
‘Sorry Mr. ‘Fragile’, but I’m afraid your account is closed, as we simply just don’t like you!’


The Bank of England’s forecasting, which has a major impact on the UK economy, is being reviewed and has been criticised.
After the Bank raised interest rates for a 14th time in a row in an effort to slow price rises in Augts 2023, officials have predicted inflation to fall from the current rate of 7.9%, to ‘around 5%‘ by the end of the year. The Bank puts rates up when they are concerned that too much spending will send prices spiralling.
So, in light of its estimating techniques being challenged, how much faith should we put in ‘5% by Christmas’?
For the last two years, the Bank of England has been underestimating the likely rate of inflation in the short term. MPs have been critical of the Bank’s forecast, and its officials have acknowledged they have got some judgements wrong in their forecasting.
The Central Bank has also announced a review into how it makes forecasts.
Mr Baron: Good morning, everyone. In looking at the bank rate going forward, some of us, it is fair to say, have long believed that central banks, including the Bank of England, have been well behind the curve with regard to inflation. As the Chair has said, forecasting has been awry. The Bank of England is one among others that has been too slow in raising interest rates, allowing inflation to mushroom well above the 2% target.
I have put it as strongly as suggesting that it has been a woeful neglect of duty. It is causing real pain out there for people and businesses. We should always remember, as we sit in our, sometimes, white ivory towers, having these debates, that we are talking about people’s lives and businesses that are having to grapple with double-digit inflation and interest rates perhaps going up too quickly. I think that you get it, but it is useful to remind ourselves of that.
Why should the public have confidence in your ability to get it right going forward? What lessons do you think that you have learned? What are you going to do differently? I am not hearing a satisfactory answer to that...
See the full report here – be prepared, it’s an acquired taste and a long read…
However, some critics have argued that the BoE’s forecasts are often too optimistic or pessimistic, and that they fail to capture the impact of major shocks or structural changes in the economy. For example, the BoE was widely criticised for underestimating the severity of the 2008 financial crisis and overestimating the negative effects of Brexit on the economy. Some have also questioned the usefulness of the BoE’s forecasts for guiding monetary policy decisions, as they may be influenced by political or psychological factors.

Therefore, it may be wise to take the BoE’s forecasts with a grain of salt, and not to rely on them too much for making economic or financial decisions. The BoE’s forecasts are not useless, but they are not infallible either. They are one of many sources of information and analysis that can help us understand the state and prospects of the UK economy, but they should not be treated as gospel truth.
The Bank of England has been wrong with too many forecasts, so why bother? Target 2%, actual above 10%!
I rest my case.
This is the famous quote in the novel Animal Farm where it suggests ‘we are all equal, but some are more equal than others’.
Animal Farm is a fable by George Orwell that criticizes the corruption of power and the dangers of totalitarianism.
It appears in the last chapter of the novel, when the pigs have changed the original commandment of ‘All animals are equal‘ to justify their tyranny and privilege over the other animals. It is an example of how the pigs use language to manipulate and deceive the other animals, and how they betray the ideals of the ‘revolution’ that Old Major inspired.
Draw your own conclusions and comaparisons to ‘human’ behaviour…

The UK and other advanced economies are facing a low-growth trap that is hard to escape. This means that the potential growth of the economy, which depends on factors such as productivity, innovation, investment, and labour force, is very low and insufficient to meet the demand and expectations of the people.
The UK economy has been hit by huge global shocks that have disrupted its normal functioning and recovery. These include the Covid-19 pandemic, which caused lockdowns, restrictions, and health crises; the energy crisis, which led to soaring gas prices and supply shortages; and the Brexit transition, which created uncertainty and trade barriers.
The UK economy is also struggling with high inflation, which erodes the purchasing power of consumers and businesses. Inflation is driven by various factors, such as rising energy costs, global supply chain bottlenecks, labour shortages, and pent-up demand.

