The breach involved a third-party payroll system used by the MoD
The compromised system contained names and bank details of both current and past members of the UK armed forces.
While the full extent and consequences of the breach are still under investigation, preliminary results reportedly indicate that no data was extracted during the incident.
It appears that a minimal number of addresses might have been compromised.
The Ministry of Defence (MoD) responded quickly by disconnecting the external network, which is managed by a contractor.
Affected service members will be informed as a precautionary measure and will be provided with expert advice.
Hacker’s ID not revealed
The hacker’s identity has not been revealed, but it is significant that in March, the UK and the U.S. charged China with conducting a worldwide campaign of “malicious” cyber-attacks.
These assaults targeted the Electoral Commission watchdog in 2021 and involved online “reconnaissance” of MPs’ and peers’ email accounts. The limited response to these events highlights the persistent cybersecurity challenges and the importance of constant alertness.
As the inquiry progresses, the MoD is expected to implement additional security measures to safeguard sensitive data, measures that ideally should have already been established.
UK police have dismantled a gang that provided a technology service enabling criminals to use fraudulent text messages to defraud victims
Britain’s Metropolitan Police announced on Thursday 18th April 2024 that the ‘LabHost‘ website had been utilised by 2,000 criminals to pilfer personal details from users.
The police have reportedly identified approximately 70,000 UK individuals whose details were compromised via LabHost’s websites. The websites of LabHost have been disrupted and now displays a notice indicating that the services have been seized by law enforcement.
They have arrested 37 people worldwide and are contacting victims affected by the scam.
Phishing scam
Officers say younger people who grew up with the internet were the most likely to fall for the ‘phishing’ scam.
What is ‘phishing’
‘Phishing’ is a type of social engineering attack where perpetrators trick individuals into disclosing sensitive information or downloading malware. This often entails the use of deceptive emails or messages that mimic reputable entities, luring users to input their login details on counterfeit websites.
The technology enabled scammers without technical expertise to inundate victims with deceptive messages aimed at eliciting online payments.
Authorities focused on the gang’s website, LabHost, which facilitated the despatch of these messages and steered victims towards counterfeit websites. These sites mimicked authentic online payment or shopping platforms.
ID theft
This operation allowed the perpetrators to pilfer personal identity details, including 480,000 card numbers and 64,000 PIN codes. It was referred to as ‘fullz data‘ in criminal circles, according to the police.
The exact amount of money stolen remains unknown. However, detectives estimate that the LabHost site generated close to £1 million ($1.25 million) in profits.
It has been a turbulent time at Twitter since Musk’s acquisition and the subsequent renaming of the company to X.
X is a subsidiary of X Holdings Corp., which is owned by Elon Musk. X has faced several issues and controversies since its inception, such as advertiser boycott, declining user base, staff layoffs, and more recently accusations of antisemitism and even more recently of a profane outburst levelled against X advertisers.
What a mess
Elon Musk launches attack on X advertisers in a profanity-laced outburst.
Musk has slammed advertisers that have left X, warning they will kill the social media platform. At an event in New York, he accused companies that have joined an advertising boycott of the site formerly known as Twitter of trying to blackmail him.
Musk tells X (Twitter) advertisers to go ‘f**k yourselves,’ but admits it will die without them: Despite this, Musk refused to accept responsibility for the impact of his statements on X’s ability to do business.
Instead, the billionaire insisted that if X (Twitter) went under, the blame would be entirely on the advertisers who fled as opposed to his decisions as its owner which more likely pushed them away.
His message to advertisers leaving X of: ‘Go f**k yourself’ – didn’t help matters as he admits responding to anti-Semitic post on X was one of the most foolish things he’s done on the platform.
Elon Musk is reported to have said on Wednesday 29th November 2023 that he regretted his November 15th tweet allegedly endorsing an anti-Semitic conspiracy theory.
Is the death knell of X and of a $44 billion investment?
Musk should be a force for good in the world – could that still happen?
A recent cyber-attack on CTS, a company that provides IT services to law firms and other organisations in the UK legal sector.
It was reported the cyberattack occurred on Wednesday, 22nd November 2023, and caused a widespread outage that affected dozens of law firms and homebuyers.
The cyberattack was reportedly caused by a CitrixBleed bug that has targeted other firms in recent weeks.
It is widely reported that HSBC‘s online banking system is experiencing some problems today, 24th November 2023.
