U.S. job gains reached 272,000 in May 2024 – exceeding expectations of 190,000

U.S. jobs

The U.S. economy exceeded job growth expectations in May 2024, alleviating concerns of a labour market downturn but potentially diminishing the Federal Reserve’s motivation to cut interest rates.

Non-farm payrolls surged by 272,000 for the month – a significant increase from April’s 165,000 and surpassing the consensus forecast of 190,000.

Concurrently, the unemployment rate increased to 4%, marking the first instance it has reached this level since January 2022.

Is the diamond industry ‘in trouble’ as lab-grown gems gain market share?

Lab diamonds

The demand for diamonds has declined as its allure fades in a key consumer market, China.

“Diamonds don’t really fit in anymore despite the strong legacy of De Beers under Anglo,” independent diamond industry analyst Paul Zimnisky reportedly said.

According to Zimnisky’s rough diamond index, diamond prices have decreased by 5.7% this year, marking a decline of over 30% from their peak in 2022.

Lab-grown diamonds, potentially up to 85% less expensive than natural ones, are created in a controlled environment using high pressure and heat to mimic the formation of natural diamonds in the Earth’s mantle.

Sales of lab-grown diamonds have increased from a mere 2% of the global diamond jewellery market in 2017 to 18.4% in 2023, as reported by Zimnisky.

A fall in marriage rates as well as growing popularity for gold and lab-grown gems all drove down Chinese demand for diamonds, according to market research firm Daxue Consulting.

The lifting of pandemic restrictions has led consumers to redirect their spending towards travel experiences rather than diamond products.

The preference for lab-grown diamonds plays a critical role in driving down prices of natural diamonds.

Is this German chipmaker about to gain more traction in the AI race

Ai microchip

While Nvidia continues to dominate the AI chip market headlines, Infineon, a German semiconductor company, is also making waves.

Infineon is capitalizing on the AI surge, aiming to generate billions in revenue through the sale of premium chips.

As AI applications proliferate, encompassing data centre servers and integrated chipsets for PCs and mobile devices, the demand for AI chips is skyrocketing. This trend has only one direction, and that is up.

Infineon is certainly one to watch – it may just become the next major player in the industry.

Others to watch: ARM Holdings, AMD and Intel

China’s exports up by 7.6% in May – more than expected

China exports increase

China’s exports in May increased more than anticipated, whereas imports fell short of expectations, according to customs data released on Friday 7th May 2024.

Exports increased by 7.6% in May from the previous year, surpassing the analysts’ expectations of 6% growth. Imports, however, increased by 1.8% during that time, missing forecasts of an expected 4% growth.

According to analysts’ calculations based on official data, China’s imports and exports to the U.S. and EU declined during that period. However, trade with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) increased, with a 4.1% year-on-year rise in China’s exports to the region from January to May.

China’s exports to Russia decreased, but its imports from Russia grew by 7.5%. Despite trade tensions with the U.S., China’s exports have remained robust, contributing to the country’s overall economic growth.

European Central Bank (ECB) cuts interest rate by 0.25% to 3.75%

On Thursday, 6th June 2024, the European Central Bank announced a reduction in interest rates, a move that was widely expected, despite persistent inflationary pressures in the eurozone, which comprises 20 nations.

The central bank’s primary rate has been lowered to 3.75%, a decrease from the historic high of 4% where it has remained since September 2023.

The money markets had completely anticipated the 0.25% reduction at the June meeting. This marks the first decrease since September 2019, when the deposit rate was below zero.

Nvidia $3 trillion market cap propels S&P 500 and Nasdaq to new all-time highs

Nvidia at $3 trillion market cap

The S&P 500 reached a new high as Nvidia surpassed the $3 trillion mark for the first time, and the anticipation of an interest rate cut grew due to softer-than-expected job data.

S&P 500 all-time high as of 5th June 2024

S&P 500 all-time high as of 5th June 2024

Similarly, the Nasdaq 100 and Nasdaq Composite achieved new record highs

Nasdaq 100 as of 5th June 2024
Nasdaq Comp as of 5th June 2024

AI boom catapults Nvidia passed Apple’s market cap’ valuation

Artificial intelligence (AI) chipmaker Nvidia passed Apple’s market cap’ to become the world’s second most valuable company after Microsoft.

Nvidia’s shares have surged 24% following its impressive earnings report in May, in contrast to Apple’s shares, which have increased by only 5% this year amid a slowdown in sales growth in recent months.

Nvidia one year share price as of 5th June 2024

Nvidia one year share price as of 5th June 2024

Nvidia Market Cap at $3.01 trillion as of 5th June 2024

Nvidia £3.01 trillion market cap’

Banknotes with King Charles III enter circulation for the first time

King Charles on a Five Pound Note
Banknotes featuring a portrait of King Charles III entered circulation on Wednesday 5th June 2024.

