Shares of GameStop and AMC surged by approximately 60% in premarket trading on Tuesday 14th May 2024, signalling a potential continuation of gains as the meme stock crazes makes an unwelcome comeback.
Shares of the video game retailer GameStop surged 59% higher in late trade while the movie theatre chain AMC’s shares rose over 64%. Other so-called ‘meme stocks’ were also set to open significantly higher on Tuesday.
GameStop’s shares soared more than 100% and experienced multiple halts due to volatility after Roaring Kitty made a comeback on X. His tweet, a simple image of a man leaning forward in a chair, marked his first post in three years and was enough to spur the ‘wild traders’ into blind action.
Although GME had already begun rallying before, the surge yesterday was extreme and reminiscent of the original meme stock frenzy involving WallStreetBets and Melvin Capital. Ultimately, it closed up 74%. With GME’s short interest at 24% prior to the surge, it’s likely that a significant portion of the movement was due to short-covering, as well as some hedge funds having calls on their shorts.
Trend-following and momentum strategies may have contributed to the rise. Retail investors appear to be growing more bullish and willing to take on greater risks. The surge seems to lack a fundamental basis, as GME’s last earnings report was notably very poor. N
However, not all meme stock involvement is blindly speculative.
But it is just a game to some!
What is a meme stock?
A meme stock refers to the shares of a company that have gained viral popularity due to heightened social following. This social ‘following’ is usually due to activity online, particularly on social media platforms
Mortgage rates are still going up due to expectations that the Bank of England might not cut borrowing costs as much as expected.
Higher-than-expected inflation figures at this point, have led to increased forecasts for UK interest rates, prompting lenders to raise the cost of new mortgage deals.
Those considering purchasing their first home or relocating have probably been monitoring the recent rise in mortgage rates closely. In the past few weeks, numerous lenders have increased the interest rates on new fixed mortgage deals, thus making borrowing costlier. Existing homeowners planning to remortgage this year might have anticipated falling rates, not an upward trend.
So, what’s driving this trend?
Borrowing costs are increasing
Mortgage rates typically reflect the actions of the Bank of England, especially changes to its benchmark interest rates, commonly referred to as the base rate. An increase in the base rate makes borrowing costlier. Swap rates, which are essentially agreements to exchange interest rates between parties for a specified duration, have a considerable impact on fixed-rate mortgage agreements. Consequently, as lenders face higher borrowing costs, fixed-rate mortgages tend to increase. With several recent rises in the base rate, mortgage rates have escalated accordingly.
Lenders’ strategies
Lenders are exercising caution in managing their customer base. The recent increases in rates do not reflect a rapid cycle as observed in the previous two years. Rather, lenders are strategically adjusting their rates. Earlier in the year, a mini price war among lenders led to favorable interest rates for borrowers. Nonetheless, these rates have subsequently increased, with lenders adopting a more conservative approach to pricing. For instance, the average interest rate for a two-year fixed deal rose from 5.55% at the end of January to 5.93% more recently.
Lenders don’t want too many customers
Mortgage brokers emphasize that the recent changes do not signify a new cycle of rapidly increasing rates, such as those experienced over the past two years.
Current mortgage rates remain below the peak of last summer and are not escalating as sharply as they did following the mini-budget of 2022. Nevertheless, some borrowers were expecting rates to consistently decrease throughout the year.
Two more key factors have created the current bump in the road.
Firstly, the global economic outlook has not been as positive as many would have hoped. The U.S. central bank again said it would keep interest rates unchanged, because the rate of rising prices (inflation) had proved more persistent than expected.
Secondly, lenders tend to move in a pack. A mortgage provider wants to set its rates to be competitive, but not too low to be suddenly inundated with custom and unable to cope with the demand.
For home buyers and owners, the financial landscape has shifted slightly; obtaining a mortgage now is somewhat more costly than it was a year ago.
According to Rightmove, the average monthly mortgage payment for a typical first-time buyer’s property, based on a standard five-year fixed, 85% loan-to-value mortgage, has risen to £1,117 from £1,056 the previous year.
Those facing the end of their two-year or, especially, five-year mortgage deals may see their monthly payments increase by hundreds of pounds, as their previous rates could have been below 2%.
Expectations and inflation
Market expectations are crucial. The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) affects mortgage rates through its decisions. The MPC recently indicated that rate cuts would not occur as soon or as frequently as once anticipated, due to persistent inflation and other economic considerations. As a result, mortgage rates have been gradually increasing.
To summarize, the escalation in mortgage rates is attributed to several factors, including higher borrowing costs, the conservative tactics of lenders, and the anticipations of the market. It is crucial for prospective homebuyers and current homeowners to keep a vigilant eye on these trends to make well-informed decisions.
The recent surge of interest in artificial intelligence (AI) has ignited a significant rally in technology stocks.
Firms engaged in AI development, such as semiconductor producers crucial to AI technology and cloud service providers offering the necessary computing infrastructure, have experienced significant returns.
The stock market is abuzz with excitement over artificial intelligence (AI). With technology stocks on the rise, some investors are questioning whether this signifies an AI bubble that could eventually pop.
The AI Rally Early Winners
In recent months, a select group of large U.S. companies has spearheaded advancements. These pioneers include semiconductor manufacturers critical for AI technology and cloud service providers equipped to commercialise it. The financial returns have been remarkable.
Not Your Typical Bubble
Despite the rally, experts argue that we’re not in a traditional bubble.
Market Concentration: The market rally has shown a high level of concentration. A mere 15 companies have contributed to more than 90% of the returns in the S&P 500 Index from January to June. Given that these frontrunners are predominantly large corporations, the equity market has experienced an exceptional concentration of returns.
Valuations and Balance Sheets: Contrary to previous bubbles, such as the internet bubble of 2000, the valuations of today’s leading technology stocks are not overly inflated. These firms have strong balance sheets and deliver significant returns on investment. It’s probable that we are still in the initial phases of a new technological cycle, which may result in continued superior performance.
U.S. vs European Tech: Valuations in the U.S. technology sector have garnered an unusual premium compared to European tech companies. This highlights the significance of the AI narrative, considering that the majority of leading AI companies are based in the U.S.