According to the news reports, many customers are unable to access the app or the website or make payments.
The bank has acknowledged the issue and said it is working hard to fix it as soon as possible. Some users have also reported missing money from their accounts.
Downdetector, which tracks websites, showed more than 4000 people reported they could not access HSBC services.
‘It is impacting HSBC UK customers only – there is no impact to First Direct or M&S Bank customers’, a spokesperson for the bank said.
At the speed of AI, the story at OpenAI moves at lightning speed.
Hundreds of OpenAI employees signed a letter demanding the OpenAI board resign or face an employee exodus to Sam Altman’s new venture at Microsoft ‘imminently‘.
The board then attempted to negotiate Altman’s return, but those talks were unsuccessful.
At the touch of a button – resignation letter sent to the OpenAI board of directors
To the Board of Directors at OpenAI
OpenAI is the world’s leading AI company. We, the employees of OpenAI, have developed the best models and pushed the field to new frontiers. Our work on AI safety and governance shapes global norms. The products we built are used by millions of people around the world. Until now, the company we work for and cherish has never been in a stronger position.
The process through which you terminated Sam Altman and removed Greg Brockman from the board has jeopardized all of this work and undermined our mission and company. Your conduct has made it clear you did not have the competence to oversee OpenAI.
When we all unexpectedly learned of your decision, the leadership team of OpenAI acted swiftly to stabilize the company. They carefully listened to your concerns and tried to cooperate with you on all grounds. Despite many requests for specific facts for your allegations, you have never provided any written evidence. They also increasingly realized you were not capable of carrying out your duties, and were negotiating in bad faith.
The leadership team suggested that the most stabilizing path forward – the one that would best serve our mission, company, stakeholders, employees and the public – would be for you to resign and put in place a qualified board that could lead the company forward in stability. Leadership worked with you around the clock to find a mutually agreeable outcome. Yet within two days of your initial decision, you again replaced interim CEO Mira Murati against the best interests of the company. You also informed the leadership team that allowing the company to be destroyed “would be consistent with the mission.”
Your actions have made it obvious that you are incapable of overseeing OpenAI. We are unable to work for or with people that lack competence, judgement and care for our mission and employees. We, the undersigned, may choose to resign from OpenAI and join the newly announced Microsoft subsidiary run by Sam Altman and Greg Brockman. Microsoft has assured us that there are positions for all OpenAI employees at this new subsidiary should we choose to join. We will take this step imminently, unless all current board members resign, and the board appoints two new lead independent directors, such as Bret Taylor and Will Hurd, and reinstates Sam Altman and Greg Brockman.”
In just 5 days
Sam Altman sacked from OpenAI.
Altman appears to move to Microsoft.
OpenAI staff revolt.
No confidence in OpenAI board.
Space for staff to move to Microsoft and create new AI company under Altman’s leadership.
OpenAI mass employee resignation letter emerges.
Microsoft CEO Nadella says OpenAI governance needs to change no matter where Altman ends up.
Altman back at OpenAI after board changes.
Now, Altman is back after getting the sack.
So, is all OK at OpenAI? I asked CHATGPT the question, here is the answer…
Party politics and petty petulance – toys out the pram again at No. 10
Welcome politics at No. 10 Downing street
The phrase ‘throwing your toys out of the pram’ is a British idiom that means to behave in a childish or immature way when you are angry or frustrated. It is usually used to criticize someone who is acting unreasonably or making a fuss over something trivial.
Right now, it sums up everyday behaviour at No. 10 Downing Street.
Sam Altman, the former CEO of OpenAI, who was fired last week in a controversial board decision.
According to the latest reports, Altman is joining Microsoft to lead a new AI research team that will focus on advanced and ethical AI development.
Altman is a well-known entrepreneur and investor who has been involved in several AI-related projects.
He was one of the co-founders of OpenAI, a research organization that aims to create artificial general intelligence (AGI) that can ‘benefit humanity without causing harm’ or being controlled by a few elite players.
Leadership and ideology clash
However, Altman’s vision and style clashed with some of the board members and researchers at OpenAI, who reportedly accused him of being too ambitious, secretive, and authoritarian. They also reportedly claimed that he was pursuing a dangerous goal of creating artificial superintelligence (ASI).
