Despite the recent surge in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and better than expected PPI data, markets have shrugged off any concern… for now
Fickle
On Wednesday 10th April 2024 the CPI data announcement pushed the markets down and on Thursday 11th the markets recovered after the PPI data was better than expected.
CPI Report for March 2024
Both headline and core CPI rose by 0.4%, surpassing forecasts.
Bond markets are now cautious about potential rate cuts, shifting from a floor of three cuts to a possible ceiling.
Groceries’ inflation has eased, but housing costs remain a pressure point.
The U.S. economy is on a rip, with employers adding around 303,000 jobs in March 2024 – the largest increase in almost a year.
As the world’s largest economy continues to surge, questions arise about the Federal Reserve’s next move regarding interest rates.
Stronger-than-expected Job Growth
The unemployment rate fell to 3.8%, indicating strong job growth in several sectors such as health care, construction, and government. While economists had predicted job gains of approximately 200,000, the actual numbers have easily exceeded those expectations.
The labour market’s surprising resilience has caught analysts off guard, leading to speculation about the timing of interest rate cuts.
Fed’s Dilemma
The Federal Reserve has held interest rates in a range of 5.25%-5.5%, the highest level in over two decades. Initially, the Fed raised rates sharply in 2022 to curb inflationary pressures. However, the subsequent cooling of price inflation (down to 3.2% in February) without a significant spike in unemployment has complicated matters. The central bank now faces a delicate balancing act.
Delayed Rate Cuts?
The significant increase of 303,000 in non-farm payrolls for March 2024 reinforces the Federal Reserve’s stance that the robustness of the economy permits a gradual approach to interest rate reductions.
The Fed had been expected to initiate rate cuts this year to mitigate the impact of high borrowing costs. However, the stronger-than-anticipated economic performance suggests that rate cuts may not occur until the second half of this year.
Labour Market Dynamics
U.S. government spending in areas like high-tech manufacturing and infrastructure has bolstered the labor market. Additionally, an influx of more than three million immigrants last year has expanded the workforce, potentially keeping wage pressures in check. In March, average hourly pay rose by 4.1% year-on-year, consistent with expectations and near a three-year low.
America’s Comeback
President Joe Biden hailed the latest job figures as a “milestone in America’s comeback.” However, some market analysts argue that the strong jobs growth could complicate efforts to return inflation to the Fed’s 2% target. Some analysts even speculate that rate cuts may not materialize until 2025.
Global Implications
Higher U.S. interest rates have ripple effects worldwide, enticing investors to shift capital toward America. While the Fed’s in-tray still has some warnings, the delay in rate cuts reflects the economy’s underlying strength.
The U.S. jobs boom presents a conundrum for policymakers. Balancing economic vitality with inflation control remains a delicate task, and the Fed’s decisions will reverberate far beyond its borders.
China has reportedly prohibited the use of U.S. processors from both AMD and Intel in government computers and servers. The directive is designed to encourage the use of domestic alternatives.
Chinese government agencies are now required to choose ‘safe and reliable’ domestic alternatives for these chips. The sanctioned list features processors from Huawei and the state supported firm Phytium, both of which face bans in the U.S.
In addition to processors, China is now also restricting Microsoft Windows on government devices, opting instead for domestically produced operating systems.
These guidelines are part of a broader tech trade battles between China and the U.S. While the impact on Intel and AMD remains to be seen, it’s clear that China is taking aggressive steps to reduce reliance on U.S. built technology.
The global tech landscape continues to evolve, and these decisions have far-reaching implications for both countries and the industry as a whole.
U.S. and China trade tensions are unlikely to recede anytime soon.
The U.S. Consumer Price Index, a comprehensive gauge of the cost of goods and services, rose by 0.4% for the month and increased by 3.2% compared to the previous year.
The annual rate was marginally higher than expected. The monthly rate was slightly above the forecast of 0.3%. This may likely direct the Federal Reserve to hold off on an interest rate reduction, at least until the summer of 2024. What will Wall Street make of it?
The core Consumer Price Index increased by 0.4% monthly and recorded an annual rise of 3.8%. Both figures exceeded forecasts by one-tenth of a percentage point.
An increase of 2.3% in energy costs contributed to the rise in the overall inflation figure. Food prices remained mostly unchanged for the month, while housing expenses saw a further increase of 0.4%.
