The mystery surrounding the origin of Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s origin is one of the most captivating mysteries of the digital age. The cryptocurrency was created in 2008 by an unknown individual or group under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto.

Despite numerous investigations, the true identity of Nakamoto remains shrouded in secrecy.

Story

The story of Bitcoin begins with the release of a whitepaper titled “Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System.” This document outlined a new kind of decentralised digital currency, one that relied on cryptographic principles to ensure security and prevent double-spending.

Nakamoto’s revolutionary vision was to create a financial system free from the control of traditional banks and government interference.

Genesis block

In January 2009, Nakamoto mined the first block of the Bitcoin blockchain, known as the ‘genesis block,’ marking the birth of the cryptocurrency. Over the next couple of years, Nakamoto continued to work on the project, communicating with other developers via email and online forums.

The mystery surrounding the origin of Bitcoin

However, by 2011, Nakamoto had largely stepped away from active involvement in the project, leaving behind a legacy that would forever change the financial landscape.

Speculation

Speculation about Nakamoto’s true identity has been rampant. Some believe Nakamoto is a single, exceptionally talented individual, while others theorise that it could be a group of developers working under a collective pseudonym.

Over the years, various names have been proposed as possible candidates, including renowned cryptographers, developers, and even eccentric entrepreneurs. Yet, none of these theories have been definitively proven, and Nakamoto’s identity remains a closely guarded secret.

Intrigue

The intrigue surrounding Nakamoto is not just a matter of curiosity but also of financial significance. As the creator of Bitcoin, Nakamoto is estimated to own around one million Bitcoins. At current market values, this makes Nakamoto one of the wealthiest individuals in the world.

Bitcoin chart from inception as of 7th November 2024 touching $75,000

However, these Bitcoins have never been moved or spent, adding to the enigma of Nakamoto’s motives and intentions.

Myth?

The myth of Satoshi Nakamoto has taken on a life of its own, becoming a symbol of the power and potential of decentralized technology. The anonymity of Nakamoto also serves as a reminder of the core principles behind Bitcoin: privacy, decentralisation, and freedom from traditional financial systems.

In a world increasingly dominated by surveillance and control, the mystery of Nakamoto provides a compelling counter-narrative, one that continues to inspire and intrigue both technologists and libertarians alike.

In the end, the true identity of Satoshi Nakamoto may never be revealed, and perhaps that is as it should be. The enduring mystery adds to the allure of Bitcoin, ensuring that its origins will forever be a topic of fascination and debate.

November 4, 2024September 12, 2025

Is Switzerland about to experience deflation?

Switzerland may be at risk of entering deflationary territory in 2025 due to the strengthening of the Swiss franc, which is challenging policymakers’ control over price growth.

The Swiss National Bank has lowered interest rates three times this year as of September, attributing the country’s declining inflation rate to the robustness of the safe-haven currency, as well as to falling oil and electricity prices.

Analysts increasingly believe that the Swiss National Bank may need to engage in foreign currency intervention to avert a deflationary scenario.

Furthermore, the central bank has adjusted its forecasts downward, setting the average annual inflation rate for 2024 at 1.2%, down from 1.3%, and anticipating a price growth of 0.6% in 2025, a decrease from the previously forecasted 1.1%.

October 30, 2024September 12, 2025

Elon Musk predicts ‘hardship,’ economic turmoil and a stock market crash if Trump wins

Elon Musk, the billionaire entrepreneur and CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, has recently made headlines in the U.S. with his stark predictions about the potential economic fallout if Donald Trump wins the upcoming presidential election.

This is unusual, as you are more likely to hear these proposals in a crisis, when desperate times demand desperate measures, but not leading up to a presential election and especially not from an opposition vying to take control of the U.S. presidency.

Musk’s comments have sparked widespread debate and concern, as he foresees significant economic turmoil and a stock market crash in the event of a Trump victory.

Musk’s predictions are deep-rooted in his belief that Trump’s proposed economic policies, including drastic cuts to federal spending and mass deportations, will lead to severe short-term economic disruptions.

Musk emphasised the need to reduce government spending to live within the country’s means, even if it involves temporary hardship.

He reportedly argued that such measures are necessary for long-term prosperity but acknowledged that they would likely cause an initial severe overreaction in the economy

Comments Elon Musk made

Billionaire Musk, Trump’s would-be government budget-cutting and ‘efficiency’ adviser, also says there will be “no special cases” and “no exceptions” when he starts slashing federal spending after Trump takes office.

With just a week until the presidential election, Donald Trump’s ally and influential economic adviser Elon Musk is warning people to expect economic chaos, a crashing stock market and financial “hardship” – albeit only “temporary” – if Trump wins.

“We have to reduce spending to live within our means,” Musk said. “That necessarily involves some temporary hardship, but it will ensure long-term prosperity.”

Describing government spending as “a room full of targets,” Musk said: “Like, you can’t miss. Fire in any direction and you’re going to hit a target.”

He reportedly said, “I think once the election takes place we’ll immediately begin looking at where to take the most immediate action.”

And he reportedly added, “obviously a lot of people who are taking advantage of the government are going to be upset about that. I’ll probably need a lot of security.”

“Everyone,” he reportedly said, will be taking a “haircut.”

The Tesla CEO went further and agreed with a supporter who predicted “an initial severe overreaction in the economy” and that “Markets will tumble.”

“Sounds about right,” Musk replied.

Trump has already reportedly said he wants Musk to head up a commission of government efficiency. Trump says the billionaire tech entrepreneur would be his “Secretary of Budget-Cutting,” implying a possible Cabinet position.

Musk himself has described his new role as running a “Department of Government Efficiency,” though he admits the title is an inside joke – the acronym spells DOGE, the name of a cryptocurrency.

Musk speech highlights

One of the key points Musk highlighted is the potential impact of Trump’s policies on the stock market. He agreed with a social media post suggesting that the combination of mass deportations and significant government spending cuts would lead to a sharp decline in market values.

Musk’s agreement with this assessment has raised alarms among investors and economists, who fear that such a scenario could trigger a financial crisis.

Musk’s concerns are not without precedent. The stock market is highly sensitive to political and economic uncertainties, and drastic policy changes can lead to volatility and investor panic.

The prospect of mass deportations, in particular, could disrupt labour markets and consumer spending, further exacerbating economic instability. Additionally, significant cuts to federal spending could lead to job losses and reduced public services, compounding the economic challenges.

Unusual comments leading up to an election

Musk reportedly told supporters that the measures were needed because of the crisis of the skyrocketing federal debt.

This is not the usual picture when a politician and his campaign promise austerity, hardship, deep budget cuts, a likely economic “overreaction” and a slump in the stock market.

You usually hear these things proposed in a crisis, when desperate times supposedly demand desperate measures.

Are desperate times coming, maybe they are already here?