Banknotes featuring a portrait of King Charles III entered circulation on Wednesday 5th June 2024.

Charles’s portrait will be featured on the front of the £5, £10, £20, and £50 banknotes, visible through the notes’ transparent security window. He is only the second monarch to appear on British banknotes, following Queen Elizabeth II.

Currently, there are more than 4.6 billion Bank of England notes in circulation, with a combined value of around £82 billion.

Bank of England

Little know company Kneron launches latest AI chips – backed by Qualcomm

AI chip

Kneron, a startup specializing in artificial intelligence chips, unveiled its latest products on Wednesday 4th June 2024.

The company aims to exploit the growing world-wide interest in AI and provide an alternative to industry heavyweights such as Nvidia and AMD.

The company, headquartered in Taiwan and supported by American semiconductor leader Qualcomm and major iPhone assembler Foxconn, introduced the KNEO 330, its second-generation ‘edge GPT’ server.

GPT, short for generative pre-trained transformer, is an AI algorithm trained on vast datasets capable of generating text and images, with OpenAI’s ChatGPT being the world leader right now.

Intel unveils new AI chips as it seeks to reclaim market share

Ai microchip

Intel announced its new Xeon 6 processors at the Computex tech conference in Taiwan on Tuesday 4th June 2024.

This announcement coincides with the recent launches of new artificial intelligence chips by rivals Nvidia and AMD on Sunday and Monday 2nd and 3rd June 2024 – as they compete for dominance in the rapidly growing industry.

Intel is making efforts to catch up with Nvidia and AMD, having been relatively absent from the AI surge that led tech giants such as Meta, Microsoft, and Google to purchase a significant number of Nvidia chips.

This comes half a year after Intel’s release of its 5th Gen Intel Xeon processors for data centre workloads and a couple of months following the announcement of the Gaudi 3 processor for AI model training and deployment.

Intel also disclosed that the Gaudi 2 and Gaudi 3 AI accelerators are priced lower than those of its competitors.

Furthermore, Intel shared architectural details of its forthcoming Lunar Lake processors, aimed at expanding the AI PC category. These processors, slated for release in the third quarter, are set to rival Nvidia’s and AMD’s offerings tailored for AI PCs.

While Nvidia and AMD focus on chip design, Intel stands out by both designing and manufacturing its chips. Nevertheless, Intel’s foundry business has faced challenges, with its operating loss widening to $7 billion in 2023 compared to the previous year.

Cisco’s ThousandEyes has unveiled an AI product designed to predict and rectify internet outages

AI net

ThousandEyes, Cisco’s internet monitoring division, has introduced a new suite of AI-driven features known as Digital Experience Assurance, or DXA, on Tuesday 4th June 2024.

The firm asserts that this new AI technology will allow customers to not only monitor but also automatically address issues affecting network quality.

Describing itself as the ‘Google Maps’ of the internet, Cisco ThousandEyes offers a comprehensive, end-to-end perspective of every user and application across all networks.

Established 15 years prior, the company has been heavily investing in AI technology in recent years.

ThousandEyes is now implementing significant AI-centric modifications to its platform, which are designed to enhance its clients’ oversight of network quality and robustness.

Bad economic news can be good for stocks

Bad news and good news

Bad economic news appears to have had an interesting impact on the stock market recently.

Traditionally, negative economic data might be anticipated to result in falling stock prices; however, recent trends have diverged from this norm.

News trend

In the past two months, negative economic news has had a paradoxically positive effect on equities. Investors have responded well to poor economic indicators, partly due to the belief that these could lead the Federal Reserve to begin reducing interest rates.

Dollar and the stock market

In recent times, the S&P 500, a large-cap equity index, and the U.S. dollar have exhibited a nearly perfect correlation. As the dollar has seen a gradual decline, the stock market has conversely experienced a rise. Typically, investors flock to the security of cash, and consequently the dollar, in times of uncertainty, yet they also channel investments into stocks upon the arrival of favourable news.

Economic data

Despite the upbeat trend in the stock market, real economic data has frequently fallen short of Wall Street’s predictions. The Citi Economic Surprise Index, a gauge that compares data to expectations, has been on a downward trajectory. This suggests that expectations have been surpassing the actual economic conditions, signalling that the economic situation may not be as favorable as previously thought.

Dilemma for the Fed

The Federal Reserve methodically reviews economic indicators to influence their interest rate decisions. Typically, unfavorable economic reports might prompt the Fed to reduce rates, unless there’s an uptick in inflation. Escalating inflation generally nudges the Fed towards a tighter monetary policy.

Monthly data roll-out

Data concerning the U.S. labour market presented to the Fed and markets may create that ‘pivotal’ moment – it often does – markets move of Fed comments and ‘awaited’ news. Reports detailing job openings, private sector job creation, and the Bureau of Labour Statistics’ nonfarm payrolls will shed light on the economy’s condition.