The disagreements escalated when Altman announced a partnership with Microsoft in 2023, which gave Microsoft exclusive access to OpenAI’s GPT-4 Turbo model, a powerful natural language processing system that can generate realistic text on any given topic.
Some of the OpenAI staff and community members reportedly felt let-down by this deal, which they saw as a violation of OpenAI’s original mission of creating and sharing ‘AI for the common good’.
On Friday 17th November 2023, the board of OpenAI voted to remove Altman as CEO, citing irreconcilable differences and lack of trust. He was replaced by Emmett Shear, the former CEO of Twitch, who promised to restore transparency and collaboration at OpenAI.
Altman to join Microsoft
Altman did not comment on his dismissal. However, on Monday 20th November 2023, he rocked the AI world by announcing he was joining Microsoft as the head of a new AI research team.
He reportedly said that he was excited to work with Microsoft’s talented people and that he would continue to pursue his vision of creating beneficial and ethical AI for humanity.
Altman’s move to Microsoft has sparked mixed opinions from the AI community. Some have praised him for his innovation and courage, others have criticized him for his arrogance and recklessness.
There were reports over weekend suggesting employees and investors including Microsoft were pushing for Mr Altman to be reinstated. Some employees resigned in support of Altman.
Some have expressed concern about the potential impact of his new role on the future of AI development and regulation.
Where do OpenAI, Microsoft and the AI go from here?
Sam Bankman-Fried, founder of the world’s biggest cryptocurrency exchange, has been found guilty of fraud and money laundering at the end of a month-long trial in New York.
He was accused of lying to investors and customers and stealing billions of dollars from FTX, which went bankrupt in November 2022. He now faces up to 115 years in prison. The jury delivered its verdict after less than five hours of deliberations. His sentencing has been set for 28th March 2024.
Month long trial
The verdict was delivered after a month-long trial that saw three of his former associates, including his ex-girlfriend, testify against him as part of a plea deal. They revealed that Bankman-Fried used customer deposits from FTX to fund his other company, Alameda Research, as well as to buy property and make political donations. He denied the charges and claimed that he acted in good faith and made mistakes due to being overwhelmed by the rapid growth of his businesses.
It concludes a dramatic fall from grace for the 31-year-old former billionaire and one of the most public faces of the crypto industry.
The case has been seen as a major blow to the crypto industry, which has been struggling to recover from the market crash and regulatory scrutiny that followed the FTX collapse. Bankman-Fried was once one of the most prominent and influential figures in the sector, known for his philanthropy and crypto industry innovation.
His downfall has been described as the industry’s greatest cautionary tale.
Verdict
‘Sam Bankman-Fried perpetrated one of the biggest financial frauds in American history – a multibillion-dollar scheme designed to make him the king of crypto’, U.S. attorney Damian Williams said in a statement after the verdict. ‘This case has always been about lying, cheating and stealing, and we have no patience for it’.
Sam Bankman-Fried, founder of the world’s biggest cryptocurrency exchange, has been found guilty of fraud and money laundering at the end of a month-long trial in New York.
Prosecutors had accused Bankman-Fried of lying to investors and lenders and stealing billions of dollars from cryptocurrency exchange FTX, helping to precipitate its collapse. They charged him with seven counts of fraud and money laundering.
He had pleaded not guilty to all the charges, maintaining that, while he had made mistakes, he had acted in good faith.
After the verdict Bankman-Fried’s lawyer Mark Cohen said: ‘We respect the jury’s decision. But we are very disappointed with the result’.
Mr Bankman-Fried reportedly maintains his innocence and will continue to vigorously fight the charges against him.
It has been suggested Rishi Sunak and Boris Johnson have overseen biggest tax rises since the Second World War
‘Fiscal responsibility’ – code words for ‘cock-up!’
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak have stressed the need for ‘fiscal responsibility’ amid still-high inflation and rising debt costs.
According to the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), by the time of the next general election, taxes will likely have risen to around 37% of national income, which is the highest level since comparable records began in the 1950’s.
The IFS said that this is equivalent to around £3,500 more per household, but it will not be shared equally across income group.
Health and Welfare massive tax burden
The IFS also said that this is not a direct consequence of the pandemic, but rather a result of decisions to increase government spending on health and welfare, and some unwinding of austerity. They predicted that this parliament would mark a decisive and permanent shift to a higher-tax economy.
