The Nationwide Building Society says house prices are 5.3% lower compared to August last year, in the biggest annual decline since 2009.
Nationwide said the drop represented a fall of £14,600 on a typical home in the UK since house prices peaked in August 2022. It also said higher borrowing costs for buyers had led to a slowdown in activity in the housing market. Mortgage approvals are also about 20% below pre-Covid levels.
After 14 rate increases from the Bank of England – a two year fixed rate mortgage is now touching 6.7%
Since December 2021, the Bank of England (BoE) has raised interest rates 14 times in row in a bid to clamp down on rising inflation in the UK. The bank’s base rate now stands at 5.25%. This has led to lenders raising their mortgage rates, putting increased pressure on homebuyers.
The average two-year fixed mortgage rate on Friday was 6.7%, while the average five-year fix was 6.19%.
Average house prices in the UK peaked at £273,751 in August 2022 but fell to £259,153 last month.
The price of bitcoin surged Tuesday 29th August 2023 after the U.S. Court of Appeals ruled that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) was wrong to deny crypto investment giant Grayscale permission to convert its popular bitcoin trust into an ETF.
Bitcoin jumped around 7% following the ruling to $27,852. The move lifted other cryptocurrencies as well as crypto equities higher.
Grayscale
Grayscale’s lawsuit against the SEC has been closely watched by investors and other industry participants as a key catalyst that would shake up a market governed by low volatility and liquidity.
Earlier this month, bitcoin trading volatility fell to its lowest level in more than four years as investors had been waiting on the sidelines for more regulatory clarity on crypto activity .
Several bitcoin futures ETFs have already been approved in the U.S.
‘Shackles being removed from crypto regulation paving way for easier crypto trading’
Court ruling
‘The denial of Grayscale’s proposal was arbitrary and capricious … The Commission failed to adequately explain why it approved the listing of two bitcoin futures ETPs but not Grayscale’s proposed bitcoin Exchange Trade Product (ETP),‘the court said in the ruling. ‘In the absence of a coherent explanation, this unlike regulatory treatment of like products is unlawful. We therefore grant Grayscale’s petition for review and vacate the Commission’s order‘.
Tuesday’s ruling may increase the chances that the SEC will approve other bitcoin ETF applications, including that of BlackRock, whose filing in late June 2023 drove one of bitcoin’s big rallies this year, as well as Fidelity, Invesco and many others.
A U.S. bitcoin ETF would provide a way to get exposure to bitcoin without having to hold it, which would invite retail and institutional investors as well as wealth managers into the market.
A spokesperson for the SEC said it’s ‘reviewing the court’s decision to determine next steps‘.
‘Today’s decision reaffirms that a bitcoin ETF in the U.S. is a matter of when, not if’, said the global head of asset management at Galaxy, which filed with Invesco for its bitcoin ETF. ‘In order for digital assets to continue to flourish, they must be accessible to all investors. We believe that the ETF structure can enable greater access to and transparency across cryptocurrency investing, and truly help further democratize the asset class‘.
Dark cloud for crypto finally lifting?
The ruling also comes as a relief to many crypto market traders who have been frustrated by the SEC, particularly under Chair Gary Gensler, and its insistence on regulating by enforcement.
The crypto industry has long sought out clarity in rules businesses can apply to establish and build long-lasting, compliant companies. The U.S. regulatory crackdown on crypto in 2023 – which includes SEC enforcements and a lawsuit against the biggest U.S. crypto exchange Coinbase and also its case against XRP Ripple has been a dark cloud over the market.
Lawsuit filed June 2022
Grayscale initiated its lawsuit against the SEC in June 2022 after the agency rejected its application to turn its bitcoin trust, better known by its ticker GBTC, into an ETF. The company decided to pursue the ETF, which would be backed by bitcoin rather than bitcoin derivatives, after the SEC approved ProShares’ futures-based bitcoin ETF in October 2021.
The ruling faced multiple delays but the SEC ultimately rejected the application last summer, citing failure by Grayscale to answer questions related to concerns about market manipulation and investor protections.
Japan has started releasing treated radioactive water from the Fukushima nuclear plant into the Pacific Ocean on Thursday 25th August 2023.
This is a controversial decision that has been opposed by China, South Korea, and some Pacific island nations. They fear that the water release will harm the marine environment and human health, and affect seafood exports.
Safe?
Japan says that the water release is safe and necessary for the decommissioning of the plant, which was damaged by a massive earthquake and tsunami in 2011. The water has been treated to remove most of the radioactive substances, except for tritium and carbon-14, which are considered to have low risks. The water will also be diluted to meet the international standards for drinking water before being discharged.
IAEA
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has endorsed Japan’s plan and said that the water release will have a negligible impact on people and the environment. The IAEA will also monitor the water release and verify Japan’s compliance with the safety standards.
30 years
The water release is expected to take about 30 years to complete, and will involve pumping out about 1.34 million tonnes of water from more than 1,000 tanks at the Fukushima site.
Japan Fukushima nuclear plant controversial release of potentially contaminated water
Slow-Growing UK Faces Over £2.6 Trillion Debt Pile
£2,600,000,000,000 in debt
The amount the UK owes exceeds GDP for first time since 1961. Inflation-linked bonds mean the UK is paying more than its peers.
From the financial crisis to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the UK has borrowed and spent its way out of every jam. The bill for that is becoming a massive concern for the UK treasury and for the economy.
£2.6 trillion public debt
The UK’s public debt has soared by more than 40% to almost £2.6 trillion ($3.3 trillion) since the pandemic struck, leaving the country owing more than its entire annual economic output for the first time since 1961. A heavy reliance on index-linked bonds, at a time of high inflation, also means Britain will pay more to service the debt.
The high level of debt poses a risk to the UK’s credit rating, which could affect its borrowing costs and fiscal credibility. The three main credit-rating firms are due to update their assessments of the UK over the next four months in 2023, and some analysts are concerned that the UK could face a downgrade, especially after the U.S. lost its AAA status from Fitch.
