NVIDIA reportedly introduced about twenty or so new AI-driven tools tailored for healthcare at its 2024 GTC AI conference, securing partnerships with Johnson & Johnson and GE Healthcare for surgical and medical imaging applications.
For the AI chip pioneer, venturing into healthcare represents a decade-long development effort with substantial revenue possibilities.
The adoption of AI in drug discovery and research, a process that traditionally takes up to 12 years and costs billions, is accelerating rapidly.
The opportunities will be far reaching.
Nvidia one year chart
Dramatic price movement for Nvidia over a one-year period
Nvidia have announced a new generation of artificial intelligence chips and software for running AI models. It’s called: The Blackwell B200 GPU
Blackwell B200 GPU
The Blackwell B200 is the successor to Nvidia’s Hopper H100 and H200 GPUs.
It represents a massive generational leap in computational power.
AI Performance: The B200 GPU delivers 4 times the AI training performance and 30 times the inference performance compared to its predecessor.
Transistor Count: It packs an impressive 208 billion transistors, more than doubling the transistor count of the existing H100.
Memory: The B200 features 192GB of HBM3e memory with an impressive bandwidth of 8 TB/s.
Architecture: The Blackwell architecture takes over from H100/H200.
*Dual-Die Configuration: The B200 is not a single GPU in the traditional sense. Instead, it consists of two tightly coupled die, functioning as one unified CUDA GPU. These chips are linked via a 10 TB/s NV-HBI connection to ensure coherent operation.
*Dual-die packaging technology is used to pack two integrated circuit chips in one single package module. It doubles functionality levels.
Process Node: The B200 utilizes TSMC’s 4NP process node, a refined version of the 4N process used by Hopper H100 and Ada Lovelace architecture GPUs.
The Blackwell B200 is designed for data centres and AI workloads but will likely be available to expect consumer in the future, although these may differ significantly from the data centre model.
Grace Blackwell GB200 Superchip:
Nvidia’s GB200 Grace Blackwell Superchip, with two B200 graphics processors and one Arm-based central processor
This superchip pairs the Grace CPU architecture with the updated Blackwell GPU.
It’s another addition to Nvidia’s lineup, combining CPU and GPU power for advanced computing tasks.
Nvidia continues to push the boundaries of accelerated computing, and these new GPUs promise remarkable performance improvements for AI and other workloads.
Onwards and upwards for Nvidia and the advancement of AI.
As tech giant Nvidia soars on hype around artificial intelligence (AI), and as global stock indexes claim record highs, debate has grown about whether the stock market has entered a ‘bubble.’
An AI bubble of boom
We are reminded of the dotcom bubble where investment was rife in anything tech – so, are we now potentially facing a new tech bubble – an AI bubble of boom?
That’s generally seen as a period in which asset prices inflate rapidly, potentially beyond their core value; and risk crashing just as fast.
Other AI stocks are chasing the dream too adding to the hype. However, some are in the slow lane playing catch-up and this may suggest there is much, much more to come.
The likes of AMD, Intel, Amazon, OpenAI, Arm and a myriad of other tech companies big and small have much more AI to bring to the tech table.
Let’s use Nvidia as an example of a potential stock bubble
If we look at the valuation of Nvidia, justifiably it is actually very high, too high even – that’s the first sign of a potential problem, valuation. The second issue is investor positioning – whenever you have a market bubble, investors are very clustered or very concentrated, either in one market or in one sector as a whole.
Nvidia one year chart as of 29th February 2024. Price 791
Nvidia one year chart as of 29th February 2024. Price 791
Sectors
It doesn’t matter which markets you look at – the U.S., Europe or Asia markets – the problem is the same. We now have an historic valuation between the tech sector, the AI sub-sector of the tech sector, and the rest of the market.
Investors are very clustered in this tech sector. However, some leading commentators say of tech that this is not hype – this is real. It most probably is, for now, and with much more to come from the smaller tech and AI companies that have yet to show their true AI value. But all bubbles burst in the end.
Pop!
There is certainly plenty of room for AI to grow – it’s in its infancy – but the question is: ‘how and when will the bubble burst? Because, in my humble opinion, it most certainly will.
We may not see a dramatic market crash like 1999-2000 or 2007/2008, but an investor rotation out of areas of concentration into the broader market will likely happen.
If you look at the bubbles of 1999-2000, and then in 2007/2008, one key characteristic was investor leverage. And we had, whether it was retail investors or institutional investors, a very high level of leverage, and that was either through borrowings or it was through derivatives.
The AI tech boom has legs but there will almost inevitably be a rotation from AI to other sectors – that will then adjust the overvalued AI sector. And it could pullback quite hard.
The S&P 500 surged to a new all-time high on Thursday 22nd February 2024
Microchip maker Nvidia reported much stronger-than-expected quarterly results, lifting tech sector and markets higher.
S&P 500
The S&P 500 gained just over 2% to close at 5087, notching its best day since January 2023. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.96% for its best day since February 2023, closing at 16041 and ever closer to its all-time high.