Other think tanks, such as the Nuffield Foundation, have echoed this view and said that there will be strong pressure in future parliaments to raise taxes further to meet growing demand for public services.
Dissatisfied
Some Conservative MPs have expressed their dissatisfaction with the lack of tax cuts from the government, as they believe that reducing taxes is a key part of the party’s philosophy. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak have stressed the need for fiscal responsibility amid still-high inflation and rising debt costs.
Lurching from one problem to the next
We saw this type of response under George Osborne during the ‘austerity’ period after the financial crisis of 2008. And now again, after Brexit and the pandemic. They were all Conservative governments.
Hunt has reportedly said it would be virtually impossible to cut taxes at the moment – no surprise there then!
Labour has criticised the government for clobbering the general public with tax rises and failing to deliver growth and wages.
The stock market can be very volatile and unpredictable, especially in times of uncertainty and crisis. It seems like investors are reacting to every piece of news, whether it’s good or bad, with fear and panic.
According to some analysts, the main factors that are driving the market turmoil are the rising bond yields, the slowing global growth, the ongoing trade tensions, and the potential fiscal risks. These issues have created a lot of uncertainty and anxiety among market participants, who are looking for signs of stability and direction.
Long-term investing makes sense
Some experts suggest that the best way to deal with the market volatility is to have a long-term perspective, diversify your portfolio, and avoid emotional decisions. They also advise to stay informed, but not to overreact to every headline or rumour.
Remember that the market has gone through many ups and downs in the past and has always recovered over time.
”I’d like to buy a new car please’. ‘Yes, of course… do you want a… gas, coal, wood, petrol, diesel, vegetable oil, virgin oil, hydrogen, electric, hybrid, pedal, jet, or rice powered one?” ‘Umm, I think I’ll leave it for now thank you’.
We just don’t have the funds, do we?
UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is reportedly planning to water down some of Britain’s climate commitments, saying the country must fight climate change without penalising workers and consumers.
Sunak issued a statement Tuesday in response to a BBC report saying the prime minister is considering extending deadlines for bans on new petrol and diesel cars – currently due in 2030 —- and on new natural-gas home heating.
The news drew dismay from environmental groups, opposition parties and some members of Sunak’s Conservative Party. It broke as senior politicians from the U.K. and around the world gather at the United Nations General Assembly in New York, where Biden and Yellen have placed climate high on the agenda.
Senior Tories who have championed net zero policies are reportedly furious at Sunak’s plans to delay or water down green measures. They warn that the decision will cost the U.K. jobs, inward investment and future economic growth that could have been theirs by committing to the industries of the future.
We won’t save the UK by bankrupting its people – Braverman
Home Secretary Suella Braverman says she backs Rishi Sunak’s expected shift on how the UK gets to net zero carbon emissions.
‘We’re not going to save the country by bankrupting the British people,’ she told BBC Breakfast.
It must be true, I’ve just seen it on the news. Is the UK broke? Is this the real reason for the climate roll-back?
‘We’re not going to save the country by bankrupting the British people’.
I for one am very confused??
Does the UK have the money? Is it a too big-a-burden for the UK tax payer? Can the UK generate enough ‘POWER’ from renewables? The UK needs fossil fuels?
Most of the world still needs fossil fuels!
Are we really ready to switch yet? Renewables and fossil fuels will have to work hand-in-hand for some time yet.
Consultants and junior doctors in England are holding their first joint strike in the history of the NHS.
Waiting list
The latest data from NHS England, states the number of people waiting to start routine hospital treatment is at a record high of 7.68 million at the end of July 2023. This is up from 7.57 million in June 2023 and the highest since records began in August 2007.
The waiting list has increased by more than 3 million since February 2020, the last full month before the start of the pandemic. The NHS is facing many different challenges due to the impact of Covid-19 on its services, staff and resources. This data suggests that the waiting list was already at 4 million even before the pandemic hit.
The latest strike action is a major factor now contributing to the NHS waiting list. Some reports suggest that over 850,000 routine operations and procedures have been cancelled so far this year, 2023 due to strike action alone.
Factors that may have contributed to the historical rise in the waiting list
The suspension or reduction of non-urgent care during the peak of the pandemic to free up capacity for Covid-19 patients.
The ongoing infection prevention and control measures that limit the number of patients that can be treated safely in hospitals.