The Bank of England has raised interest rates to 5.25% as of August 2023 – the highest level since 2008, to curb inflation and maintain price stability. The Bank of England inflation target is 2%.
The chancellor reportedly has vowed to stick to the plan that he believes will bring down inflation and boost growth in the long term.
He said that he will unveil a plan in the autumn statement that will show how the UK can break out of the low-growth trap and become one of the most entrepreneurial economies in the world. He also said that he will not ‘veer around like a shopping trolley‘ and change course in response to short-term pressures.
China has been leading the global electric vehicle (EV) market for years, thanks to its large domestic demand, generous government subsidies, and well-established battery and electronics industry. However, the west is not giving up on the race to electrify the transport sector and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Europe reportedly surpassed China in terms of new EV registrations in 2020, driven by stricter emission regulations, higher consumer awareness, and more diverse and affordable models. The United States also saw a growth in EV sales, despite the Covid-19 pandemic and lower fuel prices. How are western countries and companies now competing with China in the EV market?
Global automakers such are using advanced tech such as driver-assist software to compete in the world’s largest EV market – China. ‘China’s domestic brands are leading the market in the development and implementation of advanced assisted driving systems, capitalizing on their early-entry advantages in the electric and intelligent vehicle sector‘, a recent report suggests.
BofA reportedly said it expects China to still be the world’s largest EV market in 2025, standing at 40%-45% market share.
One of the strategies is to invest more in research and development, innovation, and collaboration. Western automakers are trying to improve the performance, efficiency, and cost of their EVs by developing new technologies and designs, such as advanced batteries, smart and autonomous features, and sustainable materials. They are also partnering with other players in the EV ecosystem, such as battery suppliers, charging network operators, software developers, and regulators, to create synergies and overcome challenges.

Another strategy is to adapt to local market conditions and consumer preferences. Western automakers are aware that China is not a homogeneous market, but rather a complex and dynamic one with different regional characteristics, customer segments, and competitive landscapes. They are tailoring their products and services to meet the specific needs and expectations of Chinese consumers, such as offering more connectivity options, longer driving ranges, and lower prices. They are also leveraging their global brand reputation, quality standards, and customer loyalty to differentiate themselves from local competitors.
A third strategy is to diversify their portfolio and target niche markets. Western automakers are not only focusing on passenger cars, but also exploring other types of EVs, such as commercial vehicles, motorcycles, scooters, and buses. They are also targeting niche markets that have high growth potential or specific demands, such as luxury cars, sports cars, or green cars. By doing so, they can tap into new customer segments and create more opportunities.
The EV market is expected to grow rapidly in the coming years, as more countries and regions adopt policies and measures to support the transition to low-carbon mobility. China will remain a dominant player in the global EV scene, but the west will not lag behind.
Electric vehicles (EVs) are becoming more popular and competitive with traditional cars in terms of performance and cost. Here are some of the main differences and similarities between EVs and traditional cars:
Performance: EVs have a faster acceleration and are more efficient than traditional cars. They can reach high speeds in a short time, thanks to their instant torque rovided by the electric motor. They also have a smoother and quieter ride, as they do not have gears or transmissions. However, traditional cars perform better at high speeds and have a longer driving range than EVs. They can also handle different terrains and weather conditions better than EVs, as they have more power and stability.
Cost: EVs have a higher retail price than traditional cars, on average. But EVs may be a better financial deal for consumers over the long term. That’s because maintenance, repair and fuel costs tend to be lower than those for fossil fuel cars. EVs have fewer moving parts and fluids, which means they require less servicing and repairs. They also run on electricity, which is cheaper and cleaner than fossil derived fuels. However, traditional cars have lower upfront costs and more financing options than EVs. They also have a higher resale value and more availability than EVs, as they are more common and therefore familiar to buyers.
Environmental impact: EVs are more environmentally friendly than traditional cars, as they do not emit greenhouse gases or pollutants that contribute to air quality problems. They can also use renewable energy sources, such as solar or wind power, to charge their batteries and use fossil derived energy too.

However, EVs are not completely carbon-neutral, as they still depend on the electricity grid, which still uses fossil fuels to generate power. They also produce emissions during their manufacture and disposal processes.
Traditional cars, on the other hand, are a major source of carbon emissions and environmental damage, as they burn fossil fuels and release harmful substances into the atmosphere such as carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide. They also consume natural resources and create waste during their production and operation.

As the EV population grows, so too will the energy requirement – and it will most likely be met moreso by fossil fuels in the short term as well as by renewables.
According to various sources, electric cars are generally cheaper to run than petrol cars in terms of fuel, road tax, maintenance, and insurance. However, the initial purchase price of electric cars is usually higher than petrol cars, so the overall cost of ownership may depend on how long you plan to keep the car and how much you drive it.