Future Growth Assumptions: Investors seem to expect much higher future growth for these tech giants, despite rising rates.
The AI Bubble Debate
Although tech stock valuations are high compared to historical standards, this doesn’t automatically indicate a bubble. The present price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the U.S. tech sector is indeed high, but context is key. The top seven US companies at the forefront of the generative AI industry have an average P/E ratio of 25.
Conclusion
The AI market has not reached bubble status as of now, but careful monitoring is essential. Staying vigilant about valuations, market dominance, and growth projections is important as we venture through this dynamic technological terrain, distinguishing genuine potential from mere speculation.
AI is here to stay, and this is just the beginning of a new ever powerful revolution.
The Fed in March 2024, indicated for the markets to expect three interest rate cuts by the end of 2024 – but what if this didn’t happen?
The Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain interest rates in 2024 could have significant implications for the U.S. economy.
Fed cred –credibility would be the first to go!
The cost of borrowing would remain unchanged. This could discourage businesses from taking out loans for expansion or investment, potentially slowing economic growth. Consumers may also be less inclined to take on debt for major purchases, such as homes or cars, which could impact sectors reliant on consumer spending.
Value of the U.S. dollar could strengthen relative to other currencies. A higher interest rate typically attracts foreign investors seeking better returns, increasing demand for the dollar. While a strong dollar can benefit consumers by making imports cheaper, it can hurt exporters whose goods become more expensive for foreign buyers.
The decision could signal the Fed’s confidence in the economy’s health. By not lowering rates, the Fed may be indicating that it believes the economy can withstand higher borrowing costs without slipping into recession. This could boost investor confidence and potentially lead to increased market activity.
However, the decision could also exacerbate wealth inequality. Those with investments tend to benefit from higher interest rates, as they can earn more from savings and bonds. Conversely, those living paycheck to paycheck may not see any immediate benefit and could face higher costs if they need to borrow.
In conclusion, should the Federal Reserve decide to maintain interest rates in 2024 this could have a mixed impact on the U.S. economy.
The effects would likely be felt across various sectors, influencing everything from business investment and consumer spending, credit to the strength of the dollar and wealth inequality. As always, the actual outcome would depend on a multitude of factors, including the overall health of the global economy and domestic fiscal policy decisions.
A serious problem or a technical glitch? I call it the donut theory – where everything is perceived as good until… but it isn’t – when you can’t even buy a donut!
Recent issues highlight a growing problem
Due to a payment acceptance issue, the bakery chain Greggs has closed some of its outlets. Patrons encountered certain branches that were either shut or only accepted cash.
This incident comes after card payment systems failed at Sainsbury’s and Tesco on Saturday 16th March 2024, and at McDonald’s on Friday 15th March 2024, and at many other outlets over recent months. Instore shopping and home deliveries were all affected.
Failures
The recent system failures experienced by major UK retailers like Sainsbury’s, Tesco, and even McDonald’s have indeed raised concerns. While these incidents may seem isolated, they highlight broader issues related to technology infrastructure, reliance on digital systems, and the impact of such failures on businesses and consumers.
Potential implications and issues with system failures. We are so dependent on the ‘system’.
Dependency on Technology
Modern businesses heavily rely on technology for operations, from inventory management to payment processing. When systems fail, it disrupts daily operations, affecting customer satisfaction and revenue.
The recent incidents underscore the need for robust backup systems, redundancy, and thorough testing of software updates.
Customer Experience and Trust
System outages can frustrate customers who rely on these services. Delays in grocery deliveries or inability to pay via contactless methods can lead to dissatisfaction.
Trust in a brand can erode if such incidents occur frequently. Customers may seek alternatives or lose confidence in the retailer’s ability to provide reliable services.
Financial Impact
System failures can result in financial losses due to missed sales, refunds, and operational disruptions.
Companies invest significant resources in maintaining and upgrading their technology infrastructure. Failures can be costly both in terms of immediate losses and long-term reputation damage.
Cybersecurity Concerns
System glitches may raise questions about cybersecurity. While not all incidents are related to security breaches, any disruption can make consumers wary.
Retailers must continuously assess and enhance their security measures to protect customer data and prevent unauthorized access.
Supply Chain Vulnerabilities
Supermarkets are part of complex supply chains. System failures can impact suppliers, logistics, and distribution networks.
Ensuring resilience across the entire supply chain is crucial to prevent cascading effects.
Regulatory Compliance
Retailers must comply with regulations related to data protection, payment processing, and consumer rights. System failures could lead to legal and regulatory challenges.
Recent Cyberattacks and System Failures in the UK
Cyberattacks will all have malicious intent, such as accessing, changing, or destroying sensitive information; extorting money from users via ransomware; or interrupting normal business processes.
The digital age has brought unprecedented convenience and efficiency to our lives. However, it has also introduced new challenges, particularly in the realm of cybersecurity and system reliability. In the UK, several high-profile incidents have underscored these challenges. Here are ten recent serious cyberattacks and system failures that have occurred since 2022.
System Failures
NHS IT Failures: In December 2023, the Health Services Safety Investigations Body (HSSIB) reported that IT failures in the NHS have resulted in patient harm and even deaths. Urgent action is needed to address these issues.
Failing IT Infrastructure in the NHS: A report highlighted that the failing IT infrastructure is undermining safe healthcare in the NHS.
Failed Government IT Project: A failed government IT project to upgrade NHS computer systems in England ended up becoming one of the ‘worst and most expensive contracting fiascos’ in public sector history.
Abandoned NHS Patient Record System: In September 2013, an NHS patient record system, which would have been the world’s largest non-military IT system, was abandoned. The failed centralised e-record system cost the taxpayer over £10 billion.
Cyberattacks
Ransomware Attack on NHS: A ransomware attack on a software supplier hit the NHS across the UK, and there were fears that patient data may have been the target.
Ransomware Attack on Greater Manchester Police: The Greater Manchester police force fell victim to a ransomware hack, exposing details of officers’ name badges such as ranks, photos, and serial numbers.
Ransomware Attack on Royal Mail: The Royal Mail was affected by a ransomware attack.
