Apple improves – with best figures since 2021

Apple accounts Q3

Apple has once again defied expectations, posting a record-breaking $94.04 billion in revenue for its fiscal third quarter ending 28th June 2025.

However, not all segments thrived. iPad revenue dipped to $6.58 billion, and wearables saw a decline to $7.4 billion. Still, Apple’s gross margins expanded to 46.5%, and net profit hit $23.4 billion.

Summary

📈 Record Sales Apple made $94.04 billion this quarter, its best performance since 2021. That’s a 10% jump from last year.

📱 Best-Selling Product iPhones were the star—bringing in $44.58 billion, up over 13%. Macs also did well, with $8.05 billion in sales.

💼 Services Boom Apple’s apps, subscriptions, and digital content made $27.42 billion, a new high.

📉 Weaker Spots iPad sales fell to $6.58 billion, and wearables (like AirPods and Apple Watch) dropped to $7.4 billion.

💰 Profits & Payouts Apple earned $23.43 billion in profit and will pay shareholders a $0.26 dividend on 14th August.

🌍 Big Changes To avoid tariff issues, Apple is shifting production to places like India and Vietnam. It spent $800 million on tariffs this quarter, with more expected.

🧠 Looking Ahead Apple is going big on AI, with over 20 new features and a smarter Siri on the horizon.

Apple one-year share price chart

Apple one-year share price chart

Microsoft joins Nvidia in the $4 trillion Market Cap club

Microdift and Nvidia only two companies in exclusive $4 trillion market cap club

In a landmark moment for the tech industry, Microsoft has officially joined Nvidia in the exclusive $4 trillion market capitalisation club, following a surge in its share price after stellar Q4 earnings.

This accolade achieved on 31st July 2025 marks a dramatic shift in the hierarchy of global tech giants, with Microsoft briefly overtaking Nvidia to become the world’s most valuable company. But for how long?

The rally was fuelled by Microsoft’s aggressive investment in artificial intelligence and cloud infrastructure. Azure, its cloud platform, posted a 39% year-on-year revenue increase, surpassing $75 billion in annual sales.

The company’s Copilot AI tools, now boasting over 100 million monthly active users, have become central to its strategy, embedding generative AI across productivity software, development platforms, and enterprise services.

Microsoft’s transformation from a traditional software provider to an AI-first powerhouse has been swift and strategic. Its partnerships with OpenAI, Meta, and xAI, combined with over $100 billion in planned capital expenditure, signal a long-term commitment to shaping the future of AI utility.

While Nvidia dominates the hardware side of the AI revolution, Microsoft is staking its claim as the platform through which AI is experienced.

This milestone not only redefines Microsoft’s legacy—it redraws the map of pure tech power and reach the company has around the world.

This has been earned over decades of business commitment.

Are investors saying it’s time to move on from tariffs and if so to what effect on the markets?

Tariffs and the Markets

It looks like investor sentiment is shifting away from obsessing over tariffs—though not because they’ve disappeared.

Instead, there’s a growing sense that tariffs may be settling into a predictable range, especially in the U.S., where President Trump signalled a blanket rate of 15–20% for countries lacking specific trade agreements.

Here’s how that’s playing out

🌐 Why Investors Are Moving On

  • Predictability over Panic: With clearer expectations around tariff levels, markets may no longer treat them as wildcards.
  • Muted Market Reaction: The recent U.S.-EU trade deal barely nudged the S&P 500 or European indexes after moving the futures initially, signalling tariffs aren’t the hot trigger they once were.
  • Economists Cooling Expectations: Revisions to tariff impact estimates suggest future trade deals might not generate outsized optimism on Wall Street.

📈 Effects on the Markets

  • Focus Shift: Investors are turning to earnings—particularly from the ‘Magnificent Seven’ tech giants—and macroeconomic data for momentum.
  • Cautious Optimism: While stocks haven’t rallied hard, they’re not dropping either. Traders seem to be waiting for a new catalyst, like U.S. consumer strength or signs of a bull phase in certain indexes.
  • Geopolitical Undercurrents: A new deadline for Russia to reach a peace deal and threats of ‘secondary tariffs’ could still stir volatility, depending on how global partners react.

So, in short tariffs aren’t gone, but they’ve become background noise. Investors are tuning in to the next big signals.

If you’re keeping an eye on retail, tech earnings, or commodity flows, this shift could have ripple effects worth dissecting.

Market moving events, other than tariffs

DateEvent/CatalystMarket Impact Potential
July 30Meta earnings + possible stock split📈 High (tech sentiment)
July 31Fed meeting📈📉 High (rate guidance)
Aug 1U.S.–EU tariff milestone, not flashpoint📉 Moderate (sector recalibration)
July 22U.S. AI Action Plan (released)📈 Unclear (dependent on execution

What is Neocloud?

Neocloud

In tech terms, a neocloud is a new breed of cloud infrastructure purpose-built for AI and high-performance computing (HPC).

Unlike traditional hyperscale cloud providers (like AWS or Azure), neoclouds focus on delivering raw GPU power, low-latency performance, and specialised environments for compute-intensive workloads.

🧠 Key Features of Neoclouds

  • GPU-as-a-Service (GPUaaS): Optimised for training and running large AI models.
  • AI-native architecture: Designed specifically for machine learning, deep learning, and real-time inference.
  • Edge-ready: Supports distributed deployments closer to users for faster response times.
  • Transparent pricing: Often more cost-efficient than hyperscalers for AI workloads.
  • Bare-metal access: Minimal virtualisation for maximum performance.

🏗️ How They Differ from Traditional Clouds

FeatureNeocloudsHyperscale Clouds
FocusAI & HPC workloadsGeneral-purpose services
HardwareGPU-centric, high-density clustersMixed CPU/GPU, broad service range
FlexibilityAgile, workload-specificBroad but less specialised
LatencyUltra-low, edge-optimizedHigher, centralized infrastructure
PricingUsage-based, transparentOften complex, with hidden costs

🚀 Who Uses Neoclouds?

  • AI startups building chatbots, LLMs, or recommendation engines
  • Research labs running simulations or genomics
  • Media studios doing real-time rendering or VFX
  • Enterprises deploying private AI models or edge computing

Think of neoclouds as specialist GPU clouds—like a high-performance race car compared to a family SUV.

Both get you places, but one’s built for speed, precision, and specialised terrain.

A hidden UK GEM?

A UK GEM

RELX plc stands today as one of the UK’s most quietly formidable global enterprises, a testament to strategic reinvention and technological foresight.

Originally formed in 1993 from the merger of Reed International and Dutch giant Elsevier NV, RELX evolved from a conventional publishing conglomerate into a data-driven, analytics-centric powerhouse.

Reed owned IPC Magazines and published UK comics from 1950’s through to the 1980’s.

The company’s history lies in print—academic journals, legal texts, and trade publications—but its future is unequivocally digital.

Today, RELX operates across four primary segments: Risk, Legal, Scientific & Medical, and Exhibitions. Through subsidiaries such as LexisNexis and Elsevier, it delivers critical decision-support tools to professionals in law, healthcare, insurance, and research.