There are many factors that affect the running costs of electric cars vs petrol cars, and different sources may have different assumptions and methods of calculation. However, the general trend is that electric cars are cheaper to run than petrol cars in most cases.
Hydrogen and hybrids are fast becoming future contenders. Watch this space…
Germanium and gallium are two elements that are used in the production of semiconductor chips, which are essential for various electronic devices and technologies. They have different properties and applications, and they are both considered critical materials.
Germanium is a metalloid, which means it has properties of both metals and non-metals. It is a shiny, hard, gray-white element that is brittle and can be cut easily with a knife. It has a high melting point of 938°C and a low boiling point of 2830°C. It is mainly obtained as a by-product of zinc production, but it can also be extracted from coal.
Germanium is used in, solar cells, fibre optic cables, infrared lenses light-emitting diodes (LEDs), and transistors. It is also used in some alloys to improve their strength and hardness. Germanium is essential for the defence and renewable energy sectors, as well as for space technologies. It can resist cosmic radiation better than silicon, and it can enhance the performance and efficiency of some semiconductors.
Gallium is a metal that has a very low melting point of 29.8°C, which means it can melt in your hand. It is a soft, silvery-white element that can be easily cut with a knife. It has a high boiling point of 2403°C. It is mainly obtained as a by-product of processing bauxite and zinc ores.

Gallium is used in the electronics industry to produce heat-resistant semiconductor wafers that can operate at higher frequencies than silicon-based ones. It is also used in LEDs, solar panels, microwave devices, sensors, and lasers. Gallium is important for the development of new technologies such as electric vehicles, high-end radio communications, and Blu-Ray players. It can also improve the power consumption and reliability of some semiconductors.
China is the largest producer and exporter of both germanium and gallium, accounting for about 60% and 80% of the global supply. However, China has recently announced new export restrictions on these two elements, requiring special licences for exporters. This move is seen as a response to the western sanctions on China’s access to advanced microchip technology.
The export curbs could affect the global supply chain of semiconductor chips and have implications for various industries and markets
The Bank of England (BoE) announced another increase in its base rate, from 5% to 5.25%, the highest level in over 15 years as of 3rd August 2023. This is the 14th consecutive rise since December 2021, when the BoE started to tighten monetary policy in response to rising inflation.
The Bank said that inflation, which fell to 7.9% in June, remained well above its 2% target and that further action was needed to bring it down. It also cited the risks posed by the global economic situation, especially the conflict in Ukraine and the slowdown in China.
The rate hike will affect millions of borrowers and savers across the UK. Fixed-rate mortgages will not change until the end of their term, but new deals will be hit borrowers hard. Savers may see some benefit from higher interest rates, but only if banks and building societies pass on the increase, which they are slow to do.
Bear in mind that for the past 15 years many have benefitted from ultra low interest rates and cheap money, this is not the ‘norm’. And now, as more ‘normal’ interest rates return it will initially disrupt financial stability for some, and it will be difficult for many for a time. But money has been cheap and mortgages have always been the cheapest way to borrow long term and that is still the case – even if it doesn’t feel like it right now.
The Bank of England’s decision was widely expected by market analysts, but some have warned that further rate rises could damage the UK economy, which is already showing signs of weakness. House prices are falling, manufacturing activity is contracting and consumer confidence is low.
The prime minister, Rishi Sunak, said he was disappointed that inflation was not falling faster, but claimed that he was making progress and that there was ‘light at the end of the tunnel‘.
And a train too if he isn’t careful!

Interest rates have been increasing across the world in recent months.
The Bank of England’s latest rate hike means the UK now has the highest rates in the G7 – a group of the world’s seven largest so-called ‘advanced’ economies.
That’s higher than France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Canada and the U.S.
Let’s not talk about inflation, just yet…
‘One minute I’m in work and the next…?’ ‘Is this AI again?’

The day the blue bird flew away – Twitter rebrands as X – Taking Stock

The UK government has announced a plan to issue over 100 new oil and gas licences in the North Sea, as part of its drive to make Britain more energy independent and reduce reliance on imports. The Prime Minister said that even when the UK reaches net zero by 2050, a quarter of its energy needs will still come from oil and gas.
The new licences will be subject to a climate compatibility test and will aim to unlock carbon capture and storage and hydrogen opportunities in the region. The government has also approved two new carbon capture projects in Scotland and the Humber, which are expected to be delivered by 2030.
The move has been criticised by environmental groups, who argue that opening up new fossil fuel projects is incompatible with the UK’s climate goals and will undermine its leadership ahead of the COP26 summit in Glasgow.
They also question the claim that domestic production is cleaner than imports, as the UK’s oil and gas sector is still responsible for significant emissions.
The government has said that it will support the transition of the North Sea industry to low-carbon technologies and protect more than 200,000 jobs in the sector. The UK government has also pledged to invest in renewable energy sources, such as offshore wind, to diversify the UK’s energy mix.