A downgrade could undermine Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s effort to rebuild Britain’s fiscal reputation after his predecessor, Liz Truss, triggered a bond-market crash in 2022 by promising huge unfunded tax cuts.
Bond sell-off pressure
The pressure on the UK’s finances is also being compounded by a selloff in bonds amid aggressive rate hikes by the Bank of England to quell inflation. The yield on the 10-year benchmark this week rose above 4.70% to its highest since 2008.
UK debt higher than UK GDP March 2023
The UK bond market is among the developed world’s worst performers this year. The rise in yields could increase the cost of servicing the debt, which is already high due to the UK’s heavy reliance on index-linked bonds that adjust with inflation.
The UK’s economic growth is forecast to remain flat through next year, which limits the scope for reducing the debt through higher revenues or lower spending. The National Health Service is stretched to breaking point and the tax burden is already at a 70-year high. The ONS warned that debt could balloon to more than three times GDP over the next half century without action.
ONS data
According to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the UK’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.2% in the second quarter of 2023 (April to June), following a revised growth of 0.1% in the first quarter of 2023 (January to March). This means that the UK’s GDP growth rate for the whole year of 2023 is estimated to be 0.3%, which is lower than the previous forecast of 0.5%.
ONS data to March 2023
The main factors that contributed to the weak GDP growth in the second quarter were the slowdown in consumer spending, the decline in business investment, and the negative impact of the additional bank holiday in May due to the King’s Coronation. The services sector, which accounts for about 80% of the UK’s economy, grew by only 0.1% in the second quarter, while the production sector grew by 0.7%, and the construction sector fell by 0.2%.
Uncertain outlook in uncertain times
The outlook for the UK’s economy remains uncertain, as it faces several challenges such as high inflation, rising interest rates, a slowing global economy, and the ongoing effects of Brexit and the effects of the war in Ukraine.
ONS data for EU countries
Some economists have warned that the UK faces a ‘very real risk’ of recession due to higher interest rates, which could dampen consumer and business confidence and increase the cost of servicing the debt.
The OECD has projected that the UK’s GDP growth will improve moderately to 1.0% in 2024, but still remain below its pre-pandemic level.
AI Chatbot ChatGPT reportedly has a political bias
ChatGPT, the popular artificial intelligence chatbot, shows a significant and systemic left-wing bias, UK researchers have found. According to the new study by the University of East Anglia, this includes favouring theLabour Party and President Joe Biden’s Democrats in the U.S.
Concerns about an inbuilt political bias in ChatGPT have been raised before, notably by SpaceX and Tesla tycoon Elon Musk, but the academics said their work was the first large-scale study to find proof of any favouritism.
Lead author o the report reportedly warned that given the increasing use of OpenAI’s platform by the public, the findings could have implications for upcoming elections on both sides of the Atlantic. Any bias in a platform like this is a concern’, he said. If the bias were to the right, we should be equally concerned.
Sometimes people forget these AI models are just machines. They provide very believable, digested summaries of what you are asking, even if they’re completely wrong. And if you ask it ‘are you neutral’, it says ‘oh I am!’ Just as the media, the internet, and social media can influence the public, this could be very harmful. I have personally witnessed incorrect responses from ChatGPT where the AI ‘system’ 100% believed ‘it’ was correct and would not engage in a debate as ‘it’ was right!
How was ChatGPT tested for bias?
The chatbot, which generates responses to prompts typed in by the user, was asked to impersonate people from across the political spectrum while answering dozens of ideological questions. These questions ranged from radical to neutral, with each ‘individual’ asked whether they agreed, strongly agreed, disagreed, or strongly disagreed with a given statement.
UK researchers descovered Chatbot ChatGPT had a political bias
Its replies were compared to the default answers it gave to the same set of queries, allowing the researchers to compare how much they were associated with a particular political stance.
Each of the more than 60 questions was asked 100 times to allow for the potential randomness of the AI, and these multiple responses were analysed further for signs of bias.
Dr Motoki described it as a way of trying to simulate a survey of a real human population, whose answers may also differ depending on when they’re asked.
British microchip designing giant Arm has announced that it has filed paperwork to sell its shares in the U.S.
The Cambridge-based company, which designs chips for devices from smartphones to game consoles, plans to list on New York’s Nasdaq in September. The highly anticipated IPO in the U.S. comes after UK Prime Minister, failed to convince Arm to float in London or pursue a dual UK-U.S. listing.
Arm’s decision to list in New York rather than London has fuelled fears that the City is losing its competitiveness to Wall Street, where valuations are typically higher. SoftBank-owned chip designer Arm on 21st August 2023 disclosed a modest 1% fall in annual revenue as it made public the paperwork for a U.S. listing that is expected to be the year’s biggest initial public offering. The company is reportedly looking for a valuation of between $60bn (£47bn) to $70bn.
Arm was bought in 2016 by Japanese conglomerate Softbank in a deal worth £23.4bn. Prior to the takeover, it was listed in both London and New York for 18 years.
Companies that use ARM processors in their products
Some of the companies that use ARM processors include Apple, Qualcomm, Samsung, Broadcom, and Fujitsu. ARM technology is used in a wide range of devices, from smartphones to game consoles to supercomputers.
ARM
Arm is a British semiconductor and software design company that is known for its Arm processors, which are widely used in smartphones, tablets, laptops, and other devices. Arm was founded in 1990 as a joint venture between Acorn Computers, Apple Computer, and VLSI Technology. The company was originally called Advanced RISC Machines, but later changed its name to Arm Ltd in 1998.
The 89 threats to life in the UK are listed in a recent report called the National Risk Register (NRR), which was published by the Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden on 3rd August 2023.