Notably, more than 80% of its revenue is now derived from digital and data-based services, reflecting both market demand and RELX’s methodical transition away from legacy publishing models.

Its financials underscore this shift. In 2024, RELX reported revenues of *£9.43 billion and net income of *£1.93 billion, with strong margins driven by scalable analytics platforms.

The company currently ranks as the seventh-largest member of the FTSE 100 and reportedly boasts operations in over *180 countries.

RELX YTD chart (GBP)

RELX YTD chart (GBP)

AI impact

The incorporation of artificial intelligence (AI) has been pivotal. From intelligent legal drafting in Lexis+ AI to conversational medical search via Elsevier’s ClinicalKey AI, RELX deploys AI not just as a productivity tool but as a cornerstone of value creation.

Its proprietary data reserves — legal databases, scientific journals, and risk profiles — offer an unmatched training ground for high-integrity, professional-grade AI models.

However, success in AI comes with responsibility. RELX maintains rigorous governance frameworks to ensure responsible usage, mitigate bias, and comply with evolving privacy laws.

The company faces ongoing scrutiny in high-stakes domains like law and healthcare, but its approach to retrieval-augmented generation and citation-based validation reflects a commitment to safety and transparency.

Looking ahead, RELX is well-positioned to lead the next wave of enterprise AI adoption. As regulatory frameworks tighten and clients demand greater interpretability, RELX’s blend of curated data, ethical oversight, and domain-specific AI could prove a defining advantage.

With planned buybacks of *£1.5 billion and continuing acquisitions in analytics, the company appears both financially robust and strategically attuned to future demands.

SegmentAI ImpactNotes
Legal (LexisNexis)✅ TransformativeLexis+ AI enables intelligent drafting, summarisation, and conversational legal search—boosting lawyer productivity and accuracy.
Risk & Analytics✅ Enhanced PrecisionAI tools help insurers and banks detect fraud, assess risk, and comply with regulations more efficiently.
Scientific & Medical (Elsevier)✅ Smarter ResearchScopus AI and ClinicalKey AI offer summarised insights and conversational search for researchers and clinicians.
Exhibitions (RX)⚖️ Mixed but improvingAI helps with attendee targeting and logistics, but this segment is less data-driven and more event-dependent. Still, it’s recovering post-pandemic.

Summary

🧠 What RELX Does

RELX provides information-based analytics and decision tools across four major segments:

  • Risk: LexisNexis Risk Solutions helps insurers, banks, and governments assess fraud, identity, and compliance risks.
  • Scientific, Technical & Medical (STM): Elsevier delivers research platforms like ScienceDirect and Scopus, serving academics and healthcare professionals.
  • Legal: LexisNexis Legal & Professional offers legal research, analytics, and workflow tools.
  • Exhibitions: RX Global runs major trade shows like New York Comic Con and the London Book Fair.

📈 Financial Highlights

  • 2024 Revenue: £9.43 billion, up 3% year-on-year*
  • Net Income: £1.93 billion*
  • EBITDA Margin: ~39.5%—a sign of strong operational efficiency*
  • Digital Dominance: Over 80% of revenue now comes from electronic and data-driven product*

🧬 AI & Innovation

RELX has leaned heavily into AI-powered analytics, especially in legal and risk segments. JPMorgan recently upgraded its legal growth forecast to 10% annually, citing the transformative potential of Agentic AI and tools like Protégé.

🏛️ Market Position

  • FTSE 100 Rank: 7th largest company by market cap
  • Global Reach: Serves clients in 180+ countries*
  • Stock Performance: Up ~120% over five years*

🧩 Strategic Moves

  • Buybacks: £1.5 billion planned for 2025, with £150 million already completed*
  • Recent Acquisitions: Two in H1 2025 totaling £61 million, focused on expanding analytics capabilities*.

In summary, RELX exemplifies the art of reinvention—rooted in publishing heritage, powered by digital innovation, and poised to shape the ethical evolution of AI across critical professional fields.

*Unverified

Wall Street surges: S&P 500 breaks 6300 as tech optimism outpaces tariff tensions

Record highs!

The S&P 500 closed above 6,300 for the first time in history on Monday 21st July 2025, while the Nasdaq Composite notched yet another record, finishing at 20,974.17.

Investor enthusiasm for upcoming tech earnings has eclipsed broader concerns over looming global tariffs, fuelling a rally in major indexes.

Despite marginal losses in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 0.38% while the S&P 500 climbed 0.14%, buoyed by gains in heavyweights like Meta Platforms, Alphabet, and Amazon.

With over 60 S&P 500 companies having reported so far this earnings season, more than 85% have exceeded expectations, according to FactSet.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp at new record highs 21st July 2025

redo the charts side by side and correct the S&P 500 value
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp at new record highs 21st July 2025

Alphabet shares advanced over 2% ahead of Wednesday’s results, and Tesla headlines the ‘Magnificent Seven’ group expected to drive the bulk of earnings growth this quarter. And not necessarily for the right reason.

Analysts reportedly expect the group to deliver 14% growth year-on-year, far outpacing the remaining S&P constituents’ average of 3.4%.

S&P 500

Despite tariff tensions simmering — with the U.S. setting a 1st August deadline for levy enforcement — investor sentiment remains bullish.

Bank of America estimates Q2 earnings are tracking a 5% annual increase, suggesting resilience amid geopolitical headwinds.

Strategists warn of potential volatility, as earnings surprises or policy shifts could spark swift market reactions.

Still, some analysts see space for further upside, projecting a potential S&P climb to 6,600 before any meaningful pullback.

As the tech titans prepare to report, all eyes are on whether optimism can keep the rally alive — or if tariffs will return to centre stage.

From FANG stocks, MAG 7 stocks to AI – the tech titans just keep giving.

But when will it overload?

Trump’s self-imposed August tariff deadline looms

U.S. Tariffs

Since a little after Donald Trump’s declaration of ‘Liberation Day’ and renewed tariff threats, global markets have shown a remarkable degree of indifference.

While equities dipped briefly in April, investors appear increasingly unshaken by the looming 1st August deadline.

Several factors underpin this resilience. First, market participants have grown accustomed to political brinkmanship.

Traders now view tariff announcements as bargaining tools rather than certainties, adopting a wait-and-see approach before pricing in long-term consequences.

The episodic nature of past trade spats has dulled their impact, especially without immediate legislative backing and with Trump often pulling back last minute or extending deadlines.

The media have labelled this … TACO!

TACOTrump Always Chickens Out: Definition – A satirical acronym coined by financial commentators to describe Donald Trump’s predictable pattern of announcing aggressive tariffs, then softening or delaying them under market pressure.

Second, economic fundamentals remain firm. Corporate earnings continue to surpass expectations, and key indicators—such as job growth and consumer spending—suggest sustained momentum in major economies.

As a result, the tariff narrative has taken a back seat to earnings reports and central bank manoeuvres.

Third, diversification strategies have matured since the 2018–2020 trade wars. Many multinationals have already restructured supply chains, buffered risk through regional trade agreements, and hedged exposure to volatile sectors.

