The U.K. economy has recovered from its ‘technical’ recession, with the gross domestic product (GDP) increasing by 0.6% in the first quarter, surpassing expectations. Official figures released on Friday revealed this growth, which exceeded the 0.4% predicted by economists surveyed by Reuters for the previous quarter. In the latter halfRead More →
The decision comes as inflation, which measures price rises over a period of time, remains above the Bank’s 2% target at 3.2%. But bank says cuts are coming. Is the 2% target still a sensible benchmark? The 2% inflation target set by central banks has been a widely adopted benchmarkRead More →
Tensions between Washington and Beijing have intensified, with the U.S. ramping up trade restrictions and sanctions on China due to national security concerns. Since Ukraine’s invasion, there has been a roughly 12% drop in trade between the blocs, and foreign direct investments have decreased by 20% compared to those withinRead More →
The FTSE 100 soared past 8300, reaching a new record high amid busy trading as London markets reopened after the bank holiday. A catch-up trading session is evident, with mainland-listed stocks having a robust session on Monday 7th May 2024 and continuing to rise. The FTSE reached around 8335 inRead More →
Non-farm payrolls rose by 175,000 in the month, falling short of the consensus estimate of 240,000. The unemployment rate increased slightly to 3.9%, contrary to expectations that it would remain at 3.8%. Additionally, a broader measure of unemployment rose to 7.4%, marking the highest rate since November 2021. In lineRead More →
Forecasts indicate that the UK economy will experience sluggish growth among the largest developed nations in 2025. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has projected a 1% increase in the UK’s gross domestic product (GDP) for 2025, which lags behind the growth rates of other G7 nations, includingRead More →
The fragility of U.S. banks: A looming financial crisis or an event unlikely to unfold? Amid escalating interest rates and economic instability, an alarming report has surfaced, suggesting that a considerable number of U.S. banks are on the verge of collapse. This potential looming crisis is attributed to various elementsRead More →
The Fed have deliberated over ‘transitory’ inflation – (they got that wrong). They have teased us about when rates will be cut (still waiting). And now we are told no rate cut but: ‘the next rate move is unlikely to be up!’ Probably better to say and do nothing atRead More →
House prices declined in April 2024, with affordability pressures persisting for potential buyers, as reported by Nationwide. The UK’s largest building society reported a 0.4% decrease in house prices compared to the previous month. The average cost of a home now stands at £261,962, which is 4% lower than inRead More →
Inflation rates in the euro area remained constant at 2.4% in April 2024, and the economy experienced growth in the first quarter, as indicated by preliminary figures released on Tuesday. Headline inflation at 2.4% aligned with economists’ forecasts, while monthly inflation registered at 0.6%. Core inflation, which excludes energy, food,Read More →
Borge Brende, the president of the World Economic Forum (WEF), recently issued a stark warning about global debt levels. Speaking at the ‘Special Meeting on Global Collaboration, Growth and Energy for Development‘ in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, (see WEF website), he highlighted that global debt ratios are approaching levels not seen since the 1820s. TheRead More →
Inflation has become a persistent challenge for the Fed The battle against inflation persists, gradually impacting the U.S. economy and presenting substantial challenges for the Federal Reserve. Despite concerted efforts to control it, inflation remains stubbornly remains, leaving policymakers in a dilemma – to stimulate economic growth or to curbRead More →
The gross domestic product (GDP) from January to March 2024, grew at an annualised rate of 1.6%, significantly underperforming the projected 2.4%. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, crucial for the Federal Reserve’s inflation assessments, climbed at an annualised rate of 3.4% for the quarter, marking the largest increaseRead More →
The UK FTSE 100 stock index has reached a new record closing price on Monday 22nd April 2024 The new all-time high was likely propelled by a weakening pound and reduced tensions in the Middle East. The FTSE 100 has been the laggard for many months. The index concluded MondayRead More →
The International Monetary Fund calculates that Russia’s economy will expand more rapidly than all advanced economies this year. According to the latest World Economic Outlook released by the IMF, Russia’s economy is projected to expand by 3.2% in 2024. This growth outpaces the anticipated growth rates for the U.S. atRead More →
The Bank of England (BoE) stands as a bastion of economic stability, guiding the United Kingdom through the ebbs and flows of financial tides. Modernising the Bank of England’s forecasting system has become a critical necessity. A recent independent review has cast a spotlight on the ‘serious deficiencies’ within itsRead More →
Inflation in the U.K. eased to 3.2% from 3.4% in March, the Office for National Statistics said on Wednesday 17th April 2024. But a higher-than-expected reading creates more concern as investors push back bets on the timing of the first Bank of England (BoE) rate cut. Economists expected 3.1% asRead More →
The latest figures on UK pay growth and unemployment present a complex picture of the country’s labour market. The unemployment rate has seen a slight uptick to 4.2%, a rise from the previous 3.9%. This increase, which is more than anticipated, suggests a softening in the labour market. Conversely, wage growthRead More →
On a quarter-by-quarter basis, China’s GDP grew 1.6% in the first quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of around expectations of 1.4%. Beijing’s growth target for 2024 is around 5%. China’s growth was driven in part by external demand, as export volume grew by 14% year on year. Industrial output forRead More →
Markets have fretted about core inflation recently, now analysts are concerned about a highly specific price gauge within the data – ‘supercore’ inflation. This measure tracks services inflation, excluding food, energy, and housing, which has recently surged, rising 4.8% year-over-year in March 2024 and over 8% on a three-month annualisedRead More →
Despite the recent surge in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and better than expected PPI data, markets have shrugged off any concern… for now Fickle On Wednesday 10th April 2024 the CPI data announcement pushed the markets down and on Thursday 11th the markets recovered after the PPI data wasRead More →
One tenth of 1% is very little but we can at least hope the UK is on it’s on way out of recession Let’s blame the weather The economy grew by 0.1%, figures show, boosted by production and manufacturing in areas such as the car sector. The Office for NationalRead More →
The headline inflation rate registered at 3.5% year-on-year, surpassing the 3.4% economists had anticipated in a Dow Jones survey and marking a 0.3% increase from February 2024. The core CPI experienced a 0.4% rise on a monthly basis and a 3.8% increase from the previous year, both exceeding expectations. U.S.Read More →
The U.S. economy is on a rip, with employers adding around 303,000 jobs in March 2024 – the largest increase in almost a year. As the world’s largest economy continues to surge, questions arise about the Federal Reserve’s next move regarding interest rates. Stronger-than-expected Job Growth The unemployment rate fellRead More →
Eurozone inflation eased to 2.4% in March 2024, as indicated by preliminary figures released on Wednesday 3rd April 2024. This decrease has increased expectations that interest rate cuts may start in the summer 2024. Market analysts anticipate that the central bank will commence reductions in interest rates starting in JuneRead More →
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated on Wednesday 3rd April 2024 that policymakers will need time to assess the current inflation situation, leaving the schedule for potential interest rate reductions unclear. Referring to the stronger-than-anticipated price pressures at the year’s onset, Powell reportedly stated that he and his colleagues areRead More →