NHS Strike action again, with nearly 8 million waiting in the queue
The staff shortages and burnout that affect the availability and productivity of the workforce.
The increased demand for health services as people seek help for conditions that were delayed or worsened by the pandemic.
Strike action.
The NHS is working hard to tackle the backlog and improve access to care for patients
Increasing funding and capacity for elcare, such as by opening more operating theatres, expanding community services and using the independent sector.
Implementing new models of care, such as virtual consultations, digital triage and shared decision making, to reduce unnecessary referrals and appointments.
Prioritising patients based on clinical urgency and need, rather than waiting time alone, to ensure that those who would benefit most from treatment are seen first.
Supporting staff wellbeing and retention, such as by offering flexible working, training and development opportunities and mental health support.
What about health education?
Government action
The government has also pledged to invest an extra £36 billion over the next three years to help the NHS recover from the pandemic and reform social care. However, some experts have warned that this may not be enough to address the underlying issues that affect the NHS performance and quality, such as workforce planning, public health funding and health inequalities.
How did it get so bad?
Lack of money or management failures? It has to one of these two. Throwing funds at an already badly managed ‘business’ will just amplify the problem allowing even more waste. And as the ‘system’ tackles the problem, more and more people will needlessly continue to suffer.
Fix our health service by fixing the people first!
Flights at Gatwick Airport were cancelled, delayed or diverted at short notice on Thursday 14th September 2023 due to a shortage of air traffic controllers.
Gatwick confirmed some cancellations, while the website FlightRadar24 said hundreds of flights in and out of the airport were delayed.
The National Air Traffic Services (Nats) apologised for its staffing shortages.
Gatwick Airport said it expected a normal service on Friday, 15th September 2023.
EasyJet expressed frustration at Thursday’s delays and cancellations, while Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary called on Nats’ boss to resign.
Mr O’Leary reportedly said: ‘It is unacceptable that more flights and hundreds of passengers are suffering delays to/from Gatwick Airport due to Nats CEO, Martin Rolfe’s blatant failure to adequately staff UK ATC’.
‘Airlines are paying millions of pounds to Nats each and every year and should not have to see their passengers suffer avoidable delays due to UK ATC staff shortages’.
Update
Gatwick Airport said it was ‘operating as normal’ on Friday after a shortage of air traffic controllers caused disruption to flights overnight on Thursday, 14th September 2023.
CLOSED: ‘How am I meant to get a decent education’?
School and building closures are disrupting our children’s education in the UK. The issues range from asbestos contamination, building material failures, Covid closures and teacher strikes. What the hell?
Yet more strike action continues to create chaos for travellers
Much of the UK will have no train services on Friday 1st Septemebr 2023 as the latest major strike action takes place.
Members of Aslef, the train drivers’ union, who work at more than a dozen train companies, have walked out and have refused to work.
Up to 20,000 RMT union members at 14 operators will also strike on Saturday in a long-running dispute
Meanwhile, a consultation closing most ticket offices in England ends.
Ticket office closures
Unions and disability groups have also taken action against other proposed working practices in the industry, such as ticket office closures.
Currently, nearly 300 stations in England run by train companies with Department for Transport contracts have a full-time staffed ticket office – 708 are staffed part-time. Under the proposals, most would close.
‘What’s the point in HS2 if there is no one to run it’? ‘Beats me… guess we’re stuck with it!’
Ongoing dispute
The UK train strikes are part of an ongoing dispute between the rail unions and the train operators over pay and conditions.
ASLEF members at 16 rail operators will strike again on Friday, 1st September 2023 and Saturday, 2nd September 2023.
‘What year is it? Strike action continues to hold inflation higher. Been here too many times before’.
RMT members at 14 train companies will strike again on 2nd September 2023. This will severely affect the timetables.
Pay dispute and working practices
The rail unions are demanding a pay rise that reflects the rising cost of living, as well as job security and improved working conditions. The train operators say they need to make changes to the ways of working in order to save money and improve efficiency, especially after the pandemic hit their finances hard.
The Rail Delivery Group, which represents the train operators, has offered a 5% pay rise for 2022, but the unions have rejected it as insufficient and conditional on reforms they oppose.
The train strikes have caused significant disruption and frustration for millions of passengers, especially during the peak summer holiday season. The government has urged both sides to resume talks and find a resolution
An apparent ‘technical issue’ halts flights to and from UK as the UK National Air Traffic Services control system (NATS) goes offline!
