Microsoft joins Nvidia in the $4 trillion Market Cap club

Microdift and Nvidia only two companies in exclusive $4 trillion market cap club

In a landmark moment for the tech industry, Microsoft has officially joined Nvidia in the exclusive $4 trillion market capitalisation club, following a surge in its share price after stellar Q4 earnings.

This accolade achieved on 31st July 2025 marks a dramatic shift in the hierarchy of global tech giants, with Microsoft briefly overtaking Nvidia to become the world’s most valuable company. But for how long?

The rally was fuelled by Microsoft’s aggressive investment in artificial intelligence and cloud infrastructure. Azure, its cloud platform, posted a 39% year-on-year revenue increase, surpassing $75 billion in annual sales.

The company’s Copilot AI tools, now boasting over 100 million monthly active users, have become central to its strategy, embedding generative AI across productivity software, development platforms, and enterprise services.

Microsoft’s transformation from a traditional software provider to an AI-first powerhouse has been swift and strategic. Its partnerships with OpenAI, Meta, and xAI, combined with over $100 billion in planned capital expenditure, signal a long-term commitment to shaping the future of AI utility.

While Nvidia dominates the hardware side of the AI revolution, Microsoft is staking its claim as the platform through which AI is experienced.

This milestone not only redefines Microsoft’s legacy—it redraws the map of pure tech power and reach the company has around the world.

This has been earned over decades of business commitment.

Are investors saying it’s time to move on from tariffs and if so to what effect on the markets?

Tariffs and the Markets

It looks like investor sentiment is shifting away from obsessing over tariffs—though not because they’ve disappeared.

Instead, there’s a growing sense that tariffs may be settling into a predictable range, especially in the U.S., where President Trump signalled a blanket rate of 15–20% for countries lacking specific trade agreements.

Here’s how that’s playing out

🌐 Why Investors Are Moving On

  • Predictability over Panic: With clearer expectations around tariff levels, markets may no longer treat them as wildcards.
  • Muted Market Reaction: The recent U.S.-EU trade deal barely nudged the S&P 500 or European indexes after moving the futures initially, signalling tariffs aren’t the hot trigger they once were.
  • Economists Cooling Expectations: Revisions to tariff impact estimates suggest future trade deals might not generate outsized optimism on Wall Street.

📈 Effects on the Markets

  • Focus Shift: Investors are turning to earnings—particularly from the ‘Magnificent Seven’ tech giants—and macroeconomic data for momentum.
  • Cautious Optimism: While stocks haven’t rallied hard, they’re not dropping either. Traders seem to be waiting for a new catalyst, like U.S. consumer strength or signs of a bull phase in certain indexes.
  • Geopolitical Undercurrents: A new deadline for Russia to reach a peace deal and threats of ‘secondary tariffs’ could still stir volatility, depending on how global partners react.

So, in short tariffs aren’t gone, but they’ve become background noise. Investors are tuning in to the next big signals.

If you’re keeping an eye on retail, tech earnings, or commodity flows, this shift could have ripple effects worth dissecting.

Market moving events, other than tariffs

DateEvent/CatalystMarket Impact Potential
July 30Meta earnings + possible stock split📈 High (tech sentiment)
July 31Fed meeting📈📉 High (rate guidance)
Aug 1U.S.–EU tariff milestone, not flashpoint📉 Moderate (sector recalibration)
July 22U.S. AI Action Plan (released)📈 Unclear (dependent on execution

A hidden UK GEM?

A UK GEM

RELX plc stands today as one of the UK’s most quietly formidable global enterprises, a testament to strategic reinvention and technological foresight.

Originally formed in 1993 from the merger of Reed International and Dutch giant Elsevier NV, RELX evolved from a conventional publishing conglomerate into a data-driven, analytics-centric powerhouse.

Reed owned IPC Magazines and published UK comics from 1950’s through to the 1980’s.

The company’s history lies in print—academic journals, legal texts, and trade publications—but its future is unequivocally digital.

Today, RELX operates across four primary segments: Risk, Legal, Scientific & Medical, and Exhibitions. Through subsidiaries such as LexisNexis and Elsevier, it delivers critical decision-support tools to professionals in law, healthcare, insurance, and research.

Notably, more than 80% of its revenue is now derived from digital and data-based services, reflecting both market demand and RELX’s methodical transition away from legacy publishing models.

Its financials underscore this shift. In 2024, RELX reported revenues of *£9.43 billion and net income of *£1.93 billion, with strong margins driven by scalable analytics platforms.

The company currently ranks as the seventh-largest member of the FTSE 100 and reportedly boasts operations in over *180 countries.

RELX YTD chart (GBP)

RELX YTD chart (GBP)

AI impact

The incorporation of artificial intelligence (AI) has been pivotal. From intelligent legal drafting in Lexis+ AI to conversational medical search via Elsevier’s ClinicalKey AI, RELX deploys AI not just as a productivity tool but as a cornerstone of value creation.

Its proprietary data reserves — legal databases, scientific journals, and risk profiles — offer an unmatched training ground for high-integrity, professional-grade AI models.

However, success in AI comes with responsibility. RELX maintains rigorous governance frameworks to ensure responsible usage, mitigate bias, and comply with evolving privacy laws.

The company faces ongoing scrutiny in high-stakes domains like law and healthcare, but its approach to retrieval-augmented generation and citation-based validation reflects a commitment to safety and transparency.

Looking ahead, RELX is well-positioned to lead the next wave of enterprise AI adoption. As regulatory frameworks tighten and clients demand greater interpretability, RELX’s blend of curated data, ethical oversight, and domain-specific AI could prove a defining advantage.

With planned buybacks of *£1.5 billion and continuing acquisitions in analytics, the company appears both financially robust and strategically attuned to future demands.

SegmentAI ImpactNotes
Legal (LexisNexis)✅ TransformativeLexis+ AI enables intelligent drafting, summarisation, and conversational legal search—boosting lawyer productivity and accuracy.
Risk & Analytics✅ Enhanced PrecisionAI tools help insurers and banks detect fraud, assess risk, and comply with regulations more efficiently.
Scientific & Medical (Elsevier)✅ Smarter ResearchScopus AI and ClinicalKey AI offer summarised insights and conversational search for researchers and clinicians.
Exhibitions (RX)⚖️ Mixed but improvingAI helps with attendee targeting and logistics, but this segment is less data-driven and more event-dependent. Still, it’s recovering post-pandemic.

Summary

🧠 What RELX Does

RELX provides information-based analytics and decision tools across four major segments:

  • Risk: LexisNexis Risk Solutions helps insurers, banks, and governments assess fraud, identity, and compliance risks.
  • Scientific, Technical & Medical (STM): Elsevier delivers research platforms like ScienceDirect and Scopus, serving academics and healthcare professionals.
  • Legal: LexisNexis Legal & Professional offers legal research, analytics, and workflow tools.
  • Exhibitions: RX Global runs major trade shows like New York Comic Con and the London Book Fair.