This strategic evolution makes markets less sensitive to unilateral tariff threats, especially if they lack multilateral support.

Analysts note that Trump’s rhetoric still carries weight politically, but the financial world operates on evidence, not headlines. As one strategist quipped, ‘Markets don’t trade on bluster; they trade on impact’.

That’s all very well – but markets can be fickle and reflect sentiment too.

With investors focused on earnings and monetary policy, tariff drama may remain background noise—unless policy becomes policy.

Until then, the markets seem content to roll with it!

S&P 500 hits record high amid AI tech frenzy!

S&P 500 at new all-time high!

The S&P 500 soared to a new all-time closing high of 6297 on Thursday 17th July 2025, lifted by strong earnings from AI chipmakers and upbeat economic data.

Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon led the charge, as enthusiasm around artificial intelligence and cloud infrastructure continued to fuel investor appetite.

The rally was supported by June 2025 retail sales, which exceeded expectations, and growing speculation that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in September 2025.

The index rose around 0.54% on the day, marking its fifth straight gain and pushing its year-to-date return above 13%.

S&P 500 one-year chart

S&P 500 one-year chart

Meanwhile, the VIX volatility index is around 17 slightly elevated but still well below its long-term average.

This suggests a modest uptick in hedging activity, though overall market sentiment remains confident.

VIX YTD chart

VIX YTD chart

With inflation cooling and tech earnings impressing, the S&P’s breakout sets the stage for a potentially exuberant summer — though analysts caution that valuations are stretched and a pullback could emerge if momentum fades.

A pullback first is likely.

Bitcoin surges to record high as investors pause for breath to take profits

Bitcoin hits new high!

Bitcoin hit a new milestone on 14th July 2025, reaching an unprecedented $123,091.61.

This marks the digital currency’s highest level to date, building on months of momentum driven by institutional buying, regulatory optimism, and a flood of capital from exchange-traded funds.

The rally comes amid growing confidence in cryptocurrencies as lawmakers in Washington debate the GENIUS Act, a pivotal piece of legislation that could cement Bitcoin’s role in mainstream finance. Market sentiment has been overwhelmingly bullish, with analysts citing a ‘flight to digital safety’ as global uncertainties mount.

However, since the peak, Bitcoin’s ascent has shown signs of levelling off. Profit-taking among investors appears to have introduced temporary friction, prompting a modest dip in trading volumes.

Several large wallets moved substantial holdings to exchanges, hinting at short-term sell-offs. Yet the decline has been measured, and there’s little indication of widespread panic.

Some traders interpret this plateau not as weakness, but consolidation.

With volatility baked into its DNA, Bitcoin continues to command attention from both seasoned investors and curious newcomers.

Whether it resumes its march toward $125,000 or cools off remains to be seen—but for now, the market is watching, waiting, and calculating its next move.

Five-day Bitcoin ascent

DateOpening PriceClosing PriceDaily HighDaily Low
11 July$115,909.08$117,579.19$117,901.00$115,909.08
12 July$117,579.19$117,460.30$118,672.53$117,460.30
13 July$117,460.30$118,908.51$118,908.51$117,460.30
14 July$118,908.51$122,584.00$123,091.61$118,908.51
15 July$122,584.00$121,902.00$122,493.00$121,902.00
Five-day Bitcoin ascent

Markets appear to dismiss Trump’s tariff threats – but will this prove to be unwise?

Super Chicken

Despite President Donald Trump’s renewed push for sweeping tariffs, global markets appear unfazed.

Trump issued letters to 14 countries – including Japan, South Korea, and Malaysia—outlining new import levies ranging from 25% to 40%, set to take effect on 1st August 2025. More letters then followed.

Yet, major indices like the FTSE 100 and Nikkei 225 barely flinched, with some even posting modest gains.

So, who’s right—the president or the markets?

Trump insists tariffs are essential to redress trade imbalances and bring manufacturing back to the U.S. The EU also faces higher tariffs.

He’s floated extreme measures, including a 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals and a 50% levy on copper.

His administration argues these moves will strengthen domestic industry and reduce reliance on foreign supply chains.

However, investors seem to be betting on a familiar pattern: Trump talks tough but ultimately softens under pressure. Analysts have dubbed this the ‘TACO’ trade—Trump Always Chickens Out.

His own comments have added to the ambiguity, calling the August deadline ‘firm, but not 100% firm’.

The economic logic behind the tariffs is being questioned. Tariffs are paid by importers—often U.S. businesses and consumers—not foreign governments.

This could lead to higher prices and inflation, especially in sectors like healthcare and electronics. Some economists warn of recessionary risks for countries like Japan and South Korea.

In short, markets may be right to remain calm—for now. But if Trump follows through, the impact could be far-reaching.

With trade negotiations still in flux and only two deals (UK and Vietnam) finalised, the next few weeks will be critical. Investors may be wise not to ignore the warning signs entirely.

Whether this is brinkmanship or a genuine shift in trade policy, the stakes are high—and the clock is ticking.

NVIDIA Hits $4 trillion market cap as AI dominance drives market surge

AI ?

In a historic moment for global markets, NVIDIA has become the first publicly traded company to reach a staggering $4 trillion market capitalisation, underscoring its pivotal role in the artificial intelligence revolution.

The chipmaker’s shares climbed to an all-time high of $164 this week, fuelled by relentless investor enthusiasm for AI technologies.

Originally known for its graphics processing units (GPUs) tailored to gaming, NVIDIA has transformed into the backbone of the AI boom.

Its high-performance chips now power everything from large language models to autonomous systems, making it indispensable to tech giants like Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet.

Since the debut of ChatGPT in late 2022, NVIDIA’s stock has surged nearly 900%, outpacing both the broader market and its semiconductor peers.

The company’s meteoric rise is backed by explosive financials. In the first quarter of 2025 alone, NVIDIA reported $44.1 billion in revenue, with its data centre division contributing over 88% of that figure.

Analysts attribute this growth to the insatiable demand for AI infrastructure, with firms investing tens of billions in data centres and cloud computing.

Despite geopolitical headwinds, including export restrictions to China and tariff uncertainties, NVIDIA has demonstrated remarkable resilience.

Its valuation now exceeds the combined worth of the Canadian and Mexican stock markets and is just shy of India’s GDP. It is also larger than the UK’s GDP. Is this valuation sustainable?

As AI continues to reshape industries, from healthcare to finance, NVIDIA stands at the forefront, not just as a chipmaker, but as a symbol of technological ascendancy. Whether this dominance is sustainable remains to be seen, but for now, Wall Street has crowned its new titan.

And with AI showing no signs of slowing, NVIDIA’s ascent may be just the beginning of a new era in market leadership.

But what really is NVIDIA’s true value – is it overpriced?

Many analysts argue that NVIDIA is currently overvalued, at least by traditional metrics. For example, AlphaSpread estimates its intrinsic value at around $112.25, while its market price hovers near $158, suggesting it’s overvalued by roughly 29%.

