Tag: UK

Posted on

Pound hits highest level versus dollar for a year

Pound Sterling

The pound reached its highest level against the dollar in a year on Wednesday 17th July 2024, as investors wagered that UK interest rates would remain elevated for longer.

New data released on Wednesday 17th July 2024 indicated that inflation was more persistent than some analysts had anticipated, leading traders to reduce their expectations of a rate decrease in August 2024, propelling the pound above $1.30 for the first time since the previous July.

Additionally, the pound’s strength has been supported by market optimism that the newly elected Labour government will provide economic stability.

Posted on

UK inflation holds at Bank of England’s 2% target but above projections

UK inflation

U.K. inflation matched the Bank of England’s target of 2% in June 2024, as calculated by data from the Official for National Statistics on Wednesday 17th July 2024.

The main figure was slightly higher than the 1.9% forecast by analysts surveyed by Reuters, aligning with May’s 2% figure.

Following the announcement, the value of Sterling increased modestly, reaching $1.2977 at 7:21 a.m. British Summer Time.

The Bank of England (BoE) closely monitors services inflation due to its significant role in the U.K. economy and as an indicator of domestic price increases, which remained at 5.7% in June. Service inflation remains a stubborn issue and a problem still for the BoE.

The core inflation rate, which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, stood at 3.5%, consistent with the rate seen in May 2024.

Posted on

Burberry share price slides as company announces profit warning

Luxury goods

Burberry shares slide on Monday 15th July 2024 after the UK luxury fashion group announced a profit warning and a dividend halt and said its chief executive officer (CEO) was being replaced.

The maker of the iconic trench coat described a ‘disappointing’ fiscal first-quarter 2025 in a trading update.

Burberry reportedly said that if the recent trading slowdown continues, it expects to report an operating loss for the first half of this year and full-year operating profit below current consensus.

Shares in the 168-year-old British luxury giant were down 15% on Monday 15th July 2024 in early London trading.

Burberry share price falls to around 745 on Monday 15th July 2024 – one year share price chart

Burberry share price falls to around 745 on Monday 15th July 2024 – one year share price chart
Posted on

Which governments hold the most Bitcoin?

Bitcoin cartoon

U.S., UK and Germany hold more Bitcoin than you may think.

According to the Arkham website, the United States’ government holds some 212,847 BTC making it one of the biggest holders of Bitcoin, while the treasuries of the U.K. and Germany reportedly hold around 61,245 BTC and 49,858 BTC each. (These values alter daily).

In addition to Bitcoin, the U.S. government also holds around $200 million in other cryptocurrencies like Ether (ETH), as well as major stablecoins like USDC.

U.S. Bitcoin holding by current value according to Arkham

Data from Arkham (as of 12th July 2024)

Arkham, a crypto intelligence platform focused on deanonymizing entities on the blockchain network, has introduced a dashboard featuring the governments with the largest crypto holdings.

The U.K. government, reportedly ranked second, holds around $3.5 billion worth of Bitcoin at current valuations, according to Arkham’s data. The German government owns roughly $2.5 billion.

UK Bitcoin holding by current value according to Arkham

Data from Arkham (as of 12th July 2024)

Other world governments holding Bitcoin

China, Russia, Ukraine, El Salvador, Finland, Bhutan and many others.

In 2021, El Salvador became the first country to make Bitcoin legal tender and mandated all local businesses to accept payments in BTC. 

Posted on

Labour Party win 2024 UK election in landslide victory after giving the Conservative Party a drubbing!

Labour Party win 2024 election

The U.K.’s opposition Labour Party secured a significant parliamentary majority in the 2024 general election, displacing the incumbent Conservatives after 14 years in power.

Labour surpassed the threshold of 326 majority required to govern without coalition support as outgoing Prime Minister Rishi Sunak acknowledged the loss. Sir Keir Starmer, the leader of the centre-left Labour Party, is set to become the next prime minister, having declared victory in the early hours.

The Labour Party’s massive majority was achieved as Europe lurches to the right and the UK turns left – very contrasting differences.