📈 Financial Highlights

  • 2024 Revenue: £9.43 billion, up 3% year-on-year*
  • Net Income: £1.93 billion*
  • EBITDA Margin: ~39.5%—a sign of strong operational efficiency*
  • Digital Dominance: Over 80% of revenue now comes from electronic and data-driven product*

🧬 AI & Innovation

RELX has leaned heavily into AI-powered analytics, especially in legal and risk segments. JPMorgan recently upgraded its legal growth forecast to 10% annually, citing the transformative potential of Agentic AI and tools like Protégé.

🏛️ Market Position

  • FTSE 100 Rank: 7th largest company by market cap
  • Global Reach: Serves clients in 180+ countries*
  • Stock Performance: Up ~120% over five years*

🧩 Strategic Moves

  • Buybacks: £1.5 billion planned for 2025, with £150 million already completed*
  • Recent Acquisitions: Two in H1 2025 totaling £61 million, focused on expanding analytics capabilities*.

In summary, RELX exemplifies the art of reinvention—rooted in publishing heritage, powered by digital innovation, and poised to shape the ethical evolution of AI across critical professional fields.

*Unverified

Wall Street surges: S&P 500 breaks 6300 as tech optimism outpaces tariff tensions

Record highs!

The S&P 500 closed above 6,300 for the first time in history on Monday 21st July 2025, while the Nasdaq Composite notched yet another record, finishing at 20,974.17.

Investor enthusiasm for upcoming tech earnings has eclipsed broader concerns over looming global tariffs, fuelling a rally in major indexes.

Despite marginal losses in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 0.38% while the S&P 500 climbed 0.14%, buoyed by gains in heavyweights like Meta Platforms, Alphabet, and Amazon.

With over 60 S&P 500 companies having reported so far this earnings season, more than 85% have exceeded expectations, according to FactSet.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp at new record highs 21st July 2025

redo the charts side by side and correct the S&P 500 value
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp at new record highs 21st July 2025

Alphabet shares advanced over 2% ahead of Wednesday’s results, and Tesla headlines the ‘Magnificent Seven’ group expected to drive the bulk of earnings growth this quarter. And not necessarily for the right reason.

Analysts reportedly expect the group to deliver 14% growth year-on-year, far outpacing the remaining S&P constituents’ average of 3.4%.

S&P 500

Despite tariff tensions simmering — with the U.S. setting a 1st August deadline for levy enforcement — investor sentiment remains bullish.

Bank of America estimates Q2 earnings are tracking a 5% annual increase, suggesting resilience amid geopolitical headwinds.

Strategists warn of potential volatility, as earnings surprises or policy shifts could spark swift market reactions.

Still, some analysts see space for further upside, projecting a potential S&P climb to 6,600 before any meaningful pullback.

As the tech titans prepare to report, all eyes are on whether optimism can keep the rally alive — or if tariffs will return to centre stage.

From FANG stocks, MAG 7 stocks to AI – the tech titans just keep giving.

But when will it overload?

Trump’s self-imposed August tariff deadline looms

U.S. Tariffs

Since a little after Donald Trump’s declaration of ‘Liberation Day’ and renewed tariff threats, global markets have shown a remarkable degree of indifference.

While equities dipped briefly in April, investors appear increasingly unshaken by the looming 1st August deadline.

Several factors underpin this resilience. First, market participants have grown accustomed to political brinkmanship.

Traders now view tariff announcements as bargaining tools rather than certainties, adopting a wait-and-see approach before pricing in long-term consequences.

The episodic nature of past trade spats has dulled their impact, especially without immediate legislative backing and with Trump often pulling back last minute or extending deadlines.

The media have labelled this … TACO!

TACOTrump Always Chickens Out: Definition – A satirical acronym coined by financial commentators to describe Donald Trump’s predictable pattern of announcing aggressive tariffs, then softening or delaying them under market pressure.

Second, economic fundamentals remain firm. Corporate earnings continue to surpass expectations, and key indicators—such as job growth and consumer spending—suggest sustained momentum in major economies.

As a result, the tariff narrative has taken a back seat to earnings reports and central bank manoeuvres.

Third, diversification strategies have matured since the 2018–2020 trade wars. Many multinationals have already restructured supply chains, buffered risk through regional trade agreements, and hedged exposure to volatile sectors.

This strategic evolution makes markets less sensitive to unilateral tariff threats, especially if they lack multilateral support.

Analysts note that Trump’s rhetoric still carries weight politically, but the financial world operates on evidence, not headlines. As one strategist quipped, ‘Markets don’t trade on bluster; they trade on impact’.

That’s all very well – but markets can be fickle and reflect sentiment too.

With investors focused on earnings and monetary policy, tariff drama may remain background noise—unless policy becomes policy.

Until then, the markets seem content to roll with it!

S&P 500 hits record high amid AI tech frenzy!

S&P 500 at new all-time high!

The S&P 500 soared to a new all-time closing high of 6297 on Thursday 17th July 2025, lifted by strong earnings from AI chipmakers and upbeat economic data.

Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon led the charge, as enthusiasm around artificial intelligence and cloud infrastructure continued to fuel investor appetite.

The rally was supported by June 2025 retail sales, which exceeded expectations, and growing speculation that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in September 2025.

The index rose around 0.54% on the day, marking its fifth straight gain and pushing its year-to-date return above 13%.

S&P 500 one-year chart

S&P 500 one-year chart

Meanwhile, the VIX volatility index is around 17 slightly elevated but still well below its long-term average.

This suggests a modest uptick in hedging activity, though overall market sentiment remains confident.

VIX YTD chart

VIX YTD chart

With inflation cooling and tech earnings impressing, the S&P’s breakout sets the stage for a potentially exuberant summer — though analysts caution that valuations are stretched and a pullback could emerge if momentum fades.

A pullback first is likely.

Bitcoin surges to record high as investors pause for breath to take profits

Bitcoin hits new high!

Bitcoin hit a new milestone on 14th July 2025, reaching an unprecedented $123,091.61.

This marks the digital currency’s highest level to date, building on months of momentum driven by institutional buying, regulatory optimism, and a flood of capital from exchange-traded funds.

The rally comes amid growing confidence in cryptocurrencies as lawmakers in Washington debate the GENIUS Act, a pivotal piece of legislation that could cement Bitcoin’s role in mainstream finance. Market sentiment has been overwhelmingly bullish, with analysts citing a ‘flight to digital safety’ as global uncertainties mount.

However, since the peak, Bitcoin’s ascent has shown signs of levelling off. Profit-taking among investors appears to have introduced temporary friction, prompting a modest dip in trading volumes.

Several large wallets moved substantial holdings to exchanges, hinting at short-term sell-offs. Yet the decline has been measured, and there’s little indication of widespread panic.

Some traders interpret this plateau not as weakness, but consolidation.

With volatility baked into its DNA, Bitcoin continues to command attention from both seasoned investors and curious newcomers.