Optimism

Despite the grim outlook, Musk remains optimistic about the long-term benefits of these policies. He believes that once the initial shock subsides, the economy will recover and emerge stronger and more sustainable.

However, this perspective is not universally shared. Many economists argue that the risks associated with such drastic measures outweigh the potential benefits, and that a more balanced approach is needed to address the country’s economic challenges.

Musk’s predictions have also drawn criticism from those who view them as politically motivated. As a prominent supporter of Trump, Musk’s comments have been interpreted by some as an attempt to rally support for the former president’s economic agenda. Critics argue that Musk’s focus on austerity measures and government efficiency overlooks the broader social and economic implications of such policies.

Conclusion

Elon Musk’s predictions of economic hardship and a stock market crash if Trump wins the election have sparked significant debate and concern.

While Musk believes that these measures are necessary for long-term prosperity, the potential short-term disruptions and risks cannot be ignored. As the election approaches, investors and policymakers will be closely watching the developments and preparing for the potential economic fallout.

Whether Musk’s predictions come to pass remains to be seen, but his comments have undoubtedly added to the uncertainty and complexity of the current economic landscape and the never-ending ‘commentary surrounding the U.S. election.

October 4, 2024September 12, 2025

There is a UK budget coming and the new chancellor reportedly needs to raise £20 billion – to fill a ‘black hole’ – how can this be done without upsetting the electorate?

Tax Reforms

Increase in VAT: Adjusting the Value Added Tax (VAT) rate could generate substantial revenue.

Pension Tax Relief: Limiting pension tax relief to the basic rate of income tax could raise around £15 billion per year. Pension tax relief raid.

Windfall Tax: Increasing the windfall tax on the profits of oil and gas companies could also contribute significantly.

General Tax Increases: N.I., Income Tax, Capital Gains Tax, Inheritance Tax,

Public Sector Efficiency

Improving Productivity: Enhancing public sector productivity by just 5% could deliver up to £20 billion in benefits annually.

New Taxes or Levies

Green Taxes: Introducing or increasing taxes on carbon emissions and other environmental levies could help raise funds while promoting sustainability.

Digital Services Tax: Expanding the scope of the digital services tax to cover more online businesses could also be a potential revenue source.

Electric vehicle tax: new tax bands for electric cars

Spending Cuts

Reducing Public Expenditure: Identifying and cutting down on non-essential public spending could help balance the budget.

Economic Growth

Stimulating Growth: Policies aimed at boosting economic growth, such as investing in infrastructure and innovation, could increase tax revenues indirectly by expanding the tax base. But this will take time to fully materialise.

Each of these measures comes with its own set of challenges and implications, so the government would need to carefully consider the economic and social impacts before implementation.

Black hole?

The Chancellor has recently pointed to a ‘black hole’ in the public finances, referencing the recent uncovering of an ‘unbudgeted’ £22bn overspend in the current tax year following her tenure commencement at No. 11 Downing Street in July.

The reality of this newfound deficit is subject to debate. However, given that the Chancellor has ruled out the possibility of borrowing for day-to-day expenses, it seems she very likely she might be compelled to raise taxes to offset these expenditures.

N.I. and Pension raid?

In its last year, the Conservative government cut taxes by £20 billion by reducing the National Insurance rate. Reversing this cut would be a direct way to increase revenue, taking us back to the financial situation before last November.

Currently, many people receive a 40% tax relief on pension contributions but are taxed at 20% when they withdraw. This ‘inconsistency’ could easily become a target for the Chancellor.

Additionally, employers’ National Insurance contributions are not applied to pension contributions or withdrawals, and individuals can even take a tax-free lump sum from their pension after having received tax relief on their contributions.

Understanding the complexities is not necessary to see that a chancellor in search of extra tax revenue may consider pension contributions as a significant source of additional income.

The UK budget is due on: 30th October 2024 – let’s see just by how much UK taxes are increased – because they will be.

September 30, 2024September 12, 2025

Mervyn King’s perspective on interest rates and inflation – too low for too long

Lord Mervyn King, the former Governor of the Bank of England, has been a prominent voice in the ongoing debate about interest rates and inflation. His insights are particularly valuable given his extensive experience in central banking and economic policy

King has been critical of the Bank of England’s approach to interest rates in recent years. He argues that the central bank kept rates too low for too long, which he believes contributed significantly to the current high levels of inflation. According to King, the prolonged period of low interest rates created an environment where inflation could take root and grow unchecked. This, he suggests, was a misstep that central banks around the world are now grappling with.

In his recent comments, King has emphasised the need for a balanced approach to managing inflation. While he acknowledges that raising interest rates is a necessary tool to combat rising prices, he also warns against the potential negative impacts of aggressive rate hikes. King points out that rapid increases in interest rates can stifle economic growth, leading to higher unemployment and other economic challenges.

King’s perspective is that central banks should have acted more decisively when inflation first began to rise. By delaying action, they allowed inflation to become more entrenched, making it harder to control. He advocates for a more proactive stance in the future, where central banks are quicker to adjust interest rates in response to economic indicators.

As policymakers prepare for potential further rate hikes, King’s cautionary advice serves as a reminder of the delicate balance required in monetary policy. His insights underscore the importance of not only addressing inflation but also considering the broader economic implications of interest rate decisions.

In summary, Mervyn King calls for a nuanced approach to interest rates, one that carefully weighs the need to control inflation against the potential economic fallout of higher rates. His views highlight the complexities of monetary policy in today’s economic landscape

September 9, 2024September 12, 2025

Does the stock market reflect the state of the U.S. economy?

The stock market is often seen as a barometer of economic health, but its relationship with the broader U.S. economy is more nuanced than it might appear.

Although there are links between the two, they do not always correlate. The intricacies of this relationship and its implications for investors and the general public are multifaceted.

The stock market – A snapshot of investor sentiment

The stock market is largely a reflection of investor sentiment and their expectations for future economic performance. When investors feel optimistic, stock prices generally increase. On the other hand, when they are pessimistic, stock prices are likely to decrease. Because the market is driven by sentiment, it can react to factors that don’t immediately affect the real economy, like geopolitical events, interest rate changes, or corporate earnings announcements.

Economic indicators: The real economy

The well-being of the U.S. economy is often assessed using various indicators such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, unemployment rates, consumer spending, and inflation. These metrics offer a broader perspective on the economic climate. For example, an expanding GDP coupled with low unemployment usually indicates a robust economy, despite any fluctuations in the stock market.

Divergence between the stock market and the economy

Occasionally, the stock market and the economy may move in different directions. For instance, during the COVID-19 pandemic, the stock market swiftly recovered from an initial downturn due to extraordinary fiscal and monetary stimulus measures. In contrast, the wider economy’s recovery was more protracted, marked by persistent high unemployment and substantial disruptions across numerous industries.

