Synthesia creates AI avatars that can convey human emotions

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AI startup Synthesia on Thursday 25th April 2024 announced its ‘Expressive Avatars’. These are AI-generated digital avatars that can express human emotions including happiness, sadness, and frustration.

Synthesia, supported by the tech giant Nvidia, reportedly secured an investment of $90 million in 2023, reaching a valuation close to $1 billion.

This video was created using the Synthesia platform, it took just two minutes to create.

Meta loses $200 billion in value despite good profits shown in latest figures

Stock down

Meta Platforms Inc. suffered a serious loss, witnessing its market value plummet by $200 billion.

The decline happened following the company’s first-quarter earnings call, during which CEO Mark Zuckerberg highlighted the company’s substantial investments in artificial intelligence (AI) and the Metaverse, instead of concentrating on immediate revenue streams.

Despite a 27% increase in revenue to $36.46 billion and a net income that more than doubled to a $12.37 billion (rounded), investors were unsettled by the company’s projections for future expenses.

Shares dropped by 15.5% as Zuckerberg outlined expensive future projects, including the expansion of business messaging and the integration of ads into AI interactions.

Meta’s stock took a 15% hit in extended trading, bringing its market capitalization down to around $1.2 trillion, still a high valuation. This highlights the unpredictable nature of tech stocks, especially during significant, unmonetized product development stages.

Meta 1 day chart 24th April 2024

Meta 1 day chart 24th April 2024

Zuckerberg’s prioritization of long-term growth over immediate profits is a gamble, placing a bet on AI and the Metaverse to transform digital interactions.

This strategy carries considerable financial risks, as the recent market reaction has shown. Meta’s future now depends on the successful deployment and monetization of these cutting-edge technologies.

AI energy consumption is shocking!

AI Energy Consumption

Powering artificial intelligence (AI) models takes a substantial toll on our planet’s energy resources.

Delving deeper into AI, it becomes crucial to comprehend the environmental impact of this technological revolution.

Current trends

A new peer-reviewed study featured in ‘Joule‘ highlights the significant energy requirements of AI. The research, carried out by Alex de Vries, a data scientist at the Dutch central bank, provides a quantification of the energy usage linked to the trends in AI capacity and adoption.

The energy appetite of AI

The AI industry is experiencing rapid growth as major technology companies incorporate AI-driven services into their platforms. These applications require significantly more power than traditional ones, resulting in online interactions that are more energy-intensive.

Projected impact

Continuing on the present course, NVIDIA could be dispatching 1.5 million AI server units each year by 2027. If these servers were to run at maximum capacity, they would consume a minimum of 85.4 terawatt-hours of electricity annually. For comparison, this amount of energy surpasses the yearly consumption of numerous small nations.

Comparisons

By 2027, it is projected that global AI-related electricity consumption may rise by 85 to 134 terawatt-hours (TWh) annually. This estimate is on par with the yearly electricity requirements of nations such as the Netherlands, Argentina, and Sweden.

Why sustainability matters

While AI heralds significant breakthroughs, its sustainability is a crucial risk factor to consider. Picture Google’s search engine evolving into a ChatGPT-style chatbot, managing nine billion interactions daily. This would cause energy demands to soar, matching the consumption of a nation like Ireland. Although this scenario isn’t immediately likely due to logistical limitations, it highlights the resource-intensive nature of generative AI applications.

As we explore the AI domain, sustainability should not be neglected. Discussing AI’s risks, such as errors and biases, should also include its environmental impact. Innovation must be balanced with responsible energy use for a sustainable future.

Conclusion

In essence, AI’s demand for power is substantial, and the challenge is to leverage its capabilities while reducing its environmental impact. We must proceed with caution to ensure our technological advances do not compromise the health of our planet.

Tesla shares jump after affordable model announcement despite revenue drop shown in latest accounts

Electric vehicle

Tesla’s profits have significantly decreased so far in 2024, prompting the company to accelerate the introduction of new models.