Whether it resumes its march toward $125,000 or cools off remains to be seen—but for now, the market is watching, waiting, and calculating its next move.

Five-day Bitcoin ascent

DateOpening PriceClosing PriceDaily HighDaily Low
11 July$115,909.08$117,579.19$117,901.00$115,909.08
12 July$117,579.19$117,460.30$118,672.53$117,460.30
13 July$117,460.30$118,908.51$118,908.51$117,460.30
14 July$118,908.51$122,584.00$123,091.61$118,908.51
15 July$122,584.00$121,902.00$122,493.00$121,902.00
Five-day Bitcoin ascent

Markets appear to dismiss Trump’s tariff threats – but will this prove to be unwise?

Super Chicken

Despite President Donald Trump’s renewed push for sweeping tariffs, global markets appear unfazed.

Trump issued letters to 14 countries – including Japan, South Korea, and Malaysia—outlining new import levies ranging from 25% to 40%, set to take effect on 1st August 2025. More letters then followed.

Yet, major indices like the FTSE 100 and Nikkei 225 barely flinched, with some even posting modest gains.

So, who’s right—the president or the markets?

Trump insists tariffs are essential to redress trade imbalances and bring manufacturing back to the U.S. The EU also faces higher tariffs.

He’s floated extreme measures, including a 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals and a 50% levy on copper.

His administration argues these moves will strengthen domestic industry and reduce reliance on foreign supply chains.

However, investors seem to be betting on a familiar pattern: Trump talks tough but ultimately softens under pressure. Analysts have dubbed this the ‘TACO’ trade—Trump Always Chickens Out.

His own comments have added to the ambiguity, calling the August deadline ‘firm, but not 100% firm’.

The economic logic behind the tariffs is being questioned. Tariffs are paid by importers—often U.S. businesses and consumers—not foreign governments.

This could lead to higher prices and inflation, especially in sectors like healthcare and electronics. Some economists warn of recessionary risks for countries like Japan and South Korea.

In short, markets may be right to remain calm—for now. But if Trump follows through, the impact could be far-reaching.

With trade negotiations still in flux and only two deals (UK and Vietnam) finalised, the next few weeks will be critical. Investors may be wise not to ignore the warning signs entirely.

Whether this is brinkmanship or a genuine shift in trade policy, the stakes are high—and the clock is ticking.

NVIDIA Hits $4 trillion market cap as AI dominance drives market surge

AI ?

In a historic moment for global markets, NVIDIA has become the first publicly traded company to reach a staggering $4 trillion market capitalisation, underscoring its pivotal role in the artificial intelligence revolution.

The chipmaker’s shares climbed to an all-time high of $164 this week, fuelled by relentless investor enthusiasm for AI technologies.

Originally known for its graphics processing units (GPUs) tailored to gaming, NVIDIA has transformed into the backbone of the AI boom.

Its high-performance chips now power everything from large language models to autonomous systems, making it indispensable to tech giants like Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet.

Since the debut of ChatGPT in late 2022, NVIDIA’s stock has surged nearly 900%, outpacing both the broader market and its semiconductor peers.

The company’s meteoric rise is backed by explosive financials. In the first quarter of 2025 alone, NVIDIA reported $44.1 billion in revenue, with its data centre division contributing over 88% of that figure.

Analysts attribute this growth to the insatiable demand for AI infrastructure, with firms investing tens of billions in data centres and cloud computing.

Despite geopolitical headwinds, including export restrictions to China and tariff uncertainties, NVIDIA has demonstrated remarkable resilience.

Its valuation now exceeds the combined worth of the Canadian and Mexican stock markets and is just shy of India’s GDP. It is also larger than the UK’s GDP. Is this valuation sustainable?

As AI continues to reshape industries, from healthcare to finance, NVIDIA stands at the forefront, not just as a chipmaker, but as a symbol of technological ascendancy. Whether this dominance is sustainable remains to be seen, but for now, Wall Street has crowned its new titan.

And with AI showing no signs of slowing, NVIDIA’s ascent may be just the beginning of a new era in market leadership.

But what really is NVIDIA’s true value – is it overpriced?

Many analysts argue that NVIDIA is currently overvalued, at least by traditional metrics. For example, AlphaSpread estimates its intrinsic value at around $112.25, while its market price hovers near $158, suggesting it’s overvalued by roughly 29%.

Nvidia one-year share price chart at new high as of 9th July 2025

Nvidia one-year share price chart at new high as of 9th July 2025

Similarly, a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis from TheStreet indicates the stock may be worth 8% less than its current price.

But here’s the twist: NVIDIA isn’t just any stock. It’s the dominant force in AI hardware, with over 80% market share in data centre accelerators.

That kind of monopoly in a rapidly expanding sector makes traditional valuation models look a bit… well, quaint.

Some investors argue that its growth trajectory and pricing power justify the premium, especially with AI demand scaling across industries.

Still, others caution that the hype may be outpacing fundamentals. To justify its current valuation, NVIDIA would need to generate over $1.2 trillion in cash flow over the next 20 years—an ambitious target even for a tech titan.

So is it overpriced?

If you’re a value investor, probably yes. If you’re betting on AI transforming the world and NVIDIA staying at the centre of it, maybe not.

When will the companies investing in AI see the returns on their investment?

And NVIDIA isn’t the only AI show in town.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 hit new all-time high!

New All-time highs!

The U.S. stock market surged into July 2025 with a wave of optimism, as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both hit fresh all-time highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average continued its upward climb.

The S&P 500 closed at 6279, marking its fourth record close in five sessions, and the Nasdaq 100 soared to 22867, fueled by strength in AI and semiconductor stocks.

S&P 500 YTD chart

Nasdaq 100 YTD chart

Driving the rally was a stronger-than-expected June 2025 jobs report, which revealed 147,000 new positions added and an unemployment rate dipping to 4.1%.

This labour market resilience tempered expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut, but bolstered investor confidence in the economy’s momentum.

Tech giants like Nvidia and Microsoft led the charge, with Nvidia nearing a $4 trillion market cap amid surging demand for AI infrastructure.

Datadog spiked after being added to the S&P 500, and financials like JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs hit lifetime highs.

The Dow, while slightly trailing its tech-heavy peers, posted steady gains and now hovers near its own record territory.

With trade optimism rising and President Trump’s tax-and-spending bill passed, Wall Street enters the holiday weekend riding a wave of bullish sentiment.

Tesla’s 14% decline in vehicle deliveries reported

14% EV sales decline

Tesla reported just 384,122 vehicle deliveries in Q2 2025 – a noticeable 14% slide year-on-year, and its steepest decline on record.

While some anticipated turbulence, the results managed to slightly exceed analyst expectations, prompting a surprising 5% climb in the stock.

Tesla YTD chart

Tesla YTD chart (July 2025)

So, what’s driving this cooldown in momentum?

🇨🇳 China’s EV powerhouses: BYD alone reportedly registered over 1 million battery-electric sales, outpacing Tesla with fresher and more affordable options.