The FEDNOW payment system is a new instant payment infrastructure developed by the Federal Reserve that allows financial institutions of every size across the U.S. to provide safe and efficient instant payment services.
It went live on July 20, 2023 and enables individuals and businesses to send and receive money in near real-time, 24/7/365, through their depository institution accounts.
The service is a flexible, neutral platform that supports a broad variety of instant payments and offers optional features such as fraud prevention tools, request for payment capability, and tools to support payment inquiries.
FedNow is the first new payment rail in the United States since the introduction of the Automated Clearing House (ACH) in the early 1970s.
Is this a possibly a pre-emptive strike to get ahead of international digital currency deployment and set the scene to adopt a digital payment structure of a new ‘crypto coin system’ for the future – the digital dollar?
Profit for the six months ending in June 2023 for British Gas owner Centrica rose to around £1.34bn from £262m a year earlier. The rise in profits came from the company’s nuclear and oil and gas business, rather than from the British Gas energy supply business which performed much worse. The average annual British Gas profit has been £584m in recent years.
However, the profit boom is surprisingly down to a ‘tweak’ to the regulator Ofgem’s energy price cap that allows the supplier to recover elements of the costs of supplying its 10 million customers during the energy crisis.
The supplier’s current profit highs are likely to upset consumer groups that have campaigned against the supplier’s treatment of vulnerable energy customers as record energy market prices forced millions into fuel poverty. Some have called the profit making ‘legalised robbery’, and demanded to bring energy into public ownership.
Centrica plans to raise its interim dividend by around a third but remarks that its underlying profitability will ease significantly in the second half of the year. Energy firms saw their profit margins hit last year when wholesale prices surged in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Wholesale prices also jumped as th UK emerged from the dark cloud Covid as markets undicated that the UK was ill prepared for the enconomic recovery. Brexit blues didn’t help either.
The energy price cap remains £1,000 above its pre-pandemic average, despite oil and natural gas costs easing significantly. It is predicted by industry ‘experts’ to remain around the £2,000 a year average for the coming winter months, maintaining excessive pressure on household budgets.
Centrica chief executive reportedly said that a lot of the firm’s profits were ‘going back into society’.
‘I know it’s difficult to see the word profits, or dividends, or similar words when people are having a tough time. I’m very conscious of this,’ he reportedly said.

‘Bear in mind, over the next couple of years we are expecting to pay a windfall tax of ‘probably‘ well over £600m on our UK gas business off the back of the profits that we’re seeing, so a lot of this is going back into society.’
A business needs to make profits otherwise there is no business. It exits to make a profit and to supply a service or product – but it is about how that business makes its profit, isn’t it?
Token windfall tax temporarily slapped on by the UK government is only payable on UK profits. Oil and gas recovery companies will only pay a tax windfall on UK related profits not on overseas returns!
Profits from fossil fuel recovery invested in greener energy for the future – that’s a topic for another article.
XRP, the native token of the blockchain company Ripple, soared more than 60% on Thursday after a U.S. judge delivered a major victory to the firm in its legal battle with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
The SEC had sued Ripple in December 2020, alleging that it had raised over $1.3 billion through the sale of XRP in an unregistered securities offering. The SEC claimed that XRP was an investment contract that gave buyers the expectation of profits based on Ripple’s efforts.
However, the Judge ruled that XRP was not a security “on its face” and that some aspects of its sale did not violate the federal securities laws.

The judge drew a distinction between the sales of XRP to institutional investors, which she said could constitute investment contracts, and the sales of XRP to the general public on exchanges, which did not.
The judge also denied Ripple’s argument that the SEC lacked jurisdiction over XRP transactions because they were not domestic, and agreed with the SEC that the Howey test, a four-pronged criteria to determine whether an asset is a security, applied to cryptocurrency transactions.
The ruling was welcomed by Ripple and its supporters, who argued that XRP was a utility token that facilitated cross-border payments and did not depend on Ripple’s efforts for its value.
Ripple’s chief legal officer, reportedly tweeted: “A huge win today – as a matter of law – XRP is not a security. Also, a matter of law – sales on exchanges are not securities. Sales by executives are not securities. Other XRP distributions – to developers, charities, and employees- are not securities.”
A lawyer representing over 19,000 XRP holders who intervened in the case, reportedly called on U.S. exchanges to relist XRP in solidarity with the decision.
The ruling also boosted the sentiment in the broader crypto market, as it suggested that the SEC did not have unlimited authority over digital assets and that some tokens could escape the securities classification.