The company is also reducing its workforce by thousands in an effort to improve its financial outlook. The electric vehicle manufacturer reported earnings of $1.13 billion for the first quarter, a sharp decline from $2.51 billion in the previous year.

Job losses

Owned by billionaire Elon Musk, Tesla plans to lay-off over 6,000 workers across its Texas and California locations. The firm has been challenged by reduced demand and increased competition from more affordable Chinese imports, resulting in a 43% drop in its stock value throughout 2024.

This month, Tesla announced a 10% cut in its global workforce. Revenue figures for the first quarter of 2024 showed a total of $21.3 billion, falling short of the anticipated $22 billion.

However, Tesla’s shares saw a nearly 12.5% increase in after-hours trading following the announcement that the launch of new models would be moved up from the latter half of 2025. The company has yet to disclose the pricing for these upcoming vehicles.

On other Tesla matters…

Mr. Musk’s ‘compensation package’, previously valued at $56 billion, was rejected by a Delaware judge. The judge reportedly determined that Tesla’s directors failed to fulfill their duties to the company when they awarded Mr. Musk the payout.

With the decline in Tesla’s stock value, the compensation package is now estimated to be about $10 billion less, yet it remains larger than the GDP of many small countries.

Musk also appears to have his sights set on creating a Tesla manufacturing hub in India.

Tesla’s Cybertruck was reportedly recalled recently with a suspected accelerator pedal issue.

FTSE 100 closes at new all-time high

FTSE 100 Index

The UK FTSE 100 stock index has reached a new record closing price on Monday 22nd April 2024

The new all-time high was likely propelled by a weakening pound and reduced tensions in the Middle East. The FTSE 100 has been the laggard for many months.

The index concluded Monday at 8023 points, setting a new record and eclipsing its previous peak of 8012 from February of the preceding year.

At the close, it had risen by 1.62%, with retailers such as, Tesco, Sainsbury’s, M&S and Ocado being among the top gainers of the day.

The shares have gained from the depreciating pound since the London Stock Exchange index includes numerous companies with significant international operations.

A depreciated pound lowers the cost of exported goods for overseas buyers and boosts the value of international business transactions.

Update

On Tuesday morning 23rd April 2024 the FTSE 100 climbed to a new intraday high of: 8080

FTSE 100 5 day chart showing the intraday high of Tuesday morning 23rd April 2024

Voyager One phones home for the first time in 5 months

Voyager One

Voyager 1, launched in September 1977, holds the distinction of being the furthest human-made object from Earth.

It embarked on an incredible journey, venturing beyond the boundaries of our solar system and into interstellar space.

Here’s the latest update on this iconic spacecraft

Communication

On 14th November 2023, Voyager 1 experienced an unexpected glitch, rendering its binary communication code with NASA’s flight team incomprehensible.

However, after several months of indecipherable signals, Voyager 1 has resumed clear communication with Earth. On 20th April2024, the spacecraft reported back to its NASA team, detailing its health status for the first time in five months.

Although it is not yet transmitting scientific data, Voyager 1 is providing valuable information regarding the health and functionality of its onboard engineering systems.

Historic

Thirty-five years post-launch, Voyager 1 marked a milestone as the first human-made object to exit the solar system and enter interstellar space.

Six years thereafter, in 2018, Voyager 2 emulated its predecessor, venturing beyond the sun’s dominion. Together, these spacecraft stand as humanity’s lone envoys in the cosmic expanse, bearing our scientific endeavours and inquisitive spirit.

Technical repair

In March, the team operating NASA’s Voyager 1 sent a command to the spacecraft, which triggered its flight data subsystem (FDS) to transmit a complete memory readout to Earth.

The analysis of the memory dump reportedly indicated that the malfunction was due to a piece of corrupted code on a single chip, accounting for approximately 3% of the FDS’s memory.

While it’s not possible to physically repair or replace the chip, the team is adeptly shifting the problematic code within the FDS’s memory. This process apparently involves dividing the code into segments and reallocating them to different storage areas, with the goal of maintaining the smooth operation of Voyager 1’s systems.