Nvidia one-year share price chart at new high as of 9th July 2025

Nvidia one-year share price chart at new high as of 9th July 2025

Similarly, a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis from TheStreet indicates the stock may be worth 8% less than its current price.

But here’s the twist: NVIDIA isn’t just any stock. It’s the dominant force in AI hardware, with over 80% market share in data centre accelerators.

That kind of monopoly in a rapidly expanding sector makes traditional valuation models look a bit… well, quaint.

Some investors argue that its growth trajectory and pricing power justify the premium, especially with AI demand scaling across industries.

Still, others caution that the hype may be outpacing fundamentals. To justify its current valuation, NVIDIA would need to generate over $1.2 trillion in cash flow over the next 20 years—an ambitious target even for a tech titan.

So is it overpriced?

If you’re a value investor, probably yes. If you’re betting on AI transforming the world and NVIDIA staying at the centre of it, maybe not.

When will the companies investing in AI see the returns on their investment?

And NVIDIA isn’t the only AI show in town.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 hit new all-time high!

New All-time highs!

The U.S. stock market surged into July 2025 with a wave of optimism, as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both hit fresh all-time highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average continued its upward climb.

The S&P 500 closed at 6279, marking its fourth record close in five sessions, and the Nasdaq 100 soared to 22867, fueled by strength in AI and semiconductor stocks.

S&P 500 YTD chart

Nasdaq 100 YTD chart

Driving the rally was a stronger-than-expected June 2025 jobs report, which revealed 147,000 new positions added and an unemployment rate dipping to 4.1%.

This labour market resilience tempered expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut, but bolstered investor confidence in the economy’s momentum.

Tech giants like Nvidia and Microsoft led the charge, with Nvidia nearing a $4 trillion market cap amid surging demand for AI infrastructure.

Datadog spiked after being added to the S&P 500, and financials like JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs hit lifetime highs.

The Dow, while slightly trailing its tech-heavy peers, posted steady gains and now hovers near its own record territory.

With trade optimism rising and President Trump’s tax-and-spending bill passed, Wall Street enters the holiday weekend riding a wave of bullish sentiment.

Tesla’s 14% decline in vehicle deliveries reported

14% EV sales decline

Tesla reported just 384,122 vehicle deliveries in Q2 2025 – a noticeable 14% slide year-on-year, and its steepest decline on record.

While some anticipated turbulence, the results managed to slightly exceed analyst expectations, prompting a surprising 5% climb in the stock.

Tesla YTD chart

Tesla YTD chart (July 2025)

So, what’s driving this cooldown in momentum?

🇨🇳 China’s EV powerhouses: BYD alone reportedly registered over 1 million battery-electric sales, outpacing Tesla with fresher and more affordable options.

Delayed evolution: The promised $25K ‘Model Q’ has yet to appear, leaving Tesla’s aging lineup vulnerable.

⚖️ Demand vs. production imbalance: Tesla built 410,244 cars – more than it sold – indicating inventory build-up.

🗺️ Regional whiplash: European and Chinese demand wavered, though China showed signs of late-quarter recovery.

🧨 CEO controversies: Elon Musk’s high-profile political entanglements, including his stint with the DOGE department and ties to Trump – stirred public backlash and dented brand sentiment.

Still, Wall Street is keeping one eye on Tesla’s future bets: autonomous driving and robotaxis.

Despite the rough quarter, some analysts argue that the dip could mark a cyclical bottom before a strategic pivot.

RSI signals flash: U.S. stocks enter overbought territory

U.S. Companies RSI

As U.S. equity markets continue their relentless climb, a growing number of stocks are flashing warning signs through one of the most widely followed technical indicators: the Relative Strength Index (RSI).

Designed to measure momentum, RSI values above 70 typically indicate that a stock is overbought and may be due for a pullback.

As of early July 2025, several high-profile U.S. companies have RSI readings well above this threshold, suggesting that investor enthusiasm may be outpacing fundamentals.

🔍 What Is RSI?

The RSI is a momentum oscillator that ranges from 0 to 100. Readings above 70 suggest a stock is overbought, while readings below 30 indicate it may be oversold. While not a crystal ball, RSI is a useful tool for identifying potential reversals or pauses in price trends.

🚨 Top 5 Overbought U.S. Stocks (as of 1st July 2025)

CompanyTickerRSIYTD Performance
NvidiaNVDA84.3+92.5%
Super Micro ComputerSMCI82.7+108.4%
Advanced Micro DevicesAMD80.1+74.2%
Alnylam PharmaceuticalsALNY78.9+66.0%
Circle Internet GroupCIRC77.5+62.9%

These companies have benefited from the ongoing AI and biotech booms, with Nvidia and AMD riding the wave of demand for next-gen chips, while Alnylam and Circle Internet Group have surged on strong earnings and innovation in their respective sectors.

📊 RSI Snapshot: Top 10 U.S. Stocks by RSI

RankCompanyTickerRSISector
1NvidiaNVDA84.3Semiconductors
2Super Micro ComputerSMCI82.7Hardware
3AMDAMD80.1Semiconductors
4Alnylam PharmaceuticalsALNY78.9Biotech
5Circle Internet GroupCIRC77.5Internet Services
6Mereo BioPharma GroupMPH76.4Biotech
7AVITA MedicalAVH75.2Healthcare
8MicrosoftMSFT74.8Software
9Lumentum HoldingsLITE73.6Optical Tech
10WorkivaWK72.9Cloud Software

📌 What This Means for Investors

While high RSI doesn’t guarantee a drop, it does suggest caution. Stocks like Nvidia and Super Micro may continue to rise in the short term, but their elevated RSI levels imply that momentum could stall or reverse if sentiment shifts or earnings disappoint.

Investors should consider pairing RSI with other indicators – such as MACD, volume trends, and earnings outlooks – before making decisions.

For long-term holders, these signals may simply be noise. But for traders, they’re a flashing yellow light.

See: WallStreetNumbers: Advanced Stock Screener & Interactive Charts

U.S. markets surge as S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new highs

New highs U.S. markets

In a remarkable show of investor confidence, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both reached new all-time highs on 30th June 2025.

The markets were buoyed by optimism around easing inflation, resilient corporate earnings, and renewed enthusiasm for the tech sector, especially AI.

The S&P 500 climbed to a record close of 6205, while the Nasdaq soared 1.2% to finish at 22679 marking its fourth consecutive record-breaking session.

S&P 3-month chart

S&P 3 month chart

Traders pointed to stronger-than-expected economic data and dovish commentary from the Federal Reserve as catalysts that reignited appetite for risk.

Tech giants led the charge, with chipmakers and AI-related firms once again at the forefront.

Nvidia, now the world’s most valuable publicly traded company, gained over 2%, while Apple, Microsoft, and Alphabet also notched solid gains.

The technology-heavy Nasdaq has been particularly responsive to momentum in artificial intelligence and next-generation computing, driving its meteoric rise in recent months.

Nasdaq 100 3-month chart

Nasdaq 100 3-month chart

From April 2025 Trump tariff melt-down to new highs in June 2025

Beyond tech, sectors such as consumer discretionary and industrials also saw modest gains, suggesting a broadening of the rally.