U.S. consumer price index data for February 2024– Month on month
U.S. consumer price index data for February 2024 – Year on year
In his Capitol Hill testimony on 6th March 2024, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that was not yet time to begin cutting interest rates.
To fight inflation, which reached a rate of 9% in the summer of 2022, the central bank has significantly increased interest rates in recent times. However, prices are still stubborn, especially for things like housing and groceries.
Due to the robust economic performance in early 2024, the expected reduction in interest rates has been postponed. Instead of taking place this month, the rate cuts are now more probable in May or June 2024.
Powell reportedly said: ‘The Committee does not expect that it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.’
He reiterated the pledge to lower inflation to the 2% target and keep long-term inflation expectations stable.
UPDATE
On Thursday 7th March 2024 Powell also said: the Fed is ‘not far’ from the point of cutting interest rates
The U.S. national debt has been growing more quickly in recent months, increasing about $1 trillion nearly every 100 days.
U.S. debt permanently crossed over $34 trillion on 4th January 2024 according to data from the U.S. Department of the Treasury.
It reached $33 trillion on 15th September 2023, and $32 trillion on 15th June 2023. Before that, the $1 trillion move higher from $31 trillion took about eight months.
The U.S. national debt is the total amount of money that the federal government owes to its creditors. That can include, individuals, other countries and corporation. It is composed of two main components: federal debt held by the public and federal governmental debt.
The national debt has grown over time due to various factors, such as recessions, defense spending, and tax cuts. The debt-to-GDP ratio gives insight into whether the US has the ability to cover all of its debt. It also shows how it affects economic growth.
U.S. national debt pile is growing
U.S. national debt is piling up
The national debt increased by 13.3% under President Biden. Up from $27.77 trillion as of 1st March 2020 to $31.46 trillion as of 1st March 2023. The debt also grew by $1.5 trillion, or 5.6%, between the end of 2020 and the end of 2021.
The gross domestic product (GDP) measures the annual economic output of the entire country. The national debt exceeds this amount, which is very high.
As of the end of February 2024, the U.S. debt is almost $34.4 billion. This is the money that the federal government has to borrow to pay for its operating expenses.
The World Bank found that if the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeded 77% for an extended period, it slowed economic growth.
U.S. inflation climbed in line with expectations in January 2024, according to the preferred measure the Federal Reserve uses to make decisions on cutting interest rates.
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding food and energy costs, increased 0.4% for the month and 2.8% from a year ago, as expected according to analyst’s predictions.
Headline PCE, including the volatile food and energy categories, increased 0.3% monthly and 2.4% on a 12-month basis according to the numbers released Thursday 29th February 2024 by the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis.
The data was released amid an unexpected jump in personal income, which rose 1%, well above the forecast for 0.3%. Spending decreased 0.1% vs. the estimate for a 0.2% gain.
A U.S. company has gone to the moon – and creates a little piece of history
Intuitive Machines’ Nova-C cargo lander, named ‘Odysseus’ after the mythological Greek hero, is the first U.S. spacecraft to soft land on the lunar surface since 1972.
Japan, India and China have all had recent successful moon mission ahead of the U.S.
Intuitive Machines is the first company to pull off a moon landing – government agencies have carried out all previously successful missions.
The company’s stock surged in extended trading Thursday, after falling 11% in regular trading.
Lander visual
Hunt for water
The targeted landing site was a cratered terrain next to a 5km-high mountain complex known as Malapert. It’s the southernmost point on the Moon ever visited by a spacecraft.
It’s on the shortlist of locations where Nasa is considering sending astronauts later this decade as part of its Artemis programme.
It is reported that there are some deep craters in this region that never see any sunlight – they’re permanently in shadow – and scientists believe frozen water could be inside them.
Art illustration on Intuitive Machines luna lander
Art illustration on Intuitive Machines luna lander
MOD missile test flops as £17 million weapon plops into sea
The Trident missile test is a routine exercise of the UK’s nuclear deterrent, which involves firing an unarmed missile from a submarine into the Atlantic Ocean
However, the latest test failed when the missile’s booster rockets didn’t function correctly and plopped into the sea near the launch site.
This is the second time in a row that a Trident missile test has failed, raising concerns over the reliability and safety of the UK’s nuclear weapons system. The defence secretary and the head of the navy were on board the submarine HMS Vanguard when the test went wrong.