Clever

Ultimately, Voyager 1’s recent successful communication serves as a remarkable example of human creativity and determination in space exploration. Even from its extraordinary distance from Earth, the venerable spacecraft continues to provide important updates on its status and insights into the unknowns of interstellar space.

15 billion miles and counting

Voyager 1 is approximately 15 billion miles from home. It takes about 1 day for information to travel from Voyager to Earth. Voyager 1 is travelling at an estimated speed of: 38026

Voyage One mission status

Will Bitcoin experience another growth spurt after the latest halving event?

Bitcoin halving is a significant event in the cryptocurrency world

What is Bitcoin Halving?

Bitcoin halving, which happens roughly every four years, cuts the rate of new Bitcoin creation by half. This event is tied to the method of recording and generating Bitcoins. Transactions are logged on a blockchain, a ledger accessible to all.

Miners compile transactions into blocks and connect them by resolving cryptographic challenges, earning new bitcoins as their reward.

Satoshi Nakamoto, the enigmatic creator of Bitcoin, designed the cryptocurrency to have a maximum circulation of 21 million coins. To ensure this, the Bitcoin protocol halves the reward given to miners every 210,000 blocks, an event that occurs approximately every four years.

The Latest Halving

The latest Bitcoin halving took place in the early hours of Saturday 20th April 2024, reducing the reward for adding a new block of transactions to the blockchain from 6.25 Bitcoins to 3.125. Bitcoin’s halving will persist until the total supply approaches the 21 million cap, anticipated around the year 2140.

Impact on Bitcoin Price

The halving of Bitcoin reduces the number of new coins entering circulation, which, in theory, could drive up the price if demand remains constant.

According to economic principles, a stable demand coupled with a reduced supply should lead to a price increase.

Analysis of the three previous halvings (in 2012, 2016, and 2020) indicates an average price surge of 16% in the 60 days post-halving.

Typically, investors see the highest price increase approximately 500 days following a halving event.

Despite a recent drop from its peak, Bitcoin holds a high-level interest for crypto investors, even with its volatile behaviour. It has posted a 40% increase in 2024 compared to the same period last year.

In summary, the halving of Bitcoin reduces the availability of new coins, which could lead to an increase in value. However, the complete effects may only become apparent gradually over time.

Global police forces take down massive scam website that defrauded thousands of victims

Online fraud

UK police have dismantled a gang that provided a technology service enabling criminals to use fraudulent text messages to defraud victims

Britain’s Metropolitan Police announced on Thursday 18th April 2024 that the ‘LabHost‘ website had been utilised by 2,000 criminals to pilfer personal details from users.

The police have reportedly identified approximately 70,000 UK individuals whose details were compromised via LabHost’s websites. The websites of LabHost have been disrupted and now displays a notice indicating that the services have been seized by law enforcement.

They have arrested 37 people worldwide and are contacting victims affected by the scam.

Phishing scam

Officers say younger people who grew up with the internet were the most likely to fall for the ‘phishing’ scam.

What is ‘phishing’

‘Phishing’ is a type of social engineering attack where perpetrators trick individuals into disclosing sensitive information or downloading malware. This often entails the use of deceptive emails or messages that mimic reputable entities, luring users to input their login details on counterfeit websites.

See Wikipedia definition.

The technology enabled scammers without technical expertise to inundate victims with deceptive messages aimed at eliciting online payments.

Authorities focused on the gang’s website, LabHost, which facilitated the despatch of these messages and steered victims towards counterfeit websites. These sites mimicked authentic online payment or shopping platforms.

ID theft

This operation allowed the perpetrators to pilfer personal identity details, including 480,000 card numbers and 64,000 PIN codes. It was referred to as ‘fullz data‘ in criminal circles, according to the police.

The exact amount of money stolen remains unknown. However, detectives estimate that the LabHost site generated close to £1 million ($1.25 million) in profits.

Meta’s new AI Chatbot has arrived

Meta announces new Chatbot assistant

Meta’s complimentary artificial intelligence (AI) assistant, known as Meta AI, is being introduced across its social media platforms, including WhatsApp, Instagram, Facebook, and Messenger.

