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The newly elected Labour Party will welcome this broad-based recovery as Prime Minister Keir Starmer begins his first week in office.
Preparing for a two-day session on Capitol Hill, the central bank chief stated that the economy and labour market continue to be robust, even with some recent slowdown. Powell noted a slight reduction in inflation, affirming that policymakers are determined to reduce it to their target of 2%.
“At the same time, in light of the progress made both in lowering inflation and in cooling the labour market over the past two years, elevated inflation is not the only risk we face,” he reportedly said. “Reducing policy restraint too late or too little could unduly weaken economic activity and employment.”
Sounds to me like he is paving the way for the first interest rate reduction.
The comment ties-in with the upcoming one-year period since the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) last increased the benchmark interest rates.
China’s CPI was expected to rise by 0.4% year-on-year in June, according to poll conducted by Reuters. However, the actual increase was only 0.2%. Lacklustre domestic demand has contributed to keeping inflation subdued in China, unlike major economies such as the U.S., where prices have remained elevated.
The PPI, which measures factory-gate prices, dropped by 0.8% from a year ago, aligning with expectations. This reflects the ongoing challenges faced by manufacturers and businesses.
Stripping out more volatile food and energy prices, core CPI rose by 0.6% year-on-year in June. While this is slightly slower than the 0.7% increase for the first six months of the year, it indicates a relatively stable inflation trend.
Notably, pork prices surged by 18.1% in June compared to a year ago, while beef prices fell by 13.4%.
In summary, China’s inflation remains subdued due to weak demand, even as other global economies experience higher price pressures. Policymakers will closely monitor these trends to ensure economic stability.
Note: this information is based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics and reflects the situation as of 10th July 2024.
The U.S. economy added slightly more jobs than expected in June 2024 though the unemployment rate increased, the U.S. Labor Department reported Friday.
Non-farm payrolls increased by 206,000 for the month, better than the 200,000 Dow Jones forecast though less than the downwardly revised gain of 218,000 in May, which was cut sharply from the initial estimate of 272,000.
The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.1%, matching the peak since October 2021, presenting a conundrum for Federal Reserve officials as they consider their next steps in monetary policy. Projections had indicated that the unemployment rate would remain stable at 4%.
The Nikkei 225 serves as a crucial barometer for the Japanese stock market, representing the performance of prominent companies on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It continues to stand at historically elevated levels.
This impressive achievement has prolonged the blistering rally of 2024, during which the index has reached 32 record highs. Since July 2023, the S&P 500 index has surged by more than 1000 points.
The rise in U.S. equities has been propelled by robust corporate earnings, the artificial intelligence (AI) boom, and the anticipation of interest rate reductions. Although some analysts warn that the market might be stretched too far, others are forecasting additional increases.
Many analysts have now raised their target for the S&P 500 to end the year at around 5700.
“We want to be more confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2% before we start the process of reducing or loosening policy,” he said.
While Powell acknowledges progress in inflation, he remains cautious about acting prematurely and jeopardizing the trend of decreasing prices.
Markets moved up after Powell’s comments.
Update: A Fed statement released after the market closed stated that – Fed says it’s not ready to cut rates until ‘greater confidence’ inflation is moving to 2% goal
However, core inflation, excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, remained at 2.9% from the prior month, just missing the 2.8% forecast.
The rate of price rises in services also failed to move sticking at 4.1%.
Over the last weekend of June 2024, China released its official PMI figures, with the manufacturing PMI remaining at 49.5, the same as in May 2024, indicating a second consecutive month of contraction.
On Monday 1st July 2024, Japan adjusted its first-quarter GDP figures, showing a contraction of 2.9% year-on-year, a revision from the previously reported 1.8%.
Asia markets started the second half 2024 mixed as investors assessed June business activity data from China as well as Japan’s GDP revision.
The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index witnessed a modest increase of 0.1% (seasonally adjusted) for the month and has risen 2.6% from the previous year – broadly as expected by analysts.
May 2024 experienced the lowest annual rate since March 2021, the Federal Reserve’s inflation target is 2%.