Analysts now debate whether this marks the beginning of a sustainable expansion or a potential overheating of equities.

Meanwhile, Treasury yields held steady, and oil prices ticked higher, signalling confidence in continued global demand.

With earnings season on the horizon, market watchers are closely monitoring corporate guidance to gauge whether valuations can justify further upside.

For now, though, the bulls are clearly in control – and Wall Street is basking in green.

Nvidia regains top spot by market cap

Nvidia top value company again

Nvidia has once again claimed the title of the world’s most valuable publicly traded company, overtaking Microsoft with a staggering market capitalisation of $3.76 trillion.

This milestone follows a 4% surge in Nvidia’s share price, closing at an all-time high of $154.10.

The rally was fuelled by renewed investor enthusiasm for artificial intelligence. Analysts citing it as a ‘Golden Wave’ of generative AI adoption driving demand for Nvidia’s high-performance chips.

The company’s meteoric rise has been underpinned by its dominance in AI hardware, particularly its GPUs, which power everything from ChatGPT to enterprise-scale AI models.

Since bottoming out in early April 2025, Nvidia’s stock has soared more than 60%, far outpacing the broader tech market.

Founded in 1993 to produce graphics chips for gaming, Nvidia has transformed into the backbone of the AI revolution. Its accelerators are now essential infrastructure for companies like Microsoft, Meta, and Google.

Nvidia share price as of 25th June 2025 – a 3 month snapshot

Nvidia share price as of 25th June 2025 – a 3 month snapshot

Despite its rapid ascent, Nvidia’s valuation remains relatively modest compared to historical norms, trading at around 30 times projected earnings.

As the AI arms race intensifies, Nvidia’s position at the summit of global markets underscores the growing importance of its power in shaping the digital future.

China’s restriction of rare earth materials hurts

Chinas rare earth material dominance

China’s recent export restrictions on rare earth elements are sending shockwaves through multiple industries worldwide.

As the curbs continue to take effect, sectors reliant on these critical minerals—including automotive, defence, and clean energy—are beginning to feel the strain.

China controls about 60–70% of global rare earth production and nearly 90% of the refining capacity.

Even when rare earths are mined elsewhere, they’re often sent to China for processing, since few countries have the infrastructure or environmental tolerance to handle the complex and polluting refining process.

In April 2025, China introduced export controls on seven key rare earth elements and permanent magnets, citing national interests and responding to rising trade tensions—particularly with the U.S.

Automotive industry in crisis

The auto sector is among the hardest hit. Rare earth elements are essential for both combustion engines and electric vehicles, particularly in the production of magnets used in motors and batteries.

European auto suppliers have already reported production shutdowns due to dwindling inventories.

Germany’s car industry, a global powerhouse, has reportedly warned that further disruptions could bring manufacturing to a standstill.

Japan’s Nissan and Suzuki have also expressed concerns, with Suzuki reportedly halting production of its Swift model due to shortages.

Defence and technology sectors at risk

China’s dominance in rare earth refining, controlling nearly 90% of global capacity, poses a strategic challenge for defense industries.

The U.S. military relies heavily on these materials for missile guidance systems, radar technology, and advanced electronics.

With nearly 78% of defence platforms dependent on Chinese-processed rare earths, the restrictions expose vulnerabilities in national security.

Clean energy ambitions under threat

The clean energy transition depends on rare earths for wind turbines, solar panels, and electric vehicle batteries.

China’s curbs threaten global efforts to reduce carbon emissions, forcing countries to scramble for alternative sources. India’s electric vehicle sector, for instance, faces potential setbacks as manufacturers struggle to secure supplies.

As industries grapple with these disruptions, governments and corporations are urgently seeking solutions. Whether through diplomatic negotiations or investment in domestic rare earth production, the race is on to mitigate the fallout from China’s tightening grip on these critical resources.

Several countries have significant rare earth reserves and can supply these materials in high quantities.

Top rare earth materials suppliers

China – The dominant player, with 44 million metric tons of reserves.

Brazil – Holds 21 million metric tons of rare earth reserves.

Vietnam – Has 22 million metric tons, making it a rising supplier.

India – Contains 6.9 million metric tons.

Australia – A key producer with 5.7 million metric tons.

Russia – Holds 10 million metric tons.

United States – While not a leading producer, it has 1.8 million metric tons.

Greenland – An emerging supplier with 1.5 million metric tons.

China remains the largest supplier, but countries like Brazil, Vietnam, and Australia are working to expand their production to reduce reliance on Chinese exports.

Ukraine?

Ukraine reportedly has significant reserves of rare earth elements, including titanium, lithium, graphite, and uranium. These minerals are crucial for industries such as defence, aerospace, and green energy.

However, the ongoing conflict with Russia has disrupted access to many of these deposits, with some now under Russian control.

Despite these challenges, Ukraine is being considered for strategic raw material projects by the European Union, aiming to strengthen supply chains and reduce reliance on China. The country’s mineral wealth could play a key role in post-war recovery and global supply diversification

Greenland?

Greenland is emerging as a key player in the global rare earth supply chain. The European Union has recently selected Greenland for new raw material projects aimed at securing critical minerals.

The island holds significant deposits of rare earth elements, including graphite, which is essential for battery production.

However, Greenland faces challenges in developing its rare earth industry, including harsh terrain, environmental concerns, and geopolitical tensions.

The U.S. and EU are keen to reduce reliance on China, which dominates rare earth processing, and Greenland’s resources could play a crucial role in this effort.

Greenland has indicated it has little desire to be transformed into a mining territory. It could have little choice.

Canada?

Canada is emerging as a significant player in the rare earth supply chain. The country has over 15.2 million tonnes of rare earth oxide reserves, making it one of the largest known sources globally.

Recently, Canada opened its first commercial rare earth elements refinery, marking a major step toward reducing reliance on Chinese processing.

The facility, located in Saskatchewan, aims to produce 400 tonnes of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) metals per year, enough for 500,000 electric vehicles annually.

Additionally, Canada is investing in critical minerals infrastructure to unlock rare earth development in Northern Quebec and Labrador.

The government has allocated $10 million to support mining projects, including the Strange Lake Rare Earth Project, which contains globally significant quantities of dysprosium, neodymium, praseodymium, and terbium.

Rare earth materials are a necessity for our modern technological lives – big tech tells us this. The hunger for these products needs to be fed, and China, right now, does the feeding.

And the beast needs to be fed.

From Missiles to Tariffs: A desensitised stock market faces Trump’s new world

Markets desensitised to U.S. policy making

In years past, the mere hint of U.S. airstrikes or heightened geopolitical tension would send global stock markets into panic mode.

Yet, following President Trump’s re-election and his increasingly aggressive foreign policy stance, investor reactions have become notably muted.

From missile strikes on Iranian nuclear sites to an orchestrated ceasefire between Iran and Israel, markets have barely flinched. The question arises: are investors becoming desensitised to Trump’s geopolitical theatre?