The strength and size of the win mustn’t allow the Labour Party to railroad policy.

The Labour Party campaigned on the slogan ‘change’ – but what does that really mean? A change from what to what exactly? Time will tell – but I have my doubts. Having lived through many political changes and many Party promises that slowly drifted away to reality.

It looks very much to me that the win was a vote against rather than a vote for.

However, it was refreshing to witness democracy very much at work in the UK election.

Change!

Come on then Labour – let’s now see what you can do for the people of the UK now that you have trashed the Tories!

You have the majority!

Time for that change.

Posted on

“Meet Bill and Bet!”

UK election betting scandal

UK Election betting scandal mars politicians and the police!

Just when you think the state of UK politics couldn’t get any worse… it does!

The ‘clicky’ inner circles of both the Conservative and of the Labour Party with their mucky little antics – placing bets on the date of the UK election – KNOWING THE OUTCOME!!

Why would anyone behave in this way?

No wonder the public are utterly disenfranchised with politics. The morally bankrupt behaviour and greed shown by some in both the Conservative and Labour Party is breathtaking and bereft of any basic moral compass.

These people are broken and should not be in positions of trust representing our country.

And the police too!

UK election betting scandal
“Meet Bill and Bet!”

Billy and Betty off to place their bets!

Posted on

“SS Sunak – rats deserting the Sinking Ship!”

Sinking Ship!

SS Sunak – rats deserting a Sinking Ship!

UK Election: I don’t know if it’s just me but… where are all the Conservative Party cabinet BIG hitters?

Sunak has very little support, if any from his cabinet!

Where is Jeremy Hunt, the Chancellor of the Exchequer for example?

He’s not that visible on the election campaign trail. His absence could easily be construed as ‘distinctly unhelpful.’

Where is he?

Posted on

“Here… I think you may need this!”

Take cover!

UK election engulfed in yet another politically charged fallout from scandalous greed driven morally bankrupt politicians, and police. All connected to the inner workings of a failed government bereft of any sense of moral duty. The opposition Party are implicated too!

Why?

Is this really the best we can do?

Posted on

Nvidia briefly surpassed the individual stock market values of Germany, France and the UK

Market Cap up

The little-known company, Nvidia, now stands alongside Apple and Microsoft in market cap valuation thanks to AI.

In just a little over a year it has all but tripled its market valuation and become a go to investment on Wall Street and around the world.

Nvidia’s market capitalization has recently individually surpassed the total value of the German, French, and U.K. stock markets.

With a market cap exceeding $3.4 trillion, Nvidia now stands above these significant European stock markets in valuation.

Posted on

UK hits 2% Bank of England’s inflation target for the first time since 2021

THERE ARE TWO I'S IN INFLATION!

Inflation has reached the Bank of England’s target for the first time in nearly three years, having soared to 11.1% in October 2022, the highest in over four decades – driven by a spike in energy and food prices following the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

In the year leading up to May 2024, prices increased by 2%, a decrease from the 2.3% rise in the previous month, according to official statistics.

The economy remains a central issue in the lead-up to the general election on July 4th, with all major parties discussing strategies to manage the cost of living.

This discussion precedes the Bank of England’s upcoming decision on UK interest rates this due on 20th June 2024.

The bank is anticipated to maintain the rate at 5.25% – a peak not seen in 16 years – for the seventh consecutive meeting, with the market not expecting a reduction until August 2024.

The decline in May’s inflation rate was attributed to slower price increases for food and soft drinks, recreation and culture, and furniture and household items.

Fuel pump prices remain high.

The inflation target has been achieved – it must be time for a reduction in interest rates.

Posted on

“Vote Now! Pay Later. Our Deal. Labour”

UK Election – The Labour Party slogan is ‘CHANGE’ – but ‘CHANGE‘ to what?

I do not support any party. I have no idea what the Labour party stands for anymore. And as for the Conservatives – not a clue either – too many deceits and for far too long!

We have choice – but no choice!