Delayed evolution: The promised $25K ‘Model Q’ has yet to appear, leaving Tesla’s aging lineup vulnerable.

⚖️ Demand vs. production imbalance: Tesla built 410,244 cars – more than it sold – indicating inventory build-up.

🗺️ Regional whiplash: European and Chinese demand wavered, though China showed signs of late-quarter recovery.

🧨 CEO controversies: Elon Musk’s high-profile political entanglements, including his stint with the DOGE department and ties to Trump – stirred public backlash and dented brand sentiment.

Still, Wall Street is keeping one eye on Tesla’s future bets: autonomous driving and robotaxis.

Despite the rough quarter, some analysts argue that the dip could mark a cyclical bottom before a strategic pivot.

RSI signals flash: U.S. stocks enter overbought territory

U.S. Companies RSI

As U.S. equity markets continue their relentless climb, a growing number of stocks are flashing warning signs through one of the most widely followed technical indicators: the Relative Strength Index (RSI).

Designed to measure momentum, RSI values above 70 typically indicate that a stock is overbought and may be due for a pullback.

As of early July 2025, several high-profile U.S. companies have RSI readings well above this threshold, suggesting that investor enthusiasm may be outpacing fundamentals.

🔍 What Is RSI?

The RSI is a momentum oscillator that ranges from 0 to 100. Readings above 70 suggest a stock is overbought, while readings below 30 indicate it may be oversold. While not a crystal ball, RSI is a useful tool for identifying potential reversals or pauses in price trends.

🚨 Top 5 Overbought U.S. Stocks (as of 1st July 2025)

CompanyTickerRSIYTD Performance
NvidiaNVDA84.3+92.5%
Super Micro ComputerSMCI82.7+108.4%
Advanced Micro DevicesAMD80.1+74.2%
Alnylam PharmaceuticalsALNY78.9+66.0%
Circle Internet GroupCIRC77.5+62.9%

These companies have benefited from the ongoing AI and biotech booms, with Nvidia and AMD riding the wave of demand for next-gen chips, while Alnylam and Circle Internet Group have surged on strong earnings and innovation in their respective sectors.

📊 RSI Snapshot: Top 10 U.S. Stocks by RSI

RankCompanyTickerRSISector
1NvidiaNVDA84.3Semiconductors
2Super Micro ComputerSMCI82.7Hardware
3AMDAMD80.1Semiconductors
4Alnylam PharmaceuticalsALNY78.9Biotech
5Circle Internet GroupCIRC77.5Internet Services
6Mereo BioPharma GroupMPH76.4Biotech
7AVITA MedicalAVH75.2Healthcare
8MicrosoftMSFT74.8Software
9Lumentum HoldingsLITE73.6Optical Tech
10WorkivaWK72.9Cloud Software

📌 What This Means for Investors

While high RSI doesn’t guarantee a drop, it does suggest caution. Stocks like Nvidia and Super Micro may continue to rise in the short term, but their elevated RSI levels imply that momentum could stall or reverse if sentiment shifts or earnings disappoint.

Investors should consider pairing RSI with other indicators – such as MACD, volume trends, and earnings outlooks – before making decisions.

For long-term holders, these signals may simply be noise. But for traders, they’re a flashing yellow light.

See: WallStreetNumbers: Advanced Stock Screener & Interactive Charts

U.S. markets surge as S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new highs

New highs U.S. markets

In a remarkable show of investor confidence, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both reached new all-time highs on 30th June 2025.

The markets were buoyed by optimism around easing inflation, resilient corporate earnings, and renewed enthusiasm for the tech sector, especially AI.

The S&P 500 climbed to a record close of 6205, while the Nasdaq soared 1.2% to finish at 22679 marking its fourth consecutive record-breaking session.

S&P 3-month chart

S&P 3 month chart

Traders pointed to stronger-than-expected economic data and dovish commentary from the Federal Reserve as catalysts that reignited appetite for risk.

Tech giants led the charge, with chipmakers and AI-related firms once again at the forefront.

Nvidia, now the world’s most valuable publicly traded company, gained over 2%, while Apple, Microsoft, and Alphabet also notched solid gains.

The technology-heavy Nasdaq has been particularly responsive to momentum in artificial intelligence and next-generation computing, driving its meteoric rise in recent months.

Nasdaq 100 3-month chart

Nasdaq 100 3-month chart

From April 2025 Trump tariff melt-down to new highs in June 2025

Beyond tech, sectors such as consumer discretionary and industrials also saw modest gains, suggesting a broadening of the rally.

Analysts now debate whether this marks the beginning of a sustainable expansion or a potential overheating of equities.

Meanwhile, Treasury yields held steady, and oil prices ticked higher, signalling confidence in continued global demand.

With earnings season on the horizon, market watchers are closely monitoring corporate guidance to gauge whether valuations can justify further upside.

For now, though, the bulls are clearly in control – and Wall Street is basking in green.

Nvidia regains top spot by market cap

Nvidia top value company again

Nvidia has once again claimed the title of the world’s most valuable publicly traded company, overtaking Microsoft with a staggering market capitalisation of $3.76 trillion.

This milestone follows a 4% surge in Nvidia’s share price, closing at an all-time high of $154.10.

The rally was fuelled by renewed investor enthusiasm for artificial intelligence. Analysts citing it as a ‘Golden Wave’ of generative AI adoption driving demand for Nvidia’s high-performance chips.

The company’s meteoric rise has been underpinned by its dominance in AI hardware, particularly its GPUs, which power everything from ChatGPT to enterprise-scale AI models.

Since bottoming out in early April 2025, Nvidia’s stock has soared more than 60%, far outpacing the broader tech market.

Founded in 1993 to produce graphics chips for gaming, Nvidia has transformed into the backbone of the AI revolution. Its accelerators are now essential infrastructure for companies like Microsoft, Meta, and Google.

Nvidia share price as of 25th June 2025 – a 3 month snapshot

Nvidia share price as of 25th June 2025 – a 3 month snapshot

Despite its rapid ascent, Nvidia’s valuation remains relatively modest compared to historical norms, trading at around 30 times projected earnings.

As the AI arms race intensifies, Nvidia’s position at the summit of global markets underscores the growing importance of its power in shaping the digital future.

China’s restriction of rare earth materials hurts

Chinas rare earth material dominance

China’s recent export restrictions on rare earth elements are sending shockwaves through multiple industries worldwide.

As the curbs continue to take effect, sectors reliant on these critical minerals—including automotive, defence, and clean energy—are beginning to feel the strain.

China controls about 60–70% of global rare earth production and nearly 90% of the refining capacity.

Even when rare earths are mined elsewhere, they’re often sent to China for processing, since few countries have the infrastructure or environmental tolerance to handle the complex and polluting refining process.

In April 2025, China introduced export controls on seven key rare earth elements and permanent magnets, citing national interests and responding to rising trade tensions—particularly with the U.S.