Ransomware Attack on Capita: Outsourcing firm Capita was hit by a ransomware attack.
Ransomware Attack on Barts Health NHS Trust: The Barts Health NHS trust was affected by a ransomware attack.
Ransomware Attack on Redcar and Cleveland Council: In 2020, Redcar and Cleveland council fell victim to a ransomware attack and was locked out of its systems for almost three weeks.
Cyber-Attack on UK VoIP Providers: An ‘unprecedented’ and coordinated cyber-attack struck multiple UK-based providers of voice over internet protocol (VoIP) services.
Hackney Borough Council Cyber-Attack: Hackney Borough Council was hit by a cyber-attack which led to significant disruption to services and IT systems.
Exchange Email Hack: In March 2021, hundreds of UK companies were compromised as part of a global campaign linked to Chinese hackers.
Hacking of 23andMe Profiles: In December 2023, there was a hack of 6.9 million profiles at genetic test firm 23andMe.
Booking.com Customer Hacking: In November 2023, hackers increased attacks on Booking.com customers
And there have been many more. Whatever the reason; system failures or cyberattacks – the UK needs to seriously update and improve its resources and defences or suffer the serious consequences.
These incidents serve as a stark reminder of the importance of robust cybersecurity measures and reliable IT systems. As we continue to rely more heavily on digital systems, it is crucial that we learn from these incidents and take the necessary steps to prevent similar occurrences in the future.
Conclusion
In summary, while individual incidents may not indicate a systemic crisis, they serve as reminders for businesses and local authorities to invest in robust technology, disaster recovery plans, and proactive risk management. As technology continues to evolve, addressing these challenges becomes even more critical.
Norway has a long history of carbon management. For nearly 30 years, it has captured and reinjected carbon from gas production into seabed formations on the Norwegian continental shelf.
Norway’s government wants to show the world it is possible to safely inject and store carbon waste under the seabed, saying the North Sea could soon become a ‘central storage camp’ for polluting industries across Europe.
Norway’s carbon management projects (Sleipner and Snøhvit) have been in operation since 1996 and 2008, respectively, and are often held up as proof of the technology’s viability. These facilities separate carbon from their respective produced gas, then compress and pipe the carbon and reinject it underground.
Carbon capture storage – nothing new
Offshore carbon capture and storage (CCS) refers to a range of technologies that seek to capture carbon from high-emitting activities, transport it to a storage site and ‘lock’ it away indefinitely under the seabed.
Norway is currently a leading pioneer in carbon capture and storage (CCS), a technology that aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by trapping carbon dioxide from industrial sources and injecting it into underground reservoirs. Norway has been operating CCS projects in the North Sea since 1996, using depleted oil and gas fields as storage sites.
Norway’s ambitious plan to expand CCS is called Project Longship, which involves building a full-scale CCS value system that can serve as a model for other countries and industries. The project consists of two parts: a capture facility in Brevik that will process emissions from a cement factory, and a transport and storage system that will ship the captured CO2 by ship to an offshore terminal and inject it into a permanent storage location in the North Sea.
Project Longship is expected to be completed by 2024, with a reported capacity to store 1.5 million tonnes of CO2 per year. The project has a total cost of 1.7 billion euros, of which the Norwegian government will cover 80%. The project is also supported by the European Union, which sees CCS as a key climate solution.
Norway’s current Energy minister (2004) reportedly said that the project will prove to the world that CCS is possible and necessary to meet the Paris Agreement goals. He also said that the North Sea could become a ‘central storage camp’ for CO2 from other countries and industries, as it has the potential to store up to 1.25 billion tonnes of CO2. That’s a real concern to me.
Long-term safety concerns
However, not everyone is convinced by Norway’s CCS vision. Some critics have raised concerns about the long-term safety and environmental impacts of storing CO2 under the seabed, as well as the ethical and moral implications of using the North Sea as a dumping site for carbon waste.
Norway’s CCS project is a controversial and complex undertaking that will test the feasibility and acceptability of this technology.
Whether it will succeed or fail remains to be seen, but it will certainly have a significant impact on the future of climate action.
Is it safe or wise to pump waste into and hide it under the sea? Humankind doesn’t have a very good track record when it comes to clearing up after itself, does it? Go look at the rubbish in space!
Is it safe or wise to pump waste into and hide it under the sea? Humankind doesn’t have a very good track record when it comes to clearing up after itself, does it? Go look at the rubbish in space!
As tech giant Nvidia soars on hype around artificial intelligence (AI), and as global stock indexes claim record highs, debate has grown about whether the stock market has entered a ‘bubble.’
An AI bubble of boom
We are reminded of the dotcom bubble where investment was rife in anything tech – so, are we now potentially facing a new tech bubble – an AI bubble of boom?
That’s generally seen as a period in which asset prices inflate rapidly, potentially beyond their core value; and risk crashing just as fast.
Other AI stocks are chasing the dream too adding to the hype. However, some are in the slow lane playing catch-up and this may suggest there is much, much more to come.
The likes of AMD, Intel, Amazon, OpenAI, Arm and a myriad of other tech companies big and small have much more AI to bring to the tech table.
Let’s use Nvidia as an example of a potential stock bubble
If we look at the valuation of Nvidia, justifiably it is actually very high, too high even – that’s the first sign of a potential problem, valuation. The second issue is investor positioning – whenever you have a market bubble, investors are very clustered or very concentrated, either in one market or in one sector as a whole.
Nvidia one year chart as of 29th February 2024. Price 791
Nvidia one year chart as of 29th February 2024. Price 791
Sectors
It doesn’t matter which markets you look at – the U.S., Europe or Asia markets – the problem is the same. We now have an historic valuation between the tech sector, the AI sub-sector of the tech sector, and the rest of the market.
Investors are very clustered in this tech sector. However, some leading commentators say of tech that this is not hype – this is real. It most probably is, for now, and with much more to come from the smaller tech and AI companies that have yet to show their true AI value. But all bubbles burst in the end.
Pop!
There is certainly plenty of room for AI to grow – it’s in its infancy – but the question is: ‘how and when will the bubble burst? Because, in my humble opinion, it most certainly will.