Nasdaq
The tech-heavy index is very close now to its all-time closing high of 16,057.44.
Dow
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 456 points to surpass 39000 for the first time ever and close at a new high of 39069.
Shares of Nvidia climbed around 16% to an all-time high after the company said total revenue rose a massive 265% from a year ago.
Nvidia, which has become one of the largest U.S. companies by market capitalization, also forecast another stellar revenue gain for the current quarter.
The excitement surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) technology appears to show few signs of abating
The technology company at the heart of the AI chip boom reported its Q4 earnings after the stock market’s close on Wednesday 21st February 2024, beating expectations for both earnings and sales. The company’s total revenue is up 265% from a year ago.
Investors are looking to Nvidia’s latest quarterly earnings report to see whether the company’s meteoric growth can last.
Nvidia one year share price as at 22nd February 2024
Nvidia one year share price as at 22nd February 2024
AI chips
Nvidia makes powerful computer chips that power popular AI tools like OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Microsoft’s Copilot. High demand for those chips has propelled the company into the exclusive trillion-dollar club.
As of market close on 21st February 2024 the company’s market cap sat at $1.667 trillion, putting it behind Alphabet’s $1.779 trillion market cap. It’s also behind Microsoft and Apple, which hold market caps of $2.988 trillion and $2.819 trillion, respectively.
Nvidia’s stock price has been on an upward trajectory so far this year. Shares have gained by nearly 40% since the beginning of 2024. On top of that, they’ve soared by over 225% in the last 12 months.
Although short-term demand for Nvidia’s AI chips has been strong, major companies such as Microsoft and Meta have indicated interest in buying them from other companies.
If you had invested $1,000 in Nvidia
If you had invested $1,000 in Nvidia five, 10 or 24 years ago, here’s how much your investment would be worth now.
$1,000 in Nvidia five years ago, your investment would have increased by an eye-watering 1,015% and be worth around $17,542 as of 20th February 2024.
If you had invested $1,000 in Nvidia 10 years ago, your investment would have soared by about 22,340% and be worth around $148,226 as of 20th February 2024.
But, if you had invested $1,000 in Nvidia in January 1999, when Nvidia first went public, your investment would have grown by around 277,708% and be worth close to $2,784,065 as of 20th February 2024.
The Magnificent Seven, or MAMA ANT, is a term coined by Bank of America to describe the seven most dominant tech companies in the world
The Seven are: Microsoft, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, and Alphabet. These companies have not only led the tech sector in terms of innovation, growth, and profitability, but have also become some of the most valuable entities in the world by market capitalization.
Valuation at $15 trillion
Market capitalization, or market cap, is the total value of all the shares of a company that are traded on the stock market. It reflects the market’s perception of the company’s future prospects and earnings potential.
As of January 2023, the Magnificent Seven had a combined market cap of about $15 trillion, which was more than the gross domestic product (GDP) of almost every country in the world, except for the United States, China and Japan (just).
Magnificent Seven
The Magnificent Seven have achieved such a remarkable feat by leveraging their core competencies in various fields of technology, such as artificial intelligence (AI), cloud computing, social media, e-commerce, gaming, electric vehicles, and online advertising. They have also diversified their revenue streams by acquiring or developing new products and services, such as Activision Blizzard, AWS, Oculus, iPhone, GeForce, SpaceX, and YouTube. They have also benefited from the increased demand for digital solutions amid the Covid-19 pandemic, which accelerated the adoption of online platforms, remote work, and entertainment.
Challenges
However, the Magnificent Seven also face some challenges and risks that could threaten their dominance and valuation. These include increasing competition from other tech companies, especially from China, such as Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, and Huawei.
They also face regulatory scrutiny and pressure from governments and consumers over issues such as antitrust, privacy, taxation, content moderation, and environmental impact. Furthermore, they may encounter technical difficulties, security breaches, or ethical dilemmas that could damage their reputation and customer trust.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the Magnificent Seven are the most powerful and influential tech companies in the world, and their market cap surpasses that of almost every country in the world.
List of 10 countries by stock market capitalization
List of 10 countries by stock market capitalisation
The meteoric rise in the profits and market capitalisations of the Magnificent 7 U.S. tech giants: Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla – outstrip those of all listed companies in almost every G20 country. Of the non-U.S. G20 countries, only China and Japan (and the latter, only just) have greater profits when their listed companies are combined.
They have achieved this by exploiting their competitive advantages in various domains of technology and expanding their offerings and markets. However, they also need to overcome some challenges and risks that could hamper their growth and value in the future.
A forced size reduction to stop the monopolising of market share could help tame these beasts too and open up fairer competition.
Should we worry?
Basically, yes, we should be concerned about the size and dominance of these companies.
This level of wealth and power concentrated in just a handful of companies has led some analysts to voice concerns over related risks in the U.S. and global stock markets.