Automotive industry in crisis

The auto sector is among the hardest hit. Rare earth elements are essential for both combustion engines and electric vehicles, particularly in the production of magnets used in motors and batteries.

European auto suppliers have already reported production shutdowns due to dwindling inventories.

Germany’s car industry, a global powerhouse, has reportedly warned that further disruptions could bring manufacturing to a standstill.

Japan’s Nissan and Suzuki have also expressed concerns, with Suzuki reportedly halting production of its Swift model due to shortages.

Defence and technology sectors at risk

China’s dominance in rare earth refining, controlling nearly 90% of global capacity, poses a strategic challenge for defense industries.

The U.S. military relies heavily on these materials for missile guidance systems, radar technology, and advanced electronics.

With nearly 78% of defence platforms dependent on Chinese-processed rare earths, the restrictions expose vulnerabilities in national security.

Clean energy ambitions under threat

The clean energy transition depends on rare earths for wind turbines, solar panels, and electric vehicle batteries.

China’s curbs threaten global efforts to reduce carbon emissions, forcing countries to scramble for alternative sources. India’s electric vehicle sector, for instance, faces potential setbacks as manufacturers struggle to secure supplies.

As industries grapple with these disruptions, governments and corporations are urgently seeking solutions. Whether through diplomatic negotiations or investment in domestic rare earth production, the race is on to mitigate the fallout from China’s tightening grip on these critical resources.

Several countries have significant rare earth reserves and can supply these materials in high quantities.

Top rare earth materials suppliers

China – The dominant player, with 44 million metric tons of reserves.

Brazil – Holds 21 million metric tons of rare earth reserves.

Vietnam – Has 22 million metric tons, making it a rising supplier.

India – Contains 6.9 million metric tons.

Australia – A key producer with 5.7 million metric tons.

Russia – Holds 10 million metric tons.

United States – While not a leading producer, it has 1.8 million metric tons.

Greenland – An emerging supplier with 1.5 million metric tons.

China remains the largest supplier, but countries like Brazil, Vietnam, and Australia are working to expand their production to reduce reliance on Chinese exports.

Ukraine?

Ukraine reportedly has significant reserves of rare earth elements, including titanium, lithium, graphite, and uranium. These minerals are crucial for industries such as defence, aerospace, and green energy.

However, the ongoing conflict with Russia has disrupted access to many of these deposits, with some now under Russian control.

Despite these challenges, Ukraine is being considered for strategic raw material projects by the European Union, aiming to strengthen supply chains and reduce reliance on China. The country’s mineral wealth could play a key role in post-war recovery and global supply diversification

Greenland?

Greenland is emerging as a key player in the global rare earth supply chain. The European Union has recently selected Greenland for new raw material projects aimed at securing critical minerals.

The island holds significant deposits of rare earth elements, including graphite, which is essential for battery production.

However, Greenland faces challenges in developing its rare earth industry, including harsh terrain, environmental concerns, and geopolitical tensions.

The U.S. and EU are keen to reduce reliance on China, which dominates rare earth processing, and Greenland’s resources could play a crucial role in this effort.

Greenland has indicated it has little desire to be transformed into a mining territory. It could have little choice.

Canada?

Canada is emerging as a significant player in the rare earth supply chain. The country has over 15.2 million tonnes of rare earth oxide reserves, making it one of the largest known sources globally.

Recently, Canada opened its first commercial rare earth elements refinery, marking a major step toward reducing reliance on Chinese processing.

The facility, located in Saskatchewan, aims to produce 400 tonnes of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) metals per year, enough for 500,000 electric vehicles annually.

Additionally, Canada is investing in critical minerals infrastructure to unlock rare earth development in Northern Quebec and Labrador.

The government has allocated $10 million to support mining projects, including the Strange Lake Rare Earth Project, which contains globally significant quantities of dysprosium, neodymium, praseodymium, and terbium.

Rare earth materials are a necessity for our modern technological lives – big tech tells us this. The hunger for these products needs to be fed, and China, right now, does the feeding.

And the beast needs to be fed.

From Missiles to Tariffs: A desensitised stock market faces Trump’s new world

Markets desensitised to U.S. policy making

In years past, the mere hint of U.S. airstrikes or heightened geopolitical tension would send global stock markets into panic mode.

Yet, following President Trump’s re-election and his increasingly aggressive foreign policy stance, investor reactions have become notably muted.

From missile strikes on Iranian nuclear sites to an orchestrated ceasefire between Iran and Israel, markets have barely flinched. The question arises: are investors becoming desensitised to Trump’s geopolitical theatre?

Take the latest skirmish between Iran and Israel. After nearly two weeks of missile exchanges, Trump’s announcement of a ‘complete and total ceasefire’ barely nudged the S&P 500.

That calm came despite the U.S. launching pre-emptive strikes on Iranian facilities and absorbing retaliatory attacks on its military base in Qatar.

In another era, or under a different administration even, such developments might have triggered a broad risk-off sentiment. Instead, Wall Street just shrugged.

One reason may be fatigue. Trump’s approach – rife with tariffs, sanctions, and sudden reversals – has bred a kind of market immunity.

Investors, well-versed in the rhythm of Trump’s provocations, have begun treating them as background noise. His revived tariff agenda, particularly the threats aimed once again at China and EU auto imports, has likewise failed to prompt major selloffs.

Similarly, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, once a source of intense volatility, now registers as a strategic stalemate in the market’s eyes.

While Trump’s rhetoric surrounding Ukraine has shifted unpredictably, investors appear more focused on earnings, inflation data, and central bank signals than on diplomatic fallout and war!

This is not to suggest markets are indifferent to geopolitical risk, but rather that they’ve adapted. Algorithmic trading models may be increasingly geared to discount Trump’s headline-grabbing tactics, while institutional investors hedge through gold, volatility indices, or energy plays without dumping equities outright.

Critics argue this detachment is dangerous. Should a flashpoint spiral out of control, be it over Hormuz, Ukraine, or Taiwan, the slow-boiling complacency could leave portfolios badly exposed.

Still, for now, Trump’s policies are being priced in not with panic, but with complacency maybe.

The real story may not be what Trump does next, but how long the markets can continue to look away.

Trump announces he had brokered ceasefire between Israel and Iran?

Tensions between Israel and Iran reached a boiling point after 12 days of cross-border missile and drone strikes.

The situation escalated further when U.S. forces under President Trump launched targeted airstrikes on key Iranian nuclear sites, Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, prompting a direct Iranian missile response on a U.S. base in Qatar.

In a dramatic turn, President Trump announced what he called a ‘Complete and Total CEASEFIRE‘ – announced on Truth Social. According to Trump’s plan, Iran would begin the ceasefire immediately, with Israel to follow 12 hours later.

The truce would reportedly be considered complete after 24 hours if all attacks stopped.

While Trump touted the ceasefire as a triumph of ‘peace through strength’, analysts questioned the ceasefire’s enforceability – especially since missile exchanges reportedly continued despite the announcement.