The assistant is reportedly designed to respond to queries, craft animations, and produce ‘high-quality’ images, according to Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg in a recent video posting.

Zuckerberg also noted that the company has integrated ‘real-time knowledge’ from Google and Microsoft’s Bing to enhance the assistant’s responses.

The development of Meta AI is based on the company’s most advanced large language model, Meta Llama 3, which was unveiled on the same day – Thursday 18th April 2024.

Surging tech stocks allow world’s largest sovereign wealth fund to post $110 billion profit in Q1

Wealth fund

Norway’s massive sovereign wealth fund reported a first-quarter profit of 1.21 trillion kroner ($109.9 billion) – bolstered by strong returns from its technology stock investments it was announced on Thursday 18th April 2024.

Established in the 1990s, Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, the largest in the world, invests the surplus revenue from the nation’s oil and gas sector. The fund has invested in over 8,800 companies across more than 70 countries to date.

Crypto trading ‘concentration’ apparently raises alarm for EU watchdog

Crypto

Digital assets have soared recently to unprecedented heights and then plummet just as quickly. It’s an extremely volatile financial environment.

Amid this volatility, the European Union’s securities watchdog, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), has sounded a cautionary note.

The Concentration Conundrum

ESMA’s latest report highlights a considerable concern: the high level of concentration in crypto trading. A handful of exchanges, led by Binance, dominate the market. In fact, Binance alone accounts for more than half of all crypto trading activity. While this concentration might seem advantageous from an efficiency standpoint—thanks to economies of scale—it raises significant questions.

The Ripple Effect

Imagine a scenario: Binance, Coinbase or any crypto platform for that matter experiences a catastrophic failure or malfunction. The repercussions would reverberate far beyond its platform.

The entire crypto ecosystem would feel the impact. Investors, traders, and enthusiasts would face disruptions, financial losses, and uncertainty. The interconnectedness of the crypto world amplifies the stakes.

Risk and Resilience

ESMA’s concerns centre on systemic risk. When a single entity dominates a market, vulnerabilities emerge. What if Binance falters due to technical glitches, cyberattacks, or regulatory crackdowns? The fallout could destabilise other exchanges, trigger panic selling, and erode investor confidence. The crypto market, already prone to wild swings, would face heightened turbulence.

Mitigating Measures

ESMA’s report underscores the need for vigilance. Regulatory bodies must strike a delicate balance: promoting innovation while safeguarding stability. Diversification across exchanges, robust risk management practices, and stress testing are essential. Additionally, fostering competition and encouraging new players can dilute concentration risk.

The Way Forward

Crypto enthusiasts should heed ESMA’s warning. While the allure of rapid gains remains strong, prudent risk assessment is crucial. Investors must diversify their holdings, stay informed, and choose exchanges wisely. As the crypto landscape evolves, collaboration between regulators, industry players, and investors will shape its future.

In this high-stakes game, the EU watchdog’s message is clear: Tread carefully as you navigate the digital frontier.


Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult professionals before making investment decisions

Remember to always do your own careful research or employ regulated financial advice.

Research! Research! Research!

A single speck of dust is halfway between the size of an atom and the size of the entire planet. How can this be possible?

Atoms and dust

The statement that a single speck of dust is halfway between the size of an atom and the entire planet Earth is a fascinating way to think about scale, and it’s based on a logarithmic, not linear, scale.

A fun fact

On a linear scale, the size of a dust speck is nowhere near the midpoint between an atom and Earth. However, if we consider a logarithmic scale, which compares things in terms of orders of magnitude rather than absolute size, the idea becomes more meaningful.

Midpoint equals 30g

  • The mass of a carbon atom is approximately 1.67377×10 to the power of −24 kilograms.
  • The mass of Earth is about 5.9736×10 to the power of 24 kilograms.
  • On a logarithmic scale, the midpoint of these two masses would be around 10 to the power of −1.5, which is roughly 30 grams.

While 30 grams is heavier than what we’d typically consider a speck of dust, it’s not too far off when we’re looking at the vast difference in scale between an atom and the Earth.