Economists and stock market analysts have cautioned that the U.S. stock market is rivalling 2000 and 1929 in terms of being at its most concentrated in history.
Arm’s strong growth forecast has led investors to declare it an AI darling
Arm shares soared 29% on Monday, extending last week’s rally as investors continue to applaud the chipmaker’s better-than-expected third-quarter earnings and its position in the artificial intelligence boom.
Up 93% since 8th February 2024
Arm is now up 93% since it reported quarterly figures on 8th February 2024. There is no obvious reason for the 29% climb on Monday. The fear of missing out (FOMO) could be playing a part in the meteoric share price move.
The stock has almost tripled since Arm’s initial public offering in September 2023, closing at $148.97 and is now worth almost $153 billion, that’s a little more than $30 billion below Intel’s market cap.
Arm 1 year chart showing huge gain in February 2024
Arm 1 year chart showing huge gain in February 2024
AI demand fuels Arm’s success
Last week, Arm said it could double the price for its latest instruction set, which accounts for 15% of the company’s royalties, suggesting it can expand its margin and make more money off new chips. It also said it was breaking into new markets, such as cloud servers and automotive, due to AI demand.
Its royalty strength combined with Arm’s optimistic growth forecast has made the company the latest AI darling among investors, despite a higher earnings multiple than Nvidia or AMD.
U.S. microchip giant Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is investing in AI PCs to take on the likes of Nvidia and Intel and Arm as the AI race gains momentum.
As the AI market expands so too will AI powered personal computer (PC). These are personal computers embedded with processors specifically designed to perform AI functions such as real-time language translation. Intel has already announced its AI powered chip for the PC.
Tech research firm Canalys in a December report said the boom in generative AI is expected to boost PC sales as consumers are seeking devices with AI features, predicting that 60% of the PCs shipped in 2027 will be AI-capable.
AI tech interest explodes
An explosion of interest in AI was sparked by the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022 as the chatbot went viral for its ability to generate human-like responses to users’ prompts.
Microsoft was quick to adopt the Technolgy and incorporate AI into its Bing search engine. Other companies such as Amazon, Alphabet (Google), Arm, Meta, Tesla and Apple are all heavily involved in AI development too.
The Magnificent Seven is a term coined to describe the seven most valuable and popularly owned tech companies in the U.S. stock market.
It was also a 1960’s movie…
The Seven
Apple (AAPL)
The world’s largest software company, known for its iPhone, iPad, Mac, Apple Watch, AirPods, and other devices, as well as its services such as iCloud, Apple Music, Apple TV+, and App Store.
Microsoft (MSFT)
The world’s largest software company, known for its Windows operating system, Azure cloud services, LinkedIn social media platform, Office professional software suite, and Xbox gaming brand.
Alphabet (GOOGL)
The parent company of Google, the world’s leading search engine, as well as other businesses such as YouTube, Google Cloud, Google Maps, Google Ads, and Waymo.
Amazon (AMZN)
The world’s largest online retailer, as well as a leading provider of cloud computing services through Amazon Web Services (AWS), and a major player in digital entertainment through Amazon Prime Video, Amazon Music, and Kindle.
Meta Platforms (META)
The former Facebook, the world’s largest social media network, as well as the owner of other popular platforms such as Instagram, WhatsApp, Messenger, and Oculus.
Nvidia (NVDA)
The world’s leading manufacturer of graphics processing units (GPUs), which are used for gaming, artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and cryptocurrency mining, as well as other products such as Nvidia Shield, GeForce Now, and Omniverse.
Tesla (TSLA)
The world’s most valuable automaker, known for its electric vehicles, battery products, solar panels, and self-driving technology, as well as its visionary founder and CEO, Elon Musk.
Market dominance
These seven companies are not only dominant in their respective fields, but also at the forefront of innovation and growth in the tech sector. They collectively make up some 30% of the S&P 500 index and more than half of the Nasdaq 100 index.
They have also delivered impressive returns for investors over the past five years, with Nvidia and Tesla leading the pack with more than 800% gains. The Magnificent Seven are often compared to the FAANG stocks, which include four of the seven companies, but exclude Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla, and include Netflix instead.
Some analysts suggest that the Magnificent Seven capture the current state and future potential of the tech industry. But is it now time to rotate out of tech into other areas that have been neglected. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the bull market charge on but with other ‘less’ loved companies leading the way.
It has been calculated that the combined market cap value of these seven companies is some $9 trillion.
Intel’s new chip will go head-to-head with Nvidia and AMD
Intel unveiled new computer microchips on Thursday 14th December 2023, including Gaudi3, a chip for generative AI software.
Intel also announced Core Ultra chips, designed for Windows laptops and PCs, and new fifth-generation Xeon server chips. Intel’s server and PC processors include specialized AI parts called NPUs that can be used to run AI programs faster.