Likewise, the stock market might fall even amidst positive economic indicators. This occurs when investors foresee impending difficulties, such as possible increases in interest rates or geopolitical conflicts, that could affect corporate earnings.

Short-term vs. long-term perspectives

The stock market frequently responds to short-term factors and investor behaviours, such as speculation and market sentiment, leading to volatility that may not align with the underlying economic fundamentals. Conversely, economic indicators generally offer a more long-term perspective on the economy’s health.

The broader impact of the stock market

Although the stock market’s performance can influence the economy via wealth effects and corporate investments, it is not the only indicator of economic vitality. The performance of the stock market is significant to many U.S. citizens, especially those with investments through retirement plans.

However, the real economy, as measured by employment, production, and consumption, often has a more direct impact on people’s daily lives.

Conclusion

In conclusion, although the stock market is linked to the U.S. economy, they do not always move in tandem. The stock market reflects investor sentiment and anticipations for the future, yet it may not fully represent the present economic conditions.

Hence, for a thorough assessment of economic health, it is crucial to evaluate various economic indicators in addition to the performance of the stock market.

September 5, 2024September 12, 2025

Is the ‘eagerly anticipated’ Fed interest rate cut (due in September 2024) – too little too late?

Is the U.S. economy already weaker than the headline data suggests and should the U.S. Federal Reserve already be easing?

In the U.S. recent data (Friday 30th August 2024) showed the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve’s favored measure of inflation, ticked up 0.2% last month, as expected. The data seems to back a smaller rate cut.

The question of whether the economy is weaker than headline data suggests and if the U.S. Federal Reserve should already be easing is complex.

The gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3% in Q2 of 2024, which is a positive indicator. However, the U.S. current-account deficit widened, and personal income and outlays show mixed signals with a slight increase in personal income but a higher increase in personal outlays.

Inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target but well below the pandemic-era peak. These factors suggest that while there are positive aspects to the U.S. economy, there are also challenges that may warrant caution from the Federal Reserve.

Is the market too focused on forecasting the size of any possible upcoming cut? “The question no one has asked yet is why is the policy rate is still at 5.5% when inflation is down to almost 2.5%? It would most likely be an error to do a ‘bigger’ rate cut in this kind of environment with all the uncertainty that the U.S. economy is facing.

Jobs data trends are also an important factor and play a major role in decision making. Company performance and future performance predictions are critical to help judge policy direction.

Decisions on monetary policy easing would be based on a comprehensive analysis of all economic indicators and trends.

If the FED go BIG on a rate cut some say it could be very dangerous and spook the markets.

August 29, 2024September 12, 2025

Company says it can cut data centre energy use by 50% as AI boom places increased strain on power grids

Major technology corporations such as Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta are channelling billions into data centre infrastructures to bolster generative AI, which is causing a spike in energy demand.

Sustainable Metal Cloud has announced that its immersion cooling technology is 28% less expensive to install compared to other liquid-based cooling methods and can cut energy use by up to 50%.

The surge in artificial intelligence has increased the need for more robust processors and the energy to cool data centres.

This presents an opportunity for Sustainable Metal Cloud, which runs ‘sustainable AI factories’ consisting of HyperCubes located in Singapore and Australia.

These HyperCubes house servers equipped with Nvidia processors immersed in a synthetic oil known as polyalphaolefin, which is more effective at dissipating heat than air. The company claims this technology can reduce energy consumption by as much as 50% when compared to the conventional air-cooling systems found in most data centres.

Additionally, the Singapore-based company states that its immersion cooling technology is more cost-effective to install by 28% than other liquid cooling options. The HyperCubes are modular and can be integrated into any data centre, utilising spaces that are currently unoccupied within existing facilities.

What is a Hypercube?

Structure: A hypercube topology connects nodes in a way that each node is connected to others in a manner similar to the geometric hypercube. For example, in a 3-dimensional hypercube (a cube), each node is connected to three other nodes.
Scalability: This structure allows for efficient scaling. As the number of dimensions increases, the number of nodes that can be connected grows exponentially.
Fault Tolerance: Hypercube networks are known for their robustness. If one connection fails, there are multiple alternative paths for data to travel, ensuring reliability.

Benefits in data centres

High Performance: The multiple pathways in a hypercube network reduce latency and increase data transfer speeds, which is crucial for big tech companies handling vast amounts of data.
Efficient Resource Utilisation: The topology allows for better load balancing and resource allocation, optimising the performance of data centres.
Flexibility: Hypercube networks can easily adapt to changes in the network, such as adding or removing nodes, without significant reconfiguration.
Big Tech Companies: Companies like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft likely use hypercube topologies in their data centres to ensure high performance and reliability.
High-Performance Computing (HPC): Hypercube networks are also used in supercomputers and other HPC environments where efficient data transfer is critical.

August 22, 2024September 12, 2025

Microsoft to release Windows Recall AI search feature for testing as soon as October 2024

Microsoft announced on Wednesday 21st August 2024 that it will release the contentious Recall AI search feature for Windows users to test starting in October

Recall captures screenshots of on-screen activity, enabling users to search for previously seen information. Security experts raised immediate concerns about the potential risks of Windows capturing images automatically without user consent. In response, researchers developed open-source software demonstrating how attackers could easily access personal information.

Microsoft addressed these concerns in June 2024, stating that Recall would be disabled by default and promising security improvements for the feature.

While Microsoft has not provided a specific timeline for a wider release, it has introduced a new category of Windows PCs, termed Copilot+ PCs, which meet the system requirements for Recall. These PCs, produced by various manufacturers, are designed to handle AI workloads, and Microsoft has demonstrated Recall operating on these devices.

*Manufacturers are eager to demonstrate that AI models can run on local PCs, offering an alternative to cloud-based servers from companies like OpenAI. Following this trend, Apple has launched MacBooks capable of running AI models, and Microsoft’s latest Surface Pro is also a Copilot+ PC with local AI capabilities.

The timing of Recall’s broader release could be pivotal, as consumer interest in new computers may spike during the holiday season if Microsoft extends Recall to all compatible devices by that time.

*Is this a move away from AI cloud-based operations to some extent? AI tasks can easily be run in the cloud – why do we need an AI enabled device?

August 12, 2024September 12, 2025

Slower and smaller-than-expected rate cuts. A slowing U.S. economy and a potential AI bubble – does this all add up to a coming bear market?

The stock markets mix of toil and trouble is in the cauldron ready for a bear market in 2025, if not before.

Why?

Fed to resist reducing rates to the market’s desired 3.50%.
Profits unlikely from now on to fulfill expectations, because the U.S. economy is slowing.
AI sector is in or close to ‘bubble territory’.
Debt.
Geopolitical concerns.