So, proportionally speaking, a speck of dust’s mass is closer to the midpoint on a logarithmic scale, even though it’s not exactly halfway.

It’s a way to visualize and understand the immense range of scales in our universe, from the very small to the very large. It’s not meant to be a precise measurement but rather an illustration of the concept of scale.

AI chip demand helps TSMC beat Q1 revenue and profit forecast

AI chips pushing up stock market

TSMC stands as the world’s foremost producer of sophisticated processors, boasting clientele that includes industry giants like Nvidia and Apple

Unprecedented demand for AI chips is being led by the proliferation of large language models such as ChatGPT and Chinese equivalents.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) on Thursday 17th April 2024 beat revenue and profit expectations in the Q1. Strong demand for advanced microchips, especially those used in AI tech.

TSMC’s first-quarter results

  • Net revenue: 592.64 billion New Taiwan dollars ($18.87 billion), vs. NT$582.94 billion
  • Net income: NT$225.49 billion, vs. NT$213.59 billion

TSMC announced that its net revenue has increased by 16.5% from the previous year to NT$592.64 billion, and its net income has risen by 8.9% to NT$225.49 billion. The company has forecasted its revenue for the first quarter to be in the range of $18 billion to $18.8 billion.

As the world’s largest producer of advanced processors, TSMC serves high-profile clients including Nvidia and Apple.

IMF says Russia is expected to grow faster than all advanced economies in 2024

Oil

The International Monetary Fund calculates that Russia’s economy will expand more rapidly than all advanced economies this year.

According to the latest World Economic Outlook released by the IMF, Russia’s economy is projected to expand by 3.2% in 2024.

This growth outpaces the anticipated growth rates for the U.S. at 2.7%, the U.K. at 0.5%, Germany at 0.2%, and France at 0.7%.

G7 growth percentages

  • Russia at 3.2%
  • U.S. at 2.7%
  • France at 0.7%
  • U.K. at 0.5%
  • Germany at 0.2%

The forecast may be galling for Western countries that have endeavoured to economically isolate, restrict and punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Russia has demonstrated that Western sanctions on its industries have made it more self-sufficient and that private consumption and domestic investment remain resilient.

Oil exports

Oil and commodity exports to nations such as India and China, (two of the largest countries in the world by population) – as well as alleged sanction evasion and high oil prices, have allowed Russia to maintain strong oil export incomes streams.

UK and Europe growth

Outside of Russia, the IMF has revised its forecasts for Europe and the UK, projecting a growth of 0.5% for this year. This positions the UK as the second-lowest performer within the G7 group of advanced economies, trailing behind Germany.

The G7 also includes France, Italy, Japan, Canada and the U.S.

However, UK growth is expected to improve to 1.5% in 2025, placing the UK in the top three best G7 performers, according to the IMF.

The IMF also reported said that interest rates in the UK will remain higher than other advanced nations, close to 4% until 2029.

Bank of England school report: must try harder – a brutal analysis of ‘out of date’ systems

Bank of England forecasts

The Bank of England (BoE) stands as a bastion of economic stability, guiding the United Kingdom through the ebbs and flows of financial tides. 

Modernising the Bank of England’s forecasting system has become a critical necessity. A recent independent review has cast a spotlight on the ‘serious deficiencies’ within its economic forecasting system, calling for an urgent modernisation.

Out of date forecasting methods

What have they all been doing for all these years to not have updated their systems?

The review, led by Dr. Ben Bernanke, a former chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, paints a picture of an institution grappling with outdated systems and under-investment in critical infrastructure. The Bank’s staff, the report suggests, are hindered by software that is not just out-of-date but also complicates the already intricate task of economic forecasting.

This revelation comes at a time when accurate economic forecasting is more vital than ever. The world is still reeling from the effects of the pandemic, the 2008/2009 financial crisis and the UK faces unique challenges post-Brexit. The Bank’s ability to predict economic trends accurately is paramount in crafting policies that safeguard the nation’s financial health.