AI race
AI models, like OpenAI’s ChatGPT, run on Nvidia GPUs in the cloud. It’s one reason Nvidia stock has been up nearly 230% year to date while Intel shares have risen 68%. And it’s why companies like AMD and, now Intel, have announced chips that they hope will attract AI companies away from Nvidia’s dominant position in the market.
Gaudi3 will compete with Nvidia’s H100, the main choice among companies that build huge factories of the chips to power AI applications, and AMD’s forthcoming MI300X, when it starts shipping to customers in 2024.
CEO Gelsinger
‘We’ve been seeing the excitement with generative AI, the star of the show for 2023,’ Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger reportedly said at a launch event in New York where he announced Gaudi3 along other chips focused on AI applications.
Intel upping the anti with its Gaudi AI chip. The AI PC to become the new AI start of 2024 and beyond!
‘We think the AI PC will be the star of the show for the upcoming year,’ Gelsinger added. And that’s where Intel’s new Core Ultra processors, also announced on Thursday, will come into play.
Amazon Web Services (AWS) announced Trainium2, a chip for training artificial intelligence (AI) models, and it will also offer access to Nvidia’s next-generation H200 Tensor Core graphics processing units.
Amazon’s AWS cloud department of the encompassing Amazon empire has announced new chips for customers to build and run artificial intelligence (AI) applications on, as well as plans to offer access to Nvidia’s latest chips.
Amazon Web Services is attempting to stand out as a cloud provider with a variety of cost-effective options. It won’t just sell cheap Amazon-branded products, though. Just as in its online retail marketplace, Amazon’s cloud will feature top-of-the-line products from other vendors, including highly sought after GPUs from top AI chipmaker Nvidia
Amazon’s dual-pronged approach of both building its own chips and letting customers access Nvidia’s latest chips might will help it against its top cloud computing competitor, Microsoft.
Nvidia’s revenue grew 206% from year 2022 during the quarter ending 29th October 2023, according to data from Nvidia.
Net income, at $9.24 billion, or $3.71 per share, was up from $680 million, in the same quarter of 2022.
The company’s data centre revenue came in at: $14.51 billion, up a massive 279% and above consensus of $12.97 billion. Half of the data centre revenue came from cloud infrastructure providers such as Amazon, and the other from consumer internet and large companies, Nvidia said. Healthy uptake also came from clouds that specialized in renting out GPUs to clients.
Earnings: $4.02 per share, adjusted, vs. $3.37 per share expected
Revenue: $18.12 billion, vs. $16.18 billion expected
The gaming segment contributed $2.86 billion, up 81% and higher than the $2.68 billion general consensus. Nvidia’s future guidance suggested $20 billion in revenue for Q4, implying a nearly 231% revenue growth.
Year on year Nvidia share price movement.
Year on year Nvidia share price movement – Nov 2022 – Nov 2023
During the quarter, Nvidia announced the GH200 GPU, which has more memory than the current H100 and an additional Arm processor onboard. The H100 is expensive and in demand. Nvidia said Australia-based Iris Energy, an owner of bitcoin mining data centers, was buying 248 H100s for $10 million, which works out around $40,000 each.
Nvidia share price moved down 1% in after-hours trading on Tuesday 21st November 2023 after the reporting fiscal Q3 results that surpassed predictions. But the company called for a negative impact in the next quarter because of export restrictions affecting sales to organizations in China and other countries.
‘We expect that our sales to these destinations decline significantly in the Q4 2024, though we believe the decline will be more than offset by strong growth in other regions’, Nvidia reported.
Nvidia stock closes at all-time high, a day before earnings
Shares of Nvidia closed up 2.3% at an all-time high of $504 on Monday 20th November 2023. The record comes ahead of the company’s Q3 results due Tuesday 21st November 2023, when analysts are expecting to see revenue growth of over 170%.
And, if that’s not enough, the forecast for Q4, according to some analysts, is likely to show a number close to 200% growth.
Nvidia is still by far the market leader in GPUs for AI, but high prices and competition are fast becoming an issue.
Can Nvidia continue the AI ride and hold this remarkable market share position?
Nvidia has recently announced its latest high-end chip, the GH200 Grace Hopper Superchip, which is designed for training AI models at giant scale.
The GH200 is a breakthrough accelerated CPU that combines the NVIDIA Grace™ and Hopper™ architectures using NVIDIA® NVLink®-C2C to deliver a CPU+GPU coherent memory model for AI and HPC applications. The superchip delivers up to 10X higher performance for applications running terabytes of data, enabling scientists and researchers to reach unprecedented solutions for the world’s most complex problems.
The technical bit
The GH200 features 72 cores of Grace CPU outfitted with 480 GB of ECC LPDDR5X memory, as well as the GH100 compute GPU that is paired with 141 GB of HBM3E memory that comes in six 24 GB stacks and uses a 6,144-bit memory interface.
The GH200 also has a new 900 gigabytes per second (GB/s) coherent interface, which is 7X faster than PCIe Gen5, and supercharges accelerated computing and generative AI with HBM3 and HBM3e GPU memory. The GH200 can run all NVIDIA software stacks and platforms, including NVIDIA AI Enterprise, HPC SDK, and Omniverse™.