These concerns are now all combining, and it will likely add-up to a bear market of around 25% in 2025 (this is my best guess).

Remember – make your own decisions and always, always do your own careful research. Seek professional financial advice if in doubt.

RESEARCH! RESEARCH! RESEARCH!

August 8, 2024September 12, 2025

Is the Fed fighting its own shadow?

Has the Fed over-cooked it this time by waiting too long to reduce interest rates?

U.S. stock markets threw a wobbly after the latest employment data and after the Fed delayed its first rate cut… again. September 2024 now looks likely for that first cut – but by how much: 0.25% or as high as 0.50%?

The latest batch of bad news for the U.S. economy has actually became bad news for stocks this time. For too long the ‘bad news’ has been taken as ‘good news’, especially regarding the likelihood of a Fed interest rate cut – and for the markets in general.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is grappling with several challenges, including inflation, interest rates, and the broader U.S. and global economies.

Inflation

The Fed has been trying to control high inflation rates, which have been a significant concern. To combat inflation, the Fed has raised interest rates multiple times. Higher interest rates can help reduce inflation by slowing down borrowing and spending, but they can also slow economic growth.

Interest rates

By increasing interest rates, the Fed aims to make borrowing more expensive, which can help cool down an overheated economy. However, this can also lead to higher costs for consumers and businesses, potentially leading to reduced investment and spending.

Economic growth

The Fed’s policies are a balancing act. While they aim to control inflation, they also need to ensure that the economy doesn’t slow down too much. This balancing act can be challenging, especially when external factors like global economic conditions and geopolitical events come into play.

In essence, the Fed’s efforts to manage these issues can sometimes feel like ‘fighting its own shadow,’ as the consequences of their actions can create new challenges.

The timing of interest rate adjustments by the Federal Reserve is a topic of much debate among economists and policymakers.

Inflation control

The Fed’s primary goal in raising interest rates has been to control inflation. If inflation remains high, the Fed might be cautious about reducing rates too quickly to avoid a resurgence of inflation.

Economic indicators

The Fed closely monitors various economic indicators, such as employment rates, consumer spending, and GDP growth. If these indicators suggest that the economy is still strong, the Fed might delay reducing rates to ensure that inflation is fully under control.

Market reactions

Rapid changes in interest rates can cause volatility in financial markets. The Fed often aims for a gradual approach to avoid sudden shocks to the economy.

Global factors

The Fed also considers global economic conditions. For example, if other major economies are experiencing slow growth or financial instability, the Fed might be more cautious in adjusting rates.

Ultimately, the decision to reduce interest rates involves balancing the need to support economic growth with the risk of reigniting inflation. It’s a complex decision with significant implications for the U.S. and global economies.

Looks like the Fed overcooked it this time – but by how much?

August 5, 2024September 12, 2025

Short-sighted policy U-turn as the UK Labour government cancels £1.3 billion of computing projects

A real set-back for UK AI global ambition

The new Labour government has withdrawn £1.3bn in funding previously pledged by the Conservatives for technology and Artificial Intelligence (AI) initiatives.

This includes £800m allocated for the development of an exascale supercomputer at Edinburgh University and an additional £500m for the AI Research Resource, which provides computing power for AI. These funds were announced less than a year ago.

The Department for Science, Innovation and Technology (DSIT) stated that although the funds were promised by the former administration, they were not included in its budget. The decision has faced criticism from some within the industry.

Another blow for the UK’s homegrown tech sector.

July 8, 2024September 12, 2025

Is the world shackled to debt?

The world is in debt to the tune of $315 trillion, and counting.

$315,000,000,000,000

$315 trillion or $315,000,000,000,000 is a daunting number, it’s massive. In 2024, the global GDP reached just $109.5 trillion, just over a third of the global debt figure.

Perspective

To provide some perspective, with the world population at roughly 8.1 billion, if the debt were distributed evenly, each person would shoulder about $39,000 in debt.

As global debt reaches unprecedented levels, concerns naturally arise about its implications and origins.

Global debt

Global debt includes borrowings by households, businesses, and governments.

Household debt

Household debt, which many are familiar with, comprises mortgages, credit cards, and student loans. At the beginning of 2024, it stood at $59.1 trillion.

Corporate debt

Corporate debt, utilized by businesses for operations and growth, reached $164.5 trillion, with the financial sector contributing $70.4 trillion.

Government debt

Government debt, on the other hand, finances public services and projects without raising taxes. It can be obtained from other nations or institutions like the World Bank and the IMF, or through bond sales, which are essentially promises to pay with interest from the state to investors.

Public debt

Public debt was reported to be $91.4 trillion. While often perceived negatively, debt can be advantageous, supporting individuals in education and homeownership, aiding business expansion, and providing governments with means for economic development, social expenditures, or crisis management.

History

Historical evidence shows that public debt has been around for at least 2000 years, mainly for establishing settlements and financing wars, with governments accruing significant debts from conflicts such as the Napoleonic Wars.

Debt engulfs us all and is here to stay, but at what cost to society?

And who do we owe?

June 20, 2024September 12, 2025

The unloved stock market rally: exploring why many investors are hesitant to embrace this record-breaking run

The unloved rally: A paradox

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have been reaching all-time highs with remarkable frequency, notching nearly thirty record days in 2024, including four in the past week. Despite this stellar performance, a considerable number of investors remain hesitant. Let’s explore the reasons behind this paradox.

Lingering recession fears

The recollection of the 2022 bear market continues to trouble investors. The swift escalation of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve at that time generated widespread uncertainty and apprehension. This has led many investors to maintain a cautious stance, concerned that the past may repeat, even amidst a surging market. Maybe less of us expected the AI driven stock buying frenzy to scale such highs so quickly?

Scepticism

Investors are inherently sceptical. Amidst a relentless market rally, uncertainty emerges. Can this be sustained? Is a correction looming? This scepticism may hinder investors from wholeheartedly participating in a bull market, despite what the statistics indicate.

Emotional baggage

Investment isn’t solely a game of numbers; it’s equally a matter of emotions (although it shouldn’t be). Investors bearing the scars of past losses may find their emotional baggage weighing heavily on their decisions. The fear of experiencing another market crash can cloud rational judgement, leading them to forgo opportunities for potential gains.

The ‘easy money’

The stock market’s significant rise from the lows of 2022 has convinced some that the phase of ‘easy money’ is over. Investors who did not capitalize on the early stages of the rally might think they have missed out, causing hesitation to engage fully. That’s where I am right now – but waiting for a ‘pullback’.

Navigating the dilemma

For individuals caught between caution and the fear of missing out (FOMO), the following strategies could be considered.

Diversification

Distribute your investments among various asset classes. Diversification serves to reduce risk and acts as a safeguard against the unpredictability of the market.