Posted on

UK GDP flatlines – not so helpful for Sunak and his election campaign

UK GDP slows

In April 2024, the U.K.’s economic growth came to a standstill, figures released on Wednesday 12th June 2024 indicated, putting a pause on the subdued recovery from the previous year’s recession just weeks before the UK election.

Analysts had anticipated growth a levelling off following a 0.4% expansion in March 2024.

Over a longer period however, the outlook was slightly more positive, with a 0.7% increase in gross domestic product (GDP) in the three months leading up to April 2024.

The construction sector saw a 1.4% decrease, marking its third consecutive decline, and production output fell by 0.9%. However, the U.K.’s dominant service sector witnessed growth, with a 0.2% increase.

The UK had managed modest growth each month in the first quarter of the 2024 as the country emerged from a mild short technical recession.

Posted on

Raspberry Pi tech IPO to raise £166 million in London listing debut

Raspberry Pi

The British computing startup Raspberry Pi is aiming to raise £166 million ($211.2 million) from its initial public offering in London on Tuesday 11th June 2024.

The company, known for its compact single-board computers, has set its share price at 280 pence each. Conditional dealing of Raspberry Pi shares will commence on Tuesday, allowing specific investors, such as institutional buyers, to begin trading.

Based on the pricing of its shares, the company is valued at around £542 million.

This is a rare win for London’s stock exchange which has struggled to attract technology listings in recent time, losing out to the U.S.

In early morning trading Tuesday 11th June 2024 – Raspberry Pi shares climbed over 30%

Posted on

IMF recommends UK interest rates should be cut to 3.5% by end of 2025

UK Charts

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) advises that the Bank of England should contemplate reducing its interest rates to 3.5% by the end of 2025.

This suggestion is made as the UK’s economy steadily recovers from the recession caused by the pandemic, while policymakers are dealing with inflationary challenges.

The ‘thinking’ behind the recommendation

Economic Recovery and Inflation Outlook

The IMF’s recommendation is grounded in its assessment of the UK’s economic trajectory.

Growth Forecast

The International Monetary Fund has upgraded its growth forecast for the UK in 2024, signaling a positive outlook. It anticipates growth of 0.7% this year and 1.5% in 2025.

Inflation

The IMF anticipates that UK inflation will decline to near the Bank of England’s target of 2% and stabilise at this rate in early 2025, indicating that inflationary pressures are within manageable limits.

Soft Landing

The UK economy is said to be approaching a ‘soft landing‘ following the mild recession of the previous year. Policymakers are focused on finding a balance between fostering growth and managing inflation.

Monetary Policy Considerations

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has been closely monitoring economic indicators and inflation trends. Here’s why the IMF’s recommendation matters:

Interest Rate Peaks

The Monetary Policy Committee has indicated that interest rates might have reached their peak. The current restrictive monetary policy is having an impact on the actual economy and the dynamics of inflation.

Market Expectations

Analysts anticipate the first interest rate cut by September 2024 at the latest. Market expectations align with this projection, with the base interest rate likely to be lowered to 4% by the end of 2025.

Balancing Act

Policymakers face the delicate task of supporting economic recovery while preventing runaway inflation. The IMF’s suggestion aims to strike this balance.

Implications for Borrowers and Savers

Mortgage Holders

Variable Rate Mortgages

If you have a variable rate mortgage, a rate cut could reduce your monthly payments. However, keep an eye on your lender’s response to any rate changes.

Fixed Rate Mortgages

Fixed-rate borrowers won’t immediately benefit from rate cuts, but they should still monitor the situation. If rates continue to fall, refinancing might become attractive.

Savers

Savings Accounts

Lower interest rates typically lead to diminished returns on savings accounts. It may be wise to diversify your investments to seek potentially higher yields in other areas.

Fixed-Term Deposit

Current fixed-term deposits will remain unaffected; however, new deposits might generate lower yields. It is advisable to carefully assess your alternatives.

Conclusion

The IMF’s recommendation highlights the intricate balance between fostering economic recovery and managing inflation. As the Bank of England considers its next steps, it is crucial for borrowers and savers to remain informed and adjust their financial strategies as needed.