Nonetheless, Trump claimed credit for halting the region’s slide into all-out war without committing to prolonged U.S. military involvement.

Critics argue Trump’s strategy relies more on military pressure and media theatrics than diplomatic engagement.

Supporters counter that his boldness forced both sides to the table. Either way, the world is watching to see whether this fragile peace endures – or erupts again in fire.

If this turns out to be a masterstroke in political brinkmanship – hats off to Trump, I guess. Whichever way you look at it, the precision U.S. strike on Iran was exactly that – precision. And, you have to take note.

Iran has been weakened, and this may even influence Russia’s war on Ukraine. Hopefully Israel with Palestine too – regardless of stock market reaction.

And that has to be a good thing!

But has Israel finished their war?

Despite all the noise regarding stock market reaction, one thing is for certain – the anxiety and worry for the people of the Middle East is unquestionable.

It’s not a happy time.

AMD Unveils Instinct MI400: is it time for AMD to challenge NVIDIA dominance?

AMD & NVIDIA chip go head-to-head

AMD has officially lifted the curtain on its next-generation AI chip, the Instinct MI400, marking a significant escalation in the battle for data centre dominance.

Set to launch in 2026, the MI400 is designed to power hyperscale AI workloads with unprecedented efficiency and performance.

Sam Altman and OpenAI have played a surprisingly hands-on role in AMD’s development of the Instinct MI400 series.

Altman appeared on stage with AMD CEO Lisa Su at the company’s ‘Advancing AI’ event, where he revealed that OpenAI had provided direct feedback during the chip’s design process.

Altman described his initial reaction to the MI400 specs as ‘totally crazy’ but expressed excitement at how close AMD has come to delivering on its ambitious goals.

He praised the MI400’s architecture – particularly its memory design – as being well-suited for both inference and training tasks.

OpenAI has already been using AMD’s MI300X chips for some workloads and is expected to adopt the MI400 series when it launches in 2026.

This collaboration is part of a broader trend: OpenAI, traditionally reliant on Nvidia GPUs via Microsoft Azure, is now diversifying its compute stack.

AMD’s open standards and cost-effective performance are clearly appealing, especially as OpenAI also explores its own chip development efforts with Broadcom.

AMD’s one-year chart snap-shot

One-year AMD chart snap-shot

So, while OpenAI isn’t ditching Nvidia entirely, its involvement with AMD signals a strategic shift—and a vote of confidence in AMD’s growing role in the AI hardware ecosystem.

At the heart of AMD’s strategy is the Helios rack-scale system, a unified architecture that allows thousands of MI400 chips to function as a single, massive compute engine.

This approach is tailored for the growing demands of large language models and generative AI, where inference speed and energy efficiency are paramount.

AMD technical power

The MI400 boasts a staggering 432GB of next-generation HBM4 memory and a bandwidth of 19.6TB/sec—more than double that of its predecessor.

With up to four Accelerated Compute Dies (XCDs) and enhanced interconnects, the chip delivers 40 PFLOPs of FP4 performance, positioning it as a formidable rival to Nvidia’s Rubin R100 GPU.

AMD’s open-source networking technology, UALink, replaces Nvidia’s proprietary NVLink, reinforcing the company’s commitment to open standards. This, combined with aggressive pricing and lower power consumption, gives AMD a compelling value proposition.

The company claims its chips can deliver 40% more AI tokens per dollar than Nvidia’s offerings.

Big tech follows AMD

OpenAI, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle are among the major players already integrating AMD’s Instinct chips into their infrastructure. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, speaking at the launch event reportedly praised the MI400’s capabilities, calling it ‘an amazing thing‘.

With the AI chip market projected to exceed $500 billion by 2028, AMD’s MI400 is more than just a product—it’s a statement of intent. As the race for AI supremacy intensifies, AMD is betting big on performance, openness, and affordability to carve out a larger share of the future.

It certainly looks like AMD is positioning the Instinct MI400 as a serious contender in the AI accelerator space – and Nvidia will be watching closely.

The MI400 doesn’t just aim to catch up; it’s designed to challenge Nvidia head-on with bold architectural shifts and aggressive performance-per-dollar metrics.

Nvidia has long held the upper hand with its CUDA software ecosystem and dominant market share, especially with the popularity of its H100 and the upcoming Rubin GPU. But AMD is playing the long game.

Nvidia 0ne-year chart snapshot

Nvidia 0ne-year chart snapshot

By offering open standards like UALink and boasting impressive specs like 432GB of HBM4 memory and 40 PFLOPs of FP4 performance, the MI400 is pushing into territory that was once Nvidia’s alone.

Whether it truly rivals Nvidia will depend on a few key factors: industry adoption, software compatibility, real-world performance under AI workloads, and AMD’s ability to scale production and support.

But with major players like OpenAI, Microsoft, and Meta already lining up to adopt the MI400.

Is now a good time to invest in AMD?

Asia’s shift away from the U.S. Dollar gains momentum

De-dollar

The global financial landscape is undergoing a significant transformation as Asian economies accelerate their move away from the U.S. dollar.

This trend, known as de-dollarisation, is driven by a combination of geopolitical uncertainties, monetary policy shifts, and efforts to reduce reliance on the greenback in trade and investment.

The forces behind de-dollarisation

For decades, the U.S. dollar has dominated global trade and foreign exchange reserves. However, its share in global reserves has steadily declined from over 70% in 2000 to 57.8% in 2024.

This shift is particularly pronounced in Asia, where nations are actively promoting the use of local currencies to mitigate exchange rate risks and strengthen regional financial stability.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has committed to increasing local currency settlements in trade and investment as part of its Economic Community Strategic Plan for 2026-2030.

Additionally, major economies like China and India are developing alternative payment systems to bypass traditional dollar-based transactions, further reducing dependency on the greenback.

Implications for the U.S. Dollar

The dollar has faced increased volatility, with a sharp 8% decline in the dollar index since the start of 2025. Investors and policymakers are recognising that the dollar can be leveraged in trade negotiations, prompting a reassessment of portfolios overweight in U.S. assets.

While the dollar remains the world’s primary reserve currency, its dominance is being challenged. Asian economies, particularly Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, and China, hold substantial foreign assets, giving them the ability to repatriate earnings into local currencies.

The shift away from the dollar is a slow but steady process, signalling a broader transition towards a multipolar financial system.

Crypto and DeFi are playing a growing role in de-dollarisation.

Many nations, particularly within BRICS, are turning to digital assets to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar in global trade.

How crypto supports de-dollarisation

Alternative Payment Systems – Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum allow countries under U.S. sanctions to bypass traditional dollar-based financial systems.

Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) – Over 130 countries are exploring CBDCs to strengthen local currency transactions and reduce dependence on the dollar.

Stablecoins & Cross-Border Trade – Stablecoins such as USDT and USDC facilitate international payments, with daily transaction volumes exceeding $150 billion.

The bigger picture

The shift away from the dollar is not just about crypto – it’s part of a broader movement toward a multipolar financial system.