Personal income grew by 0.5% for the month, surpassing the estimated 0.4%. However, consumer spending saw a 0.2% rise, falling short of the 0.3% expected.
Data according to U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Note: PCE represents Personal Consumption Expenditures. It measures consumer spending in the United States by tracking expenditures on goods and services. The PCE price index particularly tracks variations in household living costs, serving as a primary indicator of inflation.
The yen has faced challenges, slipping beyond the 160 mark again.
Since the Bank of Japan concluded its negative interest rate policy and reportedly abandoned its yield curve control policy in March 2024, the yen has been on a consistent decline.
After this policy change, the yen breached the 150 level against the U.S. dollar and hit 160 in late April 2024, which prompted intervention by the country’s finance ministry.
The UK economy expanded more than initially thought in the first quarter of 2024, signalling a recovery from recession, according to updated official data.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that from January to March 2024, the economy experienced a growth of 0.7%, revised from the preliminary estimate of 0.6% released last month.
The Sahm Rule is a real-time evaluation tool based on monthly unemployment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Named after economist Claudia Sahm, it forecasts the onset of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) increases by 0.50% or more compared to its lowest point in the preceding 12 months.
This simple yet effective indicator helps policymakers monitor economic cycles and respond accordingly
Sahm has reportedly stated that the Fed is taking a significant risk by not implementing gradual rate cuts now. Last week, Federal Reserve officials significantly reduced their forecasts for rate cuts this year, shifting from three anticipated reductions noted in the March 2024 meeting to just one.
According to the creator of a well-established rule for predicting recessions, the Federal Reserve is risking an economic contraction by not lowering interest rates immediately.
The Bank has maintained the interest rates at 5.25% for the seventh consecutive time to combat inflation, resulting in increased mortgage repayments and higher savings rates.
The interest rates, at their peak for the past 16 years, have been sustained at 5.25%. Currently, there are indications of a shift in stance, with a growing consensus for a potential reduction in August 2024.
In the year leading up to May 2024, prices increased by 2%, a decrease from the 2.3% rise in the previous month, according to official statistics.
The economy remains a central issue in the lead-up to the general election on July 4th, with all major parties discussing strategies to manage the cost of living.
This discussion precedes the Bank of England’s upcoming decision on UK interest rates this due on 20th June 2024.
The bank is anticipated to maintain the rate at 5.25% – a peak not seen in 16 years – for the seventh consecutive meeting, with the market not expecting a reduction until August 2024.
The decline in May’s inflation rate was attributed to slower price increases for food and soft drinks, recreation and culture, and furniture and household items.
Fuel pump prices remain high.
The inflation target has been achieved – it must be time for a reduction in interest rates.
Conversely, industrial output experienced a 5.6% growth on an annual basis, falling short of the projected 6% increment. Meanwhile, fixed asset investment saw a 4% increase from the previous May, narrowly missing the predicted 4.2% growth.
Analysts had anticipated growth a levelling off following a 0.4% expansion in March 2024.
Over a longer period however, the outlook was slightly more positive, with a 0.7% increase in gross domestic product (GDP) in the three months leading up to April 2024.
The construction sector saw a 1.4% decrease, marking its third consecutive decline, and production output fell by 0.9%. However, the U.K.’s dominant service sector witnessed growth, with a 0.2% increase.
The UK had managed modest growth each month in the first quarter of the 2024 as the country emerged from a mild short technical recession.
The S&P 500 index rose by 0.85%, closing at around 5421 while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.53%, finishing at 17608.
Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached unprecedented levels and set closing records on Wednesday 12th June 2024. Conversely, the Dow Jones Industrial Average marginally declined by 0.09%, or around 35 points, to settle at 38712.
The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rates, aligning with widespread expectations. The Fed also acknowledged some progress on inflation. Modest further progress has been made toward the Committee’s 2% inflation goal and this was more than enough coupled with the recent jobs report to push U.S. markets even higher.