We may not see a dramatic market crash like 1999-2000 or 2007/2008, but an investor rotation out of areas of concentration into the broader market will likely happen.
If you look at the bubbles of 1999-2000, and then in 2007/2008, one key characteristic was investor leverage. And we had, whether it was retail investors or institutional investors, a very high level of leverage, and that was either through borrowings or it was through derivatives.
The AI tech boom has legs but there will almost inevitably be a rotation from AI to other sectors – that will then adjust the overvalued AI sector. And it could pullback quite hard.
Water scarcity is a pressing global issue and has far-reaching consequences across various industries. One sector significantly affected is semiconductor manufacturing.
How does water scarcity pose a threat to the production of essential microchips.
Water in Semiconductor Manufacturing
Ultra-pure water is a critical resource in semiconductor fabrication plants (fabs). It is used for cleaning, cooling, and various processing steps during chip production.
Microchips power our devices—computers, smartphones, sensors, and LEDs—all of which rely on water-intensive manufacturing processes.
Global Water Scarcity
Freshwater availability is unevenly distributed worldwide. While oceans contain 97% of water (mostly saline), accessible freshwater constitutes only a small fraction.
Approximately four billion people experience severe water scarcity for at least one month annually, and half a billion face it year-round.
Taiwan’s Drought and Chip Production
Taiwan, a semiconductor manufacturing hub, faces a severe drought. Over 20% of global microchips are produced there.
Water shortages threaten supply chains, potentially impacting chip production.
Cost and Sustainability
Creating fully self-sufficient local supply chains would cost $1 trillion. Such self-reliance could increase semiconductor costs by up to 65%.
Urgent action is needed to ensure sustainable water management in fabs, as chips control everything from cars to appliances.
In conclusion, water scarcity poses a real danger to semiconductor production. Addressing this challenge requires strategic planning, conservation efforts, and global cooperation.
AI a problem or a solution?
Will the problem of water scarcity exacerbate the uneven distribution of water around the world as the rich have easier access to the precious resource.
Will the explosion of AI tech push the imbalance – water is a basic necessity to maintain human life. Will AI have a hand in controlling the distribution of water – even for its own needs?
U.S. stocks have had a good year in 2023, and a great start to 2024 with new record highs being set.
Many major indices have recorded double-digit gains. However, some analysts have warned that the rally may not last, as it has been driven by a few large-cap technology and growth stocks, while many other sectors and regions have lagged behind.
A stock market rally is a broad and rapid rise in share prices, often defined as a 20% increase from a recent low.
This could indicate a lack of breadth and sustainability in the rally, and potentially signal a market pullback, correction or even a crash in the future.
Bull bear, bull?
Chartists with their technical analysis might see a pattern that points to a substantial upside, but they should not get too carried away with their own observations, right now would be a sensible time for markets to find level ground, if only temporarily.
The bullish view is that the ‘laggards’ should catch up the ‘mega cap’ stalwarts once again. The bearish view is that the ‘mega cap’ stocks’ will realise they’ve gone too far and need to ride back to the rest of the market. Too few stocks in the same sector hold the balance of power – go check out the Magnificent 7 or even the old FANG stocks.
Catch-up
Either way, there ought to be an opportunity for underrepresented sectors and industries to gain lost ground.
The question is, will there be a pause to allow laggards to catch-up, or will the mega caps simply continue on their march?
AI ‘trading bots’ are software programs that use artificial intelligence (AI) to analyse market data, generate trading signals, and execute trades automatically.
‘I meant Artificial Intelligence Investing not ‘Alien’ Investing (AI)’
AI trading bots are becoming more popular among investors who want to take advantage of the speed, accuracy, and efficiency of AI technology. But is this a good thing for the future of investing?
Pros
AI ‘trading bots’ could transform the world of investing
Enabling more accessible and affordable trading for everyone, regardless of their experience, knowledge, or capital.
Enhancing the performance and profitability of trading strategies, by optimising entry and exit points, managing risk, and adapting to changing market conditions.
Providing more diverse and innovative trading opportunities, by exploring new markets, assets, and strategies that human traders may overlook or ignore.
Reducing the emotional and psychological biases that often affect human traders, such as fear, greed, overconfidence, and regret.
Cons
AI ‘trading bots’ also pose some challenges and risks
Increasing the complexity and volatility of the markets, by creating feedback loops, amplifying trends, and triggering flash crashes.
Exposing traders to technical glitches, security breaches, and malicious attacks, by relying on software and internet connectivity that may malfunction or be compromised.
Raising ethical and regulatory issues, by creating potential conflicts of interest, information asymmetry, and market manipulation.
Conclusion
AI ‘trading bots’ are not a mystical ‘get rich quick solution’ that can guarantee success in the world of investing. They are tools that require careful selection, evaluation, and supervision by human input and for the human trader to maintain ultimate control.
We should always be aware of the benefits and limitations of AI technology.
Are AI investing trading bots taking over? ‘I meant Artificial Intelligence Investing not ‘Alien’ Investing (AI)’
The world’s five richest men have increased their combined fortune from $405 billion in March 2020 to $869 billion in November 2023, according to a report from Oxfam.
Wealth increased at a rate of $14 million per hour for 5 people
A report by the charity highlighted the wealth of Tesla CEO Elon Musk, LVMH boss Bernard Arnault and family, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, Oracle founder Larry Ellison, and investor Warren Buffett.
Oxfam is calling for restrictions on ‘corporate power’ to reduce the massive inequality between the super-rich and the rest of society. Two of the suggestions to correct the inequality is through capping CEO pay and introducing taxes on permanent wealth and excess profits.
This report was released to coincide with the Davos meeting as the rich and wealthy business leaders and bankers gather.
Oxfam says
Fortunes of five richest men have shot up by 114% since 2020.
Oxfam predicts the world could have its first-ever trillionaire in just a decade while it would take more than two centuries to end poverty.
A billionaire is running or the principal shareholder of 7 out of 10 of the world’s biggest corporations.
148 top corporations made $1.8 trillion in profits, 52% up on 3-year average, and dished out huge payouts to rich shareholders while hundreds of millions faced cuts in real-term pay.