Nvidia unveils its newest GH200 high-end AI Superchip.
The GH200 is available as part of the NVIDIA DGX GH200, a massive memory supercomputer that fully connects 256 GH200 Superchips into a singular GPU. The DGX GH200 offers 144 terabytes (TB) of shared memory with linear scalability for giant AI models.
The DGX GH200 is a turnkey data centre-class solution that includes integrated software and white-glove services from NVIDIA, from design to deployment, to speed the ROI of AI.
The DGX GH200 is the only AI supercomputer that offers a massive, shared memory space of 144TB across 256 NVIDIA Grace Hopper Superchips, providing developers with nearly 500X more memory to build giant models.
Apple and generative AI technology is a topic that has been generating a lot of interest and speculation lately.
According to various reports, Apple is working on developing its own large language model and chatbot, which could potentially enhance its products and services with new features and capabilities. However, some analysts and experts have also raised questions about whether Apple has missed an opportunity to be a leader in the generative AI field, as it seems to be lagging behind its competitors such as Google, Microsoft, and OpenAI.
Apple uses AI in its products but hasn’t launched a generative AI product along the lines of OpenAI’s ChatGPT or Google Bard. Instead, Apple’s AI is used for improving photos and autocorrecting text.
$1 billion per year plan
Apple is on track to spend $1 billion per year on developing its generative artificial intelligence products, Bloomberg reported.
Apple is looking to use AI to improve Siri, Messages and Apple Music.
The spending comes as the company plays catch-up to some competitors who have already debuted new AI products and features, such as Google, Microsoft and Amazon.
Apple was caught flat-footed when ChatGPT and other AI tools took the technology industry by storm.
Generative AI
Generative AI is a subfield of artificial intelligence that focuses on creating content such as text, images, videos, music, and more, based on data and algorithms. One of the most popular examples of generative AI is ChatGPT, a chatbot that can respond to questions and other prompts in a natural and human-like way.
Watercolour artwork impression – ChatGPT was released by OpenAI in 2022, and since then, it has been widely used and improved by various companies and researchers.
ChatGPT was released by OpenAI in 2022, and since then, it has been widely used and improved by various companies and researchers.
Apple slow response
Apple, on the other hand, has been relatively quiet about its generative AI efforts, until recently. In October 2023, Bloomberg reported that Apple was internally testing a ‘ChatGPT-like’ chatbot nicknamed ‘Apple GPT’, but it had not devised a clear strategy for releasing generative AI tools to the public. Apple’s CEO Tim Cook also confirmed that the company was working on generative AI for years, but it was approaching it ‘really thoughtfully and think about it deeply’ because of the potential risks and challenges.
Potential challenges Apple faces in developing and deploying generative AI
Privacy
Apple has always been more cautious than its competitors in handling user data, and it has built its reputation on being a privacy-focused company. However, generative AI requires a lot of data to train and improve its models, which could pose a dilemma for Apple. How can it balance the need for data with the respect for user privacy? How can it ensure that its generative AI does not leak or misuse personal information?
Design
Apple is known for its elegant and intuitive design philosophy, which applies to both its hardware and software products. However, generative AI is a complex and unpredictable technology, which could challenge Apple’s design principles. How can it make its generative AI features easy to use and understand for its customers? How can it avoid confusing or misleading users with its generative AI outputs?
Ethics
Apple has always been mindful of the social and ethical implications of its products, and it has often taken a stance on issues such as human rights, environmental sustainability, and diversity. However, generative AI could raise new ethical concerns, such as bias, misinformation and manipulation. But then that is a common problem for all generative AI systems.
Generative AI could raise new ethical concerns, such as bias, misinformation and manipulation.
These are some of the questions that Apple needs to answer before it can launch its generative AI products to the public. It is possible that Apple is taking its time to address these issues carefully and thoroughly, as it has done in the past with other technologies such as Face ID or Apple Pay. However, it is also possible that Apple has missed an opportunity to be a pioneer in the generative AI field, as it has done in the past with other technologies such as smart speakers or cloud computing.
While Apple is working on its generative AI projects internally, its competitors are already offering generative AI.
Google
Google has integrated its large language model LaMDA into various products and services, such as Google Assistant, Google Photos, Google Docs, Google Translate etc. LaMDA can generate natural and conversational responses to any query or prompt, as well as create images and videos based on text descriptions.
Microsoft
Microsoft has acquired OpenAI’s ChatGPT technology and made it available through its Azure cloud platform. ChatGPT can be used by developers and businesses to create chatbots, voice assistants, content generators, and more. Microsoft has also integrated ChatGPT into some of its products such as Outlook, Teams, PowerPoint, and more.
Amazon
Amazon has launched Alexa Conversations, a feature that allows Alexa users to have more natural and engaging conversations with the voice assistant. Alexa Conversations can also leverage Amazon’s vast e-commerce data to provide personalized recommendations and suggestions to users.