A tiny glimpse of the ‘2% inflation future’ was all it took to send markets on an AI led feeding frenzy to push the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to new all-time highs.
One caveat though, the Fed’s recent forecasts predict only one rate reduction this year, a decrease from the three rate cuts anticipated earlier in 2024.
It was enough to propel markets to fresh all-time highs!
Non-farm payrolls surged by 272,000 for the month – a significant increase from April’s 165,000 and surpassing the consensus forecast of 190,000.
Concurrently, the unemployment rate increased to 4%, marking the first instance it has reached this level since January 2022.
Exports increased by 7.6% in May from the previous year, surpassing the analysts’ expectations of 6% growth. Imports, however, increased by 1.8% during that time, missing forecasts of an expected 4% growth.
According to analysts’ calculations based on official data, China’s imports and exports to the U.S. and EU declined during that period. However, trade with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) increased, with a 4.1% year-on-year rise in China’s exports to the region from January to May.
China’s exports to Russia decreased, but its imports from Russia grew by 7.5%. Despite trade tensions with the U.S., China’s exports have remained robust, contributing to the country’s overall economic growth.
On Thursday, 6th June 2024, the European Central Bank announced a reduction in interest rates, a move that was widely expected, despite persistent inflationary pressures in the eurozone, which comprises 20 nations.
The central bank’s primary rate has been lowered to 3.75%, a decrease from the historic high of 4% where it has remained since September 2023.
The money markets had completely anticipated the 0.25% reduction at the June meeting. This marks the first decrease since September 2019, when the deposit rate was below zero.
Traditionally, negative economic data might be anticipated to result in falling stock prices; however, recent trends have diverged from this norm.
In the past two months, negative economic news has had a paradoxically positive effect on equities. Investors have responded well to poor economic indicators, partly due to the belief that these could lead the Federal Reserve to begin reducing interest rates.
In recent times, the S&P 500, a large-cap equity index, and the U.S. dollar have exhibited a nearly perfect correlation. As the dollar has seen a gradual decline, the stock market has conversely experienced a rise. Typically, investors flock to the security of cash, and consequently the dollar, in times of uncertainty, yet they also channel investments into stocks upon the arrival of favourable news.
Despite the upbeat trend in the stock market, real economic data has frequently fallen short of Wall Street’s predictions. The Citi Economic Surprise Index, a gauge that compares data to expectations, has been on a downward trajectory. This suggests that expectations have been surpassing the actual economic conditions, signalling that the economic situation may not be as favorable as previously thought.
The Federal Reserve methodically reviews economic indicators to influence their interest rate decisions. Typically, unfavorable economic reports might prompt the Fed to reduce rates, unless there’s an uptick in inflation. Escalating inflation generally nudges the Fed towards a tighter monetary policy.
Data concerning the U.S. labour market presented to the Fed and markets may create that ‘pivotal’ moment – it often does – markets move of Fed comments and ‘awaited’ news. Reports detailing job openings, private sector job creation, and the Bureau of Labour Statistics’ nonfarm payrolls will shed light on the economy’s condition.
If job growth remains within the ‘Goldilocks range’ (neither too strong nor too weak), it may preserve the fragile equilibrium where unfavourable economic news has paradoxically favoured stock prices, while preventing excessive gloom.
To summarize, although adverse economic news has lately been advantageous for stock markets, monitoring this precarious balance is crucial. Excessive pessimism could be a harbinger of impending difficulties, despite its current benefits.
The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index is the sum of the difference between the actual value of various economic data and their consensus forecast. If the index is greater than zero, it means that the overall economic performance is generally better than expected, and the S&P 500 has a high probability of strengthening, and vice versa.
Analysts had anticipated a 0.1% rise from the 2.4% headline figure reported in April 2024.
Core inflation, which omits the unstable effects of energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, rose to 2.9% from April’s 2.7%. Contrary to the flat reading projected by economists.
A deviation from the expected 0.25% cut at the ECB’s June 2024 meeting would significantly surprise the markets, given the strong signals from policymakers in recent weeks.