Oxfam urges a new era of public action, including public services, corporate regulation, breaking up monopolies and enacting permanent wealth and excess profit taxes.
The UK Supreme Court has upheld earlier decisions to reject a bid to allow an artificial intelligence to be named as an inventor in a patent application.
Dr Stephen Thaler (an ‘inventor’), had sought to have his AI, called Dabus, recognised as the inventor of a food container and a flashing light beacon. But in 2019, the Intellectual Property Office (IPO) rejected this, saying only a person could be named as an inventor. The decision was then backed by both the High Court and Court of Appeal. The IPO argued, and courts have supported the view, that only ‘persons’ can have patent rights, not Artificial Intelligence.
Now five Supreme Court judges have dismissed a bid to reverse those decisions, concluding that ‘an inventor must be a person’, and that an AI cannot be named as an inventor to secure patent rights.
The judgement does not deal with the issue of whether Dabus did in fact invent the food container and light.
This issue will likely be debated for some time yet – maybe an AI court of the future could decide?
In a significant development that has raised concerns among investors and policymakers worldwide, China’s debt outlook has been downgraded as the country grapples with a slowing economy. This move reflects growing apprehensions about the sustainability of China’s economic growth and its ability to manage its burgeoning debt.
Moody’s issued the warning as it cut its outlook on the government’s debt to negative, from stable. China said it was disappointed by the move, calling the economy resilient. China also reported to have said it is unnecessary for Moody’s to worry about China’s economic growth prospects and fiscal sustainability.
Rapid Expansion
For years, China’s rapid economic expansion has been the engine of global growth, but recent trends indicate a deceleration. The once double-digit growth rates have now tapered, with projections suggesting a further slowdown in the coming years.
China exports
This deceleration is attributed to various factors, including trade tensions, demographic shifts, and a maturing economy.
Downgrade
The downgrade, announced by a prominent credit rating agency recently, underscores the risks associated with China’s increasing debt levels. The country’s total debt, which includes government, household, and corporate debt, has climbed to around 85%* of its GDP. This debt accumulation is partly due to the government’s efforts to stimulate the economy through infrastructure spending and lending to state-owned enterprises.
Property Sector
The property sector, a significant pillar of China’s economy, has also shown signs of strain. High-profile defaults and a cooling housing market have added to the concerns, prompting fears of a ripple effect across the economy. The government’s crackdown on excessive borrowing and speculative investments has further tightened liquidity, impacting developers and homeowners alike.
The burden of debt sits heavy in China’s property sector.
Response
In response to the downgrade, China’s finance ministry has expressed confidence in the country’s economic resilience. Officials argue that the fundamentals of the Chinese economy remain strong, with continued efforts towards high-quality development and structural reforms. They assert that the concerns raised by the credit agencies are overstated and that China’s fiscal position remains robust.
Warning signal
Nevertheless, the downgrade should serve as a warning signal. It highlights the need for careful fiscal management and policy adjustments to navigate the challenges ahead. As the global economy faces uncertainty, the world will be closely watching how China addresses its debt dilemma and maintains its trajectory of growth.
This situation presents a complex puzzle for China’s leadership, balancing the goals of economic stability and sustainable development. The outcome will have far-reaching implications, not just for China but for the entire global economy.
The world awaits to see how China will write the next chapter in its remarkable economic story. If this goes wrong – it will go wrong in a big way.
Update Friday 8th December 2023
China’s top decision-making body of the ruling Communist Party on Friday said that the country’s fiscal policy ‘must be moderately strengthened’ to stimulate economic recovery, according to state-run news outlet.
85%* debt to GDP ratio
China’s debt-to-GDP ratio was recorded at around 77% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product in 2022. This ratio is an important indicator of a country’s economic health, reflecting its ability to pay back its debts. This ratio has been on the rise in recent years, indicating an increase in national debt relative to the GDP. For instance, the ratio was around 23% in 2000 and grew to 34% in 2012, with a significant jump to the current level.
China’s projected debt to GDP ration
Forecasts suggest that China’s debt-to-GDP ratio could reach 104% by 2028
It’s important to note that such figures can vary and should be interpreted within the context of each country’s economic structure and policies.
Santa rally is a term that refers to the tendency of the stock market to rise in the last week of December and the first two days of January.
This is not a guaranteed or consistent pattern, and it may depend on many and various factors that affect the market performance.
However, the stock market trends in December are historically positive, according to some resources.
When it’s cold outside sometimes the market get hot
The term ‘Santa rally’ refers to the tendency of the stock market to rise in the last week of December and the first two days of January.
Some possible explanations for this phenomenon are tax considerations, increased holiday spending, optimism and goodwill, and institutional investors adjusting their portfolios before the year end.
But it can get cold too
However, the stock market performance in December may vary depending on the economic and political conditions of the year. For example, in 2022, the stock market had its worst year since 2008, and many major indices were negative for December. The coronavirus pandemic, the trade war with China, the Brexit uncertainty, and the U.S. presidential election (2020) and problems that followed that election were some of the factors that contributed to the market volatility and decline.
Therefore, the stock momentum going into December 2023 may depend on how the current issues and events are resolved or at least managed. The market for 2023 and right now is in a general upward trend.
Some of the key factors that may influence the market are geo-political issues, the wars between Ukraine and Russia – Israel and Palestine, inflation rates, interest rates, budgets, corporate earnings, fiscal news, central bank interventions and other brewing world tensions.
Impossible to predict, but we can make an educated guess
It is not possible to predict with certainty how the market will behave at this time of year (or any for that matter), but looking at historical data, technical analysis, fundamentals, stock market movements in general and the overall news pattern – it is possible to make a more ‘informed’ decision.
Warning!
Don’t rely on it though – ‘nothing’ is, absolutely ‘NOTHING‘ is definite in the stock market.
Tech execs have expressed concern that the development of artificial intelligence (AI) is concentrated in the hands of too few companies, potentially giving them too much power. OpenAI’s ChatGPT marked the start of what many in the industry have called an AI arms race, as tech giants including Microsoft and Google have sought to develop and launch AI models.
A number of tech execs have said that they feel users have lost control of their data online and that it is being harnessed by technology giants to feed their profits.