The NRR is an assessment of the risks facing the UK that would have a significant impact on the UK’s safety, security or critical systems at a national level. The NRR is based on the government’s internal, classified risk assessment and offers more detail on the potential scenarios, response and recovery options relating to the risks.
The 89 threats are divided into four categories: natural hazards, malicious attacks, accidents and system failures, and global events.
Some of the threats
Natural hazards: These include extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, floods, storms, droughts, and wildfires; geological hazards, such as earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, and landslides; biological hazards, such as pandemics, animal diseases, plant diseases, and invasive species; and space weather events, such as solar flares and geomagnetic storms.
Malicious attacks: These include terrorism, such as bombings, shootings, chemical weapons, biological weapons, radiological weapons, cyberattacks, and drones; espionage and sabotage, such as interference with critical infrastructure, communications, or data; and conflict and instability, such as war, nuclear weapons, state-sponsored attacks, civil unrest, and violent extremism.
‘Cyber security hack – just one of the potential risks facing the UK’.
Accidents and system failures: These include industrial accidents, such as explosions, fires, spills, or leaks; transport accidents, such as plane crashes, train derailments, ship collisions, or road collisions; infrastructure failures, such as power outages, water shortages, gas leaks, or internet disruptions; and technological failures, such as software bugs, hardware malfunctions, or AI errors.
Global events: These include economic crises, such as recessions, inflation, debt defaults, or trade wars; political crises, such as coups, revolutions, sanctions, or human rights violations; social crises, such as migration flows, refugee crises, humanitarian emergencies, or famines; and environmental crises, such as climate change, biodiversity loss, pollution, or resource depletion.
Threat level
The NRR also provides information on how likely each threat is to occur in the next five years (from very low to very high), how severe the impact would be on the UK (from minor to catastrophic), and what actions the government and other stakeholders are taking to prevent or mitigate the risks.
The NRR is intended to help the public and businesses better understand and prepare for potential threats facing the country now and in the future.
Singapore’s financial regulator has reportedly said it had finalised rules for a type of digital currency called ‘stablecoin’, placing it among some of first the regulators worldwide to do so.
Stablecoins are a type of digital currency designed to hold a constant value against a fiat currency. Many claim to be backed by a reserve of real-world assets, such as cash or government bonds.
Reserves that back stabelcoins must be held in low-risk and highly-liquid assets. They must equal or exceed the value of the stablecoin in circulation at all times, the rules say. The stablecoin market is valued at around $125 billion, with two tokens – Tether’s USDT and Circle’s USDC – dominating roughly 90% of the market cap value. Stablecoins are broadly unregulated around the world.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore’s (MAS) framework requirement
Reserves that back stabelcoins must be held in low-risk and highly-liquid assets. They must equal or exceed the value of the stablecoin in circulation at all times
Stablecoin issuers must return the par value of the digital currency to holders within five business days of a redemption request.
Issuers must also provide ‘appropriate disclosures‘ to users, including the audit results of reserves.
These rules will apply to stablecoins that are issued in Singapore and mimic the value of the Singapore dollar, or of any G10 currencies, such as the U.S. dollar.
‘Shackles being removed from crypto regulation paving way for stablecoin adoption’
Last year, the collapse of a so-called algorithmic stablecoin named UST put this type of stablecoin in the crosshairs of regulators. Unlike USDT and USDC, UST was governed by an algorithm and did not have real-world assets like bonds in its reserves.
Singapore’s stablecoin framework puts it among one of the first jurisdictions to have such rules. In June, the U.K. passed a law that gives regulators the ability to oversee stablecoins, though there are no concrete rules yet. Hong Kong is meanwhile undergoing a public consultation on stablecoins and seeks to introduce regulation next year.
What is a stablecoin
A stablecoin is a type of cryptocurrency that tries to maintain a stable value by being pegged to another asset, such as a fiat currency, a commodity, or another cryptocurrency. Stablecoins aim to offer the benefits of cryptocurrencies, such as decentralisation, security, and transparency, without the drawbacks of high volatility and price fluctuations.
Stablecoins can be used for payments, remittances, trading, and storing value. However, stablecoins also face some challenges and risks, such as regulatory uncertainty, technical issues, and trust issues.
There are different ways to create and manage stablecoins, depending on the mechanism used to stabilize their value.
Main types of stablecoins
Fiat-backed: These stablecoins are backed by a reserve of fiat currency, such as the US dollar or the euro, held by a third-party entity. The stablecoin issuer promises to redeem the stablecoin for the fiat currency at a fixed ratio. Examples of fiat-backed stablecoins are Tether (USDT), USD Coin (USDC), and TrueUSD (TUSD).
Commodity-backed: These stablecoins are backed by a reserve of physical commodities, such as gold, silver, or oil, held by a third-party entity. The stablecoin issuer promises to redeem the stablecoin for the commodity at a fixed ratio. Examples of commodity-backed stablecoins are Paxos Gold (PAXG), Tether Gold (XAUT), and Digix Gold (DGX).
Crypto-backed: These stablecoins are backed by a reserve of other cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin or Ethereum, held in a smart contract. The stablecoin issuer uses over-collateralization or algorithmic adjustments to maintain the stability of the stablecoin. Examples of crypto-backed stablecoins are Dai (DAI), sUSD (SUSD), and BitUSD (BITUSD).
Algorithmic: These stablecoins are not backed by any reserve, but instead use an algorithm to control the supply and demand of the stablecoin. The algorithm adjusts the supply of the stablecoin according to the market conditions and the target price. Examples of algorithmic stablecoins are Basis Cash (BAC), Empty Set Dollar (ESD), and TerraUSD (UST).
What is ‘crypto’
Crypto has attracted a lot of attention in recent years. Crypto is short for cryptocurrency, which is a digital or virtual currency that uses cryptography to secure and verify transactions. Crypto can also refer to the underlying technology that powers cryptocurrencies, such as blockchain.