Take the latest skirmish between Iran and Israel. After nearly two weeks of missile exchanges, Trump’s announcement of a ‘complete and total ceasefire’ barely nudged the S&P 500.

That calm came despite the U.S. launching pre-emptive strikes on Iranian facilities and absorbing retaliatory attacks on its military base in Qatar.

In another era, or under a different administration even, such developments might have triggered a broad risk-off sentiment. Instead, Wall Street just shrugged.

One reason may be fatigue. Trump’s approach – rife with tariffs, sanctions, and sudden reversals – has bred a kind of market immunity.

Investors, well-versed in the rhythm of Trump’s provocations, have begun treating them as background noise. His revived tariff agenda, particularly the threats aimed once again at China and EU auto imports, has likewise failed to prompt major selloffs.

Similarly, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, once a source of intense volatility, now registers as a strategic stalemate in the market’s eyes.

While Trump’s rhetoric surrounding Ukraine has shifted unpredictably, investors appear more focused on earnings, inflation data, and central bank signals than on diplomatic fallout and war!

This is not to suggest markets are indifferent to geopolitical risk, but rather that they’ve adapted. Algorithmic trading models may be increasingly geared to discount Trump’s headline-grabbing tactics, while institutional investors hedge through gold, volatility indices, or energy plays without dumping equities outright.

Critics argue this detachment is dangerous. Should a flashpoint spiral out of control, be it over Hormuz, Ukraine, or Taiwan, the slow-boiling complacency could leave portfolios badly exposed.

Still, for now, Trump’s policies are being priced in not with panic, but with complacency maybe.

The real story may not be what Trump does next, but how long the markets can continue to look away.

Trump announces he had brokered ceasefire between Israel and Iran?

Tensions between Israel and Iran reached a boiling point after 12 days of cross-border missile and drone strikes.

The situation escalated further when U.S. forces under President Trump launched targeted airstrikes on key Iranian nuclear sites, Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, prompting a direct Iranian missile response on a U.S. base in Qatar.

In a dramatic turn, President Trump announced what he called a ‘Complete and Total CEASEFIRE‘ – announced on Truth Social. According to Trump’s plan, Iran would begin the ceasefire immediately, with Israel to follow 12 hours later.

The truce would reportedly be considered complete after 24 hours if all attacks stopped.

While Trump touted the ceasefire as a triumph of ‘peace through strength’, analysts questioned the ceasefire’s enforceability – especially since missile exchanges reportedly continued despite the announcement.

Nonetheless, Trump claimed credit for halting the region’s slide into all-out war without committing to prolonged U.S. military involvement.

Critics argue Trump’s strategy relies more on military pressure and media theatrics than diplomatic engagement.

Supporters counter that his boldness forced both sides to the table. Either way, the world is watching to see whether this fragile peace endures – or erupts again in fire.

If this turns out to be a masterstroke in political brinkmanship – hats off to Trump, I guess. Whichever way you look at it, the precision U.S. strike on Iran was exactly that – precision. And, you have to take note.

Iran has been weakened, and this may even influence Russia’s war on Ukraine. Hopefully Israel with Palestine too – regardless of stock market reaction.

And that has to be a good thing!

But has Israel finished their war?

Despite all the noise regarding stock market reaction, one thing is for certain – the anxiety and worry for the people of the Middle East is unquestionable.

It’s not a happy time.

AMD Unveils Instinct MI400: is it time for AMD to challenge NVIDIA dominance?

AMD & NVIDIA chip go head-to-head

AMD has officially lifted the curtain on its next-generation AI chip, the Instinct MI400, marking a significant escalation in the battle for data centre dominance.

Set to launch in 2026, the MI400 is designed to power hyperscale AI workloads with unprecedented efficiency and performance.

Sam Altman and OpenAI have played a surprisingly hands-on role in AMD’s development of the Instinct MI400 series.

Altman appeared on stage with AMD CEO Lisa Su at the company’s ‘Advancing AI’ event, where he revealed that OpenAI had provided direct feedback during the chip’s design process.

Altman described his initial reaction to the MI400 specs as ‘totally crazy’ but expressed excitement at how close AMD has come to delivering on its ambitious goals.

He praised the MI400’s architecture – particularly its memory design – as being well-suited for both inference and training tasks.

OpenAI has already been using AMD’s MI300X chips for some workloads and is expected to adopt the MI400 series when it launches in 2026.

This collaboration is part of a broader trend: OpenAI, traditionally reliant on Nvidia GPUs via Microsoft Azure, is now diversifying its compute stack.

AMD’s open standards and cost-effective performance are clearly appealing, especially as OpenAI also explores its own chip development efforts with Broadcom.

AMD’s one-year chart snap-shot

One-year AMD chart snap-shot

So, while OpenAI isn’t ditching Nvidia entirely, its involvement with AMD signals a strategic shift—and a vote of confidence in AMD’s growing role in the AI hardware ecosystem.

At the heart of AMD’s strategy is the Helios rack-scale system, a unified architecture that allows thousands of MI400 chips to function as a single, massive compute engine.

This approach is tailored for the growing demands of large language models and generative AI, where inference speed and energy efficiency are paramount.

AMD technical power

The MI400 boasts a staggering 432GB of next-generation HBM4 memory and a bandwidth of 19.6TB/sec—more than double that of its predecessor.

With up to four Accelerated Compute Dies (XCDs) and enhanced interconnects, the chip delivers 40 PFLOPs of FP4 performance, positioning it as a formidable rival to Nvidia’s Rubin R100 GPU.

AMD’s open-source networking technology, UALink, replaces Nvidia’s proprietary NVLink, reinforcing the company’s commitment to open standards. This, combined with aggressive pricing and lower power consumption, gives AMD a compelling value proposition.

The company claims its chips can deliver 40% more AI tokens per dollar than Nvidia’s offerings.

Big tech follows AMD

OpenAI, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle are among the major players already integrating AMD’s Instinct chips into their infrastructure. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, speaking at the launch event reportedly praised the MI400’s capabilities, calling it ‘an amazing thing‘.

With the AI chip market projected to exceed $500 billion by 2028, AMD’s MI400 is more than just a product—it’s a statement of intent. As the race for AI supremacy intensifies, AMD is betting big on performance, openness, and affordability to carve out a larger share of the future.

It certainly looks like AMD is positioning the Instinct MI400 as a serious contender in the AI accelerator space – and Nvidia will be watching closely.

The MI400 doesn’t just aim to catch up; it’s designed to challenge Nvidia head-on with bold architectural shifts and aggressive performance-per-dollar metrics.

Nvidia has long held the upper hand with its CUDA software ecosystem and dominant market share, especially with the popularity of its H100 and the upcoming Rubin GPU. But AMD is playing the long game.

Nvidia 0ne-year chart snapshot

Nvidia 0ne-year chart snapshot

By offering open standards like UALink and boasting impressive specs like 432GB of HBM4 memory and 40 PFLOPs of FP4 performance, the MI400 is pushing into territory that was once Nvidia’s alone.