Deterrent remains a safe option…?
The Ministry of Defence said the nuclear deterrent remains ‘safe, secure and effective’ and that the issue was specific to the test and would not affect a real launch. So that’s reassuring to hear then.
However, some critics have called for an inquiry into the incident and questioned the need for spending billions of pounds on renewing the Trident programme.
This is highly embarrassing for both the UK and the U.S. and for the manufacturer of the Trident missile.
That’s the fear spreading through Wall Street as another inflation reading on Friday 16th February 2024 came in hotter-than-expected.
The producer price index rose 0.3% in January 2024. The largest increase since August 2024 and higher than the 0.1% forecast. Excluding food and energy, core PPI jumped 0.5%, again well above consensus.
Stubborn
It is yet another sign of stubborn price pressures across the broader U.S. economy. And it came just days after an unexpectedly hot CPI reading, which gave markets a nasty jolt.
Both data have stoked investor worries on whether inflation is firmly under control. The latest developments also reinforce the Fed’s caution that it will need to see more evidence of disinflation before committing to lower rates.
Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz chief economic advisor, posted on X that like the CPI data, the PPI report was a further indication that the last mile of the inflation battle is more complex than many had assumed (and still assume).
Some economists even argue the jump in Friday’s data will likely push January’s personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
The PPI data means we can finalise our core PCE forecast for January, at 0.32%. That would be the biggest increase since September. But the three months since then all saw much smaller gains.
But investors will have to wait until later this month for PCE data when it’s released on 29th February 2024.
Most of the world’s largest tech companies, including Microsoft, Amazon and Google have agreed to tackle what they are calling deceptive artificial intelligence (AI) in elections
The tech accord
The twenty companies have signed an accord committing them to fighting voter-deceiving content. They say they will deploy technology to detect and counter the material.
The Tech Accord to Combat Deceptive Use of AI in 2024 Elections was announced at the Munich Security Conference on Friday 16th February 2024.
The issue has come into sharp focus because it is estimated up to four billion people will be voting this year in countries such as the U.S., UK and India.
Technology to mitigate risk
Among the accord’s pledges are commitments to develop technology to mitigate risks related to deceptive election content generated by AI, and to provide transparency to the public about the action firms have taken.
Other steps include sharing best practice with one another and educating the public about how to spot when they might be seeing manipulated content.
Signatories include social media platforms X, Snap, Adobe and Meta, the owner of Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp.
Proactive
However, the accord has some shortcomings, according to computer scientist Dr Deepak Padmanabhan, from Queen’s University Belfast, who has co-authored a report on elections and AI.
But he reportedly said they needed to take more proactive action instead of waiting for content to be posted before then seeking to take it down.
That could mean that realistic AI content, that may be more harmful, may stay on a platform for longer compared to obvious fakes which are easier to detect and remove, he suggested.
Target
The accord’s signatories say they will target content which deceptively fakes or alters the appearance, voice, or actions of key figures in elections.
It will also seek to deal with audio, images or videos which provide false information to voters about when, where, and how they can vote.
We have a responsibility to help ensure these tools don’t become weaponised in elections, Brad Smith, the president of Microsoft is reported to have said.
These measures, in my opinion, are a sticking plaster and will not stop the spread of dishonest and fake news!
Stocks dropped on Tuesday 13th February 2024 after hotter-than-expected inflation data for January caused Treasury yields to spike
The new inflation figure raised doubts that the Federal Reserve would be able to cut rates several times this year, a key part of the equity market bull run case.
The consumer price index rose 0.3% in January 2024 from December 2023. CPI was up 3.1% year-to-year. Economists expected CPI to have increased by 0.2% month over month in January and 2.9% from a year earlier.
U.S. inflation ticks back up in January 2024 figures
Job creation in the U.S. surged in January 2024, as the economy continued to defy predictions of a slowdown
The U.S. economy added 353,000 jobs and average hourly pay jumped, while the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7%, the Labour Department said.
The report extended more job gains that has surprised economists, who have expected a jump in interest rates since 2022 to slow the economy. It hasn’t. No recession or slowdown in the economy so far.
Early rate cut less likely according to these figures
Average hourly earnings increased 0.6%. Year-on-year basis, wages jumped 4.5%, above the 4.1% forecast.
Non-farm payrolls expanded by 353,000 for the month, well above the 185,000 estimate. The unemployment rate held at 3.7%.