Deficiencies

The deficiencies highlighted are not just a matter of outdated software; they reflect a deeper need for a paradigm shift in how economic data is handled and analysed. The report recommends a complete overhaul of the system, emphasizing the need for automation of tasks that are currently performed manually.

Governor Andrew Bailey’s reportedly responded to the review by acknowledging the gravity of the situation, stating that updating the Bank’s systems is a ‘high priority’. This commitment to modernisation is a step in the right direction, but it should be followed by swift and decisive action, surely.

A broken compass?

The Bank of England’s forecasting system is more than a tool; it is the compass by which the nation navigates its economic future. Modernising this system is not just a recommendation; it is an imperative. As the UK charts its course in a rapidly changing global economy, the reliability and sophistication of its economic forecasting are not just beneficial but essential for continued prosperity.

In conclusion, the Bank of England’s economic forecasting system is at a crossroads. The call to modernise is clear, and the path forward must be paved with innovation, investment, and a steadfast commitment to excellence in economic stewardship.

The future of the UK’s economy depends on it.

Does extreme flooding pose a threat to UK food security?

UK floods

Record-breaking rain has inundated the United Kingdom over the past few months, leaving fields submerged and livestock at risk.

The relentless downpours, likely exacerbated by climate change, are now threatening the very foundation of UK food production.

Challenges faced by farmers

UK farmers are facing the repercussions of extreme weather events. Fields that would normally be abundant with crops are currently waterlogged, making them barren. Livestock are also suffering, unable to graze in the inundated fields, leading to a shortage of feed. The circumstances are critical, prompting the National Farmers Union (NFU) to raise the alarm.

NFU’s concerns and calls for action

The NFU emphasizes that climate change-induced flooding imperils food security. Rachel Hallos, NFU vice president, warns that these extreme conditions could become the norm. Urgent action is needed to safeguard our agricultural systems.

  • Compensation and Support: The NFU urges the government to provide more substantial compensation to flooded farmers. The recently launched Farm Recovery Fund offers grants, but broader and longer-term assistance is essential.
  • Reduced Crop Output: Weeks of incessant rain have already impacted this year’s harvest. Crop quality may suffer, affecting both farmers and consumers.
  • Resilience and Adaptation: We cannot rely solely on imports. A clear government plan is necessary to prepare for the potential effect of extreme weather, adapt to its effects, and ensure continued food production.

Voices from the fields – case study example

A recent report from a mixed dairy, beef, and arable farmer in Gloucester whose land lies in the floodplain reportedly said that floods occurred every six years, but now they occur with alarming frequency. Cattle, unable to graze, face dwindling feed supplies. Livelihoods hang in the balance.

The farmer went on to say, ‘climate change affects us all. It threatens our food supply and prices. We must think about resilience and feeding the world amidst a changing climate.’

Conclusion

Extreme flooding transcends a natural disaster; it poses a threat to our very sustenance. In the face of such challenges in the UK, it is imperative that farmers, policymakers, and communities collaborate.

Prompt action is essential to safeguard our food security and foster resilience for the future.

Building and farming on low-lying land, often on floodplains, is likely a big part of the problem, along with the potential effects of the ever-changing climate and weather patterns.

Safety valve

Low lying land has always flooded – isn’t it natures safety valve? We cohabit with nature and low-lying land, as good as it is for farming (and building), will always flood – as it has for thousands of years.

But we do need to do more to protect our food production in the UK.

UK inflation eases to 3.2% but down less than expected

UK inflation data March 2024

Inflation in the U.K. eased to 3.2% from 3.4% in March, the Office for National Statistics said on Wednesday 17th April 2024.

But a higher-than-expected reading creates more concern as investors push back bets on the timing of the first Bank of England (BoE) rate cut.

Economists expected 3.1% as inflation has been falling gradually since it peaked at 11.1% in late 2022.

Food prices provided the biggest downward drag on the headline rate, the ONS said, while motor fuels pushed it higher.