The development of artificial intelligence (AI) is concentrated in the hands of too few companies, potentially giving them excessive control over the rapidly evolving technology.
OpenAI’s ChatGPT
An explosion of interest in AI was sparked by OpenAI’s ChatGPT late last year thanks to the novel way in which the chatbot can answer user prompts. Its popularity contributed to the start of what many in the tech industry have called an AI arms race, as tech giants including Microsoft and Google seek to develop and launch their own artificial intelligence models. These require huge amounts of computing power as they are trained on massive amounts of data.
Meredith Whittaker reportedly said of large tech companies and the current deployment of AI…
‘Right now, there are only a handful of companies with the resources needed to create these large-scale AI models and deploy them at scale. And we need to recognize that this is giving them inordinate power over our lives and institutions’,Meredith Whittaker, president of encrypted messaging app Signal, is reported to have said. ‘We should really be concerned about, again, a handful of corporations driven by profit and shareholder returns making such socially consequential decisions’.
Whittaker previously spent 13 years at Google but became disillusioned in 2017 when she found out the search giant was working on a controversial contract with the Department of Defence known as Project Maven. Whittaker grew concerned Google’s AI could potentially be used for drone warfare and helped organize a walkout at the company that involved thousands of employees.
‘AI, as we understand it today, is fundamentally a technology that is derivative of centralized corporate power and control’, Whittaker reportedly said. ‘It is built on the concentrated resources that accrued to a handful of large tech corporations, largely based in the U.S. and China via the surveillance advertising business model, which gave them powerful computational infrastructure and huge amounts of data; large markets from which to pull that data; and the ability to process and structure that data in ways useful for creating new technologies.’
In essence, BIG TECH has far too much power in AI technology.
Tim Berners-Lee
The inventor of the web, Tim Berners-Lee, has also raised concerns about the concentration of power among the tech giants. Jimmy Wales, the founder of Wikipedia, says it is the state of social media that is of particular concern right now. On AI, however, he feels that while the technology giants now are leading the way, there is space for disruption.
Big tech and social media giants are inflicting profound damage on our society, and he believes AI could make this worse.
Dame Alison Rose, the former chief executive of NatWest Group, will lose out on £7.6m after she admitted to discussing the closure of Nigel Farage’s bank account with a BBC journalist.
Another word for getting the sack?
She ‘resigned’ from the banking group in July 2023, after the former Ukip leader complained about a BBC report that claimed his accounts with Coutts, a private bank owned by NatWest, were closed for commercial reasons.
Apology
The BBC later apologised and amended its story, saying that it had checked with a senior source, whom Dame Alison later confirmed was herself, that Mr Farage’s accounts were closed because he fell below Coutts’s wealth threshold.
The Information Commissioner’s Office (ICO) initially suggested that Dame Alison had breached data privacy laws by confirming Mr Farage’s banking arrangements, but later issued a formal apology, saying it was ‘incorrect’ and that it had not investigated her.
‘I’m sorry you didn’t get your full pay deal of £10 million – but I guess £2.4 million will help with Christmas this year’.
Her saga reportedly wiped £850m off the value of NatWest Group. The long-term damage to the bank and banking sector likely hasn’t been fully realised yet.
Elon Musk is one of the most influential and visionary leaders in the field of AI.
He has recently shared his views on how AI will eventually create a situation where no job is needed, and how humans will have to find meaning in life.
Disruptive or force for good?
Elon Musk recently reportedly said that AI will have the potential to become the ‘most disruptive force in history’ and that it will be smarter than the smartest human.
He compared AI to a ‘magic genie’ that would grant unlimited wishes to its owners. He also said that AI will be able to do everything, and that people will not need to work for money, but only for personal satisfaction.
‘AI genie is out of the bottle!’
This is a very optimistic and futuristic vision of AI, but it also raises some important questions and challenges.
How will humans cope with the loss of work and purpose?
How will society and economy function without jobs and income?
How will humans ensure that AI is aligned with their values and interests?
How will humans prevent AI from becoming a threat or a tyrant?
UK AI summit
These are some of the issues that were discussed at the AI Safety Summit 2023 at Bletchley Park in England, where world leaders agreed to a global communique on AI that recognized the potential risks associated with AI.
The summit was attended by, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris and other tech and business executives, including Elon Musk himself.
Benefit or a disaster waiting to happen?
AI is a powerful technology that can bring many benefits and opportunities to humanity, but it also requires careful and responsible development and regulation. It can bring ‘disaster’ too if not managed constructively.
It is hoped humans and AI can coexist peacefully and harmoniously in the future.
There is some evidence that AI could create the next financial crisis, according to some experts and regulators.
AI scenarios
AI could increase the complexity and opacity of financial markets, making it harder to monitor and prevent systemic risks. For example, AI could enable new forms of market manipulation, fraud, or cyberattacks that could destabilize the financial system.
AI could create feedback loops or cascading effects that could amplify shocks and cause contagion across different sectors and regions. For example, AI could trigger flash crashes or sudden liquidity shortages that could spread rapidly and disrupt market functioning.
AI could create new sources of concentration and interdependence that could increase the vulnerability of the financial system. For example, AI could create a reliance on a few dominant data providers, platforms, or models that could fail or malfunction.
AI bots could take control of a stock trading platform or worse a stock exchange.
These are some of the possible scenarios that AI could create the next financial crisis. However, there are many potential benefits and opportunities that AI could bring to the financial sector, such as enhancing efficiency and innovation and even enhancing easier access and personal financial control for millions of investors and savers.
AI could lead to the next financial crash! It could also enhance personal financial control.
If the Israel-Hamas conflict further intensifies, the risks to the global economy are growing, economist Mohamed el-Erian reportedly said Monday 30th October 2023.
The impact on global markets was initially limited, as investors viewed the conflict as contained. However, the prospect of a regional spillover has added to a sense of unease.
‘The longer this conflict goes on, the more likely it will escalate. The higher the risk of escalation, the higher the risk of contagion to the rest of the world in terms of economics and finance’, el-Erian said.
Central banks, 18 months ago got it fundamentally wrong and they got it wrong on many other occasions too.
So why take any notice?
