’s borrowing costs or reputation, as it still retains its triple ‘A’ rating from the other two major credit rating agencies, Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s.
However, it could increase market volatility and pressure the U.S. to address its fiscal imbalances. But according to Janet Yellen these do not exist and there is no problem…?
‘One minute I’m in work and the next…?’ ‘Is this AI again?’
The day the blue bird flew away – Twitter rebrands as X – Taking Stock
The UK government has announced a plan to issue over 100 new oil and gas licences in the North Sea, as part of its drive to make Britain more energy independent and reduce reliance on imports. The Prime Minister said that even when the UK reaches net zero by 2050, a quarter of its energy needs will still come from oil and gas.
The new licences will be subject to a climate compatibility test and will aim to unlock carbon capture and storage and hydrogen opportunities in the region. The government has also approved two new carbon capture projects in Scotland and the Humber, which are expected to be delivered by 2030.
The move has been criticised by environmental groups, who argue that opening up new fossil fuel projects is incompatible with the UK’s climate goals and will undermine its leadership ahead of the COP26 summit in Glasgow.
They also question the claim that domestic production is cleaner than imports, as the UK’s oil and gas sector is still responsible for significant emissions.
The government has said that it will support the transition of the North Sea industry to low-carbon technologies and protect more than 200,000 jobs in the sector. The UK government has also pledged to invest in renewable energy sources, such as offshore wind, to diversify the UK’s energy mix.
This quote is attributed to George Orwell, a British writer and journalist who is best known for his novels 1984 and Animal Farm, which are critical of totalitarian regimes and propaganda.
The Buffet Indicator is a valuation multiple used to assess how expensive or cheap the aggregate stock market is at a given point in time. It was proposed by investor Warren Buffett in 2001, who called it ‘probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment‘ . It compares the total value of all publicly traded securities in the U.S. to the U.S. GDP .
The current value of the Buffet Indicator is 181%, (July 2023) – which suggests that the U.S. stock market is reportedly worth $48.37 trillion, while the U.S. GDP is $26.74 trillion.
This ratio is 50.50% above the historical trend line, suggesting that the stock market is overvalued relative to GDP. Buffett warned that if the ratio approaches 200%, ‘you are playing with fire‘.
Buffett Indicator: $48.85T ÷ $26.91T = 182%
The Buffett Indicator expresses the value of the U.S. stock market in terms of the size of the U.S. economy. If the stock market value is growing much faster than the actual economy, then it may be in a bubble.
Meta Platforms, Inc. (Nasdaq: META), formerly known as Facebook, has seen its stock price soar in 2023, a straight nine month gain in a massive turnaround after a dismal performance in 2022.
Meta is the parent company of social media apps such as Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and Messenger, as well as the Oculus VR headset and other ventures.
Meta’s founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg has declared 2023 as the ‘Year of Efficiency‘ for the company, as it tries to cut costs and streamline its operations. The company has also announced layoffs of about 10% of its workforce in 2022 and 2023, as part of its restructuring efforts.
Meta’s stock has almost doubled since January, making it among the top performers on the S&P 500. The company has also seen a boost in the number of daily active users on Facebook, reaching two billion as of the end of December 2022. Meta’s net worth is currently at $89.9 billion, making Zuckerberg the 12th wealthiest person on the planet, according to Bloomberg’s Billionaire Index.
Meta’s stock surge comes after a sharp decline in 2022, when the company faced regulatory scrutiny, public backlash and technical glitches over its plans to expand into the metaverse, a virtual reality world where people can interact with each other and through digital content.
Meta’s stock plummeted by over 60% last year, as Zuckerberg struggled to sell Wall Street on his vision for the future of social media.
Meta is still betting on the metaverse as its long-term goal, and has been investing heavily in AI, VR and AR technologies. The company is reportedly working on a new social media app called ‘Instagram for your thoughts‘, which would allow users to share their thoughts and emotions using brain-computer interfaces.
The app could launch as soon as next month, according to latest reports.
The metaverse is coming!
Albert Einstein 1879 – 1955
The building society said house prices dropped by 3.8%, which is the biggest decline since July 2009. Nationwide said mortgage interest rates remain high, making affordability a difficult for house-buyers. Mortgage costs hit the highest level for 15 years in July 2023 as lenders grappled with inflation and uncertainty over rates set by the (BoE) Bank of England. The BoE recently raised interest rates by 0.5% to 5% in a belated efforet to curb rampant inflation which is currently well above the 2% target.
The average price of a home in the UK is £260,828 – 4.5% below the August 2022 peak. Many first-time buyers would welcome a drop in house prices, which have climbed in recent years, including during the pandemic.
But despite July’s fall, higher mortgage rates mean housing affordability ‘remains stretched‘, Nationwide said.
*Indicative guide only (prices adjusted for inflation).
Euro zone inflation fell in July, and new growth figures showed economic activity picking up in the second quarter of this year, but economists still fear a recession.