Crypto-related stocks such as Coinbase and crypto-coins such as ADA, HBAR, BITCOIN & ETH surged following the news.
However, the case is not quite over yet, as the SEC said it would continue to review the decision and pursue its claims against Ripple for the sales of XRP to institutional investors.
The SEC also responded to the judge’s ruling by saying that it did not change its position that XRP was a security and that it would seek to prove that Ripple violated the securities laws in certain circumstances.
The outcome of the case could have significant implications for the crypto industry, as it could set a precedent for how other tokens are regulated and how other lawsuits are resolved.
UK house prices have defied expectations by increasing slightly in June 2023 but annual prices fell at the fastest rate since 2009 as soaring mortgage costs took a toll on the market, according to Nationwide Building Society.
The surprise monthly rise of 0.1% reversed a 0.1% fall in May 2023 and surprised economic forecasts of a 0.3% fall! It pushed the average cost of a house in the UK up slightly to £262,239. House prices were 3.5% lower in June 2023 compared with a year earlier, the sharpest rate of decline since 2009.
The sharp increase in borrowing costs is likely to exert a significant drag on near-term housing market activity

It is important to note that the housing market is subject to fluctuations and can be influenced by various factors such as economic conditions, government policies, inflation, interest rate increases and global events.
On 29th. June 2023, Sir Richard Branson’s Virgin Galactic successfully launched its first commercial flight to the edge of space. The flight was carried out by the company’s SpaceShip Two space plane Unity with a special passenger on board: the company’s billionaire founder Richard Branson. Branson was accompanied by three crewmates and two pilots on the historic flight.

The flight took off from New Mexico in the US after being carried into launch position by Virgin Galactic’s carrier plane, Eve. The rocket ship reached an altitude of 53.5 miles above Earth’s surface before gliding back down to land at Spaceport America .
The vehicle flew high over the New Mexico desert on Thursday to enable three Italian astronauts to conduct science experiments in weightless conditions. Sir Richard will now begin sending up the 800 or so space flight customers who’ve bought tickets to ride on Unity.
The 72-minute mission took off from Spaceport America at 08:30 local time (14:30 GMT) and was livestreamed around the world.
Just under an hour into the mission, after reaching an altitude of 13,600m (44,500ft), the carrier plane, Eve, then released Unity to ignite its engine and boost up to the edge of space. At the top of its climb, the rocket ship was at an altitude of 279,00ft (85km), touching the edge of space.

This successful launch marks a major milestone for Virgin Galactic and the space tourism industry as a whole. With this achievement, Virgin Galactic has joined a small club of companies that can ferry paying customers to space, including Elon Musk’s SpaceX and Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin.
Sir Richard Branson’s Virgin Galactic has made history with its successful rocket ship launch on June 29th, 2023. This achievement marks a significant milestone for the space tourism industry and opens up new possibilities for commercial space travel in the future.
This is the Bank Rate set by the Bank of England (BoE), which influences the interest rates that other banks charge borrowers and pay savers. The BoE has raised the Bank Rate 13 times in a row from 0.1% to 5% in a bid to control inflation, which is the rate at which the prices of goods and services increase over time. The BoE has a target of keeping inflation at 2%, but the current inflation rate is 8.7%, which is much higher than the target. This means that the purchasing power of money is decreasing and people have to pay more for the same things.

Promoting the good of the people of the United Kingdom by maintaining monetary and financial stability.

Well, the BoE has clearly done a good job here then with the UK interest rate now at 5%, again… and inflation at 8.7% after peaking at 11.1% in November 2022, a 41 year high! Great job!
And the UK PM said, ‘I always said this would be hard – and clearly it’s got harder over the past few months. I am totally, 100%, on it, and it’s going to be OK‘.
That’s good to know then – it’s going to be OK – so reassuring for borrowers! It’s going to be OK, so don’t worry!
Sorry PM, but that is so weak it’s bordering pathetic. Weren’t you the chancellor too?