Some examples of popular cryptocurrencies are Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple ( XRP)and Cardano (ADA).
Cryptoman superhero
Cryptocurrencies have many advantages over traditional currencies, such as decentralisation, transparency, anonymity, and lower fees. However, they also face some challenges, such as volatility, regulation, security, and scalability. Crypto enthusiasts believe that cryptocurrencies have the potential to revolutionise the world of finance and beyond.
Some examples of popular stablecoins are Tether, USD Coin and Binance USD.
Asia is promoting clear crypto rules at a time when large businesses are facing regulatory uncertainty in the U.S.
Some Asian countries that have taken the lead in crypto regulation include Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, and South Korea. They have proposed or implemented frameworks that protect investors, prevent money laundering, and encourage innovation in the crypto industry.
Lack of clarity in U.S.
In contrast, the U.S. has been singled out for its lack of clarity and consistency in crypto regulation. The SEC for instance and other agencies have different views on how to classify and regulate crypto assets – take alook at the case with XRP and ripple of recent years.
Some industry leaders have threatened to leave the U.S. or sued the regulators over their actions. There is also a debate in Congress that could level crypto transactions with a tax.
Attractive
As a result, some analysts have suggested that Asia could become more attractive to investors and innovators in the crypto industry, as it offers more certainty and stability in the regulatory environment.
However, there are also challenges and risks involved in crypto regulation, such as balancing security and innovation, ensuring compliance and enforcement, and dealing with cross-border issue.
Regular pay grew by 7.8%, the highest annual growth rate since comparable records began in 2001.Inflation, which measures the pace at which prices are rising, has eased but remains relatively high at 7.9%. Thhe ONS suggested these latest figures demonstrates ‘people’s real pay is recovering‘ and that basic pay is growing at its fastest since current records began’.
However, wage growth is still not quite outstripping the pace of price rises and inflation is still high. Figures suggest that, taking into account the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) measure of inflation, average regular pay fell by 0.6%.
There are signs in the ONS’s data that the UK employment market is easing. The jobless rate rose from 4% to 4.2%, while the number of people in employment ticked lower.
Backward stats..?
The fall in employment in the three months to June and the further rise in the unemployment rate will be welcomed by the Bank of England as a sign labour market conditions are cooling. These comments from an analyst were presented as welcome news – but they are odd really when an economy needs good levels of employment (not unemployment). We live in weird times! Good news! Bad news!
The Bank of England is still generally expected by many pundits to increase its key interest rate again to 5.5% before ending the current run of rate rises.
The number of vacancies in the UK jobs market fell again, down 66,000 between May and July 2023. However, there are still more than one million vacancies.
Strike action adds to inflationary pressure
List of workers striking for higher pay
Teachers
Tube staff
Railway workers
Doctors
Nurses
NHS staff
Ambulance workers
Passport Office workers
Border control staff
Airport workers
Civil servants
University staff
Barristers
This is by no means an exhaustive list – just a sample of the demands placed on resources through strike action that impacts inflation through a period of fast wage growth.
Russia’s central bank has announced a surprise hike in its key lending rate by 3.5%, from 8.5% to 12%, as the country’s economic recovery loses steam amid a resurgence of COVID-19 cases and weak domestic demand.
The decision was announced after an emergency meeting of the bank’s board of directors was called a day earlier as the ruble declined. The fall comes as Moscow increases military spending and Western sanctions weigh on its energy exports.
The Russian currency passed 101 roubles to the dollar on Monday, losing more than a third of its value since the beginning of the year and hitting the lowest level in almost 17 months. It had recovered slightly after the central bank announced the meeting.
The central bank blamed the weak ruble on ‘loose monetary policy‘, suggesting that bank has ‘all the tools necessary‘ to stabilize the situation.
More imports, less exports
By raising borrowing costs, the central bank is trying to fight price spikes as Russia imports more and exports less, especially oil and natural gas, with defense spending going up and sanctions taking a toll. Importing more and exporting less means a smaller trade surplus, which typically weighs on a country’s currency.
The bank also made a big rate hike of 1% last month, saying inflation is expected to keep rising and the fall in the ruble is adding to the risk.
After Western countries imposed sanctions on Russia over the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the ruble plunged to a low of 130 to the dollar, but the central bank enacted capital controls that stabilized its value.
China’s central bank has announced a surprise cut in its key lending rates as the country’s economic recovery loses steam amid as domestic demand remains weak.
The PBOC trimmed the interest rate on 401 billion yuan ($55.25 billion) worth of one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) loans from 2.65% to 2.50%.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said on Monday 14th August 2023 that it would lower the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) by 10 basis points from 3.55% to 3.45%, and the five-year LPR by 10 basis points from 4.2% to 4.1%. The LPRs are benchmark rates that reflect the cost of borrowing for banks and businesses.
Easing domestic contraints
The rate cuts are aimed at easing the financial constraints on households and businesses to boost their financing demand and stimulating economic growth, which slowed to 5.2% year-on-year in the second quarter, down from 6.8% in the first quarter.
Analysts said the rate cuts also indicated a shift in China’s monetary policy stance from neutral to moderately easing, as the PBOC faces increasing pressure to support the economy amid rising deflationary risks, falling producer and consumer prices, and subdued real estate activity.
The PBOC reportedly said it would continue to implement a prudent monetary policy and maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the market.
UK to unleash £50 billion in pension funding for tech startups
The U.K. government has unveiled a series of reforms that will allow pension funds to invest more in private and high-growth companies, especially in the tech sector. The move is expected to boost economic growth, support innovation and increase returns for future retirees.
The reforms include an agreement with the country’s largest defined contribution pension schemes to allocate 5% of assets in their default funds to unlisted equities by 2030. This could unlock up to £50 billion of investment in high-growth firms if all other defined contribution pension schemes follow suit, according to the government.