The core inflation rate, excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, was reported at 4.2%, slightly above the forecasted 4.1%. Services inflation, closely monitored by U.K. monetary policymakers, decreased from 6.1% to 6%, still surpassing the expectations of economists and the Bank of England (BoE).

The March core inflation figure, remaining above 4%, is expected to fuel speculation that inflation is more persistent than recent projections indicated, potentially delaying the anticipated timing of initial interest rate reductions.

UK inflation 3.2% March 2024

UK inflation 3.2% March 2024

Latest UK pay growth and unemployment data

UK jobs

The latest figures on UK pay growth and unemployment present a complex picture of the country’s labour market.

The unemployment rate has seen a slight uptick to 4.2%, a rise from the previous 3.9%. This increase, which is more than anticipated, suggests a softening in the labour market.

Conversely, wage growth appears to be resilient in the face of rising unemployment. Although core wage growth has decelerated, it remains in the region of 6%. This could indicate that employers are maintaining competitive wages to attract and retain skilled workers, even amidst a slowing labour market.

Employment dipped according to the ONS

The ONS said employment rate dipped to 74.5% between December and February and the percentage of 16 to 64 year-olds defined as economically inactive rose from 21.8% to 22.2%, which equates to 9.4 million people.

In February 2024, the average weekly earnings were estimated at £677 for total earnings and £633 for regular earnings. This equates to an annual growth in regular earnings (excluding bonuses) of 6.0%, and annual growth in employees’ average total earnings (including bonuses) of 5.6%.

Adjusting for inflation using CPIH

However, when adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH), the real terms growth for regular pay was 1.9%, and for total pay was 1.6%. This implies that while nominal wages are increasing, the real purchasing power of these wages may not be keeping up with inflation.

Bank of England

The Bank of England will likely approach this data with caution. The combination of increasing unemployment and slowing wage growth could be indicative of a weakening economy, potentially prompting the Bank to contemplate rate cuts.

The response of the Bank of England to these trends will be pivotal in the forthcoming months.

Summary

In summary, the UK labour market is exhibiting signs of cooling with an increase in unemployment and a slowdown in wage growth. However, wages continue to grow at a relatively high rate. The real impact on workers will hinge on how these wage increases stack up against inflation.

Tesla to lay off over 10% of global workforce

Tesla charge EV point

The company intends to reduce its global workforce by over 10%, amounting to roughly 14,000 employees

As of December, Tesla had a total of 140,473 employees worldwide.

This decision is believed to be a response to the obstacles Tesla is encountering with slowing growth and operational effectiveness and cheaper competition.

In an internal memo, billionaire owner Elon Musk addressed the layoffs, acknowledging that it was a difficult decision but necessary for the company’s future. He emphasized the need to streamline operations and prepare for the next phase of growth. 

The layoffs have already begun and also include some key executives. 

Why?

Analysts offer diverse interpretations of the layoffs. Some perceive them as indicative of cost pressures stemming from Tesla’s investments in new models and artificial intelligence (AI).

The company’s delay in updating its aging vehicle lineup, coupled with high interest rates, has weakened consumer demand. Moreover, the influx of affordable electric vehicles, especially from China, such as BYD, has intensified the competition.

Efficiency drive?

While the layoffs indicate challenges, they also highlight Tesla’s dedication to adaptability and efficiency. As the electric vehicle (EV) industry progresses, Tesla strives to stay lean, innovative, and strategically positioned for ongoing growth. The company is scheduled to announce its quarterly earnings later this month, which analysts will scrutinize in the context of the recent workforce reductions.

In summary, Tesla’s layoffs are indicative of the intricate dynamics within the automotive sector, where innovation, cost control, and market forces converge.

The company’s capacity to steer through these complexities will determine its future prosperity.

Tesla share price year-to-date (April 2024)

Tesla share price year-to-date (April 2024)

China’s economy expanded by 5.3% in Q1

On a quarter-by-quarter basis, China’s GDP grew 1.6% in the first quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of around expectations of 1.4%.

Beijing’s growth target for 2024 is around 5%.

China’s growth was driven in part by external demand, as export volume grew by 14% year on year.