Long-term perspective

Keep in mind that investing is akin to a marathon, not a sprint. It’s important to concentrate on long-term objectives instead of short-term market movements.

Education

Inform yourself about market cycles, historical patterns, and the effects of monetary policy. This should empower more informed decision-making.

Professional advice

Consult a financial advisor who can guide you based on your individual circumstances and risk tolerance.

Conclusion

The current stock market rally, though not widely embraced, offers both opportunities and challenges. Investors are tasked with finding the right balance between exercising caution and capitalizing on potential growth. As the market climbs, it’s essential to be aware of our biases and emotions. Only then can we approach the rally with a more informed viewpoint.

Disclaimer: This article provides general insights and should not be considered personalised financial advice. Always consult a professional before making investment decisions.

Remember: Always do your own diligent and careful research.

RESEARCH! RESEARCH! RESEARCH!

May 14, 2024September 12, 2025

Meme stock craze is back and creates volatile behaviour again!

Shares of GameStop and AMC surged by approximately 60% in premarket trading on Tuesday 14th May 2024, signalling a potential continuation of gains as the meme stock crazes makes an unwelcome comeback.

Shares of the video game retailer GameStop surged 59% higher in late trade while the movie theatre chain AMC’s shares rose over 64%. Other so-called ‘meme stocks’ were also set to open significantly higher on Tuesday.

GameStop’s shares soared more than 100% and experienced multiple halts due to volatility after Roaring Kitty made a comeback on X. His tweet, a simple image of a man leaning forward in a chair, marked his first post in three years and was enough to spur the ‘wild traders’ into blind action.

Although GME had already begun rallying before, the surge yesterday was extreme and reminiscent of the original meme stock frenzy involving WallStreetBets and Melvin Capital. Ultimately, it closed up 74%. With GME’s short interest at 24% prior to the surge, it’s likely that a significant portion of the movement was due to short-covering, as well as some hedge funds having calls on their shorts.

Trend-following and momentum strategies may have contributed to the rise. Retail investors appear to be growing more bullish and willing to take on greater risks. The surge seems to lack a fundamental basis, as GME’s last earnings report was notably very poor. N

However, not all meme stock involvement is blindly speculative.

But it is just a game to some!

What is a meme stock?

A meme stock refers to the shares of a company that have gained viral popularity due to heightened social following. This social ‘following’ is usually due to activity online, particularly on social media platforms

May 9, 2024September 12, 2025

Why are mortgage rates still going up?

Mortgage rates are still going up due to expectations that the Bank of England might not cut borrowing costs as much as expected.

Higher-than-expected inflation figures at this point, have led to increased forecasts for UK interest rates, prompting lenders to raise the cost of new mortgage deals.

Those considering purchasing their first home or relocating have probably been monitoring the recent rise in mortgage rates closely. In the past few weeks, numerous lenders have increased the interest rates on new fixed mortgage deals, thus making borrowing costlier. Existing homeowners planning to remortgage this year might have anticipated falling rates, not an upward trend.

So, what’s driving this trend?

Borrowing costs are increasing

Mortgage rates typically reflect the actions of the Bank of England, especially changes to its benchmark interest rates, commonly referred to as the base rate. An increase in the base rate makes borrowing costlier. Swap rates, which are essentially agreements to exchange interest rates between parties for a specified duration, have a considerable impact on fixed-rate mortgage agreements. Consequently, as lenders face higher borrowing costs, fixed-rate mortgages tend to increase. With several recent rises in the base rate, mortgage rates have escalated accordingly.

Lenders’ strategies

Lenders are exercising caution in managing their customer base. The recent increases in rates do not reflect a rapid cycle as observed in the previous two years. Rather, lenders are strategically adjusting their rates. Earlier in the year, a mini price war among lenders led to favorable interest rates for borrowers. Nonetheless, these rates have subsequently increased, with lenders adopting a more conservative approach to pricing. For instance, the average interest rate for a two-year fixed deal rose from 5.55% at the end of January to 5.93% more recently.

Lenders don’t want too many customers

Mortgage brokers emphasize that the recent changes do not signify a new cycle of rapidly increasing rates, such as those experienced over the past two years.

Current mortgage rates remain below the peak of last summer and are not escalating as sharply as they did following the mini-budget of 2022. Nevertheless, some borrowers were expecting rates to consistently decrease throughout the year.

Two more key factors have created the current bump in the road.

Firstly, the global economic outlook has not been as positive as many would have hoped. The U.S. central bank again said it would keep interest rates unchanged, because the rate of rising prices (inflation) had proved more persistent than expected.
Secondly, lenders tend to move in a pack. A mortgage provider wants to set its rates to be competitive, but not too low to be suddenly inundated with custom and unable to cope with the demand.

For home buyers and owners, the financial landscape has shifted slightly; obtaining a mortgage now is somewhat more costly than it was a year ago.

According to Rightmove, the average monthly mortgage payment for a typical first-time buyer’s property, based on a standard five-year fixed, 85% loan-to-value mortgage, has risen to £1,117 from £1,056 the previous year.

Those facing the end of their two-year or, especially, five-year mortgage deals may see their monthly payments increase by hundreds of pounds, as their previous rates could have been below 2%.

Expectations and inflation

Market expectations are crucial. The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) affects mortgage rates through its decisions. The MPC recently indicated that rate cuts would not occur as soon or as frequently as once anticipated, due to persistent inflation and other economic considerations. As a result, mortgage rates have been gradually increasing.

To summarize, the escalation in mortgage rates is attributed to several factors, including higher borrowing costs, the conservative tactics of lenders, and the anticipations of the market. It is crucial for prospective homebuyers and current homeowners to keep a vigilant eye on these trends to make well-informed decisions.

April 10, 2024September 12, 2025

Is there an AI bubble in the stock market and if so – will it burst any time soon?

The recent surge of interest in artificial intelligence (AI) has ignited a significant rally in technology stocks.

Firms engaged in AI development, such as semiconductor producers crucial to AI technology and cloud service providers offering the necessary computing infrastructure, have experienced significant returns.

The stock market is abuzz with excitement over artificial intelligence (AI). With technology stocks on the rise, some investors are questioning whether this signifies an AI bubble that could eventually pop.

The AI Rally Early Winners

In recent months, a select group of large U.S. companies has spearheaded advancements. These pioneers include semiconductor manufacturers critical for AI technology and cloud service providers equipped to commercialise it. The financial returns have been remarkable.

Not Your Typical Bubble

Despite the rally, experts argue that we’re not in a traditional bubble.