If job growth remains within the ‘Goldilocks range’ (neither too strong nor too weak), it may preserve the fragile equilibrium where unfavourable economic news has paradoxically favoured stock prices, while preventing excessive gloom.

Conclusion

To summarize, although adverse economic news has lately been advantageous for stock markets, monitoring this precarious balance is crucial. Excessive pessimism could be a harbinger of impending difficulties, despite its current benefits.

Note about Citigroup Economic Surprise Index

The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index is the sum of the difference between the actual value of various economic data and their consensus forecast. If the index is greater than zero, it means that the overall economic performance is generally better than expected, and the S&P 500 has a high probability of strengthening, and vice versa.

Bitcoin miners rotate millions into AI – but why?

Bitcoin mining

Bitcoin miners have been diversifying operations into artificial intelligence (AI) due to several key factors.

Since Bitcoin halving, miners have been searching for more lucrative income streams as AI and crypto industries collide.

Revenue shift

The revenue from crypto mining, especially Bitcoin, has significantly decreased in recent months. After the ‘Bitcoin halving’ event in April 2024, rewards earned by Bitcoin miners were cut by 50%. As a result, miners have been seeking alternative revenue streams.

AI boom

Following the unveiling of ChatGPT by OpenAI in November 2022, there has been a significant increase in the demand for AI computation and infrastructure. This surge has led to a flurry of investments in AI models and startups, presenting miners with new opportunities to transition into the AI sector.

Energy access

Bitcoin miners are progressively turning to ‘stranded energy site’s – these are locations with surplus or untapped energy for mining operations. At the same time, they are channelling investments into AI at more stable sites. This strategic move enables them to leverage the potentially higher returns from AI.

Core Scientific

Core Scientific, a Bitcoin mining company, has recently entered into a 12-year agreement with cloud provider CoreWeave to supply infrastructure for AI applications. This partnership is anticipated to generate in excess of $3.5 billion in revenue over the duration of the contract. CoreWeave, supported by Nvidia, offers rental of graphics processing units (GPUs) essential for AI model training.

In conclusion, Bitcoin miners are increasingly adopting AI to adjust to the evolving market dynamics and to uncover new revenue streams beyond conventional mining. The merging of AI and the cryptocurrency industry offers promising prospects for both fields.

AMD announces new chips amid intensifying AI competition

Artificial Intelligence chips

AMD announced new artificial intelligence chips on Monday 3rd June 2024, aiming to position itself as a leader in the market alongside competitors such as Nvidia and Intel.

“AI is our number one priority and we’re at the beginning of an incredibly exciting time for the industry as AI transforms virtually every business, improves our quality of life, and reshapes every part of the computing market,” chair and CEO Lisa Su reportedly commented during the Computex tech conference.

The company unveiled the Ryzen AI 300 series for next-generation AI laptops. The line is anticipated to compete directly with Intel’s upcoming Lunar Lake and Qualcomm’s Snapdragon X. And in partnership with Microsoft, these new AI chips will power laptops equipped with the tech giant’s AI chatbot Copilot.

AMD has unveiled the new Ryzen 9000 series for desktops, inferred as ‘the world’s fastest consumer PC processors’ for gaming and content creation.

The series is due for release in July 2024, following closely on the heels of AMD’s April announcement of new processors capable of running AI workloads – the Ryzen Pro 8040 for laptops and the Ryzen Pro 8000 for desktops.

AMD one year chart

AMD one year chart

Nvidia announces new AI chips

AI

Nvidia has revealed its latest generation of AI chips, coming just months after the release of its preceding model.

This rapid succession underscores the intense competition within the AI chip market and Nvidia’s relentless effort to maintain its leading position.

CEO Jensen Huang has now committed to unveiling new AI chip technology annually, accelerating the company’s prior biannual pace. The latest AI chip architecture, named ‘Rubin,’ is set to follow the ‘Blackwell’ model announced in March 2024, which is currently in production and anticipated to be delivered to customers the latter part of 2024.

Huang’s unveiling of the Rubin has seemingly hastened Nvidia’s already rapid AI chip development.

Nvidia has committed to launching new AI chip designs annually, a cadence Huang reportedly referred to as a ‘one-year rhythm‘ during his Sunday 2nd June 2024 announcement. Previously, the company was committed to updating its chips every two years. But such is the speed and fierce competition of AI development, that original decision has become quickly out-dated.

The swift transition from Blackwell to Rubin, taking less than three months, highlights the intense competition in the AI chip market and Nvidia’s race to maintain its leading position.

AMD and Intel are two major competitors playing catch-up in the AI race.

Nvidia one year share chart

Nvidia one year share chart