Headline inflation in the EU was 5.3% in July, according to preliminary data released end of July 2023, lower than the 5.5% registered in June. However, it still remains substantially above the European Central Bank’s 2% target.
GDP growth accelerated in the second quarter, expanding by 0.3%, higher than the 0.2% expected by analysts.
‘Be yourself; everyone else is already taken.‘ – This quote, which is credited to Oscar Wilde, tells us that we are unique and valuable and to be ourselves and not imitate others. You are original.
Mr Musk has long said that he wants to transform his social media firm, which he bought last year for $44 billion, into a much larger platform.
He has previously praised WeChat – a so-called ‘everything app‘ that combines chat, dating, payments and social media – and has said creating something “even close to that with Twitter… would be an immense success”.
In a post on X this week, Mr Musk said that over the coming months, ‘we will add comprehensive communications and the ability to conduct your entire financial world’.
He will hope that growing X will lead to a revenue recovery – the company has lost almost half its advertising revenue since Mr Musk bought it, and it is struggling under a heavy debt load.
He has successfully disrupted several industries with his ventures such as Tesla, SpaceX, Neuralink, and The Boring Company. He may be able to bring some fresh ideas and solutions to the social media space with X. It will be interesting to see if he adopts an existing digital payment system or develops his own. XRP, for instance – could be a good fit.
WeChat is a ‘super-app’ that combines messaging, social media, payments, e-commerce, entertainment, news, and more. It is owned by Tencent, one of China’s largest tech companies, and has over 1.2 billion monthly active users, mostly in mainland China.
WeChat users can do almost anything within the app, from ordering food to booking tickets to paying bills, without leaving the app. WeChat also hosts millions of mini-apps that are created by third-party developers and businesses to offer various services and functions to users. It is like WhatsApp, Facebook, Apple Pay, Uber, Amazon, Tinder and a whole lot more rolled into one. Launched by technology giant Tencent in 2011. WeChat is now used by almost all of China’s 1.4 billion pupulation (1.2 billion users seems to be the latest concensus).
WeChat’s huge success in China is arguably down to two major factors. For one, most people in China access WeChat on smartphones, rather than desktop computers, due to the relatively late development of the internet in the country. And two, China’s lack of competition regulation – which contrasts with most Western countries – allows an app like WeChat to potentially effectively block rival platforms.
Could Mr Musk make a similar app work outside China? We may be finding out soon – and experts believe it may all depend on digital payments and his ‘system’ to implement this everyday task.
A major difference between China and the West is the widespread adoption of digital payment technology.
While shops in China are legally obliged to accept cash, in practice, digital payments are far more common.
This difference, may be an obstacle to Mr Musk’s ambitions. It will take the Western world longer to implement a truly cashless or credit card free society.
Elon Musk has been an admirer of WeChat for a long time. He once said that WeChat is ‘so usable and helpful to daily life‘ in China, and that he wanted to achieve something similar with Twitter, no X. He also said that buying Twitter was an ‘accelerant’ to creating X, the everything app.
Mr Musk has hinted that he plans to add more features and functionalities to Twitter, such as video, communications, and financial services. He also said that the Twitter name did not make sense in the new context, so he decided to rename it as X, a brand that he has used before for his online banking business that later became PayPal.
Is the Super App a natural progression and development for good or yet another infringement on our freedom, liberty and privacy. Is it even necessary?
In China, we have witnessed a level of state control interference over the internet that has reportedly made it extremely dangerous for people to speak out against the government on WeChat.
It is not unusual for dissenting voices to have their accounts suspended for days or weeks for something they have said in Chats or on Moments.
Even people sharing seemingly uncontroversial information have found themselves on the wrong side of government censors and had their accounts and chat groups shut down.
Everything Everywhere – a super ‘system’ monitoring what you do, what you buy, where you go, when, how, who you talk to, what you say – all your movements, comments, discussions and activity will be known by someone else, somewhere, even your private discussions, holiday activity and medical details will be visible in the ‘system’.
Some may say this has happened already, but this ‘super-app’ will be a massive step closer to ‘life without privacy’.
Someone, somewhere is monitoring you.
Apple shares previously failed to close at levels that would have given the company a market cap of $3 trillion, despite a promising intra-day move in January 2022.
Apple has become the first publicly traded company ever to be worth $3 trillion. The company’s market valuation reached this milestone on January 3rd, 2022. Apple’s stock briefly eclipsed $182.86 a share before closing at $182.01. The milestone is mostly symbolic but it represents investor recognition of Apple’s success over the past few years as the company has reported several record-breaking quarters of big growth in all of its product lines.
Apple is not just a hardware player – it has an even bigger slice of the tech’ consumer pie than you may imagine, especially in the cloud computing arena.
Apple has regained its $3 trillion valuation to become the first-listed company, in modern times, to reach the $3 trillion milestone again. It acheived this on 30th June 2023. Shares climbed more than 2% to hit a record $193.97. However, by direct comparison and by todays valuation, the East India Trading Company beat Apple to this accolade long-a-go in the 17th Century having acheived a higher value equivalent to $7 trillion in todays money.