Market Concentration: The market rally has shown a high level of concentration. A mere 15 companies have contributed to more than 90% of the returns in the S&P 500 Index from January to June. Given that these frontrunners are predominantly large corporations, the equity market has experienced an exceptional concentration of returns.
Valuations and Balance Sheets: Contrary to previous bubbles, such as the internet bubble of 2000, the valuations of today’s leading technology stocks are not overly inflated. These firms have strong balance sheets and deliver significant returns on investment. It’s probable that we are still in the initial phases of a new technological cycle, which may result in continued superior performance.
U.S. vs European Tech: Valuations in the U.S. technology sector have garnered an unusual premium compared to European tech companies. This highlights the significance of the AI narrative, considering that the majority of leading AI companies are based in the U.S.
Future Growth Assumptions: Investors seem to expect much higher future growth for these tech giants, despite rising rates.

The AI Bubble Debate

Although tech stock valuations are high compared to historical standards, this doesn’t automatically indicate a bubble. The present price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the U.S. tech sector is indeed high, but context is key. The top seven US companies at the forefront of the generative AI industry have an average P/E ratio of 25.

Conclusion

The AI market has not reached bubble status as of now, but careful monitoring is essential. Staying vigilant about valuations, market dominance, and growth projections is important as we venture through this dynamic technological terrain, distinguishing genuine potential from mere speculation.

AI is here to stay, and this is just the beginning of a new ever powerful revolution.

March 28, 2024September 12, 2025

What if the Federal Reserve decided to hold interest rates in 2024?

The Fed in March 2024, indicated for the markets to expect three interest rate cuts by the end of 2024 – but what if this didn’t happen?

The Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain interest rates in 2024 could have significant implications for the U.S. economy.

Fed cred – credibility would be the first to go!

The cost of borrowing would remain unchanged. This could discourage businesses from taking out loans for expansion or investment, potentially slowing economic growth. Consumers may also be less inclined to take on debt for major purchases, such as homes or cars, which could impact sectors reliant on consumer spending.

Value of the U.S. dollar could strengthen relative to other currencies. A higher interest rate typically attracts foreign investors seeking better returns, increasing demand for the dollar. While a strong dollar can benefit consumers by making imports cheaper, it can hurt exporters whose goods become more expensive for foreign buyers.

The decision could signal the Fed’s confidence in the economy’s health. By not lowering rates, the Fed may be indicating that it believes the economy can withstand higher borrowing costs without slipping into recession. This could boost investor confidence and potentially lead to increased market activity.

However, the decision could also exacerbate wealth inequality. Those with investments tend to benefit from higher interest rates, as they can earn more from savings and bonds. Conversely, those living paycheck to paycheck may not see any immediate benefit and could face higher costs if they need to borrow.

In conclusion, should the Federal Reserve decide to maintain interest rates in 2024 this could have a mixed impact on the U.S. economy.

The effects would likely be felt across various sectors, influencing everything from business investment and consumer spending, credit to the strength of the dollar and wealth inequality. As always, the actual outcome would depend on a multitude of factors, including the overall health of the global economy and domestic fiscal policy decisions.

March 22, 2024September 12, 2025

I can’t even buy a donut! The slow failure of our system or just another… ‘glitch?’

The donut theory

A serious problem or a technical glitch? I call it the donut theory – where everything is perceived as good until… but it isn’t – when you can’t even buy a donut!

Recent issues highlight a growing problem

Due to a payment acceptance issue, the bakery chain Greggs has closed some of its outlets. Patrons encountered certain branches that were either shut or only accepted cash.

This incident comes after card payment systems failed at Sainsbury’s and Tesco on Saturday 16th March 2024, and at McDonald’s on Friday 15th March 2024, and at many other outlets over recent months. Instore shopping and home deliveries were all affected.

Failures

The recent system failures experienced by major UK retailers like Sainsbury’s, Tesco, and even McDonald’s have indeed raised concerns. While these incidents may seem isolated, they highlight broader issues related to technology infrastructure, reliance on digital systems, and the impact of such failures on businesses and consumers.

Potential implications and issues with system failures. We are so dependent on the ‘system’.

Dependency on Technology

Modern businesses heavily rely on technology for operations, from inventory management to payment processing. When systems fail, it disrupts daily operations, affecting customer satisfaction and revenue.

The recent incidents underscore the need for robust backup systems, redundancy, and thorough testing of software updates.

Customer Experience and Trust

System outages can frustrate customers who rely on these services. Delays in grocery deliveries or inability to pay via contactless methods can lead to dissatisfaction.

Trust in a brand can erode if such incidents occur frequently. Customers may seek alternatives or lose confidence in the retailer’s ability to provide reliable services.

Financial Impact

System failures can result in financial losses due to missed sales, refunds, and operational disruptions.

Companies invest significant resources in maintaining and upgrading their technology infrastructure. Failures can be costly both in terms of immediate losses and long-term reputation damage.

Cybersecurity Concerns

System glitches may raise questions about cybersecurity. While not all incidents are related to security breaches, any disruption can make consumers wary.

Retailers must continuously assess and enhance their security measures to protect customer data and prevent unauthorized access.

Supply Chain Vulnerabilities

Supermarkets are part of complex supply chains. System failures can impact suppliers, logistics, and distribution networks.

Ensuring resilience across the entire supply chain is crucial to prevent cascading effects.

Regulatory Compliance

Retailers must comply with regulations related to data protection, payment processing, and consumer rights. System failures could lead to legal and regulatory challenges.

Recent Cyberattacks and System Failures in the UK

Hack attack! — Cyberattacks will all have malicious intent, such as accessing, changing, or destroying sensitive information; extorting money from users via ransomware; or interrupting normal business processes.

The digital age has brought unprecedented convenience and efficiency to our lives. However, it has also introduced new challenges, particularly in the realm of cybersecurity and system reliability. In the UK, several high-profile incidents have underscored these challenges. Here are ten recent serious cyberattacks and system failures that have occurred since 2022.

System Failures

NHS IT Failures: In December 2023, the Health Services Safety Investigations Body (HSSIB) reported that IT failures in the NHS have resulted in patient harm and even deaths. Urgent action is needed to address these issues.
Failing IT Infrastructure in the NHS: A report highlighted that the failing IT infrastructure is undermining safe healthcare in the NHS.
Failed Government IT Project: A failed government IT project to upgrade NHS computer systems in England ended up becoming one of the ‘worst and most expensive contracting fiascos’ in public sector history.
Abandoned NHS Patient Record System: In September 2013, an NHS patient record system, which would have been the world’s largest non-military IT system, was abandoned. The failed centralised e-record system cost the taxpayer over £10 billion.