While digital assets provide alternatives, traditional financial institutions are also adapting by promoting local currency settlements

AI creates paradigm shift in computing – programming AI is like training a person

Teaching or programing?

At London Tech Week, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang made a striking statement: “The way you program an AI is like the way you program a person.” (Do we really program people or do we teach)?

This marks a fundamental shift in how we interact with artificial intelligence, moving away from traditional coding languages and towards natural human communication.

Historically, programming required specialised knowledge of languages like C++ or Python. Developers had to meticulously craft instructions for computers to follow.

Huang argues that AI has now evolved to understand and respond to human language, making programming more intuitive and accessible.

This transformation is largely driven by advancements in conversational AI models, such as ChatGPT, Gemini, and Copilot.

These systems allow users to issue commands in plain English – whether asking an AI to generate images, write a poem, or even create software code. Instead of writing complex algorithms, users can simply ask nicely, much like instructing a colleague or student.

Huang’s analogy extends beyond convenience. Just as people learn through feedback and iteration, AI models refine their responses based on user input.

If an AI-generated poem isn’t quite right, users can prompt it to improve, and it will think and adjust accordingly.

This iterative process mirrors human learning, where guidance and refinement lead to better outcomes.

The implications of this shift are profound. AI is no longer just a tool for experts – it is a great equalizer, enabling anyone to harness computing power without technical expertise.

As businesses integrate AI into their workflows, employees will need to adapt, treating AI as a collaborative partner rather than a mere machine.

This evolution in AI programming is not just about efficiency; it represents a new era where technology aligns more closely with human thought and interaction.

Trump and Musk feud – love to hate in 137 days – a billionaire brawl

Trump Musk Argue

It’s a worry – arguably the most powerful man in the world and the richest man in the world in a highly visible fallout.

Unrest and distrust at the top of U.S. government and the and in the corporate world – so what’s new?

Donald Trump and Elon Musk, once allies, have engaged in a heated public feud over a tax and spending bill. The conflict began when Musk criticised Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” calling it a “disgusting abomination” and warning it would increase the budget deficit. Trump retaliated on Truth Social, calling Musk “CRAZY” and threatening to terminate billions of dollars in government contracts for his companies.

Musk fired back on X, claiming Trump would have lost the election without his support and accusing him of being named in the unreleased Epstein files.

The spat has had financial repercussions, with Tesla’s stock plummeting over 14%, wiping out $152 billion in market value. Investors fear the fallout could impact Tesla’s regulatory environment under Trump’s administration.

Tesla 5-day chart

Tesla 5-day chart – 14% fall

Political figures have weighed in, with billionaire Bill Ackman urging the two to reconcile, while Steve Bannon suggested Trump should seize SpaceX under the Defence Production Act. Musk also polled followers on whether to create a new political party, gaining support from Mark Cuban and Andrew Yang.

It got worse

Elon Musk escalated his feud with Donald Trump by making explosive claims that Trump appears in the Epstein files, suggesting that this is why they have not been made public. Musk posted on X, “Time to drop the really big bomb: Donald Trump is in the Epstein files. That is the real reason they have not been made public.

“Have a nice day, DJT!”. He later doubled down, telling followers to “mark this post for the future” and insisting that “the truth will come out”.

Trump has denied any wrongdoing and dismissed Musk’s claims as retaliation for his tax bill. The White House press secretary called Musk’s comments “an unfortunate episode” and insisted that Trump is focused on passing his legislation.

Musk also endorsed a call for Trump’s impeachment, agreeing with a post that suggested Vice President JD Vance should replace Trump. This marks a dramatic shift, as Musk was previously a close ally of Trump and even held a government advisory role.

The feud continues to escalate, with Musk calling for the bill’s rejection and Trump defending it as a historic tax cut.

The position and authority of U.S. President Trump have been challenged. How will tariff trade negotiations and his standing with other world leaders progress from here?

I do have a couple of questions: why did Musk back Trump in the first place and, at what point in the 137 ‘love in’ days did he know about the Epstein link (if indeed there is one)?

Or did he know before?

Who to trust?

Trump’s tariffs challenged in court and deemed to be illegal

U.S. tariff court ruling

A U.S. federal court has ruled that former President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs were imposed illegally, dealing a significant blow to his economic policies.

The Court of International Trade determined that Trump exceeded his authority by invoking emergency powers to justify tariffs on nearly every country.

The ruling states that the U.S. Constitution grants Congress exclusive power to regulate commerce, meaning the president cannot unilaterally impose such broad trade restrictions.

The decision immediately halted the 10% tariffs Trump had imposed on most U.S. trading partners, as well as additional levies on China, Mexico, and Canada.

The court found that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which Trump cited as justification, does not grant him the authority to implement such sweeping trade measures.

The White House swiftly filed an appeal, arguing that the tariffs were necessary to address trade imbalances and safeguard American industries.

However, businesses and state governments that challenged the tariffs welcomed the ruling, citing concerns over inflation and economic harm.

Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures 28th & 29th May 2025 after the court ruling

Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures 28th & 29th May 2025 after the court ruling

Markets responded positively to the decision, with stock futures rising and the U.S. dollar strengthening. If the ruling stands, businesses that paid the tariffs may be eligible for refunds, marking a potential shift in U.S. trade policy.

The U.S. President is expected to find a workaround after suffering a major blow to a core part of his economic agenda.

Tesla’s European market meltdown – sales plunge 49% amid brand damage and fierce competition

Tesla's European sales fall!

Tesla’s vehicle sales in Europe plummeted by 49% in April 2025, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline.

Despite an overall 27.8% rise in battery-electric vehicle sales, Tesla struggled to maintain its foothold in the region.

The drop in sales has been attributed to increasing competition from Chinese automakers, a shift in consumer preferences towards hybrid vehicles, and growing backlash against CEO Elon Musk’s political affiliations.

Tesla’s market share in Europe nearly halved, falling from 1.3% to 0.7%. The company’s aging lineup, particularly the Model Y, has failed to attract new buyers, while rivals such as BYD have overtaken Tesla in European EV sales for the first time.

Additionally, European carmakers are cutting costs and adapting to U.S. tariffs on auto imports, further intensifying competition. Chinese EV manufacturers are also cutting EV prices.

While Tesla faces challenges in Europe, the broader EV market continues to expand, driven by government incentives and stricter emission targets.

However, unless Tesla refreshes its lineup and rebuilds consumer trust, its dominance in the European market may continue to erode.

The company’s future remains uncertain as it navigates political controversies and shifting market dynamics

BYD Surpasses Tesla in European EV sales for the first time in upset for Tesla

BYD

April 2025 marked a watershed moment in the European electric vehicle (EV) market as BYD outsold Tesla for the first time ever.

According to JATO Dynamics, BYD registered 7,231 battery-electric vehicles, narrowly surpassing Tesla’s 7,165 registrations.