Holidaymakers are stuck all over the UK and abroad, with the National Air Traffic Services (NATS) saying it had applied restrictions to traffic flow. Passengers have been advised to check if their flight has been affected on one of the biggest UK travel days of the year.
National Air Traffic System
NATS reportedly apologised for the fault just after midday on bank holiday Monday 28th August 2023, before it announced at 15:15 BST that it had identified and remedied the issue that was affecting its ‘ability to automatically process flight plans’. We don’t yet know what caused the failure. NATS added that engineers would be monitoring the system’s performance as it returns to normal.
NATS had earlier stressed that ‘UK airspace was not closed, we have had to apply air traffic flow restrictions which ensures we can maintain safety’.
Several airports across the UK, and most airlines have all warned passengers of delays or cancellations to flights.
How fragile are the infrastructures systems in the UK?
‘Why travel when you can stay at the airport free of charge’!?- ‘It wasn’t that long ago UK airports were brought to a standstill through strikes and border control issues. C’mon UK Plc… get your act together’!
A technical issue that affected the Bank of Ireland’s online banking services allowed some customers to withdraw or transfer more money than they had in their accounts.
The glitch reportedly also added €1,000 to some accounts without explanation. This led to large crowds forming at ATMs across the country, hoping to take advantage of the error.
Some reports suggest that the police were called to calm some situations as some ATMs ran out of cash. The bank has since fixed the problem and warned customers that any excess money they withdrew or transferred will be debited from their accounts.
The bank also apologized for the disruption and urged customers who may face financial difficulties due to overdrawing on their accounts to contact them.
Questions remain – how or even why did this happen?
‘Bank error allowed people to withdraw money from their accounts they didn’t have’.
The Bank of England’s forecasting, which has a major impact on the UK economy, is being reviewed and has been criticised.
After the Bank raised interest rates for a 14th time in a row in an effort to slow price rises in Augts 2023, officials have predicted inflation to fall from the current rate of 7.9%, to ‘around 5%‘ by the end of the year. The Bank puts rates up when they are concerned that too much spending will send prices spiralling.
So, in light of its estimating techniques being challenged, how much faith should we put in ‘5% by Christmas’?
For the last two years, the Bank of England has been underestimating the likely rate of inflation in the short term. MPs have been critical of the Bank’s forecast, and its officials have acknowledged they have got some judgements wrong in their forecasting.
The Central Bank has also announced a review into how it makes forecasts.
This was one of the questions put to the Bank of England governor
Mr Baron:Good morning, everyone. In looking at the bank rate going forward, some of us, it is fair to say, have long believed that central banks, including the Bank of England, have been well behind the curve with regard to inflation. As the Chair has said, forecasting has been awry. The Bank of England is one among others that has been too slow in raising interest rates, allowing inflation to mushroom well above the 2% target.
I have put it as strongly as suggesting that it has been a woeful neglect of duty. It is causing real pain out there for people and businesses. We should always remember, as we sit in our, sometimes, white ivory towers, having these debates, that we are talking about people’s lives and businesses that are having to grapple with double-digit inflation and interest rates perhaps going up too quickly. I think that you get it, but it is useful to remind ourselves of that.
Why should the public have confidence in your ability to get it right going forward? What lessons do you think that you have learned? What are you going to do differently? I am not hearing a satisfactory answer to that...
See the full report here – be prepared, it’s an acquired taste and a long read…
More wrong than right
However, some critics have argued that the BoE’s forecasts are often too optimistic or pessimistic, and that they fail to capture the impact of major shocks or structural changes in the economy. For example, the BoE was widely criticised for underestimating the severity of the 2008 financial crisis and overestimating the negative effects of Brexit on the economy. Some have also questioned the usefulness of the BoE’s forecasts for guiding monetary policy decisions, as they may be influenced by political or psychological factors.
Therefore, it may be wise to take the BoE’s forecasts with a grain of salt, and not to rely on them too much for making economic or financial decisions. The BoE’s forecasts are not useless, but they are not infallible either. They are one of many sources of information and analysis that can help us understand the state and prospects of the UK economy, but they should not be treated as gospel truth.
The Bank of England has been wrong with too many forecasts, so why bother? Target 2%, actual above 10%!