Cyberattacks

Ransomware Attack on NHS: A ransomware attack on a software supplier hit the NHS across the UK, and there were fears that patient data may have been the target.
Ransomware Attack on Greater Manchester Police: The Greater Manchester police force fell victim to a ransomware hack, exposing details of officers’ name badges such as ranks, photos, and serial numbers.
Ransomware Attack on Royal Mail: The Royal Mail was affected by a ransomware attack.
Ransomware Attack on Capita: Outsourcing firm Capita was hit by a ransomware attack.
Ransomware Attack on Barts Health NHS Trust: The Barts Health NHS trust was affected by a ransomware attack.
Ransomware Attack on Redcar and Cleveland Council: In 2020, Redcar and Cleveland council fell victim to a ransomware attack and was locked out of its systems for almost three weeks.
Cyber-Attack on UK VoIP Providers: An ‘unprecedented’ and coordinated cyber-attack struck multiple UK-based providers of voice over internet protocol (VoIP) services.
Hackney Borough Council Cyber-Attack: Hackney Borough Council was hit by a cyber-attack which led to significant disruption to services and IT systems.
Exchange Email Hack: In March 2021, hundreds of UK companies were compromised as part of a global campaign linked to Chinese hackers.
Hacking of 23andMe Profiles: In December 2023, there was a hack of 6.9 million profiles at genetic test firm 23andMe.
Booking.com Customer Hacking: In November 2023, hackers increased attacks on Booking.com customers

And there have been many more. Whatever the reason; system failures or cyberattacks – the UK needs to seriously update and improve its resources and defences or suffer the serious consequences.

These incidents serve as a stark reminder of the importance of robust cybersecurity measures and reliable IT systems. As we continue to rely more heavily on digital systems, it is crucial that we learn from these incidents and take the necessary steps to prevent similar occurrences in the future.

Conclusion

In summary, while individual incidents may not indicate a systemic crisis, they serve as reminders for businesses and local authorities to invest in robust technology, disaster recovery plans, and proactive risk management. As technology continues to evolve, addressing these challenges becomes even more critical.

When you can’t buy a donut…?

March 4, 2024September 12, 2025

Is it acceptable to use the North Sea as a dumping ground for carbon waste?

Norway has a long history of carbon management. For nearly 30 years, it has captured and reinjected carbon from gas production into seabed formations on the Norwegian continental shelf.

Norway’s government wants to show the world it is possible to safely inject and store carbon waste under the seabed, saying the North Sea could soon become a ‘central storage camp’ for polluting industries across Europe.

Norway’s carbon management projects (Sleipner and Snøhvit) have been in operation since 1996 and 2008, respectively, and are often held up as proof of the technology’s viability. These facilities separate carbon from their respective produced gas, then compress and pipe the carbon and reinject it underground.

Carbon capture storage – nothing new

Offshore carbon capture and storage (CCS) refers to a range of technologies that seek to capture carbon from high-emitting activities, transport it to a storage site and ‘lock’ it away indefinitely under the seabed.

Norway is currently a leading pioneer in carbon capture and storage (CCS), a technology that aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by trapping carbon dioxide from industrial sources and injecting it into underground reservoirs. Norway has been operating CCS projects in the North Sea since 1996, using depleted oil and gas fields as storage sites.

Norway’s ambitious plan to expand CCS is called Project Longship, which involves building a full-scale CCS value system that can serve as a model for other countries and industries. The project consists of two parts: a capture facility in Brevik that will process emissions from a cement factory, and a transport and storage system that will ship the captured CO2 by ship to an offshore terminal and inject it into a permanent storage location in the North Sea.

Project Longship is expected to be completed by 2024, with a reported capacity to store 1.5 million tonnes of CO2 per year. The project has a total cost of 1.7 billion euros, of which the Norwegian government will cover 80%. The project is also supported by the European Union, which sees CCS as a key climate solution.

Norway’s current Energy minister (2004) reportedly said that the project will prove to the world that CCS is possible and necessary to meet the Paris Agreement goals. He also said that the North Sea could become a ‘central storage camp’ for CO2 from other countries and industries, as it has the potential to store up to 1.25 billion tonnes of CO2. That’s a real concern to me.

Long-term safety concerns

However, not everyone is convinced by Norway’s CCS vision. Some critics have raised concerns about the long-term safety and environmental impacts of storing CO2 under the seabed, as well as the ethical and moral implications of using the North Sea as a dumping site for carbon waste.

Norway’s CCS project is a controversial and complex undertaking that will test the feasibility and acceptability of this technology.

Whether it will succeed or fail remains to be seen, but it will certainly have a significant impact on the future of climate action.

Is it safe or wise to pump waste into and hide it under the sea? Humankind doesn’t have a very good track record when it comes to clearing up after itself, does it? Go look at the rubbish in space!

Only time will tell?

March 1, 2024September 12, 2025

Is AI driving a market bubble or is there so much more yet to come?

As tech giant Nvidia soars on hype around artificial intelligence (AI), and as global stock indexes claim record highs, debate has grown about whether the stock market has entered a ‘bubble.’

An AI bubble of boom

We are reminded of the dotcom bubble where investment was rife in anything tech – so, are we now potentially facing a new tech bubble – an AI bubble of boom?

That’s generally seen as a period in which asset prices inflate rapidly, potentially beyond their core value; and risk crashing just as fast.

Other AI stocks are chasing the dream too adding to the hype. However, some are in the slow lane playing catch-up and this may suggest there is much, much more to come.

The likes of AMD, Intel, Amazon, OpenAI, Arm and a myriad of other tech companies big and small have much more AI to bring to the tech table.

Let’s use Nvidia as an example of a potential stock bubble

If we look at the valuation of Nvidia, justifiably it is actually very high, too high even – that’s the first sign of a potential problem, valuation. The second issue is investor positioning – whenever you have a market bubble, investors are very clustered or very concentrated, either in one market or in one sector as a whole.

Nvidia one year chart as of 29th February 2024. Price 791

Sectors

It doesn’t matter which markets you look at – the U.S., Europe or Asia markets – the problem is the same. We now have an historic valuation between the tech sector, the AI sub-sector of the tech sector, and the rest of the market.

Investors are very clustered in this tech sector. However, some leading commentators say of tech that this is not hype – this is real. It most probably is, for now, and with much more to come from the smaller tech and AI companies that have yet to show their true AI value. But all bubbles burst in the end.

Pop!

There is certainly plenty of room for AI to grow – it’s in its infancy – but the question is: ‘how and when will the bubble burst? Because, in my humble opinion, it most certainly will.

We may not see a dramatic market crash like 1999-2000 or 2007/2008, but an investor rotation out of areas of concentration into the broader market will likely happen.

If you look at the bubbles of 1999-2000, and then in 2007/2008, one key characteristic was investor leverage. And we had, whether it was retail investors or institutional investors, a very high level of leverage, and that was either through borrowings or it was through derivatives.

The AI tech boom has legs but there will almost inevitably be a rotation from AI to other sectors – that will then adjust the overvalued AI sector. And it could pullback quite hard.

Be ready!

February 29, 2024September 12, 2025

Water scarcity and its impact on semiconductor production

Water scarcity is a pressing global issue and has far-reaching consequences across various industries. One sector significantly affected is semiconductor manufacturing.