Industrial output for March grew 4.5% year on year, missing expectations of 6%.

Retail sales grew 3.1% year on year, lower than expectations of 4.6%.

Gold is at an all-time high and recently crossed $2400 – is it now vulnerable to a pullback?

Gold all-time high!

Gold at all-time high above $2,400

Technical analysis indicates that the risk trends towards the upside, with indicators showing overbought conditions and prices rising above moving averages.

However, it’s crucial to remember that markets are subject to change and can be affected by various factors, including geopolitical risks and economic data.

Recent figures indicate that the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) increased less than anticipated, which may influence monetary policy decisions and, as a result, the price of gold. Furthermore, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) choice to keep its monetary policy unchanged could lead to a rate reduction next summer, potentially affecting gold prices as well.

Although the present technical perspective suggests a possible continued rise, market fluctuations can occur due to unexpected events or changes in investor sentiment. Consequently, while gold may not face an immediate decline, it is advisable for investors to remain informed and take into account both technical and fundamental aspects when evaluating market trends.

Gold price one month chart

Gold price one month chart

U.S. Supercore inflation measure indicates Fed may have a problem

Markets have fretted about core inflation recently, now analysts are concerned about a highly specific price gauge within the data – ‘supercore’ inflation.

This measure tracks services inflation, excluding food, energy, and housing, which has recently surged, rising 4.8% year-over-year in March 2024 and over 8% on a three-month annualised basis.

The situation is further complicated as some of the most persistent elements of services inflation include essential household expenses such as car and housing insurance, along with property taxes. Wall Street was unsettled by a recent consumer price index report that exceeded expectations, yet the focus is on the ‘supercore’ inflation reading within the data.

Economists also analysed the core CPI, which omits the volatile prices of food and energy, to discern the true inflation trend. The ‘supercore’ gauge goes a step further by also removing shelter and rent costs from its services calculation.

Federal Reserve officials find this measure particularly useful in the current environment, viewing the spike in housing inflation as a transient issue rather than a reliable indicator of underlying price trends.

Supercore inflation accelerated to a 4.8% pace year over year in March 2024, the highest in 11 months.

Sticky inflation problem

Adding complexity to the situation is the declining consumer savings rate coupled with rising borrowing costs, which may compel the central bank to maintain a restrictive monetary policy “until something breaks,” according to Fitzpatrick.

Analysts warn that the Federal Reserve may struggle to reduce inflation through additional rate hikes, as the prevailing factors are more persistent and less responsive to stringent monetary policy.

U.S. markets unfazed by hot CPI data

U.S. Flag

Despite the recent surge in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and better than expected PPI data, markets have shrugged off any concern… for now

Fickle

On Wednesday 10th April 2024 the CPI data announcement pushed the markets down and on Thursday 11th the markets recovered after the PPI data was better than expected.

CPI Report for March 2024

  • Both headline and core CPI rose by 0.4%, surpassing forecasts.
  • Bond markets are now cautious about potential rate cuts, shifting from a floor of three cuts to a possible ceiling.
  • Groceries’ inflation has eased, but housing costs remain a pressure point.
  • Fed policymakers closely monitor Supercore services inflation.
  • Solid wage gains continue to impact prices.

Producer Price Index (PPI)

PPI increased by 0.6% in February 2024. Expectations persist for June rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

UK economy grew by 0.1% in February 2024

UK economy

One tenth of 1% is very little but we can at least hope the UK is on it’s on way out of recession

Let’s blame the weather

The economy grew by 0.1%, figures show, boosted by production and manufacturing in areas such as the car sector. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that construction was dampened by wet weather.

The official ONS statistics also revised its previous estimate for January 2024 from 0.2% growth up to 0.3%.

Hunt is happy with 0.1% growth…?

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt reportedly suggested that the new figures were a “welcome sign that the economy is turning a corner”. “We can build on this progress if we stick to our plan,” he added.

That’s good then Jeremy – well done you, nice plan!

UK growth February 2024 at 0.1%

UK growth February 2024 at 0.1%