The Bank of England (BoE) announced another increase in its base rate, from 5% to 5.25%, the highest level in over 15 years as of 3rd August 2023. This is the 14th consecutive rise since December 2021, when the BoE started to tighten monetary policy in response to rising inflation.
The Bank said that inflation, which fell to 7.9% in June, remained well above its 2% target and that further action was needed to bring it down. It also cited the risks posed by the global economic situation, especially the conflict in Ukraine and the slowdown in China.
Affect on borrowers
The rate hike will affect millions of borrowers and savers across the UK. Fixed-rate mortgages will not change until the end of their term, but new deals will be hit borrowers hard. Savers may see some benefit from higher interest rates, but only if banks and building societies pass on the increase, which they are slow to do.
Bear in mind that for the past 15 years many have benefitted from ultra low interest rates and cheap money, this is not the ‘norm’. And now, as more ‘normal’ interest rates return it will initially disrupt financial stability for some, and it will be difficult for many for a time. But money has been cheap and mortgages have always been the cheapest way to borrow long term and that is still the case – even if it doesn’t feel like it right now.
Expected
The Bank of England’s decision was widely expected by market analysts, but some have warned that further rate rises could damage the UK economy, which is already showing signs of weakness. House prices are falling, manufacturing activity is contracting and consumer confidence is low.
The prime minister, Rishi Sunak, said he was disappointed that inflation was not falling faster, but claimed that he was making progress and that there was ‘light at the end of the tunnel‘.
And a train too if he isn’t careful!
UK has the highest interest rate in the G7
Interest rates have been increasing across the world in recent months.
The Bank of England’s latest rate hike means the UK now has the highest rates in the G7 – a group of the world’s seven largest so-called ‘advanced’ economies.
That’s higher than France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Canada and the U.S.
If you think the UK’s got it bad, spare a thought for these countries where interest rates are rampant
The party-gate scandal lead to SERVING members of the UK government being fined, including the then prime minster (since sacked by the party) – and the then chancellor of the exchequer (now our serving prime minister).
British Gas owner Centrica and Shell see profits soar as bills rise.
Profit for the six months ending in June 2023 for British Gas owner Centrica rose to around £1.34bn from £262m a year earlier. The rise in profits came from the company’s nuclear and oil and gas business, rather than from the British Gas energy supply business which performed much worse. The average annual British Gas profit has been £584m in recent years.
Profit increase down to Ofgem ‘tweak’
However, the profit boom is surprisingly down to a ‘tweak’ to the regulator Ofgem’s energy price cap that allows the supplier to recover elements of the costs of supplying its 10 million customers during the energy crisis.
The supplier’s current profit highs are likely to upset consumer groups that have campaigned against the supplier’s treatment of vulnerable energy customers as record energy market prices forced millions into fuel poverty. Some have called the profit making ‘legalised robbery’, and demanded to bring energy into public ownership.
Dividend plans
Centrica plans to raise its interim dividend by around a third but remarks that its underlying profitability will ease significantly in the second half of the year. Energy firms saw their profit margins hit last year when wholesale prices surged in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Wholesale prices also jumped as th UK emerged from the dark cloud Covid as markets undicated that the UK was ill prepared for the enconomic recovery. Brexit blues didn’t help either.
The energy price cap remains £1,000 above its pre-pandemic average, despite oil and natural gas costs easing significantly. It is predicted by industry ‘experts’ to remain around the £2,000 a year average for the coming winter months, maintaining excessive pressure on household budgets.
Some ‘windfall’ tax recovery, over the years will apparently go back to ‘society’, British Gas says.
Centrica chief executive reportedly said that a lot of the firm’s profits were ‘going back into society’.
‘I know it’s difficult to see the word profits, or dividends, or similar words when people are having a tough time. I’m very conscious of this,’ he reportedly said.
Windfall
‘Bear in mind, over the next couple of years we are expecting to pay a windfall tax of ‘probably‘ well over £600m on our UK gas business off the back of the profits that we’re seeing, so a lot of this is going back into society.’
A contentious thought
A business needs to make profits otherwise there is no business. It exits to make a profit and to supply a service or product – but it is about how that business makes its profit, isn’t it?
Token windfall tax temporarily slapped on by the UK government is only payable on UK profits. Oil and gas recovery companies will only pay a tax windfall on UK related profits not on overseas returns!
Profits from fossil fuel recovery invested in greener energy for the future – that’s a topic for another article.