This shift comes despite EU-imposed tariffs on Chinese-made EVs, which were expected to hinder BYD’s growth. However, the company’s aggressive expansion strategy and diversified lineup – including plug-in hybrids – helped it navigate trade barriers and maintain momentum.

Tesla, on the other hand, has faced declining sales, with its European registrations dropping 49% year-over-year. Production delays, protests against CEO Elon Musk, and consumer hesitation over new Model Y trims have contributed to the slump.

BYD’s success signals a changing landscape in Europe’s EV market. With its Hungarian production plant set to open soon, the company is poised for further growth.

Presumably now, Tesla must reassess its strategy to regain dominance in a market it once ruled.

As competition intensifies, European consumers will benefit from greater EV choices, potentially driving further innovation in the industry

Are we underestimating the impact of tariffs on S&P 500 earnings growth?

Asleep

As global trade tensions escalate, many investors and analysts are questioning whether markets are too complacent about the long-term effects of tariffs on corporate earnings.

While some argue that businesses have adapted to protectionist policies, others warn that the S&P 500’s earnings growth could face significant headwinds.

Tariffs: A hidden threat to profit margins

Tariffs increase costs for companies reliant on imported goods and materials. Businesses must either absorb these costs, pass them on to consumers, or find alternative suppliers – each option presenting challenges.

According to Goldman Sachs, an additional 5% tariff could reduce S&P 500 earnings by 1-2%.

A 100% tariff would equate to around 10-20% reduction in the S&P 500 – and that’s correction territory.

Retailers and manufacturers are particularly vulnerable

Companies like Best Buy, Walmart, and Target rely on imports, and higher tariffs could suppress profit margins or lead to higher consumer prices, potentially dampening demand.

Market sentiment vs. economic reality

Despite concerns, Wall Street has remained relatively optimistic. A recent 90-day tariff pause between the U.S. and China has boosted investor confidence, leading firms like Goldman Sachs and Yardeni Research to raise their S&P 500 targets.

This optimism may be short-lived if tariffs resume or escalate

Sector-specific risks

Certain industries are more exposed than others

Technology: Supply chain disruptions and higher costs for components could reduce profit margins.

Consumer Discretionary: Higher prices on imported goods could weaken consumer spending.

Industrials: Increased costs for raw materials could slow growth and investment.

The bigger picture: long-term economic impact

Beyond immediate earnings concerns, tariffs could stifle innovation, reduce global competitiveness, and slow economic growth.

Citi analysts estimate that aggressive tariffs could cut S&P 500 earnings growth by 2-3%.

A false sense of security?

While markets have bounced back from initial tariff shocks, the long-term effects remain uncertain.

Investors should closely monitor trade policies, sector-specific risks, and corporate earnings reports to assess whether the S&P 500’s growth trajectory is truly secure – or dangerously fragile.

Time will tell – but the S&P 500 is vulnerable to pressure right now!

Trump tariff roll-back – a win for China? U.S. markets rejoice the ‘deal’

U.S. markets gain on U.S China tariff roll-back announcement

The U.S. stock market surged as investors cheered a breakthrough in trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing.

The rollback of tariffs, announced as part of a new trade agreement, sent the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite soaring.

The deal, which slashes ‘reciprocal’ tariffs on both sides, is seen as a major de-escalation in the ongoing trade war that has rattled global markets for years.

Wall Street’s Reaction

Markets responded with enthusiasm as the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped over 1,000 points, while the S&P 500 climbed more than 2.5%, and the Nasdaq surged by nearly 3%.

Investors had been wary of prolonged trade tensions, which had weighed heavily on corporate earnings and economic growth.

The tariff rollback signals a potential thaw in relations, boosting confidence across sectors, particularly in technology, retail, and manufacturing.

Tariff rollback

Under the agreement, U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports will be reduced from 145% to 30%, while China’s tariffs on American goods will drop from 125% to 10%. The reductions will be in effect for 90 days, allowing both nations to continue negotiations on a broader trade framework.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasised that neither side wants a complete decoupling, and the rollback is intended to restore trade flows disrupted by years of economic brinkmanship.

China’s perspective: A strategic victory?

While the U.S. markets celebrated, China views the deal as a significant win. Beijing has sought relief from the steep tariffs imposed by Washington, which had strained its export-driven economy.

The agreement not only reduces financial pressure on Chinese manufacturers but also positions China as a key player in shaping future trade policies.

Some analysts argue that Beijing successfully leveraged its economic resilience to push Washington toward concessions, reinforcing its global influence.

Looking ahead

Despite the optimism, uncertainties remain. The 90-day window for negotiations suggests that further trade disputes could arise if talks stall. But will the U.S. allow that after the stock market turmoil Trump’s tariffs originally created?

Additionally, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell cautioned that while sentiment has improved, the economic impact of previous tariffs has yet to fully materialise. Investors will be watching closely for signs of sustained progress, as any setbacks could trigger renewed volatility.

For now, Wall Street is basking in the relief of a tariff truce, with hopes that this momentum will lead to a more stable and predictable trade environment.

Whether this marks the beginning of a lasting resolution or just a temporary reprieve remains to be seen.

It is most likely now a platform for the U.S. to benefit from generally lower tariffs in the future.

There will again be cheap goods on U.S. shelves in time for Christmas.

U.S. and China agree 90-day ‘reciprocal’ tariff pause and reduction deal

Tariff trade war 90-day pause

In a surprising breakthrough, the United States and China have agreed to suspend most tariffs on each other’s goods for 90 days, marking a significant step toward easing trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies.

Following high-stakes negotiations in Geneva, representatives from both nations announced that reciprocal tariffs would be slashed from 125% to 10%, significantly lowering trade barriers.

However, the U.S. will continue imposing 20% tariffs on Chinese imports related to fentanyl, meaning total tariffs on Chinese goods will settle at 30%.

The agreement signals a temporary thaw in what has been a long-standing economic standoff between Washington and Beijing. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who played a leading role in the discussions, described the talks as ‘very productive’, crediting the location for fostering an atmosphere of cooperation.

While this move could provide immediate relief for businesses and consumers impacted by trade restrictions, analysts caution that the 90-day suspension may not translate into a long-term solution.

Some experts speculate that ongoing trade negotiations could lead to further reductions, while others warn that unresolved tensions could lead to reinstated tariffs if agreements stall.

For now, the deal presents an opportunity for renewed dialogue, leaving global markets optimistic about future relations between the two economic powerhouses.

How the next three months unfold will determine whether this development is a stepping stone to broader reforms or simply a temporary reprieve in a complex trade dispute.

I expect Trump, having instigated the ‘tariff’ upheaval, will happily hang on to this ‘deal’ with China to avoid any further stock market turmoil.

What really just happened? The markets seem to be rewarding a situation that was artificially created and then ‘fixed’.

Aren’t we simply back where we were before the Trump tariff onslaught or is this really a ‘promise’ for better ‘deals’ to come?

Has it opened a door for better relations?

Create a problem… fix a problem!

It’s all about the U.S.

We’ll see…