AI
The government will also create new investment vehicles that will give pensioners a stake in homegrown private companies, such as fintech and biotech startups, that have increasingly snubbed the London Stock Exchange and turned to foreign investors for cash. The aim is to make the U.K. a more attractive market for technology and a global leader in emerging fields like artificial intelligence.
The Treasury claimed that the reforms would not only help burgeoning industries, but could also result in higher returns for workers’ retirement funds. The government estimates that the average earner’s pension pot could rise up to 12% to as much as £16,000 with defined contribution pension schemes committing to more effective investments.
Unlock
The announcement comes amid criticism that the U.K. is losing its edge in technology and innovation, as evidenced by the recent decision of U.K. chip design giant Arm to list in New York rather than London. The chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, reportedly said that he wanted to make the U.K. ‘the world’s next Silicon Valley and a science superpower’ by unlocking investment from the U.K.’s £2.5 trillion pensions sector.
The reforms were welcomed by industry groups and experts, who said that they would help address the funding gap faced by many U.K. startups and scale-ups, and create more opportunities for long-term growth and value creation.
The U.S. will ban American investment in some areas of China’s high-tech sector, including artificial intelligence, adding to strained relations between the two superpowers.
U.S. firms will also be invited to disclose what investments they make in China in high-tech sectors.The much-anticipated move gives the U.S. government new power to screen foreign dealings by private companies. The U.S. said the measure would be narrowly targeted. However, it is poised to further chill economic relations between the world’s two largest economies. China has reportedly said it was ‘very disappointed‘. The U.S. ‘has continuously escalated suppression and restrictions on China‘. He added that White House claims that the US was not seeking to hurt China’s economy or separate the two countries did not match its actions. ‘We urge the US side to honour its words‘.
Biden order
The order by U.S. President Biden formally kicks off the push to introduce rules to restrict, even prevent American businesses from investing in firms from ‘countries of concern‘ that are active in advanced semiconductors, quantum computing and certain areas of artificial intelligence.
The government will also require U.S. firms to notify the Treasury Department of investments in firms working on a wider range of artificial intelligence and semiconductor technology.
U.S. restriction on AI related tech knowledge to China
The rules are not expected to apply to ‘portfolio’ investments, in which firms invest passively in companies via the stock market, but are focused on active investments made by private equity and venture capital businesses. They will now enter a public ‘reflection’ period, which is expected to further clarify what kinds of investments are off-limits. The rules are not expected to go into effect for sometime yet. This new ‘order’ is quite a big deal.
In a briefing with reporters, senior administration officials said the measure was a ‘national security action, not an economic one‘. They said the U.S. remained committed to open investment.
Investment control
Controls on outbound investment are rare among advanced economies, currently present only in Japan and Korea, according to a 2022 report.
In the U.S., prior restrictions on China trade have relied on limiting sales of sensitive technology by U.S. firms and screening Chinese investments in American companies. The Trump administration had also barred investments in firms tied to China’s military.
The latest measure has widespread support in Washington, where it is seen as fixing a regulatory gap concerning financial flows that risks allowing American money and know-how to to flow into China.
International support
The U.S. has been trying to build international support for the investment curbs with some signs of success.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in May 2023 said the UK government would consider curbs on outbound investment; the European Commission put forward a proposal focused on investments in sensitive technologies earlier this summer. It is not clear how significantly the order would affect flows of investment.
China was the number two destination for foreign investment in 2022, behind the U.S., but many reports suggest money flowing into the country from the U.S. and elsewhere has dropped sharply as geopolitical relations sour. In the UK, a recent survey by the Institute of Directors found that one in five UK importers had already switched investments away from the country due to geopolitical tensions.
Gallium and Germanium considered critical elements required in the production of microchips
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who visited China in July 2023 in an attempt to ease tensions, said last month she did not think the coming curbs would have a fundamental impact on the investment climate in the country.
Will these measures likely damage the U.S. in the future by escalating issues and restricting the U.S. from other shared advancements in technology – only time will tell.
Tech’ rivalry
U.S. and China are two of the world’s leading powers in artificial intelligence (AI) and semiconductors, which are essential components for many AI applications such as self-driving cars, smart phones, and cloud computing. However, the two countries have also been engaged in a fierce competition and rivalry over these technologies, as they seek to gain an edge in innovation, security, and economic growth. Some of the issues that have caused tensions between U.S. and China include trade disputes, intellectual property theft, cyberattacks, human rights violations, and military expansion.
AI chips
AI semiconductors are designed to perform complex calculations and tasks that require high levels of intelligence, such as natural language processing, computer vision, and machine learning.
These chips can be classified into two types: general-purpose chips that can run various AI algorithms, and specialized chips that are optimized for specific AI functions or domains.
Americans are using their credit cards more than ever, pushing the total balance to over $1 trillion for the first time in history, according to a report from the New York Federal Reserve.
The report, released August 2023, showed that credit card balances rose by $45 billion to $1.03 trillion in the second quarter of 2023, reflecting robust consumer spending as well as higher prices due to inflation. The increase was the largest quarterly gain since 2008 and surpassed the previous record of $1.02 trillion set in 2019.
The rise in credit card debt also coincided with a higher payment failure rate, which measures the share of borrowers who are at least 30 days behind on their payments. The failure measure climbed to 7.2% in the second quarter, up from 6.5% in the first quarter and the highest level since 2012.
The New York Fed reportedly said that the increase in failure rates may reflect a normalization to pre-pandemic levels, as many lenders offered relief programs and forbearance options to borrowers during the Covid-19 crisis. However, some analysts warned that the high level of credit card debt could pose a risk to the financial stability of households and the economy if interest rates rise or incomes fall.
Expensive debt
Credit card debt is one of the most expensive forms of debt, and it can quickly spiral out of control if not managed. ‘Consumers should aim to pay off their balances in full every month, or at least pay more than the minimum due, to avoid paying unnecessary interest and fees.
The burden of debt is all to consuming!