These are just some examples of how generative AI is being used by Apple’s competitors.
Robot chatting to human chatbot online
Apple has missed an opportunity to be a leader in the generative AI field by being too slow or too cautious in developing and deploying its own generative AI products.
However, it is highly likely that Apple is waiting for the right moment to surprise everyone with its innovative and unique generative AI features that will set it apart from its competitors.
The curbs are aimed at closing loopholes that became apparent after the U.S. announced export curbs on microchips in October 2022. The restrictions are designed to prevent China’s military from importing advanced semiconductors or equipment.
Nvidia has said in a filing that the new export restrictions will block sales of two high-end artificial intelligence chips it created for the Chinese market – A800 and H800. It said that one of its gaming chips will also be blocked.
Nvidia Corp one month chart – closed at 439.38 17th October 2023
Although the curbs also affect other chip makers, analysts believe Nvidia will be hit the hardest because China accounts for up to 25% of its revenues from data centre chip sales. Nvidia’s shares, which are considered a star stock, fell by as much as 4.7% in the wake of the announcement.
Semiconductor Industry Association
The Semiconductor Industry Association, which represents 99% of the U.S. semiconductor industry by revenue, said in a statement that the new measures are ‘overly broad‘ and ‘risk harmingthe U.S. semiconductor structure without advancing national security as they encourage overseas customers to source elsewhere’.
China reacts
A spokesperson for the Chinese embassy also said that it ‘firmly opposes‘ the new restrictions, which also target Iran and Russia and go into effect in 30 days.
Nvidia stock falls after restrictions on AI chip exports from U.S. to China
Two months ago, China retaliated by restricting exports of two materials, gallium and germanium, which are key to the semiconductor industry.
The materials are ‘minor metals‘, meaning that they are not usually found on their own in nature, and are often the by-product of other processes. It’s not only the U.S., Japan and the Netherlands – which is home to key chip equipment maker ASML – have also imposed chip technology export restrictions on China.
Fallout
The constant ‘fall-out’ between the world’s two biggest economies has raised concerns over the rise of so-called ‘resource nationalism‘ – a practice where governments hoard critical materials to exert influence over other countries.
These are the seven largest U.S. listed companies in the technology sector.
Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Nvidia, Tesla and Meta Platforms.
According to a report released Monday 2nd October 2023, these tech’ stocks have seen their valuation drop relative to the median stock in the S&P 500, making them more attractive for investors. The report says that the Magnificent 7 trade at 1.3 times their PEG ratio (price-to-earnings-to-long-term growth), versus 1.9 for the median S&P 500 stock.
This is the cheapest valuation in over six years – time to buy yet?
The report also highlights some positive drivers for these stocks, such as their strong sales growth, their ability to beat expectations, and their resilience to rising interest rates.
However, some analysts also warn that the dominance of these stocks could pose a risk for the broader market if something bad happens to tech’.
Reports suggest as much as $3 trillion is waiting on the sidelines to be invested in tech’.
AI FOMO
The reasoning is that AI is driving a fear of missing out (FOMO). We could very well be experiencing the fourth industrial revolution right now, and it is AI-driven. Strategically, companies can’t just sit around and wait. There’s a window where if they don’t join in or realise the potential and grab the opportunity, they’ll miss out.
IPO’s
Three of the biggest initial public offerings (IPO) in the tech’ sector in nearly two years raised some $6 billion collectively in less than a week. Nvidia has attracted much attention with the AI driven interest it has created recently.
While a handful of tech IPOs and one big acquisition wouldn’t have been much cause for celebration in previous years, they are a welcome return after the drought of pandemic-era hit investment.
The IPO market for tech was effectively shut down until Arm Holdings, Instacart and Klaviyo opened the investors door again. Merger activity such as that driven by Microsoft Corp., OpenAI ChatGPT and Activision Blizzard Inc. is helping to lift up the appetitie for investment again. And it’s pretty much AI induced.
Money ready to go
Some analysts suggest there is $3 trillion sitting on the sidelines ready to invest, mostly held by Big Tech and private equity companies. The fascination with artificial intelligence (AI) and fear of missing out (FOMO) will create massive AI led tech investing opportunities. Everyone will want a slice of this cake.
This could very well be the biggest transformational spending wave that we’ve seen in years and certainly since the internet arrived in 1995.
Just look out for that ‘bubble’ again – it will pop! But much money will be made before that happens and then again after.
The Magnificent Seven is a term to describe seven tech’ stocks that have been surging in 2023.
Meta Platforms (formerly Facebook), the social media giant that also owns Instagram, WhatsApp, and Oculus.
Apple, the maker of the iPhone, iPad, Mac, Apple Watch, AirPods, and other popular devices and services including cloud and Apple TV streaming service.
Amazon, the e-commerce leader that also operates AWS, Prime Video, Alexa, and Whole Foods.