For homeowners, investors, and savers alike, grasping the potential consequences of rate cuts is key to making well-informed choices in an ever-changing economic environment.

Disclaimer: The information provided here is based on current projections and should not be considered financial advice. It is not given as financial advice – it is for discussion and analysis only!

Consult a professional advisor for personalised recommendations.

Remember – always do your careful research first!

RESEARCH! RESEARCH! RESEARCH!

Update

The Bank of England has given its strongest hint yet that interest rates could be cut this summer. This comment was observed in a recent speech given by the deputy governor of the Bank of England.

Posted on

UK retail sales flop 2.3% in April, missing estimates

UK retail sales

Wet weather was to blame for the U.K. retail sales volumes drop of 2.3% in April 2024.

Shoppers were deterred from the high street, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said Friday 24th May 2024.

Economists expected a smaller retail sales fall of 0.4%.

Sales volumes declined across multiple sectors, with clothing retailers, sports equipment, games and toys stores, and furniture outlets experiencing a downturn as adverse weather conditions led to a decrease in customer visits, according to the ONS.

March’s figure was revised from flat to a 0.2% decline.

Sales increased by 0.7% over the three months leading up to April, compared to the preceding three months, despite a sluggish December and holiday season. However, there was a 0.8% decline when compared with the same period last year.

Will the Bank of England (BoE) drop interest rates in June now that inflation is down to 2.3% – close to the target of 2%?

Posted on

UK Prime Minister announces snap general election for 4th July 2024

UK election

On 22nd May 2024, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced a snap general election for 4th July 2024 This decision caught many by surprise, as the election was called more than around six months earlier than legally required.

Election Date: 4th July 2024 – let the fireworks begin

The Conservative Party, led by Rishi Sunak, is facing significant challenges in opinion polls, trailing behind the opposition Labour Party.

The economy, immigration, health services, and cost of living have been identified as key issues for voters.

Labour, led by Sir Keir Starmer, is considered the clear frontrunner, with a substantial lead in recent polls.

Since 2010, the Conservatives have seen five prime ministers: David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, and now Rishi Sunak.

Sir Keir described the past 14 years as “Tory chaos” and emphasised that it’s time for change.

So, the UK is gearing up for an early election, and the outcome will be closely watched both domestically and internationally

Posted on

Big tech companies pledge AI safety commitments

AI Kill Switch!

Leading technology companies, such as Microsoft, Amazon, and OpenAI, have united under a significant international accord for artificial intelligence (AI) safety measures, established at the Seoul AI Safety Summit on Tuesday 21st May 2024.

Following the agreement, firms from various nations, including the UK, China, Canada, the U.S., France, South Korea, and the United Arab Emirates, have pledged to voluntarily commit to the secure development of their cutting-edge AI models.

Framework

AI model developers who have not already done so agreed to issue safety frameworks that detail how they will address the challenges posed by their advanced models, including the prevention of technology misuse by malicious entities.

These frameworks will feature ‘red lines’ that tech companies will establish to delineate the types of risks associated with advanced AI systems that are deemed ‘unacceptable.’ These risks encompass, but are not limited to, automated cyberattacks and the potential for bioweapons.

Kill switch

In the event of such dire scenarios, companies have declared their intention to introduce a ‘kill switch’ that would halt the development of their AI models should they be unable to ensure the mitigation of these risks.

“It is unprecedented for so many prominent AI firms from diverse regions of the world to concur on identical commitments regarding AI safety,” Rishi Sunak, the UK Prime Minister reportedly said on Tuesday 21st May 2024.

He further noted that these commitments would guarantee that the world’s foremost AI companies will maintain transparency and accountability concerning their safe AI development strategies.

This agreement builds upon a prior set of pledges made in November 2023 by entities engaged in the creation of generative AI software.

The involved companies have consented to seek feedback on these standards from ‘trusted actors,’ which include their respective national governments when suitable, prior to their publication in anticipation of the forthcoming AI summit – the AI Action Summit scheduled to take place in France in early 2025.