Job growth was widespread in January 2024. Professional and business services 74,000. Other sectors included health care 70,000 and retail trade 45,000.
Analysts now say the job market gain and strength make an early interest rate cut less likely.
The U.S. employment data delivered quite a shock, easily beating expectations, with earnings much higher than expected. Stock markets gained and are at elevated levels for the Dow, Nasdaq and the S&P 500. Record highs have been set – are the highs?
Market analysts said these numbers show the U.S. economy is strong and will change the mindsets of those expecting an early interest rate cut.
Expectations of a recession are off the table too, for now.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in a U.S. TV interview on Sunday 4th January 2024 that the central bank will proceed carefully with interest rate cuts this year and likely will move at a considerably slower pace than the market expects.
Election year rate cuts?
In the interview and after last week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting (FOMC), Powell expressed confidence in the economy. However, he promised he wouldn’t be swayed by this year’s presidential election and said the pain he feared from rate hikes never really materialised.
“With the economy strong like that, we feel like we can approach the question of when to begin to reduce interest rates carefully,” he reportedly said.
“We want to see more evidence that inflation is moving sustainably down to 2%,” Powell added. “Our confidence is rising. We just want some more confidence before we take that very important step of beginning to cut interest rates.”
Powell indicated that it was unlikely the FOMC will make that first move in March 2024, which markets have been anticipating.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held interest rates steady and indicated a willingness stop raising interest rates.
But a cut anytime soon is unlikely until inflation is brought fully under control and nearer to the Fed’s 2% inflation target.
The Federal Reserve sent a signal that it is finished with raising interest rates but made it clear that it is not ready to start cutting, just yet. It also said there are no plans yet to cut rates with inflation still running above the central bank’s target.
Federal Reserve interest targets and increases since 2022 to January 2024
The U.S. economy grew at a much faster pace than expected in the final three months of 2023.
The U.S. easily avoided a recession that many had forecast as inevitable, the U.S. Commerce Department reported Thursday 25th January 2024.
Gross domestic product (GDP), a measure of all the goods and services produced, increased at a 3.3% annualised rate in the final quarter of 2023, according to data from the Commerce Department.
Core prices for personal consumption expenditures (PCE), a preferred measure by the Federal Reserve as a longer-term inflation calculation, rose 2% for the period, while the rate was 1.7%.
On an annual basis, the PCE price index rose 2.7%, down from 5.9% a year ago, while the core figure excluding food and energy posted a 3.2% increase annually, compared with 5.1%.
Good news
Inflation falling, GDP rising, stabilizing interest rates and no recession thus far the U.S. economy is looking rock-solid despite all the negativity.
China, which consumes over half of the global coal demand and produces over 4 billion tonnes of coal per year.
India, which consumes about 14% of the global coal demand and produces over 900 million tonnes of coal per year.
The United States, which consumes about 9% of the global coal demand and produces over 600 million tonnes of coal per year.
Japan, which consumes about 3% of the global coal demand but imports most of its coal.
These countries accounted for about 82% of the global coal production in 2021 according to 2021 data set. China alone produced more than half of the world’s coal, followed by India with nearly 10%.
Global coal use in 2023 hits few high
Global coal use in 2023 has hit a record high, surpassing 8.5 billion tons for the first time, on the back of strong demand in countries like India and China, said IEA. These countries are the world’s largest consumers of the dirtiest fossil fuel, and continued modernization puts their energy consumption on a rapid growth trajectory.
China
China and India’s growing economies will continue to fuel demand for coal even as they set ambitious renewable energy targets, according to experts.
While China is the world’s largest energy consumer, India is ranked third globally, and both countries are the top consumers of coal as they strive to fuel economic growth.
Global coal usage in 2023hit a record high, surpassing 8.5 billion tons for the first time, on the back of strong demand in emerging and developing countries such as India and China, IEA noted in a recent report.
China’s electricity sector has been in the throes of a clean revolution over the past few years, with an almost five-fold growth in wind and solar generation since 2015. As a result, the share of coal generation has fallen by 17 percentage points, from 78% in 2000 to 61% in 2022.
China has suffered from drought in recent years, which reduced hydroelectric power generation in its southern provinces. To maintain the necessary power output, the country had to turn to coal.