Interest rates and fees on credit cards are one of the highest payable and if you fall into the debt spiral it can be almost impossible to liberate yourself from that consuming debt.
Younger users
The New York Fed also noted that credit card usage has become more widespread among Americans, especially among younger and lower-income borrowers. The share of adults with at least one credit card increased from 76% in 2019 to 79% in 2021, while the share of those with four or more cards rose from 18% to 21% over the same period.
Tool
The report suggested that credit cards have become an essential tool for many consumers to access credit and smooth purchases over time, especially during periods of economic uncertainty and volatility. However, it also cautioned that credit cards can also lead to overborrowing and financial distress if not used responsibly.
It is one of the most expensive ways to borrow money and far too easy to access.
China’s consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.3% in August from a year ago, while the producer price index (PPI) fell by 4.4% last month. This is the first time since February 2021 that the CPI has fallen, and the 10th consecutive month that the PPI has contracted. This indicates that China is experiencing deflation pressure as demand in the world’s second-largest economy weakens.
Factors that contribute to the deflation risk
A prolonged property market slump, which reduces investment and consumption.
A plunging demand for exports, due to the global economic slowdown and trade tensions with the United States.
A subdued consumer spending, due to the coronavirus pandemic and rising unemployment.
Deflation can have negative effects on the economy
Lowering profits and incomes for businesses and households.
Increasing the real value of debt and making it harder to repay.
Reducing incentives for investment and innovation.
Creating a downward spiral of falling prices and demand.
The Chinese government and the central bank have taken some measures to stimulate the economy and prevent deflation.
Cutting interest rates and reserve requirement ratios for banks.
Increasing fiscal spending and issuing special bonds for infrastructure projects.
Providing tax relief and subsidies for businesses and consumers.
However, these measures have not been enough to offset the deflationary pressure, and some analysts expect more monetary easing and fiscal support in the coming months.
Deflation definition
Deflation is the opposite of inflation. It means that the prices of goods and services are going down over time. This may sound good for consumers, who can buy more with the same amount of money. But deflation can also have negative effects on the economy.
Deflation can be caused by a decrease in the supply of money and credit, a fall in demand, or an increase in productivity. To prevent or reverse deflation, the central bank and the government can use monetary and fiscal policies to stimulate the economy, much the same as we are now seeing to deal with ‘inflation’.
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has asked the City watchdog to speed up a probe into whether people have had bank accounts closed due to their political views
It follows a row over the closure of former UKIP leader Nigel Farage’s Coutts account.
Mr Hunt requested the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) to ‘urgently investigate how widespread this practice is, and put a stop to it’. The FCA reportedly said Mr Hunt’s request is ‘in line with our plans‘.
It comes after Mr Farage obtained a report from Coutts which indicated his political views were considered as a factor in his account closure. Mr Farage had his account re-instated and has launched a campaign against account closures which has received support from government ministers.
Express or suppress?
The FCA is already preparing to look into this, and banks also face government reforms over account closures. Mr Hunt reportedly said: ‘You can agree or disagree with Nigel Farage but everyone wants to be able to express their opinions’.
‘In today’s society, you need a bank account function and so a threat to be de-banked is a threat to your right to express your opinions‘.
Mr Hunt expressed the FCA has the power to fine banks ‘very large sums of money if they find this practice widespread’.
The Bank of England’s forecasting, which has a major impact on the UK economy, is being reviewed and has been criticised.
After the Bank raised interest rates for a 14th time in a row in an effort to slow price rises in Augts 2023, officials have predicted inflation to fall from the current rate of 7.9%, to ‘around 5%‘ by the end of the year. The Bank puts rates up when they are concerned that too much spending will send prices spiralling.
So, in light of its estimating techniques being challenged, how much faith should we put in ‘5% by Christmas’?
For the last two years, the Bank of England has been underestimating the likely rate of inflation in the short term. MPs have been critical of the Bank’s forecast, and its officials have acknowledged they have got some judgements wrong in their forecasting.
The Central Bank has also announced a review into how it makes forecasts.
This was one of the questions put to the Bank of England governor
Mr Baron:Good morning, everyone. In looking at the bank rate going forward, some of us, it is fair to say, have long believed that central banks, including the Bank of England, have been well behind the curve with regard to inflation. As the Chair has said, forecasting has been awry. The Bank of England is one among others that has been too slow in raising interest rates, allowing inflation to mushroom well above the 2% target.
I have put it as strongly as suggesting that it has been a woeful neglect of duty. It is causing real pain out there for people and businesses. We should always remember, as we sit in our, sometimes, white ivory towers, having these debates, that we are talking about people’s lives and businesses that are having to grapple with double-digit inflation and interest rates perhaps going up too quickly. I think that you get it, but it is useful to remind ourselves of that.
Why should the public have confidence in your ability to get it right going forward? What lessons do you think that you have learned? What are you going to do differently? I am not hearing a satisfactory answer to that...
See the full report here – be prepared, it’s an acquired taste and a long read…
More wrong than right
However, some critics have argued that the BoE’s forecasts are often too optimistic or pessimistic, and that they fail to capture the impact of major shocks or structural changes in the economy. For example, the BoE was widely criticised for underestimating the severity of the 2008 financial crisis and overestimating the negative effects of Brexit on the economy. Some have also questioned the usefulness of the BoE’s forecasts for guiding monetary policy decisions, as they may be influenced by political or psychological factors.
Therefore, it may be wise to take the BoE’s forecasts with a grain of salt, and not to rely on them too much for making economic or financial decisions. The BoE’s forecasts are not useless, but they are not infallible either. They are one of many sources of information and analysis that can help us understand the state and prospects of the UK economy, but they should not be treated as gospel truth.
The Bank of England has been wrong with too many forecasts, so why bother? Target 2%, actual above 10%!
This is the famous quote in the novel Animal Farm where it suggests ‘we are all equal, but some are more equal than others’.
