Much Ado About Nothing – UK GDP and the ‘r’ word

UK recession is over... already!

The U.K. economy has recovered from its ‘technical’ recession, with the gross domestic product (GDP) increasing by 0.6% in the first quarter, surpassing expectations.

Official figures released on Friday revealed this growth, which exceeded the 0.4% predicted by economists surveyed by Reuters for the previous quarter.

In the latter half of 2023, the U.K. experienced a mild recession due to ongoing inflationary pressures impacting economic performance.

Technically there is no official definition of a recession – however, two straight quarters of negative growth is widely accepted as a technical recession.

The production sector in the U.K. saw an expansion of 0.8% from January to March, whereas the construction sector experienced a decline of 0.9%. The economy witnessed a growth of 0.4% in March on a monthly basis, succeeding a 0.2% increase in February.

According to the Office for National Statistics, the services sector, which is vital to the U.K. economy, grew for the first time since the first quarter of 2023. This growth of 0.7% was primarily propelled by the transport services industry, marking its most significant quarterly growth since 2020.

Much Ado About Nothing

‘Much Ado About Nothing’ is a comedy by William Shakespeare, written around 1598 – 1599. The play is included in the First Folio, published in 1623, and is set in the Italian city of Messina.

Arm Holdings share price drops

AI

UK chip designer Arm’s shares fell on Thursday 9th May 2024, subdued by revenue forecasts despite a strong sales quarter fueled by demand for AI applications.

Arm announced a 47% increase in fiscal Q4 revenue to $928 million on Wednesday.

This surge was propelled by its licensing business, which saw a 60% increase to $414 million for the quarter, attributed to several high-value licencing deals for AI chips.

Additionally, Arm’s royalty revenues rose 37% to $514 million year-over-year, thanks to the growing adoption of its new Armv9-based chips, which offer higher margins.

However, Arm’s revenue projection for 2025, estimated between $3.8 billion and $4.1 billion, did not meet investor expectations, with analysts anticipating $3.99 billion for the year.

What is Arm?

Contrary to chipmakers like Nvidia, which manufacture and market their own products, Arm creates the ‘architectures’ that form the foundation of chips.

These designs are then licenced to various chip manufacturers, including Qualcomm and Nvidia, with Arm earning royalties on each unit sold.

Originally founded in Cambridge, England, in 1990, Arm was an independent company listed in London until 2016, when it was acquired by Japanese tech investor SoftBank for $32 billion.

In September 2023, SoftBank listed Arm on the Nasdaq. Since its initial public offering, Arm’s share value has more than doubled, driven by the explosive demand for chips that power advanced generative AI applications, such as ChatGPT.

But this recent revenue forecast had a negative effect on its share price

Arm Holdings one year chart to 9th May 2024

The recent revenue forecast had a negative effect on its share price