United States
By contrast, U.S., which is the world’s second largest consumer of coal, has seen a decrease in its usage of the fuel. According to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, the amount of coal that the superpower consumes each day recorded a 62% drop from 2.8 million to 1.1 million tons a day.
75% of India’s power is derived via coal-fired plants. Coal accounts for 61% of China’s power generation, even though the country is recognized as the indisputable leader in renewable energy expansion. It has been adding new projects to the grid almost as fast as the rest of the world combined in 2022 and has ambitions of becoming carbon neutral by 2060.
Annual average capacity additions by country and region, 2016-2023
India’s coal production rose to 893 million tons during the financial year ending March 2023, jumping nearly 15% from a year earlier. China’s raw coal production in 2023 went up by 2.9% compared with the same period in 2022.
There are no signs of a slowdown, with the IEA saying coal consumption in India and Southeast Asia is projected to grow significantly.
Coal won’t go!
But the lack of reliability of renewables means coal has still very much been a critical fallback option for the two countries.
Top five coal producing countries in the world
China: 4,126.0 million tonnes
India: 762.0 million tonnes
Indonesia: 614.0 million tonnes
United States: 523.8 million tonnes
Australia: 467.1 million tonnes
Five of the Greenest energy producers in the world
Sweden
Norway
Denmark
Finland
Switzerland
The greenest were based on these five criteria: carbon emissions, energy transition, green society, clean innovation, and climate policy.
Top countries by renewable energy production
China: 2,271.9 TWh (28.2% of total electricity)
United States: 804.8 TWh (20.5% of total electricity)
Brazil: 491.9 TWh (83.3% of total electricity)
Canada: 433.6 TWh (66.9% of total electricity)
India: 303.5 TWh (24.5% of total electricity)
Note: three of the world’s worst offenders of fossil fuel use are also in the top five for energy production by renewables – China, U.S. and India.
Bitcoin rose in volatile trading on Thursday 11th January 2024 after the Securities and Exchange Commission gave the green light for the first-ever spot Bitcoin ETFs to trade in the U.S.
Approval
The Bitcoin ETF approval is a massive achievement for the crypto industry as a whole, which first attempted to launch a Bitcoin ETF some 10 years ago.
Grayscale’s big legal win against the SEC in August 2023 over the regulator’s refusal to let it convert its popular Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into an ETF breathed fresh optimism into the idea.
Volatile
Following the SEC’s decision, Bitcoin’s value fell then gained some traction, as expected by traders. However, the volume of inflows into the new funds remains to be seen, Bitcoin ETFs are still widely expected to increase demand for the cryptocurrency and drive Bitcoin higher.
It would be unwise to make too much of these Bitcoin price moves in the short-term, but the approval is likely going to lead to some longer-term price increases. Now that the bitcoin ETF speculation has come to fruition it looks like traders may rotate to alternative cryptocurrencies such as Ether to prepare for future market developments.
Altcoin ETFs
The SEC is due to give decisions on spot ETH ETF applications beginning in May 2024. BlackRock, Invesco and Ark Invest are among the firms in line for approval, as well as Grayscale.
The opportunity to be in at the beginning will not want to be missed by these companies.
Bitcoin 7-day chart 6th January – 12th January 2024
Bitcoin 7-day chart from 6th January – 12th January 2024
Cathie Wood says $1.5 million Bitcoin bull case is now more likely
Ark’s Invests Cathie Wood said the approval of Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETF) in the U.S. convinced her even more that the world’s largest cryptocurrency ‘Bitcoin’ could hit her crazy bullish target of $1.5 million.
For her bull case, the ARK Invest boss sees Bitcoin hitting $1.5 million by 2030. Her base case is in the $600,000 range, she reportedly said.
‘We think the probability of the bull case has increased with this SEC approval. This is a green light.’ ‘It is the first global decentralized digital rules based … monetary system in history.
It is a very big idea.
Win! Win! then…?
Bitcoin 7-day chart from 6th January – 12th January 2024
Bitcoin 7-day chart from 6th January – 12th January 2024
Stocks moved lower Thursday 11th January 2024, reflecting the higher-than-expected December 2023 inflation data.
The S&P 500 in early trade edged lower by around 0.7%, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped nearly 0.8%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 0.6%. The S&P 500 briefly touched 4800 after climbing above its record high of 4,796.