Whether it truly rivals Nvidia will depend on a few key factors: industry adoption, software compatibility, real-world performance under AI workloads, and AMD’s ability to scale production and support.

But with major players like OpenAI, Microsoft, and Meta already lining up to adopt the MI400.

Is now a good time to invest in AMD?

India’s Rare Earths Future: A growing contender in a strategic market

Rare Earth Elements

As the world transitions toward cleaner technologies and digital connectivity, rare earth elements (REEs) have emerged as vital components in everything from electric vehicles and wind turbines to smartphones and defence systems and of course AI.

Currently, China dominates the global supply chain, accounting for over 60% of global rare earth production and an even greater share of refining capacity.

But India, rich in untapped reserves and increasingly assertive in its industrial strategy, is positioning itself to become a major player in this crucial sector.

India possesses the world’s fifth-largest reserves of rare earths, largely located in coastal monazite sands.

For decades, however, its output has remained modest, constrained by limited infrastructure, outdated regulations, and a lack of downstream processing capabilities. That is changing.

In recent years, the Indian government has taken clear steps to ramp up domestic production and attract investment.

One significant move was allowing private and foreign players into the exploration and processing of REEs -previously controlled by a single government-run firm.

Coupled with India’s broader push to diversify supply chains away from China, this signals a shift in ambition.

India is also pursuing strategic partnerships. Collaborations with countries such as Australia and Japan – both of which have rare earth expertise and a shared desire to counterbalance Chinese dominance – are paving the way for technology transfers and joint ventures.

Moreover, India’s participation in the Quad (with the U.S., Australia, and Japan) adds a geopolitical dimension to these efforts.

Challenges remain. India still lacks the sophisticated separation and refining technologies that make rare earths commercially viable. Environmental concerns around mining also demand a careful, sustainable approach.

Rare Earth Elements table – top 10 producers

Total global reserves are estimated at approximately 131 million metric tons. See worlpopulationreview.

Yet, with incentives under the Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes, and growing demand for localised electronics and green tech manufacturing, momentum is building.

So, is India likely to become a major competitor? Not overnight. But ‘possible’ is rapidly morphing into ‘plausible.’ As the global rare earths map continues to shift—fueled by geopolitics, technological change, and strategic realignment – India is no longer on the sidelines.

Whether it becomes a global leader or a key alternative supplier, its role is poised to expand.

The world should watch closely—not just for the metals it may mine, but for the strategic leverage they may bring.

And we have Greenland and Ukraine reserves yet to be discovered?

Asia’s shift away from the U.S. Dollar gains momentum

De-dollar

The global financial landscape is undergoing a significant transformation as Asian economies accelerate their move away from the U.S. dollar.

This trend, known as de-dollarisation, is driven by a combination of geopolitical uncertainties, monetary policy shifts, and efforts to reduce reliance on the greenback in trade and investment.

The forces behind de-dollarisation

For decades, the U.S. dollar has dominated global trade and foreign exchange reserves. However, its share in global reserves has steadily declined from over 70% in 2000 to 57.8% in 2024.

This shift is particularly pronounced in Asia, where nations are actively promoting the use of local currencies to mitigate exchange rate risks and strengthen regional financial stability.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has committed to increasing local currency settlements in trade and investment as part of its Economic Community Strategic Plan for 2026-2030.

Additionally, major economies like China and India are developing alternative payment systems to bypass traditional dollar-based transactions, further reducing dependency on the greenback.

Implications for the U.S. Dollar

The dollar has faced increased volatility, with a sharp 8% decline in the dollar index since the start of 2025. Investors and policymakers are recognising that the dollar can be leveraged in trade negotiations, prompting a reassessment of portfolios overweight in U.S. assets.

While the dollar remains the world’s primary reserve currency, its dominance is being challenged. Asian economies, particularly Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, and China, hold substantial foreign assets, giving them the ability to repatriate earnings into local currencies.

The shift away from the dollar is a slow but steady process, signalling a broader transition towards a multipolar financial system.

Crypto and DeFi are playing a growing role in de-dollarisation.

Many nations, particularly within BRICS, are turning to digital assets to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar in global trade.

How crypto supports de-dollarisation

Alternative Payment Systems – Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum allow countries under U.S. sanctions to bypass traditional dollar-based financial systems.

Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) – Over 130 countries are exploring CBDCs to strengthen local currency transactions and reduce dependence on the dollar.

Stablecoins & Cross-Border Trade – Stablecoins such as USDT and USDC facilitate international payments, with daily transaction volumes exceeding $150 billion.

The bigger picture

The shift away from the dollar is not just about crypto – it’s part of a broader movement toward a multipolar financial system.

While digital assets provide alternatives, traditional financial institutions are also adapting by promoting local currency settlements

AI creates paradigm shift in computing – programming AI is like training a person

Teaching or programing?

At London Tech Week, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang made a striking statement: “The way you program an AI is like the way you program a person.” (Do we really program people or do we teach)?

This marks a fundamental shift in how we interact with artificial intelligence, moving away from traditional coding languages and towards natural human communication.

Historically, programming required specialised knowledge of languages like C++ or Python. Developers had to meticulously craft instructions for computers to follow.

Huang argues that AI has now evolved to understand and respond to human language, making programming more intuitive and accessible.

This transformation is largely driven by advancements in conversational AI models, such as ChatGPT, Gemini, and Copilot.

These systems allow users to issue commands in plain English – whether asking an AI to generate images, write a poem, or even create software code. Instead of writing complex algorithms, users can simply ask nicely, much like instructing a colleague or student.

Huang’s analogy extends beyond convenience. Just as people learn through feedback and iteration, AI models refine their responses based on user input.

If an AI-generated poem isn’t quite right, users can prompt it to improve, and it will think and adjust accordingly.

This iterative process mirrors human learning, where guidance and refinement lead to better outcomes.

The implications of this shift are profound. AI is no longer just a tool for experts – it is a great equalizer, enabling anyone to harness computing power without technical expertise.

As businesses integrate AI into their workflows, employees will need to adapt, treating AI as a collaborative partner rather than a mere machine.

This evolution in AI programming is not just about efficiency; it represents a new era where technology aligns more closely with human thought and interaction.

Trump and Musk feud – love to hate in 137 days – a billionaire brawl

Trump Musk Argue

It’s a worry – arguably the most powerful man in the world and the richest man in the world in a highly visible fallout.

Unrest and distrust at the top of U.S. government and the and in the corporate world – so what’s new?

Donald Trump and Elon Musk, once allies, have engaged in a heated public feud over a tax and spending bill. The conflict began when Musk criticised Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” calling it a “disgusting abomination” and warning it would increase the budget deficit. Trump retaliated on Truth Social, calling Musk “CRAZY” and threatening to terminate billions of dollars in government contracts for his companies.

Musk fired back on X, claiming Trump would have lost the election without his support and accusing him of being named in the unreleased Epstein files.

The spat has had financial repercussions, with Tesla’s stock plummeting over 14%, wiping out $152 billion in market value. Investors fear the fallout could impact Tesla’s regulatory environment under Trump’s administration.