C’mon Apple you laggard!
Arthur C. Clarke, in full Sir Arthur Charles Clarke, (born 1917, Minehead, Somerset, England – died 2008 ). English writer, notable for both his science fiction and his nonfiction. His best known works are the script he wrote with American film director Stanley Kubrick for 2001: A Space Odyssey (1968) and the novel of that film.
Threads is a new app, owned by Meta (Facebook), and built by the Instagram team, for sharing public conversations akin to Twitter. You log in using your Instagram account and posts can be up to 500 characters long and include links, photos, and videos with a 5 minute limit. Threads is Meta’s first app envisioned to be compatible with an open social networking protocol
Threads is seen by many as a direct competitor to Twitter, the social media platform owned by billionaire Elon Musk. Threads has been setting records for user growth since its launch on July 5, 2023, with politicians, celebrities, news creators and users joining the platform. Threads surpassed 100 million user ‘sign-ups’ within five days of launch according to information from Meta.
Threads is projected to contribute a staggering $8 billion to Meta’s annual revenue by 2025. The report further highlights that Threads has already garnered 1 million sign-ups and is on track to reach an impressive milestone of 1 billion users in the near future.
However, some recent news reports suggest that Threads has encountered challenges in retaining its users and competing with Twitter. Threads ‘daily active users’ is reporteded to have fallen from 49 million two days after its launch, to 23.6 million users about three weeks later in July 2023, according to reports. The app’s average usage time also fell from 21 minutes to 6 minutes over the same timeframe.
According to a recent news article, Google says people should use its search engine to check whether information provided by Bard is actually accurate, as it may display inaccurate or offensive information that doesn’t represent Google’s views. Just Google views I wonder…?
Google’s UK boss Debbie Weinstein said Bard was not really the place that you go to search for specific information, but rather an experiment best suited for collaboration around problem solving and creating new ideas.
According to an Android Authority article, both Bard and ChatGPT can hallucinate or confidently lie when asked about obscure topics. Bard does offer a link to search results and will sometimes cite a source or two. However, Google states that Bard can even lie about its own inner workings so you cannot trust everything it says…?
According to a report by Marie Haynes, Bard predicts it will generate accurate responses 85% of the time by September 2023, but in an experiment, it posted an accuracy score of 63%, meaning it had incorrect information in more than 1/3 of its responses
Early days, or habouring a problem for the future?
The FEDNOW payment system is a new instant payment infrastructure developed by the Federal Reserve that allows financial institutions of every size across the U.S. to provide safe and efficient instant payment services.
It went live on July 20, 2023 and enables individuals and businesses to send and receive money in near real-time, 24/7/365, through their depository institution accounts.
The service is a flexible, neutral platform that supports a broad variety of instant payments and offers optional features such as fraud prevention tools, request for payment capability, and tools to support payment inquiries.
FedNow is the first new payment rail in the United States since the introduction of the Automated Clearing House (ACH) in the early 1970s.
Is this a possibly a pre-emptive strike to get ahead of international digital currency deployment and set the scene to adopt a digital payment structure of a new ‘crypto coin system’ for the future – the digital dollar?
Rolls-Royce share price soared by 20% in july 2023 after it raised its profit guidance and reported strong demand in its jet engine and defence businesses.
The company, which makes engines for aeroplanes, ships and submarines, repoertedly said it expects to make between £1.2 billion and £1.4 billion in underlying operating profit this year, up from its previous forecast of £800 million to £1 billion.
The profit upgrade reflects the improvement in Rolls-Royce’s operations under its new chief executive, who took over in January with a mandate to turn the companyaround. A transformation programme was launched to boost productivity, efficiency and innovation across all divisions. It appears to be working.
One of the main drivers of Rolls-Royce’s recovery is the revival in air travel and flying hours as Covid restrictions were eased. The company charges customers for the number of hours its jet engines run, which have dramatically rebounded from the slump caused by the pandemic. Rolls-Royce said it expects to generate £750 million in free cash flow this year, up from its previous target of £500 million.
Another factor behind Rolls-Royce’s growth is the increased defence spending following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The company makes propulsion systems for Royal Navy warships and submarines, as well as engines for military aircraft. Rolls-Royce reportedly said its defence unit had delivered ‘exceptional‘ performance and secured new contracts.
Rolls-Royce’s share price hit its highest level since March 2020, when the prospect of travel bans caused aviation-related stocks to plunge. The stock has almost doubled in value this year, making it the best-performing stock on the FTSE 100 over the past six months.
Analysts and investors have welcomed the signs of progress at Rolls-Royce, which had struggled with profitability and cash flow issues even before the pandemic.
Rolls-Royce is scheduled to report its half-year results next week, which are expected to show profits of between £660 million and £680 million some analysts suggest, more than double market expectations. The company said it remains confident in its medium-term outlook and its ability to deliver value for customers and shareholders.
Definitely one to watch. It’s been on my ‘share radar’ for a couple years now. Share price hit intraday high of £1.94 on 28th July 2023