Alphabet, the parent company of Google, YouTube, Gmail, Google Cloud, and Waymo.
Microsoft, the software company that owns Windows, Office, Azure, LinkedIn, Xbox, and Teams.
Nvidia, the semiconductor company that produces graphics cards, gaming devices, data center solutions, and AI platforms.
Tesla, the electric vehicle maker that also develops solar panels, batteries, and autonomous driving technology.
Dominant
These seven stocks are considered to be dominant in their respective fields and have strong growth prospects driven by innovation and artificial intelligence (AI).
They have outperformed the broader market and attracted many investors who are looking for exposure to the tech’ sector. Some analysts believe that these stocks will continue to lead the market in the future, while others caution that they may face regulatory challenges, competition, or valuation issues.
Approximate combined market cap of the Magnificent Seven tech stocks
The approximate combined market cap value of the Magnificent Seven as of September 2023 is approximately $11.8 trillion.
Apple: $2.5 trillion
Microsoft: $2.3 trillion
Alphabet: $1.9 trillion
Amazon: $1.7 trillion
Nvidia: $0.8 trillion
Meta Platforms: $0.9 trillion
Tesla: $0.7 trillion
Note that these values will change over time as the stock prices fluctuate.
A way to trade the tech sector is through funds
There are many funds that can trade tech stocks, depending on your investment objectives, risk tolerance, and preferences.
Technology mutual funds: These are funds that invest in a diversified portfolio of technology companies across different industries, such as software, hardware, internet, cloud, biotech, and more. Technology mutual funds can offer exposure to the growth potential of the tech sector, as well as reduce the volatility and risk of investing in individual stocks.
Some examples of technology mutual funds are Fidelity Select Technology Portfolio (FSELX), Columbia Global Technology Growth Fund (CGTYX), and Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth Index Fund (SCHG).
Which tech fund to invest in?
Technology exchange-traded funds (ETFs): These are funds that track an index of technology stocks and trade on an exchange like a stock. Technology ETFs can offer low-cost and convenient access to the tech sector, as well as allow investors to choose from different themes, such as cybersecurity, artificial intelligence (AI), cloud computing and more.
Some examples of technology ETFs are Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK), and VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH).
Technology index funds: These are funds that replicate the performance of a specific technology index, such as the Nasdaq 100, the S&P 500 Information Technology Index, or the Morningstar U.S. Technology Index. Technology index funds can offer broad and passive exposure to the tech sector, as well as low fees and high tax efficiency.
Some examples of technology index funds are Fidelity NASDAQ Composite Index Fund (FNCMX), Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund Admiral Shares (VITAX), and iShares Morningstar U.S. Technology ETF (IYW).
NOTE: These are not recommendations. Investments may go up or down. Your money is at risk!
Chip design firm Arm on 5th September 2023 submitted an updated filing for its upcoming initial public offering on the New York Stock Exchange, setting a price range between $47 and $51. Only 9.4% of Arm’s shares will be freely traded on the NYSE.
Arm was previously listed in London and New York, before SoftBank acquired it for $32 billion in 2016.
Chip design firm Arm on Tuesday is looking to acquire as much as $4.87 billion in its upcoming initial public offering on the New York Stock Exchange, according to the new filing.
The deal could value the company at as much as $52 billion
As a British company, Arm qualifies as a foreign private issuer in the U.S. and its shares will count as American depositary shares, or ADS’s. It is reported that the company will list some 95.5 million ADS’s at a price range of between $47 and $51. At the upper end of that range it is estimated that Arm will likely raise up to $4.87 billion. At the lower end, the IPO would fetch $4.49 billion of fresh capital for Arm. It could do even better.
Institutional funds
When the company floats in New York, it will look to enjoy a very deep pool of professional institutional funds. Arm seeks to ramp up its investments in research and development, particularly as it pursues growth in the artificial intelligence (AI) space with some of its newer chips. The company recently released new chips specifically targeted at AI and machine learning use cases.
Arm seeks up to $52 billion valuation in U.S. IPO
Upper end
At the upper end of the pricing range, Arm would also touch a total valuation of $52 billion or more. Only 9.4% of Arm’s shares will be freely traded on the New York Stock Exchange, with SoftBank expected to own roughly 90.6% of the company’s outstanding shares after the completion of the IPO.
Arm’s listing is set to be the biggest technology IPO of the year. Investors are hoping that the listing could breathe new life into an IPO market that has been ‘slack’ since 2022.
250 billion chips globally
Arm says its energy-efficient processor designs and software platforms are integrated into more than 250 billion chips globally, into products ranging from sensors and smartphones to supercomputers.
The company estimates it enjoys approximately 48.9% share of the market for semiconductor design. Other players, such as Intel and AMD, have raced to catch up on designing their own chip architectures, but have struggled so far.
U.K. misses out… again
The U.K. government had originally hoped Arm would list on the London Stock Exchange, but the company instead dealt a major blow to Britain’s ambitions to become the leading global tech hub by opting for New York. The U.S. financial center has a deep institutional investor base and analysts who have a close understanding of the technology sector.