Higher than expected
December’s consumer price index figure came out slightly higher-than-expected, reflecting a 0.3% increase in consumer prices for the month, pushing the annual rate to 3.4%.
Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, came out in line with expectations, however, pointing to persistent, but easing inflation pressures. The new inflation data figures suggests that future interest rate cuts may be slower to come.
This move up in CPI is an absolute reminder of the unpredictable nature of economic recovery.
Bitcoin jumped briefly on Tuesday 9th January 2024 after a post on the U.S. markets SEC regulator’s ‘X’ account post said it had approved the Exchange-Traded Funds (ETF’s) in the cryptocurrency.
This was a big news event for the cryptocurrency community and for the wider investment world. Large and small investors have been eagerly awaiting this news for months. When it finally arrived, it turned out to be fake.
U.S. regulators are expected to make an announcement on the new ETF’s this week.
The social media platform ‘X’ refuted the accusation that its systems had been the reason for the ‘compromise’.
Fake post
The fake news post appeared on the SEC’s official X account shortly after 16:00 Washington time (21:00 GMT). It said the regulator ‘grants approval for #Bitcoin ETFs for listing on all registered national securities exchanges.’ The post was immediately on the general social media radar and business news outlets.
SEC’s chair Gary Gensler quickly posted a message correcting the erroneous announcement on his personal ‘X’ account: “The @SECGov twitter account was compromised, and an unauthorized tweet was posted. The SEC has not approved the listing and trading of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products.”
‘The SEC has determined that there was unauthorized access to and activity on the @SECGov x.com account by an unknown party for a brief period of time shortly after 4 pm ET. and that the unauthorized access has been terminated,’ it was reported.
Bitcoin jumped
Bitcoin jumped to touch $48,000 (£37,800) immediately after the erroneous post before falling back to around $45,500
Bitcoin jumped to ouch $48,000 (£37,800) immediately after the erroneous post before falling back to around $45,000
Investors are eagerly anticipating an SEC announcement on the potential approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which is expected this week.
It would mark a key milestone for the cryptocurrency market in gaining acceptance to mainstream financial markets.
The U.S. labour market accumulated strong gains as the pace of hiring was greater than expected, dampening the chance of an early rate cut.
December’s jobs report showed that 216,000 jobs were added for the month while the unemployment rate remained steady at 3.7%. Estimates were in the region of 170,000 as analysts were looking for their ‘goldilocks figure.
Job boost from U.S. government
The hiring boost came from a gain of 52,000 in government jobs and another 38,000 in health care-related occupations.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% on the month and were up 4.1% from the same period 2023, both higher than the respective estimates for 0.3% and 3.9%.
U.S. unemployment chart Jan 2021 – December 2023
S&P500 and Nasdaq
The S&P500 and Nasdaq recovered some early 2024 losses as the fresh data encouraged the debate and chance of a rate cut again. Later however, the strong U.S. jobs growth dampened the likelihood of rate a cut anytime soon. Yields were on the rise again.
Strong streak
Government hiring drove the gains, which extended one of the strongest streaks of job creation on record. The job growth has confounded forecasters expecting job losses as higher borrowing costs slowed the economy.
The Nasdaq and Dow hit new all-time highs in recent days and the S&P 500 is hot on their heels.
After nine straight days of gains, Wall Street suddenly reversed an hour and a half before the closing bell on Wednesday 20th December 2023.
The sell-off expanded into Asia overnight, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 leading losses, before stocks across Europe also slid into the red on the Thursday morning, 21st December 2023.
Some indicated Wednesday’s sell-off was as simple as investors taking profits after a nine-day mini bull run, in the absence of any obvious catalyst and with U.S. stocks widely seen as overbought.
Other market analysts pointed to a high volume of zero-day options trading as the death knell for the winning streak.
Time left for a Santa rally?
Markets have been on a tear in recent eeks and months, maybe it’s time for a breather. But some suggest U.S. equities are overbought in general – so, is this something more discerning?
Prices across a wide spectrum of goods and services moved slightly higher in November 2023 but were mostly in line with expectations, thus further easing pressure on the Federal Reserve.
The consumer price index, a closely watched inflation gauge, increased 0.1% in November, and was up 3.1% from a year ago, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday 12th December 2023.
While the monthly rate indicated a pickup from the flat CPI reading in October 2023, the annual rate showed another decline after hitting 3.2% a month earlier.