Animal Farm is a fable by George Orwell that criticizes the corruption of power and the dangers of totalitarianism.
It appears in the last chapter of the novel, when the pigs have changed the original commandment of ‘All animals are equal‘ to justify their tyranny and privilege over the other animals. It is an example of how the pigs use language to manipulate and deceive the other animals, and how they betray the ideals of the ‘revolution’ that Old Major inspired.
Draw your own conclusions and comaparisons to ‘human’ behaviour…
George Orwell quote from Animal Farm, ‘All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others’
According to the chancellor Jeremy Hunt, the UK economy is caught in a trap
The UK and other advanced economies are facing a low-growth trap that is hard to escape. This means that the potential growth of the economy, which depends on factors such as productivity, innovation, investment, and labour force, is very low and insufficient to meet the demand and expectations of the people.
Brexit
The UK economy has been hit by huge global shocks that have disrupted its normal functioning and recovery. These include the Covid-19 pandemic, which caused lockdowns, restrictions, and health crises; the energy crisis, which led to soaring gas prices and supply shortages; and the Brexit transition, which created uncertainty and trade barriers.
Inflation
The UK economy is also struggling with high inflation, which erodes the purchasing power of consumers and businesses. Inflation is driven by various factors, such as rising energy costs, global supply chain bottlenecks, labour shortages, and pent-up demand.
‘Don’t you just love numbers?’
The Bank of England has raised interest rates to 5.25% as of August 2023 – the highest level since 2008, to curb inflation and maintain price stability. The Bank of England inflation target is 2%.
The plan?
The chancellor reportedly has vowed to stick to the plan that he believes will bring down inflation and boost growth in the long term.
He said that he will unveil a plan in the autumn statement that will show how the UK can break out of the low-growth trap and become one of the most entrepreneurial economies in the world. He also said that he will not ‘veer around like a shopping trolley‘ and change course in response to short-term pressures.
China has been leading the global electric vehicle (EV) market for years, thanks to its large domestic demand, generous government subsidies, and well-established battery and electronics industry. However, the west is not giving up on the race to electrify the transport sector and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Europe reportedly surpassed China in terms of new EV registrations in 2020, driven by stricter emission regulations, higher consumer awareness, and more diverse and affordable models. The United States also saw a growth in EV sales, despite the Covid-19 pandemic and lower fuel prices. How are western countries and companies now competing with China in the EV market?
Global automakers such are using advanced tech such as driver-assist software to compete in the world’s largest EV market – China. ‘China’s domestic brands are leading the market in the development and implementation of advanced assisted driving systems, capitalizing on their early-entry advantages in the electric and intelligent vehicle sector‘, a recent report suggests.
BofA reportedly said it expects China to still be the world’s largest EV market in 2025, standing at 40%-45% market share.
Strategy
One of the strategies is to invest more in research and development, innovation, and collaboration. Western automakers are trying to improve the performance, efficiency, and cost of their EVs by developing new technologies and designs, such as advanced batteries, smart and autonomous features, and sustainable materials. They are also partnering with other players in the EV ecosystem, such as battery suppliers, charging network operators, software developers, and regulators, to create synergies and overcome challenges.
EV
Another strategy is to adapt to local market conditions and consumer preferences. Western automakers are aware that China is not a homogeneous market, but rather a complex and dynamic one with different regional characteristics, customer segments, and competitive landscapes. They are tailoring their products and services to meet the specific needs and expectations of Chinese consumers, such as offering more connectivity options, longer driving ranges, and lower prices. They are also leveraging their global brand reputation, quality standards, and customer loyalty to differentiate themselves from local competitors.
Niche markets
A third strategy is to diversify their portfolio and target niche markets. Western automakers are not only focusing on passenger cars, but also exploring other types of EVs, such as commercial vehicles, motorcycles, scooters, and buses. They are also targeting niche markets that have high growth potential or specific demands, such as luxury cars, sports cars, or green cars. By doing so, they can tap into new customer segments and create more opportunities.
The EV market is expected to grow rapidly in the coming years, as more countries and regions adopt policies and measures to support the transition to low-carbon mobility. China will remain a dominant player in the global EV scene, but the west will not lag behind.
How do EV’s compare to traditional vehicles?
Electric vehicles (EVs) are becoming more popular and competitive with traditional cars in terms of performance and cost. Here are some of the main differences and similarities between EVs and traditional cars:
Performance: EVs have a faster acceleration and are more efficient than traditional cars. They can reach high speeds in a short time, thanks to their instant torque rovided by the electric motor. They also have a smoother and quieter ride, as they do not have gears or transmissions. However, traditional cars perform better at high speeds and have a longer driving range than EVs. They can also handle different terrains and weather conditions better than EVs, as they have more power and stability.
Cost: EVs have a higher retail price than traditional cars, on average. But EVs may be a better financial deal for consumers over the long term. That’s because maintenance, repair and fuel costs tend to be lower than those for fossil fuel cars. EVs have fewer moving parts and fluids, which means they require less servicing and repairs. They also run on electricity, which is cheaper and cleaner than fossil derived fuels. However, traditional cars have lower upfront costs and more financing options than EVs. They also have a higher resale value and more availability than EVs, as they are more common and therefore familiar to buyers.
Environmental impact: EVs are more environmentally friendly than traditional cars, as they do not emit greenhouse gases or pollutants that contribute to air quality problems. They can also use renewable energy sources, such as solar or wind power, to charge their batteries and use fossil derived energy too.
However, EVs are not completely carbon-neutral, as they still depend on the electricity grid, which still uses fossil fuels to generate power. They also produce emissions during their manufacture and disposal processes.
Traditional cars, on the other hand, are a major source of carbon emissions and environmental damage, as they burn fossil fuels and release harmful substances into the atmosphere such as carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide. They also consume natural resources and create waste during their production and operation.