The Fed and other central banks insisted that inflation would be ‘transitory’ – it wasn’t. It reached 7%. That’s 5% above the target of 2%.
Along with the misdiagnosis on prices, Fed officials, according to projections released in March 2022, collectively saw the key interest rate rising to just 2.8% by the end of 2023. It is now 5.25%.
The Great Depression (1929–1939) was an economic bomb that affected countries across the world. It was a period of severe economic depression after a major fall in stock prices in the United States. It began around September 1929 and led to the Wall Street stock market crash on 24th October 1929 (Black Thursday). See Wikipedia article here.
It was the longest, deepest, and most widespread depression of the 20th century.
The Great Depression of 1929
The Great Inflation
The Fed pursued an overly expansionary monetary policy in the 1960s and 1970s, which fueled high inflation and eroded the value of the dollar. The Fed also underestimated the impact of oil shocks and other supply shocks on inflation and was slow to tighten monetary policy to restore price stability. The Fed eventually raised interest rates sharply in the late 1970s and early 1980s, which triggered a severe recession. And in1991 inflation surged to 8.5%.
The Great Recession
The Fed likely contributed to the build-up of financial imbalances and excessive risk-taking in the 2000s, (Dotcom bubble) – by keeping interest rates too low for too long and by failing to adequately supervise and regulate the financial system.
The Fed likely contributed to the build-up of financial imbalances and excessive risk-taking in the 2000s
The Fed also reacted too slowly to the emerging signs of distress in the housing market and the financial sector and was unprepared for the global financial crisis that erupted in 2008. Remember, ‘sub-prime’ lending. We can see signs of similar stress in the U.S. car loan market now.
The Fed and other central banks including the Bank of England initially underestimated the severity and duration of the pandemic and its impact on the economy. The Fed also overestimated the transitory nature of inflation, which surged to a 30-year high in 2021 due to supply chain disruptions, pent-up demand, fiscal stimulus, and base effects. The Fed maintained an ultra-accommodative monetary policy stance for too long, despite mounting evidence of overheating and inflationary pressures.
The Fed finally raised interest rates by 0.75% in December 2022, but faced criticism for being behind the curve and for communicating poorly with the markets.
Transitory inflation
The Fed said inflation would be transitory in 2021 and 2022. The Fed used this term to describe the higher-than-normal prices that emerged during the Covid-19 economic crisis, which were expected to be temporary and not part of a long-term trend. The Fed attributed the inflation surge to factors such as supply chain bottlenecks, pent-up demand, fiscal stimulus, and base effects.
The Fed also said that it would let inflation run above its 2% target for some time, to achieve an average inflation rate of 2% over time. However, as inflation remained high and persistent in 2021 and 2022, the Fed faced criticism for being behind the curve and for communicating poorly with the markets. The Fed eventually raised interest rates.
And now, much of the same. The Fed is again ‘tinkering’ with policy to manage ‘transitory’ inflation and will most probably engineer a recession as a result.
Buying the dip means purchasing an asset, usually a stock, when its price has dropped. The expectation is that the drop is a short-term anomaly, and the asset’s price will soon go back up. It is a strategy that some traders and investors use to take advantage of price fluctuations and profit from market rebounds.
However, buying the dip can also be risky, as there is no guarantee that the price will recover or that the asset is not in a long-term downtrend. Therefore, it is important to do your research, use indicators, and have a risk management plan before buying the dip.
Current market situation and general ‘readout’
The S&P 500 is still ‘buy the dip’ for the next six months,’ some analysts suggest.
In some reports, it is expected that the profit cycle will be positive over the next six months and for data to improve before a consumer-spending led downturn leads to a selloff in U.S. stocks! That’s the ‘general’ readout.
Corporate profit expectations are behind much of that forecast for stocks. Analysts expect profit growth to accelerate over the next two quarters and see the S&P 500 in a range of 4,050 to 4,750. A mild recession in early or middle 2024 should lead to a higher risk premium, pushing the S&P 500 back close to 3,800. This is all conjecture.
Other analysts doubt the earnings uplift potential and anticipate stocks to fall back sooner as PE ratios sit at an already high level.
Take your pick
My view, for what it’s worth, is for stocks to climb for the time being through into the New Year and then to face pullback.
Truth is, no one knows. We can all make educated guesses.
Just watch the markets and be ready for the fall – that is coming for sure!
Utterly shocking eye watering covid fraud related losses incurred through government incompetence.
The UK covid fraud amount is not a single figure, but rather a sum of various losses due to fraud and error across different government schemes and programmes.
List of government failures and waste
£21bn of public money lost in fraud since COVID pandemic began and most will never be recovered.
£34.5m stolen in pandemic scams by more than 6,000 cases of Covid-related fraud and cyber-crime.
£16bn lost due to fraud and error in Covid loans schemes.
£4.5bn in Covid-19 support lost to error and fraud since 2020.
Breathtaking incompetence
These figures are based on the reports and audits by the National Audit Office, the Action Fraud team, the HMRC, and other sources. However, they may not reflect the full extent of the problem, as some fraud cases may not be reported or detected.
The UK government has taken some measures to tackle fraud and recover the losses, such as creating the Public Sector Fraud Authority, the taxpayer protection taskforce, and the Dedicated Card and Payment Crime Unit.
The incompetence shown by the UK government is utterly breathtaking.
The stock market is influenced by many factors, such as economic data, earnings reports, geopolitical events, investor sentiment, and technical indicators.
Some analysts have suggested that the recent sell-off in the market may have created some oversold conditions that could lead to a relief rally or a bounce back in the near future.
Stochastics oscillation
One of the technical indicators that some traders use to identify buy and sell signals is the stochastics oscillator, which measures the momentum of price movements. The stochastics oscillator consists of two lines: the %K line and the %D line.
The %K line shows the current position of the price relative to its high and low range over a certain period of time, usually 14 days. The %D line is a moving average of the %K line, usually a three-day average. When the %K line crosses above the %D line, it is considered a bullish signal, indicating that the price may be reversing from a downtrend to an uptrend.
When the %K line crosses below the %D line, it is considered a bearish signal, indicating that the price may be reversing from an uptrend to a downtrend.