Tesla 5-day chart

Tesla 5-day chart – 14% fall

Political figures have weighed in, with billionaire Bill Ackman urging the two to reconcile, while Steve Bannon suggested Trump should seize SpaceX under the Defence Production Act. Musk also polled followers on whether to create a new political party, gaining support from Mark Cuban and Andrew Yang.

It got worse

Elon Musk escalated his feud with Donald Trump by making explosive claims that Trump appears in the Epstein files, suggesting that this is why they have not been made public. Musk posted on X, “Time to drop the really big bomb: Donald Trump is in the Epstein files. That is the real reason they have not been made public.

“Have a nice day, DJT!”. He later doubled down, telling followers to “mark this post for the future” and insisting that “the truth will come out”.

Trump has denied any wrongdoing and dismissed Musk’s claims as retaliation for his tax bill. The White House press secretary called Musk’s comments “an unfortunate episode” and insisted that Trump is focused on passing his legislation.

Musk also endorsed a call for Trump’s impeachment, agreeing with a post that suggested Vice President JD Vance should replace Trump. This marks a dramatic shift, as Musk was previously a close ally of Trump and even held a government advisory role.

The feud continues to escalate, with Musk calling for the bill’s rejection and Trump defending it as a historic tax cut.

The position and authority of U.S. President Trump have been challenged. How will tariff trade negotiations and his standing with other world leaders progress from here?

I do have a couple of questions: why did Musk back Trump in the first place and, at what point in the 137 ‘love in’ days did he know about the Epstein link (if indeed there is one)?

Or did he know before?

Who to trust?

Why are investors taking up positions in short term treasury bets?

Short-term Treasury Yields

Investors are increasingly favouring short-term U.S. Treasury securities, with notable figures like Warren Buffett taking sizeable positions.

This shift is driven by concerns over economic instability, fluctuating bond yields, and government spending.

Short-term Treasuries, such as T-bills with maturities under a year, offer a safer haven compared to longer-term bonds, which are more vulnerable to interest rate changes.

As central banks navigate monetary policy adjustments, many investors prefer the flexibility of short-duration assets that minimise exposure to prolonged economic uncertainty.

One of the biggest influences in this trend is Berkshire Hathaway’s substantial stake in T-bills, which has reinforced confidence in these instruments.

Additionally, ultra-short bond ETFs like SGOV and BIL have seen significant inflows, highlighting the growing demand for liquid, low-risk investments.

Another key factor driving this strategy is concern over U.S. fiscal policy. Investors are wary of rising deficits and potential tax hikes, which could impact long-term bond stability.

By allocating funds to short-term Treasuries, they can mitigate risks while maintaining liquidity.

This surge in short-term Treasury investments reflects a broader shift in market sentiment-favouring stability and flexibility over long-term speculation.

As economic uncertainty persists, investors are likely to continue this defensive strategy.

SGOV & BIL ETFs explained

SGOV and BIL are both exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that invest in U.S. Treasury bills, offering a low-risk way to earn interest on short-term government debt.

SGOV (iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF) tracks the ICE 0-3 Month U.S. Treasury Securities Index, investing in Treasury bonds with maturities of three months or less. It launched in 2020 and is known for its low expense ratio.

BIL (SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF) follows the Bloomberg 1-3 Month U.S. Treasury Bill Index, focusing on Treasury bills with maturities between one and three months.

It has been around since 2007 and is one of the largest T-bill ETFs.

Both ETFs provide exposure to ultra-short-term government securities, making them attractive options for investors seeking stability and liquidity in uncertain markets.

Trump’s tariffs challenged in court and deemed to be illegal

U.S. tariff court ruling

A U.S. federal court has ruled that former President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs were imposed illegally, dealing a significant blow to his economic policies.

The Court of International Trade determined that Trump exceeded his authority by invoking emergency powers to justify tariffs on nearly every country.

The ruling states that the U.S. Constitution grants Congress exclusive power to regulate commerce, meaning the president cannot unilaterally impose such broad trade restrictions.

The decision immediately halted the 10% tariffs Trump had imposed on most U.S. trading partners, as well as additional levies on China, Mexico, and Canada.

The court found that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which Trump cited as justification, does not grant him the authority to implement such sweeping trade measures.

The White House swiftly filed an appeal, arguing that the tariffs were necessary to address trade imbalances and safeguard American industries.

However, businesses and state governments that challenged the tariffs welcomed the ruling, citing concerns over inflation and economic harm.

Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures 28th & 29th May 2025 after the court ruling

Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures 28th & 29th May 2025 after the court ruling

Markets responded positively to the decision, with stock futures rising and the U.S. dollar strengthening. If the ruling stands, businesses that paid the tariffs may be eligible for refunds, marking a potential shift in U.S. trade policy.

The U.S. President is expected to find a workaround after suffering a major blow to a core part of his economic agenda.

What’s going on in the U.S. bond market?

Treasury yields

The U.S. bond market is experiencing some turbulence due to rising Treasury yields and concerns over government debt.

Investors are demanding higher yields because they’re worried about the GOP’s tax-cut plans, which could lead to increased borrowing and a larger deficit.

Additionally, the recent Trump tax bill has caused Treasury bond yields to surge, as investors anticipate more government debt issuance. Moody’s has also downgraded the U.S. credit rating, adding to market jitters.

The bond market’s reaction is significant because higher yields can lead to increased borrowing costs across the economy, affecting everything from mortgages to corporate financing.

Japan

Japan’s bond market is facing significant turbulence, with yields on 40-year government bonds hitting an all-time high. This surge in yields is causing concerns about capital repatriation, as Japanese investors may start pulling funds from the U.S. and other foreign markets.

The Bank of Japan’s reduced bond purchases have contributed to this trend, leading to weaker demand for long-term government debt. Analysts warn that if Japanese investors begin moving their capital back home, it could trigger a global financial market shake-up.

Additionally, Japan’s Finance Ministry is considering reducing the issuance of super-long bonds to stabilise the market. However, recent auctions have shown weak demand, raising concerns about the effectiveness of this strategy.

Europe

The European bond market is experiencing some shifts due to falling government bond yields and easing U.S. – EU trade tensions.

German 10-year bund yields dropped by 4 basis points, reflecting increased investor confidence.

UK and French 10-year bond yields also declined by 4 basis points, while Italian bonds saw a 2 basis point dip.

Long-term UK gilts experienced the biggest movement, with 20 and 30-year yields falling by 7 basis points.

This decline in yields suggests higher demand for European government debt, possibly due to investors shifting away from U.S. assets amid concerns over U.S. fiscal health.

UK

The UK bond market is facing some challenges, with the IMF warning that it is vulnerable to sudden shocks due to a growing reliance on hedge funds and foreign investors.

30-year gilt yields have hit 5.5%, the highest in over three decades.

The Bank of England’s quantitative tightening and increased bond issuance are putting pressure on the market.

The Debt Management Office (DMO) is shifting towards short-dated debt to reduce long-term interest costs.

Additionally, the UK government has launched a new 30-year gilt offering 5.375% interest, which is attracting investor attention.