BIG interest
Chip design firm Arm said in a Tuesday filing that Apple, Google parent Alphabet, Nvidia and other technology companies are interested in buying up to $735 million in its shares as it seeks to go public on Nasdaq.
The investments might not happen, but the fact that these companies are considering them underlines the importance of Arm, whose designs are used for processors in data center servers, consumer devices and industrial products.
Arm chip – some 250 billion chips globally
Chip makers Intel, Samsung and TSMC are interested in investing alongside the three trillion-dollar technology companies, along with AMD and MediaTek, which make chip designs based on Arm architectures. Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys, which make electronic design automation software for processor development, have also expressed interest, according to a revised prospectus for Arm’s shares sale. This IPO could easily be the biggest of the 2023!
As part of the deal, Arm could wind up with a $52 billion market capitalization and almost $5 billion in new cash.
This is likely to be the biggest IPO of 2023
It is estimated that there will be about 19 billion devices using the Arm processor in the world by the end of 2023.
Arm target
The market share of Arm across different technology markets worldwide, which was 90% for mobile application processors, 34% for embedded computing, and 5% for data center and cloud in 2019.
Arm has a target of increasing its market share to more than 90%, 50%, and 25% respectively by 2028.
Nvidia shares rose 4.2% Tuesday 29th August 2023 to close at a record high, after the company announced a partnership with Google that could expand distribution of its artificial intelligence technology (AI).
The stock’s bountiful run continued, now up 234% in 2023, making it by far the best performer in the S&P 500. Facebook parent Meta is second in the index, up 148% so far this year.
The record close comes less than a week after the company said quarterly revenue doubled from a year earlier and gave a forecast indicating that sales this period could rise 170% on an annual basis. The day after the better-than-expected earnings report, the stock climbed to a record intraday high of $502.66 before declining later in the afternoon.
Nvidia’s business is booming because its graphics processing (GPU’s) are being gobbled up by cloud companies, government agencies and startups to train and deploy generative AI models like the technology deployed in OpenAI’s ChatGPT as fasta as Nvidia can make them.
NVIDIA stock chart
Nvidia announcment
On Tuesday 29th August 2023, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang appeared at a Google conference to announce an AI agreement between the two companies.
Through the partnership, Google’s cloud customers will have greater access to technology powered by Nvidia’s powerful H100 GPUs.
‘Our expanded collaboration with Google Cloud will help developers accelerate their work with infrastructure, software and services that supercharge energy efficiency and reduce costs’, the Nvidia CEO reportedly said in a blog post.
Nvidia’s GPUs are also available on competing cloud platforms from Amazon and Microsoft.
Technology giant Nvidia reports its sales have hit a record after more than doubling as demand for its artificial intelligence (AI) chips take off!
It figures
The company says revenue jumped to above $13.5bn (£10.6bn) for the three months to the end of June. Nvidia also expects sales to perform very well in the current quarter and plans to buy back $25bn of its stock. The firm’s shares rose by more than 6.5% in extended trading in New York, adding to their huge gains this year. Nvidia also said it expects revenue of around $16bn for the three months to the end of September 2023.
That is substantially higher than Wall Street expected and would equate to a rise of around 170%, compared to the same time last year.
Even before 23rd August’s figures, Nvidia’s stock price had more than tripled for the year, making it the top performer in the S&P 500. It’s share price jumped to around $500 after hours, a level that would mark a record if it closes there on 24th August 2023. Its prior closing high was $474.94 on 18th July 2023.
‘A new computing era has begun’, Nvidia’s chief executive, Jensen Huang, said in a statement. ‘Companies worldwide are transitioning from general-purpose to accelerated computing and generative AI’, he reportedly added.
Strong performance
The strong performance was driven by Nvidia’s data centre business, which includes AI chips.
The power of Nvidia’s AI microchips
Revenue for that unit came in at more $10.3bn, a rise of more than 170% from year ago, as cloud computing service providers and large consumer internet companies snapped up its next-generation processors.
This year, Nvidia’s stock market value has jumped to more than $1 trillion as its shares more than tripled in value, mking it the fifth publicly traded U.S. company to join the so-called ‘Trillion dollar club’, along with Apple, Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft.
AI ‘mania’ helps Nvidia
Nvidia have been making micro chips for a long time and it’s only really been in the last couple of years that the market has caught on.
Nvidia was originally known for making the type of computer chips that process graphics, particularly for computer games. They have been making chips for a long time and have now become the leader in AI chip design and manufacture.
Now Nvidia’s hardware is the foundation for most AI applications, with one report suggesting it had cornered 95% of the market for machine learning.
ChatGPT which generates human-like responses to user queries within seconds was trained using 10,000 of Nvidia’s graphics processing units clustered together in a supercomputer belonging to Microsoft.
AI products are expected to dramatically change how we use computers and the role they play in our lives.