80/20 analysis
The stochastics oscillator also has two levels: 20 and 80. When the %K line falls below 20, it means that the price is oversold, meaning that it has fallen too much and may be due for a rebound. When the %K line rises above 80, it means that the price is overbought, meaning that it has risen too much and may be due for a pullback.
Careful research before buying is paramount to successful trade
The FTSE 100 index, which tracks the performance of 100 large companies listed on the London Stock Exchange, has recently fallen below 20 on the stochastics oscillator, indicating that it may be oversold and ready for a bounce back.
No guarantee
However, this is not a guarantee, as other factors may also affect the market direction. Therefore, it is advisable to use stochastics in conjunction with other tools, such as trend lines, support and resistance levels, moving averages, and other technical indicators.
Additionally, some traders use different settings for the stochastics oscillator, such as changing the time period or the smoothing factor, to suit their own trading style and preferences. Always though, long term investing produces far better results over time as it smooths out the ‘ups and downs’.
In summary, there is no definitive answer to whether the stock market is building up to a major buy signal again right now, as different traders will have different opinions and strategies and views. But one possible way to gauge the market sentiment and momentum is to use the stochastics oscillator, which can provide some clues about potential reversals and opportunities in the market.
Note
This indicator should not be used in isolation, but rather in combination with other tools and analysis – it is just that, a tool. Good well-established companies that have good track records over many many years are a good place to look for long term returns. But even then, do your thorough research first.
So, what next?
The interest-rate/inflation correlation is crucial, because nominal company earnings grow faster when inflation is higher. That does not mean investors should welcome inflation, since higher inflation also means that future years’ earnings must be discounted at a higher rate.
But for many behavioural reasons, investors place greater weight on the negative impact of the greater discount rate than on the higher nominal earnings-growth rate that typically accompanies higher inflation.
Inflation illusion
Economists refer to this investor error as ‘inflation illusion’. Perhaps the seminal study documenting how this error impacts the stock market was conducted by Jay Ritter of the University of Florida and Richard Warr of North Carolina State University. They found that investors systematically undervalue stocks in the presence of high inflation.
Investors will make the same error, in reverse, when inflation and interest rates start to come down. That’s why the foundation of a likely big buy signal is currently being built.
Maybe the buy signal is about to go green for a quick buying opportunity. But be careful, in this environment it can switch again very quickly.
Remember, always do your own research carefully before buying.
It has been suggested Rishi Sunak and Boris Johnson have overseen biggest tax rises since the Second World War
‘Fiscal responsibility’ – code words for ‘cock-up!’
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak have stressed the need for ‘fiscal responsibility’ amid still-high inflation and rising debt costs.
According to the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), by the time of the next general election, taxes will likely have risen to around 37% of national income, which is the highest level since comparable records began in the 1950’s.
The IFS said that this is equivalent to around £3,500 more per household, but it will not be shared equally across income group.
Health and Welfare massive tax burden
The IFS also said that this is not a direct consequence of the pandemic, but rather a result of decisions to increase government spending on health and welfare, and some unwinding of austerity. They predicted that this parliament would mark a decisive and permanent shift to a higher-tax economy.
Other think tanks, such as the Nuffield Foundation, have echoed this view and said that there will be strong pressure in future parliaments to raise taxes further to meet growing demand for public services.
Dissatisfied
Some Conservative MPs have expressed their dissatisfaction with the lack of tax cuts from the government, as they believe that reducing taxes is a key part of the party’s philosophy. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak have stressed the need for fiscal responsibility amid still-high inflation and rising debt costs.
Lurching from one problem to the next
We saw this type of response under George Osborne during the ‘austerity’ period after the financial crisis of 2008. And now again, after Brexit and the pandemic. They were all Conservative governments.
Hunt has reportedly said it would be virtually impossible to cut taxes at the moment – no surprise there then!
Labour has criticised the government for clobbering the general public with tax rises and failing to deliver growth and wages.
Consultants and junior doctors in England are holding their first joint strike in the history of the NHS.
Waiting list
The latest data from NHS England, states the number of people waiting to start routine hospital treatment is at a record high of 7.68 million at the end of July 2023. This is up from 7.57 million in June 2023 and the highest since records began in August 2007.
The waiting list has increased by more than 3 million since February 2020, the last full month before the start of the pandemic. The NHS is facing many different challenges due to the impact of Covid-19 on its services, staff and resources. This data suggests that the waiting list was already at 4 million even before the pandemic hit.
The latest strike action is a major factor now contributing to the NHS waiting list. Some reports suggest that over 850,000 routine operations and procedures have been cancelled so far this year, 2023 due to strike action alone.
Factors that may have contributed to the historical rise in the waiting list
The suspension or reduction of non-urgent care during the peak of the pandemic to free up capacity for Covid-19 patients.
The ongoing infection prevention and control measures that limit the number of patients that can be treated safely in hospitals.
NHS Strike action again, with nearly 8 million waiting in the queue
The staff shortages and burnout that affect the availability and productivity of the workforce.
The increased demand for health services as people seek help for conditions that were delayed or worsened by the pandemic.
Strike action.
The NHS is working hard to tackle the backlog and improve access to care for patients
Increasing funding and capacity for elcare, such as by opening more operating theatres, expanding community services and using the independent sector.
Implementing new models of care, such as virtual consultations, digital triage and shared decision making, to reduce unnecessary referrals and appointments.
Prioritising patients based on clinical urgency and need, rather than waiting time alone, to ensure that those who would benefit most from treatment are seen first.
Supporting staff wellbeing and retention, such as by offering flexible working, training and development opportunities and mental health support.
What about health education?
Government action
The government has also pledged to invest an extra £36 billion over the next three years to help the NHS recover from the pandemic and reform social care. However, some experts have warned that this may not be enough to address the underlying issues that affect the NHS performance and quality, such as workforce planning, public health funding and health inequalities.
How did it get so bad?
Lack of money or management failures? It has to one of these two. Throwing funds at an already badly managed ‘business’ will just amplify the problem allowing even more waste. And as the ‘system’ tackles the problem, more and more people will needlessly continue to suffer.
Fix our health service by fixing the people first!