How does water scarcity pose a threat to the production of essential microchips.

Water in Semiconductor Manufacturing

Ultra-pure water is a critical resource in semiconductor fabrication plants (fabs). It is used for cleaning, cooling, and various processing steps during chip production.

Microchips power our devices—computers, smartphones, sensors, and LEDs—all of which rely on water-intensive manufacturing processes.

Global Water Scarcity

Freshwater availability is unevenly distributed worldwide. While oceans contain 97% of water (mostly saline), accessible freshwater constitutes only a small fraction.

Approximately four billion people experience severe water scarcity for at least one month annually, and half a billion face it year-round.

Taiwan’s Drought and Chip Production

Taiwan, a semiconductor manufacturing hub, faces a severe drought. Over 20% of global microchips are produced there.

Water shortages threaten supply chains, potentially impacting chip production.

Cost and Sustainability

Creating fully self-sufficient local supply chains would cost $1 trillion. Such self-reliance could increase semiconductor costs by up to 65%.

Urgent action is needed to ensure sustainable water management in fabs, as chips control everything from cars to appliances.

In conclusion, water scarcity poses a real danger to semiconductor production. Addressing this challenge requires strategic planning, conservation efforts, and global cooperation.

AI a problem or a solution?

Will the problem of water scarcity exacerbate the uneven distribution of water around the world as the rich have easier access to the precious resource.

Will the explosion of AI tech push the imbalance – water is a basic necessity to maintain human life. Will AI have a hand in controlling the distribution of water – even for its own needs?

February 9, 2024September 12, 2025

All hail the rally?

U.S. stocks have had a good year in 2023, and a great start to 2024 with new record highs being set.

Many major indices have recorded double-digit gains. However, some analysts have warned that the rally may not last, as it has been driven by a few large-cap technology and growth stocks, while many other sectors and regions have lagged behind.

A stock market rally is a broad and rapid rise in share prices, often defined as a 20% increase from a recent low.

This could indicate a lack of breadth and sustainability in the rally, and potentially signal a market pullback, correction or even a crash in the future.

Bull bear, bull?

Chartists with their technical analysis might see a pattern that points to a substantial upside, but they should not get too carried away with their own observations, right now would be a sensible time for markets to find level ground, if only temporarily.

The bullish view is that the ‘laggards’ should catch up the ‘mega cap’ stalwarts once again. The bearish view is that the ‘mega cap’ stocks’ will realise they’ve gone too far and need to ride back to the rest of the market. Too few stocks in the same sector hold the balance of power – go check out the Magnificent 7 or even the old FANG stocks.

Catch-up

Either way, there ought to be an opportunity for underrepresented sectors and industries to gain lost ground.

The question is, will there be a pause to allow laggards to catch-up, or will the mega caps simply continue on their march?

February 6, 2024September 12, 2025

Are AI investing trading bots taking over? It’s a little bit alien to me

AI ‘trading bots’ are software programs that use artificial intelligence (AI) to analyse market data, generate trading signals, and execute trades automatically.

‘I meant Artificial Intelligence Investing not ‘Alien’ Investing (AI)’

AI trading bots are becoming more popular among investors who want to take advantage of the speed, accuracy, and efficiency of AI technology. But is this a good thing for the future of investing?

Pros

AI ‘trading bots’ could transform the world of investing

Enabling more accessible and affordable trading for everyone, regardless of their experience, knowledge, or capital.
Enhancing the performance and profitability of trading strategies, by optimising entry and exit points, managing risk, and adapting to changing market conditions.
Providing more diverse and innovative trading opportunities, by exploring new markets, assets, and strategies that human traders may overlook or ignore.
Reducing the emotional and psychological biases that often affect human traders, such as fear, greed, overconfidence, and regret.

Cons

AI ‘trading bots’ also pose some challenges and risks

Increasing the complexity and volatility of the markets, by creating feedback loops, amplifying trends, and triggering flash crashes.
Exposing traders to technical glitches, security breaches, and malicious attacks, by relying on software and internet connectivity that may malfunction or be compromised.
Raising ethical and regulatory issues, by creating potential conflicts of interest, information asymmetry, and market manipulation.

Conclusion

AI ‘trading bots’ are not a mystical ‘get rich quick solution’ that can guarantee success in the world of investing. They are tools that require careful selection, evaluation, and supervision by human input and for the human trader to maintain ultimate control.

We should always be aware of the benefits and limitations of AI technology.

January 16, 2024September 12, 2025

Oxfam report says world’s five richest men have more than doubled their wealth in 3 years

The world’s five richest men have increased their combined fortune from $405 billion in March 2020 to $869 billion in November 2023, according to a report from Oxfam.

Wealth increased at a rate of $14 million per hour for 5 people

A report by the charity highlighted the wealth of Tesla CEO Elon Musk, LVMH boss Bernard Arnault and family, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, Oracle founder Larry Ellison, and investor Warren Buffett.

Oxfam is calling for restrictions on ‘corporate power’ to reduce the massive inequality between the super-rich and the rest of society. Two of the suggestions to correct the inequality is through capping CEO pay and introducing taxes on permanent wealth and excess profits.

This report was released to coincide with the Davos meeting as the rich and wealthy business leaders and bankers gather.

Oxfam says

Fortunes of five richest men have shot up by 114% since 2020.
Oxfam predicts the world could have its first-ever trillionaire in just a decade while it would take more than two centuries to end poverty.
A billionaire is running or the principal shareholder of 7 out of 10 of the world’s biggest corporations.
148 top corporations made $1.8 trillion in profits, 52% up on 3-year average, and dished out huge payouts to rich shareholders while hundreds of millions faced cuts in real-term pay.
Oxfam urges a new era of public action, including public services, corporate regulation, breaking up monopolies and enacting permanent wealth and excess profit taxes.

Full report here

December 27, 2023September 12, 2025

AI cannot patent UK inventions

The UK Supreme Court has upheld earlier decisions to reject a bid to allow an artificial intelligence to be named as an inventor in a patent application.

Dr Stephen Thaler (an ‘inventor’), had sought to have his AI, called Dabus, recognised as the inventor of a food container and a flashing light beacon. But in 2019, the Intellectual Property Office (IPO) rejected this, saying only a person could be named as an inventor. The decision was then backed by both the High Court and Court of Appeal. The IPO argued, and courts have supported the view, that only ‘persons’ can have patent rights, not Artificial Intelligence.

Now five Supreme Court judges have dismissed a bid to reverse those decisions, concluding that ‘an inventor must be a person’, and that an AI cannot be named as an inventor to secure patent rights.

The judgement does not deal with the issue of whether Dabus did in fact invent the food container and light.

This issue will likely be debated for some time yet – maybe an AI court of the future could decide?