This revision reportedly came after the IMF’s routine evaluation visit to China. The institution now predicts that China’s economy will expand by 4.5% in 2025, an increase from the earlier estimate of 4.1%.
However, by 2029, the IMF expects China’s growth to slow to 3.3%, influenced by an aging demographic and a decline in productivity growth. This is a decrease from the previous medium-term growth forecast of 3.5%.
China’s economy experienced a stronger-than-anticipated growth of 5.3% in the Q1, bolstered by robust exports. Meanwhile, April’s data indicated that consumer spending continued to be weak, although there was a resurgence in industrial activity.
This suggestion is made as the UK’s economy steadily recovers from the recession caused by the pandemic, while policymakers are dealing with inflationary challenges.
The IMF’s recommendation is grounded in its assessment of the UK’s economic trajectory.
Growth Forecast
The International Monetary Fund has upgraded its growth forecast for the UK in 2024, signaling a positive outlook. It anticipates growth of 0.7% this year and 1.5% in 2025.
Inflation
The IMF anticipates that UK inflation will decline to near the Bank of England’s target of 2% and stabilise at this rate in early 2025, indicating that inflationary pressures are within manageable limits.
Soft Landing
The UK economy is said to be approaching a ‘soft landing‘ following the mild recession of the previous year. Policymakers are focused on finding a balance between fostering growth and managing inflation.
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has been closely monitoring economic indicators and inflation trends. Here’s why the IMF’s recommendation matters:
Interest Rate Peaks
The Monetary Policy Committee has indicated that interest rates might have reached their peak. The current restrictive monetary policy is having an impact on the actual economy and the dynamics of inflation.
Market Expectations
Analysts anticipate the first interest rate cut by September 2024 at the latest. Market expectations align with this projection, with the base interest rate likely to be lowered to 4% by the end of 2025.
Balancing Act
Policymakers face the delicate task of supporting economic recovery while preventing runaway inflation. The IMF’s suggestion aims to strike this balance.
Variable Rate Mortgages
If you have a variable rate mortgage, a rate cut could reduce your monthly payments. However, keep an eye on your lender’s response to any rate changes.
Fixed Rate Mortgages
Fixed-rate borrowers won’t immediately benefit from rate cuts, but they should still monitor the situation. If rates continue to fall, refinancing might become attractive.
Savings Accounts
Lower interest rates typically lead to diminished returns on savings accounts. It may be wise to diversify your investments to seek potentially higher yields in other areas.
Fixed-Term Deposit
Current fixed-term deposits will remain unaffected; however, new deposits might generate lower yields. It is advisable to carefully assess your alternatives.
The IMF’s recommendation highlights the intricate balance between fostering economic recovery and managing inflation. As the Bank of England considers its next steps, it is crucial for borrowers and savers to remain informed and adjust their financial strategies as needed.
For homeowners, investors, and savers alike, grasping the potential consequences of rate cuts is key to making well-informed choices in an ever-changing economic environment.
Disclaimer: The information provided here is based on current projections and should not be considered financial advice. It is not given as financial advice – it is for discussion and analysis only!
Consult a professional advisor for personalised recommendations.
Remember – always do your careful research first!
RESEARCH! RESEARCH! RESEARCH!
Update
The Bank of England has given its strongest hint yet that interest rates could be cut this summer. This comment was observed in a recent speech given by the deputy governor of the Bank of England.
Shoppers were deterred from the high street, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said Friday 24th May 2024.
Economists expected a smaller retail sales fall of 0.4%.
Sales volumes declined across multiple sectors, with clothing retailers, sports equipment, games and toys stores, and furniture outlets experiencing a downturn as adverse weather conditions led to a decrease in customer visits, according to the ONS.
March’s figure was revised from flat to a 0.2% decline.
Sales increased by 0.7% over the three months leading up to April, compared to the preceding three months, despite a sluggish December and holiday season. However, there was a 0.8% decline when compared with the same period last year.
Will the Bank of England (BoE) drop interest rates in June now that inflation is down to 2.3% – close to the target of 2%?