Fossil fuels generate power for the electric vehicle
As the EV population grows, so too will the energy requirement – and it will most likely be met moreso by fossil fuels in the short term as well as by renewables.
According to various sources, electric cars are generally cheaper to run than petrol cars in terms of fuel, road tax, maintenance, and insurance. However, the initial purchase price of electric cars is usually higher than petrol cars, so the overall cost of ownership may depend on how long you plan to keep the car and how much you drive it.
Running cost examples of electric cars vs petrol cars – (Spring 2023 data)
According to British Gas – fully charging a typical 60kW electric car at home costs £15.10 and gives you a 200-mile range, whereas filling up a petrol car with a similar range costs over £104. Electric cars also pay zero road tax, while petrol cars pay between £30 to £2,365 per year depending on their CO2 emissions. Electric cars also tend to have lower maintenance and insurance costs than petrol cars.
According to Regit – charging an electric car like the Vauxhall Corsa-E costs roughly £9.50 in electricity for a 200-mile range, while fuelling a petrol car with a similar range costs £41.63 in petrol. Electric cars also save money on road tax, maintenance, and congestion charges compared to petrol cars.
According to Which? – the electric Mini Cooper SE costs £8,000 more to buy than the petrol Mini One, but it costs £2,591 less to run over three years, mainly due to fuel savings. The electric car also pays no road tax or congestion charges, while the petrol car pays £155 and £11.50 per day respectively.
According to Auto Express – the annual running costs of an electric car are 21% less than those of a petrol car, excluding the purchase price. The average annual running cost for an electric car is £1,742, compared to £2,205 for a petrol car.
According to RAC – the annual running costs of an electric car like the Nissan Leaf are £1,233 less than those of a petrol car like the Ford Focus, excluding the purchase price. The electric car costs £1,062 per year to run, while the petrol car costs £2,295
Conclusion
There are many factors that affect the running costs of electric cars vs petrol cars, and different sources may have different assumptions and methods of calculation. However, the general trend is that electric cars are cheaper to run than petrol cars in most cases.
Hydrogen and hybrids are fast becoming future contenders. Watch this space…
No, nor me – never heard of them, but they are extremely important elements needed in microchip manufacturing and China is the world’s largest producer.
Germanium and gallium are two elements that are used in the production of semiconductor chips, which are essential for various electronic devices and technologies. They have different properties and applications, and they are both considered critical materials.
Germanium
Germanium is a metalloid, which means it has properties of both metals and non-metals. It is a shiny, hard, gray-white element that is brittle and can be cut easily with a knife. It has a high melting point of 938°C and a low boiling point of 2830°C. It is mainly obtained as a by-product of zinc production, but it can also be extracted from coal.
Germanium is used in, solar cells, fibre optic cables, infrared lenses light-emitting diodes (LEDs), and transistors. It is also used in some alloys to improve their strength and hardness. Germanium is essential for the defence and renewable energy sectors, as well as for space technologies. It can resist cosmic radiation better than silicon, and it can enhance the performance and efficiency of some semiconductors.
Gallium
Gallium is a metal that has a very low melting point of 29.8°C, which means it can melt in your hand. It is a soft, silvery-white element that can be easily cut with a knife. It has a high boiling point of 2403°C. It is mainly obtained as a by-product of processing bauxite and zinc ores.
Gallium and Germanium considered critical elements required in the production of microchips
Gallium is used in the electronics industry to produce heat-resistant semiconductor wafers that can operate at higher frequencies than silicon-based ones. It is also used in LEDs, solar panels, microwave devices, sensors, and lasers. Gallium is important for the development of new technologies such as electric vehicles, high-end radio communications, and Blu-Ray players. It can also improve the power consumption and reliability of some semiconductors.
China the largest producer
China is the largest producer and exporter of both germanium and gallium, accounting for about 60% and 80% of the global supply. However, China has recently announced new export restrictions on these two elements, requiring special licences for exporters. This move is seen as a response to the western sanctions on China’s access to advanced microchip technology.
The export curbs could affect the global supply chain of semiconductor chips and have implications for various industries and markets
The Bank of England (BoE) announced another increase in its base rate, from 5% to 5.25%, the highest level in over 15 years as of 3rd August 2023. This is the 14th consecutive rise since December 2021, when the BoE started to tighten monetary policy in response to rising inflation.
The Bank said that inflation, which fell to 7.9% in June, remained well above its 2% target and that further action was needed to bring it down. It also cited the risks posed by the global economic situation, especially the conflict in Ukraine and the slowdown in China.
Affect on borrowers
The rate hike will affect millions of borrowers and savers across the UK. Fixed-rate mortgages will not change until the end of their term, but new deals will be hit borrowers hard. Savers may see some benefit from higher interest rates, but only if banks and building societies pass on the increase, which they are slow to do.
Bear in mind that for the past 15 years many have benefitted from ultra low interest rates and cheap money, this is not the ‘norm’. And now, as more ‘normal’ interest rates return it will initially disrupt financial stability for some, and it will be difficult for many for a time. But money has been cheap and mortgages have always been the cheapest way to borrow long term and that is still the case – even if it doesn’t feel like it right now.
Expected
The Bank of England’s decision was widely expected by market analysts, but some have warned that further rate rises could damage the UK economy, which is already showing signs of weakness. House prices are falling, manufacturing activity is contracting and consumer confidence is low.
The prime minister, Rishi Sunak, said he was disappointed that inflation was not falling faster, but claimed that he was making progress and that there was ‘light at the end of the tunnel‘.
And a train too if he isn’t careful!
UK has the highest interest rate in the G7
Interest rates have been increasing across the world in recent months.
The Bank of England’s latest rate hike means the UK now has the highest rates in the G7 – a group of the world’s seven largest so-called ‘advanced’ economies.
That’s higher than France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Canada and the U.S.
If you think the UK’s got it bad, spare a thought for these countries where interest rates are rampant
